美國其實也麵臨人口問題。
美國高中畢業生人數預計2025年達到最高峰,然後
An 11-year downward trend from 2026 to 2037 is likely, with 3.52M high school graduates predicted in 2037. That would represent a -10.4% decrease from 2026 to 2037, dropping production of high school graduates to its lowest levels since 2015.
這個是在全國範圍內的,各個地區都在減少,東北部更加明顯。
The number of new high school graduates in New England is expected to shrink by nearly 13% by 2037
The number of high school students in New York State is projected to decline by four percent between fall 2021 and fall 2030。
Maine high schools graduated 13,170 students in 2013, and are projected to graduate only 11,180 in 2027, a 15.1% decline.
對於在未來若幹年有孩子要上大學的,這倒未必不是個好消息,年齡組人少了,競爭也少了。
但是這對大學可是很要命,特別是小的LAC,這些年本來已經不景氣,被COVID打擊紛紛倒閉,現在家庭對應高昂的學費,上大學的意願也在降低。紐約有兩所小的LAC這兩年倒閉了,物業正在拿出來賣。緬因一所小學校,十年內學生人數下降了50%,不知道還能撐多久。即使在繁華的大城市,私立小學校生存也不容易。哈佛旁邊一所小學校,十年內學生減少了43%。
LAC比較普遍的問題是專業設置脫離勞力市場現實,學生花錢念書找不到好工作。
這些學校采取的第一步是壓縮不景氣的專業,比如
Political science
Sociology
Global studies
Graduate-level photography
Music history.
Jazz.
Visual/studio art.
Communication studies.
Film studies.
Public relations.
Public health.
Master’s in public health.
Digital marketing-to-MBA graduate program.
Master’s in higher education leadership.
當然這隻能暫時維持,因為學生少了學校固定資產還需要維持,不是長遠之計。還是得靠多開實用的專業學生念了劃算才會有人來。