Deferred: 1566. Assuming 60% get admitted, that's1096

Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 1096 = 470.

470 /44925 = 1%. This is unlikely low.

If we assume 30% deferred are admitted, then 30% * 1566 = 548.

Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). then RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 548= 1018.

1018 /44925 = 2.3%. This feels more reasonable.

But all things considered, I think only 20-25% deferred will be admitted.

 

Even simpler calculation,

20% * 60% = 12%, add that to EA admits of 9%, we got 21% total for EA pool. That's highly unlikely when the overall pool has <5% chance.

所有跟帖： 

• Good thought -賈平凸- ♂ (282 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:26:53

• I can't find a link for the number 2.5%. This is the key -k-18- ♂ (460 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:36:48

• So I told you it is 2.5%, this can be the key too -賈平凸- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:42:21