有人說現在就是好時機，有人說

2009年經濟災難預測（中英文對照）




Roger Wiegand


“我們認為我們現在有足夠的資料從基本麵和技術麵來對2009年做一些嚴肅的預報和預測。2008年是一個令人討厭的年份，很多事情被引爆，並且還遠遠沒有得到修複。財政部長保爾森告訴我們這個星期沒有更多的驚喜，還告訴我，我們甚至還沒有發現金融衍生怪物的一小部分。拿納稅人的7000億美元僅僅是一個熱身。對交易商和投資者來說，更大的問題是未來會發生什麽以及何時發生。

在下麵的報告中，我們將考慮全球經濟的關鍵點，並預測2009年的結果。


2008年最重要的新聞是全球大型銀行的淨資產的解體以及他們對運作正常業務和提供市場流動性貸款的脆弱的自我修複能力。


伯南克和保爾森隻幫助壞孩子銀行恢複流動性以保持營業狀態，而不把信貸擴張提供給西部或全球經濟體的任何企業。


2009年的結果將是沒有顯著的銀行貸款，采取更多的救助資金和撇清各種不良貸款。


我們認為最大的看點是保險業巨頭美國國際集團（AIG）的巨大災難。盡管多次注資數十億美元拯救，AIG仍處於千鈞一發之際。


2009年的結果將是AIG的意外墜落和失敗威脅全球，導致整個西方國家和亞洲國家的保險業無法開展業務，除非使用強製保險政策。


大多數人不理解這個的怪物的滑落將產生什麽後果。我們認為這幾乎無法估量的，這就是為什麽保爾森給他們這麽多錢。


我們的新總統決心進行一項8600億至1萬億美元的艱巨努力，以實現新的經濟複蘇，盡管他的一些想法的確是崇高，但總體規劃將毫無效果，第二次大蕭條仍將發生，股市將在2009年5月和9-10月間墜落。


我們認為最嚴重的打擊將在2009年9月的晚些時候。


在明年春天，我們看到：


（ 1 ）第二波更大的住宅按揭違約浪潮；


（ 2 ）第一波汽車消費貸款違約的大浪；


（ 3 ）超過400億美元的信用卡違約，將打擊銀行貸款；


（ 4 ）第一波購物商場、辦公樓和其他商業地產的抵押貸款止贖權喪失；


（ 5 ）最後，無保證金資金或定金的CDS交易將上演華麗的終場樂章！我們今天聽到的總數是500萬億美元！我甚至不能形容這個數字。


這五個融合的死亡列車將帶著道瓊斯指數從死貓跳的10400-10800回到7250 ，甚至6600，或5600。





股市交易者和投資者有一個更堅實的季度，我們認為即將到來的奧巴馬萬億美元的施舍能夠恢複一些股市的損失。


我們認為，提升股票市場將有助於讓大多數部門獲得一些恢複，並且提供了股市觸底和發現新的基地的幻想。


嚴峻的現實是，股價在4月或5月上旬達到峰值後進行的前所未有的高台跳水嚇得美國人和全世界不知所措。


即使這些事件和不斷上升的失業率問題出現，經濟觀察家和分析家們繼續會信誓旦旦地說最壞的時期已經過去，底部已經出現，一個良好的、新的、熠熠生輝的世界貿易和投資體係將在2009年秋季之前出現在我們光明的經濟中。

然後，在9月末10月初，紐約，倫敦，東京和亞洲市場將發生一個巨大的崩潰。


多低才算低，多壞才是盡頭？


我們認為，道瓊斯可能在2009年11月1號終結，從5600附近跌至3000點，甚至1500點。跨國公司的市盈率（PE）將降至4-7。今天，他們中的大多數接近18。


這種嚴重性的預測告訴了我們什麽？


美國現在全國失業率觸及16 ％ ，官方公布的數字隻是真實數字的一半。


到2009年秋天，美國的實際失業率將接近1930年代整個大蕭條時期的水平即25 ％，可悲的是，這並不是最嚴重的，我們預測美國真實的失業率將達到30-40 ％ 。在密歇根州和俄亥俄州，40 ％的失業率也並非天方夜譚。


幾個歐洲國家都為失業人士建立了更大更多的社會安全網。而美國國家當局幾乎沒有準備。


美國聯邦政府提供食品券的部門和提供福利供應的工作將被淹沒。這將是一次卡特裏娜颶風對全美國饑餓公民的襲擊。


城市地區將看到犯罪率暴漲，一些城市的部分地區則完全無法居住。


在最近的報告中，我們已經看到1100萬美國公民接受糧食援助、70萬兒童每天挨餓。我們懷疑接受糧食幫助的真實數字將達到3500萬人，其中一些是幼小的、手無寸鐵的兒童。政府仍然會否認，而且無論如何也不準備宣布全國緊急狀態。隨著事態惡化，針對富裕人群的糧食騷亂和其他暴力行為將司空見慣。


未來三年內銀行倒閉的數量將達數千。另外，2011年或2012年，美元指數可能擊破最近的低點70.00，下滑到46.00。


當聯邦儲備委員會和美國財政部拚命印刷和分發現金以刺激停滯不前的經濟，甚至超低利率也失效時，通貨膨脹或潛在的惡性通貨膨脹就是很實際的。伯南克已經沒有降息空間。


消費者將破產或走向破產。相互關聯的家庭戶數將增加一倍和兩倍，甚至與一些雇員在同一個屋簷下。基本租金成本，按揭付款，醫療保健，食品，公用事業和稅收負擔過多，而工資卻在持續下跌。


在美國的一些地區，大量的住宅完全被遺棄，或隻有一部分人能夠完全占有。數以百萬計的新抵押貸款人沒有獲得通過，隻有極少數人可以得到貸款。


我們正在目睹係統性崩潰。


市政府和國家陷入支出和債務纏身的困境。據報道，美國50個州中的22個有嚴重的預算問題。加州是其中可怕的一個，密歇根州在技術上已經破產。


底特律將在2009年破產，並且還將有更多的意外發生。將有一連串的債券違約，其結果將淹沒這些城市、州和縣，導致他們借錢越來越多。


這些閃耀光線越快通過，我們從底部開始複蘇也會越快。可悲的是，複蘇進程將需要經年。


在股票市場被遺忘了多年之後，期貨和商品交易商會持續獲得穩定的利潤。


2015年之前我們將看不到複蘇的跡象。




原文：


Our 2009 Predictions


Roger Wiegand Dec 22 2008 1:23PM





"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.

In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009." -Traderrog


The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.


The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.

Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.


During the spring of next year we see:


(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.

Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.


Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?

Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.

Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable. ...


The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.

The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.

Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.


Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.


The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.