AI的盛行殃及了外接硬盤、solid state drive、記憶卡價錢的暴漲
下麵是我在幾家店買的外接硬盤、記憶卡價錢、日期、增加的百分比的表格（2026年3月9日的價錢不是我買的價錢是當天的價錢）：
| Amazon | $ | % | $ | % | $ | % | $ | % |
| Team sd 32gb 10x | m.2280 SSD | PNY 64gb sd 5x | Anglebird Cfexpress card 512gb | |||||
| 3/9/2026 | 69.99 | 125.85 | 145.99 | 224.49 | 49.99 | 69.17 | 269.00 | 35.18 |
| 1/16/2026 | 199.00 | |||||||
| 11/25/2025 | ||||||||
| 4/25/2025 | 30.99 | 8.83 | ||||||
| 1/19/2025 | 44.99 | |||||||
| 12/20/2024 | 30.99 | |||||||
| 11/15/2024 | 30.99 | |||||||
| 11/7/2024 | 31.99 | 29.55 | ||||||
| 7/28/2024 | 33.99 | |||||||
| 4/22/2024 | 30.99 | |||||||
| 3/2/2024 | 33.99 | |||||||
| 8/2/2023 | ||||||||
| 6/21/2023 | ||||||||
| 4/19/2023 | ||||||||
| Best Buy |
| |||||||
| Seagate 26 tb ext. hd | samsung ssd 1tb | Seagate 20 tb ext. hd | ||||||
| 3/9/2026 | 349.99 | 29.63 | 179.99 | 200.03 | 439.99 | 91.31 | ||
| 12/19/2025 | 269.99 | newegg | ||||||
| 10/13/2025 | 99.99 | |||||||
| 2/10/2025 | 229.99 | |||||||
| 5/26/2023 | 59.99 | |||||||
| newegg | ||||||||
| samsung ssd 1tb | seagate ext hd 4tb | |||||||
| 3/9/2026 | 179.99 | 260.05 | 144.99 | 45.00 | ||||
| 6/19/2023 | 49.99 | 12.22 | ||||||
| 5/12/2023 | 56.95 | |||||||
| 4/29/2017 | 99.99 | |||||||
| walmart | ||||||||
| seagate 5 tb ext hd | ||||||||
| 3/9/2026 | 144 | 21.01 | ||||||
| 1/26/2026 | 119 | |||||||
Micro SD card, solid state drive, CFexpress card,外接硬盤的價錢最近增加了很多。好像在2025年年底，這些東西的價錢一直在增加。而在以前的10年，這些東西的價錢一直在降低。不知是什麽原因。上麵的表是我在Amazon， best buy, Walmart 和 newegg當時買的價錢的和現在它們的價錢的對比。紅的數字是現價和原來買時的價錢的增加的百分比。綠的數字，是當時的價錢和以前買的時候的價錢的降低的百分比。可以看出現在的價錢都增加了，而原來的價錢一直是在降低。
我問了Gemini，它的結論是AI的盛行,生產重心轉移,行業"售罄"殃及了外接硬盤、solid state drive、記憶卡價錢的暴漲。Gemini給出的結論是如果你現在不急需這些東西，可以等到2026年底、2027年初，那時價錢可能降下來。
下麵是我問Gemini， 它用英語回答的記錄，我讓deepseek將英語翻譯成了中文。
I notice that recently the prices of micro sd cards, external hard drive, ssd increased greatly, could you analyse what it the reason? But in the past ten years, their prices has been dropping greatly. why?
Gemini said
It is definitely frustrating to see prices jump, especially after years of getting used to storage becoming cheaper and cheaper. We are currently in the middle of a massive "storage crisis" that began in late 2024 and has peaked here in 2026.
To understand what’s happening, we have to look at why things are expensive now versus why they were so cheap for the last decade.
1. Why are prices skyrocketing right now (2025–2026)?
The current price hike is being called the "Storage Apocalypse" by some analysts. There are three main culprits:
- The AI Data Center "Vacuum": This is the biggest factor. AI models like GPT-5 and newer generative systems require massive amounts of high-speed memory (DRAM) and high-capacity storage (NAND/SSDs) to train and run. Data center giants (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are buying up nearly 70–90% of the global supply, leaving very little for the consumer market.
+1
- Production Shifts (The HBM Pivot): Manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have shifted their factory capacity away from making "standard" SSDs and SD cards to focus on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). HBM is much more profitable because it’s essential for AI chips (like NVIDIA’s). Since they are making less standard NAND flash, the price for what remains has more than doubled.
+1
- A "Sold Out" Industry: Major manufacturers, including Western Digital and Phison, have publicly stated that their entire production capacity for 2026 is already sold out. When supply is literally zero for new customers, prices for existing stock on shelves (like Micro SD cards and External HDDs) jump instantly.
Note: Between 2025 and early 2026, the cost of a 1TB TLC NAND chip jumped from roughly $4.80 to over $10.70.
2. Why did prices drop so much in the last 10 years?
Until 2024, we enjoyed a "Golden Era" of cheap storage. This happened because of a few predictable economic and technical cycles:
- 3D NAND Technology: In the past decade, engineers figured out how to "stack" memory cells on top of each other (like floors in a skyscraper) rather than just laying them flat. This allowed for 128, 176, or even 232 layers of data in the same tiny space, making high-capacity drives much cheaper to build.
- The Move to QLC: Manufacturers introduced Quad-Level Cell (QLC) technology, which stores four bits of data per cell instead of one or two. While slightly slower, it made 2TB and 4TB SSDs affordable for regular people.
- The 2023 Overproduction: Just before the AI boom, there was actually a huge oversupply of storage. During the post-pandemic slump in 2023, people stopped buying new PCs, but factories kept making chips. This forced companies to "dump" their inventory at record-low prices just to get rid of it.
Summary Comparison
| Feature | The Last 10 Years (Trend) | Right Now (2025–2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Driver | Better tech (3D Stacking) | AI Data Center Demand |
| Supply Status | Consistent Oversupply | "Sold Out" through 2026 |
| Profit Focus | Consumer Electronics | Enterprise AI Hardware |
| Price Trend | Dropped ~20–30% per year | Increased 50–150% |
What should you do? If you don't need the storage immediately, industry experts suggest waiting until late 2026 or early 2027, when new "mega-fabs" (chip factories) currently under construction are expected to finally come online and stabilize the supply.
我注意到最近 microSD 卡、移動硬盤和 SSD 的價格大幅上漲，你能分析一下原因嗎？但在過去十年裏，它們的價格一直在大幅下降。
Gemini 表示：
看到價格突然上漲確實令人沮喪，尤其是在我們已經習慣了存儲設備變得越來越便宜的這些年之後。我們目前正處於一場始於 2024 年底、並在 2026 年達到頂峰的大規模"存儲危機"之中。
要理解發生了什麽，我們必須看看導致當前價格昂貴的原因，以及過去十年價格如此低廉的原因。
1. 為什麽價格現在（2025-2026 年）會飆升？
當前的價格上漲被一些分析師稱為"存儲末日"。主要有三個原因：
- AI 數據中心的"真空吸力"：這是最大的因素。像 GPT-5 和更新的生成式係統需要大量的高速內存 (DRAM) 和大容量存儲 (NAND/SSD) 來進行訓練和運行。數據中心巨頭（微軟、穀歌、亞馬遜）正在購買全球近 70-90% 的供應量，留給消費市場的份額非常少。
- 生產重心轉移（HBM 轉型）：像三星和 SK 海力士這樣的製造商已將其工廠產能從生產"標準"SSD 和 SD 卡，轉向專注於高帶寬內存 (HBM)。HBM 的利潤要高得多，因為它對 AI 芯片（如 NVIDIA 的芯片）至關重要。由於他們生產的標準 NAND 閃存減少，剩餘產品的價格已經上漲了一倍多。
- 行業"售罄"：包括西部數據和 Phison 在內的主要製造商已公開表示，他們 2026 年的全部生產能力已經售罄。當對新客戶的供應實際上為零時，現有庫存（如 Micro SD 卡和外置 HDD）的價格就會立即上漲。
注意：在 2025 年至 2026 年初，一顆 1TB TLC NAND 芯片的成本從大約 4.80 美元躍升至超過 10.70 美元。
2. 為什麽過去 10 年價格下降如此之多？
直到 2024 年，我們享受了一個廉價存儲的"黃金時代"。這是由於幾個可預測的經濟和技術周期造成的：
- 3D NAND 技術：在過去十年中，工程師們找到了如何將存儲單元"堆疊"在一起（就像摩天大樓的樓層）的方法，而不是僅僅將它們平鋪。這使得在同樣微小的空間內實現 128、176 甚至 232 層的數據成為可能，從而大大降低了製造高容量硬盤的成本。
- 轉向 QLC：製造商引入了四級單元 (QLC) 技術，每個單元存儲四位數據，而不是一位或兩位。雖然速度略慢，但它使 2TB 和 4TB SSD 對普通消費者來說變得負擔得起。
- 2023 年的過度生產：就在 AI 熱潮之前，實際上存在巨大的存儲供應過剩。在 2023 年疫情後的低迷期，人們停止購買新電腦，但工廠繼續生產芯片。這迫使公司為了清理庫存而以創紀錄的低價"傾銷"產品。
簡要對比
| 特征 | 過去 10 年（趨勢） | 現在（2025-2026 年） |
|---|---|---|
| 主要驅動力 | 更好的技術（3D 堆疊） | AI 數據中心的需求 |
| 供應狀況 | 持續供過於求 | 2026 年全年"售罄" |
| 利潤焦點 | 消費電子產品 | 企業 AI 硬件 |
| 價格趨勢 | 每年下降約 20-30% | 上漲 50-150% |
你應該怎麽做？
如果你不是急需購買存儲設備，行業專家建議等到 2026 年底或 2027 年初，屆時目前正在建設的新"巨型晶圓廠"預計將最終投產並穩定供應。
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