再謝留兄討論，仍感話沒說完，不吐不快，望兄多包涵：

再謝留兄討論，仍感話沒說完，不吐不快，望兄多包涵：誰是“事前諸葛亮”也是我們後人的評價。梁啟超同時代的有許多人想作諸葛亮。It just happened that Liang turned out to be correct because the course of the history happend to move in the direction of Liang predicted. But the history could progress in a different way to make anothe persone as “事前諸葛亮”. To put it another way, if you have a hundred people to predict where a train would go, one of them has to be correct and he would be considered by the people in the future as a “事前諸葛亮”. Do you see my point?

當然大趨勢可以有“必然性”。但隻能是極其普遍的大大趨勢，例如：科學技術的不斷更新，等等。

所有跟帖： 

• 明白膠兄的意思。: ) 很多時候，曆史恰恰就是n*sigma之外的特殊人物推動的；但他們能走上曆史舞台，則仰仗時勢的推動。 -阿留- ♂ (238 bytes) () 08/23/2014 postreply 18:48:03