romney doesn't need to win. he needs to avoid big loss.

rather now, the tilt is toward romney from major polls and the foreign policy is not in the top 3 concerns by average votes. by conventional wisdom, the sitting president is at up hand in debating foreign policy when there is no international crisis (benghazi event is "optimal" for obama but it's not a killer). if he can get tie in today's debate, the chance will be very good for him on Nov. 6th.