中國青年失業率數字是不好看，不過沒必要上來就說政府掩耳盜鈴。統計這事，魔鬼在細節之中。

來源: 奔馳野馬於 2023-08-15 09:16:10 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 閱讀數 : (6161 bytes)

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中國宣布暫停公布青年失業率統計，給出的理由是“需要優化統計方法”，特別是怎樣統計在校大學生的問題。

至於那個一周工作一小時算就業的定義，美國也是這樣用的，甚至連那個“一小時”都省了。如果看官方定義的話，美國是這樣的：

Who is counted as employed?

People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Individuals also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week, whether they were paid or not, because they were:

On vacation
Ill
Experiencing child care problems
On maternity or paternity leave
Taking care of some other family or personal obligation
Involved in a labor dispute
Prevented from working by bad weather

中美的差異其實在於，中國的統計方法太粗放，根據年齡一刀切。16歲以上就自動計入labor force，而不問是否有工作的意願。

美國的統計比較細致，是建議在問卷的基礎上。首先有問題確定你是否在labor force，然後再問你在過去的一周是否工作。具體的問題，可以在勞工局網站上找到。

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#employed

按照美國的統計口徑，沒有工作意願的學生是不計算在labor force之內的，也就沒有所謂的失業問題。

Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. This category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

雖然中國的青年失業率，即便優化了統計方法，也可能會比美國的難看，但肯定會低於20%的水平。所以，先別下結論政府掩耳盜鈴，等新統計方法出來了再罵不遲。