120年前的“一帶一路”、“止戈為武”是如何演變成一場世界大戰的？
整整一個世紀前，歐洲大陸剛剛結束了第一次世界大戰的血雨腥風。戰爭前，經過“鐵血宰相”俾斯麥數十年卓有成效的經營，德意誌帝國外接連贏得戰爭勝利，在內完成了政治統一和經濟 發展，在確立了歐陸霸主的地位，世界矚目，群雄側足，似乎再沒有人能阻擋後起的德意誌帝國的崛起之勢。但是，威廉二世繼位，俾斯麥下台，皇帝親政，隨後德國陷入長達四年的慘烈“一戰”並最終戰敗，遭受了自“三十年戰爭“以來最為沉重的打擊，從上升的高峰直墜穀底。德國這一段盛衰經曆在 近代史上具有標本性的典型意義，值得同處於崛起期的中國借鑒深思。
首先讓我們簡要了解一下德意誌德國的崛起之路。作為一個晚來的國家，德國於十九世紀末到二十世紀初迅速興起，在各領域都取得了驕人成績。
政治上，1871年俾斯麥推動完成德意誌統一運動，在外打敗丹麥、奧地利、法國，坐上歐洲大陸軍事首強的寶座;經濟上，與英法的工業化相比，德國呈現出“遲、快、徹底”特點，以鐵路建設為推力，帶動重工業發展，尤其是煤炭、鋼鐵工業，並在第二次工業革命中誕生的新興產業——化學和電氣工業取得領跑優勢。德國二十世紀初就迅速實現了經濟上的“趕英超法”，雖總量尚不及美國，但質量更優。
軍事上，德國通過19世紀初普魯士軍事家沙恩霍斯特的軍事改革，創立了軍隊大腦“總參謀部”體製和“全民皆兵”的戰爭動員體係，實現了高效指揮和全民武裝，建立了一隻以普魯士正規軍為核心，預備役、民兵梯次配置的強大的人民軍隊。其統一戰爭的主要對手——法軍，雖然規模至四十萬之巨，並擁有克裏米亞和墨西哥戰爭的實戰經驗，依然不敵德軍敗下陣來。
外交上，俾斯麥像寫作一篇嚴謹的學術論文一般布置德國的外交格局，執行韜光養晦不當頭的策略。1871年後，俾斯麥建立起以德國為中心的大陸體係，建立德奧俄同盟，孤立世仇法國，將其排除於歐洲事務之外。另外，教育和科技和方麵，洪堡兄弟開始教育改革，現代大學製度逐步形成，職業教育體係也日趨完善，德國科學家成為第二次工業革命科技飛躍的無可爭辯的主角。同時，俾斯麥還首倡社會保險製度，作為消解社會矛盾、增強社會穩定的手段，成效顯著並沿用至今。
然而，改革進行了20年後，隨著1888年威廉二世的親政，震撼世界的德意誌奇跡戛然而止。
威廉二世掌權後，渴望將德國從歐陸強國提升為世界霸權，丟棄了俾斯麥時代製定的韜光養晦、決不當頭的外交策略，輕躁冒進，禁止任何妄議言論，最終自釀苦酒。體現在如下幾個方麵：
首先，德國在殖民地擴張和海軍發展問題上，與英國發生不可調和的衝突，最終把英國逼至對立麵。英帝國是當時的世界第一霸權國本來，對英關係是威廉二世外交路線的重點，他希望綁定英國，讓英德經濟緊密融合，以抵消對俄關係惡化的影響，促使歐陸權力中心重回德國。他本人就是維多利亞女王的外孫，少年時在英國度過，有著天然的大好條件。
但是，由於當時工業發展，急需對外輸出產品，對內輸入原料，德國對殖民地的需求日益增長。另外，當時西方掀起瓜分世界的帝國主義狂潮，德國也不甘落後。但當時世界的殖民地霸權掌握在英國手上，世界大宗商品的結算權也在英帝國手上，英鎊作為世界硬通貨成為英帝國收割全球羊毛的工具。德國對殖民地的追求不得不挑戰英鎊的國際貨幣結算地位。觸及英鎊結算，自然也就觸及了英國的核心利益。使得後果更為嚴重的是，威廉二世爭奪殖民地總是玩弄手段，咄咄逼人。比如太平洋上的薩摩亞群島，原為德美英三國共有，威廉二世卻試圖趕跑美英，一家獨占；在南非，英國希望獲得兩個布爾人(荷蘭移民後裔)國家，對此覬覦已久的德國卻橫加欄阻。這些矛盾給英德關係籠罩上濃重的陰雲。
長於英國、對英國堅船利炮極為豔羨的威廉二世也意識到海軍的重要性。當時德國先後通過了兩個海軍法案。第一個法案目標是保證北海和波羅的海主導權，第二個則旨在建立遠洋海軍，爭奪全球海洋主導權。德國提出：地球上的海洋很大，足夠英德兩國平分的。德國試圖憑借之前積累的經濟實力和工業基礎，全速發展海軍，各種主力戰艦下餃子，以達到“止戈為武”的目的。德國人表麵上聲稱國家間要有事好商量，不能動輒就訴諸武力或以武力相威脅，各國應堅持平等協商，完善危機溝通機製，加強區域安全合作，推動涉海分歧妥善解決，而實際上就是要讓戰爭的代價太沉重從而讓英國無法承受，以此脅迫英國對自己的擴張聽之任之，不得動作。這更加觸動了傳統海上霸主——英國最敏感的神經，使其深感自己的核心優勢受到德國的直接威脅。因為英帝國的邏輯是除非德國承認英帝國的霸權，否則就是在挑起戰爭。無奈下，英國試圖與德國協商，甚至暗示德國，隻要德國願意限製海軍實力，英國就會與法俄保持距離，但是威廉二世的要價過高，追求的是把北海變成德國的內湖，這讓英國人實在無法接受。1912年，英國還曾往柏林派出談判團，但德國的強硬態度毫不退讓，堅持要發展海軍，堅持要挑戰英國在北海乃至整個大西洋的海洋霸權，錯過了與英國和解的最後機會，德英海軍競賽加劇。
對德國而言，與英國的敵對是致命性的。戰爭開始後，德國人很快就嚐到了與英為敵的苦頭，英吉利的強大海軍成為封鎖了德國出海口的利器，產品賣不出，糧食、原材料、能源運不進，讓德國人叫苦不迭。而且英國的參戰也成為意大利和美國等國最終紛紛對德宣戰的重要誘因，特別是美國的參戰壓碎了德國的最後一絲希望。
其次，改變對俄親善的策略，導致德俄交惡。俄國是緊鄰德國東部疆界的大國，與俄關係是決定德國戰略環境好壞的關鍵因素。曆史上已有明驗，19世紀初拿破侖戰爭中，普魯士已敗至幾近亡國，甚至連國家象征——柏林勃蘭登堡門上的勝利女神像都被法國人拆下來運回巴黎，最終是靠著俄國的有效抵抗，拿破侖兵鋒重挫於莫斯科，普魯士才贏得喘息之機，艱難複國。1871年，德國統一的重要外部條件也是俄國的不幹涉。為此在俾斯麥製定的大陸體係中，對俄友善是德國的基本方針，以實現“東和西戰”的目的，即保持德國東部後院的穩定，專意對付西方的主要對手法國。這一策略的成果體現在德俄1887年簽訂的為期三年的《再保險條約》，按照該條約，俄國需在法國入侵德國時保持中立地位。為此，俾斯麥不惜在其他方麵毫不吝嗇地給與俄羅斯大把好處。但同時，老謀深算的俾斯麥也深諳“一手給出，一手拿回”的外交手段，暗地裏巧妙地利用其他國家來製約俄國勢力的擴張，坐享親善睦鄰之名，而無損己奉彼之實。
威廉二世親政後，拋棄俾斯麥的大陸體係，疏遠俄國。他在奧地利與俄國在保加利亞和巴爾幹半島等地的衝突中，選擇支持奧地利。1890年，俄國基於自身利益考慮，希望將《再保險條約》續約六年，但威廉德國予以拒絕。種種行為，逼得俄國不得不轉而尋求與法國結盟。
德國雄心勃勃修建德國版“一帶”，即“3B鐵路”，即柏林——拜占庭（伊斯坦布爾）——巴格達鐵路，侵入英俄在近東和中東的傳統勢力範圍，成為促成英法俄三國結盟的直接導火索。最後英法於1904年、英俄於1907年簽訂協約，協約國體係成型。至此，一戰開戰前，德國已陷入東有俄國，西有法國，海上通道又麵臨英國威脅的戰略絕境，實已回天乏術，未戰先敗。
最後，在一戰的導火索——“薩拉熱窩事件”的應對上，德國決策層也出現了嚴重的戰略誤判。
1914年6月28日，塞爾維亞人暗殺了奧匈帝國皇儲。奧匈要尋求複仇，塞爾維亞固不足論，但它的保護國卻是奧匈自己惹不起的俄國。於是，奧匈尋求德國的支持。在俄國是否會出兵援塞這一關鍵問題上，以威廉二世為首的德國決策層輕率地做出了否定性的結論，理由是奧匈對塞爾維亞可以速勝，塞爾維亞麵對攻擊隻能堅持兩周，不會給俄國留下插手的時間。而且，同為君主製國家，估計俄沙皇也不會反對懲辦謀害皇族的行為。此外，此時奧匈幾乎已是德國在歐陸唯一可以依靠的盟友，必須予以支持。更重要的是，德國決策層認為戰爭將是局部性的。最終德國給奧匈開出了支持戰爭的空白支票，任其填寫。
但是，隨後的事件進程和協約國的反應遠遠超出德國的預料。首先奧匈行事遲緩，錯過了國際輿論聲討塞爾維亞的有利時期，對塞爾維亞發出的照會又言語極其不遜，有理也變成了無理。俄國隨後明確聲明不允許奧匈進入塞爾維亞，法國也宣布會按依協議出兵。英國提出在倫敦召開國際會議協商危機的建議又被拒絕，最終不得不表示，如果德國出兵支持奧匈，那麽英國也將參戰。大戰一觸即發，德奧同盟明顯處於劣勢地位，德國此時才著急去做各方工作，但又明顯“拉偏架”，不去阻止手按宣戰按鈕的奧匈，反而勸說俄國不幹預。最終斡旋失敗，一場曠日持久、死亡人數超過1600萬人的歐洲內戰由此爆發。
不堪戰爭苦難的德國人民在戰爭末期爆發起義，威廉二世倉皇出逃，曾經光芒耀眼的“第二帝國”走入曆史墳墓。戰後，德國被迫簽訂《凡爾賽合約》，不但所有殖民地被剝奪，戰前集全國之力發展的海軍也幾近全滅。仇恨的火星深深地隱藏起來，直到約二十年後鈉粹德國興起，才從地下噴湧而出，將更加慘烈的戰火燒遍全世界。
回顧完這段曆史，以中國麵臨的外交形勢為出發點，我們從一戰前德國外交戰略的失誤中可以汲取的經驗主要有如下幾方麵：
首先，國家必須始終清醒地把握國際格局並在此基礎上製定正確的外交戰略，盡量讓自己處於有利一方。就一戰前的歐陸而言，德法俄英奧是五大強國。其中，德法對立是無可改變的事實，德奧是盟友，英國和俄國則是足以用來平衡甚至左右歐陸格局的兩枚重要砝碼，也是德國外交行動的主要著力點。以威廉二世為首的德國決策層卻在對英、俄關係上都犯下嚴重失誤，在對英關係進展尚不明朗的時候，就貿然放棄對俄關係，隨後又與英交惡，拱手將這兩枚砝碼送給法國。 國亡思良相，威廉二世晚年在回憶錄中又想起了俾斯麥的外交藝術。他說德法俄英奧五國間的合縱連橫，在俾斯麥運作下，就像拋球雜耍一般。而俾斯麥，好似一位偉大的雜技家，他不但總能讓三個球組成一方居於上風，更重要的是，他能讓德國始終位於這多數的三個球當中。
相似的，就目前的歐亞大陸而言，中日美歐俄是五大強國，中日對立是無可改變的事實，中俄是盟友，美國和歐盟則是足以用來平衡甚至左右歐陸格局的兩枚重要砝碼，也是中國外交行動的主要著力點。中國對歐洲，萬萬不可以在對美關係進展尚不明朗的時候，就貿然放棄對歐關係，隨後又與美交惡，拱手將這兩枚砝碼送給日本。
其次，還需要以恰當的態度對待自己的盟友。在薩拉熱窩事件中，德國對己方陣營中的奧匈不但未施以必要的約束，反而許下空頭支票，助長了他的錯誤行徑，結果自己也被拖下混水，綁上戰車。在對俄關係中，中國也要把握對俄的距離，不要在烏克蘭、敘利亞和克裏米亞問題上被俄羅斯拖下水。
再次，新興強國麵對既有國際格局和傳統強國，不應直接對抗，而應順勢而行，見機而動，得好就收。國家的發展繁榮是自身建設出來的，而不是在外鬥爭或者鬥嘴出來的。一戰前的德國急切地挑戰傳統強國而將大好形勢親手斷送的教訓，值得始終牢記。新興強國崛起的道路上，最大的危險始終在於自身，自己不犯錯最重要。一時崛起靠的是有所作為，長期興盛卻更需要有所不為。目前，中國各種直接挑戰美元作為國際結算貨幣地位的行為，譬如人民幣國際化和阻止美國收割羊毛的行為，與威廉德國急切試圖奪取殖民地的行為沒有區別。而對試圖離間歐盟各國和通過工業2025計劃奪取歐盟尖端製造業地位的舉措又與當年威廉德國放棄對俄關係的行為別無二致。而大肆興建現代化海軍、空軍和高超音速水漂彈的行為也與當年德國貿然發動與英國的造艦競賽的行為異曲同工。在這些事情上，中國必須控製自己，停止這些不切實際的冒險。中國應該做的是加快改革，實行金融自由化，放棄國家資本主義，放棄工業計劃2025和保護知識產權。
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How did the "Belt and Road" and "stop the martial arts" of 120 years ago evolve into a world war?
A century ago, the European continent had just ended the bloody hurricane of the First World War. Before the war, after several years of fruitful operation by the "iron and blood prime minister" Bismarck, the German empire won the war victory, completed the political unification and economic development, established the status of the European hegemon, the world's attention, the heroes, it seems No one can stop the rise of the German Empire. However, William II succeeded to the throne, Bismarck stepped down, the emperor pro-governance, and then Germany fell into a fierce "first-war" for four years and eventually defeated, suffering the most severe blow since the "Thirty Years War", from the rising peak Straight to the bottom. This period of ups and downs in Germany has the typical meaning of specimens in modern history, and it is worthwhile to learn from China in the rising period.
Let us first briefly understand the rise of Germany and Germany. As a late country, Germany quickly emerged from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century, and achieved remarkable results in various fields.
Politically, in 1871 Bismarck promoted the completion of the German unification movement, defeated Denmark, Austria, and France, and took the throne of the top military in Europe. Economically, compared with the industrialization of Britain and France, Germany showed "late, fast, thorough". The characteristics of the railway construction as the thrust, driving the development of heavy industry, especially the coal, steel industry, and the emerging industry in the second industrial revolution - the chemical and electrical industry to take the lead. At the beginning of the 20th century, Germany quickly realized the economic "catch-up of the British super-law". Although the total amount is still not as good as that of the United States, the quality is better.
Militaryly, through the military reform of the Prussian military strategist Shaen Horst in the early 19th century, Germany created the "general staff" system of the military brain and the "mobility system" of all the people, achieving efficient command and armed forces, and established A powerful people's army with the Prussian regular army as its core, the reserve and the militia. The main opponent of the united war, the French army, although it was as large as 400,000, and had practical experience in the wars in Crimea and Mexico, still lost to the Germans.
Diplomacy, Bismarck is like writing a rigorous academic paper to generally arrange the German diplomatic landscape, and implement the strategy of keeping a low profile. After 1871, Bismarck established a continental system centered on Germany, established the German-Olympian alliance, and isolated the feud of France, and excluded it from European affairs. In addition, in education and science and technology, the Humboldt brothers began education reform, the modern university system gradually formed, and the vocational education system became more and more perfect. German scientists became the indisputable protagonist of the second industrial revolution. At the same time, Bismarck also advocated the social insurance system as a means of dissolving social contradictions and enhancing social stability. The results have been remarkable and have been used to this day.
However, 20 years after the reform, with the pro-government of William II in 1888, the German miracle that shocked the world came to an abrupt end.
After Wilhelm II took power, he was eager to promote Germany from the European powers to world hegemony, discarding the diplomatic strategy set by the Bismarck era, and ignoring the arrogance, prohibiting any deliberation, and eventually brewing bitter wine. It is reflected in the following aspects:
First of all, Germany’s irreconcilable conflict with the United Kingdom on colonial expansion and naval development eventually pushed Britain to the opposite. The British Empire was the world’s first hegemonic country at the time. The relationship with Britain was the focus of William II’s diplomatic line. He hoped to bind Britain and allow the British and German economies to integrate closely to offset the deterioration of relations with Russia and promote the European Power Center. Return to Germany. He himself is the grandson of Queen Victoria, who spent his time in the UK as a teenager, with natural and good conditions.
However, due to the industrial development at that time, there was an urgent need to export products to the outside world, and the demand for colonies in Germany was increasing. In addition, at that time, the West set off an imperialist frenzy that divided the world, and Germany was not far behind. But at that time, the colonial hegemony of the world was in the hands of the British. The right to settle the world's commodities was also in the hands of the British Empire. The British pound became the world's hard currency and became the tool for the British Empire to harvest the world's wool. Germany’s pursuit of the colony had to challenge the international currency settlement status of the pound. Touching the settlement of the pound, it naturally touches the core interests of the UK. What makes the consequences even worse is that William II’s struggle for the colonies is always a playful and aggressive approach. For example, the Samoa Islands in the Pacific Ocean were originally owned by Germany, the United States and Britain. William II tried to run away from the United States and Britain, and the other was monopolized. In South Africa, the United Kingdom hopes to acquire two Boer (Dutch immigrants) countries. Germany has added a barrier. These contradictions have clouded a thick cloud of English-German relations.
William II, who grew up in Britain and was very envious of the British ship, also realized the importance of the navy. At that time, Germany passed two naval bills. The first bill aims to guarantee the dominance of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, and the second aims to establish a distant ocean naval to compete for global ocean dominance. The logic of Germany is that the ocean on earth is large enough to be equally divided between Britain and Germany. Germany has tried to develop the navy at full speed with the accumulated economic strength and industrial base, and to make dumplings under various main battleships in order to achieve the goal of "going to the martial arts." On the surface, the Germans claim that there must be good discussions between the countries. If they do not resort to force or threaten by force, countries should adhere to equal consultations, improve the crisis communication mechanism, strengthen regional security cooperation, and promote the settlement of sea-related differences. It is to ask the United Kingdom to let it go to its own expansion and not to use force. This has touched the traditional maritime hegemony, Britain's most sensitive nerve, making it deeply felt that its core advantages are directly threatened by Germany. Because the logic of the British Empire is that unless Germany recognizes the hegemony of the British Empire, it is provoking war. In desperation, the British tried to negotiate with Germany, and even hinted that Germany, as long as Germany is willing to limit the naval strength, the United Kingdom will keep a distance from France and Russia, but William II's asking price is too high, the pursuit is to turn the North Sea into Germany's inner lake, This makes the British really unacceptable. In 1912, the United Kingdom also sent a negotiating group to Berlin, but Germany’s tough attitude did not retreat. It insisted on developing the navy, insisting on challenging the British maritime hegemony in the North Sea and the entire Atlantic Ocean, and missing the last chance to reconcile with the United Kingdom. The naval competition has intensified.
For Germany, hostility to the UK is fatal. After the war began, the Germans soon tasted the bitterness of being against the British. The powerful navy of English became a weapon to block the German estuary. The products could not be sold, and the food, raw materials and energy could not be transported, and the Germans could not help. . Moreover, the British participation in the war has become an important incentive for Italy and the United States to finally declare war on Germany. In particular, the United States’ participation in the war has crushed Germany’s last hope.
Second, changing the strategy of goodwill toward Russia led to the evil between Russia and Russia. Russia is a big country close to the eastern border of Germany. The relationship with Russia is a key factor in determining the strategic environment of Germany. It has been proven in history that in the early Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century, Prussia was defeated to a near-dead country. Even the national symbol, the statue of Victory on the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, was taken down by the French and transported back to Paris. With the effective resistance of Russia, Napoleon’s squadron fell to Moscow, and Prussia won the respite and struggled to regain the country. In 1871, the important external conditions of German reunification were also Russian non-interference. For this reason, in the mainland system formulated by Bismarck, the friendliness of Russia is the basic principle of Germany, in order to achieve the purpose of "East and West War", that is, to maintain the stability of the backyard of Germany, and to deal with the main opponent of the West, France. The result of this strategy is reflected in the three-year "Reinsurance Treaty" signed by Germany and Russia in 1887. According to the treaty, Russia needs to maintain its neutral status when France invades Germany. To this end, Bismarck does not hesitate to give Russia a lot of benefits in other aspects. At the same time, the savvy Bismarck is also deeply acquainted with the diplomatic means of "giving one hand and getting it back". He secretly uses other countries to restrict the expansion of Russian power and enjoy the name of good neighborliness without compromising his own truth.
After William II became a pro-government, he abandoned Bismarck’s mainland system and alienated Russia. He chose to support Austria in the conflict between Austria and Russia in Bulgaria and the Balkans. In 1890, based on its own interests, Russia hoped to renew the Reinsurance Treaty for six years, but William Germany refused. All kinds of actions forced Russia to turn to seek an alliance with France.
Germany's ambitious construction of the German version of the "Belt", namely the "3B Railway", that is, Berlin - Byzantium (Istanbul) - Baghdad Railway, invading the traditional sphere of influence between Britain and Russia in the Near East and the Middle East, and becoming the direct guide to the alliance of Britain, France and Russia Fire rope. Finally, in 1904, Britain and Russia signed a treaty in 1907, and the Allies system was formed. At this point, before the start of the First World War, Germany had fallen into the east with Russia, the west with France, and the sea channel faced the strategic threat of the British threat, and it has already returned to the sky without a battle.
Finally, in the response to the fuse of the First World War, the "Sarajevo Incident", the German policy makers also had serious strategic misjudgments.
On June 28, 1914, the Serbs assassinated the Emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Austria and Hungary want to seek revenge, Serbia is not solid, but its protectorate is Russia that Austria and Hungary can not afford. Therefore, Austro-Hungarian sought German support. On the key issue of whether Russia will send troops to aid, the German decision-making head headed by William II made a rash conclusion. The reason is that Austria and Hungary can win fast against Serbia. Serbia can only insist on two attacks. Zhou will not leave time for Russia to intervene. Moreover, as a monarchy, it is estimated that the Russian tsar will not oppose the punishment of murdering the royal family. In addition, at this time, Austria and Hungary are almost the only allies that Germany can rely on in Europe and must be supported. More importantly, German policymakers believe that war will be partial. In the end, Germany gave Austria and Hungary a blank check to support the war and let it fill it out.
However, the subsequent event process and the reaction of the Allies have far exceeded Germany's expectations. First of all, the Austro-Hungarian operation was slow, and it missed the favorable period in which international public opinion denounced Serbia. The note sent to Serbia was extremely inferior and rational, and it became unreasonable. Russia then made a clear statement that Austrian-Hungarians were not allowed to enter Serbia, and France also announced that it would send troops according to the agreement. The British proposal to hold an international conference to negotiate a crisis in London was rejected. Eventually, it was necessary to say that if Germany sent troops to support Austria and Hungary, then Britain would also participate in the war. The war was on the verge of exploding, and the German-Australian alliance was clearly in a disadvantaged position. At this time, Germany was anxious to do the work of all parties, but it was obviously "striking", not to stop the Austrian-Hungarians pressing the button of declaration of war, but to persuade Russia not to intervene. Eventually the mediation failed, and a protracted European civil war with more than 16 million deaths broke out.
The German people who suffered from the war suffered an uprising at the end of the war. William II fled and the once radiant "Second Empire" entered the historical tomb. After the war, Germany was forced to sign the "Versailles Contract". Not only did all the colonies be deprived, but the navy that developed the power of the whole country before the war was almost completely destroyed. The hateful Mars was deeply hidden, until about half a year later, when Nazi Germany emerged, it sprang from the ground and burned even more fierce battles around the world.
After reviewing this history and taking the diplomatic situation facing China as the starting point, the lessons we can learn from the mistakes of the German diplomatic strategy before the First World War mainly include the following aspects:
First of all, the state must always clearly grasp the international situation and formulate a correct diplomatic strategy on this basis, and try to make itself in a favorable side. As far as the European Union before World War I, Germany, France and Russia were the five powers. Among them, the German-French opposition is an unchangeable fact. Germany and Austria are allies. The United Kingdom and Russia are two important weights that can be used to balance and even influence the European landscape. It is also the main focus of German diplomatic action. The German decision-making head, led by William II, made serious mistakes in the relations between Britain and Russia. When the progress of relations with Britain was still unclear, he rashly abandoned his relations with Russia, and then he succumbed to the British. Two weights were given to France. In the memoirs of William II, William II remembered the diplomatic art of Bismarck in his later years. He said that the combination of the five countries of Germany, France, Russia and the United Kingdom, under the operation of Bismarck, is like throwing a ball. Bismarck, like a great acrobat, not only allows the three players to have the upper hand, but more importantly, he can keep Germany in the majority of the three balls.
Similarly, as far as the current Eurasia is concerned, China, Japan, the United States, Europe and Russia are the five powers. The Sino-Japanese confrontation is unchangeable. China and Russia are allies, and the United States and the European Union are enough to balance or even influence the European landscape. Two important weights are also the main focus of China's diplomatic actions. China and Europe can't rush to give up their relations with Europe when the progress of relations with the United States is still unclear. Then they will succumb to the United States and hand over the two weights to Japan.
Second, you need to treat your allies with the right attitude. In the Sarajevo incident, Germany did not impose the necessary restrictions on Austrian-Hungarian in its own camp. Instead, it made a short check and contributed to his wrong behavior. As a result, he was dragged down and tied to the chariot. In relations with Russia, China must also grasp the distance to Russia and not be dragged down by Russia on the Ukrainian, Syrian, and Crimean issues.
Once again, emerging powers should face the existing international pattern and traditional powers. They should not directly confront each other. Instead, they should follow the trend and see the opportunities. The development and prosperity of the country is built by itself, not by external struggles or by bickering. The lessons that Germany before the First World War eagerly challenged the traditional powers and ruined the situation well, it is worth keeping in mind. On the road to the rise of emerging powers, the biggest danger is always in itself, and it is most important that you do not make mistakes. The rise of the moment depends on making a difference. In the long run, it needs more. At present, China's various direct challenges to the US dollar as an international settlement currency, such as the internationalization of the renminbi and the prevention of wool harvesting in the United States, are no different from William's eager attempt to seize the colony. The move to try to separate the EU countries and seize the EU's cutting-edge manufacturing status through the Industrial 2025 plan is no different from that of William Germany's abandonment of relations with Russia. The behavior of Daxu to build a modern navy, air force and hypersonic water drifting bombs is also the same as that of Germany’s rashly launching a competition with the British shipbuilding competition. In these matters, China must control itself and stop these unrealistic risks. What China should do is to speed up reforms, implement financial liberalization, abandon state capitalism, abandon industrial plans 2025 and protect intellectual property rights.
