德國央行：人民幣國際化進程。

國際貨幣領域的博弈基本是個零和遊戲，人民幣獲得國際空間，那麽就有另外的國際貨幣失去一定的空間。近期美國國債價格下跌，或許不妨加上這個曆史性的大背景。

http://www.bunde*****ank.de/Redaktion/EN/Reden/2013/2013_07_03_nagel.html

Via Deutsche Bundebank (Dr. Joachim Nagel),

Renminbi as a potential reserve currency

According to Bunde*****ank Executive Board member Joachim Nagel, the Chinese currency is well on its way to becoming one of the future global reserve currencies. This potential stems from the renminbi’s increasing convertibility, he said at a conference of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt.

He emphasised that although the US dollar is currently the most commonly used currency for settling trade with China, the significance of the renminbi has increased greatly over the last few years. He underlined this by referring to figures published by SWIFT, which indicate that the percentage of trading transactions settled in renminbi jumped from virtually zero to around 12% between 2010 and 2012 – and is likely to increase further. In view of this, he pointed out that the renminbi has already achieved the status of a trading currency.

Drawing parallels to the Deutsche Mark

Mr Nagel compared China’s growing importance with the German economic miracle of the 1950s and drew parallels between the renminbi's current growth and the development of the Deutsche Mark. Thanks to the recovery of the German economy, the country accumulated a large volume of foreign exchange reserves and the Deutsche Mark acquired the status of a global investment and reserve currency, he explained. He anticipates that "the renminbi is certain to have similar long-term prospects if market access is liberalised further". Mr Nagel backed up his comments by citing a survey of reserve managers carried out by RBS. The survey revealed that 14% of reserve managers have already invested in renminbi, with 37% of respondents considering investing in the currency in the next five to ten years.

Mr Nagel sees the renminbi as currently transitioning from a being trading currency to an investment currency. While both inward and outward direct investment is now possible, portfolio investments will continue to be regulated, he remarked, adding that improvements are expected in this area. "The internationalisation process of the Chinese currency is taking place more gradually than was the case with the Deutsche Mark, which, at times, was subject to radical upheaval", he added. Mr Nagel recalled, in this context, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the crisis in the European Monetary System at the beginning of the 1990s.

Renminbi financial centre in Frankfurt

Mr Nagel noted that "given China’s growing economic importance, the internationalisation of the renminbi seems long overdue". He explained the Chinese government’s decision to employ offshore trading centres, which would allow China to establish its currency internationally, while protecting its domestic financial system. Hong Kong, where around 80% of all renminbi trade is settled, is by far the most important trading centre for the currency, with London and Singapore each accounting for 4% of renminbi trade since mid-2012. He added that the expansion of the market has led to the growing significance of other financial centres for renminbi.

Mr Nagel welcomed Frankfurt’s endeavour to position itself as a trading hub for the Chinese currency, calling it a step in the right direction, towards the free movement of capital. "The high level of interaction between China's and Germany's real economies highlights the necessity for a more active renminbi trade", Mr Nagel remarked, "perhaps even using Germany as a hub"

全文： http://www.bunde*****ank.de/Redaktion/EN/Reden/2013/2013_07_03_nagel.html

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