因為計生,中國永遠超不過美國,而且很快會被印度趕上

Bloomberg Business Week Jan 17-23, P 10:

(When it comes to comparing China with India) The surprise winner is India, which despite its red tape, corruption, and inefficient politics will grow faster than China both per capita and in overall terms, both banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered) project. China 's topline GDP growth will be inhibited by its one-child policy, which will cause its working-age population to shrink starting in the 2020s decade, says HSBC. India's working age population will grow throughout the forecast period, the bank predicts, ...

翻譯：HSBC 和 Standard Chartered這兩個世界著名銀行預計，印度社會雖然有腐敗和過多的條條框框，但未來經濟在總體和人均方麵都會超過中國。原因很簡單，中國的獨生子女政策會使中國勞動人口在2020開始大量減少。而印度的勞動人口將會在未來一直增長。

 

Forbes Feb 12, 2011, Page 16: Measuring America's Foes

....Looking ahead to the midcentury we can foresee certain welcome adjustments. By 2050 China 's population, while expected to be around 1.4 billion, will probably be dropping and have an aging profile. The U.S. population will be more than 400 million, be steadily rising and have a more youthful profile. It's possible, though unlikely, that by then China's GNP will be larger than America's, but in every other respect the U.S. economy will be well ahead, especially in high tech.

 

到本世紀中,中國將不再對美國領導地位造成任何挑戰.到2050年中國的14億人口將會開始下降,而且非常老齡化.美國人口將會穩定增長到4億,而且有著健康年輕的結構.中國國民總產值雖然有很微小的可能超過美國,但在其他任何方麵,尤其是高科技方麵,中國會遠遠落後於美國. (筆者注:高科技,創新等等都出自年輕人,老齡化社會將在這方麵非常欠缺)