One way to measure investor confidence is to look at the number of IPOs (initial public offerings). Companies go public seeking cash from investors that can be used to fuel growth. When confidence is high, it becomes easier to acquire cash from investors than to borrow from a bank, and the number of IPOs rise.
Sometimes, too many IPOs can indicate a speculative bubble is forming – as was the case in 1999-2000. But more often a high number of IPOs is simply a sign that the economy is expanding. On the other hand, a low number of IPOs points to a lack of confidence. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, the number of IPOs fell to their lowest point since the late 1970s.
China looks set to become the world's largest IPO market this year, in both the number of companies listing and the total funds raised. What's more, China does NOT appear to be in anything like a bubble. Many of the fastest growing Chinese stocks sell for just 5-8X earnings. That's a tiny pittance of the valuations we saw in the 1999-2000 tech bubble.
China's hot IPO market is one more sign of the country's strong economic expansion. In fact, it may even suggest that the center of global capitalism is shifting east.
（from Dr. Stephen Leeb's e-mail）
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