新時代的中國十大神話 - 之二

10 China Myths for the New Decade

Published on January 28, 2010 by Derek Scissors, Ph.D.

Myth or Truth?

Myth #2: China could surpass the U.S. as the largest economy in 10 years.

Truth:

There is a reasonable chance that China will never surpass the U.S.
One element in this forecast is the last 30 years of reported Chinese growth, the second is the last three years of American growth.

The second element is far more important: If American growth remains at the 2007-2009 level, GDP rankings will hardly matter. The U.S. must focus first, second, and third on fixing its own policies--deeply cutting the budget deficit, steadying interest rates, expanding trade, and reducing government regulation, especially taxes.

If the U.S. takes these actions, China may not pass the U.S. at all, much less in the next 10 or 15 years. It is a fundamental mistake to graft the previous 30-year trend onto the next 30. The China of 1949 to 1978 looked nothing like the China of 1979 to 2009, and there are powerful reasons to believe that 2010 to 2040 will be very different again.

The most important and most certain aspect is an aging Chinese population. The last 30 years were characterized by demographic expansion very favorable to growth in the PRC. The next 30 will be generally characterized by demographics unfavorable to growth. The transition from growth-conducive to growth-hostile demographics will begin about the middle of this decade and continue indefinitely.

In 1985, 15-year-olds to 29-year-olds made up 47 percent of the working-age population in China. In 2030, they will make up only 26 percent. By 2035, a daunting 280 million people are projected to be 65 or older. Far fewer people will be working to support far more retirees.

The previous economic challenger to the U.S., Japan, has faced the same problem. Over the past 15 years, the Japanese economy has not grown at all. Over the next 15 years and beyond, China's population structure will become more and more similar to Japan's today.

Before Japan's economic ascent, the Soviet Union was thought to challenge American economic supremacy. An unsustainable emphasis on heavy industry contributed greatly to the Soviet collapse. Among other things, it led to horrific pollution and a decline in life expectancy, where life expectancy is strongly correlated with wealth.

China has the same emphasis on heavy industry and grave pollution problems. The PRC suppresses research into the effect of pollution on life expectancy, but reported birth defects have been rising for at least the past 10 years, including in wealthy provinces.