中國多少年能夠趕上美國？兼談今天中國應有的54精神。

There are lots of talks about this topic, but rarely someone put together some figures and numbers to shed some light into it. That really needs lots of work and knowledge many things. But a few things are really clear:

1. 30年河東，30年河西。from a historical view, there was never a nation that occupied the top forever. So it is for sure that USA will one day comes down from the top.

2. The question is who will be next? My guess would be, China/EU, after that USA may come back. If I have to find another possibility, India may be. To be in the list, a nation has to have a few things: human resource, nature resource, ambition to lead, willingness to lead, 民族認同，曆史認同，宗教認同。China and USA both have every of these, even one or two of them you may argue. EU's major problem is 民族認同 and 曆史認同. Actually today we already see EU's biggest problem is that there is rarely anything that every country inside EU would agree with, which definitely will drag things behind. Look back the history, all strong unions were formed by a single strongest guy through wars. Peacefully unifying so many countries into one such as EU is the first time. You may argue that USA was such kind of case. Then please look back, such as the civil war, USA also needed war to maintain itself a single piece. India for sure lacks 宗教認同, and its relatively small land may be an issue but not too big deal.
3. And another question is, 具體什麽東西中國多少年能夠趕上美國？ Per GDP, at 2008, CIA data says USA ~14T, China ~4T. For this number, many people think it is definitely sure before 2040 China will be top one. There are many many people, serious people say it can be much earlier than that. Look back the PC/cell phone/high way mileage/internet band width/and many indicators in China through the past 20 years, the only conclusion is that you can be much much more optimistic. per Purchasing power parity GDP, 2008 data from IMF, USA 14T and China ~8T. per this PPP-GDP, it can be even earlier.
4. Ambition to lead. ever read 蘭德公司's a paper published years back talking about possible war at Taiwan strait? 意誌（willingness to fight, to take the opportunity, to take the risk and responsibility, whatever), is one of the very few criteria for a nation to success. We were all told since we were still in mommy's tummy that China was once the leader of this planet. no doubt of the ambition. (in reality, just for fun though, if you read history, you have to realize that China was never a global super power. Only USA today reached such position. UK might have had been kind of a global super power). needless to say that China was a the top GDP country for quite a while. Luckier than most other peoples in this world, China largely maintain its territory and culture for thousands years. No one else in this world is as close.
5. talk about ambition, how about USA's? If you are working and living in USA, try to feel that here. In my company and in the industry I am working on, it is so clear this is the biggest problem USA is facing, less ambition to beat competitors from ASIA. The know examples: previous CEO of GM, Wagoner, when someone asked what he thinks that Toyota took over the number one position as auto maker, said it is no longer what GM looks for, it only looks for profitability. No need to say Japanese, Korean is beating GM/FORD/Chrysler to no where. Their mighty electricity car, Volt which planned to come out in 2010-2011, has a one charge 50-mile capability. The ones already on sale in China, such as from PYD, 70-80 mile. Another case, Motorola the once mighty cell phone maker after Nokia just 3-4 year back, far behind Samsung and LG. What TI is doing today? What CISCO is going? Where is Bell lab? Look at them. If you are working in USA as an engineer, you see lots of them.
6. So call democracy, free speech, sure they are good things. but here they have become things that the politicians to abuse all the time. Do the government/politicians tell you the truth? no way. Think about Iraqi war, what USA gains form there. Only loses: reputation (soft power), lives, money, time, confidence. Today does Obama tell truths, not necessary. The best you can say is that he tells less lies. Basically the most of the time they sound out nothing.
whatever, when I get chance I can write more. but one thing is for sure, 富不過三代。

所有跟帖： 

• 一步一個腳印，不是很好。要大躍進幹嗎？ -前路漫漫- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/08/2009 postreply 00:18:13

• good English, but Chinese will be better! -東方邪- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/08/2009 postreply 00:54:28