US Recessions: 1980 - 2007 As debate over whether or not the US is on the verge of a recession, we would remind investors that waiting for the economists to tell us we are in one is probably not the best advice. The time-lines below highlight the four recessions in the US economy since 1980 (red line). In each chart we also show the date (blue dot) when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that the US economy was actually in a recession. While the NBER was pretty timely in its recognition of the recession that began in Summer 1981, they were late to the game in the remaining three. In fact, during the last two recessions, the NBER did not officially declare the start to a recession until the recession had already ended. 10-Year Treasury Yields Have 6th Largest 1-Day Drop Since 1962 As of 3:45 PM ET, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note was down to 3.82%, or 4.42% lower than its close on Friday. Since 1962, this is the 6th largest 1-day drop in the 10-Year yield. As yields drop, equities are supposed to become more attractive, especially ones with dividend yields greater than risk-free Treasuries. When the 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen more than 4% on the day, the S&P 500 has been up 11 out of 14 times over the next week for an average gain of 1.14%, and 9 of 14 times over the next month for an average gain of 2.06%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, on the other hand, usually continues lower over the next week.
