The Maskirovka of a Truce Staged for May 9
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Ternopil’ – After a lengthy tug-of-war, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Vladimir Putin has decided to declare a truce from May 8 to 9, adding that «in the event of Ukraine’s attempts to carry out its criminal plans to disrupt the Victory Day celebrations, the Russian Armed Forces will respond with an attack on the center of Kyiv». At this point, it’s useful to explain to our readers how this latest farce arose, what it involves, and who it will benefit.
Let’s proceed step by step. On the ground, the Russian offensive has stalled in the areas we’ve described here, specifically in that fortress belt of Donbas, which for 12 years has prevented any full occupation of the Donetsk Oblast’. As ISW analysts have also confirmed, Putin’s troops are not only failing to advance but are losing territory. Significantly. They lost another 116 square kilometers in the past month, adding to the at least 500 already documentedin the first quarter of this year.
To clarify, they haven’t retreated much since Ukraine’s penetration of Kursk.
In the few areas where they’ve seen some limited success, they’ve only managed to control an average of 2.9 square kilometers of Ukrainian land per day, compared to 9.76 in 2025. Elsewhere, even the most dedicated Russian bloggers acknowledge it’s «a failed carnage with no way out». The small amount of Ukrainian land reclaimed in April – less than what was lost – has cost the Kremlin roughly 36,600 troops and 4,800 vehicles.
“Long-range sanctions”, as we call in Ukraine the damage inflicted on Russian oil processing facilities by Ukrainian deep strikes, hit record levels in April in terms of distance, intensity, and impact on Russian profits. According to the most conservative estimates cited by President Zelensky, Russia has lost about $7 billion in the oil industry due to these attacks. Just hours ago, the latest serious damage to the AVT-4 crude oil processing plant was confirmed, and the thick plumes of smoke rising from that and other Russian facilities have quickly become memes on social media.
From Kairiv (Kherson) to Dalnii (Belgorod), passing through Melitopol’ (Zaporizhzhia), Olkhovatka (Donetsk), and Rovenki (Luhansk), Russian command posts, missile systems, and depots for drones, ammunition, and logistics equipment are now burning every day. In a strike conducted 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border with the Russian Federation, Ukrainian-made drones hit several Su-57 and Su-34 fighter jets, further depleting the already depleted Russian air fleet.
Moscow responded with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities, trying to overwhelm their air defenses, even in broad daylight. In just ten hours of daylight two days ago, from 8:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m., the Russian Air Force launched 88 high-explosive drones and an Iskander-M missile at them. As Zelensky recalled, last week the Russians used about 1,600 long-range UAVs, along with 1,100 glide bombs and three missiles. Cities like Cherkasy, Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Ternopil’, and others were hit – including in their city centers – in raids targeting gas stations and civilian targets. Over 50 Russian incendiary drones rained down on those two oblast’ capitals alone. In Dnipropetrovsk, similar deadly devices damaged a bus carrying 40 children, while in Kherson, they deliberately targeted two buses carrying more Ukrainian civilians, causing destruction.
Under these conditions, after restricting – and in many cases entirely blocking – his own people’s access to the internet and ability to exchange information, the Russian dictator declared a truce that, based on our firsthand experience, involves a systematic and selective massacre of more civilians and soldiers. This includes attacks with various types of drones that twenty days ago, during a similar imaginary ‘ceasefire’, killed the son of one of our closest friends, as well as one-and-a-half-ton bombs that destroyed the centers of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Along with this bloodshed, which Western media, often influenced by Russian propaganda, shamefully keep silent, it’s important to explain that the supposed ‘ceasefire’ is actually an attempt to reposition Russian forces and equipment to more advantageous locations while Ukrainian weapons remain silent.
Under a relentless barrage that blurs night into day, civilians and military personnel in Ukraine have been under threat seven days a week for over four and a half years.
In this context, the warning of a strike on central Kyiv hangs over us if the display of the hammer, sickle, and Zs alongside the ribbon of St. George does not generate the glory Moscow desires.
Like the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, hit by a Russian missile while medical staff cared for Ukrainian children with cancer? Or the 12-story building eroded to its foundations by another Russian missile, which massacred sleeping civilians in the Solomianskyj district? And how about the religious and institutional buildings – including embassies – destroyed by Russkyj Mir in recent months?
May silence speak for the tragedy at each of those sites, and many others, as footage captures the devastation. If the regime’s pretense – posing as a truce while truly deploying a maskirovka – is clear in its premises, substance, and purpose, it’s helpful to distinguish Russian effectiveness from efficiency: their ability to strike relative to the cost per strike. The Russians are losing efficiency at an alarming rate, but still maintain a high level of destructive power thanks to their overwhelming volume of fire.
This is why it is necessary to strike at their war machine with sanctions that truly work.
In 1.533 days of war, we recorded over 250 videos from ground zero and wrote more than 1,500 articles.
We are doing our best to provide genuine, first-hand reports from zones where almost no press dares to go. This means living in a kill zone constantly. We take the risk, but without your invaluable support, our voices would remain unheard and silent. Without brave people sharing our articles from afar, they would remain unread. Our reports would go unseen, and our efforts would be lost. There’s still a lot of work to do here, as the people around us are also in no better situation.
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We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends
為了5月9日上演的假休戰
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭的前線報道
特爾諾波爾——經過漫長的拉鋸，俄羅斯國防部宣布，弗拉基米爾·普京已決定在5月8日至9日宣布休戰，並稱“若烏克蘭企圖實施其破壞勝利日慶典的犯罪計劃，俄羅斯武裝部隊將對基輔市中心發動攻擊”。此刻，有必要向讀者解釋這出最新鬧劇如何產生、包含什麽內容以及將使誰受益。
（圖：我在哈爾科夫地區的一個十字路口，通往伊久姆和庫皮揚斯克、謝甫琴科沃與巴拉克利亞。所有這些都是烏克蘭的殉難城市 — 版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
我們一步步來講。戰場上，俄軍在我們此前描述的地區進攻已陷入停滯，特別是在那條多年來阻止俄軍對頓涅茨克州全麵占領的頓巴斯堡壘帶。正如美國戰爭研究所（ISW）的分析所證實的那樣，普京的部隊不僅未能推進，反而還在失去領地，顯著的失地。值得注意的是，他們在過去一個月又失去了116平方公裏，加在今年第一季度已記錄的至少500平方公裏之上。
更準確地說，自烏克蘭突破庫爾斯克以來，他們並未有過此大規模撤退。
在為數不多取得有限進展的地區，他們平均每天僅控製約2.9平方公裏的烏克蘭土地，而2025年這一數字為9.76平方公裏。其他地方，甚至最忠實的俄方博主也承認這是“一場無法脫身的失敗屠殺”。四月收複的烏克蘭土地甚少，少於被奪去的麵積，卻讓克裏姆林宮損失了約36,600名部隊人員和4,800輛車輛。
（圖：我在頓涅茨克的一條防無人機走廊旁——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在烏克蘭，我們稱之為“遠程製裁”的，是指烏克蘭深度打擊對俄羅斯石油加工設施造成的損害；這些打擊在四月在射程、強度和對俄羅斯利潤的影響上都創下紀錄。根據澤連斯基援引的最保守估計，俄羅斯在石油行業因這些襲擊損失約70億美元。就在數小時前，對AVT-4原油加工廠的最新一輪嚴重破壞已被證實，濃密的黑煙從該廠及其他俄羅斯設施中升起，迅速在社交媒體上成為熱門圖像。
從凱裏夫（赫爾鬆）到達裏尼（別爾哥羅德），經停梅利托波爾（紮波羅熱）、奧爾科瓦特卡（頓涅茨克）和羅文基（盧甘斯克），俄方指揮所、導彈係統以及無人機、彈藥和後勤設備倉庫如今每天都在燃燒。在距烏俄邊界1700公裏的一次打擊中，烏製無人機擊中了若幹蘇-57和蘇-34戰機，進一步消耗了本已枯竭的俄空軍機群。
（圖：在蘇梅一次俄羅斯襲擊烏克蘭民用基礎設施後Alla和我現場報道——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
莫斯科對烏克蘭的回應是對烏克蘭城市進行地毯式轟炸，試圖擊潰其防空係統，甚至在光天化日下也如此。就在兩天前的十小時白晝中，從早上8:30到下午6:30，俄空軍向這些目標發射了88枚高爆無人機和一枚伊斯坎德爾-M導彈。正如澤連斯基回憶的，上周俄方使用了約1600架遠程無人機，另有1100枚滑翔炸彈和三枚導彈。切爾卡瑟、敖德薩、基輔、哈爾科夫、日托米爾、赫梅利尼茨基、伊萬-弗蘭科夫斯克、第聶伯、克裏維裏赫、紮波羅熱、文尼察、特爾諾皮爾等城市遭襲，包括市中心也在襲擊中遭受打擊，目標涉及加油站和民用目標。僅那兩個州府首府就遭受了50多架俄製燃燒型無人機的轟炸。在第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克，類似致命裝置損壞了一輛載有40名兒童的公交車，而在赫爾鬆，他們故意襲擊了兩輛載有更多烏克蘭平民的公交車，造成毀滅性後果。
（視頻：基輔一次俄方襲擊將一棟12層公寓摧毀至地下室後，我錄下了這些影像——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（視頻：基輔一次俄方襲擊了一個人口密集的曆史遺址後，我錄下了這些影像——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（視頻：Alla和我在特爾諾皮爾錄下這些鏡頭，俄方襲擊擊中了人口高度密集區——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在這些情況下，在限製甚至完全切斷其國民上互聯網和信息交流的能力後，那位俄羅斯獨裁者宣布休戰。根據我們的第一手經驗，這所謂的休戰實際上包含對更多平民與軍人的係統性、選擇性屠殺。包括各種類型的無人機襲擊，二十天前的類似虛構“停火”期間這些無人機曾炸死我們一位最親密朋友的兒子，以及將克拉馬托爾斯克和斯洛維揚斯克市中心夷為平地的1.5噸重炸彈。
除了這血腥殺戮——西方媒體往往受俄宣傳影響而可恥地保持沉默，還需說明，這個所謂的“停火”實際上是俄軍在烏克蘭武器保持沉默時，試圖將軍力與裝備向更有利位置重新部署的偽裝行動。
（圖：Alla與我在烏克蘭頓涅茨克克拉馬托爾斯克機場報道 ——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在連續不斷的炮火中，晝夜難分，烏克蘭的平民與軍人四年半多來每周七天都處於威脅之中。
在此情境下，如果錘子、鐮刀與Z字樣並列聖喬治緞帶的展示不能帶來莫斯科所渴望的榮耀，那麽對基輔市中心的襲擊威脅就像一柄達摩克利斯之劍懸在我們頭上。
比如奧赫瑪蒂特兒童醫院，在醫務人員照料患癌兒童時被俄導彈擊中？又或者索洛米揚斯基區那一棟12層樓樓房被一枚俄導彈夷為平地，將沉睡的平民屠殺？再比如近月來被“俄羅斯世界”摧毀的宗教與機構性建築——包括大使館？
（視頻：俄軍襲擊了基輔“奧赫瑪蒂特”兒科腫瘤醫院後，我錄製了這些影像——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
願那些地點及許多其他地點的悲劇在沉默中訴說，影像記錄著毀滅。如果該政權以“休戰”為幌子實為一場偽裝軍事行動，在其前提、實質與目的上已昭然若揭，那麽區分俄方的有效性與效率便有助於理解：即其打擊能力與每次打擊成本之間的關係。俄軍的效率正在以驚人的速度下降，但憑借其壓倒性的火力規模仍保持巨大的破壞能力。
這就是為何必須對其戰爭機器實施真正有效的製裁。
（圖：Alla與我在烏克蘭切爾尼戈夫的一座墓地報道 ——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
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