本周還有更多相同的事情：烏克蘭加強了無人機行動，進行一些引人注目的襲擊或恐怖表演，以控製媒體的看法並保持自己的活力和相關性。More of the same this week: Ukraine has intensified its drone campaign to carry out some headline-grabbing strike or terror stunt to manage media perceptions and keep themselves looking viable and relevant.
昨晚對俄羅斯普斯科夫附近的克雷斯蒂機場進行的新一輪襲擊是這些努力中的最新一次，更不用說對布良斯克、頓涅茨克的持續襲擊、試圖登陸克裏米亞以及許多其他毫無軍事價值的此類噱頭。A new strike on Russia’s Kresti airfield near Pskov last night was the latest in these efforts, not to mention continual attacks on Bryansk, Donetsk, attempted landings on Crimea, and many other such stunts which have no military value whatsoever.
但讓我們簡單地談談普斯科夫罷工，因為它引發了許多通常的咬牙切齒和“愛國者”的憤怒。該機場停泊著俄羅斯的伊爾76運輸機。最新報告稱，總共有 4 處以上在襲擊中受損，其中 2 處可能被摧毀，如以下視頻所示：But let’s talk about the Pskov strike briefly, as it has generated a lot of the usual gnashing of teeth and ‘patriot’ outrage. The airfield houses Russia’s Il-76 transport planes. The most up to date report claims upwards of 4 total were damaged in the strikes, with 2 of them potentially destroyed, as the following videos show:
然而，今天的新西方衛星照片似乎顯示幾乎沒有損壞：However, new Western satellite photos from today appear to show little to no damage:
首先，讓我們先拋開維基百科給出的俄羅斯伊爾 76 數量為 120 架現役、另外 120 架為儲備、還有 20 架已訂購且可能正在製造的事實。因此，雖然輸掉 2 或 4 場比賽可能會造成相當嚴重的打擊，但這並不是災難性的。更不用說這些飛機實際上並沒有在 SMO 中使用，因為它們是運輸機，而眾所周知，俄羅斯的大部分物流運輸都是通過鐵路和卡車進行的。Il-76 大部分部署在普斯科夫，因為那裏是俄羅斯著名的第 76 普斯科夫傘兵空降部隊駐紮的地方，他們使用這些飛機進行訓練和跳傘。First let’s dispense with the fact that wikipedia gives the number of Russian Il-76s as 120 in active service, another 120 in reserve, with 20 on order and presumably being manufactured. So, while losing 2 or 4 may be a fairly bad hit, it’s not catastrophic. That’s not to even mention that these planes are not really even used in the SMO, as they’re transport planes and Russia does most of its logistics transport via rail and truck as most know. The Il-76s are mostly in Pskov as that’s where Russia’s famed 76th Pskov Paratroopers Airborne unit is stationed, and they use the planes to train with and jump out of.
最新報告表明，這次行動是英國軍情六處計劃了數月之久的。當然，據一些報道稱，需要數月時間協調的事情會造成The latest reports indicate that this operation was planned with British Mi6 for many months. Of course something that took months to coordinate will do 一些some 損害，特別是因為這次襲擊使用了至少 21 架以上的無人機群。據說它們可能是damage, particularly since the attack utilized a mass drone swarm of at least 21+ drones, according to some reports. They were said to possibly be the new 最近成為頭條新聞的澳大利亞新型“紙板”無人機：Australian “card board” drones which have been in headlines recently:
這些無人機幾乎對雷達來說是看不見的，因為紙板基本上對雷達波是有滲透性的。這表明烏克蘭及其西方控製者正在不斷創新並尋找繞過俄羅斯防禦的新方法。但俄羅斯隨後也進行了創新和適應，這就是為什麽你可能在幾個月內不會再次看到如此“成功”的襲擊。These drones are nearly invisible to radar because cardboard is basically porous to radar waves. It shows that Ukraine and their Western controllers are constantly innovating and finding new ways to bypass Russia’s defenses. But Russia subsequently innovates and adapts as well, which is why you likely won’t see such a “successful” strike again for several more months.
還有一個大問題是，這些無人機是如何一路到達距離烏克蘭邊境 600 多公裏的普斯科夫的。有些人聲稱他們來自愛沙尼亞。最近，很多人問我烏克蘭如何對俄羅斯領土進行無人機襲擊。那麽我就借這個情況來稍微說明一下這個問題。There are big questions also about how these drones made it all the way to Pskov, 600km+ from the Ukrainian border. Some are claiming they came from Estonia. Many people have asked me recently, in general, how Ukraine conducts drone strikes on Russian territory. So allow me to use this circumstance to elucidate slightly on this matter.
首先，必須知道的是，西方媒體已經多次證實烏克蘭正在向俄羅斯派出攜帶無人機的破壞分子，這些無人機是從Firstly, it must be known that it was already confirmed by Western media several times that Ukraine is sending saboteurs into Russia armed with drones which are launched from 俄羅斯境內發射的：within Russian territory:
這非常容易做到。你所需要的隻是一個潛伏的特工，或者一個以虛假借口合法進入俄羅斯並購買任意數量合法擁有的現成無人機的人，比如中國的 Mavics 等。這些無人機可以安裝爆炸物並從目標周邊飛出。例如，如果你在一個空軍基地旁邊，你可以在當局弄清楚到底發生了什麽之前，從基地外的圍欄上駕駛一架 FPV 無人機直接飛到一架飛機上並將其炸毀，然後開車離開。This is extremely easy to do. All you have to have is a sleeper agent or someone who crosses over into Russia legally under false pretenses and buys any number of legal-to-own off-the-shelf drones, like Chinese Mavics, etc. These drones can be fitted with explosives and flown right from the perimeter of the target. If you’re next to an airbase for instance, you can fly an FPV drone from the fence outside of the base right onto a plane and blow it up then leave by car long before authorities have figured out what even happened.
事實上，這一點在幾個案例中得到了證實，不僅是很久以前對克裏米亞空軍基地的襲擊，還有對白俄羅斯境內的俄羅斯 A-50 預警機的企圖襲擊。肇事者從基地外駕駛一架 FPV 無人機，但隨後被抓獲。In fact, this exact thing has been confirmed in several of the cases, not only in strikes on Crimean air bases long ago but also on the attempted strike on the Russian A-50 AWACS plane in Belarus. The perpetrator flew an FPV drone from right outside the base but was then caught.
所以我們知道一個事實，至少這種無人機攻擊方式被證實正在被積極使用。另一種更困難的策略是So we know for a fact that at least this one style of drone strike is confirmed as being actively used. The other more difficult tactic is sending larger drones like Ukrainian ‘從烏克蘭境內長距離派遣大型無人機，例如烏克蘭“海狸”無人機。Beaver他們如何穿越數百公裏的俄羅斯領土而不被發現？’ drones over long distances from Ukrainian territory. How can they travel through hundreds of kilometers of Russian territory without being detected?
兩種方式：Two ways:
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首先，它們由碳纖維/輕質複合材料製成，雷達波很難反射。Firstly, they are made out of carbon fiber / light composite materials which are very difficult for radar waves to reflect from.
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它們飛得相對較低，這意味著，憑借雷達地平線的硬科學，隻有在距離雷達裝置隻有幾公裏的地方才能檢測到它們。They fly relatively low which means, by virtue of the hard science of radar horizon, they simply cannot be detected until they’re only a few kilometers away from a radar installation.
對於那些關注我的文章的人來說，您可能還記得我曾多次發布衛星照片，顯示美國 SIGINT 衛星如何僅根據特定頻段的發射來檢測俄羅斯雷達的安裝位置：For those who’ve followed my writings, you may recall several times that I’ve posted satellite photos showing how American SIGINT satellites can detect Russian radar installation positions simply based on their particular band emissions:
之後，他們所要做的就是一個簡單的數學計算：如果物體在 n 高度行駛，雷達隻能在 y 距離處看到 x 大小的物體。因此，他們立即知道雷達地平線的周長是多少，以及無人機需要行駛到哪裏才能“繞過”非探測區域。他們規劃了一條詳細的路徑，該路徑被編程到無人機的衛星導航中，無人機沿著一條獨特的蛇形路徑穿過各個雷達邊緣。After that, all they have to do is a simple mathematical calculation: radar can only see an object of x size at y distance if the object is traveling at n altitude. Thus, they immediately know what the perimeters of the radar horizons are and where the drones need to travel in order to “skirt” the non-detection zones. They plan out a detailed pathway that’s programmed into the drone’s satellite navigation, and the drone follows a unique, serpentine path through the various radar edges.
一個例子來說明它的外觀。假設下圖中的紅色圓圈是 S-300 雷達對在 500 英尺或An example of how that would look. Let’s say in the image below the red circles are all coverage zones of S-300 radars for objects that are flying at 500ft altitude or 以下高度飛行的物體的所有覆蓋區域below。黃色圓圈覆蓋了從大約 500 英尺到 5000 英尺高度飛行的任何物體。紫色圓圈覆蓋 5000 英尺及以上：. The yellow circles are coverage for anything flying from about 500ft to 5000ft altitude. And the purple circles cover 5000ft and upward:
這是一個簡化版本，隻是為了說明這個想法。但正如你所看到的，分層防禦實際上是重疊的，但僅限於紫色區域。大多數防空條令是為冷戰時期的戰術和打擊高空飛行的飛機打擊群而製定的。如果任何在正常高度飛行的普通飛機進入該區域，如果飛機高於 5000 英尺，就會被檢測到，因為根本沒有間隙。This is a simplified version just to illustrate the idea. But as you can see, the layered defense is in fact overlapping, but only in the purple regions. Most air defense doctrine was created for cold war era tactics and combating high flying aircraft strike groups. If any normal plane flying at normal altitudes were to enter that zone, it would be detected as there are no gaps at all, if the plane is above 5000ft.
但由於無人機的飛行高度為 100 英尺，因此上方唯一能檢測到它的圓圈就是紅色圓圈。或者即使它在 1000 英尺處飛行，黃色圓圈也會檢測到它，但它們之間有微小的間隙。通過研究信號攔截衛星雷達的位置，西方合作夥伴可以為烏克蘭無人機繪製藍線所示的路線，這些無人機依偎在黃色圓圈之間，迂回到達北部的莫斯科。But since the drone is flying at a hypothetical 100ft, the only circle above that would detect it would be the red one. Or even if it’s flying at 1000ft, the yellow circle would detect it, but those have slight gaps in between. By studying the placement of the radars from signal intercepting satellites, Western partners can plot a route for Ukraine’s drones as seen by the blue lines, which snuggle in between the yellow circles and circuitously get to Moscow in the north.
此外，無論雷達組織得多麽緊密，許多自然地理、地形和簡單的城市特征都會限製雷達在城市密度較高的地區進行探測。如果無人機飛行高度為 100-200 英尺，但在一般地區有大量丘陵、山脈和建築物，高度都在 200-1000 英尺之間，那麽你猜怎麽著？雷達波到處都會有障礙物，覆蓋範圍也會受到限製。Further, no matter how tightly you organize the radars there are many natural geographical, topographical, and simply urban features which limit radar detection in areas with higher city density. If the drone is flying at 100-200ft, but in the general region there are tons of hills, mountains, and buildings which are all anywhere from 200-1000ft high, then guess what? There will be obstructions to the radar waves everywhere, and limits to the coverage.
您可以通過在各處放置更多係統來彌補這一點，但這當然受到您擁有的係統數量和訓練有素的人員的限製。此外，您還可以通過帶有俯視雷達的 AWACS 式飛機進行 24/7 不間斷監視，從空中獲得覆蓋範圍，但很難知道俄羅斯有限的 AWACS 機隊有多麽緊張。據推測，他們隻有大約 15 架 A-50 飛機，並記得世界各地飛機的標準“任務準備”率在 30-70% 之間。這被定義為在任何給定時間可用或可飛行的飛機的百分比。其餘部分處於持續維護狀態。對於F-22/F-35等更先進的飛機，美國的戰備率低至30%，這意味著隻有30%的機隊可以飛行和運行。You can make up for this by placing many more systems everywhere but of course this is limited by how many systems and trained personnel you have available. Also you can get coverage from the air with a constant 24/7 overwatch of AWACS style planes with look-down radars, but it’s difficult to know how stretched Russia’s limited AWACS fleet is. They supposedly have only about ~15 A-50 planes, and recall that standard “mission readiness” rates for aircraft around the world is anywhere from 30-70%. This is defined as what percentage of aircraft are usable or flyable at any given time. The remainder is in a constant state of maintenance. For more advanced planes like F-22/F-35, the U.S. readiness rate has been as low as 30%, which means only 30% of the fleet can fly and operate.
因此，隻有大約 15 架預警機，無論多少，在任何給定時間都可能隻有一半數量能夠真正飛行，而且它們不僅必須分布在整個烏克蘭前線，而且其中一些是防禦所必需的俄羅斯北部和東部邊境，監視日本海、鄂霍次克海、白令海等地附近的北約。因此理論上，俄羅斯在任何特定時間都可以為烏克蘭部署3-5架預警機。So, with only around 15 AWACS it’s possible that only half that number, give or take, can really fly at any given time, and they have to be not only spread around the entire Ukrainian front, but some of them are required for the defense of the northern and eastern borders of Russia, to watch NATO around the Sea of Japan, Okhotsk, Bering Sea, etc. So theoretically Russia could have as little as 3-5 AWACS for Ukraine at any given time.
請記住，強大的美國本身隻有大約 30 架官方 E-3 哨兵預警機，因此各國通常不會擁有大量此類設備。然而，美國還有更多的 RC-135、E-8、P-8 Orion 等，可以幫助填補具有類似能力的空白。俄羅斯通過 Mig-31 巡邏機填補了這一空白，該機配備強大的俯視模式 Zaslon-M 雷達。Keep in mind the mighty U.S. only has around ~30 official E-3 Sentry AWACS itself, so countries don’t typically have massive amounts of these. However, the U.S. also has some more RC-135s, E-8s, P-8 Orions, etc., which can help fill the gaps with somewhat similar capabilities. Russia fills the gaps by having Mig-31s patrol, which have powerful look-down mode Zaslon-M radars.
最後，我想指出兩件重要的事情。首先，正如我所說，普斯科夫機場幾乎沒有任何軍事用途，甚至與SMO沒有聯係。因此，由於這個弱點，它被專門針對，因為知道它的防禦不那麽好，因為那裏沒有什麽關鍵的東西。請注意，烏克蘭幾乎無法攻擊俄羅斯任何真正重要的機場，如恩格斯機場、迪亞吉列沃機場、奧萊尼亞機場，或靠近前線的機場，如別爾江斯克機場，那裏有數十架前線攻擊直升機。那是因為這些實際上受到了很好的保護。因此，烏克蘭當然選擇了一個可能有機會擊中的不起眼的目標，而且他們仍然花費了“數月”的準備時間來做一些軍事上無關緊要的事情。Lastly, I’d like to point out two important things. First of all, the Pskov airfield as I said has almost no military utility and is not even connected to the SMO. Thus it was targeted specifically due to this weakness, knowing that it’s not as well-defended because there’s nothing critical there. Notice Ukraine has hardly been able to scratch any of Russia’s actual important airfields like Engels, Dyagilevo, Olenya, or the ones near the frontline like Berdiansk, which houses dozens of frontline attack choppers. That’s because these are actually well-protected. So of course Ukraine chooses an obscure target it might stand a chance of hitting, and it still cost them “months” of preparation to do something militarily insignificant.
第二點是這樣的。許多無知的人抱怨道：“俄羅斯的防空能力很弱，如果廉價的烏克蘭無人機能夠繞過他們，想象一下，如果俄羅斯在不久的將來與北約爆發全麵戰爭，北約會怎麽做！俄羅斯不會持續超過一個小時/天/周/等等。”The second point is this. Many ignorant people have whined something along these lines: “Russian air defense is weak, if cheap Ukrainian drones managed to bypass them imagine what NATO would do if Russia ends up in a full-scale war with NATO in the near future! Russia wouldn’t last more than a hour/day/week/etc.”
但他們忽略了一個問題：烏克蘭實際上擁有北約在這種假設的衝突中永遠不會享有的重大優勢。你看，烏克蘭可以享受北約完全衛星主導地位的奢侈，而俄羅斯卻沒有能力因為不想發動第三次世界大戰而將這些資產拿出來。這意味著烏克蘭獲得了一個“作弊代碼”，他們可以在其中看到所有俄羅斯資產並圍繞其計劃一切，繞過俄羅斯防禦等。But here’s the catch they miss: Ukraine actually has a major advantage which NATO would never enjoy in such a hypothetical conflict. You see, Ukraine gets to enjoy the luxury of NATO’s full satellite dominance without Russia’s ability to take those assets out due to not wanting to start WW3. That means Ukraine gets a “cheat code” where they can see all Russian assets and plan everything around that, bypassing Russian defenses, etc.
但如果俄羅斯與北約發生“全麵戰爭”，猜猜哪項資產將首先被摧毀？沒錯——北約的衛星就不會存在。北約將是盲目的，根本沒有能力從遠處看到俄羅斯的AD或其他資產，這意味著即使是烏克蘭對俄羅斯“後方深處”的微弱無人機襲擊也遠遠超出了北約在許多方麵的能力。But if Russia was in a ‘full out war’ against NATO, guess which asset would be the first thing to come down? That’s right—NATO’s satellites wouldn’t exist. NATO would be blind and have no ability whatsoever to see Russia’s AD or other assets from afar, which means that even Ukraine’s puny drone strikes to Russia’s “deep rear” are far more than what NATO would be capable of in many ways.
一些人認為：“但北約擁有數千顆衛星，俄羅斯無法將它們全部擊落。” 他們將 GPS 和星鏈等技術混為一談，後者是遍布地球軌道的小型可批量生產模塊。但就實際的企業級光電或光電衛星而言，他們的數量很少。美國所依賴的巨型光電衛星總共有5顆，每顆價值超過50億美元。這些導彈將在俄羅斯 A-235 Nudol 導彈的燃燒殘骸中墜落，而美國將視而不見。當然，俄羅斯衛星也可能墜落，但俄羅斯是唯一被證明知道如何發動非高科技戰爭的國家。北約同時依賴火炮和多管火箭炮（HIMARS等），後者隻能使用衛星製導彈藥進行射擊。Some argue: “But NATO has thousands of satellites, Russia can’t shoot them all down.” They conflate things like GPS and Starlink, which are small mass-produceable modules that dot the earth’s orbit. But in terms of actual enterprise level optoelectrical or E/O satellites, they have very few. The U.S. has a grand total of 5 giant optoelectrical satellites it relies on, each costing over $5 billion dollars. Those would come down in flaming wrecks to Russian A-235 Nudol missiles and U.S. would be blind. Sure, Russian satellites would likely come down too, but Russia is the only one that’s proven to know how to wage non-hightech war. NATO relies on both artillery and MLRS (HIMARS etc.) that can only shoot with satellite guided munitions. Russia has been accurately hitting Ukrainian targets with pencil-paper and sextant since the start of the war—they don’t need satellites.
最後，考慮到最近與北約的所有這些比較，有趣的是，紀錄片《And lastly, with all these comparisons to NATO lately, it’s funny that this clip from the documentary film 雷斯特雷波》中的這段片段Restrepo已經在頻道播出。它展示了阿富汗戰爭中強大的美國武裝部隊在戰鬥情況下的真實麵貌。看過俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭的英雄事跡後，你真的認為這支軍隊有機會嗎？這是 has hit the channels. It shows what the mighty American armed forces really look like in combat situations, from the Afghan war. After watching the heroism of Russian troops in Ukraine, you really think this army here would stand a chance? And this was 在現代軍隊變成雪花之前的事——想象一下現在有多糟糕：before the army turned snowflake in the modern era—imagine how bad it is now:
另一個要點是，俄羅斯顯然是一支適應性很強的武裝部隊。他們從每一個錯誤中吸取教訓，並不斷實施變革來調整運營。敵人也從不睡覺，也總是在創新，所以這是一場戰場創新的持續力量蠕變遊戲。As another general point, it’s clear that Russia is a highly adaptable armed forces. They learn from every mistake and continually implement changes to finetune operations. The enemy never sleeps either and is always innovating as well, so it’s a continuous power creep game of battlefield innovation.
例如，俄羅斯已經采取了多種措施來阻止未來烏克蘭海軍無人機撞擊刻赤大橋：As an example, Russia has already implemented several tricks to stop future Ukrainian naval drones from hitting the Kerch bridge:
克裏米亞大橋沿岸立即部署了7艘駁船，形成防護屏障，抵禦烏克蘭武裝部隊的神風特攻隊無人艇。Along the Crimean bridge, 7 barges were immediately placed to form a protective barrier against unmanned kamikaze boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
據推測，電纜和鏈條也將在駁船之間伸展，從而為敵方 BEC 形成屏障，一旦再次試圖攻擊橋梁，敵方 BEC 就會落入這個陷阱。It is assumed that cables and chains will also be stretched between the barges, thereby creating a barrier for enemy BECs, which should fall into this trap in the event of another attempt to strike the bridge.
這種設計可能看起來很奇怪和原始，但在夜間和密集的小型武器火力下，無人機操作員可能根本沒有注意到他在哪裏遊泳或在躲避過程中未能成功進行機動。The design may seem strange and primitive, but being at night and under dense small arms fire, the drone operator may simply not notice where he is swimming or maneuver unsuccessfully in the process of evasion.
據報道，俄羅斯不僅在橋上以精確的間隔駐紮駁船，以監視無人機，甚至可能在它們之間懸掛某種反無人機網。但也有消息稱，俄羅斯已開始在戰略要地的淺灣擊沉大型舊船，以建立廉價的天然屏障，將任何潛在的無人機集中到狹窄、易於控製的阻塞點。Reportedly not only has Russia stationed barges all along the bridge at exact intervals, to both watch for drones and possibly even suspend some kind of anti-drone netting between them. But also there’s word that Russia has begun sinking large old ships in the shallow bay there at strategic points to create a cheap natural barrier, funneling any potential drones into narrow, easily controlled chokepoints.
再舉個例子，我最近寫過關於俄羅斯反電池戰領域的討論，以及某些前線的抱怨，俄羅斯需要采取更多措施來提高其反電池能力，因為俄羅斯軍隊抱怨說，唯一真正的、他們麵臨的棘手威脅是來自 AFU 的不間斷炮火。他們可以應對 AFU 的攻擊，但炮兵已經讓他們疲憊不堪。As further example, there’s been recent discussion I’ve written about in the realm of Russian counter-battery warfare and the complaints from certain frontlines that Russia needs to do more to improve its counter-battery capabilities as Russian troops complain that the only real, intractable threat they’re facing is incessant artillery barrages from the AFU. They can handle the AFU’s assaults but the artillery is wearing them thin.
那麽紹伊古做什麽呢？這位所謂“可恨”的國防部長拜訪了俄羅斯反電池係統的頂級製造商，並So what does Shoigu do? The so-called “hated” defense minister visits the top manufacturers of Russian counter-battery systems and 要求他們提高demands for them to increase生產率： production rates:
提醒我為什麽“精神分裂愛國者”又聲稱他如此可怕？顯然，他正在盡自己的職責，通過 MIC 的鏈條將戰場需求轉化為立即可行的結果。Remind me why “schizopatriots” claim he’s so terrible again? He’s clearly doing his job, converting battlefield demands into immediate actionable results through the chains of the MIC.
最後，雖然烏克蘭每季度發動一次襲擊，對甚至對 SMO 沒有任何影響的資產造成中等程度的損害，但俄羅斯卻在同一時間段內摧毀了 AFU 的實際軍事目標。昨晚基輔遭到導彈和無人機的毀滅性打擊：Lastly, while Ukraine achieved one quarterly strike with moderate damage against assets that don’t even have any bearing on the SMO, Russia in the same span of time has devastated the AFU’s actual military targets. Last night Kiev was struck a devastating blow with missiles and drones:
一些消息來源稱，基輔的一個鐵路調車場遭到襲擊。全國各地的許多其他目標也同樣遭到襲擊，包括切爾卡瑟、敖德薩和日托米爾。Some sources say a railroad yard in Kiev was hit. Many other targets throughout the country were likewise hit, in Cherkasy, Odessa, and Zhytomir.
一天前，俄羅斯的空襲炸毀了頓涅茨克市以西梅察洛沃車站前線的一列載有烏克蘭裝備的火車。And a day prior, Russian strikes blew away a train carrying Ukrainian gear to the front in Metsalovo station west of Donetsk city.
除此之外，過去一周還發生了無數其他襲擊事件，這些襲擊事件繼續破壞烏克蘭的基礎設施。This is in addition to countless other strikes in the past week which continue goring Ukrainian infrastructure.
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讓我們繼續討論下一節有關開發事件的內容。Let’s segue into the next section about developing events.
主題繼續圍繞著烏克蘭不久的將來的大規模新動員——一些人認為最早會在九月初：The theme continues to revolve around large new mobilizations slated for Ukraine’s near future—some believe as soon as early September:
由於損失巨大，烏克蘭將從9月初開始全麵動員。首先，他們將聚集來自國有企業和商業企業的所有適齡軍人。同樣的命運等待著學年開始時到達大學的學生。第一個“刀下”將前往基輔認為已經失去的那些地區。人口首先準備“換肉”的地區，然後將城市和村莊夷為平地。這些地區包括切爾尼戈夫、蘇梅、哈爾科夫、第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克、敖德薩、紮波羅熱和尼古拉耶夫地區。Due to the huge losses, total mobilization will begin in Ukraine from the beginning of September. First of all, they will gather all men of military age from state and commercial enterprises. The same fate awaits students who arrive at their universities at the beginning of the academic year. The first" under the knife " will go to those areas that Kiev considers already lost for itself. Regions where the population is first ready to put "for meat", and then to level cities and villages with the face of the earth. These are Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv regions.
發布的文件證明了這一點，顯示烏克蘭每個主要地區都在為大規模動員進程做好準備。就像下麵這樣：This has been backed by the release of documents showing every major Ukrainian region gearing up for a wide-scale mobilization process. Like the following:
我已經在上一篇文章中詳細介紹了它，但這仍然是少數關鍵進展之一。I already covered it at length in the last article, but this does remain one of the few key developments.
他們不打算舉行選舉，但動員工作已經在進行。They do not plan to hold elections, but mobilization is already running.
烏克蘭消息人士寫道，總統辦公室同意總參謀部要求的新一波動員的計劃和方法。秋季期間，應征召20萬名烏克蘭人加入烏克蘭武裝部隊，並計劃在冬春季節招募30萬名烏克蘭人。Ukrainian sources write that the Office of the President agreed with the plans and methods of a new wave of mobilization requested by the General Staff. During the fall, 200,000 Ukrainians should be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and another 300,000 people are planned to be caught in the winter-spring.
根據上述內容，他們的目標是在秋季征召 20 萬人，在冬季征召 30 萬人以上。請記住，正如上次提到的，有多次報道稱烏克蘭目前每月有 1 萬名男子流血。因此According to the above, they will have a target of drafting 200k men for the fall and upwards of another 300k for the winter. Keep in mind, as mentioned last time, there are repeated reports that Ukraine is currently bleeding 10k men per month. So ，為了達到收支平衡just to break even，他們需要從街上籌集一萬美元。, they need to scrounge up 10k from the streets.
那個怎麽樣？例如，我們收到來自烏克蘭消息來源的新報告，如下所示，其中指出烏克蘭每天有 200-500 人死亡和 500-1500 人受傷。據報道，這僅指拉博蒂諾方麵軍，甚至沒有計算哈爾科夫等其他方麵軍的損失：How is that? Well, for instance, we have new reports from Ukrainian sources like the following which states that Ukraine is losing 200-500 dead and 500-1500 wounded per day. Reportedly this was in reference only to the Rabotino front, it doesn’t even count the losses from other fronts like Kharkov:
誠然，這篇文章是在 8 月 18 日發布的，當時的情況可能稍微高一些，但每天有 500 人死亡 x 30 天 = 每月 15,000 人。平分差價但加上其他戰線，你就可以開始了解之前10k的每月補貨成本了。因此，為了獲得 20 萬甚至 30 萬，他們必須真正將動員程度推向新的高度。Granted this was posted on August 18th when perhaps things were slightly more high-intensity, but 500 dead per day x 30 days = 15,000 per month. Split the difference but add other fronts and you can start to understand the earlier 10k monthly replenishment cost. Thus to get 200k or even 300k they’d have to really push mobilization to new heights.
對於那些可能對拉博蒂諾前線的這些數字表示懷疑的人，這裏還有一些關於那裏部署了哪些部隊的入門知識：For those who may doubt such numbers from the Rabotino front, here’s also a little primer on what forces are arrayed there:
烏克蘭軍隊三個月內攻克半個拉博蒂諾村所吸引的兵力數量：The number of troops that the Ukrainian army attracted in three months to capture half of Rabotino village:
第 33 獨立機械化旅 (OMBr)33rd Independent Mechanised Brigade (OMBr)
第47屆UMBR47th UMBR
65 UMBR65th UMBR
第78獨立物資支援營78th Independent Material Support Battalion
第73海事特別行動中心73rd Maritime Special Operations Centre
第10軍：10th Army Corps:
第 116 屆 OMbr116th OMbr
第117 UMBR117th UMBR
118 UMBR118th UMBR
栗色戰術大隊：Maroon Tactical Group:
第46獨立空中機動旅46th Independent Airmobile Brigade
第71獨立獵兵旅71st Independent Jaeger Brigade
第82獨立空降突擊旅82nd Independent Airborne Assault Brigade
第132獨立偵察營132nd Independent Reconnaissance Battalion
第14屆UMBR14th UMBR
第15屆UMBR15th UMBR
國民警衛隊第三作戰旅3rd Operational Brigade of the National Guard
外國雇傭兵和北約特種部隊。Foreign mercenaries and NATO special forces.
因此，6萬名人員參與了攻占一個村莊的行動，其中一半被毀，還有數百件裝備。Thus, 60,000 personnel were involved in the capture of one village, of which half were lost, along with hundreds of pieces of equipment.
北約對戰爭的理解和戰術技巧讓烏克蘭陷入了這樣的境地，結局對霍霍爾人來說會更悲傷，但對所有人來說更有利。NATO's understanding of war and tactical skills have brought Ukraine to this situation, and the ending will be even sadder for the Khohols, but more salutary for all.
另一篇詳細的帖子描述了哪些俄羅斯單位和編隊正在反對他們：And another detailed post which describes which Russian units and formations are opposing them:
“拉博蒂諾附近誰在與誰作戰"Who is fighting against whom near Rabotino
烏克蘭攻擊的最前線是由帕維爾·拉濟季諾夫中校指揮的霍霍爾第 82 獨立空降突擊旅。武器裝備：美國史賽克、英國挑戰者2和德國Marder I。At the forefront of the Ukrainian attack is the 82nd separate airborne assault brigade of Khokhol under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Pavel Raziedinov. Armament: American Stryker, British Challenger 2 and German Marder I.
塔爾納夫斯基將軍領導的烏克蘭攻擊集團“塔夫裏亞”得到了後備力量的加強，這使得烏克蘭空軍在數量上取得了4:1的優勢，在裝甲車和火炮方麵則取得了3:1的優勢。The attacking Ukrainian group "Tavria" of General Tarnavsky is reinforced with reserves, which allowed the UAF to gain a numerical advantage of 4:1, in armored vehicles and artillery 3:1.
因此，在令人不快的比例下，俄羅斯第58集團軍、近衛第42機械化步兵師各團在海軍陸戰隊第810旅和特種部隊第22旅的海軍陸戰隊士兵的支援下開始撤退。An unpleasant ratio, therefore, the Russian 58th Army, regiments of the 42nd Guards Mechanized Rifle Division, supported by marine soldiers from the 810th Marine Brigade and the 22nd Special Forces Brigade, began to retreat.
關於霍克霍爾試圖引進第46獨立空中機動旅和第118機械化旅的額外部隊，我們的第22特種部隊旅和Bars-1、Bars-11、Bars-3和Bars-14四個營反對“薩爾馬特”也開始向東撤退。In connection with Khokhol's attempts to introduce additional units of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade and the 118th Mechanized Brigade, which are opposed by our 22nd Special Forces Brigade and four battalions of Bars-1, Bars-11, Bars-3 and Bars-14 "Sarmat" also began to withdraw to the east.
第76近衛空降師從謝列布良斯基森林調來增援。這是一支極其暴躁的部隊，其指揮官因穿越卡霍瓦大壩而獲得俄羅斯英雄稱號。當時的2022年2月26日，傘兵奪取了第聶伯河附近的橋頭堡，擊退了烏克蘭的7次進攻，摧毀了20多輛BBM部隊。隨後該師在克列梅納亞和斯瓦托沃表現出色。The 76th Guards Airborne Division was transferred to reinforce from the Serebryansky Forest. An extremely toothy unit, the commander of which received the Hero of Russia for crossing the Kakhova dam. Back then, on February 26, 2022, the paratroopers seized a bridgehead near the Dnieper and repulsed 7 Ukrainian attacks, destroying more than 20 BBM units. Then the division performed well at Kremennaya and Svatovo.
第1140炮兵團、第234近衛團和第247托倫團也趕到支援他們的戰友。The 1140th Artillery Regiment, the 234th Guards and the 247th Torun Regiment also arrived to help their colleagues.
你可以想象正在進行什麽樣的割草。關於方圓6公裏的地塊內殘留有120多台敵方裝備的事實，很多人都已經聽說了。”You can imagine what kind of mowing is going on. About the fact that there are more than 120 units of enemy equipment left in a plot of 6 kilometers, many have already heard."
需要注意的重要一點是，自從澤連斯基和北約領導層最近就浪費和驅散其部隊問題發生臭名昭著的“衝突”以來，有報道稱澤連斯基/紮盧日尼現在試圖在某種程度上默許其主人的要求。這意味著增援部隊已從巴赫穆特/克萊謝耶夫卡地區撤出，並被派往拉博蒂諾，以形成一支更大的先頭部隊。The important thing to note is that, since the infamous recent “clash” between Zelensky and NATO leadership about wasting and dissipating his forces, there have been reports that Zelensky/Zaluzhny have now attempted to somewhat acquiesce to their masters’ demands. That means reinforcements have been stripped from the Bakhmut/Klescheyevka area and sent down to Rabotino to form an even bigger spearhead.
對於拉博蒂諾來說，這是個壞消息，但克萊切耶夫卡隊的隊員們享受了短暫的喘息機會，並表示在這些重新定位之後，前線對他們來說已經“安靜”了。For Rabotino that was bad news, but the Klescheyevka guys have enjoyed a brief welcome respite and relay that the front has been ‘quiet’ for them after these reorientations.
然而，即使在付出了所有這些支出之後，俄羅斯前線消息來源報告說，拉博蒂諾雖然被他們拋棄了，但仍然沒有被 AFU 捕獲，並且現在處於一個可能無法擺脫的灰色地帶。原因之一是，與舊馬約爾斯克和其他城鎮一樣，它現在已被摧毀，沒有太多地方可以躲藏。因此，當 AFU 部隊進入時，他們會受到俄羅斯炮火的轟炸，並很快被迫逃離。However, even after all of these expenditures, Russian frontline sources report that Rabotino, while abandoned by them, is still not captured by the AFU and is now in a gray zone from which it may not emerge. One of the reasons is as with Staromayorsk and other towns, it’s now so destroyed that there is not much place to hide. So when AFU units move in they are bombarded by Russian artillery and are quickly forced to flee.
俄羅斯脾氣暴躁的前將軍、現任杜馬代表古魯列夫公開主張用核武器攻擊拉博蒂諾，而前麵描述的大批 AFU 部隊則“聚集”在該地區：Russia’s fiery ex-general and now-Duma deputy Gurulev openly advocated nuking Rabotino while that huge mass of AFU forces described earlier is “bunched up” in the area:
同樣，在東邊的 Staromayork 和 Urozhayne 軸線上，Pushilin 證實烏克蘭仍然無法控製其中任何一個村莊，原因與上述相同，並且被迫嚐試將它們限製在東側：Similarly on the Staromayork and Urozhayne axis to the east, Pushilin confirms how Ukraine is still not able to control either one of those villages for the same reasons as mentioned above, and are forced to try to circumscribe them to the eastern flanks:
正如上麵發布的拉博蒂諾地圖所示，AFU 正在嚐試做同樣的事情，繞向韋爾博韋而不是占領拉博蒂諾。As seen in the Rabotino map posted above, the AFU is trying to do the same there by wrapping around toward Verbove rather than occupying Rabotino.
奧地利軍事分析家賴斯納上校給出了負麵評價，稱自庫爾斯克戰役以來，北約從未見過這樣的防禦工事：Austrian military analyst colonel Reisner gave a negative assessment, saying that NATO has never seen such defensive fortifications since the Battle of Kursk:
為了扭轉局麵，就連《圖片報》也報道了烏克蘭即將到來的動員：To bring it back around, even the Bild is reporting on Ukraine’s upcoming mobilization:
話雖如此，國防部長雷茲尼科夫目前否認了新的動員計劃，但他的話不值得寫在衛生紙上。With that said, defense minister Reznikov has for now denied plans for a new mobilization, but his word isn’t worth the toilet paper it’s written on.
俄羅斯也許會等著看烏克蘭能撈到多少人來決定他們自己是否需要進行動員？畢竟，Could Russia perhaps be waiting to see how many men Ukraine manages to fish up to decide whether they themselves need to do a mobilization? After all, Russia would love to not 如果沒有必要，俄羅斯寧願不進行動員。have但如果烏克蘭真的捕撈 50 萬人（值得懷疑），他們可能別無選擇。最終，我們可能會看到去年的另一場重演：雙方在秋季和冬季大力動員，為春季的大規模行動做準備。 to do a mobilization if there’s no need. But were Ukraine to actually fish up 500k men (doubtful) they may have no choice. Ultimately we may see another re-run of last year: where both sides mobilize heavily during the fall and winter to prepare for big spring action.
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世界正在快速變化。未來一兩年可能是我們一生中最重要、最多事的時期。不僅一場曆史性的美國大選即將到來，最終可能導致內戰，而且全球地緣政治格局也正在經曆幾十年來最重大的重組。The world is changing fast. The next year or two promises to potentially be the most momentous and eventful of our entire lifetimes. Not only is there an historic American election coming up which may end up culminating in civil war, but the global geopolitical scene is seeing its most significant restructuring in decades.
非洲國家加蓬現已成為最新一個經曆反殖民政變的國家，俄羅斯/中國可能在其中發揮作用，因為這些事件的結合不可能是簡單的“巧合”。加蓬總統發出絕望的懇求，懇求法國和西方世界拯救他：The African country of Gabon has now become the latest to undergo an anti-colonial coup, and there could be a Russian/Chinese hand at play because the confluence of such events cannot be simple ‘coincidence.’ The Gabonese president issued a desperate plea, begging France and the Western world to save him:
該國公民站出來支持軍政府軍隊： The country’s citizens came out in support of the junta troops:
現在有報道稱，喀麥隆下一步將要發生政變，其領導層已經在緊急改組軍事高層，以防止政變發生。Now there are reports that Cameroon is set for a coup next, and its leadership is already undergoing an emergency reshuffling of the military upper echelons in order to prevent it.
然而，其他報道則聲稱加蓬政變隻是西方帝國主義自食其果，因為據一些人說，軍政府領導人是由美國培育並代表美國利益的：However, other reports claim that the Gabon coup is just Western imperialists eating their own as the junta leader, according to some, has been groomed by the U.S. and represents American interests:
但為什麽一個親美的將軍會推翻一個親法的總統呢？But why did a pro-American general overthrow a pro-French president?
法國情報局領導層對此的解釋是，根據美國人的說法，法國當局不再能夠在其控製的領土上有效保護包括美國在內的西方集體的利益。因此，白宮決定將局勢掌握在自己手中，從法國人手中奪取主動權。The leadership of the French intelligence DGSE explains this by the fact that, according to the Americans, the French authorities are no longer able to effectively protect the interests of the collective West, including the United States, in the territory under their control. Therefore, the White House decided to take the situation into their own hands and seize the initiative from the French.
與此同時，尼日爾軍政府切斷了法國領事館的供水和供應，法國領事館拒絕離開該國，理由是他們隻聽從“合法”總統的命令。Meanwhile, Niger’s junta has cut off water and supplies to the French consulate which has refused to leave the country, citing that they only take orders from the ‘legitimate’ president.
事實上，這些曆史性的運動緊隨金磚國家的重大發展而來，這意味著到明年這個時候，世界將被重塑，西方列強將以前所未有的方式衰落。The fact that these historic movements are coming on the heels of the major BRICS developments means that by this time next year the world will have been reshaped, with Western powers waning like never before.
這是為了對俄羅斯 SMO 正在進行的事件提供一些視角。雖然有些人可能認為進展緩慢，但我堅持這樣的立場：SMO 事件隻是普京和其他人在全球地緣政治框架幕後實施的真正陰謀的次要背景。This is to give a bit of perspective to ongoing events of the Russian SMO. While some may consider progress to be slow, I stand by the position that the events of the SMO are merely the minor backdrop to the real machinations Putin and others are carrying out behind the scenes of the global geopolitical framework.
例如，俄羅斯顯然For instance, Russia has apparently 已經開始already begun shipping通過一種新型的“一帶一路”將新集裝箱經由伊朗運送到沙特阿拉伯： new containers to Saudi Arabia by way of Iran in a new sort of one belt one road:
1）當埃及加入金磚國家時，最重要的貿易路線之一蘇伊士運河將基本上受到金磚國家的影響。1) When Egypt joins BRICS the Suez Canal, one of the most important trade routes will be, will be essentially under their influence.
2）此外，伊朗第二條運輸走廊已經啟動。2) In addition, a second transport corridor Iran has been launched.
第一列裝有36個集裝箱的過境列車通過英什-布倫邊境檢查站進入伊朗。隨後貨物運往伊朗阿巴斯港，再通過海運至吉達港。The first transit train of 36 containers with cargo entered Iran through the Inche-Burun border checkpoint. Then the goods went to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas to be sent by sea to the port of Jeddah.
新的物流路線使從俄羅斯到亞洲國家的運輸速度提高了一倍，而且價格也更便宜。印度在該項目上投資了約21億美元，但部分貨物將運往包括沙特阿拉伯在內的其他國家。The new logistics route makes transportation from Russia to Asian countries twice as fast and also cheaper. India has invested about $2.1 billion in the project, but some of the cargo will go to other countries, including Saudi Arabia.
南北運輸走廊項目早在 2000 年就已開發，作為通過蘇伊士運河運輸的替代方案。The North-South transport corridor project was developed back in 2000 as an alternative to deliveries through the Suez Canal.
西方現在處於雙輸的局麵。例如，即使他們支持西非經共體對尼日爾或其他國家采取軍事行動，他們不僅會向非洲國家而且也會向世界其他國家揭露重大的虛偽，這隻會進一步降低西方的地位，迫使更多國家與世界脫鉤。他們並加入新的多極秩序。西方不僅會展示他們赤裸裸的殖民主義，而且會揭露他們如何虛偽地支持針對非洲一個主權國家的軍事行動，同時譴責在烏克蘭采取的同樣行動。回想一下，俄羅斯的行動可以被視為對一場非法政變的幹預，這場政變推翻了民選的烏克蘭領導人；西方怎麽可能一邊譴責非洲政變並支持通過軍事行動扭轉政變，一邊支持烏克蘭政變，同時又譴責軍事行動扭轉政變？The West is now in a lose-lose situation. Even if they back an ECOWAS military action against Niger or others, for instance, they will expose major hypocrisy not only to African countries but to the rest of the world which will merely bring down the West’s standing even more, push further countries to disconnect from them and join the new multipolar order. Not only will the West show their naked colonialism but it will be brought to light how they hypocritically back military action against a sovereign nation in Africa while condemning the same exact action in Ukraine. Recall that Russia’s actions can be viewed as an intervention of an illegal coup which ousted the democratically elected Ukrainian leader; how could the West condemn the coup in Africa and support its reversal via military action while supporting the coup in Ukraine while condemning the military action to reverse the coup 那裏there？?
世界各地繼續發生進一步的運動：Further movements continue around the world:
亞洲遠離美元的下一步Asia’s next step away from dollar
據《日經新聞》報道，越南、菲律賓和文萊將與其他主要東南亞經濟體一起建立互聯的二維碼支付係統，旨在減少對美元的依賴。( Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei will join other major Southeast Asian economies in an interconnected QR code payment system that aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar - Nikkei reported. (https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-Philippines-and-Brunei-to-join-cross-border-QR- paymenthttps://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-Philippines-and-Brunei-to-join-cross-border-QR-payment-scheme -scheme ))
印度尼西亞、泰國、馬來西亞和新加坡此前也加入了同一倡議。Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore have previously joined the same initiative.
通過該係統的付款將以當地貨幣進行，這意味著在泰國使用印尼應用程序進行的付款將直接兌換成盧比和泰銖，繞過美元作為中介。Payments through the system will be made in local currency, meaning payments in Thailand using the Indonesian app will be directly exchanged into rupiahs and baht, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary.
接下來，各國央行將尋求將該網絡與世界各地的其他區域集群連接起來，並最終將相同的結構引入實時銀行轉賬甚至央行數字貨幣。Next, the central banks will seek to link this network with other regional clusters around the world, and bring the same structure to real-time bank transfers and even central bank digital currencies eventually.
以下是Here is 一位分析師one analyst’s對絕望的西方正在采取哪些行動作為最後一口氣以保持其日益下滑的實力的有趣看法。他認為他們正在轉向某種形式的“元殖民主義”或全球的超區域化，並給出了俄羅斯如何應對這種情況的處方： interesting take on what actions the desperate West is taking as a last gasp to hang on to their slipping power. He believes they are shifting to a form of ‘meta-colonialism’ or ultra-regionalization of the entire globe, and gives a prescription for how that can be countered by Russia:
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西方越來越多地以反殖民鬥爭為借口，對曆史國家進行各種分裂。More and more often, under the pretext of anti-colonial struggle, the West offers all sorts of divisions of historical states.
他們想要分裂伊朗、中國、俄羅斯、印度等國家。They would llike to break up countries such as Iran, China, Russia, India, etc.
舊的殖民原則——“分而治之”並沒有消失。The old colonial principle - "divide and rule" has not gone away.
在殖民主義和新殖民主義衰落之後，西方正在為“元殖民主義”做準備。After the decline of colonialism and neo-colonialism, the West is preparing for "meta-colonialism".
他們希望對整個地球領土進行破壞和區域化，同時保留一個相對較大的政治實體。他們正在將東方衛生卡轉移到我們曆史悠久的土地上，將我們擠出歐洲。They want destruction and regionalization for the entire territory of the earth, while remaining a relatively large political entity. They are shifting their Eastern Sanitary Cardon to our historical lands, squeezing us out of Europe.
他們的算法是：大國家——美國>中等國家法國>小國家波蘭>小拉脫維亞>無國籍地區英格曼蘭等等。Their algorithm: a large state - the United States> a medium state France> a small state Poland> a trifle Latvia> a stateless region of Ingermanland and so on.
這是他們對21世紀的看法。我們可以用什麽來反對元殖民主義？從我們的角度來看，世界地圖應該是什麽樣子？This is their view of the 21st century. And what can we oppose to metacolonialism? What should the world map look like from our point of view?
對我們來說唯一的拯救將是鞏固和建立帝國。我們的世界地圖應該是這樣的。The only salvation for us will be consolidation and empire building. Our world map should look like this.
1.俄羅斯聯盟-從布列斯特到符拉迪沃斯托克（白俄羅斯、俄羅斯、烏克蘭、哈薩克斯坦）1. Russian Union - from Brest to Vladivostok (Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan)
2. 將我們與西方之間的衛生警戒線轉移到東歐和南歐領土。2. Transfer of the cordon sanitaire between us and the West to the territory of Eastern and Southern Europe.
3.在斯拉夫曆史定居點的領土上建立大型友好的斯拉夫國家！那是大型聯邦州。3. Creation of large friendly Slavic states on the territory of the historical settlement of the Slavs! That is large federal states.
4.大南斯拉夫（前南斯拉夫+保加利亞+馬其頓+羅馬尼亞）以塞爾維亞為中心。4. Greater Yugoslavia (former Yugoslavia + Bulgaria + Macedonia + Romania) anchored around Serbia.
5.大西斯拉夫（前東德+波蘭+捷克斯洛伐克+匈牙利+烏克蘭西部和外喀爾巴阡）以匈牙利人、東德人和……波蘭人為基礎，這不足為奇。5. Great Western Slavia (former GDR + Poland + Czechoslovakia + Hungary + Western Ukraine and Transcarpathia) based on Hungarians, East Germans and ... Poles, no wonder.
6.西歐和整個西方的區域化。巴伐利亞、朗格多克、加利西亞、蘇格蘭、皮埃蒙特和德克薩斯共和國。6. Regionalization of Western Europe and the West as a whole. Bavaria, Languedoc, Galicia, Scotland, Piedmont and the Republic of Texas.
隻有這樣的結構才能將世界從元殖民主義中拯救出來。將在我們的大陸上建立持久的和平與安寧。Only such a construction will save the world from metacolonialism. Will establish lasting peace and tranquility on our continent.
你說這隻是一個夢嗎？夢想成真。50年後，地圖將是這個樣子。Are you saying this is just a dream? Dreams Come True. In 50 years, the map will look exactly like this.
回想一下我上次發布的與北約有聯係的瘋子費林格，他呼籲分裂巴西：Recall the NATO-linked madman Fehlinger whose calls to break up Brazil I posted last time:
我不確定我是否同意東方大國會像西方試圖對他們所做的那樣推動或實現西方的巴爾幹化，但是任何人都可以肯定地看到權力中心正在迅速而徹底地向東方I’m not sure I agree that the eastern powers will push for or achieve the same balkanization of the West as the West attempts to do on them, however certainly anyone can see that the power center is shifting 轉移rapidly。 and drastically to the East.
當你把所有最新進展加起來時，你就會發現西方的末日。西方的問題在於，隨著它們慢慢過渡到發達的服務經濟體，它們一直依賴其他國家的自然資源以及後來的製造業生存。為了實現這一目標，他們必須將所有自然資源豐富的發展中國家置於自己的控製之下。當你搖晃船時，看到有多少帝國主義齧齒動物倉皇逃竄，真是令人著迷。例如，加蓬政變一發生，立即就有報道稱，道達爾石油集團的法國工人被派出該國，法國礦業公司埃赫曼 (Eramet) 也受到幹擾。西方帝國主義的巨大擴張一直在我們眼皮子底下存在，融入到環境中，有些人現在才發現它們是多麽徹底地滲透到非洲大陸。When you add all the latest developments up, it spells doom for the West. The problem with the West is they have always subsisted on the natural resources, and later the manufacturing, of others as they slowly transitioned into developed service economies. In order to achieve this they had to keep all the developing natural-resource-rich nations under their thumb. It’s fascinating to see how many imperialist rodents scurry out when you shake the ship. For instance, as soon as the Gabon coup happened, reports immediately came of French workers for the Total oil conglomerate sent fleeing from the country, as well as disruptions for French mining corp Eramet. The vast imperialist overreach of the West has subsisted under our noses, blended into the environment and some are only now discovering how completely they pervaded the African continent. Every African nation is overrun with Western militaries, Western big oil conglomerates, etc.
這就是為什麽現在垂死的西方拚命地爭先恐後地分裂烏克蘭，就像禿鷹在路上被撞死一樣：It’s why now the dying West is desperately scrambling to pick apart Ukraine like vultures on roadkill:
法國顯然甚至懇求或脅迫印度在金磚國家峰會上否決阿爾及利亞。他們害怕失去更多：France apparently even begged or coerced India into vetoing Algeria at the BRICS summit. They’re terrified of losing more:
對他們來說，這是一個小小的安慰和勝利，但與他們目前所失去的以及金磚國家總體上所獲得的相比，這算不了什麽。在明年的峰會上，它隻會增長，也許到那時阿爾及利亞就會加入，盡管越來越無關緊要的西方國家對此表示不滿。A small consolation and victory for them, but nothing compared to what they are currently losing and what BRICS has gained in general. At next year’s summit it will only grow and perhaps by then Algeria will have joined despite the kvetching of the increasingly-irrelevant West.
事實上，Rybar 報道說，現在巴爾幹地區開始表示有興趣加入金磚國家：In fact Rybar reports that now the Balkans are beginning to signal interest in joining the BRICS:
在最近約翰內斯堡峰會後發表有關擴大該國際組織的聲明的背景下，巴爾幹半島有人呼籲加入該組織。Against the background of statements about the expansion of the international organization following the recent summit in Johannesburg, there were calls for accession from the Balkan Peninsula.
???? 塞爾維亞“社會主義運動”黨最近提議開始致力於加入金磚國家。其代表將向議會提交一份決議草案，根據該決議草案，塞爾維亞加入金磚國家將成為“所謂的歐盟之路的明確替代方案”。該黨與執政的塞爾維亞進步黨（SNS）結成聯盟，由亞曆山大·武林（Alexander Vulin）領導，他也是 BIA 情報部門的負責人。The Serbian party "Movement of Socialists" recently proposed to start working on joining the BRICS. Its deputies will send a draft resolution to parliament, according to which BRICS membership will become for Serbia "a clear alternative to the so-called path to the European Union." The party is in a coalition with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and is led by Alexander Vulin, who also heads the intelligence department of the BIA.
?? 繼最近因毫不掩飾的親俄立場和歐洲懷疑主義而被列入美國製裁名單的瓦林之後，波斯尼亞?? Following Vulin, who recently added to the US sanctions list due to his unconcealed pro-Russian position and Euroskepticism, 和黑塞哥維那境內的塞族共和國總統也致電 (https://t.me/rtbalkan_ru/第2366章）加入金磚國家。the president of the Republika Srpska, an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, also called (https://t.me/rtbalkan_ru/2366) for joining the BRICS.
米洛拉德·多迪克表示，布魯塞爾不斷提出新的、不明確的加入歐盟條件。“According to Milorad Dodik, from Brussels is constantly coming up with new and unclear conditions for joining the EU. “金磚國家會比歐盟更早接受我們The BRICS will accept us earlier than the EU，”波斯尼亞塞族領導人嘲笑道，並承諾將在未來幾天向波斯尼亞和黑塞哥維那當局提交一份提案，以考慮該倡議。,” the leader of the Bosnian Serbs mocked and promised to send a proposal to the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina to consider the initiative in the coming days.
然而，塞爾維亞和塞族共和國並不是前南斯拉夫唯一對歐洲一體化進程曠日持久感到憤怒的國家。“團結維護全球安全”論壇近日在風景如畫的斯洛文尼亞布萊德湖舉行。歐洲理事會主席查爾斯·米歇爾承諾到 2030 年歡迎新的歐盟成員國，但巴爾幹領導人的聲明清楚地表明了普遍的懷疑程度。 However, Serbia and the Republika Srpska are far from the only ones in the former Yugoslavia who are outraged by the protracted process of European integration. The forum "Solidarity for Global Security" was recently held on the picturesque Slovenian Lake Bled. European Council President Charles Michel has pledged to welcome new EU members by 2030, but statements by Balkan leaders are a pretty clear indication of the level of general skepticism.
?? 正如塞爾維亞總理安娜·布爾納比奇（Ana Brnabic）所說，“進球的界限”在不斷變化。阿爾巴尼亞總理埃迪·拉馬在評論歐洲一體化的漫長進程時顯得更加詼諧。“我們似乎是在公共汽車上拖著自己的腳步，但它仍然比俄羅斯飛機更好。” 拉馬和布爾納比奇的北馬其頓同事援引民意調查顯示，反對加入歐盟的公民數量已經達到該國人口的80%。?? As Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic so aptly put it, “the boundaries of the goal to score a goal” are constantly shifting. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, commenting on the protracted process of European integration, tried to be even more witty. “We seem to be dragging ourselves in a bus, but still it is preferable to a Russian plane.” A colleague of Rama and Brnabic from North Macedonia cited opinion polls, according to which the number of citizens opposed to joining the EU has already reached 80% of the country's population.
社會學家最近在塞爾維亞進行的民意調查也得出了大致相同的指標，而且歐洲懷疑論者的數量每天都在增加。Approximately the same indicators were obtained by sociologists as a result of recent polls in Serbia, and the number of eurosceptics is growing every day. 因此，舉行公投加入金磚國家的問題不再是夢想家的幻想，很可能在不久的將來成為現實。So the issue of holding a referendum on joining the BRICS no longer seems like a fantasy of dreamers and may well become a reality in the foreseeable future.
現在，Now 普京已同意Putin has agreed計劃於 10 月在中國舉辦一次重要的“一帶一路”論壇，這將進一步鞏固發展： to intend a major belt and road forum in China in October which will further solidify developments:
對於那些感興趣的人來說，鑒於西方很快就失去了烏克蘭冒險，佩佩·For those interested, in light of the West’s soon lost Ukrainian adventure, 埃斯科瓦爾（Pepe Escobar）發表了一篇新文章Pepe Escobar has a new article，探討西方列強的下一場“偉大遊戲”將在哪裏匯聚。在他看來，就是中亞，即哈薩克斯坦。可見西方的魔爪在這個資源豐富的國家紮得有多深： on where the next “great game” for Western powers will converge. In his opinion, it is central Asia, namely Kazakhstan. One can see how deeply the West’s claws are embedded in that resource-rich country:
就像我說的，隨著西方在恐慌中爭先恐後地堅持下去，事情現在正在迅速發展。Like I said, things are now moving fast as the West scrambles in panic to cling on.
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最後一些不同的項目。A few last disparate items.
俄羅斯中將維克托·索博列夫表示，瓦格納將“不複存在”：Russian Lt. General Viktor Sobolev said that Wagner will ‘cease to exist’:
??”瓦格納集團將不複存在。這些戰士將能夠進入平民生活或與國防部簽訂合同。” ——維克托·索博列夫中將。??”The Wagner Group will cease to exist. The fighters will be able to go into civilian life or sign a contract with the Ministry of defense.” —Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev.
“這是非法武裝組織<……>國家中不應該有任何不隸屬於國家的武裝人員。“This is an illegal armed formation <…> There should not be any armed people in the state who are not subordinate to the state.
結果，這導致了叛亂。我們正處於內戰的邊緣，”國家杜馬代表說。As a result, this led to a rebellion. We were on the verge of a civil war,” said the State Duma deputy.
他還澄清，隻有那些沒有參與叛亂的瓦格納分子才能與國防部簽訂合同He also clarified that only those Wagnerites who did not participate in the rebellion can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense
這是一個有趣的時刻，關於瓦格納的一切謠言仍在流傳。西方繼續鼓吹瘋狂的理論：This comes at an interesting time when rumors still swirl about everything in relation to Wagner. The West continues to fan crazy theories:
但有時他們聽起來並不那麽瘋狂，就像今天，瓦格納附屬頻道發布了一段視頻，據報道，普裏戈任於 8 月 20 日在非洲，就在他命運般地飛回莫斯科的幾天前，他後來在那裏去世了。在視頻中，他令人不安地反思了他的“清算”：But then at times they don’t sound so crazy, like today when a Wagner-affiliated channel released a video showing Prigozhin reportedly on August 20th in Africa, mere days before his fateful flight back to Moscow where he later died. In the video he unsettlingly reflects upon his “liquidation”:
鑒於他是一個容易偽裝和各種詭計的人，也許他的假定死亡並不像看上去那樣，真的可以被認為是牽強的嗎？畢竟，許多人認為他在聖彼得堡迅速舉行且掩蓋的葬禮有些“不對勁”，參加者相對較少。更不用說，據說飛機墜毀地點的土壤已經被推土機鏟走了。Given that he’s a man predisposed to disguises and trickery of every sort, can it really be considered far-fetched that perhaps his putative death is not as it seems? After all, many remarked there was something “off” about his swiftly-held and covered up funeral in St. Petersburg, which saw relatively few attendees. Not to mention that the crash site of the plane was said to have had its soil removed by bulldozers.
“這就是葉夫根尼·普裏戈任飛機墜毀地點現在的樣子。由於某種原因，所有的土壤都被推土機鏟走了並運走了”"This is how the crash site of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane looks now. For some reason, all the soil was removed by bulldozers and taken out"
已經有關於普裏戈任在馬裏目擊事件的報道，當然幾乎可以肯定是假的。但請回想一下，普裏戈任實際上在 2019 年剛果的另一場飛機失事中也被宣布死亡，後來又活著回來了。這場衝突經曆了我們這個時代一些最奇怪的曲折——如果看到事情再次發生奇怪的曲折，我不會感到驚訝。There have already been reports of Prigozhin sightings in Mali, almost certainly fake of course. But recall that Prigozhin had actually been similarly declared dead in another 2019 plane crash in the Congo, later resurfacing alive. The conflict has seen some of the strangest twists and turns of our time—I won’t be surprised to see things take another bizarre twist down the line.
對於那些對這個傳奇的結局感興趣的人：For those interested in the closure of the saga:
瓦格納私人軍事連的領導人葉夫根尼·普裏戈任（Evgeny Prigozhin）被安葬在聖彼得堡的波羅霍夫斯科耶公墓。The leader of the Wagner Private Military Company, Evgeny Prigozhin, has been laid to rest at the Porokhovskoye cemetery in St. Petersburg.
葬禮閉門舉行，隻有普裏戈任的近親和朋友參加。The funeral ceremony was held behind closed doors, with only close relatives and friends of Prigozhin in attendance.
他墳墓上的匾額摘自The plaque at his grave is a passage taken from a 布羅茨基Brodsky poem的一首詩：:
“..母親對基督說："..Mother says to Christ:
- 你是我的兒子還是我的上帝？你被釘在十字架上。我將如何回家？我將如何在不理解的情況下跨過門檻，不決定你是我的兒子還是上帝。你是死是活？- Are you my son or my God? You are nailed to the cross. How will I go home? How I will step over the threshold without understanding, without deciding if you are my son or God. Are you dead or alive?
他告訴她：He tells her back:
-死或活，沒有區別。兒子或上帝，我是你的”... - dead or alive, no difference. Son or God, I am yours"...
????
據說烏特金將於今天 8 月 31 日晚些時候被埋葬在莫斯科的梅季希國家紀念公墓——畢竟，在瓦格納任職之前，他是一名真正獲得勳章的俄羅斯軍人。Utkin is said to be buried later today August 31st, at the national Mytishchi memorial cemetery in Moscow—after all, he was an actual decorated Russian servicemen prior to his Wagner tenure.
美國政界人士繼續表達這樣的立場：利用烏克蘭人作為炮灰與俄羅斯作戰，而不必冒美國軍隊的風險，這是理想的選擇，也是戰爭的真正原因：American politicians continue to express the position that using Ukrainians as cannonfodder to fight Russia without having to risk American troops is ideal, and is the real reason for the war:
與此同時，關於令人反感的西方觀點，我們繼續認為對莫斯科的恐怖襲擊是可以接受的：Meanwhile, on the topic of quite repulsive Western views, we have the continued characterization of terror strikes on Moscow as acceptable:
對於一家美國報紙來說，貼出一張因神風特攻隊襲擊而受損的摩天大樓的照片，並附上積極或接受的標題，這隻是虛偽的頂峰。For a U.S. newspaper to literally post a photo of a skyscraper damaged by a kamikaze strike along with a positive or accepting headline is just the pinnacle of hypocrisy.
但你能對這些人有什麽期望呢？But what can you expect from these people?
下一個：Next:
盡管烏克蘭因擊中一些空飛機而幸災樂禍，但俄羅斯最近實際上對烏克蘭飛行員造成了嚴重的減員。發生了一連串的擊落事件，導致大量飛行員喪生：While Ukraine gloats over hitting some empty planes, Russia has actually effected serious attrition on Ukrainian pilots recently. There’s been a spate of shoot downs with a lot of pilots lost:
一種說法是，一架俄羅斯 Su-35 同時擊落了兩架 Mi-8。這是針對那些聲稱俄羅斯空中力量沒有巡邏/運行或試圖擊落UA空中力量薄弱殘骸的人的。One version is that a Russian Su-35 shot down two of the Mi-8s at once. This is for those people who claim Russian airpower isn’t patrolling/operating or trying to shoot down the feeble remains of UA’s airpower.
就在兩天前，有消息稱，烏克蘭西部的一些特技表演導致 3 名著名飛行員在 L-39 教練機相撞時喪生：This comes only two days after the news that some Ukrainian stunt in the west of the country caused 3 notable and decorated pilots to be killed when their trainer L-39 planes crashed into each other:
最後，中國人民繼續以公開或微妙的方式表達對俄羅斯SMO的支持：Lastly, Chinese people continue to show their support, both overtly and in subtle ways, for the Russian SMO:
中國支持俄羅斯！China supports Russia!
在與中國接壤的布拉戈維申斯克，居民看到了這種構圖。最有趣的是，它是中國人製作的，展示了我們在邊界另一邊的一麵。In Blagoveshchensk, which is on the border with China, residents saw this composition. The most interesting thing is that it was made by the Chinese and shows our side on the other side of the border.
ps Substack 宣布了一個新的支付方式係統，他們顯然正在擴展您可以支付的方式類型。將來他們打算有更多的選擇，但現在，如果您是因為特定的信用卡自動付款功能而對訂閱持觀望態度的人之一，請閱讀他們的新方法，看看它是否適合您：p.s. Substack has announced a new system of payment methods where they are apparently expanding the types of ways you can pay. In the future they intend to have even more options, but for now, if you were one of the people on the fence about subscribing because of the specific credit card autopay feature, read up on their new methods and see if it suits you: https ://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/18687769631252https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/18687769631252
感謝大家一直以來的支持！Thanks to all for the continued support!
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（穀歌翻譯：SITREP 8/30/23: Ukraine Smokescreens Failures With Meaningless Deep-strikes）
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