Only approved cases will consume visa number. Majority of China BEC cases were either (1) pending in BEC or (2) Pending at I-485. All these BEC cases (no matter in BEC or pending at 485) will use China visa number in the future. Therefore, the estimation based on only cases still held by BEC is totally wrong. Cut-off date movements for Chinese EB2 in last fiscal year have been greater than might ordinarily be expected, in an effort to maximize number use within the annual numerical limits because the majority of the Chinese cases ted within 2006 can’t get namecheck cleared in the same year. Even worse thing is: these are significant cases with 485 RD around 2004-2005 that were still stuck in namecheck. These old cases will also use the limit visa number allotted to china EB2.
The significant impact of BEC cases on Chinese EB-2 cut-off date will be next fiscal year (2008).
I am sorry to discourage somebody. However, this may be reality. Hopefully, I am wrong.