I think so too!

DOS official explaination for the cut-off date is: USCIS officers are responsible to provide the data: like a table lists how many cases are ready for adjudication with their PD. Then DOS will look at the available visa number to determine the cut-off date.

But obviously DOS did not simply follow this. Last october is a perfect example: they just EXPECT there will be large number of cases ready to get approved and set a very early cut-off, even for EB1. Maybe it is because DOS get information from DOL and USCIS say BEC can be cleaned out very soon. Then they gradually realized it is too optimistic to use the 2006 visa numbers for BEC, so there are some advancements in cut-off date. But DOS still warn that there might be retrogression anytime in 2007 if BEC cases start reguesting large amount of visa numbers.

Overall, the retrogression last october for EB1 and EB2 was not based on the real demand. That is why EB1 became current pretty soon. But if the demand from BEC cases does show to be large, then the retrogression will be huge, and won't get recovered that fast.