CALCULATION FOR EB2 retrogression

來源: bbfish 於 2006-06-13 11:02:51 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 閱讀數 : (950 bytes)

total PERM approved: 37000 cases total from all accountries from 03/28/06 to 03/17/06

My PD:9/1/05
Proportional according to time (5 months) :37000*5/128=15416 (underestimated because initial a few months very few people are filing PERMs)
India/China (underestimated by neglecting other countries):=(18000/43000)*15416=6453
20% are EB2:1290
average EB2 filed for each month:258

From quota: 9800*28.6/100/12=233

So Visa bulletin for EB2 china will move at least 1 month/month at least to Sept 05. Worst case, new quota wil start after Oct.2006.

In addition, from more optomistic point of view:
1. The underestimate will kick in and help a lot.
2. EB1 unused visa number will be given to EB2 because China Eb1 is current.


Suggestions are welcome.

ps. If anyone happens to know the statistics of PERM filing numbers. please psot here. I remember there is somewhere.





請您先登陸，再發跟帖！