金融時報：美國人的美國夢破滅了？【雙語】

美國人的住房夢破滅了

在追憶自己父母在上世紀50年代是如何從密西西比州遷到芝加哥時，帕梅拉•戈登(PamelaGordon)歎了口氣。在那場“大遷徙”中，大量非裔美國人遷移到美國中西部的工業地區。

“當時他們屬於中等收入家庭，但由於是在南方，他們自認為生活得不錯，”她說道。“我父親在國家罐頭廠(National Can)工作，母親是個美容師。他們的薪水足夠支付房貸和供一輛卡迪拉克(Cadillac)，每周還能帶全家出去吃一頓飯，看場電影。他們覺得自己是正宗的中產階級。”

與其父母一樣，現年55歲的戈登女士也是中等收入。她在羅克福德(Rockford)市——該市位於芝加哥西北約90英裏，人口約15萬——一家牙醫診所裏做行政助理，丈夫在一家客戶服務中心工作，家庭年收入5.2萬美元，接近美國人口統計局(CensusBureau)公布的約5萬美元的美國家庭年均收入。

但在被問到是否覺得自己是中產階級時，戈登搖了搖頭。“就我理解，中產階級不必指望薪水來支付賬單，”她說道。“如果有一個月沒有收入，我就有麻煩了。中產階級撐幾個月也不會有問題。他們有存款。”

她的故事是美國中等收入家庭的縮影。自上世紀70年代末以來，這部分家庭的收入水平一直處於停滯狀態，進入21世紀後，甚至有所下降。從戰後的製造業工作到零售業等低收入行業工作的增多，美國中等收入工作的相對數量和質量都有所下降。

收入長期持續下降，加上經濟衰退的影響，已經給美國夢蒙上了陰影。住房危機導致數百萬家庭的負債額超過了房產價值，而高收入與中等收入家庭之間的差距也有所加大，高待遇工廠的崗位數量也有所縮減。這些因素威脅到了依賴普通美國人購買力的經濟複蘇。

前美國勞工部長、現任加州大學伯克利分校(University ofCalifornia at Berkeley)教授羅伯特•賴克(Robert Reich)表示：“美國夢中擁有住房這部分已變成了夢魘，而任何人都能實現美國夢、或你的子女會更成功的觀念，對於許多美國人而言似乎都是一種錯覺。”

戈登表示，每月的基本支出讓她幾乎沒有任何可支配收入。她是在2007年市場位於高點時買的房，目前房子價值幾乎肯定低於她欠的房貸——10.3萬美元。她每月還貸（包括房產稅）1100美元。貸款利率為7%，而她一直無法以更低的利率進行再融資。其它支出包括每月500美元的汽車貸款——她上班需要開車——以及600美元的汽油和食品費用。

在羅克福德，類似的家庭比比皆是。這裏以前是一個製造業城市，收入遠高於全國平均水平。在主幹道Kishwaukee大街上，隨處可見以前的工廠、加油站、汽車展廳和酒吧等廢棄建築物。

該市市長拉裏•莫裏西(Larry Morrissey)表示，以前充足的製造業工作機會眼下都成了奢望。“中等收入的人願意從事這些工作，但現在他們都在服務業、例如沃爾瑪(Walmart)等企業工作，”他表示。“這是一個被忽視的弱勢階層。”

這拉低了工資的平均水平，而最富裕人群的賺錢能力卻有所提升。同時，俄亥俄州立大學(Ohio State University)社會學家雷切爾•德懷爾(Rachel Dwyer)表示，大多數新創造的就業崗位都集中在最頂端和最底層，中間的職位較少。

這就帶來了需求問題，而受衝擊的不隻是美國。中間收入的下降衝擊了一度作為全球經濟引擎的美國消費者。“一個巨大的問號懸在美國和世界經濟上方，因為推動它們前進的‘勁量兔’（Energizer bunny，指勁量電池廣告中的兔子——譯者注）的電都耗光了，”賴克教授表示。

智庫芝加哥全球事務委員會(Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs)的迪克•隆沃思(Dick Longworth)說得更加直接。“這是一個消費社會，而他們是消費者，”他表示。“如果他們不買東西，我們將無法生存。”

 

英文對照

 

                                                               Death of American dream hits demand

Pamela Gordon sighs as she recalls howher parents came to Chicago in the 1950s from Mississippi, following the “Great Migration” ofAfrican-Americans to the industrial Midwest.

“They were at the median, but coming fromthe south, they considered they were doing well,” she says. “My father workedat the National Can factory and my mother was a beautician. They had enoughmoney to pay the mortgage, to afford a Cadillac, and they took us out once aweek to eat and to go to the movies. They felt very middle class.”

Like her parents, Ms Gordon, 55, is atthe median. Between her job as an administrative assistant at a dentist’soffice in Rockford, a city of 150,000 some 90miles north-west of Chicago,and her hu*****and’s work at a call-centre, they make $52,000 a year – close tothe annual median household income of about $50,000, according to the CensusBureau.

Asked if she considers herself middleclass, however, Ms Gordon shakes her head. “I think middle class would besomeone who doesn’t have to wait for payday to pay bills,” she says. “If I missa pay check, I’m in trouble. Middle-class people could miss a few and they’d befine. They have savings.”

Her story encapsulates what has happenedat the midpoint of US household incomes, where wages have stagnated since thelate 1970s and declined since the turn of the century. Both the relativequantity and quality of US median-income jobs has deteriorated, from postwarmanufacturing jobs to the rise of low-paying employment in industries such asretail.

Coupled with recession effects, thatlong-term secular decline has undermined the American dream. The housing crisishas left millions owing more than their homes are worth, while the distancebetween top earners and the median has grown, and the number of well-payingfactory jobs has shrunk. Such factors imperil a recovery, reliant on the buyingpower of ordinary Americans.

“The home ownership aspect of the Americandream has turned into a nightmare, while the idea that anyone can make it, orthat your children will do better, seems an illusion for many Americans,” saysRobert Reich, the former US labour secretary, now a professor at the Universityof California at Berkeley.

Ms Gordon says her essential monthlyexpenses leave her with almost no disposable income. She bought her home in2007, the height of the market, and it is almost certainly worth less than the$103,000 she owes on it. Her monthly mortgage payment, including propertytaxes, is $1,100. The interest rate is 7 per cent and she has been unable torefinance at a lower rate. Other expenses include a $500-a-month car loan,which she needs for driving to work, $600 in petrol and grocery bills.

Rockford, a former manufacturing citythat used to have incomes far above the national average, is full of suchstories. Kishwaukee Street,a main thoroughfare, is dotted with abandoned buildings that were oncefactories, petrol stations, car showrooms and bars.

Larry Morrissey, the mayor, saysmanufacturing jobs, once plentiful, are now aspirational. “The people in themiddle would like to be in those jobs but they’re working in the servicesector, at places like Walmart,” he says. “This is an overlooked and under-representedclass.”

That has dragged down median wages, whilethe wealthiest have seen their earning power rise. At the same time, saysRachel Dwyer, a sociologist at OhioState University,most job creation has been at the top and bottom of the scale, with fewer jobsin the middle.

This creates a demand problem, and notjust for the US.The decline in median incomes has hit the American consumer, once the engine ofthe global economy. “A huge question mark hangs over the US and globaleconomy because the ‘Energizer bunnies’ that drove them have run out,” saysProf Reich.

Dick Longworth of the Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs, a think-tank, is more categorical. “This is a consumer societyand they’re the consumers,” he says. “If they don’t buy, we don’t survive.”