【金融時報】IMF警告美國違約風險

IMF警告美國違約風險

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告，如果美國政府不能迅速采取行動，上調其法定債務上限，那將對全球金融市場造成“嚴重衝擊”，這一警告加大了針對美國國會和白宮的壓力，要求它們在財政政策上盡快達成共識。

IMF在其有關美國經濟政策的年度報告中指出，“不利的財政結局”是該國經濟前景麵臨的主要危險之一。

“這些結局的形式可能是利率突然上調及/或主權評級遭到調降——如果達不成有關財政整頓的協議，或者債務上限沒有得到及時上調，”IMF表示。

該機構補充稱：“鑒於美國國債在世界金融市場的中心角色，這些風險還可能產生重大的全球衝擊波。”

美國財政部表示，如果國會不上調目前為14.3萬億美元的債務上限，美國最早在8月2日就可能拿不出資金償債，並可能發生違約。但國會中的共和黨和民主黨人以及白宮迄今未能打破圍繞財政政策的政治僵局，各方在支出水平和稅收問題上爭執不下。共和黨方麵抵製上調債務上限，以爭取出台力度更大的支出削減和財政改革，同時反對任何增稅措施。

IMF發布有關美國的聲明後，該機構代理總裁約翰•利普斯基(JohnLipsky)表示，他“有信心認為，各方都深知美國發生債務違約的種種潛在風險，並將避免那些危險。”

利普斯基補充說：“不言而喻，美國政府發生債務違約……將產生非常嚴重、大範圍、戲劇性的衝擊，而這正是為什麽我們有信心認為這將得到避免。”

在各方就債務上限問題的爭論升溫之際，美國財長蒂姆•蓋特納(TimGeithner)致函一批共和黨參議員，指出如果奧巴馬政府隻是把利息支付放在比聯邦政府其它付款更優先的地位，是不足以帶來避免違約的回旋餘地的。

一些共和黨人指控白宮在債務上限問題上采用“恐嚇戰術”，他們提出，即使在8月初不能達成協議，其影響在更大程度上也將像是政府部門的部分關閉，而不是真正的違約，因為財政部可酌情優先支付某些款項。

“這種‘劃分優先順序’的提議，是在提倡一種激進和極其不負責任的做法，背棄了美國曆史上兩黨總統一貫堅持的兌現國家所有承諾的保證，”蓋特納表示。“這種做法不明智、不可行、風險高得不可接受，而且對美國人民不公平。除了及時立法上調債務上限外，別無他法，”蓋特納對參議院少數黨領袖米奇•麥康奈爾(MitchMcConnell)等參議員們表示。

IMF在其報告中表示，在財政政策上達到恰當的平衡，是美國經濟官員麵對的主要挑戰。該機構稱，財政整頓需要推進，而失去財政可信度可能造成巨大破壞。IMF建議美國應從明年開始削減赤字，整體努力將包括支出削減和增稅（通過取消特別激勵和減免）兩方麵。

但在另一方麵，IMF告誡稱，不應尋求當即、大幅的支出節省，表示“幅度過大的初期財政調整，可能也會顯著削弱國內需求”。IMF預期美國經濟今年將增長2.5%，2012年和2013年將加速至2.7%。

除了財政政策外，IMF提到美國經濟前景麵臨的其它風險包括：住房市場疲弱、可能發生的大宗商品價格衝擊、信貸供應偏緊，以及歐洲主權債務麻煩。

 

英文對照

 

                                                               IMF warns US of debt ‘shock’

The International Monetary Fund haswarned of a “severe shock” to global financial markets if the US does notmove quickly to increase its borrowing authority, adding pressure on Congressand the White House to clinch a deal on fiscal policy.

In its annual report on US economicpolicy, the IMF cited “unfavourable fiscal outcomes” as one of the key dangersto the country’s economic outlook.

“These could take the form of a suddenincrease in interest rates and/or a sovereign downgrade if an agreement onconsolidation does not materialise or the debt ceiling is not raised soonenough,” the IMF said.

It added: “These risks would also havesignificant global repercussions, given the central role of US Treasury bondsin world financial markets.”

The US Treasury department has said thatif Congress does not raise the debt limit – currently at $14,300bn – the US would runout of cash to pay its obligations and could default as early as August 2. ButRepublicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House have so far beenunable to break the political impasse surrounding fiscal policy, as they sparover spending levels and taxation. Republicans have been resisting an increasein the debt ceiling to extract deeper spending cuts and fiscal reforms, whileopposing any tax increases.

After the IMF statement on the US was released, John Lipsky, acting managingdirector, said he was “confident that the participants are well aware of thepotential risks of a debt default in the US and will avoid those dangers”.

Mr Lipsky added: “It should beself-evident a debt default by the US government . . . would have veryserious, far-reaching, dramatic repercussions and that’s why we’re confidentthat it will be avoided.”

With the heat rising over the debtceiling, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, sent a letter to a group ofRepublicans in the Senate arguing that there was no leeway for the Obamaadministration to prevent a default by simply prioritising interest paymentsover the federal government’s other payments.

Some Republicans have accused the WhiteHouse of “scare tactics” over the debt ceiling, suggesting that even if no dealis reached by early August, the impact would be more like a partial governmentshutdown than a true default because of the Treasury department’s discretion tomake certain payments ahead of others.

“This ‘prioritisation’ proposal advocatesa radical and deeply irresponsible departure from commitments by presidents ofboth parties, throughout American history, to honour all of the commitments thenation has made,” Mr Geithner said. “It is unwise, unworkable, unacceptablyrisky and unfair to the American people. There is no alternative to enactmentof a timely increase in the debt limit,” he told senators, including MitchMcConnell, the minority leader.

In its report, the IMF said striking theright balance on fiscal policy represented the main challenge facing USeconomic officials. The fund said fiscal consolidation needed to proceed andlosing fiscal credibility could be very damaging, and is recommending thatdeficit reduction should begin next year – with the overall effort to includeboth spending cuts and tax increases through the elimination of specialincentives and deductions.

But on the other hand, the IMF cautionedagainst deep and immediate savings, saying that “an excessively large upfrontfiscal adjustment could also significantly weaken domestic demand”. The IMF isexpecting the USeconomy to grow at a rate of 2.5 per cent this year, accelerating to 2.7 percent in 2012 and 2013.

Among the other risks to the outlookbesides fiscal policy, the IMF cited the weak housing market, the potential fora commodity price shock, tight credit supply and the European sovereign debtwoes.12