轉篇文章。。。貌似大夥兒都英文做PHD了，俺也就不道歉轉英文了。
News Analysis
Victory Brings Risk of Conflict With Merkel’s Allies
By JUDY DEMPSEY
Published: September 27, 2009
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel is returning to office, and this time almost certainly with her preferred coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats. But Mrs. Merkel’s victory could nonetheless leave her political standing weaker in the long run because her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union, had its worst results in 60 years.
Voters flocked to smaller parties, dealing an even greater blow to the Social Democratic Party, which now looks set to go into opposition, and confirming the weakening appeal of Germany’s two biggest post-war political parties, the C.D.U. and the S.P.D., which had been locked in an uneasy “grand coalition” for the past four years.
By winning about 34 percent of the conservative vote, Mrs. Merkel failed to reverse the party’s weak showing in 2005, when it won just over 35 percent.
“I always said that if Merkel gets 34 percent or under, then this is a problem for her,” said Gerd Langguth, a political science professor at Bonn University and a biographer of Mrs. Merkel.
According to exit polls by ZDF and ARD, the two public television stations in Germany, Mrs. Merkel’s new government is expected to hold about 320 of the 616 seats in the lower house of Parliament, giving her a stable majority.
The conservative bloc of Christian Democrats and the Christian Social Union won about 34 percent, but the Free Democrats made big inroads by winning about 15 percent of the vote, up from 9.8 percent in 2005.
Mrs. Merkel’s re-election as chancellor could give her the chance to introduce some bolder economic measures now that she can establish a coalition with the Free Democrats, led by Guido Westerwelle, who favors lower taxes and fewer regulations for business.
“I am convinced that now that Mrs. Merkel has the coalition she wants, her true political convictions will emerge,” said Gerhard Hirscher, a political analyst at the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Munich, which is affiliated with the conservative bloc. “She will have few excuses not to start reform.”
But she will also have to defend her right flank from within the conservative parties. “Conservative leaders from some of the other states, notably Christian Wulff from Lower Saxony and Jürgen Rüttgers from North-Rhine Westphalia, will start talking about her credentials as a party leader,” Mr. Langguth said.
Both state premiers have already had ambitions to take over the Christian Democrats in a bid to win back the tens of thousands of supporters who, in 2005 and again Sunday, abstained or voted for the Free Democrats, he and other analysts said.
Mr. Wulff favors creating a separate party leadership apart from the chancellery, arguing that the organization of a party is too time consuming and that the current system concentrates too much power in the chancellor.
But Mrs. Merkel and her predecessor, Helmut Kohl, have resisted such efforts, fearing it would allow too much public dissension to interfere with running the government.
To be sure, Mrs. Merkel remains popular in her own right. She has managed to bring the conservatives back to power for a second time, and she appears to have managed to avoid having to share power with the Social Democrats again.
“The results may be very bad for the conservative bloc,” said Elmar Brok, a leading member of the Christian Democrats. “But the thing you have to remember about Mrs. Merkel is her ability to keep things together. Even with the grand coalition, she kept it stable. She was not a polarizer. That was her big strength.”
Still, by basing the short and lackluster election campaign primarily on her own personal appeal, analysts said, Mrs. Merkel appears to have further weakened her party base — which was not very strong in the first place.
“The problem with this campaign is that it was not inclusive,” said Gero Neugebauer, a political science professor at the Free University in Berlin. “By exerting so much personal control over the party and trusting very few people, she has so far managed to silence the opposition, but in another way, she has also built up opposition to her style of leadership.”
He said Mrs. Merkel had marginalized important elements of her party, including advocates of economic changes, Catholics and tradition-minded workers.
The economics wing, led by Kurt Lauk and Friedrich Merz, criticized Mrs. Merkel for not pursuing an overhaul of the tax system. “We failed to sharpen our profile during this campaign or even when we were in coalition with the Social Democrats,” Mr. Lauk said.
Mrs. Merkel has said she had no choice, since she was constrained by her coalition partners.
The Catholic wing, which has for years been the backbone of the conservative bloc, was disappointed over how Mrs. Merkel, a Protestant who was raised in communist East Germany, criticized German-born Pope Benedict XVI for not speaking out immediately against a renegade bishop who had questioned the Holocaust.
“Mrs. Merkel does not understand the role of the Christian vote in western Germany” said Jörg van Essen, parliamentary manager of the Free Democrats. “The Christian Democratic Union is still very much a Catholic Party.”
While these dissenting voices within the conservative bloc are quite likely to remain muted for a while, the Social Democrats face an extended period of turmoil.
The aging party leadership is expected to face a major challenge, if not a rebellion, from the younger generation, which has been waiting in the wings for the party to go into the opposition.
“It is only a matter of time,” Mr. Neugebauer said.
News Analysis
Victory Brings Risk of Conflict With Merkel’s Allies
By JUDY DEMPSEY
Published: September 27, 2009
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel is returning to office, and this time almost certainly with her preferred coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats. But Mrs. Merkel’s victory could nonetheless leave her political standing weaker in the long run because her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union, had its worst results in 60 years.
Voters flocked to smaller parties, dealing an even greater blow to the Social Democratic Party, which now looks set to go into opposition, and confirming the weakening appeal of Germany’s two biggest post-war political parties, the C.D.U. and the S.P.D., which had been locked in an uneasy “grand coalition” for the past four years.
By winning about 34 percent of the conservative vote, Mrs. Merkel failed to reverse the party’s weak showing in 2005, when it won just over 35 percent.
“I always said that if Merkel gets 34 percent or under, then this is a problem for her,” said Gerd Langguth, a political science professor at Bonn University and a biographer of Mrs. Merkel.
According to exit polls by ZDF and ARD, the two public television stations in Germany, Mrs. Merkel’s new government is expected to hold about 320 of the 616 seats in the lower house of Parliament, giving her a stable majority.
The conservative bloc of Christian Democrats and the Christian Social Union won about 34 percent, but the Free Democrats made big inroads by winning about 15 percent of the vote, up from 9.8 percent in 2005.
Mrs. Merkel’s re-election as chancellor could give her the chance to introduce some bolder economic measures now that she can establish a coalition with the Free Democrats, led by Guido Westerwelle, who favors lower taxes and fewer regulations for business.
“I am convinced that now that Mrs. Merkel has the coalition she wants, her true political convictions will emerge,” said Gerhard Hirscher, a political analyst at the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Munich, which is affiliated with the conservative bloc. “She will have few excuses not to start reform.”
But she will also have to defend her right flank from within the conservative parties. “Conservative leaders from some of the other states, notably Christian Wulff from Lower Saxony and Jürgen Rüttgers from North-Rhine Westphalia, will start talking about her credentials as a party leader,” Mr. Langguth said.
Both state premiers have already had ambitions to take over the Christian Democrats in a bid to win back the tens of thousands of supporters who, in 2005 and again Sunday, abstained or voted for the Free Democrats, he and other analysts said.
Mr. Wulff favors creating a separate party leadership apart from the chancellery, arguing that the organization of a party is too time consuming and that the current system concentrates too much power in the chancellor.
But Mrs. Merkel and her predecessor, Helmut Kohl, have resisted such efforts, fearing it would allow too much public dissension to interfere with running the government.
To be sure, Mrs. Merkel remains popular in her own right. She has managed to bring the conservatives back to power for a second time, and she appears to have managed to avoid having to share power with the Social Democrats again.
“The results may be very bad for the conservative bloc,” said Elmar Brok, a leading member of the Christian Democrats. “But the thing you have to remember about Mrs. Merkel is her ability to keep things together. Even with the grand coalition, she kept it stable. She was not a polarizer. That was her big strength.”
Still, by basing the short and lackluster election campaign primarily on her own personal appeal, analysts said, Mrs. Merkel appears to have further weakened her party base — which was not very strong in the first place.
“The problem with this campaign is that it was not inclusive,” said Gero Neugebauer, a political science professor at the Free University in Berlin. “By exerting so much personal control over the party and trusting very few people, she has so far managed to silence the opposition, but in another way, she has also built up opposition to her style of leadership.”
He said Mrs. Merkel had marginalized important elements of her party, including advocates of economic changes, Catholics and tradition-minded workers.
The economics wing, led by Kurt Lauk and Friedrich Merz, criticized Mrs. Merkel for not pursuing an overhaul of the tax system. “We failed to sharpen our profile during this campaign or even when we were in coalition with the Social Democrats,” Mr. Lauk said.
Mrs. Merkel has said she had no choice, since she was constrained by her coalition partners.
The Catholic wing, which has for years been the backbone of the conservative bloc, was disappointed over how Mrs. Merkel, a Protestant who was raised in communist East Germany, criticized German-born Pope Benedict XVI for not speaking out immediately against a renegade bishop who had questioned the Holocaust.
“Mrs. Merkel does not understand the role of the Christian vote in western Germany” said Jörg van Essen, parliamentary manager of the Free Democrats. “The Christian Democratic Union is still very much a Catholic Party.”
While these dissenting voices within the conservative bloc are quite likely to remain muted for a while, the Social Democrats face an extended period of turmoil.
The aging party leadership is expected to face a major challenge, if not a rebellion, from the younger generation, which has been waiting in the wings for the party to go into the opposition.
“It is only a matter of time,” Mr. Neugebauer said.
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