問題: "Jack Lifton on US future rare earth development"
Jack Lifton, a veteran consultant and expert in the critical minerals sector with decades of experience in rare earths and technology metals, has been vocal about the challenges and timelines involved in developing a robust U.S. rare earth supply chain. He argues that while the U.S. has the potential to achieve greater independence from China, which dominates global production and processing, the process will be neither quick nor straightforward, requiring 5-10 years of sustained effort to rebuild expertise, infrastructure, and economic viability.
Challenges in Building a Domestic Supply Chain
Lifton stresses that the U.S. has lost significant institutional knowledge over the past 30-35 years, with no major commercial rare earth operations during that time, leading to a severe shortage of skilled metallurgists and engineers—only about 12-15 experts graduate annually in the U.S. compared to China's 100,000. This expertise gap, combined with reliance on now-restricted Chinese machinery, manuals, and personnel, leaves the U.S. "constrained" in the short term and vulnerable to supply disruptions affecting over 75% of its defense industrial base. He points out that current non-Chinese production meets only single-digit percentages of global demand, and downstream capabilities—like converting oxides into metals, alloys, and magnets—are largely absent.
A major hurdle is the lack of heavy rare earth separation facilities in the Americas, which are essential for producing high-purity oxides used in advanced magnets for EVs, defense systems, and AI infrastructure. Lifton has stated he doesn't see the need for another heavy rare earth separation plant in the U.S., given the limited existing capacity and focus on light rare earths from sites like Mountain Pass in California. He critiques over-reliance on a "holy duopoly" of producers like MP Materials and Lynas, warning that they are overhyped as solutions to Western independence.
Economic and Regulatory Realities
Economically, Lifton highlights that building a full supply chain—from mining to magnet production—demands rigorous due diligence to ensure profitability without market distortions, such as socializing losses through taxpayer-funded bailouts or Department of Defense involvement that masks true costs. He draws lessons from Lynas Rare Earths' experiences in Malaysia and Australia, where environmental regulations on radioactive waste (e.g., thorium) led to massive cost overruns—up to AUD 1 billion—and forced relocations, illustrating the political, logistical, and financial pitfalls the U.S. must avoid. Public capital cost estimates for U.S. projects are often unreliable due to insufficient techno-economic analysis.
Response to China's Actions and Geopolitical Context
In light of China's recent export controls on additional rare earths (e.g., holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium) and related technologies, Lifton describes the U.S. as facing a "severe dilemma" after decades of neglect. He interprets President Trump's decision to skip a meeting with Xi Jinping as a tactical avoidance of appearing weak, given China's leverage—producing 70% of global mine output, 90% of processing, and over 90% of high-performance magnets. China consumes 80% of its output domestically and can redirect the rest to allies, suffering minimal fallout from losing U.S. markets (about 5% of its magnet production). Lifton dismisses short-term U.S. efforts as "hot air," noting that awarded funds often go to inexperienced firms without proven track records.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Looking ahead, Lifton predicts that full U.S. supply chain operationality won't occur until at least 2027, even with accelerated government grants from the Pentagon and Department of Energy for mines, refineries, and factories. He estimates it could take up to 15 years to develop a large-scale mine from scratch, emphasizing the need for innovation, in-house expertise, and market awareness rather than replicating outdated models. U.S. government interest is often crisis-driven and inconsistent, unlikely to sustain long-term without policy continuity. Allies like Japan and Korea are prioritizing their own self-sufficiency, reducing collaboration potential. Lifton recommends focusing on deep industry knowledge, risk mitigation, and avoiding hype from junior miners or political rhetoric, while warning that emerging demands from AI data centers will further strain supplies. Ultimately, he believes the U.S. can succeed with concerted, decade-long investment but remains "screwed" in the near term without it.
