If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price
Israel hasn’t attacked Iran’s energy export hubs so far. If it does, China could find itself cut off from a flow of cheap oil.
Iran exports around 1.7 million barrels of crude a day, less than 2% of global demand. The U.S. reimposed sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports in late 2018, a few months after President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal during his first term.
Most countries won’t touch Iran’s sanctioned crude, so Tehran is forced to sell at a discount and find covert ways to get it onto the market. It uses a “dark fleet” of tankers that sail with their transponders turned off to ship cargoes of oil.
More than 90% of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, according to commodities data company Kpler. Most of it is bought by small Chinese “teapot” refineries clustered in the Shandong region that operate independently from state-owned oil companies. They switched to illicit Iranian oil en masse in 2022 to protect their margins.
