Polling aggregators (538 being the leading one) have nearly destroyed the US polling industry because of their shady practices and the perverse incentives they provide. The result was to have a foreign pollster (AtlasIntel) be the leading one in two consecutive cycles. This is… *****Tj39o4HZ3v
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 8, 2024
In 2016, 2020, and 2024 polls were systematically biased against Donald Trump, i.e. they systematically underestimated his performance. In the changes that were made to the 538 Pollster Rating methodology in 2024, pollsters were given a bonus for systematic bias. pic.twitter.com/i3VEO8XxMF
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 7, 2024
A second supposed "improvement" to 538's new 2024 methodology for Pollster Ratings was the addition of Transparency Scores, alongside Pollster Error. Sounds like a great idea. Who doesn't like transparency? Only issue: the scores are not transparent and not replicable. pic.twitter.com/fdmzE4geUY
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 8, 2024
538 banned Rasmussen, the 2nd most accurate pollster of the 2024 election, from its coverage. The reasons for banning Rasmussen were arbitrary and followed no pre-established process. Any other US pollster could be banned by the same logic, yet only Rasmussen got banned. pic.twitter.com/rwZoc8SDPI
— Andrei Roman (@andrei__roman) November 10, 2024
