Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
The closest election of the century keeps getting closer. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away from Election Day — our forecast gives Trump the bare advantage in the race with a 52-in-100 chance to win.*