家人總是說現在的總統候選人人心不古,2000年以後沒有一個候選人把減少national debts作為top priority。之前的總統候選人把增加defict,national debts作為一種恥辱。92年和老布什、克林頓同時競選的一名獨立候選人Ross Perot的競選宣言就是要留給後代一份好看的balance sheet,現在沒人再提了。不論是共和黨還是民主黨執政都在繼續增加debt,增大deficit. 從911之後就一直是deficit,沒有過surplus,之後最大的deficit是2008年金融危機和長期的反恐戰爭之後(反戰是奧巴馬能贏希拉裏的最主要的原因),這裏奧巴馬上台之後發錢造成了很大的deficit, national debt增加了2 trillions。之後奧巴馬表現還算不錯,一直在填補這個鴻溝。到了2016年下台之前已經填補了不少,當時的經濟還是很不錯的,也就是說Trump應該算是很幸運的。當時的FED chairman Bernanke就說過:我們還能繼續保持這樣的低利率。這時候川普接手,不但沒有減少national debt,反而進一步擴大。2017年川普上台,挺好的局麵還比2016多增加了700 billions的debt, deficit又開始往下走。這時候完全沒有必要給企業和富豪減稅,然而為了他自己,他還是做了,所以可以看到即使是在covid的之前他任上的deficit,和national debt進一步惡化,2019比2017多出去2.5 trillion的債務。covid之後就不用說了,數字說話。川普身為共和黨人,沒有秉承共和黨小政府,少government spending的作風,一直都是在搞破壞。
民主黨也一樣,顯然雙方已經都不把降低deficit,national debt放到競選計劃之中了,到了死豬不怕開水燙的地步。一個不停給富人和企業減稅,一個不停給窮人發錢。我們需要一個力挽狂瀾的群體,可惜這個群體還沒出現,或許可以期待我出山去挽一下?嗬嗬。
End of Fiscal Year | Debt (in billions, rounded) | Debt-to-GDP Ratio | Major Events by Presidential Term |
---|---|---|---|
1929 | $17 | 16% | Market crash |
1930 | $16 | 17% | Smoot-Hawley reduced trade |
1931 | $17 | 22% | Dust Bowl drought raged |
1932 | $20 | 34% | Hoover raised taxes |
1933 | $23 | 40% | New Deal increased GDP and debt |
1934 | $27 | 40% | |
1935 | $29 | 39% | Social Security |
1936 | $34 | 40% | Tax hikes renewed depression |
1937 | $36 | 39% | Third New Deal |
1938 | $37 | 42% | Dust Bowl ended |
1939 | $40 | 51% | Depression ended |
1940 | $43 | 49% | FDR increased spending and raised taxes |
1941 | $49 | 44% | U.S. entered WWII |
1942 | $72 | 48% | Defense tripled |
1943 | $137 | 70% | |
1944 | $201 | 91% | Bretton Woods |
1945 | $259 | 114% | WWII ended |
1946 | $269 | 119% | Truman's 1st term budgets and recession |
1947 | $258 | 103% | Cold War |
1948 | $252 | 92% | Recession |
1949 | $253 | 93% | Recession |
1950 | $257 | 86% | Korean War boosted growth and debt |
1951 | $255 | 74% | |
1952 | $259 | 71% | |
1953 | $266 | 68% | Recession when war ended |
1954 | $271 | 69% | Eisenhower's budgets and Recession |
1955 | $274 | 64% | |
1956 | $273 | 61% | |
1957 | $271 | 57% | Recession |
1958 | $276 | 58% | Eisenhower's 2nd term and recession |
1959 | $285 | 55% | Fed raised rates |
1960 | $286 | 54% | Recession |
1961 | $289 | 52% | Bay of Pigs |
1962 | $298 | 50% | JFK budgets and Cuban missile crisis |
1963 | $306 | 48% | U.S. aids Vietnam, JFK killed |
1964 | $312 | 46% | LBJ's budgets and war on poverty |
1965 | $317 | 43% | U.S. entered Vietnam War |
1966 | $320 | 40% | |
1967 | $326 | 40% | |
1968 | $348 | 39% | |
1969 | $354 | 36% | Nixon took office |
1970 | $371 | 35% | Recession |
1971 | $398 | 35% | Wage and price controls |
1972 | $427 | 34% | Stagflation |
1973 | $458 | 33% | Nixon ended gold standard and OPEC oil embargo |
1974 | $475 | 31% | Watergate and budget process created |
1975 | $533 | 32% | Vietnam War ended |
1976 | $620 | 33% | Stagflation |
1977 | $699 | 34% | Stagflation |
1978 | $772 | 33% | Carter budgets and recession |
1979 | $827 | 32% | |
1980 | $908 | 32% | Volcker raised fed rate to 20% |
1981 | $998 | 31% | Reagan tax cut |
1982 | $1,142 | 34% | Reagan increased spending |
1983 | $1,377 | 37% | Jobless rate 10.8% |
1984 | $1,572 | 38% | Increased defense spending |
1985 | $1,823 | 41% | |
1986 | $2,125 | 46% | Reagan lowered taxes |
1987 | $2,350 | 48% | Market crash |
1988 | $2,602 | 50% | Fed raised rates |
1989 | $2,857 | 51% | S&L Crisis |
1990 | $3,233 | 54% | First Iraq War |
1991 | $3,665 | 58% | Recession |
1992 | $4,065 | 61% | |
1993 | $4,411 | 63% | Omnibus Budget Act |
1994 | $4,693 | 64% | Clinton budgets |
1995 | $4,974 | 64% | |
1996 | $5,225 | 64% | Welfare reform |
1997 | $5,413 | 63% | |
1998 | $5,526 | 60% | LTCM crisis and recession |
1999 | $5,656 | 58% | Glass-Steagall repealed |
2000 | $5,674 | 55% | Budget surplus |
2001 | $5,807 | 55% | 9/11 attacks and EGTRRA |
2002 | $6,228 | 57% | War on Terror |
2003 | $6,783 | 59% | JGTRRA and Iraq War |
2004 | $7,379 | 60% | Iraq War |
2005 | $7,933 | 61% | Bankruptcy Act and Hurricane Katrina. |
2006 | $8,507 | 61% | Bernanke chaired Fed |
2007 | $9,008 | 62% | Bank crisis |
2008 | $10,025 | 68% | Bank bailout and QE |
2009 | $11,910 | 82% | Bailout cost $250B ARRA added $242B |
2010 | $13,562 | 90% | ARRA added $400B, payroll tax holiday ended, Obama Tax cuts, ACA, Simpson-Bowles |
2011 | $14,790 | 95% | Debt crisis, recession and tax cuts reduced revenue |
2012 | $16,066 | 99% | Fiscal cliff |
2013 | $16,738 | 99% | Sequester, government shutdown |
2014 | $17,824 | 101% | QE ended, debt ceiling crisis |
2015 | $18,151 | 100% | Oil prices fell |
2016 | $19,573 | 105% | Brexit |
2017 | $20,245 | 104% | Congress raised the debt ceiling |
2018 | $21,516 | 105% | Trump tax cuts |
2019 | $22,719 | 107% | Trade wars |
2020 | $27,748 | 129% | COVID-19 and 2020 recession |
2021 | $29,617 | 124% | COVID-19 and American Rescue Plan Act |
2022 | $31,420 | 119% | Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness |
2023 | $34,001 | 122% | Fed raises rates |