Another Espenshade study, this one with Chang Chung, a senior staff member in Princeton's Office of Population Research, looked at data from elite colleges to see what would happen if race and ethnicity were eliminated from consideration. The study appeared in Social Science Quarterly in 2005.
The study found that, without affirmative action, the acceptance rate for African-American candidates at elite colleges would be likely to fall by nearly two-thirds, from 33.7 percent to 12.2 percent, while the acceptance rate for Hispanic applicants probably would be cut in half, from 26.8 percent to 12.9 percent.
White applicants would have seen little change in this analysis. Their admission rate would rise slightly, to 24.3 percent, from 23.8 percent.
The big gains would be for Asian applicants. Their admission rate in a race-neutral system would go to 23.4 percent, from 17.6 percent. And their share of a class of admitted students would rise to 31.5 percent, from 23.7 percent.
