喬布斯得的islet-cell tumor是比較少見的一種，相對來說是溫和型的，不少患者得了以後還能活好幾十年，甚至得以盡天年，最後以其他疾病去世。小喬開始不想立刻手術，也許也是想賭一把。應該說從純概率上，他的勝算本來是不小的，但他比較倒黴。
可以看看專業人是如何說地。（http://blogs.webmd.com/breaking-news/2011/10/steve-jobs-pancreatic-cancer.html）
當然如果是我的話，多半不會賭。
Did Delaying Surgery Hurt Jobs’ Chances of Surviving Pancreatic Cancer?
Once it was clear that Jobs had the rare islet-cell pancreatic cancer, there was an excellent chance of a cure. According to Cleveland Clinic gastroenterologist Maged Rizk, MD, there’s an overall 80% to 90% chance of 5-year survival. In the world of cancer survival, that’s a huge milestone.
“I don’t think waiting nine months for surgery was a bad decision,” Rizk tells WebMD. “Especially if it is limited disease, especially if it is an islet-cell tumor and the cells are [typical of early cancer], and as long as you don’t have symptoms, you can sit on it a bit.”
So why wasn’t Jobs cured? “He was unlucky,” Rizk says.
