兩位華爾街經濟學家齊聲示警,若美國經濟陷入衰退,可能引爆一場債務危機。路透
在美國國會準備討論是否要延長美國前總統川普2017年實施的減稅措施之際,
兩位華爾街經濟學家日漸關注美國財政處境,齊聲示警若美國經濟陷入衰退,可能引爆一場債務危機。
國會預算辦公室(CBO)估算,美國聯邦政府債務占國內生產毛額(GDP)比率將在2034年達到創紀錄的116%,超越二戰時期,並且將在2054年時觸及172%。
Apollo全球管理公司首席經濟學家史洛克(Torsten Slok)與摩根大通首席經濟學家費洛利(Michael
Feroli),在美國企業研究所(AEI)主辦的美國財政處境座談會上警告,若美國經濟再陷入一場經濟衰退,可能推升赤字與債務到高於預測的水準,從而觸發美國債務危機,震波將擴及全球金融市場。
費洛利表示,大型銀行業者資產負債表吸納美國公債的能力有限,部分原因是金融海嘯後的規範,使美國公債市場的根基在衰退導致發債量意外暴增時,搖晃不已,“有人擔心,在衰退期間,不隻是美國公債要擴大發行,也沒有能夠中介這些發債量的基礎設施”,可能重演以英國2022年9月提出減稅計劃、致使英國公債市場陷入動盪的情況。
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