▲美國前總統川普雖麵臨法律官司,但在最新的民調中,他仍穩定領先現任總統拜登。
盡管美國前總統川普(Donald
Trump)雖麵臨法律官司,但在最新的民調中,他仍穩定領先現任總統拜登。不過,曾連續40年準確預測總統當選人的曆史專家李奇曼(Allan
Lichtman)仍看好拜登會連任,並稱現階段的民調毫無參考價值。
根據《衛報》報導,美國美利堅大學(American University)曆史學者李奇曼(Allan
Lichtman)自從1984年的大選開始,精準預測每次總統大選的選情,包含2016年希拉蕊敗選輸給川普。
李奇曼依照其設計的「13個關鍵因素」模型來預測選情。他表示,盡管民調顯示拜登在全國範圍陷入困境,但仍有很大的機會連任,「拜登要在11月輸給川普,必須要發生很多差錯。」
「13個關鍵因素」模型主要是根據曆史因素來預期選舉結果,而非依賴民調、策略或競選活動。模型包含13個是非題,若有6個以上的問題對執政黨不利,那麽執政黨候選人將會輸掉選舉;如果對執政黨不利的問題少於6個,那麽執政黨候選人將會勝出。
李奇曼表示,有2個關鍵問題對拜登的連任大有幫助,分別是他在黨內初選中沒有遇到重要的挑戰者,以及他是現任的總統,「他們被民調迷惑了。選前6至7個月的民調,預測價值為零。」
不過他也強調,這並不意味著拜登必定會贏,有一些關鍵因素仍對川普有利,包含民主黨有第三方挑戰者小羅勃.甘迺迪(Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.)、以色列與巴勒斯坦問題,還有另外2項與經濟有關的因素也偏向川普。
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