風蕭蕭_Frank
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加拿大製造業的未來 2023
Manufacturing Canada's Future November 2023
Alan Arcand
加拿大製造商和出口商協會首席經濟學家
Alan Arcand 是國家政策團隊的成員，負責製定和執行加拿大製造業協會 (CME) 的主要國家研究項目，進行 CME 的宏觀經濟分析以支持全國範圍內的組織工作，管理我們的稅收政策工作，並作為代表協會及其會員利益與政府和公眾溝通的主要聲音。
加入 CME 之前，Alan 在加拿大會議委員會 (The Conference Board of Canada) 工作了 19 年，擔任過多個職務，包括市政研究中心副主任。Alan 的背景包括市政、區域和國家經濟事務方麵的專業知識，包括經濟預測和分析。
Alan 擁有皇後大學經濟學碩士學位。
關於加拿大製造商和出口商
自1871年以來，我們一直致力於為加拿大製造業和出口行業做出貢獻。我們為他們的未來而奮鬥，幫助他們節省成本，並幫助製造商發展壯大。
該協會直接代表全國2500多家領先企業。CME超過85%的會員是中小企業。作為加拿大領先的商業網絡，CME通過包括成立加拿大製造業聯盟在內的多項舉措，覆蓋了加拿大東西海岸地區超過10萬家從事製造業、全球業務和服務業相關行業的企業。CME的會員網絡約占加拿大製造業總產量的82%，占加拿大出口總額的90%。
執行摘要
製造業是加拿大經濟的基石，在創造就業機會、促進創新和推動經濟增長方麵發揮著至關重要的作用。加拿大9萬家製造業企業直接創造了加拿大實際國內生產總值（GDP）的9.5%，貢獻了企業研發支出的四分之一，並占加拿大出口商品的60%。製造業的直接、間接和衍生影響合計占加拿大經濟總量的27%。此外，製造業通過供應鏈活動和員工支出，雇傭了179萬加拿大人，並創造了358萬個就業崗位，無疑為加拿大各地社區做出了巨大貢獻。
製造業生產 盡管製造業在加拿大經濟中發揮著重要作用，但自21世紀初以來，製造業經曆了長期投資疲軟、生產力低迷和競爭力下降的困境。麵對這一低迷時期，加拿大製造商和出口商協會（CME）及其會員公司於2016年啟動了一項新戰略，旨在利用第四次工業革命帶來的機遇，推動製造業走上更強勁的增長之路。 “工業2030”戰略是在一項全麵的成員谘詢和研究計劃的基礎上製定的，旨在更好地了解加拿大製造業麵臨的挑戰，並最終向各國政府提出了一係列建議，旨在振興加拿大關鍵的增長引擎之一——製造業。
自該倡議七年前啟動以來，製造業產量有所增長，部分原因是報告部分建議的實施，但增長速度低於預期，總體落後於其他發達經濟體。造成這種增長放緩的部分原因在於近年來一係列危機和挑戰，這些危機和挑戰嚴重考驗了製造業的韌性，包括新冠疫情、供應鏈中斷、勞動力短缺急劇加劇、地緣政治緊張以及氣候變化和環境問題在國家和全球議程中日益凸顯的重要性。但這也可以歸咎於該行業多年來一直麵臨的持續存在且未得到解決的問題，例如勞動力挑戰、相對較高的稅負、監管環境不完善以及缺乏國家製造業戰略，所有這些因素共同阻礙了企業投資。
值得注意的是，近年來全球經濟遭遇的接連危機也使人們重新關注製造業的重要性及其在關鍵商品生產中的作用。事實上，這場疫情暴露了一個嚴峻的現實：加拿大製造業產能的下降使該國處於脆弱境地，各國政府都在爭相采購關鍵物資和設備。值得慶幸的是，盡管環境充滿挑戰，許多加拿大製造商仍加緊生產，將生產轉移到生產個人防護裝備和其他必要物資，以保護一線工人並幫助患者。
致命病毒。盡管如此，這場疫情還是給加拿大的政策製定者敲響了警鍾，提醒他們製造業在經濟中的關鍵作用以及重建國家工業產能的迫切需要。
地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，以及對關鍵商品過度依賴中國日益增長的擔憂，是提升製造業重要性的其他主要趨勢。正因如此，加拿大和其他發達經濟體的政府都宣布將供應鏈核心環節回流或“友好”地轉移到中國作為優先事項。全球競相打造清潔、淨零排放經濟，一些人認為這是自工業革命以來最重要的經濟轉型之一，這也將製造業推到了政治議程的更高位置。全球對清潔技術的需求正在快速增長，這為加拿大發展經濟和創造良好就業機會提供了重要機遇。
鑒於全球經濟的動態變化，芝加哥商品交易所需要確保其代表加拿大製造商的倡導工作能夠在這個快速變化的世界中繼續取得成效。為了協助完成這項工作，加拿大製造業協會 (CME) 於 2023 年春夏與其會員公司開展了跨國磋商，充分利用他們的專業知識和行業經驗。
在整個磋商過程中，一些一致且熟悉的主題再次印證了加拿大製造業麵臨的諸多問題，例如勞動力和技能短缺、繁文縟節和監管壁壘，以及缺乏投資於提高生產率的機械設備的動力。磋商還揭示了該行業目前麵臨的新挑戰，包括住房短缺、市政當局對增長的主要阻礙作用，以及快速實現行業脫碳的壓力日益增大。總而言之，如果加拿大製造業要保持長期競爭力，就需要政府采取新的政策建議來應對這些挑戰。
通過應對這些挑戰，製造商將能夠抓住當前經濟、地緣政治和環境趨勢帶來的機遇。因此，現在比以往任何時候都更需要各級政府與產業界合作，製定並實施一項全麵的先進製造業國家戰略。該戰略包含22項建議，主要圍繞以下四大支柱：
1. 擴大和提升加拿大製造業勞動力的技能。
2. 刺激創新、投資和先進製造技術的采用。
3. 鼓勵國內製造業生產和增值出口。
4. 加快並擴大清潔技術激勵措施，幫助製造商適應和推進加拿大的氣候變化計劃。
加拿大製造業協會 (CME) 認為，實施該戰略及其建議將創造更具競爭力的商業環境，提高投資、創新和生產力水平，促進該行業的生產和出口，並有助於減少排放。鑒於製造業的深遠影響，其複興將有助於確保加拿大子孫後代的繁榮。
結論
自七年前啟動“工業2030”戰略以來，加拿大製造業麵臨著新的複雜挑戰，包括全球疫情、地緣政治斷裂、供應鏈中斷、勞動力和技能短缺的急劇加劇，以及氣候變化和環境問題在國家和全球議程中日益凸顯的重要性。許多挑戰，尤其是此次疫情，給加拿大的政策製定者敲響了警鍾，提醒他們製造業在經濟中的關鍵作用以及重建國家工業產能的迫切需要。
製造業麵臨的挑戰也影響了更廣泛的經濟表現。事實上，加拿大商業部門的勞動生產率在過去10個季度中有9個季度出現下降，這是人均實際GDP連續四個季度下降和生活水平停滯的關鍵原因。如果不從根本上改變我們對勞動生產率和經濟增長的態度，加拿大未來的繁榮將岌岌可危。
幸運的是，解決加拿大經濟困境的方案觸手可及：製定一項全麵的先進製造業戰略，應對製造業麵臨的核心挑戰，並抓住當前經濟、地緣政治和環境趨勢帶來的機遇。該戰略及其建議為加拿大重振其關鍵經濟增長引擎之一提供了願景和路徑。
加拿大製造業協會 (CME) 認為，實施製造業國家戰略將創造更具競爭力的商業環境，提高投資、創新和生產力水平，促進製造業的生產和出口，並有助於減少排放。鑒於製造業的深遠影響，其複興將有助於確保加拿大子孫後代的繁榮昌盛。
Manufacturing Canada's Future
November 2023
Alan Arcand
Chief Economist Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters
Alan Arcand is a member of the National Policy team where he is responsible for developing and executing CME’s major national research projects, conducting CME’s macroeconomic analysis to support the organization across the country, managing our tax policy efforts, and be a leading voice representing the interests of the association and members with government and with the public.
Before joining CME, Alan spent 19 years at The Conference Board of Canada where he held multiple roles, including the Associate Director of the Centre for Municipal Studies. Alan’s background includes expertise in municipal, regional, and national economic matters including economic forecasting and analysis.
Alan has an M.A. in Economics from Queen’s University.
ABOUT CANADIAN MANUFACTURERS & EXPORTERS
Since 1871, we have made a difference for Canada’s manufacturing and exporting communities. Fighting for their future. Saving them money. Helping manufacturers grow.
The association directly represents more than 2,500 leading companies nationwide. More than 85 per cent of CME's members are small and medium-sized enterprises. As Canada's leading business network, CME, through various initiatives including the establishment of the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition, touches more than 100,000 companies from coast to coast to coast, engaged in manufacturing, global business, and service-related industries. CME's membership network accounts for an estimated 82 per cent of total manufacturing production and 90 per cent of Canada’s exports.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The manufacturing sector is a cornerstone of Canada’s economy, playing a crucial role in creating jobs, fostering innovation, and driving economic growth. The nation’s 90,000 manufacturers directly generate 9.5 per cent of Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP), make up one-quarter of its business research and development spending, and account for 60 per cent of the country’s outbound goods. Taken together, the sector’s direct, indirect and induced impacts amount to 27 per cent of Canada's total economic activity. In addition, by employing 1.79 million Canadians and supporting 3.58 million more jobs through supply chain activity and employee spending, the manufacturing industry undoubtedly makes substantial contributions to communities across Canada.
Manufacturing production Despite its significant role in the country’s economy, the manufacturing sector suffered through a prolonged period of weak investment, sluggish productivity, and declining competitiveness starting in the early 2000s. As a result of this slump, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) and its member companies launched a new strategy in 2016 with the goal of leveraging the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and placing the sector on a stronger growth path. The Industrie 2030 strategy was developed following a comprehensive member consultation and research initiative to better understand the challenges facing Canada’s manufacturing sector, and it resulted in a set of recommendations to governments designed to revitalize one of the country’s key growth engines.
Manufacturing production has expanded since the initiative was launched seven years ago, aided in part by the implementation of some of the report’s recommendations, but the pace of growth has been weaker than desirable and generally lagging those of other advanced economies. Part of the blame for this subpar growth can be pinned on a number of crises and challenges that have severely tested the sector’s resilience in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, a dramatic spike in labour shortages, geopolitical fracturing, and the rising prominence of climate change and environmental issues on national and global agendas. But it can also be blamed on persistent and unaddressed issues that the sector has had to grapple with for years, like workforce challenges, a relatively high tax burden, a sub-optimal regulatory environment, and the lack of a national manufacturing strategy, all of which combine to deter business investment.
Notably, the succession of crises that have buffeted the global economy in recent years have also brought renewed attention to the importance of the manufacturing sector and the role it plays in the production of critical goods. Indeed, the pandemic laid bare a stark reality: the erosion of Canada’s manufacturing capacity left the country in a vulnerable position, as governments scrambled to source critical supplies and equipment. Thankfully, despite the challenging environment, many Canadian manufacturers stepped up and shifted production to make PPE and other supplies needed to protect front line workers and to help patients dealing with the deadly virus. Still, the pandemic served as a wake-up call for Canadian policymakers, a reminder of manufacturing’s critical role in the economy and the vital need to rebuild the nation’s industrial capacity.
Rising geopolitical tensions and emerging concerns about being overly dependent on China for critical goods are other major trends raising the manufacturing sector’s profile. This is why governments in Canada and in other advanced economies have declared it a priority to reshore or friend-shore core parts of the supply chain. The global race to build a clean, net-zero economy, which some consider to be one of the most significant economic transformations since the Industrial Revolution, has also pushed manufacturing higher up the political agenda. Global demand for clean technologies is increasing rapidly, representing a significant opportunity for Canada to grow its economy and create good jobs.
Given the evolving dynamics of the global economy, CME needed to make certain that its advocacy efforts on behalf of Canadian manufacturers would continue to pay off in a world of accelerating change. To help with this undertaking, CME embarked upon cross-country consultations with its member companies during the spring and summer of 2023, leveraging their expertise and industry experience.
Throughout the consultation process, consistent and familiar themes emerged that reaffirmed the welldocumented problems facing the manufacturing industry in Canada, such as labour and skills shortages, red tape and regulatory barriers, and the lack of incentives to invest in productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment. It also revealed new challenges that the sector is facing today, including housing shortages, the role of municipalities as a major obstacle to growth, and growing pressures to rapidly decarbonize the industry. Put together, these challenges require new policy recommendations for governments to act upon if the Canadian manufacturing sector is to remain competitive over the long run.
By addressing these challenges, manufacturers will be able to seize the opportunities presented by current economic, geopolitical, and environmental trends. Accordingly, now more than ever, all levels of government need to work together with industry to develop and implement a comprehensive national strategy for advanced manufacturing. The strategy includes 22 recommendations organized under the following four pillars:
1. Expanding and upskilling Canada’s manufacturing workforce.
2. Stimulating innovation, investment, and the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies.
3. Encouraging domestic manufacturing production and value-added exports.
4. Speeding up and expanding clean technology incentives to help manufacturers adapt to and advance Canada’s climate change plan.
In CME’s view, implementing this strategy and its recommendations will result in a more competitive business environment, lead to higher levels of investment, innovation, and productivity, boost the sector’s production and exports, and contribute to emissions reductions. Given manufacturing’s far-reaching impact, its revival will help securre Canada’s prosperity for generations to come.
CONCLUSION
Since the launch of the Industrie 2030 strategy seven years ago, Canada’s manufacturing industry has faced new and complex challenges, including a global pandemic, geopolitical fracturing, supply chain disruptions, a dramatic spike in labour and skills shortages, and the rising prominence of climate change and environmental
issues on national and global agendas. Many of these challenges, especially the pandemic, served as a wakeup call for Canadian policymakers, a reminder of manufacturing’s critical role in the economy and the vital need to rebuild the nation’s industrial capacity.
The challenges that manufacturing has been facing has also affected the wider economy’s performance. In fact, labour productivity in Canada’s business sector has declined in 9 out of the last 10 quarters, the key reason real GDP per capita has decreased for four
consecutive quarters and living standards have stalled. Without fundamental changes to our approach to labour productivity and economic growth, Canada’s future prosperity is in jeopardy.
Fortunately, the solution to Canada’s economic troubles is at our fingertips: the adoption of a comprehensive advanced manufacturing strategy that addresses the
manufacturing sector’s core challenges and seizes the opportunities presented by current economic, geopolitical, and environmental trends. This strategy and its recommendations provide a vision and path for Canada to revitalize one of the country’s key economic growth engines.
In CME’s view, implementing a national strategy for the sector will result in a more competitive business environment, lead to higher levels of investment, innovation, and productivity, boost the sector’s production and exports, and contribute to emissions
reductions. Given manufacturing’s far-reaching impact, its revival will help secure Canada’s prosperity for generations to come.
