約翰·米爾斯海默 中國在避免與美國發生衝突

約翰·米爾斯海默 中國在避免與美國發生衝突

約翰·米爾斯海默曝光：他的中國敘事發生驚人轉變！
John Mearsheimer EXPOSED: Shocking Shift in His China Narrative!

Mark Legend Gangmei  2025 年 1 月 3 日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK0oehQVWRo

約翰·米爾斯海默似乎正在改變他的敘述，表示希望他的預測是錯誤的。這是因為中國在戰略上避免與美國發生它似乎想要的衝突。也許他已經開始意識到美國遏製中國的崛起已經太晚了。

約翰·米爾斯海默觀點的一個重大缺陷是他假設所有國家都會像美國一樣行事。僅從這個角度看待世界或地緣政治是危險的。約翰·米爾斯海默所概述的進攻性現實主義是一種國際關係理論，它認為大國天生就被驅使在國際體係中尋求主導地位以確保其生存。根據這種觀點，各國采取積極行動，以最大限度地提高其權力和安全，而無政府狀態的世界不存在中央權威來執行規則。這種方法是危險的，因為它假設衝突是不可避免的，促進了國家之間的零和競爭和不信任。在一個擁有核武器的世界裏，這種行為增加了災難性戰爭的風險，因為各國在追求霸權的過程中可能會誤判或加劇衝突。

約翰·米爾斯海默表示，他不認為中國人是壞人，也不認為美國人是好人，他的觀點反映了國際政治的運作方式。然而，他巧妙地將中國和美國等同起來以支持他的論述，聲稱中國將不可避免地模仿美國的行為。然而，這種比較是不夠的。與美國不同，中國缺乏帝國主義野心，也不是一個無情的霸權國家。從曆史和文化上看，兩國之間存在著深刻的差異。多年來，米爾斯海默的演講已經明確了誰是侵略者。正如傑弗裏·薩克斯恰如其分地指出的那樣，沒有人比米爾斯海默更好地解釋了美國。相比之下，中國倡導合作與人類共同未來——這清楚地提醒我們，中國40多年來沒有轟炸過其他國家。

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你們真正應該希望的是中國不要繼續發展 約翰·米爾·希默似乎在改變他的敘述方式，表示希望他的預測是錯誤的 其中一個原因是中國在戰略上避免與美國發生它似乎想要的衝突 當習近平主席告訴烏爾蘇拉·VLAN，美國故意挑釁和施壓中國，迫使其在台灣問題上發生衝突時，這一點變得顯而易見 如果我們有良好的關係，換句話說，如果中國能夠和平崛起，那將證明我錯了 換句話說，我的理論是錯誤的，讓我們希望我錯了 呃，我有一個簡單的理論關於世界是如何運作的，我相信這個理論有很多解釋力 約翰·米爾概述的進攻性現實主義是一種國際關係理論，它認為大國天生就被驅使在國際體係中尋求主導地位，以確保其生存 根據這種觀點，各國采取積極行動，以最大限度地發揮其權力和安全，在一個沒有中央權力機構來執行規則的無政府世界中，這種方法是危險的，因為它假設衝突是不可避免的，促進零點競爭以及核武世界中國家之間的不信任，這種行為增加了災難性戰爭的風險，因為各國在追求霸權的過程中可能會誤判或升級衝突，約翰·米爾·希默似乎改變其敘述的另一個原因是，美國目前正在與烏克蘭和中東進行激烈交戰，而且這不會很快結束，美國主要對遏製中國感興趣，我認為美國擔心中國正在變得更加強大，而且它不是東亞的現狀大國，美國人今天麵臨的問題是他們無法集中精力遏製中國，因為美國深深卷入了烏克蘭戰爭，並且深深卷入了以色列在中東進行的各種戰爭，但盡管如此，美國致力於遏製中國，當然從中國的角度來看，這是不可接受的，我完全理解這一點中國的觀點 中國希望變得越來越強大，但這不符合美國的利益，所以這是一場激烈的競爭，據我所知，這場競爭將持續數十年，甚至整個 21 世紀 我欽佩約翰·梅赫對烏克蘭戰爭和加沙衝突的深刻分析 我也同意傑弗裏·薩克斯的觀點，沒有人比米爾·希默更好地解釋美國的行動和政策 約翰·梅赫是一位備受推崇的進攻性現實主義思想家，這一思想流派植根於 19 世紀的權力平衡理論，接受全麵戰爭的可能性 這種觀點與傳統的美國大國觀非常吻合 然而，現代世界
不再在這些條件下運作，堅持這種觀點可能會讓我們走向相互毀滅 約翰·梅赫觀點的一個重大缺陷是他假設所有國家都會像美國一樣行事 中國將試圖模仿美國 注意約翰·梅赫如何巧妙地將中國和美國放在同一條船上以加強首先，正如我所說，我不認為問題的根源是中國人的行為，我不認為中國人是壞人，美國人是好人，我認為這就是國際政治的運作方式，雖然我是美國人，我支持美國人，但事實是，這是一個悲慘的情況，然而，約翰·米爾·希默曾多次聲稱，美國是一個無情的國家，美國不僅僅是遏製中國，我們在談論一種反擊戰略，正如你們許多人所知，也許你們許多人不知道的那樣，美國是一個無情的大國，你永遠不要低估美國的無情，盡管我們用各種自由主義的言論來掩蓋我們無情的行為，但我們是難纏的客戶，中國人現在發現了這一點在 20 世紀 90 年代初，當我告訴中國人，如果你們繼續發展經濟，就會麵臨激烈的安全競爭，你們會驚訝於美國的殘酷無情，他們根本不相信我，因為當時美國對他們很好，我說你們不明白的是，結構將會改變，當結構改變時，當我們從單極走向多極，而你們是一個純粹的競爭對手時，我們會以與現在截然不同的方式看待你們，這正是正在發生的事情，看看這個，沒有人解釋過美國比約翰我更好，我想給你們講一個關於美國的故事，你們大多數人都不知道，當然大多數美國人也不知道的故事，因為我們有一個關於高貴美國的理想主義故事，它與現實的美國幾乎沒有相似之處，我在這裏要做的是試圖說服你，自 1783 年以來，美國的外交政策一直按照我的理論行事，這就是我要嚐試做的 1783 年，美國最初是
133 個沿著大西洋海岸分布的微不足道的殖民地，我們做了什麽，我們穿越大陸到太平洋，我們屠殺了大量美洲原住民，我們偷走了他們的土地，我們在 19 世紀中葉與墨西哥開戰，我們從墨西哥偷走了它現在是美國的西南部
我們於 1812 年入侵加拿大，其明確目的是使加拿大成為美國的一部分，對於那些不知道原因的人來說，多倫多不是加拿大的首都，渥太華是加拿大的首都 CU 他們希望我們回訪此外，關於加勒比海，我們現在擁有所有加勒比海地區，如古巴和如果不是因為波多黎各與奴隸製問題密不可分，那麽它將成為美國的州，而北方各州表示我們不會進入加勒比地區，因為那裏有太多奴隸，那些是奴隸製州，我們不想再有奴隸製州，我們對征服有著強烈的欲望，當阿道夫·希特勒於 1941 年夏天進入蘇聯時，他有時會談到模仿美國人及其征服和獲得領土的能力，他非常欽佩我們，他試圖效仿我們，他把這條粗俗的河流稱為我的密西西比河，這就是美國被創造為一個擴張主義國家的方式，就像我們以前從未在地球上見過的那樣，但這隻是我們試圖創造區域血腥的第一部分，第二件事是 1823 年的門羅主義，老總統詹姆斯·門羅告訴歐洲人，我們現在沒有足夠的力量將你們趕出去，但是終有一天，我們會把你們趕出西半球，一旦我們把你們趕出去，你們就不受歡迎了，這是我們的半球，我們統治它，任何遙遠的大國都不允許進入我們的半球，正如他自己承認的那樣，約翰·米爾·希默毫無歉意地支持美國，並推進了一個明確的議程，想想他是如何警告澳大利亞觀眾不要與中國進行貿易的，這意味著如果他們違抗我們的利益，他們可能會麵臨與菲德爾·卡斯特羅的古巴相同的孤立和後果，有些人說還有另一種選擇，你可以和中國一起，對吧，你有一個選擇，你可以和中國一起，而不是和美國一起，關於這一點，我要說兩件事，第一，如果你和中國一起，你要明白你是我們的敵人，然後你決定成為美國的敵人，因為我們又在談論一場激烈的安全競爭，你要麽和我們在一起，要麽和我們作對，如果你與中國進行著廣泛的貿易往來，你與中國保持著友好關係，你正在這場安全競爭中破壞美國，從我們的角度來看，你正在喂養這頭野獸，這不會讓我們高興，當我們不高興時，你不會想低估我們的惡劣程度，對吧，隻要問問菲德爾·卡斯特羅約翰·米爾·希默似乎正在改變他的敘述，表達希望他的預測是錯誤的，這很可能是因為現在美國阻止中國崛起已經太晚了，最終美國必須接受中國在世界上的地位，最後我再說一遍，約翰·米爾·希默是一位備受推崇的進攻性現實主義思想家，這一學派植根於19世紀的權力平衡理論，接受全麵戰爭的可能性，這一觀點與傳統的美國大國觀點非常吻合，然而現代世界不再在這些條件下運作，堅持這種觀點有可能導致我們走向相互毀滅感謝您的觀看，如果您發現這段視頻很有見地，請不要忘記點讚、分享和訂閱，以便更深入地了解地緣政治和全球權力轉移。

2025年1月3日  
John Mearsheimer appears to be shifting his narrative, expressing hope that he is wrong in his predictions. This is because China is strategically avoiding giving the U.S. the conflict it seems to seek. And perhaps he has begun to recognize that it is too late for the U.S. to contain China's rise.

A significant flaw in John Mearsheimer's perspective is his assumption that all nations will act in the same way as the United States. And it is dangerous to view the world or the geopolitics at play from that lens alone. Offensive realism, as outlined by John Mearsheimer, is a theory in international relations that argues great powers are inherently driven to seek dominance in the international system to ensure their survival. According to this view, states act aggressively to maximize their power and security in an anarchic world where no central authority exists to enforce rules. This approach is dangerous because it assumes conflict is inevitable, promoting zero-sum competition and mistrust between nations. In a nuclear-armed world, such behavior increases the risk of catastrophic wars, as states may miscalculate or escalate conflicts in their pursuit of supremacy.

John Mearsheimer states that he doesn't view the Chinese as the bad guys or the Americans as the good guys, framing his perspective as a reflection of how international politics operates. However, he cleverly equates China and the U.S. to support his narrative, asserting that China will inevitably mimic America's behavior. Yet, this comparison falls short. Unlike the U.S., China lacks imperialistic ambitions and does not operate as a ruthless hegemon. Historically and culturally, the differences between the two nations are profound. Over the years, Mearsheimer’s lectures have made it clear who the aggressors are. As Jeffrey Sachs aptly remarked, no one explains the U.S. better than Mearsheimer. In contrast, China champions cooperation and a shared future for humanity—a stark reminder that China has not bombed another country in over 40 years.

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what you should all really hope for is that China does not continue to grow John Mir shimer appears to be shifting his narrative expressing hope that he is wrong in his predictions one of the reasons is because China is strategically avoiding giving the US the conflict it seems to seek this became evident when President Xi Jinping informed Ursula VLAN that the US is deliberately provoking and pressuring China into a confrontation over Taiwan what would prove me wrong is if we had good relations in other words if China could rise peacefully right in other words my theory was wrong let's hope
that I'm wrong uh I have a simple theory about how the world works and I believe that that theory has a lot of explanatory power offensive realism as outlined by John mimer is a theory in international relations that argues great powers are inherently driven to seek dominance in the International System to ensure their survival according to this view States act agressively to maximize their power and Security in an anarchic world where no
Central Authority exists to enforce rules this approach is dangerous because it assumes conflict is inevitable promoting zero some competition and
mistrust between nations in a nuclear
armed World such Behavior increases the
risk of catastrophic Wars as States May
miscalculate or escalate conflicts in
their pursuit of Supremacy the other reasons why John Mir shimer appears to be shifting his narrative is because the US is right now heavily engaging Ukraine and in the Middle East and it's not going to be over soon the United States is principally interested in containing China uh I think the United States fears the fact that China is becoming more powerful uh and that it is not a status
quo power in East Asia the problem that
the Americans face today is that they
can't concentrate on containing China
because the United States is deeply
involved in the Ukraine war and it's
deeply involved in the various Wars that
Israel is fighting in the Middle East
but nevertheless uh the United States is
committed uh to containing China and of
course from a Chinese point of view this is unacceptable uh and I fully understand that from China's point of view China wants to grow more and more powerful but again this is not in the American interest so it is a fierce competition and as best I can tell this is a competition that will last for many decades if not the rest of the 21st century I admire John meher's insightful analysis of both the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict I also agree with Jeffrey saxs that no one explains us actions and policies better than Mir shimer John mimer is a highly regarded thinker in offensive realism a school of thought
rooted in 19th century balance of power
theory that accepts the possibility of
Total War this perspective aligns
closely with the traditional us great
power Outlook however the modern world
no longer operates under these conditions and clinging to such views risks driving us toward Mutual destruction a significant flaw in John meher's perspective is his assumption that all nations will act in the same way as the United States China is going to try and imitate
the United States notice how John mimer
cleverly places both China and the US in
the same boat to reinforce his narrative
and validate his perspective first of all as I said I don't think the root of the problem problem is Chinese Behavior
it's I don't think the Chinese are the
bad guys uh and the Americans are the
good guys I think this is just how
International politics works and
although I'm an American and I'm rooting
for the Americans the fact is that uh
this is a case of a tragic situation
however John Mir shimer has made several
claims that the United States of America
is a ruthless hij the United States is
it's not simply containing China we're
talking about a roll back strategy the
United States as many of you know and
probably many of you don't know is a
ruthless great power you never want to
underestimate how ruthless the United
States is despite all the liberal rhetoric that we use to cover up our ruthless Behavior we are tough customers
and the Chinese are finding that that
finding that out now in the early 1990s
when I told the Chinese if you continue
to grow economically there's going to be
a fierce security competition and you're
going to be shocked at how ruthless the
United States is they simply didn't
believe me because the United States was
treating them very well at the time I
said what you don't understand is that
the structure is going to change and
when the structure changes when we go
from unipolarity to multipolarity and
you're a pure competitor we're going to
think about you very differently than we
think about you now and that's exactly
what's happening check this out no one
explained the United States of America am better than John me shimer and I want to tell you a story about the United States of America that most of you don't know certainly most Americans don't know this story because we have this idealistic story about Noble America that bears little resemblance to reality the United States and what I'm going to do here is try and convince you that the United States since 1783 in terms of foreign policy has acted according to my theory that's what I'm going to try and do 1783 the United States started out as
133 measly colonies strung out along the Atlantic Seaboard what did we do we marched across the continent to the Pacific Ocean we murdered huge numbers of Native Americans we stole their land we went to war with Mexico in the middle of the 19th century and we stole from Mexico it is now the southwest of the
United States we invaded Canada in 1812 for the express purpose of making Canada part of the United States for those of you who don't know the reason Toronto is
not the capital of Canada and Ottawa is the capital of Canada CU they expected us to pay a return visit Furthermore with regard to the Caribbean we'd own all the Caribbean now places like Cuba and Puerto Rico would
be American states if it weren't for the fact that it was inextricably tied up with the issue of slavery and the northern states said we're not going into the Caribbean
because there are too many slaves down there those are slaveholding states and we don't want any more slaveholding States we had a vicious appetite for
Conquest Adolf Hitler when he went into the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941 sometimes talked about imitating
the Americans and their ability to conquer and gain territory he admired us greatly he was trying to emulate us he referred to the vulgar the vulgar River
as my Mississippi that's how the United States
was created an expansionist country like
we've never seen on the planet before
but that's just the first part of our
attempt to create Regional hemony second
thing we did was the Monroe Doctrine in
1823 old President James Monroe he told
the Europeans we're not powerful enough
to throw you out now but there's going
to come a day when we're going to run
you out of the Western Hemisphere and
once we run you out you're not welcome
back this is our hemisphere we run it no
distant great powers are allowed in our
hemisphere as he himself admitted John
Mir shimer is unapologetically rooting
for America and advancing a clear agenda
consider how he warned the Australian
audience against trading with China
implying they could face the same isolation and consequences as Fidel Castro's Cuba if they defied us interests some people say there's an alternative you can go with China right you have a choice here you can go with
China rather than United States there's
two things I'll say about that number
one if you go with China you want to
understand you are our enemy you are
then deciding to become an enemy of the
United States because we're again we're
talking about an intense security
competition you're either with us or
against us and if you're trading
extensively with China and you're
friendly with China you're undermining the United
States in this security competition
you're feeding the beast from our
perspective and that is not going to
make us happy and when we are not happy
you do not want to underestimate how
nasty we can be right just ask Fidel
Castro John Mir shimer appears to be
shifting his narrative expressing hope
that he is wrong in his predictions this
is most likely because it is too late
for the us to stop China's rise at the
end the US has to accept China's place
in the world lastly I repeat John Mir
shimer is a highly regarded thinker in
offensive realism a school of thought
rooted in 19th century balance of power
theory that accepts the possibility of
Total War this perspective aligns
closely with the traditional us great
power Outlook however the modern world
no longer operates under these conditions and clinging to such views risks driving us toward Mutual destruction thank you for watching if you found this video insightful don't forget to like share and subscribe for more deep Dives in the geopolitics and Global power shifts.