挪威 Glenn Diesen 提醒中國 美打壓無效 想要戰爭

“現在的中國太強大了”美打壓無效 挪威學者提醒中國：美想要戰爭。勿落入“台灣陷阱”

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti6V_dQj9hg

Glenn Diesen 挪威東南大學教授中天新聞 2024年9月26日

 

在西方，至少在過去十年裏，我們一直預測中國和俄羅斯會開始爭奪中亞，但他們並沒有這樣做，他們試圖滿足彼此的利益，沒有人尋求對衝資金，因此他們可以避免零和博弈的安全方法，所以我認為美國已經嚐試了一切，現在他們做了很多破壞中國科技產業的事情，你知道，通過芯片帶，鼓勵其他國家與中國脫鉤，他們可以對交通走廊施加壓力，獲得融資，再次有很多美國已經做到了，但這些都不起作用，他們本可以在 10 年或 20 年前做到這一點，但現在中國太大了，為時已晚，俄羅斯的巨大變化發生在 2014 年，當時發生了兩件事，一是他們擁有的大歐洲倡議已經失敗，二是出現了另一種模式，所以重要的是要意識到，在過去的 300 年裏，自彼得大帝以來，俄羅斯一直向西方尋求現代化，自 18 世紀初以來，西方是主要技術所在，西方也主宰著海洋，因為主要的交通走廊可以物理連接世界，這也是世界金融連通性的領域，所以他們擁有一切，這就是為什麽俄羅斯融入追求繁榮和現代化的國際經濟體係總是意味著要歐洲化俄羅斯，使其更加歐洲化，嗯，現在一直有人對此感到擔憂，尤其是那些讀過這些的人，19 世紀的學者認為，也許俄羅斯應該更多地向東方看，冷戰結束後，俄羅斯繼續向西方看，他們想與西方和平相處，他們想實現經濟現代化，所以他們開始推行非常親西方的政策，然而他們發現，這個大歐洲被否定了，這就是北約擴張所代表的，我們將建立一個沒有俄羅斯的歐洲，而沒有俄羅斯的歐洲很快就變成了一個反對俄羅斯的歐洲，因為我們不得不競爭新的分界線，而不是消除它們，所以問題一直在積累，2014 年，一切都破裂了，因為在那之前，俄羅斯的許多人認為，也許我們可以逐步與西方融合，但當西方領導烏克蘭政府時，這是一個明確的信號，烏克蘭不會成為一座橋梁，而會成為一條前線，當俄羅斯占領克裏米亞，以保護其黑海艦隊時，所有的製裁都來了，甚至少數那些仍然想追求更大歐洲的俄羅斯人必須認識到，這是一個烏托邦，它永遠不會發生，而同時發生的事情，在 2013 年的同一時間，正是在這個時候，中國才真正開始為替代性的國際經濟體係奠定基礎，也就是中國人開始推動這個“一帶一路”倡議，他們開始更公開地宣稱要在世界上占據技術領導地位，中國開始推進這個新的金融機構，無論是亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，還是希望將其貨幣國際化，我們看到 SEO 或磚塊代表著一個基於多極化的世界秩序，在這個秩序中，大國尋求協調彼此的利益，而不是追求統治地位和全球享樂，認識到這一點非常重要，因為在西方，我們至少在過去十年裏，我們一直預測中國和俄羅斯會開始爭奪中亞，但他們沒有，他們試圖滿足彼此的利益，沒有人尋求對衝資金，因此他們可以避免危機，采取一些安全措施，因此，東方突然出現了一個新的體係，因此，對於俄羅斯來說，這是曆史上非常重要的時期，當它走向東方時，它注意到自己沒有同樣的曆史包袱，沒有遇到同樣的敵意，甚至中國是那裏最大的國家，而不是俄羅斯，這實際上經常對俄羅斯有利，所以我認為 2014 年是一個真正的主要時代，因為這是歐洲真正關上俄羅斯大門的時候，東方打開了一扇新的大門，那就是中國，而正是在那時，更大的歐洲歐亞大陸的野心才真正開始向前發展，俄羅斯的主要問題一直是它與西方之間存在不利的不對稱相互依存關係，所以我們經常說國家之間的相互依存是好的，它在某種程度上創造了和平，因為在所有相互依存的關係中，一方總是會更加依賴另一方，所以這是與人以及現在的國家，當你有巨大的不對稱時，一方可以利用這一點從另一方那裏獲取政治權力，所以讓我們舉個例子，西方和俄羅斯之間的關係，如果俄羅斯 90% 的貿易依賴西方，而西方 3% 的貿易依賴俄羅斯，這是不對稱的，現在西方對俄羅斯的依賴程度遠低於俄羅斯對西方的依賴程度，西方可以利用這一點來獲取政治讓步，這就是我們看到的，我們看到俄羅斯在 ITS 技術、交通走廊、銀行貨幣、支付係統、保險係統等方麵都依賴西方，歐洲唯一真正依賴俄羅斯的是能源，我們盡一切努力減少這種依賴，以實現最大程度的相互依賴，因為在任何相互依賴的關係中，你都會獲得一些影響力，但如果你擁有不對稱的相互依賴，你就會失去一些自主權，你保持了自主權，你就會獲得對另一方的影響力，所以這是俄羅斯的問題，這是建立俄羅斯的條件沒有俄羅斯的歐洲，你怎麽能擁有一個沒有俄羅斯的歐洲，而我們卻把歐洲大陸上最大的國家留給俄羅斯呢？如果他們想擁有一些政治自主權和安全，並在多極世界中扮演一個獨立的權力極點，他們需要多樣化他們的夥伴關係，是的，他們需要在關鍵領域擁有一些戰略自主權，例如技術能源，但他們需要多樣化夥伴關係，而這正是他們未能做到的，所以理想情況下，俄羅斯應該與中國非常接近，但也要與印度、伊朗、韓國、日本以及歐盟保持密切聯係，以便擁有盡可能多的合作夥伴，這樣就沒有人可以欺負它，所以這種對西方的過度依賴真的是我所說的赤裸裸的，這對俄羅斯非常有害，我認為俄羅斯人會有些擔心，不要在東方重演這種情況，換句話說，俄羅斯向東方的轉向不能簡單地變成向中國的轉向，因為中國要強大得多至少在經濟上比俄羅斯強，所以它不想陷入這樣的夥伴關係：95% 的貿易依賴於中國，而 2% 的中國貿易依賴於俄羅斯，因為那將是一種非常不平衡的關係，所以這意味著俄羅斯必須使其夥伴關係多樣化，是的，不僅要與中國融合，還要關注印度、伊朗、韓國和世界其他國家，對俄羅斯人來說，非常愉快的經曆是，中國對此表示同意，他們沒有破壞它，這對俄羅斯人來說是新鮮事，因為每當西方國家與烏克蘭、中亞、土耳其、亞美尼亞打交道時，一個關鍵目標始終是將它們與俄羅斯脫鉤，切斷它們之間的聯係，而中國人從來沒有這樣做過，部分原因是，如果中國想重建一個中國的對衝基金來取代美國的對衝基金，那麽中國對多極體係感到滿意他們會試圖切斷俄羅斯與其他國家的聯係，使其處於從屬地位，但俄羅斯並沒有這樣做，這讓俄羅斯人非常放心，這也是我們看到多極體係出現的一個跡象，是的，中國是領先國家，但它並不尋求主宰其他國家。我十年前寫了這本書，這是俄羅斯對大歐亞大陸的地緣經濟戰略。我曾指出，這種軟平衡必須到位，才能使大歐亞大陸的一體化持久，但目前，他們正在深入參與與中國的夥伴關係，他們對此感到非常滿意，因為他們可以保持政治自主權，所以十年前這本書並沒有受到人們的歡迎，人們說這種權宜之計永遠不會實現美元化，這幾乎是科幻小說，但我們現在看到了十年後的今天嗯，這就是事情發展的方向，因為各國將尋求我所說的依賴平衡，這也成為一種陳詞濫調，你知道一個霸主或一個領導大國不會和平地將權力移交給下一個霸主，嗯，通常會有衝突，嗯，我認為美國已經嚐試了一切，現在他們做了很多來破壞中國的技術產業，你知道，通過芯片帶，鼓勵其他國家與中國脫鉤，他們可以再次對交通走廊的融資渠道施加壓力，美國做了很多事情，但這些都沒有奏效，嗯，他們可能在10年或20年前就可以這樣做，但現在中國太大了，為時已晚，所以這就是為什麽美國現在傾向於軍事化競爭，這就是為什麽擁有一個代理人很重要，不一定是台灣，也可能是菲律賓，因為你知道，他們是偉大的帝國，他們盡量不派自己的軍隊去戰鬥如果你不想用自己的軍隊與俄羅斯或中國這樣的大國作戰，那麽這將是毀滅性的，他們可能會失敗，並可能升級為核戰爭，所以最好與代理人作戰，如果你要與俄羅斯人作戰，那麽顯然烏克蘭將是他們現在最好的代理人，與中國人作戰，是的，你會使用台灣或菲律賓，這是美國人沒有派遣武器的地方，鼓勵與北京建立更敵對的關係，這就是美國人在一個中國原則下的發展方向，美國人應該將自己限製在與台灣的經濟和文化聯係上，相反，我們現在看到他們正在派遣他們的高級政治家去那裏，這是一個突破口，他們正在派遣軍事教練去那裏，這是一座橋梁，他們正在一步一步地試圖拆除它，所以要求更多的代表權在聯合國等國際機構中為台灣爭取主權，這實際上開始賦予它主權國家的地位，這是不正確的，因為我們與中國的和平與穩定是基於這樣一個原則，即隻有一個中國，台灣是中國的一部分，如果我們試圖放棄這一點，那麽就會有戰爭，如果對台灣使用武力不符合中國的利益，我認為中國非常有信心地認為，隨著經濟增長，它將能夠通過和平方式整合台灣，經濟連通性，所以你知道，也許在等待更有利的政府，所以我認為中國會使用武力的唯一原因是，如果美國人推動台灣分裂，我認為這是中國的紅線，中國人現在應該小心，因為如果美國人正在尋找代理人戰爭，就像他們對烏克蘭所做的那樣，因為請記住在烏克蘭也發生了同樣的事情，俄羅斯人進入了烏克蘭，因為美國破壞了所有的和平協議，他們帶著軍隊進入了烏克蘭，這是無端的入侵，在他們試圖入侵的第一天，他們就聯係了烏克蘭人開始進行和平談判，他們也確實進行了，但後來美國人來破壞了談判，因為他們想要戰爭，他們選擇了戰爭，這就是為什麽這是一個呃，應該小心，不要在台灣問題上陷入類似的陷阱，但中國和俄羅斯在過去 30 年裏與華盛頓的關係不同，因為呃，中國的地位比俄羅斯更有利，他們在邊境上設立了軍事封鎖，逐漸擴大，他們從來沒有被提供維持現狀的機會，相反，他們不得不看到北約在他的邊境上緩慢行進，其後果是相當可預測的，所以這往往使得俄羅斯有必要采取超水平發揮，真正展示自己的實力，甚至超出了它有能力采取的行動，現在中國的情況正好相反，中國沒有軍事封鎖在邊境上行進，中國試圖不製造任何波瀾，所以也被稱為和平大米，隻是試圖不引起太多的關注，這會讓占主導地位的嗯，美國帝國對中國的打擊，試圖將其推翻，這就是為什麽我們看到中國和俄羅斯走上了不同的道路，但現在中國已經變得過於強大，讓美國感到不安，所以現在他們也不得不公開露麵，開始反擊，這就是我們所看到的皇家關懷

 

"現在的中國太強大了"美打壓無效 挪威學者提醒中國:美想要戰爭.勿落入"台灣陷阱"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti6V_dQj9hg

Glenn Diesen Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway中天新聞  2024年9月26日

 

 

in the west we at least for the past

decade we always predicted that the

Chinese and Russians would start to

fight over Central Asia but they don't

they attempt to accommodate each other's

interest no one is seeking hedge money

and thus they can avoid the Zero Sum

approach to security so and um I think

the United States have tried everything

now they did a lot to sabotage China's

technological Industries uh you know

with the chip bands uh encouraging other

countries to decouple from China uh they

can uh put put pressure on Transportation corridors access to

finance uh again there's a lot the

United States has done uh uh but none of

this is working uh it's they could have

done this maybe 10 or 20 years ago but

now China's too big it's too late the big change for Russia came in 2014 uh and there was two things that happened one uh the greater Europe

initiative they have they had died and

also an alternative uran uh format

emerged so it's important to realize

that for the past 300 years uh since

Peter the Great uh Russia always look

towards the West for modernization also

since the early 18th century uh in the

west is where the main Technologies were

the West also dominated the Seas as

where the main transportation corridors

are which can physically connect the

world uh was also this was the area of

financial uh connectivity of the world

so they had everything that this is why

Russia's integration into an international economic system pursuing

prosperity and modernity always meant to

europeanize Russia to make it more more

European um now there's always been some

concerns about this especially those who

read dovi all this 19th century Scholars

arguing that perhaps Russia should look

more towards the east uh any after the

Cold War uh Russia continued this tradition of looking to the West they

wanted to make peace with the West they

wanted to modernize their economies so

they began to then pursue this uh very

Pro Western policies uh however what

they found out was that this greater

Europe was denied that's what NATO expansion represented that we were going

to create a Europe without Russia and a

Europe without Russia quickly became a

Europe against Russia simply because we

then had to compete over where the new

dividing lines would be instead of removing them so so the the problems

always built up and in 2014 this is when everything broke

because until then many people in Russia

thought well perhaps we can uh have an

incremental integration with the west

but when the West toled the government

in Ukraine this was the clear signal

that the Ukraine would not be a bridge

but it would be a front line and when

Russia took Crimea uh in order to safeguard its Black Sea Fleet then and

all the sanctions came even the few

Russians who still wanted to pursue

greater Europe had to recognize this was

uh Utopia it wasn't was never going to

happen and what happened at the same

time exactly the same time in 20134 well this is when China really

began to lay the foundations for an

alternative International economic

system that is the Chinese began to push

this belt and Road initiative um they

started to more openly assert ambition

to take technological leadership in the

world China began to advance this new

financial institutions be it the Asian

infrastructure Investment Bank uh

looking to internationalize its currency

we see that SEO or bricks it represents

a world order based on multipolarity in

which the great Powers they seek to

harmonize interest with each other

rather than pursue the dominance and

Global hedony and this is very important

to recognize because in the west we we

at least for the past decade we always

predicted that the Chinese and Russians

would start to fight over Central Asia

but they don't they attempt to accommodate each other's interest no one

is seeking hedge money and thus they can

avoid the seros some approach to

security so this so suddenly a new

system emerged in the East so this was

tremendously important time in history

for Russia when it goes to the east it

notices that it doesn't have the same

historical baggage it doesn't meet the

same hostility and even the fact that

China is the biggest country there not

Russia it actually works often to to

Russia's Advantage so I think 2014 was

really the main era because this is when

uh Europe really slammed the door in the

face of Russia and a new door opened in

the East which was China and that's when

this greater Euro Eurasia ambition

really began to move forward the main

problem for Russia has always been it

had unfavor able uh asymmetrical interdependence with the West so we

often say that interdependence between

nations is good it creates peace well

yes to some extent because in all

interdependent relationships one will

always be more dependent on the other so

uh this goes with people as well as

States now when you have huge asymmetries then one side can use that

to extract political power from the rest

so let's say for example relationship

between the collective West and Russia

if uh 90% of Russian trade is dependent

on the west while 3% of the West Trade

is dependent on Russia this is asymmetrical now the West has a it's

much less dependent on Russia than

Russia is on the west and the West can

use this to extract political concessions now uh and and and this is

what we saw we saw that Russia being

dependent on the west for ITS Technologies access to Transportation

corridors Banks currencies Payment

Systems Insurance systems uh everything

the only thing really Europe was

dependent on Russia was energy and we

did everything we could to reduce this

to have Max maximized interdependence

because in any interdependent

relationship you get some influence but

you lose some autonomy if you have

asymmetrical interdependence you

maintain your autonomy and you get

influence over the other so so this is

the problem for Russia this was the

condition for creating a Russia a Europe

without Russ without Russia how can you

have a Europe where we leave out the

largest country on the continent for

Russia if they want to have some

political autonomy and security and act

as an independent uh pole of power in a

multi-polar world they need to diversify

their Partnerships yes they need some

strategic autonomy in key sectors for

example Technology Energy but they need

to diversify Partnerships and this is

what they fail to do so ideally Russia

would you know be very close with China

but also India Iran Korea Japan but also

the EU us to to have as many partners as

possible so no one can bully it uh so

this excessive dependence on the west is

really uh the akake I I I would refer to

which was uh very damaging for Russia

what what I argued is that the Russians

will be somewhat concerned not to

recreate this in the east in other words

Russia's pivot to the east can't simply

become a pivot to China why well because

China is much much more powerful at

least economically than than Russia so

it doesn't want to get stuck in a

partnership where again 95% of his trade

is depend on China and you know 2% of

Chinese trade is depend on Russia

because that would be a very uneven

relationship so uh so this means Russia

really has to diversify its Partnerships

yeah so not just integrate with China

but also look a bit to India Iran Korea

and also the rest of the world and uh

what what has been a very pleasant

experience for the Russians is that

China is okay with it they're not

sabotaging it and this is something new

to the Russians because whenever Western

countries have deal with you know Ukraine Central Asia

Turkey Armenia a key objective is always

to decouple them from the Russians to

sever ties between them the Chinese have

never done this and part of the reason

is because China is happy with the

multi-polar system if China wanted to

recreate a Chinese hedge money to

replace an American one they would have

tried to cut Russia's tie from other

states and made it subordinate but it's

not doing this and this is what is very

reassuring to the Russians and this is

also an indicate indicator why we're

seeing a multi-polar system emerge where

yes China is the leading state but it's

not seeking to dominate others I wrote

this book a decade ago it's Russia's

geoeconomic strategy for greater Eurasia

where I kind of pointed out that this

soft balancing has to has to be in place

in order for the integration or greater

Eurasia to be durable but at this moment

they they're getting deeply involved

with the Chinese partnership and they're

very comfortable with it because uh they

can maintain their political autonomy so

again 10 years ago this book didn't

really wasn't received that well people

said this marriage of convenience they

never going to be any dollarization this

was almost science fiction but we see 10

years later now uh this is what this is

the direction things are going because

States will seek what I call a balance

of dependence well it's also become a

cliche that you know one heon or one

leading power doesn't hand over the

mantle peacefully to the next one uh

there's usually conflict and um I think the United

States have tried everything now they

did a lot to sabotage China's

technological Industries uh you know

with the chip bands uh encouraging other

countries to decouple from China uh they

can uh put pressure on Transportation

corridors access to finance again

there's a lot that the United States has

done uh uh but none of this is working

uh it's they could have done this maybe

10 or 20 years ago but now China's too

big it's too late so this is why the

United States is now leaning towards

militarizing the Rivalry instead and

that's why it's important with a with a

proxy well it doesn't have to be Taiwan

it could also be Philippines because uh

uh it's um you know great Empires they

try not to fight with with their own

troops also if you don't want to fight a

a huge uh huge great power like Russia

or China with your own military

it can it will be devastating they

probably would lose and it could

escalate into nuclear war so it's better

to fight with proxies and uh if you so

if you're going to fight the Russians

then obviously the for them Ukraine will

be the best the best proxy to fight now

with the Chinese uh yeah you would use

Taiwan or Philippines most likely which

is where the Americans are not sending

their weapons encouraging more

antagonistic relationship with Beijing

this is what the direction the Americans

are going uh under the one China principle

The Americans should limit themselves to

economic and cultural ties to Taiwan

instead we're seeing now that they're

sending their top politicians there

which is a breach they're sending

military trainers there which is a

bridge and they're so they're step step

by step uh trying to dismantle it so

asking for more representation for

Taiwan in international institutions

such as the UN so effect beginning to

give it status of a sovereign country

which is not correct because uh our our

peace and stability with China is based

on this principle that there is one

China Taiwan is a part of China and if

we try to abandon this then there will

be war and if and it's not in China's

interest to use military force against

Taiwan I think China is quite

confidently sees it as it economy grows

it will able to integrate Taiwan more

through peaceful means uh economic

connectivity so um so you know waiting

for more favorable government perhaps so

the only reason why I think China would

use military force is if the Americans

are pushing for Taiwan secession I think

that's the red line for China now the

Chinese should be careful because if the

Americans are looking for proxy war like

they did with Ukraine because keep in

mind in Ukraine the same thing happened

the Russians went in because America

sabotaged all peace agreements they went

in with the military which was this you

know unprovoked Invasion and on the

first day they attempted to they reached

out to the ukrainians to start with

peace negotiations which they did and

then the Americans came and sabotaged it

because they wanted a war and they chose

a war and this is why it's a uh one

should be careful not to walk into a

similar trap over Taiwan but China and

Russia has been have different uh

different relationship with Washington

over the past 30 years because uh China

had a more favorable position that the

Russians they had a military block

gradually expanding on their border they

were never offered a status quo instead

they had to see NATO March slowly on his

borders uh with the repercussions being

quite predictable H so this often made

it necessary for Russia to punch above

its weight to really Flex its muscles

Beyond even what it had the capability

to match with action now China was a bit

of the opposite favorable there was no

military block marching on his borders

it tried to not create any waves so what

what's also called a peaceful rice just

uh trying not to yeah create too much uh

attention draw too much attention to

itself which would make the dominant

well the American Empire strike against

China try to you know knock it down so

this is why we saw the different paths

by the Chinese and Russians but now of

course China's become too powerful for

America's comfort so now they kind of

have to come out of the closet as well

and start to push back which is what

we're seeing fore Royal care