China will account for about 21% of the world’s new economic activity from this year through 2029. That compares with 20% for the G-7, and almost double the nearly 12% for the US.
In total, 75% of global growth is expected to be concentrated in 20 countries, and over half in the top four: China, India, the US and Indonesia. India is expected to contribute about 14% over the next five years, up from almost 13% in the 2023-2028 period.
While the US and China are both big drivers of global growth, their fiscal policy and debt loads are seen as long-term risks to stability. Over the next few years, Bloomberg Economics projects that India could overtake China as the global growth leader on a purchasing power parity basis.
G-7 members Canada and Italy are expected to contribute less than 1% — a smaller amount compared to some much poorer countries such as Bangladesh or Egypt, where population growth is driving much of that activity.
