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李世默 中國新經濟與全球化

(2023-11-07 04:50:44) 下一個

中國新經濟與全球化 

https://kmf.com.my/presentation/kmf2023-feature-address-day1/

會議總結

隨著全球南方領導人要求達成新的發展協議,外圍國家/發展中國家正在挑戰中國的現狀。

最初的全球化“宏偉計劃”已經改變。 它始於以美國為首的西方經濟體,它們擁有最豐富的技術和經濟資源,而發展中國家則提供廉價勞動力、原材料和消費品的最終需求市場。

舊的“宏偉計劃”使美國和中國受益,但不再可持續。 西方一直抵製變革並限製外圍國家的經濟和技術增長。 然而,中國現在希望擺脫“邊緣”地位,成為全球化的核心。

為了成功擺脫邊緣地位,中國必須解決其廣泛的結構性挑戰。 在國內,中國的政治正在左轉,權力完全集中。 與美國日益激烈的科技戰以及科技與供應鏈的脫鉤使情況變得更糟。

中國經濟過去二十年的增長主要依靠三大支柱:(1)房地產占GDP的30%; (2)消費互聯網平台興起; (3) 產業能力和全球供應鏈建設。

如今,房地產的增長已經失去動力。 曾經是中國經濟主要增長引擎的國內房地產行業在激進的降溫措施、高杠杆的房地產開發商以及消費者需求破壞的拖累下已經崩潰。

過去十年中,壟斷和壟斷結構拖累了創新。 這些特征在當地市場產生連鎖反應,導致技術投資不足、技術創新停滯、不平等加劇和環境惡化。

全要素生產率不足。 自2010年以來,中國經濟似乎已達到生產率增長的上限,規模增長但生產率沒有實際提高。 這凸顯出中國舊的增長引擎已經不再有效。

中國經濟增長的後續發展取決於科技驅動的工業能力、新行業(新能源、生命科學)的增長以及更廣泛市場的結構性轉變。

中國最好的資產是擁有世界上最大的工業產能——比美國、日本和德國的總和還要大。 通過采用新技術對其進行升級,重新關注該行業,半導體、製造技術、生命科學和合成生物學等各個子行業呈現出 30-40% 的上升潛力。

中國已經在改變其經濟模式,提議對世界上最大的經濟體之一進行大規模的結構性改革。 這是通過自上而下的舉措推動的,以加速突破戰略領域的瓶頸; 因此,現有體係中會產生輸家,而贏家在短期內仍有待觀察。

中國麵臨的主要挑戰是創造一個“小院子大世界”,遠離西方的“小院子高籬笆”。 在中美戰爭中,“小院子、高圍欄”的概念是指為先進技術保留小院子,並修建高圍欄以阻止中國進入,但未來的一個大問題是,中國作為全球最大的南方國家是否會這樣做? 一個國家有能力在西方築起的“圍牆”之外引領並推動新一輪全球化浪潮。

Chinese New Economy and Globalisation - The Sequel Dr Eric Li, Kenneth Woo

https://kmf.com.my/presentation/kmf2023-feature-address-day1/

Session Summary

The peripherals/developing countries are now challenging the status quo with China as the leader of the Global South is demanding for a new development bargain.

The initial globalization ‘grand plan’ has change. It started with the US-led Western economies which possessed the greatest tech and economic resources, in contrast against developing countries providing cheap labour, raw materials and the end demand market for consumer products.

The old ‘grand plan’ benefited US and China but is no longer sustainable. The West has been resisting change and limiting the economic and technological growth of the peripherals. However, China now wants to move out of “peripheral” status and emerge as the core of globalization.

To successfully graduate from peripheral status, China must address its broad structural challenges. Domestically, politics in China is turning left with power being totally centralized. This is made worse by the intensifying tech war with US and the decoupling of tech and supply chains.

The growth of China’s economy in the past two decades has been anchored by three pillars: (1) Real estate which accounts for 30% of the country’s GDP; (2) The rise of consumer internet platforms; and (3) The buildup of industrial capacity and global supply chain.

Today, the growth of real estate has run out of steam. Once the main growth engine of the Chinese economy, the domestic real estate sector has collapsed, dragged by aggressive cooling measures, highly leveraged property developers and demand destruction by consumers.

Monopoly and monopsony structure have dragged innovation in the past decade. These characteristics in the local market have a chain reaction, causing the underinvestment in tech, stagnation of technological innovation, rising inequality and environmental degradation.

Insufficient Total Factor Productivity. The Chinese economy appears to have hit a ceiling in productivity growth since 2010, growing in size without actual productivity improvement. This highlights the fact that China’s old growth engines are no longer valid.

The sequel to Chinese economic growth depends on tech-enabled industrial capacity, and the growth of new sectors (new energy, life sciences) alongside structural shifts in the broader market.

China’s best asset is possessing the largest industrial capacity in the world — larger than the US, Japan and Germany combined. A renewed focus on this sector by upgrading it with new technology presents 30-40% upside potential through various sub-sectors such as semiconductors, manufacturing tech, life sciences and synthetic biology.

China is already changing its economic model, proposing a wholesale structural change to one of the biggest economies in the world. This is driven through top-down initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of chokepoints in strategic areas; hence, creating losers from the existing system while winners remain to be seen in the short-term.

The main challenge for China is in creating a ‘small yard, big world’, away from the West’s ‘small yard, high fence’. In the war between US and China, the concept of ‘small yard, high fence’ refers to keeping small yard for advanced technologies and building high fences to prevent Chinese access, but the big question moving forward is if China, as the biggest Global South country, is able to lead the way and drive a new wave of globalization outside the ‘fence’ created by the west.

李世默  全球化2.0

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eric-x-lis-globalization_b_1069669

內森·加德爾斯 作者:內森·加德爾斯,《世界郵報》撰稿人、主編

2011 年 11 月 1 日,|2012 年 1 月 1 日更新

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埃裏克·李(Eric X. Li)是近年來中國湧現的最有趣的全球思想家之一。

他是一位居住在上海的風險投資家,也是成為資本的首席執行官,該公司擁有優酷(YouTube 的中國版)以及鄭偉偉的《中國浪潮》(目前中國的暢銷書)的出版商。

以下文章改編自他在伯格魯恩研究所 21 世紀理事會上的演講,該理事會上周在 20 國集團峰會之前在巴黎舉行了會議。 李認為,接受中西文化的共存是經濟利益可持續融合的條件。 全球化2.0意味著多元身份的相互依存,而不是舊的西方主導的全球化1.0,它假定一種全球文化的普遍性。

巴黎——西方再次處於崩潰的邊緣,世界也隨之屏住了呼吸。 2008 年剛過不久,這次的震中就在歐洲。 距離戛納G20峰會召開還有一周,歐洲列強正在努力遏製希臘債務危機的持續蔓延。 淩晨時分,各國政府首腦和銀行家們再次以疲憊的目光達成了一項協議,其中涉及減記(具體細節尚待製定)、未來實施的緊縮措施以及火災等。 - 需要找到資金的圍牆救援基金。 聽起來有點熟?

薩科齊總統與胡錦濤主席通電話,遊說中國投資歐洲救助基金。 在21世紀理事會G20峰會前論壇上,阿爾·戈爾、格哈德·施羅德、戈登·布朗、埃內斯托·塞迪略和帕斯卡·拉米等世界領導人齊聚一堂,討論全球化的不穩定狀況,中國再次成為其中的大象。 房間。 他們問道,中國是否會挺身而出,為全球化提供迄今為止由美國領導的西方秩序承擔成本的公共產品? 他們說,這樣做似乎當然是中國的責任,因為中國已經搭上了西方國家提供的全球經濟和安全基礎設施,成為世界第二大經濟體,或者像許多人認為的那樣搭便車。

中國領導人的一位有影響力的外交政策顧問要求修改論壇公報,這最能說明中國的立場:將“中國領導的新興國家”改為“包括中國在內的新興國家”。 或者更好的是,根本不提中國。 相反,有人建議關注利益趨同,從而形成利益共同體。

自冷戰結束後全球化開始以來,西方和中國一直在平行宇宙中運作。 兩種版本的全球化同時發展。 全球化 1.0 是我們所知道的全球化,因為它是可見的、響亮的。 相比之下,全球化2.0一直是隱形的、安靜的。

從老布什的“世界新秩序”到克林頓的“奇跡時刻”,從老布什的“結束世界暴政”到奧巴馬的“為所有掌權者製定單一標準”,從世貿組織到國際貨幣基金組織, 從華爾街到賓夕法尼亞大道,從伊拉克到阿富汗,從華盛頓到奧斯陸,全球化1.0的支持者堅信全人類的普遍結果:自由選舉民主將統治每一個國家,一個永遠開放的市場(大寫M) )對於商品和資本來說,將創造一個單一的世界經濟,對每個人、每件事物、任何地方都有相同的規則,而將這一切統一起來的是那些被賦予上帝賦予權利的全能個人,他們都想喝星巴克咖啡加脫脂牛奶 。

二十年來,他們為了自己的普遍願景而領導這場運動,掏空了他們的祖先幾代人賺來的國庫,抵押了他們孩子的未來,耗盡了他們年輕士兵的生命,掏空了他們國家的工業,幾乎完全不顧一切。 為了他們自己文化的完整性和他們自己人民的福祉。 對於全球化1.0領域的國家來說,政治和商業精英獲得了全球化的大部分經濟和政治利益,而絕大多數人卻在節節敗退。
在全球化1.0的主導國家美國,華爾街、矽穀、好萊塢形成了三位一體,通過對政治體係的決定性影響,通過救助和政策癱瘓來捍衛自己所獲得的利益。

在歐洲,也是同樣的泥潭。 毫不奇怪,憤怒和沮喪正在走上街頭。 現在,同樣的精英們在電視上摸不著頭腦地問:“為什麽我們破產了?”。 也許他們麵臨的不僅僅是財務破產。 他們的全球化麵臨著潛在的道德破產。 這就是全球化1.0——基於普遍性的全球化。

還有另一個版本的全球化——全球化2.0——一直在發生。 沒有大膽的宣言,就比較安靜; 它的敘述可能不太連貫; 它不會讓人熱血沸騰,也不會點燃人們的想象力,為全人類帶來某種烏托邦般的結局。 它似乎在全球化1.0的陰影下運作,但卻與全球化1.0的元敘事背道而馳。 事實上,這是反元敘事。 二十年來,使數億人擺脫了貧困; 它以曆史上前所未有的速度實現了工業化; 它確實實現了現代化,但並未信奉現代性宗教。

對於全球化2.0領域的國家來說,精英們似乎認識到,他們的責任首先是改善本國人民的生活,他們權力的生存和合法性取決於他們的國家利益,而不是某種自我認知的命運。 經營世界。

全球化2.0的核心是文化作為人類文明基本單位的首要地位:相信每種文化或文明都是獨一無二的,並且應該從最底層開始看待。 在下麵沒有什麽可以以某種方式將它們統一起來,從而產生普遍的東西。 文化從根本上來說是不相適應的。 隻有認識到並尊重這種不相稱性,才能實現它們之間的利益融合,或許也能實現更加和平的世界秩序。 這就是全球化2.0——基於多元化的全球化。

我們正處於全球問題需要全球解決方案的時刻。 人類文明麵臨的巨大挑戰、氣候變化以及全球經濟在這些挑戰之間重新平衡的需要,似乎表明西方與其他國家之間的利益趨同是必要的。 那麽,為什麽這樣的全球解決方案沒有出現呢?
因為我們也正處在全球化1.0陷入困境、全球化2.0卻堅持沉默和隱形的時刻。 我們夾在中間。 但無論其意圖如何,2.0 或許都不能再如此壓抑了。 中國作為全球化2.0的領軍國家,正在成為許多人矚目的燈塔。 並不是說任何國家都可以效仿中國的道路,因為根據全球化2.0的定義,中國的道路是不可效仿的。 然而,可效仿的恰恰是這樣一種觀念:不存在可效仿的通用模式,每種文化都必須遵循自己的道路。

什麽樣的政治製度最適合他們,什麽樣的經濟模式適合他們的發展階段,什麽樣的基本價值觀應該構成他們的社會,這些問題對於不同的地方和民族來說都有獨特的答案。 他們的選擇應該得到尊重。 他們的聲音值得被聽到,尤其是全球化 1.0 領域的人民,他們的政治和商業精英以普遍性的名義剝奪了他們的遺產和未來。

許多聲音呼籲中國在全球體係中成為更加“負責任”的參與者。 一些人指責中國“搭便車”,沒有在幫助重新平衡支離破碎的世界經濟秩序方麵發揮建設性作用。 中國對擔任領導職務表現出明顯的猶豫甚至拒絕,要麽引起辭職,要麽引起不滿。 但這種情緒忽略了一個根本問題:西方是否真的準備好接受中國作為世界舞台上平等和合法的參與者? 西方能否與一個價值觀和觀點截然不同甚至對立的文明大國合作? 許多西方人隱藏在全球化1.0的自欺欺人之下,認為隨著中國的發展,中國將不可避免地最終采用被標榜為普世價值的西方價值觀。

這些人需要麵對這樣一個事實:中國,無論貧富、強弱,永遠不會成為一個以市場資本主義和個人為核心的自由選舉民主國家。 利益有效融合和中國發揮急需的領導作用的絆腳石不是中國不願意,而是西方社會對這一未來缺乏共識。 如果沒有這樣的共識,關於負責任行為和建設性合作的言論將隻是空談。

全球化還能繼續嗎? 世界的未來是合作還是衝突?

答案在於世界能否順利實現全球化操作係統從1.0到2.0的切換。 這並不像從 Windows 遷移到 Mac 那樣容易。 全世界都在焦慮地注視著。

Eric X. Li's Globalization 2.0

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eric-x-lis-globalization_b_1069669

 

Nathan Gardels  By Nathan Gardels, Contributor, Editor-in-chief, The WorldPost  

|
 
This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email.

Eric X. Li is one of the most interesting global thinkers to emerge from China in recent years.

He is a Shanghai-based venture capitalist and CEO of Chengwei Capital, which owns YouKu, the Chinese version of YouTube, as well as the publisher of Zheng Wei Wei's "The China Wave," a current best-seller in China.

Here is an article adapted from his presentation to the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council that met in Paris last week in advance of the G-20 Summit. Li argues that accepting the co-existence of incommensurate cultures in China and the West is the condition for a sustainable convergence of economic interests. Globalization 2.0 means the interdependence of plural identities instead of the old Western-dominated Globalization 1.0 which assumed the universality of one global culture.

Paris - Once again the West is on the brink, and along with it, the world is holding its breath. So soon after 2008, this time the epicenter is in Europe. One week before the G20 summit in Cannes, European powers are struggling to contain the Greek debt crisis that refuses to go away. Once again, in the wee hours of the morning, a deal was struck by heads of governments and bankers with weary eyes that involves write-downs of which the details are to be worked out, austerity measures to be implemented at future dates, and fire-wall rescue funds for which the money needs to be found. Sound familiar?

President Sarkozy got on the phone with President Hu Jintao to lobby for China's investment in Europe's rescue fund. At the Pre-G20 Summit Forum of the 21st Century Council, world leaders, such as Al Gore, Gerhard Schröder, Gordon Brown, Ernesto Zedillo and Pascal Lamy, gathered to discuss the precarious state of globalization and, again, China was the elephant in the room. Will China, they asked, step up and provide the public goods for globalization that so far the U.S.-led Western order has shouldered the costs? It certainly seems to be China's responsibility to do so, they say, as it has ridden, or free-ridden as many might contend, the Western provided global economic and security infrastructure to become the second largest economy in the world.

China's position is best illustrated by an influential foreign policy advisor to Chinese leaders who requested an edit to the forum's communiqué: the phrase "emergent nations led by China" was to be changed to "emergent nations including China". Or perhaps better yet, don't mention China at all. Rather a focus on convergence of interests leading to a community of interests was proposed.

Ever since the beginning of globalization at the end of the Cold War, the West and China have been operating in parallel universes. Two versions of globalization have been concurrently developing. Globalization 1.0 is globalization as we know it because it is visible and loud. Globalization 2.0, by contrast, has been invisible and quiet.

From George H. W. Bush's "new world order" to Bill Clinton's "moment of miracles", from George W. Bush's "ending tyranny in the world" to Barrack Obama's "single standard for all who hold power", from the WTO to the IMF, from Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue, from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Washington to Oslo, the proponents of Globalization 1.0 are convinced of a universal outcome for all of mankind: liberal electoral democracy shall rule every nation, an ever opening Market (with a capital M) for both goods and capital will create a singular world economy with the same rules for everyone, everything, and everywhere, and unifying it all are the almighty individuals endowed with God-given rights who all want to drink Starbucks coffee with non-fat milk.

For twenty years now, they have led this drive for their universal vision, emptying the treasuries earned over many generations by their forefathers, mortgaging their children's future, expending the lives of their young soldiers, hollowing out their countries' industries, with near complete disregard for the integrity of their own cultures and the welfare of their own peoples. For countries in the Globalization 1.0 sphere, the political and commercial elites have reaped the lion's share of the economic and political benefits of globalization while the vast majorities are losing ground.

In the United States, the leading nation of Globalization 1.0, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood form a holy trinity that, through its decisive influence on the political system, is guarding the benefits accrued to them with bailouts and policy paralysis. In Europe, it is the same quagmire. Little wonder that anger and frustrations are being taken to the streets. And now the same elites are on television scratching their heads asking: "why are we bankrupt?". Perhaps what they confront is much more than financial bankruptcy. It is potential moral bankruptcy that is facing their version of globalization. This is Globalization 1.0 - globalization based on universality.

Then there is another version of globalization - Globalization 2.0 - that has been taking place all along. It is quieter without bold proclamations; it is perhaps not so coherent in its narrative; it does not get one's blood boiling or set one's imagination on fire with some utopian end in sight for all mankind. It seems to be operating in the shadow of Globalization 1.0 but stands in fundamental opposition to the meta-narrative of Globalization 1.0. In fact, it is the anti-meta-narrative. In the last twenty years, it has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty; it has industrialized in a speed unprecedented in history; it has indeed modernized without subscribing to the religion of modernity.

For countries in the sphere of Globalization 2.0, elites seem to recognize that their responsibility is first and foremost to improve the livelihoods of their own peoples, and the survival and legitimacy of their power depends on their national interests rather than some self-perceived destiny to run the world.

At the core of Globalization 2.0 is the primacy of culture as the basic unit of human civilization: the belief that each culture or civilization is unique and should be seen as such from the very rock bottom. There is nothing more underneath that could somehow unify them and thereby produce something universal. Cultures are fundamentally incommensurate to each other. And only in recognizing and respecting this incommensurateness can the convergence of interests among them be realized, and perhaps a more peaceful world order along with it. This is Globalization 2.0 - globalization based on plurality.

We are at a moment when global problems demand global solutions. The monumental challenges facing human civilization, climate change and the need to re-balance the global economy among them, seem to indicate a necessary convergence of interests between the West and the rest. Why, then, are such global solutions not forthcoming?

It is because we are also at a moment when Globalization 1.0 is in trouble and Globalization 2.0 insists on remaining quiet and invisible. We are stuck in between. But perhaps 2.0 can no longer be so subdued regardless of its intention. China, the leading nation in Globalization 2.0, is becoming a beacon for many to see. Not that any country can emulate China's path, because it is by Globalization 2.0's definition not emulate-able. What is emulate-able, however, is the very idea that there is no emulate-able universal model and each culture must follow its own path.

What political systems are most suitable, what economic models fit their developmental stages, and what fundamental values should constitute their societies are questions with unique answers to different places and peoples. Their choices should be respected. Their voices deserve to be heard, not the least by the very peoples in the sphere of Globalization 1.0 where their political and commercial elites have, in the name of universality, robbed them of their heritages and their futures.

Many voices are calling on China to be a more "responsible" player in the global system. Some have accused China of "free-riding" and not playing a constructive role in helping re-balance a shattered world economic order. The pronounced hesitancy, and even refusal, to be placed into a leadership role by China is either noted with resignation or met with resentment. But this sentiment misses a fundamental question: Is the West truly prepared to accept China as an equal and legitimate player on the world stage? Can the West cooperate with a major civilizational power that stands for fundamentally different and even opposing values and outlooks? Many in the West have hidden behind the self-delusion of Globalization 1.0 that as China develops it will inevitably and eventually adopt Western values that are billed as universal values.

These people need to face the fact: China, rich or poor, powerful or weak, will NEVER become a liberal electoral democracy with market capitalism and the individual as the core unit of its society. The stumbling block to effective convergence of interests and China taking on the much needed leadership role is not China's unwillingness but the lack of consensus in Western societies on that future. Without such consensus, the rhetoric about responsible behavior and constructive cooperation will remain empty talks.

Can globalization continue? Does the world face a future of cooperation or conflicts? The answer lies in whether the world can smoothly switch the operating system of globalization from 1.0 to 2.0. It is not as easy as going from Windows to Mac. The world watches with anxiety.

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