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最近的幾件事情將原本陽光燦爛的奧巴馬總統之路罩下不少陰影，如果他不能走到盡頭，毀了他夢想的不是別人，正是他自己。
隨著民主黨全國代表大會的閉幕，馬侃立即確立副總統候選人是阿拉斯加州的州長佩琳女士，這一妙著使奧巴馬的總統候選人就職演說退熱，他頭上的光環也迅速褪色。在可預見的將來，奧的人氣可能會下滑。從下麵這幾件事情的發展看，奧巴馬不僅不是民主黨人所期望的所謂 "超級政治家"，其實他還很平庸。
第一件事情是在石油 "近海鑽探" 問題上，他沒有表現出優秀政治家的堅忍品格和曆練，他沒有頂住壓力堅持反對近海鑽探。
在油價還高漲的時候，馬侃極力推銷他的近海鑽探主張，而奧巴馬一開始即反對近海鑽探，但隨著老馬的廣告咄咄逼人地譴責奧巴馬既反對近海鑽探也反對建立核電站時，奧巴馬垮了下來，轉而支持 "有限度" 近海鑽探。此一舉讓人們看出，在壓力下，奧巴馬的 "見風使舵" 品格。
第二件事情是在選民主黨全國代表大會的日期上，奧巴馬的決定過於注重滿足自己的成就感，將個人裏程碑擺在了民主黨和國家的利益之上。
共和，民主兩黨選定全國代表大會的日期，延後舉行者具有後發製人的效果。也就是說，後舉行大會的政黨和候選人有隨機應變的好處。在選擇民主黨全國代表大會日期的問題上，共和黨人猜準奧巴馬會選擇金恩博士的生日作為他接受民主黨任命，代表民主黨出馬角逐美國總統大位的日子。而奧巴馬也 "當仁不讓" 的決定先期舉行，放棄後發製人的優勢，表現出奧巴馬過於注重滿足他個人的成就感。結果是處於劣勢的共和黨和馬侃可以 "後發製人"。奧巴馬的這一舉動頗有點象 "count the chickens before they are hatched" 的味道 (過早樂觀)，讓人看到他的政治智慧並不高超。
第三件事情是拒絕跟得到一千八百萬民主黨人投票支持的希拉麗·克林頓合作，共同成為這一屆的民主黨正副總統候選人。奧巴馬不顧近半數民主黨員的期望，偏執的挑選白登為副手，其後果很可能就是毀了奧巴馬的總統之夢想。
其實奧巴馬在這個問題上是可以表現出他真的是與眾不同的政治家，站在更高的層次上呼籲為了全黨團結，邀請希拉麗·克林頓作他的競選夥伴，如果他那樣做那他就真是改變了 (changed) 的政治家。否則，如果他連同黨的希拉麗·克林頓都不能合作，如何指望他跟共和黨人合作呢？
下圖是金筆前些日子收集的每日跟蹤民調資料，我們可以看出在奧巴馬公布副總統候選人前他小幅領先對手共和黨的馬侃。如八月十八日至二十四日間，由 USA Today/Gallup，Hotline/FD 和 ABC News/Washington Post 舉行的三次民調中，奧巴馬在支持度上小幅領先馬侃 3 至 4 個百分點。隨著奧巴馬公布白登是副總統候選人後，八月二十四日至二十六日間舉行的三次民調顯示 (Gallup Tracking， Rasmussen Tracking 以及 CNN) 奧巴馬和馬侃打成了平手!
為什麽奧巴馬挑選拜登做副手後民調不升反降呢？難道不值得深思嗎？
第二個圖是昨天收集的資料。每日跟蹤民調顯示隨著民主黨全國代表大會結束後，在八月二十八至三十日的 Gallup Tracking Poll 顯示奧巴馬以四十八領先馬侃的四十二，但隨著馬侃任命佩琳州長作競選夥伴後，CNN 的民調顯示兩者的支持率又一次持平!
資料來源：
RealClearPolitics.com
MCCAIN
0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA
28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN
15% (no change)
OBAMA
39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that 'Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.')
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes)
Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN
- 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA
Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least....New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
但是，等著答辮吧。如果美國人真的鐵著心往下流走再次將共和黨選上，那麽這大帝國的末路就暢開了。