雅歌創作歌曲，股評時事。
遺失在荒漠裏的歌
天然氣從3/4達到最低點1.5元後幾乎就是一路走高，上周五更漲到2.98元。這原因主要是：
1。四月份出現多次來自北極圈的寒流，使得中北和東北部四月份的氣溫如3月份的寒冷和下雪。而5月中到整個6月份的氣溫又偏熱，接近正常7月份才會有的氣溫。這是讓天然氣在這段期間消耗量比5年平均更高的主因。7月份開始，全美氣溫平均開始接近正常，隻是稍微偏熱。西部偏冷，而東部偏熱。南部從德州到佛州偏熱。
2。德州南部4-5月份淹水，使得天然氣的產量減少。這減產是暫時的。
3。兩次發生天然氣廠爆炸事件。這讓炒家借題發揮，把本來已經下跌的天然氣炒得更高。
4。天然氣價格跌至2元以下時，價格比煤炭還便宜。使得發電廠選擇更多的使用天然氣發電，又省錢又方便。然而這造成了煤炭在發電廠裏堆積如山。發電廠為了確保供應不斷，一般都有長期購買煤炭的合約。這表示未來發電廠會被迫使用更多的煤炭來發電。再說天然氣目前在2.75元以上，已經比同等發電量的煤炭價位高出20%-33%，對發電廠來說，經濟效益最重要，在不違法的前提下，盈利比環保更重要。
昨晚EIA出爐的詳細報告，天然氣日產量從上周的72.3BCF增加到73.5BCF， 平均消耗量從上周的72.5BCF減少到69.8。天然氣的庫存剩餘應該是72.1BCF。 俺估計下周的庫存增加會在（66，75）之間，如果是沒有異常的話。這是利空！
|
U.S. natural gas supply - Gas week: (6/30/16 - 7/6/16) |
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
Average daily values (Bcf/d): |
|
|
|
|
this week |
last week |
last year |
|
Marketed production |
81.0 |
80.0 |
82.1 |
|
Dry production |
73.5 |
72.6 |
74.1 |
|
Net Canada imports |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
|
LNG pipeline deliveries |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Total supply |
80.1 |
79.3 |
80.4 |
|
U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas week: (6/30/16 - 7/6/16) |
|||
|
|
|
||
|
|
Average daily values (Bcf/d): |
|
|
|
|
this week |
last week |
last year |
|
U.S. consumption |
59.1 |
61.5 |
58.1 |
|
Power |
32.3 |
34.0 |
30.1 |
|
Industrial |
19.5 |
19.6 |
19.5 |
|
Residential/commercial |
7.3 |
7.9 |
8.5 |
|
Mexico exports |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
|
Pipeloss fuel use/losses |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
|
LNG pipeline receipts |
0.7 |
0.4 |
- |
|
Total demand |
69.8 |
72.5 |
67.7 |
10/31/2016年天然氣的總庫存量應該會在4000-4250BCF之間，若未來是偏向4250BCF的一端，就是很利空，價格會在2.5元/MBTU以下。若是偏向4000BCF， 也是曆史新高，未來價位大概維持在2.5-2.9元之間。
從技術麵分析來看，7/5日天然氣的MACD交叉了，表示短期走勢改變方向，要往下走。然而會跌多少，就要看未來的庫存增幅是否高於50BCF或低於40BCF。若是低於40BCF， 可能不會跌，天然氣的價格會在2.65-2.8之間波動。若是高於50BCF，就會走出2012年天然氣走勢的格局，2012年從7-8月份，天然氣增幅平均在30BCf以下。
1BCF有占多大的空間呢？1BCF= 1000ft*1000ft*1000ft, 高度大概是上海或北京的時髦大樓（1060ft)。換成公尺1000ft=304.8m.
黃金從年初以來大約有超過200億美元的淨買入，這是不正常的。會購買黃金的隻有炒家，對衝基金和少部分的基金。其它的財團/企業機構很少會投資黃金的，以百分比來說，金價的漲幅不算大。目前黃金炒作已經太超過了，多頭資金已經太擁擠了。如果未來沒有出現更大的危機，黃金要繼續上漲不容易，“避險”的借口已經用爛了。今天的非農就業數據很強勁，若是未來沒有向下修正，代表經濟增長會加速！因為增加雇傭是企業看好前景最積極的表現！另一方麵，根據CNBC向大公司主管的調查，超過75%認為Brexit對美國和歐洲的經濟影響不大，幾乎可以忽略。隻有對英國本身的經濟有很大的影響。所以，像著名炒家George Soros 原本宣稱Brexit會造成歐盟3年內瓦解，後來見機不對，也趕快改口說希望大家支持歐盟，讓歐盟更堅強。
所以Brexit若真的影響有限，或實際影響延後至2017年以後，退歐談判啟動也不知何時才開始，這樣未來6個月可能不會看到對歐美經濟的影響。Brexit的炒作應該會沉澱，甚至消失。在這情況之下，金價要繼續上漲，似乎沒有任何推動力。炒家和對衝基金的資金不會做長期的投資，尤其是當可預見的盈利不大時，熱錢將流出做更有效的炒作。
昨天GLD（最大的黃金ETF）減少了近4噸，雖然還不夠大，若是未來可以持續看到庫存減少，而且有意義的減少，就可以確定炒家可能要撤離了。
========================
非農數據比預期的要好得多，市場預期175K，公布的數據是285K！ 盤前大盤期指大漲，估計近期股市標普500指數可能突破2035點，創新高！做空的必須非常小心！
FAZ暫時不要買進！等更低到36.5-37時再入場抄底！
DGAZ7.0-7.3可以買進，停損在6.9元！短期目標是8.02-8.3元。
DUST現在可以在6.0-6.2買進！停損在5.9元。DUST的目標價是7元！
看股市大盤的走勢，未來幾天應該會創新高。所以SVXY/XIV可以考慮買進。SVXY在53.7-54之間可以買進！停損在53.3。目標是60元以上！
SVXY/XIV的特性：
如果股市維持穩定，上下波動不大，即使未來兩周大盤指數沒漲多少，SVXY還是會快速上升！有可能兩周後就到65元！
回複 'babyfatface' 的評論 : SVXY還可以買，可以追高！
回複 'SkatingEmma' 的評論 : FCX買進價可以提高到10.8。俺覺得FCX未來幾天應該可以到11.5-12元之間。
===================================
7/11 今天不發新博文。可以在低下繼續發跟貼討論。
今天標普500大盤指數創新紀錄是毫無懸念的，如俺上周說的！然而今天開始是第二季度財報季節的開始，AA雖然已不在道瓊指數內，還是被拿來當著一個季度財報的好壞的參考。如果盤後Alcoa（AA）的財報不好，明天大盤可能要下跌。目前大盤還是很樂觀，AA盤前漲了1.3%，上周漲了共6%，表示市場看好AA的財報，應該不會出大意外。然而AA上漲的空間應改很有限。ER之前，俺認為最好不要買，風險很大，除非有很可靠的消息。
Dow Transport上周形成死亡交叉，技術麵是非常利空。根據傳統道瓊的理論，如果運輸板塊下跌，道瓊指數最後也會跟著下跌，因為經濟不可能太好。這是目前需要留意的。也有人說，運輸板塊不好主要是美國航空公司的股價下跌，原油上漲所造成的。
7/11跟貼補充：
回複 '秋涼好個天' 的評論 : 基本麵繼續支持原油上漲，但是空頭做空的意圖明顯。所以今天若是UWTI到27元以上，應該要先賣出50%，特別是倉位重的！
回複 '秋涼好個天' 的評論 : 南海局勢不穩定，但中國備戰不足，目前還沒有開戰的意圖，應該會采取忍，除非美國太平洋艦隊挑釁的太過分，發生意外。任何國際事件都對原油利多。俺不曉得空頭做空的目的，之前是因為假設Brexit會帶來全球大股災和經濟衰退。
目前Brexit基本上還沒對經濟造成任何影響。若是有其他的恐怖攻擊，破壞油井的事件發生，對原油是利多。也許會改變空頭MM轉向做多！
回複 '獨步溪頭' 的評論 : FCX的目標價已到，可以賣出50%-80%，隻保留部分到12.2。 （上周4定的目標區是11.5-12.0，買入價10.3-10.5，周五買入價提高至10.8）
回複 'ACME99' 的評論 : FAZ今天可以設36-36.5買進。停損在35.8。
看來AA的ER不錯，盤後漲很多。
我預感會有大調整。
UWTI的K線圖實在是不好看，看來明早還有一跌。希望不要這樣。
Thanks alot. Wait for your 號令.
雅歌1 2016-07-11 08:48:54 回複 悄悄話 回複 'bigcatwx' 的評論 : 82表示Extreme Greed， No Fear！
Then does this mean we should be fear and get ready to buy things like UVXY and SPXS? If so, when? like SP 500 reaches 2180? Thanks Master Yage.
周末愉快！
你機器的問題。
在價格高得時候， 你賣出股票， 讓你的broker 幫你買， 當價格下來了之後， 你cover掉， 賺中間的價差。
這兩天就像坐過山車一樣！還好有雅歌老師的實時點評指導， 還有拉麽多小夥伴們一起奮戰！
周末愉快！
各位大哥哥，SELL SHORT 到底是什麽意思啊？
雅歌認為不要賣， 下周會漲回去。
那種煤電鍋爐加氣的co-fire模式基本還是在理論上，沒有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用氣。目前新建的電廠80% 都用天燃氣。
現在天然氣電占28%。 煤電占39%。有多少氣煤共用的，能轉換的，有數據嗎？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term,
it was eventually abandoned.
。同時可以用煤和天然氣的電廠幾乎沒有（沒找到），因為轉換的困難和效率低，比分別燃每和燃氣都低，所以沒有電廠采用，倒是有少量采用其他混合燃料的發電廠，如生物燃料和垃圾等混合。誰要有證據可以貼出來，看有多少？看看對市場有多少影響？
那種煤電鍋爐加氣的co-fire模式基本還是在理論上，沒有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用氣。目前新建的電廠80% 都用天燃氣。
現在天然氣電占28%。 ，煤電占39%。有多少氣煤共用的，能轉換的，有數據嗎？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
。同時可以用煤和天然氣的電廠幾乎沒有（沒找到），因為轉換的困難和效率低，比分別燃每和燃氣都低，所以沒有電廠采用，倒是有少量采用其他混合燃料的發電廠，如生物燃料和垃圾等混合。誰要有證據可以貼出來，看有多少？看看對市場有多少影響？
那種煤電鍋爐加氣的co-fire模式基本還是在理論上，沒有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用氣。目前新建的電廠80% 都用天燃氣。
現在天然氣電占28%。 ，煤電占39%。有多少氣煤共用的，能轉換的，有數據嗎？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
引用的這一段，看最後一句：最終被遺棄了
那我每天盯著， 看到漲勢太猛， 就cover 掉。 如果有重大消息的時候出來， 以免萬一。現在還是小倉位試驗。
炒股就是要穩定的賺錢就好， 勝算概率大就好。
我等WTI45元破了才止損uwti
那我就少量買就是了， 不能用本金買， 隻能用馬金買嗎？ 現在是買什麽虧什麽， 過山車嚇個半死。
如果大家都注意到這個特性， 為什麽不都買這個？
現在油又偷偷往下滑， 會不會再往下有一波啊？
我現在不敢買SVXY 了， 以後多買這個， 買其它的太擔驚受怕了。 short UVXY 安全嗎？ 以後， 見UVXY 創了新高， 就short 它。
如果股市維持穩定，上下波動不大，即使未來兩周大盤指數沒漲多少，SVXY還是會快速上升！有可能兩周後就到65元！
http://bv.com/Home/news/solutions/energy/utilities-explore-dual-fuel-as-low-cost-option
雅歌老師，我做股票才幾個月，虧了一些小錢，主要是因為止損沒做好和沒有及時鎖利。不過感覺上基本麵分析很重要，順應趨勢可能更重要。搶反彈真的太累了，一不小心就被套住。既然股市上漲的時候遠多於下跌的時候，您是否覺得以操作SVXY為主，用大盤指數指明方向，每每下跌就進，利潤不錯，也不用太擔心套牢會是一個不錯的主意？
另外感謝您每天的指導，漲了很多知識，受益無窮。
鑽機數增加並不會很快增加產量。 從鑽井到出油要長時間， 而且，就這幾台鑽機， 新增的產量要比老井產量的遞減少很多，所以美國原油產量會繼續減少至少到年底如果鑽機數目不大幅度增加。
1。昨天MM砸盤砸得太低，自己也被套住，一時無法快速解套而不增加虧損！非農數據不但不差還很強勁，股市大盤上漲！
2。美元微漲，是有一點點壓力。
謝謝雅歌
沒啥動靜？ 我早上震出去的，現在要補進嗎？ 還是再等等？
増加了？
rig count 出來了嗎
(華爾街見聞7x24直播 不止是快) http://live.wallstreetcn.com/
長期看天然氣價格是要上漲的，短期2.6, 2.5是強支撐，
至於32 target 的DGAZ,這輩子都別想了，除了病股。
再者，美國電廠過多，氣便宜了，煤電廠停運，氣貴了，煤電廠重開，但這也不是一朝一夕的事。
https://btuanalytics.com/coal-to-gas-switching-in-2016/
我感覺是 兩個因素，一是人民幣貶值帶來的，二是A股短期頂部，有下調的可能
我知道Virginia tech剛完成供暖係統煤改氣，花了2 年多時間。
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
我知道Virginia tech鋼完成供暖係統煤改氣，花了 年多時間。
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html
鏈接分析文章說因為汽油
庫存巨大，煉油公司在出售，因為大盤都長成這樣了
MM不可能砸盤了
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/crude-oil-the-last-ugly-chapter-for-prices-is-yet-to-come.html
很多工廠，不僅僅是發電廠，還有製造，煉油，造紙，鋼鐵，都會用到燃料。這些廠根據煤炭價格，天然氣價格覺得用哪個燃料。當然這要看工廠的設計，不是所有的廠都這樣switch
我早上被停損出去了。 什麽時候再買進合適？Rig count 什麽時候出來？
rig count 什麽時候出來？
雅歌老師說了，45是最近兩周的低，現在隻不過是再試探一下底部而已
真是搞不懂， 怎麽還跌？
今天Uwti早上漲到 27.10時賣掉就好了， 結果現在跌到26 給止損出去了。
我有時賣早了， 它又一路漲上去，隻賺個零頭， 不賣呢， 掉頭下來， 又是掉一大塊肉， 真是賣也不是， 不賣也不是。
6月美國油井數目417座，較上月增加9座
明白了，多謝
你是不是說突破2135?
Good morning, 雅歌老師!
Thank you.