關於美國與加拿大房地產與經濟的討論整理-CND房地產線

CND房地產線關於美國與加拿大房地產與經濟的討論整理

 

（2009年7月13日至7月24日）

 

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評論者：beijing7750 2009-07-13 11:58

如山’s real life story is very inspirational to many CNDers, I am one of them.

I am practice 如山’s core concept now - buying properties at deep discount (30% after fix) and then re-fi. I will report the results once the re-fi is completed.
Please share your success and frustration.

如山回應

恭喜北京7750。我知道你這小子大有希望。 但現在唯一想提醒你的是，慢慢來，不要過度使用財務杠杆。 現在的環境要特別小心。

評論者：beijing7750 2009-07-19 00:59

Here is a typical case. One 3 bed 2 bath house, bought at about $150K (after all repaires). All expense (PITI) is about $1000, rean is $1600, cash flow $600 per month. Even the house price continues to fall (I do not think so in my area), I have nothing to worry (cash on cash return 20%).

Three years, same house sold for about $500k. The PITI would be $3000 (two time the rent).

the market tends to go extrem, that's the exemple of both.

如山回應

Good job!恭喜!!!
It sounds a great deal!

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評論者：Tom007（來自加拿大） 2009-07-20 12:03

在此線上從如山和眾大蝦學到很多知識。我有個疑問，美國房市已連跌數年，貸款利率已是曆史最低，為什麽美國房市還不好轉？加國房市總體上已經連漲近十年，隻是去年下半年到今年4月份全球金融危機最恐慌時房市連跌數月而已（其中還包括季節性淡季因素）。4月5月間，貸款利率降到曆史最低後，引發了大量的首次購房者入市，加國房市馬上又火起來了。與去年同期相比，全國6月房屋銷量猛增17.9%，大多倫多地區更是飆升27%，成交量創曆史記錄，平均售價也上漲2%。今天出來的報告說，與去年同期相比，7月份前2個星期，大多倫多地區銷量又升27%，平均售價又上漲4%，繼續火爆，搶Offer的事情幾乎每天在發生，很多性價比較好的房子都是在兩三天被搶走。我奇怪的是，美國房市為什麽還不是不行？居然現在還能用15萬買三年前值50萬的房子？

貸款利率，經濟狀況，失業率等情況，美加應該是差不多呀，如山或哪位大蝦能解惑？謝了先。

評論者：beijing7750 2009-07-20 18:17

Can you give us an example ? Price, rent of a house in 大多倫多地區? Rent has to be comparable (house to house, condo to condo).

評論者：Tom007

大多倫多地區Rent/Lease a house的市場好象很小，估計租一個average house一個月要3000多元。租condo的市場大些。據《多倫多星報》報道，在市中心，兩睡房單位（無車位）由1750元起至2100元，三睡房單位平均租金為3200元。

作為比較，市中心（離多倫多大學很近）一個新condo大樓，一個2臥2衛927尺單位，叫529K。同一地區，一個較舊的condo大樓裏一個2臥2衛近1000尺單位，叫“超值價43萬餘”。

評論者：beijing7750

The price and rent looks like most areas of California costal areas. Let’s look at the $400K condo. To own this condo, the monthly carrying cost is about $2000 (PITI, 5% rate). If the average house income is below $6000 (assumption: 33% income goes to house), I think this is over heated market. At this price, it is ok for primary residence. For investor, it is very risky.

評論者：beijing7750 2009-07-20 18:01

House prices depend on many factors, such as historic value (SF bay area always has higher price than most other areas), employment rate, P/E ratio (price/rent ratio), etc. I prefer to use P/E or P/R predict house price. When comparing to historic P/E value, if renting is much cheaper than owning, this means house is over priced. If owning is much cheaper than renting, that means house is under priced – this is also the case I described in previous poster. I already see multiple offers in areas when owning is much cheaper than renting, last week there was a house with 25 offers in 3 days. Market is efficient in long term not short term.

This applys in US market ONLY.

————如山回應：“士別三日，當刮目相看”。看來你老兄比我更像專家啦 。可喜！

 

如山回應

007高人好！
我沒這個預測能力。Venus是這方麵專家。看她是否願意出來說幾句吧。

評論者：Tom007

如山好！謝謝你在此線辛苦奉獻。

西樓女神在假先知那條線上說到房事: 一個說房市在recovering，一個說becoming worse. 咱們聽誰的？ 

Venus... 2009-07-21 10:24

專家可不敢說, 對加拿大經濟不了解. 前陣見到幾篇文章都主張把美元換成加元以保值, 沒時間細琢磨這事兒, 但幾位作者既然力挺加元, 應該對加的經濟有很強的信心吧? 好象大家對加拿大的銀行係統評價比較高.

房市呢, 有機會找找本地曆史平均線, 房價/ 房租, 房價/工資, 再者, 我覺得新移民的湧入對加拿大的影響比美國大.

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:35

我知道的美加房市的顯著區別是，在美國，Bank-owned房子太多太多，銀行不得不低價拋售；而在加國，Bank-owned房子相對很少，對市場衝擊就小。可是，在美國房市還沒好轉，甚至還可能惡化時，僅僅因為加國Bank-owned房子很少，就足以使加國房市逆美國房市而行，5/6/7月連續火爆並創曆史記錄？

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:54

加拿大的銀行係統很保守，政府對他們有很多限製，對他們的保護也很多。比如，房屋抵押貸款，如果你家房子市值已低於貸款餘額，你不能象在美國那樣把房子甩給銀行，拍屁股走人了事。在這裏，銀行有權利追溯你家所有的Asset（動產不動產）來償還欠銀行的錢。所以在這裏，不到萬不得已，一般不把房子交給銀行。

"新移民的湧入對加拿大的影響比美國大" ---的確如此. 每年近10萬新移民湧入大多倫多地區，很厲害。

評論者：Venus... 2009-07-21 12:06

加國銀行比美國同行聰明.

加拿大和美國不一樣, 就是美國自己每個地區也不一樣. 是不是泡沫, 也不好單從數據的絕對值看, 要和當地曆史平均值比. Tom自己要買房嗎? 如果美元衰退, 加元堅挺, 加上通貨膨脹(假設發生的話), 沒準兒是件好買賣呢. (先聲明賠了不負責任啊)

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 14:16

我看未必是“加國銀行比美國同行聰明”，而是政府對他們管製很多很保守。很多人一直說這個樣子加國銀行怎麽能與美國同行競爭？也許正是因為加國銀行無法與美國同行競爭，加國政府才對銀行業設置諸多條條框框，對加國銀行加以保護。這次危機對美國金融業來說是災難，可是對加國銀行衝擊並不大。所以加國保守黨總理Harper沾沾自喜地說，在發達國家中，加國的情況是最好的，可能是最快走出危機的發達國家。

你不知道俺們這嘎嗒的銀對你們多嫉妒呢　---　你們現在還能花不到三年前一半的價錢買房子，而俺們這嘎嗒房價還一個勁兒地往上串，很多人都在想去美國買房子。

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評論者：Tom007 2009-07-20 12:18

中國樓市隻漲不跌的秘密 (google this subject)

摘錄幾段：

第一次買房時，雖然我有能力一次性付清全款，但我還是不願意那麽多的現金被房子壓死。那時，正流行“零首付”，於是，我一分錢沒花，貸款18萬買了房（貸款期限為一年）。

一年期滿，要還房款和利息了。也不知道是我幸運呢？還是我倒黴！那時，我的資金被一筆業務占用了。為了業務，我不僅還不起房款不說，還得另外新增貸款。迫不得已，我找老關係——銀行的信貸部經理溝兌。當我吞吞吐吐的把“延期還房款並另外新增貸款”的要求說出來後，沒想到，信貸經理卻詭秘的一笑，非常爽快的答應了。

信貸經理給我出的主意很簡單：讓我老婆，以兩倍的價格，貸款買我的房子，貸款期限也是一年。

“兩倍的貸款，那就是兩倍的利息啊！你這不是變著方的剝削我嗎？”我還沒有反應過來。

“如果到時，你不還款呢？”信貸經理很鎮定。

“啊......”

“被銀行收房，沒有什麽大不了的！關鍵是除去稅費後，我還憑空白得了17萬。不，這17萬我可不能一個人得，我至少要分給他5萬。”很快，我反應過來。於是，我對信貸經理會心的一笑......

這，就是我第一次買房的經曆。

我後來的買房經曆都與此類似，也就是：堅決的不掏一分錢，全部用銀行的貸款買房子；然後，如果遇見不明真象的投資者（說是投資者，其實是傻帽）買房，那就高價賣給他。如果一直沒有投資者買房，那就不斷的把自己的房子加價轉貸給自己，不斷的用銀行的錢來還銀行的債。

此文所述情形，在美國有嗎？以如山的經驗，如果去中國，每年賺個數億，那還不是易如反掌？

評論者：西樓 2009-07-20 12:26

內外勾結，坑害銀行。很多年前就這樣。不過，那時好像得找一個不相幹的第三者高價貸款買進，這樣自己的信譽不成問題。

如山回應

哈哈哈。美國有這情況。不過那是準備去坐牢的幹活。

咱要是在中國說不定也這麽幹。不過現在在這裏嘛，已經被這裏“洗腦”啦 。不會再跑去中國幹這事了，就算有這能力。

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評論者：Venus... 2009-07-21 12:38

Sorry for typing in English. Just want to throw out what’s on my mind. The most important question we’re facing right now is, deflation or inflation?

Bernanke is hellbent on reflating. Back in 2003 he said in his speech that when everything else failed, the central bank should set a nominal price level target (instead of inflation rate target). This is similar to what Paul Krugman said before. To create inflation expectation in a deflationary environment, everybody has to believe that central banks will print money like no tomorrow and inflation is immediate.

Today Bernanke said they have an exit strategy. Does he want people to believe his words? I know I don’t. If everybody believes what Bernanke says, it’s self-defeating the recent efforts by Fed. If Bernanke is to succeed, we will have massive inflation. But then, will Bernanke get reappointed? What if US$$ collapsed before the price level target is hit? Political anger will be boiling.

What bothers me is, what about wages? I just don’t see how wage will improve, despite the swing in commodity prices. I might be off the topic here, but I actually think this is the paramount question for investment. Since obviously there is no clear answer, everything we do, buying, or sitting on hands, is a gamble.

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 14:24

從去年年底開始，很多人都認為美元要大貶值，高通漲時代就要來了。結果到現在還沒來。

還有，在高通漲時代，“房價會大漲”是定論嗎？如果在高通漲時代，貸款利率飛升，不是會有很多人無法還貸而被迫賣房子，從而使房價往下走嗎？

評論者：Venus... 2009-07-21 14:58

Tom007:
從去年年底開始，很多人都認為美元要大貶值，高通漲時代就要來了。結果到現在還沒來。
>> 半年不足以說明問題.

還有，在高通漲時代，“房價會大漲”是定論嗎？如果在高通漲時代，貸款利率飛升，不是會有很多人無法還貸而被迫賣房子，從而使房價往下走嗎？
>> 這是可能性之一. 更準確的說法是新購房者無力承擔高利率, 是demand 下降. (因為現有住房者已經鎖住利率, 假設不搬家的話.)

你不知道俺們這嘎嗒的銀對你們多嫉妒呢　---　你們現在還能花不到三年前一半的價錢買房子，
>> 少數泡沫地區是這樣. 但中高檔房, 即使在泡沫地區大概也沒降到這麽多. 房價近兩年內還會下滑.

而俺們這嘎嗒房價還一個勁兒地往上串，很多人都在想去美國買房子。
>> 又一個證據房市還沒到底.(Contrarian).

我現在也想不清楚. 可是, 從解決問題的角度來看, 美國要麽賴賬, 要末就通貨膨脹, 沒有其他方法來解決債務問題. 單靠經濟增長沒戲. 現在所有的措施無非是拖延時間.美國今年一年的財政赤字可是1.8 trillion 啊.

通貨膨脹是聯儲希望看到的. 能不能做到, 那是另外一回事兒. 有不少人認為聯儲沒這個能力. 就目前來看, 所有數據指向信用緊縮(也就是通貨緊縮, 和commodity 價格上漲是兩個概念).

評論者：Speculator

never say never, rewind just a decade to the Clinton years, high grow plus high tax rate resulted in a big surplus, under a democratic president! so it can be done...

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 10:10

搬一篇支持女神的文章，有請如山西樓女神等大蝦的高見。

抵押收回房數量巨大 美房市或再惡化
來源：英國《金融時報》

銀行問題的根源仍然在於磚頭和水泥。隨著失業率不斷攀升，住宅市場的困境出現了新的變化。盡管今年年初當局大麵積叫停抵押收回，並且出台了聲勢浩大的貸款條款修改計劃，2009年上半年美國喪失住房抵押品贖回權案例仍高達150萬起，與預期相符。事實上，隨著6月份連續第四個月逾30萬所房產收到喪失贖回權通知——這種現象是首次出現——美國住宅市場狀況可能正在再度惡化。

　　新一波案例的分布更為分散，這至少表明，居住小區日漸衰敗對房價的傳導作用有所減小。由於喪失抵押品贖回權是由經濟衰退、而非單純的瘋狂貸款所致，這些案例在愛達荷州、猶他州及伊利諾斯州等地正在增多。而對於銀行來說，所有這一切都意味著，更多房產將被歸到其資產負債表上的所謂“其它所持房產 ”(other real-estate owned, 簡稱OREO)項下。跟蹤喪失抵押品贖回權案例的RealtyTrac表示，在所有被收回的房產中，有大約一半重歸銀行所有。就那些進入拍賣程序的房產而言，由於銀行設定的（往往不現實的）底價無法引起買家的興趣，逾五分之四的競拍房產最終留在了銀行名下。

　　成為地產大亨的地方銀行下一步怎麽辦呢？視情況而定。某些地方監管機構在估值方麵給予了銀行更大的靈活性。瑞信(Credit Suisse)稱，OREO虧損額繼去年第四季度大幅飆升後，在今年頭3個月有所下降，是因為一些持有大量OREO資產的銀行在去年年底進行了大規模的資產清算。當時， OREO餘額逐漸占到銀行有形普通股權益的20%，可能迫使監管機構采取了行動。

　　瑞信預計，理論上講，虧損會滯後違約3至4個季度出現，有鑒於此，OREO虧損額將於2011年達到峰值，並在2013年前居高不下。因此，在未來很長一段時間裏，我們將無法回避過去的罪孽。

評論者：Venus... 2009-07-21 15:02

The infamous chart. The red was added by a blogger for US market.

Has anyone heard "sell before it's too late?" at weekend parties? At least I haven't.

評論者：panyca 2009-07-21 15:32

我也在納悶。據說經濟學家共識是緩慢複蘇今年會開始。這失業率高企的複蘇是咋回事呢？這金融係統的問題，bail-out一下就解決了？有什麽製度化的東東保證CDO之類的人為泡沫不再發生？在金融界幹活的給說說？製造業的結構性轉型就算完了？陣痛過去了？

我倒是又撈了一個白菜房。我覺得低收入人群mobility低，接下來10年內買房不易，可能會長期租房。這房子的P/R（monthly rent at 80%market)遠低於50，哪怕空置率算50%，都不會虧。就是空它10年也陪得起，所以買了。轉手交給物業公司管, 免得煩心。

正在猶豫的是一快完工的新房，2900尺，1/3原價。不知道誰會花$2000租房，而不乘機買房？新近default過的專業人士？如山　等行家給說說？

 

評論者：Tom007 2009-07-21 15:43

你說的對，這隻是可能性之一，而且你說的更準確些，是demand 下降。不過，少數選擇浮動利率（未轉成固定利率）的人還貸會困難了。另外，加國固定利率最長是10年（利率較高），最普遍的是5年固定（利率較低），不能象你們那樣能鎖住利率30年。

那麽另一種可能性呢？在高通漲時代，恐怕　Cash is not king　了吧？多數人很自然地會想到，買房買地保值。

前一種可能性使使房價往下走，後一種可能性使使房價往上走。如果兩種可能性都存在，那麽在高通漲時代，“房價會大漲”就不一定了。哪種可能性更大呢？還有其它可能嗎？

評論者：panyca 2009-07-21 15:50

That's why I am trying to make my equity half in stock market, half in real estate, and half in US$, half in CA$, and a minor 5% in RMB...

Any other ways to diversify risk exposure? I take comfort in the thought that the worse scenario is we still have another 20% to go on the down side?

評論者：Tom007

不明白你的這個結論“又一個證據房市還沒到底”，Why?

"很多人都在想去美國買房子" --> "又一個證據房市還沒到底"? Can you please educate me?

評論者：panyca

The bottom is here when everybody is too scared to buy...

When "很多人都在想去美國買房子", greed is not completely trumped by fear...

However, few can grab the bottom at the exact moment. As long as the downside is less than upside, I will edge in gradually.

評論者：Venus...

準確地說, 陣痛還沒開始. 前麵是false labor

美國的貿易赤字照目前的速度減下去, 全球的貿易結構就得大洗牌. 金融係統的原有的結構性危機仍然沒變, (暫不提toxic assets still on the balance sheets hidden by mark to fantasy accounting).

29 年之後, 證券法經過幾年的醞釀才出台. 金融改革會是今後五到十年的重點.

 

評論者：Tom007

panyca 寫道:
The bottom is here when everybody is too scared to buy...
——[True, and I agree. And even in this scenario when everybody is too scared to buy, there are always smart people like 如山, 潘教, and so many CNDers, keep buying, and even people from Canada "很多人都在想去美國買房子" --- at the bottom]

When "很多人都在想去美國買房子", greed is not completely trumped by fear...
——[But "很多人都在想去美國買房子" is not necessarily the opposite of everybody is too scared to buy, right? So how this can prove that "又一個證據房市還沒到底" ?]

評論者：Venus...

由 Tom007 於 09-07-21 15:43

少數選擇浮動利率（未轉成固定利率）的人還貸會困難了。
>> 這類人咎由自取.

另外，加國固定利率最長是10年（利率較高），最普遍的是5年固定（利率較低），不能象你們那樣能鎖住利率30年。
>> 你們那裏允許零首付嗎? 其實這種做法保護了普通購房者和銀行雙方, 防止投機過熱.


那麽另一種可能性呢？在高通漲時代，恐怕　Cash is not king　了吧？多數人很自然地會想到，買房買地保值。
>> 我非常擔心的另一件事是房產稅上調. 當房產稅過重的時候, 擁有房產就象燙手山芋了.

潘教連續找到這麽便宜的房子, 看來密執根受打擊不小. 當地的失業率很高嗎?

居民房屋的周期比別的商品市場長. 進入低穀後不會馬上反彈. 我自己的猜想是在失業率下降之前房市不會觸底. 有個調查問卷顯示, 隻有 10% 左右的資不抵債的(underwater)房主會主動選擇棄房, 其他大部分人隻要能撐下去, 還會接著還貸款. 這就是房屋過剩很難在短期內消化的原因. 商品房表現出來的行為就大不一樣了. 雖然商品房剛剛開始下跌, 跌的勢頭已經遠超居民房.

評論者：panyca

Oh, yeah, Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country. However, I do believe Michigan is near the bottom, if not at the bottom. It was in one-state recession way before the country due to the decline of auto- and manufacturing sectors. I don't think the housing market here will recover in the next year or two. I am bracing for a long long winter. My horizon is 10 year +.

Maybe you should check MIchigan out?

評論者：Venus...

散布點悲觀論調. 剛剛看到的文章, 轉貼一下. 前麵曾經提到過, 不過大家那時都覺得不可能. 希望潘教不在Genesee County.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive


The government looking at expanding a pioneering scheme in Flint, one of the poorest US cities, which involves razing entire districts and returning the land to nature.

Local politicians believe the city must contract by as much as 40 per cent, concentrating the dwindling population and local services into a more viable area.

The radical experiment is the brainchild of Dan Kildee, treasurer of Genesee County, which includes Flint.

Having outlined his strategy to Barack Obama during the election campaign, Mr Kildee has now been approached by the US government and a group of charities who want him to apply what he has learnt to the rest of the country.

Mr Kildee said he will concentrate on 50 cities, identified in a recent study by the Brookings Institution, an influential Washington think-tank, as potentially needing to shrink substantially to cope with their declining fortunes.

Most are former industrial cities in the "rust belt" of America's Mid-West and North East. They include Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Memphis.

In Detroit, shattered by the woes of the US car industry, there are already plans to split it into a collection of small urban centres separated from each other by countryside.

"The real question is not whether these cities shrink – we're all shrinking – but whether we let it happen in a destructive or sustainable way," said Mr Kildee. "Decline is a fact of life in Flint. Resisting it is like resisting gravity."

評論者：Tom007

Venus,

How about the housing market? Is it improving? You still think the housing price in the U.S. has two years to decline?


Today's/Yesterday's news:

Home Resales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month, spurred by tax incentives, lower borrowing costs and foreclosure-driven declines in prices.

Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Median prices fell 15 percent.

The gain in sales confirms Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s remarks this week that the worst housing slump in eight decades appears to be moderating.
......
BTW, as you may already know, the Canadian Central Bank has declared that Canadian economy will end the recession this quarter and will increase by 3% next year.

 

評論者：Venus...

Tom,

Really there isn’t anything changed. The pace of decline is slowing, it does not mean the price has stopped declining, or the price will bounce up sharply, or resume 4% annual appreciation rate.

Soon in NAR news you will see the median price rising. It will not be caused by the bounce in housing market, but the changes in ‘mixes’ of the houses sold. Right now 30-40% sales are distressed sales, and those distressed sales mainly are low end houses. Later on this year the distressed sales will be higher range houses, mid-to-high level houses, they will pull up the mean price. You might even continue to see the number improvement, since distressed sales will taper off two years later and ‘normal sales’ will dominate. But be forewarned, these ‘normal sales’ will be nowhere near the level of 2006.

I don’t know much about Canada. Good for you. US is a different story. Other than Obama’s economic advisor, is there anyone predicting 3% of GDP for US next year?

評論者：Tom007

Thanks for your explanation, Venus. It makes good sense.

However, when things do happen as you described here, they will likely be interpreted as improving and encouraging, and will attract more people into buying, perhaps at higher prices than what Rushan, panca, etc, are paying now.

PurestCrystalClear 2009-07-24 13:24

The housing market is improving. My sister finally sold her house after over 1 year on the market. But the selling price is 26% lower than what she paid 4 years ago.

評論者：Venus...

Can you share a bit more details on house price range and roughly which region? Thanks a lot,

PurestCrystalClear

Midwest. Bought 225K 4 years ago, sold 165K. She changed job over a year ago, and the house has been vacant since. She just thought to rent the house two weeks ago.

Can you share a bit more details on house price range and roughly which region? Thanks a lot,

評論者：Venus...

Tom,

Really there isn’t anything changed. The pace of decline is slowing, it does not mean the price has stopped declining, or the price will bounce up sharply, or resume 4% annual appreciation rate.

Soon in NAR news you will see the median price rising. It will not be caused by the bounce in housing market, but the changes in ‘mixes’ of the houses sold. Right now 30-40% sales are distressed sales, and those distressed sales mainly are low end houses. Later on this year the distressed sales will be higher range houses, mid-to-high level houses, they will pull up the mean price. You might even continue to see the number improvement, since distressed sales will taper off two years later and ‘normal sales’ will dominate. But be forewarned, these ‘normal sales’ will be nowhere near the level of 2006.

I don’t know much about Canada. Good for you. US is a different story. Other than Obama’s economic advisor, is there anyone predicting 3% of GDP for US next year?

Thanks for your explanation, Venus. It makes good sense.

Tom007

However, when things do happen as you described here, they will likely be interpreted as improving and encouraging, and will attract more people into buying, perhaps at higher prices than what Rushan, panca, etc, are paying now.

 

Putongren 2009-07-24 19:04

Those statistics have to always be viewed with a grain of salt. What improvement should those who play in the real estate market use? I'd say none of those statistics. You have to think about this, if I buy a house today, can I sell it for a better price without major improvement? If the answer is year, then you have a price appreciation. The only statistics supposed to answer this question is the Case/Scheiling (spelling?) index. But the calculation of that index is a black box. We don't how they derive their numbers. It has to be derived because you really don't have many houses sold twice in two years, let alone in two months.

————————————————————————————————————

如山回應

謝謝女神、007高人、潘教、思索者、北京7750、PurestCrystalClear 、putongren等人非常有意義的討論和信息。如山受益匪淺。希望陸續看到討論。作為回報，本人將於3天內貼出一篇關於房地產趨勢與對策的一點看法。

[intle]

CND是哪裏？搜遍了也沒找到，，煩請撥冗賜教。

[light]

回複如山的評論:我們大家都要謝你分享自己的經驗。

[如山]

回複light的評論:
沒有。謝謝你的光臨。

[light]

你有沒有投資過TAX LIEN 或TAX DEED ？

[GG2006]

回複如山的評論:

Tks a lot, and it makes sense.

[如山]

回複GG2006的評論:

我同意你的意見。我從來不paid market price，even in a hot market(expcept I got a wrong judgement).但是，什麽價格才能拿到要看市場。另外，這種銀行公開拍賣的常常會到市場價（跟我故事裏的Forecluse拍賣完全不同，請注意）。你可以讀我的體會之一所列的各種方法，看看有沒有看參考使用的地方。說到底還是要看你當地的市場和你所花的功夫而定。祝好運！

[GG2006]

細讀您的BLOG很有啟發, 謝謝. I do have a question that I'd need your insight:

I bid twice recently - one on a bank-owned (H1) and one short-sale (H2). It appears that both houses are priced at market level (on the low end though) by list agents, and some minor work would required on both (~$20K max). Detail info is shown below:

1. H1 - list for $625K and closed @ $611K
2. H2 - list for $675K and the current bid is @ ~ $630K

I walked away from both deals due to my low ball bids (~ 100K below) and no intent to pay market value. In H1 case, it appears that the bank may actually make a profit based upon my title search or previous owner load amount. And for H2, the current owner had $675K+ loan thus expecting a sure loss on lenders.

I'd appreciate if you could comment on this type of market situation (I'm in Dallas area), and any suggestion on my next step on bidding this type of houses would be greatly appreciated (not for investment but myself). Tks in advance.