汪翔
隨便想想
Facebook將於今天正式開始，申請股票上市了。很多人將它的市值預估為接近1000億美元，大約是它過去一年銷售額的10倍。
這是一家具有時代風向標意義的公司，它的經營成功和在此之前已經一度做得不錯的兩家公司的敗落，將給企業界一個新的值得深思的案例。後來者居上，在企業經營的曆史上也不是很罕見。創新和經營的成功，是很難等價的兩個概念。創新永遠隻是經營成功的第一步，有時候還不一定就是最關健的一步。經營本身的重要性有時候更值得人們強調。
它的投資者所獲得的巨大財富，也將給未來的投資者帶來不少的啟迪。那位以區區幾千美元的工錢，造就目前高達兩億美元市值的“大傻帽”的故事，和那位當年以區區50萬美元投資，如今得以收獲幾十億美元回報的投資家的故事。值得我們好好想想。
對於很多為了短期利益瞎折騰的聰明人，好好思索一下這些投資者的成功之道，倒是價值頗大。由於自己最近特別忙，沒有時間進行深入細致的分析，隻好借花獻佛了。下麵的兩篇文章很值得一讀。裏麵已經很清楚地分析和講述了相關的內容。
對於投資者，有一點值得注意：如果這家新的“巨人”在未來所麵對的競爭壓力不低於穀歌所麵臨的，而且，擁有通過上市獲得的巨額現金，也很難讓自己在未來幾年以接近100%的速度繼續成長的話，你付出銷售額10倍的價格代價來購買股票，你很可能就已經麵臨很大的投資風險了。公司的價值，最終還是由公司的盈利成長速度和盈利水平決定的，其它的短期狂熱，隻能造就短期的泡沫。
比較一下穀歌的投資價值，還有蘋果公司，估計你會做出更為理智的選擇。
Facebook IPO成致富機器 繪畫工身家2億美元
以下為《紐約時報》網站文章摘要：
製造大量富翁
Facebook於本周三宣布提交IPO申請，計劃募集最多50億美元資金，公司估值高達750億美元到1000億美元。最後，這些股票將製造大量的億萬富翁和百萬富翁。
其中一些富翁眾所周知，例如Facebook聯合創始人兼CEO馬克·紮克伯格，但也有一些新誕生的富翁並不為人所知。現年27歲的紮克伯格持有5.338億股Facebook股票，以1000億美元的估值，或者每股53美元的價格來計算，這些股票價值284億美元。
紮克伯格還對公司擁有絕對的控製權。由於Facebook已經獲得了來自世界上頂級商業大亨的投資，因此紮克伯格仍然能夠做到這一點實屬不簡單。他的持股比例為28.4%，擁有投票權比例高達57%。
Facebook的首位外部投資者是彼得·蒂埃爾（Peter Thiel），這位億萬富翁曾在2004年底向Facebook投資50萬美元，他持有4470萬股Facebook股票，價值超過20億美元。
U2樂隊主唱博諾（Bono）參與創辦的風投公司Elevation Partners在2010年斥資1.2億美元購買了Facebook部分股票，這筆投資可以使該風投公司掩蓋投資Palm和福布斯的失敗。
著名投資人吉姆·布雷耶（Jim Breyer）所在的Accel Partners早在七年前就向Facebook這家創業公司投資，並持有2.014億股股票，該風投公司可以通過這筆投資獲得豐厚的回報。
Facebook首席運營官雪莉·桑德伯格（Sheryl Sandberg）持有190萬股Facebook股票，持股比例約為0.1%。不過根據Facebook的招股說明書，桑德伯格後來又獲得了3810萬股股票，這足以使她成為為數不多的矽穀女性億萬富翁俱樂部的一員。
科技公司造富
科技公司上市帶來的巨額財富一直非常驚人。網景公司1995年上市之後，製造了數十名百萬富翁，包括其創始人馬克·安德森（Marc Andreessen），現在已經成為矽穀著名投資人，持有360萬股Facebook股票，價值將近2億美元。穀歌在2004年啟動IPO並融資16.7億美元之後，數百人加入百萬富翁俱樂部，包括公司文員、按摩師和廚師。
微軟在1986年上市之時，比爾·蓋茨（Bill Gates）持有微軟49.2%的股份。穀歌2004年上市之時，聯合創始人拉裏·佩奇（Larry Page）和謝爾蓋·布林（Sergey Brin）分別持有大約15%的股份。
但Facebook與他們存在兩個區別。第一個區別在於，Facebook的估值極高，創所有互聯網公司估值之最，而且相當於穀歌2004年IPO時公司估值的數倍。這個由紮克伯格8年前在哈佛大學宿舍裏創辦的社交網絡公司市場有望突破750億美元，Facebook股票已經在非上市公司股票交易市場出售，市場估值超過800億美元。
與穀歌IPO不同的是，由於二級股票交易市場的銷售和大量投資者的迫切心情，Facebook相關的大量財富已經兌現。即便Facebook隻達到融資規模的下線，它仍然可以創造有史以來最豐厚的風投回報。
科技投資者、斯坦福經濟政策研究院講師阿萊克斯·高德（Alex Gould）表示：“Facebook能夠為早期投資者帶來天價的回報，它不僅是一個資金製造者，更是一個公司製造者。”
整個圈子的共贏
Facebook IPO帶動了整個圈子的共贏。由俄羅斯億萬富翁尤裏·米爾納（Yuri Milner）領銜的投資公司DST持有Facebook大約7%的股份，DST在2009年和2011年購買了Facebook股票，對Facebook估值從100億美元到500億美元。
根據Facebook的招股說明書，馬克·紮克伯格的父親、一位紐約牙醫獲得了200萬股股票；馬克·紮克伯格的大學室友、同樣從哈佛輟學並參與創辦Facebook的達斯丁·莫斯科維茨（Dustin Moskovitz）持有1.338億股股票。
據兩位前Facebook員工透露，Facebook發展早期，該公司向大約250名員工發放了股票，這其中包括大宗股權發放。2007年，Facebook停止發放期權，轉而限製股票交易。不過2007年以後加盟公司的大量員工仍然持有數百萬股Facebook股票。2009年加盟的Facebook首席財務官大衛·伊伯斯曼（David A. Ebersman）持有超過700萬股未兌換的股票。
也有一些不受Facebook歡迎的持股人，例如泰勒·文克萊沃斯（Tyler Winklevoss）和卡梅隆·文克萊沃斯（Cameron Winklevoss）雙胞胎兄弟，他們也是哈佛大學畢業生，過去曾是紮克伯格的商業夥伴。這對孿生兄弟持有120萬股Facebook股票，這是他們與Facebook和解時獲得的補償。
不為外界熟知的Facebook聯合創始人愛德華多·薩維林（Eduardo Saverin）也曾對Facebook提起訴訟，他獲得的和解補償更多，約為5%的Facebook股份。之後薩維林通過二級股票交易市場出售了部分股票。在Facebook的招股書中，薩維林的名字沒有被提及。
價值連城的股票
大衛·喬伊，這位牆麵繪畫藝術家在2005年應時任Facebook總裁西恩·帕克（Sean Parker）的邀請，為Facebook在加州帕洛艾洛（Palo Alto）的首個公司總部進行牆麵裝飾。作為報酬，帕克向喬伊提供了一個選擇，要麽收下數千美元現金，要麽收下相同價值的股票。雖然當時喬伊認為Facebook的理念“感覺荒謬而且沒有意義”，但還是收下了Facebook股票。
據一位前Facebook員工稱，當時Facebook的很多所謂“顧問”都拿到了0.1%到0.25%的Facebook股份，盡管聽起來微不足道，但如果以Facebook估值1000億美元來計算，這些股票價值連城。據一些Facebook高管和認識喬伊的人透露，喬伊當時獲得的勞動報酬，現在價值約為2億美元。
盡管喬伊曾經生活落魄，並且被卷入法律糾紛，但即便沒有Facebook的這些股份，喬伊也已經過上了富足的生活，雖然不清楚這是否因為他在二級股票交易市場出售了部分Facebook股票。
喬伊已經成為一名成功的藝術家，很多美術館和大型博物館都有他的作品展覽。喬伊拒絕接受關於此文的，他希望保持低調。不過他發表了一部關於藝術的作品，其中就包括當年在Facebook總部牆壁上的繪圖。
Facebook May Be More Expensive Than Google
By Lee Spears and Brian Womack - Feb 2, 2012
Facebook Inc. may command a valuation more than five times higher than Google (GOOG) Inc. as it seeks to raise $5 billion in the world’s largest initial public offering of an Internet company.
The social-networking company, which filed for the IPO yesterday, may be valued at as much as $100 billion in the sale, two people with knowledge of the matter said last week. At that level, the company would trade at 26.9 times 2011 sales, compared with about 5 times for search-engine operator Google, whose market value has jumped eight-fold since its IPO.
“Google was an awesome IPO,” and its success since is the reason Facebook can come out at such a high valuation, said Tim Cunningham, who helps oversee about $75 billion at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “That hope and potential is exactly why it’s potentially a $100 billion deal.”
Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg is asking investors to pay more than double the valuation of Google’s 2004 IPO even as competition from Google+ and Twitter Inc. increases. Menlo Park, California-based Facebook wrested the lead in U.S. online display ads from Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) in 2011, taking a 16.3 percent share, according to researcher EMarketer Inc.
Facebook didn’t disclose the number of shares it plans to sell in its filing yesterday, and the amount it is seeking to raise may change. The company is considering a valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion, said the people, who declined to be identified because the matter is private.
More Advertising
Based on the top end of that range, Facebook would be valued at 100 times its 2011 net income. Fast-growing companies’ price-to-earnings ratios often start high and gradually fall. Google, which at its IPO was valued at 121 times trailing 12- month earnings, now trades at about 20 times.
Sales at Facebook, which became the dominant social- networking site in 2008 by leapfrogging pioneer MySpace Inc., surged 88 percent to $3.71 billion in 2011. Net income in that period jumped 65 percent to $1 billion. Facebook’s revenue may rise to $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion this year, EMarketer estimates show.
The site, which has amassed more than 800 million users, makes money by selling ads to companies that want to reach that growing base. Industry wide, spending in the U.S. online display ad market may surge 20 percent this year, according to EMarketer.
Keep Momentum
To capture those ad dollars, Facebook will have to find ways to continue to engage users. U.S. visitors to Facebook in December spent an average of 7 hours on the service, a 32 percent increase from a year earlier, according to Reston, Virginia-based researcher ComScore. Visitors spent about 4.5 hours on Google’s sites and even less on Yahoo’s.
“The greatest challenge obviously is keeping the advertising momentum because advertising is their key source of revenue,” Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at EMarketer, said of Facebook. While almost 90 percent of 2011 sales probably came from ad revenue, Facebook also is seeking new sources, such as credits that users buy and redeem for goods and services, she said.
Zuckerberg co-founded Facebook in 2004 with his college roommates, creating a site that allowed students to interact via the Web. He later made the service accessible to everyone, intensifying competition with sites such as MySpace and Friendster, founded in the two years before.
MySpace, Friendster
Neither could fend off Facebook, which had a reputation for innovative features like News Feed, which lets people check on friends’ activities in a single place, said Nate Elliott, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in New York. News Corp. (NWS), which bought MySpace in 2005, sold the site last year for less than one-tenth the price it paid. Friendster reinvented itself as a social-gaming platform following its 2009 purchase by Malaysia’s MOL Global Ltd.
Facebook raised $1.5 billion from backers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Digital Sky Technologies, according to a January 2011 statement, an investment that implied a total value of $50 billion for Facebook. The company’s valuation is currently pegged at about $74 billion by SharesPost Inc., which handles trading of closely held companies.
Facebook Versus Groupon
Facebook’s sales indicate the stock would be more than twice as expensive as Groupon Inc., which raised $805 million in an IPO in November 2011, including an over-allotment option. The online coupon site went public at a valuation of $12.8 billion, or about 10 times sales in the 12 months through Sept. 30. The company is trading 7.5 percent higher than its IPO price.
LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD), whose IPO price made it more costly than Salesforce.com Inc., peaked at more than double its offer price in July. The offering valued LinkedIn at $4.25 billion, or 14.5 times trailing 12-month sales.
Google, one of Facebook’s main competitors in Web advertising, raised $1.9 billion in its IPO, including an over- allotment option. Founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page wound up halving the size of the offering after accounting errors and an interview with “Playboy” magazine attracted scrutiny from regulators.
They priced the shares at $85 apiece, giving Google a market value of about $23 billion, or about 10 times sales in the 12 months through June 30, 2004. Today the Mountain View, California-based company is worth more than $180 billion, making it the most valuable Internet company.
Profit Margins
Like Google, Facebook’s stock “has the potential to stay very high,” said Anupam Palit, a senior equity analyst at the New York-based GreenCrest Capital Management LLC.
Facebook may achieve an operating margin of more than 40 percent over the next two to three years, according to Palit. While that puts the company on par with Google, it’s also more than twice as big as Yahoo’s 2012 projection and about 16 times more than Web-services provider AOL Inc. (AOL), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Sustaining growth and its user base may help Facebook avoid the fate of AOL and Yahoo, whose fortunes have dimmed since their 1990s-era IPOs, said Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management LLC.
AOL’s Fate
“The moment you try to hold onto what you have, you end up like AOL and Yahoo,” said Veru, whose Fort Lee, New Jersey- based firm manages $3.4 billion. “The history of the Internet industry is littered with franchise-dominant players that are footnotes.”
Yahoo, once the biggest search engine in the U.S., went public in 1996 at a valuation of more than 200 times annualized 12-month sales, based on the nine-month figure disclosed by Yahoo in its prospectus then. Following the ouster of CEO Carol Bartz in September, the company trades at about 4 times trailing 12-month sales and is exploring options as revenue sinks.
AOL hasn’t fared any better. More than a decade ago the company, once the top U.S. Internet service, attempted to leverage that status by buying Time Warner Inc. (TWX) for $124 billion in stock and debt, then the largest deal in the country’s history.
The AOL-Time Warner combination was ultimately dismantled in 2009 with a spinoff of Internet operations as subscribers fled and ad sales plunged. AOL’s market value is now about $1.8 billion, compared with as much as $165 billion before the Time Warner tie-up.
For Facebook, consistent creativity should help spur sales growth and keep users interested, said Forrester’s Elliott.
“Facebook gives people a reason to come back, more than any other social space that has gone before, more than any other social space that we see online today,” he said. “They’re constantly introducing new features and new ways for people to engage with the site.”
連接：
《臉書文化之美》（QM)
查克伯格？！
除了圈錢還是圈錢。給你1種假象，股市會沖高。你看facebook挑了好時候上市了。
畢竟，這就是時代的特色。
挺有意思的一個故事。
有些新的東西，我們還是需要自己親自體驗一下的，不然的話，就和時代離的太遠。