汪翔
隨便想想
一個多月前，送朋友奔赴香港，擔任卡特彼勒公司駐亞太地區首席經濟學家時，還在為他未來幾年的日子擔心：如果大中華區的經濟就此蕭條，他這位亞太地區的第一號軍師，是不是就會在無形之中多擔當不少的壓力？
今天看來，這一切都是多餘的了。卡特彼勒超乎預期的盈利增長報告，帶給世界的，似乎是完全不同的信息：世界經濟的健康，遠比我們想象的要好得多。
卡特彼勒是一家很大的公司，所生產的產品，又多是供基建和礦山這樣的“大興土木”的工程使用。一般來說，隻有在經濟前景不錯時，人們才敢在這個行當搞大力投資。否則，更多的人會選擇保守經營，好好過冬，先力求自保。
中國地產市場的嚴冬，在我看來，不僅沒有過去，最壞的時刻似乎也還沒有到來。在這樣的背景下，卡特彼勒膽敢以比較樂觀的口吻來預測自己在2012年的盈利成長，看來，這家公司似乎是看到了許多我們看不出的意境來。
那麽，這種意境到底會是什麽呢？這一次，卡特彼勒真的會再一次證明，大家都看走了眼？隻有它自己是明白的？看看下麵這篇文章，或許，你會獲得新的什麽。
Caterpillar 4th-quarter profit jumps 58 percent; shares climb
By John D. Stoll,
(Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc reported a 58 percent rise in quarterly earnings that blew away Wall Street expectations on record sales of construction and mining equipment, and projected strong growth for 2012.
Caterpillar's results cap a record 2011 in terms of revenue and profits, and it posted its biggest yearly growth rate for sales and income since 1947. The company has been a leading name in a U.S. industrial sector that enjoyed a widespread rebound in 2011.
Acquisitions, increased demand for mining equipment, high commodity prices and sales growth in construction machinery and parts supported Caterpillar during the year. Price increases and higher inventories also fueled the performance.
Investors reacted positively to the report, with shares up 3.2 percent at $112.57, about $4 shy of a 52-week high set in May.
Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar said it would continue to
break records in 2012, with profit expected to rise 25 percent to $9.25 a share and revenue projected to increase between 13 percent and 20 percent. The outlook outpaced analyst expectations and is based on a forecast for higher sales for all geographic regions and business segments except marine engines.
"We're expecting 2012 to be another year of good growth," Caterpillar Chief Executive Doug Oberhelman said in a press release. "We have to be prepared for recovery in the developed world beyond 2012 and continued growth in emerging markets."
RECESSION "UNLIKELY"
The company said the U.S. economy will continue to experience slow growth. Meanwhile, China is moderating, and Latin America growth could slow down.
It estimated that the eurozone debt crisis could lead to negative growth in the region during the first two quarters of 2012 but "it is unlikely to trigger a worldwide recession," and sees improvement there by the second half of the year.
The company said tax expenses are the biggest challenge in 2012 due to its geographic sales mix and regulations.
Caterpillar said construction markets in the United States and Europe remain "depressed," contrasting the strong growth taking place in emerging regions. Still, the company sees buyers in developed markets snapping up new machinery in order to replace outdated equipment.
During a conference call, the company said it expects to "finally" see some growth in U.S. construction spending, but it will remain relatively low.
The company is gaining market share in many key regions -- including China -- putting further pressure on the company's production capacity. In some cases, customers are on waiting lists that span several years because of these constraints. Buyers of new large trucks are being quoted delivery times into 2014, for instance.
Meeting demand will also lead to increased costs as the company scrambles to add capacity in key regions, particularly to meet demand for mining equipment.
Caterpillar will invest about $4 billion on capital expenditures in 2012, compared with $2.6 billion in 2011.
Caterpillar said it added 14,000 employees in 2011 in order to meet growing demand, 6,500 of which were added in the United States. The company said it exported nearly $20 billion worth of goods in 2011, representing a third of its total revenue for the year.
Caterpillar spokesman Jim Dugan said the company anticipates adding more employees in 2012 as it opens or expands facilities.
PROFITS, SALES UP
The company posted net income for the fourth quarter of $1.55 billion, or $2.32 per share, compared with $968 million, or $1.47 per share, a year ago. That result was 59 cents above the analysts' average estimate of $1.73 a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Sales rose 35 percent to $17.24 billion, above Wall Street estimates of $16.05 billion.
Caterpillar reported growth in all three of its product sectors -- construction equipment, such as bulldozers; resource equipment needed for activities like mining; and power systems, including engines. The resource equipment segment was the fastest-growing unit in terms of sales, but profit growth in the construction business was more robust.
It also is seeing steady demand for after-market parts needed for equipment already in use.
Increased expenses related to production volume, capacity expansion and incentive compensation added about $450 million worth of costs in the fourth quarter alone. The company also spent money on its Caterpillar Japan restructuring and integrating new business.
連接：
The strength seen by Caterpillar, a bellwether for global spending and credit conditions, could be seen as a much-needed boost to those concerned about consumer confidence and sovereign debt. The company's forecasts have long been seen as one of the more telling indicators of future growth or malaise.
