穀歌650美元，你相信碼？

穀歌650美元，你相信碼？

 

由於和中國政府對壘失敗，穀歌的股票在2010年開年不利。那麽，如果從純粹經營的角度看，你覺得穀歌值得你投資嗎？

對於中國市場的撤出，不管穀歌給出的是什麽理由，從經營的角度看，我都覺得是一種非常愚蠢的選擇。好死不如賴活著，穀歌應該好好體味一下這句話的意思。中國市場對於任何一家搜索引擎公司來說，都是不可以放棄的。放棄意味著自殺。如果有一天中國真的能夠（可能性很大）取代日本成為下一個“日本”，那麽，穀歌再後悔就來不及了。這一放棄，給穀歌帶來的長期經濟損失估計在百億美元以上。

撇開中國市場因素，穀歌的價值到底值幾何？下麵這篇文章說是650美元，我的估計是不止這點。對於今天的投資者來說，特別是那些喜歡科技公司的投資者來說，如果你不持有部分穀歌的股份，可能也會是你今後讓你後悔的一件事情。

我自己持有這家公司的股份，也一直覺得現在的估價比較低廉。如果從五年的時間段來看，你會發現，目前是一個“偉大”的機會的。

在穀歌撤出中國市場之後，雅虎花巨資做廣告，希望接受穀歌撇下的客戶。不少人就此覺得，是投資雅虎的好時候。雅虎作為一家“二流”企業，畢竟還是“二流”。對於這些忠誠的客戶來說，穀歌所做的，也實在是太自私自利了一些。以自己價值觀為主導，而不顧顧客的需要，這種經營行為本身也是可圈可點的。

 

穀歌三年股價變化圖

 

附錄：Google seen posting sharp profit, sales gains

4:28 PM ET 4/8/10 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to report sharp gains in first-quarter profit and sales when it posts results after the market's close next Thursday, as the Internet search giant is seen benefiting from an expanded mix of online advertising and a rebound in spending.

Wall Street analysts expect Google (GOOG) to report earnings excluding items of $6.56 a share for the period ended in March, and $4.9 billion in net revenue, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

That compares to earnings excluding items of $5.16 a share, and $4.1 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.

However, the sales forecast is flat compared to the prior period ended in December, when Google saw $4.95 billion in net revenue.

Like many other companies, Google was compelled by the economic downturn to tighten its belt, cut employees and focus on its core business of search.

Unlike many other companies, Google managed to weather the downturn fairly well, and Wall Street has been anticipating that it will be an early beneficiary of a recovery in spending on online advertising.

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jordan Rohan told clients in a research note that Google should report a "solid" first quarter, thanks in part to the deployment of additional paid advertisements in search results, and to new advertising formats.

New formats recently deployed by Google include images -- a departure from the company's traditional, text-based advertisements.

In addition, Rohan wrote that demand for paid search keywords in the travel and financial industries "has returned to normal seasonal levels" following a decline.

Those industries should help make up for the typical decline in the first quarter of demand for retail-related keywords, which are popular during the holiday season in the prior, fourth quarter.

Of particular interest to analysts and investors will be Google's reported first-quarter rate of "paid clicks," or the number of times Internet users click on the company's sponsored links and produce revenue.

Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter told clients in a research note published Thursday that the prices paid by advertisers for those clicks likely saw a "positive impact," thanks to the economic recovery. "We expect a strong quarter," the analyst wrote.

Schachter has a $650 price target for Google shares.

The shares were trading Thursday afternoon at $567.63 and have fallen roughly 6% in the past three months. During that same period, the Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPQ has risen roughly 5%.

Google's first quarter has been overshadowed by controversy over its operations in China. Google announced in January that had been hit with a cyber-attack originating in China, and as a result would seek to no longer comply with local rules mandating the censorship of search results related to politically-sensitive topics there.

Last month, Google said talks with Chinese authorities about the issue had come to naught, and it began routing visitors to its mainland China site to a Hong Kong-based site that delivers uncensored results.

Thomas Weisel Partners' Rohan told clients that concerns over the withdrawal from China are "overblown," adding that Google's revenue from China did not amount to more than $150 million for all of 2009.

"Monetization in China has always been a challenge for Google," Rohan wrote.