你敢賣空美國國際集團嗎？

你敢賣空美國國際集團嗎？

 

美國國際集團作為曾經的世界第一金融巨頭，作為一個病貓，現在到底值幾個錢？一直是人們猜測的話題。它的價值可能是仁者見仁，智者見智。但是有一點，你可千萬不能給予曆史上的價位來期待未來的價格走向的。

投資股市就是投資公司，價值投資者是這麽說的，我自己也是一個相信價值投資邏輯的投資者。由於寫了幾本關於金融危機的書，同時，也由於在修改關於格林伯格這位美國國際集團（AIG）前老總的傳記，一直就很關注這家曾經的偉大巨人的形象。

由於欠賬太多，債務負擔太重，公司隻好在債權人的逼迫之下，一個個地出賣自己旗下的資產。那麽，在如此大麵積賣出之後，作為一家企業，公司目前的財務狀況又是一個什麽樣子的呢？下麵這篇文章給予的信息，似乎不是很樂觀。

在曆史上，AIG曾經是讓彼得·林奇都羨慕的十年漲十倍的股票。在未來的歲月，什麽時候它會（可以）再一次輕裝上陣，就是人們的猜測了。

需要說明的是：我自己目前不持有這家公司的股票，也沒有任何賣空。這裏的信息給予隻是出於娛樂的考量，投資決策是每位投資者自己的責任。

 

附錄：After shorting subprime, Eisman says short AIG

 4/8/10 | Marketwatch

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- After making millions of dollars betting against subprime mortgages, Steve Eisman of hedge-fund firm FrontPoint Partners is advising investors to short shares of American International Group Inc., according to a recent presentation.

AIG (AIG) owes roughly $111 billion, even after proceeds from sales of "crown jewels" like Alico and AIA, Eisman wrote in the presentation, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch Thursday.

That doesn't include any debt AIG may have to assume from its ILFC aircraft-leasing unit and its AGF consumer-finance business, which have more than $13 billion of debt coming due, he said.

AIG's remaining businesses, which include property- and casualty-insurer Chartis and its domestic life and retirement unit, may be worth about $88 billion, Eisman estimated, while noting there's a lot of uncertainty about this valuation.

That leaves a loss of $23 billion, or $36 a share, for common stock holders of AIG, Eisman calculated.

"AIG has no common shareholder equity remaining on its balance sheet," the hedge-fund manager wrote in the presentation. "It would likely be insolvent if not for government support, in our opinion."

In a better-case scenario, AIG's remaining businesses could be worth $116 billion, Eisman estimated. That would leave equity holders with a gain of roughly $7 billion, or $7 a share, he said, while pointing out that this isn't likely.

Eisman joined FrontPoint in 2004 to head a new financial-services hedge fund at the firm. Morgan Stanley (MS) acquired FrontPoint in October 2006, as the housing market was peaking.

By the end of 2007, Eisman's hedge fund had doubled in size to $1.5 billion after bets against subprime mortgages paid off handsomely. He's featured in a new book called "The Big Short" by business writer Michael Lewis, which chronicles the exploits of several hedge-fund managers who made billions of dollars anticipating the housing meltdown and financial crisis.

AIG shares were trading at $38.97 on Thursday afternoon, down 2% from Wednesday's close.