汪翔
隨便想想
百度到底值多少
在連續兩個季度，盈利報告出台導致股價大跌之後，這一次，那些搏擊風浪的玩水者總算有一個開心大笑的時刻：大大好於預期的盈利結果，讓百度的股價從620美元一躍突破700美元大關。市場占有率也跳升到64%。更何況，百度的老李還說，中國互聯網的搜索，現在已經有75%是在百度完成的。
感謝穀歌的“禮讓”，給了自己騰飛的機會。或許有一天，這個來自中國的醜小鴨，會變身為白天鵝，將自以為不可一世的穀歌，在它的地盤上給打得扒下的。世道變化之快，是人們想都想不到的。穀歌同誌呀，我看，還是少唱高調，多做點在商業經營上理性一點的事情為好。牛氣衝天的公司，那些曾經不可一世的百年老店，快速倒下的例子是再多不過了。
看看百度100倍的市盈率和50倍的動態市盈率，從2009年低位110到現在710的價格變化，在看看牛哄哄的穀歌大哥可憐兮兮的幾乎可以和中國銀行比美的市盈率。雖然標準普給予穀歌五個星的“最強烈推薦”，而隻給予百度兩個星的“賣出”警告，但股市似乎不理這個茬，繼續我行我素。
今年年初在百度420美元時，遵循華爾街專家的建議，賣空百度，投資那時候640美元價碼的穀歌的股民們，現在看著百度710美元的股價和穀歌530美元的低位，看來隻有哭泣的份了。
馬上百度就要一股分十股了，很多投資者就可以在“低位”賣得百度的股票了。這種時候我們要問問：百度到底值多少？這種問題的回答，還主要是要看市場的大勢和人們的心情。按照50倍的動態市盈率，如果百度繼續以50%的盈利成長來高歌猛進，似乎也不是太貴。再說，如果它還真的能夠在“淘寶”的地盤上立住腳，就會又有一片賺錢的天地。不過，那裏的玩家可是國內的“黑道老大”，百度是不可能用“欺負”穀歌這個老外的辦法來獲得好處的。
有意思的是，在公司業績如此優良的情況下，百度的CTO和COO同時辭職不幹，裏麵是不是有我們不知道的風險和問題呢？
更多的關於金融的分析，請參閱我的新浪博客：
http://blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa
附錄：Baidu On A Roll As Google Fades
Credit where credit is due: Baidu's on a roll.
First quarter earnings at China's leading Internet search engine more than doubled from the prior year, surprising analysts who -- despite their bullishness -- expected far less.
Significantly, Baidu's market share is growing fast, reversing a trend of decline in recent quarters. Data from consultants Analysys International shows Baidu's share of Internet search market revenues rose to 64% in the first quarter from a two-year low of 58.4% in the previous three months.
Google's share, meanwhile, dropped to 30.9% from 35.6%, an expected consequence of its threat to withdraw from China. So, despite forecasts that other Chinese Internet firms would rise on Google's fall, the figures show Baidu is so far the only winner. Its chief executive Robin Li boasted Thursday that the Web site now receives over 75% of internet search traffic in China.
This kind of performance is silencing naysayers. Among their worries: that the company had a personnel problem in January, when the chief technology officer and chief operating officer both quit. Those departures haven't been followed by other high profile exits.
Meanwhile Baidu itself had tempered expectations by saying its transition to a new advertising system would slow down sales. But even it proved too cautious: revenue per customer was up 34.1% in the March-quarter, on year.
Longer term, some analysts wonder if Baidu will pay for its failure so far to develop an online consumer-to-consumer site to challenge Taobao, part of the Alibaba empire which has cornered around 80% of this market. But those who doubt Baidu's ability to challenge such a dominant market position must in turn concede the corresponding impregnability of Baidu's search engine market leadership. Aside from Google, none of Baidu's competitors have more than a 1% market share in Chinese Internet search.
So what's the catch? This Chinese Internet stock is priced like an uber-Chinese Internet stock. Up 51% so far this year, Baidu trades at 52 times expected earnings, leaving much room for a decline should the company hit any bumps. When it was accused by Chinese state television of manipulating search results in late 2008, for example, the stock slid to a mere 20 times expected earnings, according to data from Starmine.
Right now, though, the horizon remains refreshingly bump-free. Those hoping to take on Google's mantle as Baidu's main challenger will need to get their skates on.
