買點穀歌吧，可能機會難得

買點穀歌吧，可能機會難得

 

            穀歌撤離中國，是因為害怕在中國投資太多之後被陷得太深，到時候再遭受中國政府的威脅，則進退兩難。再者穀歌按照中國政府的意圖行事，似乎又是一件很掉“麵子”的事。保持自己的經營理念，對於自己的長期而言也是一件很有意義的事情。於是乎，遲走不如早走。至少還給自己留了點餘地，“反攻倒算”的餘地。

麵子和聲譽還在嘛。全世界的網民們也還是可以從穀歌的英文主頁進行搜索的。再說，在中國境外創設一個中文網頁，也不應該是一件難事吧。

倒是那些期望通過穀歌平台來營銷自己的中國國內的小企業，可能真的有些麻煩。百度有能力為這些“網上企業家”們提供同樣的平台嗎？特別是在麵向國際方麵？在中國之外，又到底有多少人用百度來進行搜索呢？

對於微軟和穀歌這樣的企業，不得不大量雇傭中國籍的雇員來為他們服務，同時又擔心有一天，這些人會為了中國的國家利益，來利用自己學到的本領對付這些“前雇主”，甚至是雇主的主——美國。這個難題恐怕很難解決。新的科技環境肯定會催生大量的類似於“錢學森式的中國精英”？如果美國人對這些人真誠相待，這些精英會不會走錢學森那條道路？還真的是一個無法說清楚的事情。可別小看這些成天玩弄010010001二進製的家夥，他們那些東西所具有的威力，在未來不一定就比錢學森搞出來的導彈弱。

有意思的是，在穀歌以種種在中國經營困難的借口/理由撤出中國的時候，微軟卻是站在中國政府一方來聲明遵守中國法律的承諾和信心。實際上，微軟的處境和穀歌的很不同。畢竟，搜索引擎對於微軟還隻是一個小頭，銷售自己的操作係統才是主要的工作。

如果現在這種時刻，美國的IT企業真的向穀歌學習，那麽，中國自己就會及時普及有自己特色的操作係統等各個方麵。那樣一來，美國人再想進入中國可就難了。

現在的中國，已經不可和幾年之前的中國同日而語了，美國人是不是意識到了這一點呢？進入中國市場不得不麵臨的尷尬，將是美國公司不得不麵對的。看來，中美之間還有很多好戲在後頭，很多新的驚喜會讓大家在這個2010年過得更加豐富多彩。

按照下麵這篇文章作者的意思，穀歌撤出中國對穀歌應該是件好事，所以，穀歌的股價應該上升而不是下降。那麽，到底是市場錯了還是穀歌自己計算錯了？長期而言市場是不會大錯的，短期來講就很難說了。

對於我，穀歌價格下跌倒是一個建倉的好機會，但是，什麽時候是底部，可能誰都不會知道。如果你想投資穀歌，請不要以投機的心態。長期而言，按照目前的股價和市盈率看，穀歌還是很值得投資的。

中國市場目前對於穀歌的貢獻是1%，這個1%的損失對於穀歌短期內不應該是致命的。再者，由於穀歌的作用不僅僅是提供搜索引擎，還會給大量的網上經營者提供大量的“車道”，讓他們和國際接軌。這樣一來，中國政府和穀歌對壘時，為了各自的利益，可能就應該相互體諒了。這是一個兩敗俱傷的對壘。

很有意思，有一位來自中國人民大學的教授，在發文“批駁”穀歌的時候，那種口氣很有點代表國家和人民的味道。為什麽現在的中國還有這麽牛氣的人群？也不知道這位到底是怎麽想的。如果還是以這種思維來和世界說話，我覺得，中國的學者似乎也太“陳舊”了一點。

 

附錄：TECH VIEW: Google Is At Risk By Staying, Not Leaving China

3:26 PM ET 1/15/10 | Dow Jones

By John C. Dvorak
The investment community is wrong regarding the dustup between China and Google Inc. (GOOG) over the alleged attack on Google by the Chinese government. The stock should have gone up, not down.
The story we are told in the New York Times and elsewhere is that China Inc. hacked into the Gmail service to get at the email of certain dissidents. Then Google, outraged, said that it was considering quitting China.
Puh-leeze. Let me try to deconstruct the situation based on reports and what little we actually know.
First of all, Google has to be tired of literally working for China by providing a customized search result at the behest of the government. (This requirement is imposed on all the search engines to protect the Chinese people from porn, violent imagery, the Falun Gong and anti-China propaganda.)
Google is gaining market share on China's most popular search engine, Baidu.com, and could probably surpass it within a year or two. But it's nuts for Google to perpetually kowtow to Chinese censorship demands, especially when it is so politically incorrect everywhere else.
But it's still about the money. Google knows that walking the Chinese tightrope to remain in business there is a terrible strategy, because if the company gets dominant market share, it could find itself in a very awkward position.
Google could become dependent on China for a large share of revenue and profit--to the point where China might suddenly tell the search giant to censor anti-China Web sites in the United States and elsewhere. If Google refused, China could pull the plug, sink the stock and do serious damage.
Deciding to leave the country on its own removes the future, more devastating consequence for Google and also allows for an underground methodology to emerge, where Google can be accessed by the Chinese people via proxy servers and other Internet work-arounds.
Google, like others, has noticed that innocuous sites such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube are blocked in China for no good reason. The fact is that Google's days were numbered anyway.
The precursor of this current drama was the sudden departure of Google's China president and head of its research and development there, Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, who was lured from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) in 2005. He curiously left in September last year and is now working his own Chinese start-up. (Lee will conveniently not be caught up in Google's situation, which would have been devastating to his career in China. Slick.)
As for all the hacking supposedly done by the Chinese government, I'm dubious. While I am sure that most, if not all, of the various national intelligence-gathering services are spying on each other, this episode seemed staged.
For one thing, the story itself is not coherent. China was spying on certain dissidents' Gmail, and now we are to understand that it has something to do with a flaw in Microsoft's Internet Explorer. This now looks more like a low-level hack that anyone with a password generator could manage. Exactly who are these dissidents using Gmail anyway?
Then we're told that numerous companies, including Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE), were targeted. Somehow the flaws in the Adobe reader had something to do with this. Can a software-security expert please step forward and walk us through this?
The plot thickens as we hear that the attack is nothing new; various attacks back in July and even earlier are mentioned. This raises the following question regarding the security flaws here and there: Why weren't they fixed then?
I'm sure there are meetings in China right now in some back room, with the conversation going as follows: "We've been doing this for years. What changed? Why now? Who screwed up? I thought they knew already."
At the end of the day, Google did what it had to eventually do--say it was considering bailing out. It just needed an excuse. (Whether any serious breach actually happened remains in question.)
Investors should note that this is a plus, not a negative for the company. Who needs China telling you how to run your business? The old path would have put Google at risk. Now it can continue unfettered.