投資花旗銀行風險何在

投資花旗銀行風險何在

            花旗銀行要還錢。對於納稅人是一件好事。至少和在美國國際集團那裏做遭受的巨額虧損相比，在花旗頭上，納稅人畢竟還是小賺了一筆。這一則是來自已經獲得的利息收入，再則就是可能的股價上漲。 

         金融危機時刻，美國政府向花旗注入了450億美元“救濟款”。其中有250億美元被轉換成花旗34%的股份。這樣算下來，如果在明年政府能夠按照900億美元的花旗市值賣掉這部分，獲得的將是306億美元，盡賺56億美元，也有22%以上的回報，也幾乎是每年10%了。

            花旗是不是已經健壯得可以下床獨立行走？

是不是真的不再需要政府的救助就能夠繼續生存下去？

如果再來一場“不期而遇”的震蕩，花旗會不會就此死掉？

這是人們在談論的問題。

            花旗的帳大家可以去算一算。 

美利堅銀行還錢之後，標準普馬上就將其投資評級提示到最高的五星——強力推薦，和可口可樂，沃爾瑪一個等級。

而同樣樂滋滋的花旗銀行，至今也還是一個三星級，似乎這是一個“禮節性”的級別。花旗的200億美元的增發新股，將極大地稀釋現有股東的權益。

問題是，對於一個生存都很困難的花旗銀行，它又能夠擁有怎樣的選擇呢？

200億美元可能相當於25%左右的新股增發，再加上明年政府要投放市場的政府手裏的34%股份（稀釋前比例），即使機構投資者大量增加持股量，結果會是一個什麽樣子的呢？

現在投資花旗銀行可能是一個機會，同時，風險也很多、很大。

給以4-5年時間，花旗會不會是一個上漲到8美元，也就是上升一倍左右的公司？

我們可以拭目以待。

上升到40美元應該是沒有機會的，除非世界末日已經到來。如果是，那麽，人類又為什麽需要股份呢？或許可能是，既然是末日來臨，留著現金也沒有什麽用，還不如顯示一下自己的慈悲。

【附錄】Citi To Raise At Least $20.5B In Capital To Pay Back TARP

12/14/09，DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

After weeks of wrestling with its regulators and the Treasury Department, Citigroup Inc. (C) succeeded in its argument that it needs to exit the Troubled Asset Relief Program, but the conditions show that regulators continue to be worried about the health of the financial giant.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government plans to sell its 34% stake in the bank within the next year.

Shares fell 3% premarket to $3.83.

Unlike any other banks that have repaid the aid so far, Citi has to replace the $20 billion of TARP funds that remained on its balance sheet entirely with fresh capital. The government and banking regulators demonstrated that, at least for now, they decide the conditions for TARP exit on a case-by-case basis, and are willing to set tough conditions.

Citi, however, will feel liberated. It can demonstrate publicly what is has been building on behind the scenes: A large global bank whose growth and expansion will be largely overseas rather than in the United States.

Citi will sell at least $17 billion in stock, with the potential of up to $2.55 billion more, and sell $3.5 billion of so-called equity units to repurchase the $20 billion in trust preferred securities held by the government.

The $20 billion repayment will result in an approximate $8 billion pre-tax loss for the bank. Citi also will end the $301 billion loss-sharing agreement with the government and cancel $1.8 billion of the $7.1 billion in trust-preferred securities it had originally issued to Washington as consideration for the benefits of the agreement, which will result in a $2.1 billion pre-tax loss.

The U.S. Treasury will concurrently sell up to $5 billion of the common stock it holds in a secondary offering, and the government will sell the remainder of its shares "in an orderly fashion" over the next six months to a year.

"We owe the American taxpayers a debt of gratitude and recognize our obligation to support the economic recovery through lending and assistance to homeowners and other borrowers in need," said Chairman and Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.

Citi said that by Dec. 31, it will have paid or accrued $3.1 billion in dividends and interest to the government on TARP investment.

The bank also said that in January it will issue $1.7 billion of common stock equivalents to employees "in lieu of cash they would have otherwise received."

It wasn't all that long ago that Citi was facing humiliating talk of nationalization and its share price swooned to 97 cents in March from a record $55 in 2006. The unraveling of Citi's shares began as the bank suffered writedowns of more than $30 billion two years ago from risky mortgage bets, forcing the ouster of CEO Chuck Prince.

The government engineered a multi-step bailout, including two cash infusions last year that injected $45 billion into Citi. The government this year agreed to convert $25 billion of TARP preferred shares into common stock, giving the U.S. a one-third stake in the company.

Citigroup also has remodeled itself to help fortify itself against losses. In January, the bank reorganized itself into two separate units - placing retail and investment banking into a revived Citicorp name, and its brokerage and asset management operations into Citi Holdings.