花旗稀釋與機構投資者

花旗稀釋與機構投資者 

機構投資者對花旗銀行興趣缺乏，是因為害怕政府接管。

對於花旗這樣的大的金融公司，一般而言，機構投資者的持股要占到70%的比例。現在的花旗股東中，機構投資者的持股比例為26.65%，遠低於對富國銀行的74%的比例。對摩根大通和高盛的比例則分別為74%和75%左右。

除了一般的機構投資者擁有的26.65%的股份之外，就是政府這個特殊的機構“投資者”擁有的34%的股份了。政府還借給了花旗200億美元，占到花旗880億美元市值（股價$3.8時）的接近四分之一。如果政府再將這部分轉化為普通股，政府就是占股超過一半的大大股東了。

花旗寧願將股票賣給一般投資者，在獲得現金之後還清所借的政府貸款，並且在可能的情況下從政府手裏買回那些股份。

看來，對於花旗而言，還是普通投資者比較好欺負。

從道理上來講，任何人持股都是一樣的。而且，有政府這麽個硬腰板，似乎也不是一件壞事。問題是，美國政府“太認真”，太在乎自己金錢的收益，這才是麻煩所在。如果政府隻是出錢不管事多好，可是，這在美國又不行，因為納稅人不幹，而這些納稅人還有辦法折騰政府。

賣新股就意味著稀釋，對現有股東不利。不賣新股，又得繼續支付大量的股息給美國政府（20億美元一年），而且，機構投資者還會因為擔心花旗被國有化而不願意投資，真的是難辦。

在美國做企業也有難處，特別是在你搞出麻煩來的時候。

明知今日，何必當初。

如果花旗通過發售新股還清政府的貸款，機構投資者會再次產生興趣，將持股增加到70%嗎？如果能夠，那麽，是不是就意味著花旗的股價將會上升呢？如果繼續丟棄，那麽，花旗就會出更大的麻煩了。

花旗到底值幾個銅板？ 

【附錄】Citi's TARP Payback Could Cheer Fearful Institutions

12/10/09，By Matthias Rieker

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The government's expected exit from Citigroup Inc. (C) could trigger the re-entry of institutional investors like mutual and pension funds.

Institutional ownership in Citi is roughly 20%, the bank calculates. That makes Citigroup "one of the least owned banks" by institutional investors such as mutual funds and pension funds, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. analyst Vivek Juneja wrote in a research report. Normally, institutions hold 70% or more of large companies' shares.

David Trone, an analyst with Macquarie Capital, whose firm's customers are institutional investors, says, "A lot of clients I talk to are afraid" of the government ownership.

Should those investors lose their fear--and should index funds, for technical reasons, start buying more Citigroup stock--the shares could rise, offsetting downward pressure of the dilution expected when Citigroup issues some large amount of stock as part of its exit from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Plan investment. Indeed, some hedge funds appear to have positioned themselves long in Citigroup's common stock to benefit.

The U.S. government continues to own $20 billion in Citi trust preferred securities, which the company wants to buy back. The government converted other preferred stock into a 34% stake in Citigroup common stock, which the government is expected to sell to investors.

Citi's stock price has been on a slow descent since it last exceeded $5 in October; it fell below $4 Tuesday. In Thursday trading, the stock was up a penny at $3.87.

As of Sept. 30, big institutional investor Fidelity Management & Research controlled 5.1% of Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and 2.9% of Bank of America Corp (BAC), but only 0.2% of Citi, a stock that used to be a staple of mutual funds. Wellington Management was the seventh largest holder of Wells Fargo & Co., controlling 1.1% of the San Francisco bank's stock, and 1% of Bank of America; it is not among the top 20 investors of Citi, according to FactSet.

Also on Sept. 30, several well-known hedge fund managers owned large chunks of Citigroup stock. John Paulson's Paulson & Co. bought 300 million Citi shares during the third quarter, while David Tepper's Appaloosa Management bought 79.7 million and Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital bought 42.4 million. Both purchases were new positions, according to the filings.

Weighing against these hopes is the likelihood of dilution.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve said any bank that seeks to repay TARP would have to demonstrate that it can raise equity, and non-government guaranteed debt. Investors expect Citi to be required to raise some capital, and at least some in the form of equity. The bank is negotiating with the government and its regulators to determine the amount of capital it needs to raise.

J.P. Morgan's Juneja wrote in his note that a $10 billion common stock raise would be 6% dilutive to current owners, and combined with a sale of a part of the government's stake, "could pressure the stock price initially."

Citi's current stock price reflects some expectations of dilution, but, Trone said, "the market is not discounting a full $20 billion" issue of equity capital.

The positive impact on Citi's stock of a government exit would be even more substantial if the Treasury Department sold its common shares. That's because those shares are not counted as part of the bank's capitalization by indexes such as the Standard & Poor's 500, Trone said. As those shares go from government to private hands, lead index funds would automatically increase their holdings.