大空頭倒下了

牛經滄海

一覺醒來，讀到大空頭倒了。若與當年風光無兩、價值投資執牛耳者朱利安·羅伯遜（Julian H. Robertson, Jr.）相比，今日“大空頭”Michael Burry 的基金體量可謂雲泥之別。

彼時，羅伯遜創立的老虎基金曾是全球規模最大的對衝基金。然而在 2000 年互聯網泡沫的癲狂中，基金遭遇巨額贖回，資產從 220 億美元急速縮水到 60 億美元。羅伯遜最終選擇清盤。而就在他清盤後的一個多月，納斯達克見頂，此後十五年未能重返峰值。無數公司股價跌去九成甚至退市，投資者血本無歸；納斯達克上市公司數量也從五千餘家銳減至三千以下。

當時我正在華爾街扛話，親眼見到羅伯遜部分收藏品在大摩大廳被公開拍賣（詳見《財務自由·人生進階：從零開始》）。我本人也在隨後兩年虧至斷腕，不得不退出參與創立的3G手機ASIC芯片VC，打回“裸泳”原形。

至於 Michael Burry，雖然是高分電影《大空頭》的原型，名氣不小、風格凶悍，但基金規模畢竟有限，無法與當年的“一哥”相提並論。然而，他的高姿態也熊據一個時代。他的清盤，雖不足以代表空頭力量的全麵退卻，卻往往是一種值得警惕的開始。

市場的多與空，如拔河兩端的力量，是同一體的兩麵。極端單邊行情難以持久，一旦一端失衡，遊戲往往提前結束。Michael 不能代表整個空方，卻確有標杆意義，其倒下絕不可輕忽。





滄海一概不作任何投資建議。

[thequeens]

以下是我認識的在花街炒股的trader回應：I think he is very short biased about this current market

He made an amazing short play in 2008 on the subprime mortgage

When some are asked if they are concerned that Michael is short biased on this current market - people tend to say

Yes he's been shorted biased the last number if years and wrong most of the time

I don't disagree with his views and think he is incredibly smart

Perhaps this move frees him to play the markets how he sees it - without having to explain himself or generate a return on a timeframe dictated by others

Today was a bit of a down day in the markets and eventually he will be proven correct

He says of the move, "my estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets"

I don't think he is saying he is going to change his mind - but that he is not fond of managing others money at this point

[markyang]

對於最近兩周的AI shorter如何看

[dong140]

感謝分享。所有的決定權在於自己
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+1

[thequeens]

感謝分享。所有的決定權在於自己。隻想知道你打算跟進嗎？希望回複！

[bia]

他沒倒下，他賭空AI是對的，一兩年後可能卷土從來，來收網