回複：兒醫，好準呀！能透漏一下你的新低的估計嗎？

As the fist one in DQ to declare bear market in firm tone. I still remain my bearish view. The market is not near bottom at all. Technically, the US stock marker is already crashed. We do not see major index crash because such cash is masked by unusual bull performace of oil, basic material, agricutulre etc. Ironically the more "bullish" of these sectors are, the bearish the outlook is. The super bullish of these sectors only have two reasons: speculation or real. If speculation, they will crash some day. If real, economy will get suffered badly due to high price in most fundamental stuff. Both scenerios will yeild bad outcome for months to come.

In bear market, the speed to go down is twice as much as the speed to go up (rebounce). This makes pychological sense. When significant amount of players have bearish concern in mind, price goes up with hesitation. However, when it goes down, everyone wants to the first to jump out of ship. If the market takes X trading days from a sound base price of A to top price B, it will take roughly X/2 (+/- 5% error of margin) trading days to go down from B back to price A.

I do not know what the market will do in the near future. there might be a rebounce. the next 10 trading days are critical to determine the direction of market in next couple of months.

good luck.









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continue to count: 4 more days to reach March low. 2008-06-20 09:03:34

It seems like DOW is already there by another 50 points down!

來源: pediatrician2 於 08-06-11 07:27:34 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]
counting:March low has 9 more trading days to go

來源: pediatrician2 於 08-06-06 10:07:44 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]
12 more days to go before we go back to March low.

來源: pediatrician2 於 08-05-21 11:45:47 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]
major indexes go back to early March low in 25
trading days starting from 20MAY2008.
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來源: pediatrician2 於 08-05-20 11:14:01 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]
跟你們說了,股市瀉起來是很嚇人的. 現在的市場就像一個病情嚴重的高燒病人, 醫生給上了大劑量退燒藥,激素暫時緩解了一下症狀. 問題還在那裏根本都沒有變.

FED倒是TAKE OVER 不少RISK了. 問題總和根本沒有一點變化. 這點SENSE都沒有很難在現在的市場混啊.

我的COMMENT是給熊熊聽得. 牛牛門不要怕. 股市永遠都是向上的,如果給予足夠多的時間.
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TMA這個阿鬥，曾經發誓TMA不跨我去死。 可惜啊，俺的 2008-06-20 05:56:01

PUT早就過期了。還虧了幾千。OPTION 難玩啊。還是SHORT好。
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