交易心理分析 中英對照第二版

TRADING IN THE ZONE
MASTER THE MARKET WITH CONFIDENCE, DISCIPLINE AND A WINNING ATTITUDE
《交易心理分析——用自信、紀律和贏家的態度來掌握市場》
MARK DOUGLAS
馬克•道格拉斯
Foreword by Thorn Hartle
索恩•哈特爾作序
張軼翻譯。2009年7月31日第二版。[e-mail]
本翻譯內容僅供投資者學習用，不可用於任何商業目的，張軼不負任何法律責任。
（張軼注：以上是封麵的文字）
（張軼注：以下是折手的文字）
也許你非常了解市場，也許你知道誰是主要的玩家，你知道何時買入，你知道何時賣出，你還知道哪些股票可能有行情。
但是你對自己的了解程度如何？
即使是最聰明，最機敏，最有目標，基礎牢靠的交易者也會被反麵的思想影響，做出了糟糕的決定，導致交易錯誤。他們沒有能力保持客觀，或者缺乏必要的信心去執行交易。或者是他們被矛盾的心理困擾著，對交易有錯誤的概念，或者是市場在控製他們如何選股。
結果如何？大部分交易者在交易的第一年會把大部分資金虧掉，甚至虧光。
馬克•道格拉斯是交易行為動力公司的總裁，他為華爾街著名的人物或公司做交易教練，過去20年他一直致力於幫助交易者形成自信、紀律和贏家態度以掌握市場。
對於道格拉斯來說，成功的關鍵就是提高交易者的思想狀態。殫思極慮的市場分析或最新的“係統”並不是成功的關鍵。他教交易者們用概率思考問題並采用“贏家的思維”這個核心信念。“進入狀態”的交易者不必知道——也不關心——市場下一步會如何。他們知道自己下一步要怎麽辦，這就是他們和別人的不同之處。
道格拉斯在《交易心理分析》中揭露了交易者不能持續一致賺錢的原因並幫助他們克服根深蒂固的曾經讓他們虧錢的心理習慣。道格拉斯一步一步地揭開市場的神秘之處並教交易者們看透隨機的結果，搞懂風險的真實含義，並輕鬆地采用“不確定性原則”指導所有的股票投機。
《交易心理分析》用新的思維讓你掌握市場的優勢。再結合交易“狀態”這個有力的杠杆獲得前所未有的利潤。
關於作者：
（張軼注：此處略去了作者的照片）
馬克•道格拉斯是紐約金融學院出版的《有紀律的交易者——形成贏家態度》的作者。他是一位活躍的交易者，也是交易行為動力公司的總裁，這家公司為經紀公司、銀行、基金經理以及很多專業機構提供交易心理方麵的研討會和培訓。他經常到歐洲和遠東的道瓊斯研討會以及美國的各種投資會議上發表演講。目前他居住在亞利桑納州的斯科茨代爾市，你去通過markdouglas.com網站找到他。
索恩•哈特爾是華爾街奇才公司的副總裁，這家公司為交易者出版專業級的學習課程；他還是echarts.com網站的編輯，這家網站為喜歡技術分析的交易者和投資者提供學習內容；他曾經有9年是《股票和商品技術分析》的編輯。
（張軼注：以上是折手的文字）
（張軼注：以下是封底的文字）
“《交易心理分析》很暢銷。它強調了要想成為有競爭力的持續一致的交易者就必須擁有正確的心理態度。本書一開始解釋了為何要定義問題，最後表明要想在心理層麵實現自信的交易必須做什麽，我毫無保留地推薦次書。”
羅伯特•克勞茲，總裁
斐波那契交易者公司
“你的朋友是否曾經給過你這樣的禮物，禮物表麵上看起來普普通通，但是當你仔細看時，卻發現它有極大的價值？我收到了這樣的禮物，那就是《交易心理分析》。我強烈推薦每個人都把這本書當作禮物送給自己。”
韋爾斯•韋爾德，總裁
《趨勢研究》
“要想成為成功的交易者，交易的心理部分恐怕是最重要的因素。馬克•道格拉斯是這方麵最優秀的老師。”
約翰•希爾，總裁
《期貨真相》
“當我閱讀道格拉斯的《交易心理分析》時，我忍不住對自己說‘哇——他說到點子上了！’因為馬克是最早的思考者，他在書中講到了無價的真知灼見，你在其它地方是找不到這些知識的。我應該說馬克才是最早的深度思考者。”
艾迪•關，總編
Tradingmarkets.com
“馬克道格拉斯擁有獨特的能力，他的作品非常明確，他的思想能輕鬆地應用到交易上，也可以應用到人際關係方麵等等。長期以來，市場一直在提供無窮的機會。當那些交易機會到來時擁有正確的思維是非常關鍵的。這本書和《市場奇才》中描述的成功交易者的故事不同。這本書談的是你，談的是你的問題，談的是你如何擁有正確的思維以成為持續一致的成功交易者。建議購買這本書並把這本書一直帶在身邊，直到本書中講的內容溶於你的性格為止。”
喬•科威爾，總裁
巴台農神殿期貨管理公司
“《交易心理分析》目前是馬克最好的著作。任何交易者的桌麵上都應該有兩本書，這是其中一本。”
吉姆•特溫迪曼，首席交易員
CQG公司
（張軼注：以上是封底的文字）
NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE
紐約金融學院
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
議會圖書館出版物分類數據
Douglas, Mark (Mark J.)
馬克•道格拉斯
Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude / by Mark Douglas, p. cm.
《交易心理分析用自信、紀律和贏家的態度來掌握市場》/作者：馬克•道格拉斯
ISBN 0-7352-0144-7 (cloth)
國際標準圖書編號 0-7352-0144-7（布封麵）
1. Stocks. 2. Speculation. I. Title.
本書類別：1.股票。 2.投機。
HG6041 .D59 2001
332.64 - dc21 00 045251
© 2000 by Prentice Hall
普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司2000年版權
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.
如果沒有出版社的書麵許可，本書任何部分都不可以用任何形式複製。
Printed in the United States of America
印刷地：美國
10 9876 5 4321
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
本出版物的設計完全按照作者的主題展開。本書的銷售不代表出版社會提供任何法律、財務或其它專業服務。如果你需要法律建議或專家服務，請聯係有實力的專業人士。
… From the Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations.
……以上來自美國條形碼委員會和美國出版社聯合委員會的聯合宣言。
ATTENTION: CORPORATIONS AND SCHOOLS
注意：公司和學校
Prentice Hall books are available at quantity discounts with bulk purchase for educational, business, or sales promotional use. For information, please write to: Prentice Hall, Special Sales, 240 Frisch Court, Paramus, NJ 07652. Please supply: title of book, ISBN, quantity, how the book will be used, date needed.
如果是教育機構，公司或促銷時大量采購，可以得到普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司的打折價。需要信息，請寫到：郵編07652，新澤西州，帕拉莫斯，弗裏希院240號，促銷部，普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司。請提供：書名，ISBN號，書的作用，需要的日期。
NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE
紐約金融學院
An Imprint of Prentice Hall Press
普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司印刷
Paramus, NJ 07652
http://www.phdirect.com
NYIF and NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE are trademarks of Executive Tax Reports, Inc. used under license by Prentice Hall Direct, Inc.
紐約金融學院是普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司注冊的納稅公司的注冊商標。
DEDICATION
獻詞
This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a trading coach. Each of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confident, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.
本書獻給過去18年來我作為交易教練時所認識的所有交易者，我和他們在一起很快樂。你們中的每一個人用自己獨特的方式為本書提供見解和指導，引導那些選擇用自信、紀律和持續一致思想交易的人們。
TABLE OF CONTENTS
目錄
FOREWORD 8
序言 8
PREFACE 10
引子 10
ATTITUDE SURVEY 13
態度調查表 13
CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS? 19
第01 章 成功之路：基本麵、技術麵或思維分析麵？ 19
IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 19
先談：基本麵分析 19
THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 21
再談技術分析 21
THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS 23
再談心理分析 23
CHAPTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING 37
第02章 交易的誘惑（和危險） 37
THE ATTRACTION 37
交易的吸引力 37
THE DANGERS 41
交易的危險之處 41
THE SAFEGUARDS 47
交易的安全措施 47
PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules 49
問題：不願意製定原則 49
PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility 51
問題：不負責任 51
PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards 53
問題：對隨機回報感到上癮 53
PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control 55
問題：外部控製和內部控製 55
CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY 56
第03章 自己承擔責任 56
SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT 57
塑造你的心理環境 57
REACTING TO LOSS 62
對虧損的反應 62
WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS 76
贏家，輸家，暴發戶和虧損者 76
CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND 84
第04章 持續一致性：一種思想狀態 84
THINKING ABOUT TRADING 85
思考交易 85
REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK 89
完全明白風險 89
ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT 93
讓你的心理環境保持一致 93
CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION 97
第05章 認知的動力 97
DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE 99
為你的心理軟件找錯 99
PERCEPTION AND LEARNING 103
認知和學習 103
PERCEPTION AND RISK 110
認知和風險 110
THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION 110
聯想的力量 110
CHAPTER 6 THE MARKET’S PERSPECTIVE 119
第06章 市場的角度 119
THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE 120
“不確定”原則 120
MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS ) 126
市場最基本的特征（它幾乎可以用任何組合方式來表達自己） 126
CHAPTER 7 THE TRADER’S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES 134
第07章 交易者的優勢：用概率思考 134
PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS 135
概率的似非而是：隨機的結果，持續一致的收入 135
TRADING IN THE MOMENT 141
有機會就交易 141
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS 149
管理期望 149
ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK 157
消滅情緒風險 157
CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS 162
第08章 和你的信念一起工作 162
DEFINING THE PROBLEM 162
給問題下定義 162
DEFINING THE TERMS 166
對幾個術語下定義 166
HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS 168
這些基本事實和技術如何聯係起來 168
MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE” 173
逐漸進入“這個狀態” 173
CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS 174
第09章 信念的本質 174
THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF 176
信念的來源 176
BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES 180
信念和它們對我們生活的影響 180
BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH 186
信念和事實 186
CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING 189
第10章 信念對交易的影響 189
THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF 191
信念的基本特點 191
SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING 208
自我評估和交易 208
CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER 211
第11章 像交易者一樣思考 211
THE MECHANICAL STAGE 213
機械交易階段 213
THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE 220
自律的作用 220
CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY 227
創造一個相信持續一致性的信念 227
EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO 232
練習：向賭場學習利用優勢交易 232
A FINAL NOTE 246
最後的提醒 246
ATTITUDE SURVEY 246
態度調查 246

FOREWORD
序言
The great bull market in stocks has led to an equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works. Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really sets him or her apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.
大牛市導致出版社出了很多書，這些書的主題都是如何通過交易賺錢。書中有很多思維，有些很好，有些則不行，有些是原創的，有些隻是把以前的作品再重新包裝一下而已。偶爾有一些作者會脫穎而出，寫出特殊的作品，其中一個這樣的作者就是馬克•道格拉斯。
Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thought and research - the work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.
馬克•道格拉斯在《交易心理分析》一書中展示了多年的思考和研究成果——這幾乎是他一生的心血——對於我們把交易當作職業的人來說，他給了我們一塊寶石。
Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the challenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To the novice, the only challenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers’ advice, and other ways to justify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to develop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, trading should be easy, right? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.
我們在交易時會遇到挑戰，《交易心理分析》則對這些挑戰提供了深刻的見解。對於新手來說，唯一的挑戰似乎就是找到賺錢的方法。一旦新手明白了消息、經紀公司的建議和其它買賣方法都不能持續一致贏利時，他發現要麽自己開發一個可靠的交易係統，要麽去買一個。完成了這個任務，交易就簡單了，對不？你所要做的就是遵守原則，這樣錢就來了。
At this point, if not before, novices discover that trading can turn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which is why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform a simple buy and hold investment scenario.
如果新手們以前沒有經曆過的話，那麽現在他們就會發現自己的交易進入了前所未有的艱難階段。統計的結果表明，95%的期貨交易者會在第一年把錢虧光，而新手就要經曆這樣的事。股票交易者通常也會體驗同樣的結果，這就是為什麽專家說大部分股票交易者的業績還不如買入並持有的投資策略。
So, why do people, the majority of whom are extremely successful in other occupations, fail so miserably as traders? Are successful traders born and not made? Mark Douglas says no. What’s necessary, he says, is that the individual acquire the trader’s mindset. It sounds easy, but the fact is, this mindset is very foreign when compared with the way our life experiences teach us to think about the world.
那麽，為什麽大部分人在做其它職業時超級成功，做交易時就輸的這麽慘呢？成功的交易者是天生的嗎？馬克•道格拉斯說不是的，他說每個人必須有交易者的思維才行。這聽起來很簡單，但事實上，交易者的思維和生活中我們看待世界的方法完全不同。
That 95-percent failure rate makes sense when you consider how most of us experience life, using skills learned as we grow. When it comes to trading, however, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers, and create relationships with other people, the skills we are taught that should carry us through life, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders, we find out, must learn to think in terms of probabilities and to surrender all of the skills we have acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of our lives. In Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas teaches us how. He has put together a very valuable book. His sources are his own personal experiences as a trader, a traders coach in Chicago, author, and lecturer in his field of trading psychology.
當你想想大部分人是如何經曆生活的，如何使用成長中學到的技術的，你就明白95%的失敗率是合理的。我們在學校努力得高分，在職業生涯中往上爬，和別人建立友好關係，這些都是我們在成長中學習的技術技巧，然而對於交易來說，這些技術技巧都是不合適的。我們發現交易者必須學習概率，並放棄我們在生活的方方麵麵學到的技術技巧。馬克•道格拉斯會在《交易心理分析》中告訴我們如何做到這點，他把這些認知溶於了這本很有價值的書。他自己是交易者、芝加哥的交易教練、作家、交易心理老師，這些經驗是本書的源泉。
My recommendation? Enjoy Douglas’s Trading in the Zone and, in doing so, develop a trader’s mindset.
我有什麽推薦？我建議你閱讀馬克•道格拉斯的《交易心理分析》並形成交易者的思維。
Thorn Hartle
索恩•哈特爾

PREFACE
引子
The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful? To me, the determining factor is psychological - the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.
每個交易者的目標都是穩定賺錢，但是隻有極少數的交易者做到了持續一致地賺錢。他們是如何實現持續一致地賺錢的？對我來說，決定因素是心理上的——持續一致的贏家和別人想的不一樣。
I started trading in 1978. At the time, I was managing a commercial casualty insurance agency in the suburbs of Detroit, Michigan. I had a very successful career and thought I could easily transfer that success into trading. Unfortunately, I found that was not the case. By 1981, I was thoroughly disgusted with my inability to trade effectively while holding another job, so I moved to Chicago and got a job as a broker with Merrill Lynch at the Chicago Board of Trade. How did I do? Well, within nine months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant life style, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.
我1978年開始交易，當時我在密歇根州底特律市城郊管理一個商業的傷殘保險分公司。我的職業生涯非常成功，我想我可以把我的成功移植到交易中。很不幸，我失敗了。到了1981年，我對自己一方麵要工作，一方麵又交易不順而徹底苦惱。於是我搬到芝加哥，在芝加哥交易所美林證券經紀公司找了一份工作，做經紀人。我做的如何？嗯，搬到芝加哥9個月後，我幾乎失去了一切。我的生活作風比較奢侈，這本來就要求我作為交易者要多賺錢才行，可惜我的交易也不行，最終導致我幾乎一無所有。
From these early experiences as a trader, I learned an enormous amount about myself, and about the role of psychology in trading. As a result, in 1982, I started working on my first book, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes. When I began this project I had no concept of how difficult it was to write a book or explain something that I understood for myself in a manner and form that would be useful to other people. I thought it was going to take me between six and nine months to get the job done. It took seven and a half years and was finally published by Prentice Hall in 1990.
通過早期的交易經曆，我對自己和交易心理扮演的角色有了很多了解。於是，我在1982年開始寫我的第一本書《有紀律的交易者——形成贏家態度》。當我開始寫書時，我才知道把自己的思想寫成對別人有用的東西是多麽地難。我本以為6到9個月就可以完成此書，結果我寫了7年半，於1990年由普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司出版。
In 1983, I left Merrill Lynch to start a consulting firm, Trading Behavior Dynamics, where I presently develop and conduct seminars on trading psychology and act in the capacity of what is commonly referred to as a trading coach. I’ve done countless presentations for trading companies, clearing firms, brokerage houses, banks, and investment conferences all over the world. I’ve worked at a personal level, one on one, with virtually every type of trader in the business, including some of the biggest floor traders, hedgers, option specialists, and CTAs, as well as neophytes.
我在1983年離開了美林公司並創建了一個叫“交易行為動力”的谘詢公司，我設計並主持研討會，主要是講交易心理方麵的內容，我當時扮演的角色就是交易教練。我無數次地為全世界的交易公司、清算公司、經紀公司、銀行、投資會議做演講。我采用一對一的方式幾乎和每種類型的交易者都接觸過，這些交易者包括最大的場內交易者、避險者、期權專家、商品交易顧問和新手。
As of this writing, I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the proper principles of success. What I’ve discovered is that, at the most fundamental level, there is a problem with the way we think. There is something inherent in the way our minds work that doesn’t fit very well with the characteristics shown by the markets.
當我寫到這裏時，我已經用了17年的時間剖析交易心理，所以我可以形成有效的方法把適當的成功原則傳授給別人。我發現，從最基本的方麵說，我們的思維方式有問題。我們天生的思維模式和市場特點是不搭配的。
Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.
對自己的交易有信心，毫不猶豫地去做應該做的事的交易者會成功。他們永遠不害怕市場飄忽不定的行為。他們學習聚焦於能幫助發現賺錢機會的信息，而不是聚焦於增加他們恐懼感的信息。
While this may sound complicated, it all boils down to learning to believe that: (1) you don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; (2) anything can happen; and (3) every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn’t. In any case, you wait for the next edge to appear and go through the process again and again. With this approach you will learn in a methodical, non-random fashion what works and what doesn’t. And, just as important, you will build a sense of self-trust so that you won’t damage yourself in an environment that has the unlimited qualities the markets have.
也許這聽起來有點複雜，總而言之就是你要學習並相信：（1）你不必知道下一步會如何也能賺錢；（2）任何事都會發生；（3）任意時刻都是獨特的，這意味著每個優勢，每個結果都是獨特的經曆。交易不是成功就是失敗。無論如何，你隻要等待優勢的到來就行了，然後一次又一次地重複這個過程。用這種方法，你就會通過有條理的，而不是隨機的方式知道了什麽有用，什麽沒用。還有重要的一點，你要自己建立信心，以防止市場無數的特點毀了你。
Most traders don’t believe that their trading problems are the result of the way they think about trading or, more specifically, how they are thinking while they are trading. In my first book, The Disciplined Trader, I identified the problems confronting the trader from a mental perspective and then built a philosophical framework for understanding the nature of these problems and why they exist. I had five major objectives in mind in writing Trading in the Zone:
大部分交易者都不相信他們的交易問題來自他們看待交易的思維，更具體地說是他們在交易時的思維有問題。在我的第一本書《有紀律的交易者》中，我從心理角度來確定交易者的問題，用哲學的框架來解釋這些問題的自然性，以及問題存在的原因。我在寫《交易心理分析》時有5個主要目標：
 To prove to the trader that more or better market analysis is not the solution to his trading difficulties or lack of consistent results.
 向交易者證明更多或更好的市場分析無法解決交易困難，也不能產生持續一致的收益。
 To convince the trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.
 讓交易者相信隻有他的態度和“思想狀態”才能決定他的收益。
 To provide the trader with the specific beliefs and attitudes that are necessary to build a winner’s mindset, which means learning how to think in probabilities.
 向交易者提供明確的信念和態度，這些是構成贏家心態所必須的信念和態度，這意味著如何用概率思考。
 To address the many conflicts, contradictions, and paradoxes in thinking that cause the typical trader to assume that he already does think in probabilities, when he really doesn’t.
 說明很多衝突的、矛盾的、似是而非的想法，這些想法讓交易者以為他在用概率思考，其實他並沒有用概率思考。
 To take the trader through a process that integrates this thinking strategy into his mental system at a functional level.
 帶領交易者走過一個過程，這個過程能把思考策略和心理係統結合起來，且具有可操作性。
(Note: Until recently, most traders were men, but I recognize that more and more women are joining the ranks. In an effort to avoid confusion and awkward phrasing, I have consistently used the pronoun “he” throughout this book in describing traders. This certainly does not reflect any bias on my part.)
（請注意：目前大部分交易者是男性，但我注意到越來越多的女性也在交易。為了避免混亂和表達的不方便，我在本書中一直用“他”來描述交易者。這肯定不代表我有偏見。）
Trading in the Zone presents a serious psychological approach to becoming a consistent winner in your trading. I do not offer a trading system; I am more interested in showing you how to think in the way necessary to become a profitable trader. I assume that you already have your own system, your own edge. You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades. This book is designed to give you the insight and understanding you need about yourself and the nature of trading, so that actually doing it becomes as easy, simple, and stressfree as when you’re just watching the market and thinking about doing it.
《交易心理分析》闡述了一種嚴肅認真的心理方法，讓你成為持續一致的交易贏家。我不會提供交易係統，我更大的興趣是告訴你如何思考，以成為贏利的交易者。我相信你已經有了自己的係統，有了自己的優勢，你必須學著去相信你的優勢。優勢意味著出現某種結果的概率比出現其它結果的概率高（張軼：本書中的“優勢”也有好的交易方法的意思，請讀者特別注意）。你越是有信心，你就越能輕鬆地執行你的交易。本書的目的是讓你深刻了解你自己以及交易的本質，如此一來，當你看著市場並思考交易時，你就會感到輕鬆、簡單、沒有壓力。
In order to determine how well you “think like a trader,” take the following Attitude Survey. There are no right or wrong answers. Your answers are an indication of how consistent your current mental framework is with the way you need to think in order to get the most out of your trading.
為了確定你是否“像交易者一樣思考，”請回答下麵態度調查表的問題。這裏沒有正確答案或錯誤答案。你的答案表明了你目前的心理結構和盡量多地利用交易賺錢想法的一致性如何。
MARK DOUGLAS
馬克•道格拉斯
ATTITUDE SURVEY
態度調查表
1. To make money as a trader you have to know what the market is going to do next.
Agree Disagree
1. 作為交易者，如果想賺錢，你必須知道市場下一步怎麽走。
同意 不同意
2. Sometimes I find myself thinking that there must be a way to trade without having to take a loss.
Agree Disagree
2. 有時候我在想，一定有不虧錢的交易方法。
同意 不同意
3. Making money as a trader is primarily a function of analysis.
Agree Disagree
3. 交易者基本上是靠分析賺錢的。
同意 不同意
4. Losses are an unavoidable component of trading.
Agree Disagree
4. 虧損是交易不可避免的元素。
同意 不同意
5. My risk is always defined before I enter a trade.
Agree Disagree
5. 我總是在交易前衡量風險。
同意 不同意
6. In my mind there is always a cost associated with finding out what the market may do next.
Agree Disagree
6. 我認為，搞清楚市場下一步怎麽走總是需要成本的。
同意 不同意
7. I wouldn’t even bother putting on the next trade if I wasn’t sure that it was going to be a winner.
Agree Disagree
7. 如果我不能肯定自己會贏，我根本不會交易。
同意 不同意
8. The more a trader learns about the markets and how they behave, the easier it will be for him to execute his trades.
Agree Disagree
8. 交易者對市場和市場行為的了解越多，他就越能輕鬆地執行交易。
同意 不同意
9. My methodology tells me exactly under what market conditions to either enter or exit a trade.
Agree Disagree
9. 我的方法能明確地告訴我在什麽情況下進場或出場。
同意 不同意
10. Even when I have a clear signal to reverse my position, I find it extremely difficult to do.
Agree Disagree
10. 即使我有明確的反轉信號，我發現超級難執行。
同意 不同意
11. I have sustained periods of consistent success usually followed by some fairly drastic draw-downs in my equity.
Agree Disagree
11. 我的資金曲線總是在持續上漲一段時間後出現災難性地衰落。
同意 不同意
12. When I first started trading I would describe my trading methodology as haphazard, meaning some success in between a lot of pain.
Agree Disagree
12. 當我第一次開始交易時，我覺得我的交易方法有偶然性，也就是說有時能賺點，更多的則是痛苦。
同意 不同意
13. I often find myself feeling that the markets are against me personally.
Agree Disagree
13. 我總是感覺市場在和我作對。
同意 不同意
14. As much as I might try to “let go,” I find it very difficult to put past emotional wounds behind me.
Agree Disagree
14. 雖然我努力地去“放手”，卻發現很難忘記過去的情緒創傷。
同意 不同意
15. I have a money management philosophy that is founded in the principle of always taking some money out of the market when the market makes it available.
Agree Disagree
15. 我有一個資金管理方法，當市場對我有利時，我總是轉走一部分資金。
同意 不同意
16. A trader’s job is to identify patterns in the markets’ behavior that represent an opportunity and then to determine the risk of finding out if these patterns will play themselves out as they have in the past.
Agree Disagree
16. 交易者的工作就是確認市場的行為模式，發現機會，然後衡量風險，看看這些模式是否如它們過去表現的那樣。
同意 不同意
17. Sometimes I just can’t help feeling that I am a victim of the market.
Agree Disagree
17. 我有時情不自禁地覺得我是市場的受害者。
同意 不同意
18. When I trade I usually try to stay focused in one time frame.
Agree Disagree
18. 當我交易時，我通常隻關注一個時間框架。
同意 不同意
19. Trading successfully requires a degree of mental flexibility far beyond the scope of most people.
Agree Disagree
19. 成功的交易需要比大部分人更多的思維靈活性。
同意 不同意
20. There are times when I can definitely feel the flow of the market; however, I often have difficulty acting on these feelings.
Agree Disagree
20. 我有時絕對能感覺到市場的流動，然而我總是很難根據這個感覺行動。
同意 不同意
21. There are many times when I am in a profitable trade and I know the move is basically over, but I still won’t take my profits.
Agree Disagree
21. 很多時候，我的倉位賺錢了，我也知道行情基本結束了，但我總是不願意兌現利潤。
同意 不同意
22. No matter how much money I make in a trade, I am rarely ever satisfied and feel that I could have made more.
Agree Disagree
22. 無論一筆交易賺了多少錢，我總是不滿足，總以為自己可以賺的更多。
同意 不同意
23. When I put on a trade, I feel I have a positive attitude. I anticipate all of the money I could make from the trade in a positive way.
Agree Disagree
23. 當我建倉時，我覺得我有積極態度。我希望能賺到所有的錢。
同意 不同意
24. The most important component in a trader’s ability to accumulate money over time is having a belief in his own consistency.
Agree Disagree
24. 交易者長期賺錢的最重要因素就是他有自己的持續一致的信念。
同意 不同意
25. If you were granted a wish to be able to instantaneously acquire one trading skill, what skill would you choose?
25. 如果你現在許願得到一個交易技術，這個許願能被立刻實現，你會選擇什麽技術？
26. I often spend sleepless nights worrying about the market.
Agree Disagree
26. 我經常因為擔心市場而失眠。
同意 不同意
27. Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out?
Yes No
27. 你是否會因為擔心錯過交易而逼自己去交易？
是 否
28. Although it doesn’t happen very often, I really like my trades to be perfect. When I make a perfect call it feels so good that it makes up for all of the times that I don’t.
Agree Disagree
28. 我非常喜歡完美的交易，雖然這事不會經常發生。當我做了一筆完美的交易，我非常高興，過去的痛苦都可以被彌補。
同意 不同意
29. Do you ever find yourself planning trades you never execute, and executing trades you never planned?
Yes No
29. 你是否做了計劃不交易，交易的卻是沒有計劃的？
是 否
30. In a few sentences explain why most traders either don’t make money or aren’t able to keep what they make.
用幾句話解釋為什麽大部分交易者要麽不能賺錢，要麽不能守住利潤。
                                                                    
Set aside your answers as you read through this book. After you’ve finished the last chapter (“Thinking Like a Trader”), take the Attitude Survey again - it s reprinted at the back of the book. You may be surprised to see how much your answers differ from the first time.
當你閱讀本書的時候，把你的答案放在旁邊。當你讀完了最後一章（“像交易者一樣思考”），再次做這個態度調查——在本書後麵又印了一次。你會吃驚地發現你的答案和第一次有多麽不同。
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
感謝詞
I would especially like to thank all of the traders who bought the signed limited edition manuscript of the first seven chapters of this book. Your feedback gave me the inspiration to add the additional four chapters.
我特別感謝購買了有本人簽字，隻有前7章限量版底稿的交易者。你們的回複給了我靈感，我又多寫了4章。
Next, I would like to thank fellow traders Robert St. John, Greg Bieber, Larry Pesavento, and Ted Hearne for their friendship and the special ways in which each of them contributed to the development of this book.
其次，我要感謝我的夥伴，他們也是交易者，他們分別是羅伯特•聖•約翰、格雷格•比伯、拉裏•斐薩文托和泰德•赫恩。感謝他們的友誼，感謝他們用特殊的方式為本書做的貢獻。
I would also like to acknowledge my friend, Eileen Bruno, for editing the original manuscript; and, at Prentice Hall, Ellen Schneid Coleman, Associate Publisher, for her professionalism and help in smoothing the path to publication, and Barry Richardson, Development Editor, for his help in shaping the introduction. His time and talent are greatly appreciated.
我還要感謝我的朋友，艾琳•布魯諾，感謝她編輯我的原稿；還有普林蒂斯霍爾出版公司的艾倫•施耐德•科勒曼，她是副社長，感謝她的專業精神以幫助本書順利出版；還有巴裏•理查森，他是編輯，感謝他幫忙形成的介紹，衷心感激他付出的時間和他的才華。
CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS?
第01 章 成功之路：基本麵、技術麵或思維分析麵？
IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
先談：基本麵分析
Who remembers when fundamental analysis was considered the only real or proper way to make trading decisions? When I started trading in 1978, technical analysis was used by only a handful of traders, who were considered by the rest of the market community to be, at the very least, crazy. As difficult as it is to believe now, it wasn’t very long ago when Wall Street and most of the major funds and financial institutions thought that technical analysis was some form of mystical hocus-pocus.
誰還記得基本麵分析曾經是唯一真實的或合理的交易決定方法？當我1978年開始交易時，隻有少數人用技術分析，當時市場大眾認為他們瘋了。現在讓人很難相信的是，不久前華爾街大部分主要基金和金融機構都認為技術分析是某種神秘的騙人把戲。
Now, of course, just the opposite is true. Almost all experienced traders use some form of technical analysis to help them formulate their trading strategies. Except for some small, isolated pockets in the academic community, the “purely” fundamental analyst is virtually extinct. What caused this dramatic shift in perspective?
當然現在又說技術分析是對的。幾乎所有有經驗的交易者都會使用某種技術分析幫助他們形成交易策略。除了少數，與世隔絕的學院派人士，“純粹”的基本麵分析人士幾乎絕種了。是什麽導致了觀念的巨大變化？
I’m sure it’s no surprise to anyone that the answer to this question is very simple: Money! The problem with making trading decisions from a strictly fundamental perspective is the inherent difficulty of making money consistently using this approach.
我保證答案很簡單，任何人都不會感到吃驚，那就是錢！用嚴格的基本麵分析做交易決定時遇到的內在困難就是無法長期持續一致地賺錢。
For those of you who may not be familiar with fundamental analysis, let me explain. Fundamental analysis attempts to take into consideration all the variables that could affect the relative balance or imbalance between the supply of and the possible demand for any particular stock, commodity, or financial instrument. Using primarily mathematical models that weigh the significance of a variety of factors (interest rates, balance sheets, weather patterns, and numerous others), the analyst projects what the price should be at some point in the future.
如果你不了解基本麵分析，請讓我來解釋一下。對於股票、商品或金融產品，基本麵分析盡量做到綜合考慮影響供需平衡或不平衡之間的所有變數。基本麵分析人士利用基本的數學模型來衡量不同因素的權重（利率、資產負債表、天氣情況以及無數的其它因素），以預測未來價格應該在什麽點位。
The problem with these models is that they rarely, if ever, factor in other traders as variables. People, expressing their beliefs and expectations about the future, make prices move - not models. The fact that a model makes a logical and reasonable projection based on all the relevant variables is not of much value if the traders who are responsible for most of the trading volume are not aware of the model or don’t believe in it.
這些模型的問題是它們從來不把其他交易者當變數因素。是大眾通過推動價格來表達他們的信念和期望的——不是模型推動的。大部分交易量是交易者製造的，如果交易者不知道這個模型或者不相信這個模型，那麽這個模型所根據的變數是沒有價值的，它的邏輯和合理預測也沒有價值。
As a matter of fact, many traders, especially those on the floors of the futures exchanges who have the ability to move prices very dramatically in one direction or the other, usually don’t have the slightest concept of the fundamental supply and demand factors that are supposed to affect prices. Furthermore, at any given moment, much of their trading activity is prompted by a response to emotional factors that are completely outside the parameters of the fundamental model. In other words, the people who trade (and consequently move prices) don’t always act in a rational manner.
事實上，很多交易者，尤其是期貨交易所的場內交易者，他們通常對影響價格的基本麵供需情況沒有任何概念，但他們可以大幅度地上下推動價格。另外，在任意時刻，他們大部分的交易行為是受情緒因素推動的，而基本麵的模型根本沒有考慮到情緒因素。換句話說，參與交易的大眾（最終會推動價格）並非總是理性地交易。
Ultimately, the fundamental analyst could find that a prediction about where prices should be at some point in the future is correct. But in the meantime, price movement could be so volatile that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to stay in a trade in order to realize the objective.
最終結果是，基本麵分析人士可以發現對價格在未來達到某個點位的預測是正確的。但同時價格波動太厲害，即使有可能，那也很難通過堅持持有倉位來實現目標。
THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
再談技術分析
Technical analysis has been around for as long as there have been organized markets in the form of exchanges. But the trading community didn’t accept technical analysis as a viable tool for making money until the late 1970s or early 1980s. Here’s what the technical analyst knew that it took the mainstream market community generations to catch on to.
當有組織的交易所出現時，技術分析就存在了。但是在70年代末或80年代初之前，大眾不認為技術分析是賺錢的有效工具。技術分析人士很清楚，市場大眾用了幾代人的時間才掌握技術分析。
A finite number of traders participate in the markets on any given day, week, or month. Many of these traders do the same lands of things over and over in their attempt to make money. In other words, individuals develop behavior patterns, and a group of individuals, interacting with one another on a consistent basis, form collective behavior patterns. These behavior patterns are observable and quantifiable, and they repeat themselves with statistical reliability.
每天、每周、每月都有一定數量的交易者進入市場。很多交易者重複地做同一件事，以希望賺錢。換句話說，個人形成行為模式，一群人不停地互相交易，形成集體行為模式。這些行為模式是可以觀察到的，是可以量化的，統計數字表明它們會重複出現。
Technical analysis is a method that organizes this collective behavior into identifiable patterns that can give a clear indication of when there is a greater probability of one thing happening over another. In a sense, technical analysis allows you to get into the mind of the market to anticipate what’s likely to happen next, based on the kind of patterns the market generated at some previous moment.
技術分析是一種方法，把集體行為模式組成可以確認的模式，這樣它就能當某件事發生的概率比較大時給出明確的確認。也就是說，根據以前市場發生的模式，技術分析讓你進入市場的思維以預測很可能發生的事。
As a method for projecting future price movement, technical analysis has turned out to be far superior to a purely fundamental approach. It keeps the trader focused on what the market is doing now in relation to what it has done in the past, instead of focusing on what the market should be doing based solely on what is logical and reasonable as determined by a mathematical model. On the other hand, fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.
作為預測未來價格波動的一種方法，事實證明技術分析比純粹的基本麵分析要高級很多。技術分析讓交易者把市場的現在和過去聯係起來並聚焦於市場正在做什麽，而不會像基本麵分析僅僅根據數學模型邏輯分析決定市場應該做什麽。另一方麵，用我的話說，基本麵分析人士在“應該”和“現實”之間製造了“現實差距”。即使他們是正確的，由於現實差距的存在，他們很難賺到錢，他們擁有的隻是很難實現的長期預測目標。
In contrast, technical analysis not only closes this reality gap, but also makes available to the trader a virtually unlimited number of possibilities to take advantage of. The technical approach opens up many more possibilities because it identifies how the same repeatable behavior patterns occur in every time frame - moment-to-moment, daily, weekly, yearly, and every time span in between. In other words, technical analysis turns the market into an endless stream of opportunities to enrich oneself.
相反，技術分析不但彌補了現實差距，還給交易者提供了一定的概率，交易者可以利用這個概率。因為技術方法確認了每天、每周、每年——任何時間框架內——同樣的行為模式是如何重複出現的，所以提供了很多可能性。換句話說，技術分析把市場變成了無窮的機會，個人可以利用這些機會致富。
THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS
再談心理分析
If technical analysis works so well, why would more and more of the trading community shift their focus from technical analysis of the market to mental analysis of themselves, meaning their own individual trading psychology? To answer this question, you probably don’t have to do anything more than ask yourself why you bought this book. The most likely reason is that you’re dissatisfied with the difference between what you perceive as the unlimited potential to make money and what you end up with on the bottom line.
如果技術分析這麽好，那為什麽越來越多的交易者會把自己的焦點從技術分析轉到心理分析，也就是他們自己的交易心理？要回答這個問題，你不必做其它事，還不如問你為什麽買這本書？最有可能的原因是，你感覺有無限的賺錢可能，但實際上你賺不到，理想和現實有差距，你感到不滿意。
That’s the problem with technical analysis, if you want to call it a problem. Once you learn to identify patterns and read the market, you find there are limitless opportunities to make money. But, as I’m sure you already know, there can also be a huge gap between what you understand about the markets, and your ability to transform that knowledge into consistent profits or a steadily rising equity curve.
如果你承認這是問題的話，這就是技術分析的問題。一旦你學會了如何確認模式並解讀市場，你發現有無限的賺錢機會。但是，我想你也知道，認識市場和有能力把這個知識轉化成持續的利潤或穩定增長的資金曲線之間有巨大的差距。
Think about the number of times you’ve looked at a price chart and said to yourself, “Hmmm, it looks like the market is going up (or down, as the case may be),” and what you thought was going to happen actually happened. But you did nothing except watch the market move while you anguished over all the money you could have made.
想想有多少次你對著價格圖自言自語：“嗯，看起來市場要漲（或者是跌）。”而且你想象的事真的發生了。你隻是眼睜睜地看著市場朝你想象的方向走去，但你並沒有做什麽，你為錯過了賺錢的機會而痛苦不已。
There’s a big difference between predicting that something will happen in the market (and thinking about all the money you could have made) and the reality of actually getting into and out of trades. I call this difference, and others like it, a “psychological gap” that can make trading one of the most difficult endeavors you could choose to undertake and certainly one of the most mysterious to master.
預測市場要發生什麽事（以為自己可以賺到所有的錢）和你進場交易把錢賺到手之間有很大的不同。我說這是不同，很多人喜歡叫做“心理差距”，心理差距讓交易成為最難的行為之一，當然也是最神秘最不容易掌握的。
The big question is: Can trading be mastered? Is it possible to experience trading with the same ease and simplicity implied when you are only watching the market and thinking about success, as opposed to actually having to put on and take off trades? Not only is the answer an unequivocal “yes,” but that’s also exactly what this book is designed to give you - the insight and understanding you need about yourself and about the nature of trading. So the result is that actually doing it becomes as easy, simple, and stressfree as when you are just watching the market and thinking about doing it.
最大的問題是：“交易是可以掌握的嗎？”是不是有可能輕鬆簡單地看著市場並想著自己的成功，然後就完成了交易？不僅答案是絕對的“是”，而且本書就是為了告訴你這個——對自己和對交易本質的深刻認知和了解。最終結果就像你觀察市場思考交易一樣，做起來很容易、簡單、沒有壓力。
This may seem like a tall order, and to some of you it may even seem impossible. But it’s not. There are people who have mastered the art of trading, who have closed the gap between the possibilities available and their bottom-line performance. But as you might expect, these winners are relatively few in number compared with the number of traders who experience varying degrees of frustration, all the way to extreme exasperation, wondering why they can’t create the consistent success they so desperately desire.
這看起來很難，有些人會覺得這不可能，但這是可以實現的。有些人已經掌握了交易的藝術，把可能性和自己糟糕業績之間的差距填補了。大部分交易者經曆不同程度的挫折，直到最後他們極度憤怒，他們搞不懂為何自己就不能像自己渴望的那樣實現持續的成功。而這中間隻有極少數人能成為贏家。
In fact, the differences between these two groups of traders (the consistent winners and everyone else) are analogous to the differences between the Earth and the moon. The Earth and moon are both celestial bodies that exist in the same solar system, so they do have something in common. But they are as different in nature and characteristics as night and day. By the same token, anyone who puts on a trade can claim to be a trader, but when you compare the characteristics of the handful of consistent winners with the characteristics of most other traders, you’ll find they’re also as different as night and day.
實際上，這兩種交易者（持續一致的贏家和其他人）之間的差距類似於地球和月亮的差距。地球和月亮都是太陽係的天體，所以它們是有共同點的，但是它們的本質特征就像白天和黑夜一樣不同。同樣的道理，隻要是做了交易的人都可以號稱自己是交易者，但是當你把少數持續一致的贏家和大部分交易者做對比時，你就會發現他們之間的差距像白天和黑夜一樣不同。
If going to the moon represents consistent success as a trader, we can say that getting to the moon is possible. The journey is extremely difficult and only a handful of people have made it. From our perspective here on Earth, the moon is usually visible every night and it seems so close that we could just reach out and touch it. Trading successfully feels the same way. On any given day, week, or month, the markets make available vast amounts of money to anyone who has the capacity to put on a trade. Since the markets are in constant motion, this money is also constantly flowing, which makes the possibilities for success greatly magnified and seemingly within your grasp.
如果登月代表了持續一致成功的交易者，我們可以說登月是可能的。這個過程極度困難，隻有少數人才能成功。我們從地球的角度來看，月亮每晚都在那裏，似乎觸手可及。成功的交易感覺也是如此。不管是哪天、哪周、哪月，任何人隻要有能力，就可以賺到很多錢。因為市場在持續波動，資金也在持續流動，這樣就把成功可能性極度放大了，成功似乎觸手可及。
I use the word “seemingly” to make an important distinction between the two groups of traders. For those who have learned how to be consistent, or have broken through what I call the “threshold of consistency,” the money is not only within their grasp; they can virtually take it at will. I’m sure that some will find this statement shocking or difficult to believe, but it is true. There are some limitations, but for the most part, money flows into the accounts of these traders with such ease and effortlessness that it literally boggles most people’s minds.
我用“似乎”這個詞來鄭重區分兩種交易者。對於已經掌握了持續一致賺錢的方法，或者說“跨過了持續一致性這道門檻”的交易者來說，錢不僅僅在掌握之中，他們還可以說是想要就要。我肯定有人覺得這句話太令人吃驚了，或不敢相信，但這是真的。雖然有一定的限製，但大部分錢會流進輕輕鬆鬆的交易者的賬戶，這讓大部分人感到吃驚。
However, for the traders who have not evolved into this select group, the word “seemingly” means exactly what it implies. It seems as if the consistency or ultimate success they desire is “at hand,” or “within their grasp,” just before it slips away or evaporates before their eyes, time and time again. The only thing about trading that is consistent with this group is emotional pain. Yes, they certainly have moments of elation, but it is not an exaggeration to say that most of the time they are in a state of fear, anger, frustration, anxiety, disappointment, betrayal, and regret.
然而，對於還沒有進入這個行列的交易者來說，“似乎”確實就是“似乎”。他們渴望的持續一致性或最終的成功“就在眼前”或“觸手可及”，但一次又一次地在眼前跑走或消失了。對於這些人來說，交易是一種痛苦。是的，他們當然有興高采烈的時候，但不誇張地說，大部分時間他們的感覺是恐懼、憤怒、灰心喪氣、焦急、失望、背叛和後悔。
So what separates these two groups of traders? Is it intelligence? Are the consistent winners just plain smarter than everyone else? Do they work harder? Are they better analysts, or do they have access to better trading systems? Do they possess inherent personality characteristics that make it easier for them to deal with the intense pressures of trading?
那麽這兩種交易者的不同之處在哪裏？是智力嗎？是不是持續一致的贏家比其他人聰明？是不是他們更努力？是不是他們的分析能力強？是不是他們有更好的交易係統？是不是他們天生就能在壓力下輕鬆地交易？
All of these possibilities sound quite plausible, except when you consider that most of the trading industry’s failures are also some of society’s brightest and most accomplished people. The largest group of consistent losers is composed primarily of doctors, lawyers, engineers, scientists, CEOs, wealthy retirees, and entrepreneurs. Furthermore, most of the industry’s best market analysts are the worst traders imaginable. Intelligence and good market analysis can certainly contribute to success, but they are not the defining factors that separate the consistent winners from everyone else.
當你想到由社會上最聰明和最有成就的人組成的大部分交易機構也會失敗時，你就知道這些可能的理由都是似是而非的。大部分持續的輸家基本上由這些人組成：醫生、律師、工程師、科學家、首席執行官、富有的退休人員和企業家。另外，這個行業大部分最優秀的分析師其實是最差的交易者。智力和優秀的分析肯定能有助於成功，但是它們不是區分持續一致的贏家和其他人的決定性因素。
Well, if it isn’t intelligence or better analysis, then what could it be?
嗯，如果不是智力或更好的分析，那麽會是什麽？
Having worked with some of the best and some of the worst traders in the business, and having helped some of the worst become some of the best, I can state without a doubt that there are specific reasons why the best traders consistently out-perform everyone else. If I had to distill all of the reasons down to one, I would simply say that the best traders think differently from the rest.
我和這個行業一些最優秀的交易者溝通過，也和一些最差的交易者溝通過，我還把一些最差的變成了最優秀的，我可以毫無疑問地給出最優秀的交易者比其他人優秀的具體理由。如果我必須把這些理由濃縮成一個理由，簡單說就是最優秀的交易者和其他人的思維不同。
I know that doesn’t sound very profound, but it does have profound implications if you consider what it means to think differently. To one degree or another, all of us think differently from everyone else. We may not always be mindful of this fact; it seems natural to assume that other people share our perceptions and interpretations of events. In fact, this assumption continues to seem valid until we find ourselves in a basic, fundamental disagreement with someone about something we both experienced. Other than our physical features, the way we think is what makes us unique, probably even more unique than our physical features do.
我知道這聽起來不深刻，但是如果你知道不同的想法意味著什麽你就知道它的深刻含義了。從某種程度上說，每個人的思維都和別人不同。我們很自然地以為別人和我們對事物的看法和理解是一樣的，但並非總是如此。實際上，直到我們對共同體驗過的事的基本看法有了分歧時我們才發現別人的想法和我們不同。除了身體特征之外，我們的思維讓我們獨特，甚至比身體特征還獨特。
Let’s get back to traders. What is different about die way the best traders think as opposed to how those who are still struggling think? While the markets can be described as an arena of endless opportunities, they simultaneously confront the individual with some of the most sustained, adverse psychological conditions you can expose yourself to. At some point, everyone who trades learns something about the markets that will indicate when opportunities exist. But learning how to identify an opportunity to buy or sell does not mean that you have learned to think like a trader.
讓我們繼續談論交易者。最優秀的交易者和那些還在苦苦思索的交易者之間的思維有什麽不同？雖然市場可以被描述為無窮機會的競技場，但這些機會同時給交易者造成了持續的，相反的心理狀態。任何交易者學到的某些知識從某種程度上說都能發現機會。但是學會了確認買賣機會並非意味著學會了像交易者一樣思考。
The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mindset - a unique set of attitudes - that allows them to remain disciplined, focused, and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions. As a result, they are no longer susceptible to the common fears and trading errors that plague everyone else. Everyone who trades ends up learning something about the markets; very few people who trade ever learn the attitudes that are absolutely essential to becoming a consistent winner. Just as people can learn to perfect the proper technique for swinging a golf club or tennis racket, their consistency, or lack of it, will without a doubt come from their attitude.
區分持續一致的贏家和其他人的決定性特征是：贏家有一種思維——獨特的態度——能讓他們保持有紀律、專注、更重要的是在不利狀況下保持自信。結果是，通常的恐懼和交易錯誤會傳染給其他人，但持續一致的贏家不會受影響。每個交易者最終都能學到一點市場知識，隻有極少數人學到了成為持續一致贏家的關鍵態度。就像人們可以學會完美地打高爾夫或網球的技術，他們的態度則決定了他們是否會一直保持完美狀態。
Traders who make it beyond “the threshold of consistency” usually experience a great deal of pain (both emotional and financial) before they acquire the land of attitude that allows them to function effectively in the market environment. The rare exceptions are usually those who were born into successful trading families or who started their trading careers under the guidance of someone who understood the true nature of trading, and, just as important, knew how to teach it.
跨過了“持續一致性門檻”的交易者通常體驗了很多痛苦（既是情緒上的，也是金錢上的），然後他們才會在市場中擁有有效的態度。比較特殊的情況就是有些人的家人本來就會交易，他一出生就在學；或者是有一個懂交易的人，會教的人一直在教他。
Why are emotional pain and financial disaster common among traders? The simple answer is that most of us weren’t fortunate enough to start our trading careers with the proper guidance. However, the reasons go much deeper than this. I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the principles of success. What I’ve discovered is that trading is chock full of paradoxes and contradictions in thinking that make it extremely difficult to learn how to be successful. In fact, if I had to choose one word that encapsulates the nature of trading, it would be “paradox.” (According to the dictionary, a paradox is something that seems to have contradictory qualities or that is contrary to common belief or what generally makes sense to people.)
為什麽交易者都會體驗情緒上的痛苦和金錢上的災難？簡單說就是大部分人的運氣都不好，他們剛開始交易時沒有得到過別人合理的指導。然而，真正的原因比這還深奧。過去17年我都在剖析交易心理，所以我形成了有效的方法以傳授成功的原則。我發現交易充滿了似是而非和矛盾的思維，這樣就很難學習如何成功。實際上，如果讓我用一個單詞來概括交易的本質，那就是“似是而非”。（根據詞典的解釋，似是而非就是一些看起來有矛盾特點的東西，或者是和通常信念或一般人認可的東西相反。）
Financial and emotional disaster are common among traders because many of the perspectives, attitudes, and principles that would otherwise make perfect sense and work quite well in our daily lives have the opposite effect in the trading environment. They just don’t work. Not knowing this, most traders start their careers with a fundamental lack of understanding of what it means to be a trader, the skills that are involved, and the depth to which those skills need to be developed.
平時我們的很多看法、態度和原則是完美無缺的，它們在我們的日常生活中也是非常有用的，但是它們在交易中的作用卻是相反的，所以交易者常常會在金錢上和情緒上遭遇災難。這些完美的看法、態度和原則在交易中不起作用，大部分交易者還沒明白這個道理就開始了交易生涯。他們缺少對交易的認知，不懂技術，也不知道要學什麽技術。
Here is a prime example of what I am talking about: Trading is inherently risky. To my knowledge, no trade has a guaranteed outcome; therefore, the possibility of being wrong and losing money is always present. So when you put on a trade, can you consider yourself a risk-taker? Even though this may sound like a trick question, it is not.
我的基本總結就是：交易天生就是有風險的。根據我的經驗，沒有任何一筆交易是肯定賺錢的。因此判斷錯誤並虧錢的可能性永遠存在的。所以，當你交易時，你是否願意把自己當作一個接受風險的人？雖然這聽起來像是有陷阱的問題，但這不是有陷阱的問題。
The logical answer to the question is, unequivocally, yes. If I engage in an activity that is inherently risky, then I must be a risk-taker. This is a perfectly reasonable assumption for any trader to make. In fact, not only do virtually all traders make this assumption, but most traders take pride in thinking of themselves as risk-takers.
針對這個問題，合理的答案應該是明確地說：我願意。如果我參與的活動天生就有風險，那麽我一定是一個接受風險的人。我假定任何交易者都是這麽想的。實際上，不但幾乎所有的交易者都這麽想，而且大部分交易者會很驕傲地把自己當作接受風險的人。
The problem is that this assumption couldn’t be further from the truth. Of course, any trader is taking a risk when you put on a trade, but that doesn’t mean that you are correspondingly accepting that risk. In other words, all trades are risky because the outcomes are probable - not guaranteed. But do most traders really believe they are taking a risk when they put on a trade? Have they really accepted that the trade has a non-guaranteed, probable outcome? Furthermore, have they fully accepted the possible consequences?
問題是這個假定不能離事實太遠。當然了，每個交易者在交易時都承擔了風險，但這不代表你相應地接受了風險。換句話說，因為所有的交易結果都是可能的，所以交易都是有風險的——也就是沒有保證的。但這是否意味著大部分交易者在交易時都接受了風險？他們是否真的接受了交易是沒有保證的，隻是可能的結果？另外，他們是否完全接受了可能的後果？
The answer is, unequivocally, no! Most traders have absolutely no concept of what it means to be a risk-taker in the way a successful trader thinks about risk. The best traders not only take the risk, they have also learned to accept and embrace that risk. There is a huge psychological gap between assuming you are a risk-taker because you put on trades and fully accepting the risks inherent in each trade. When you fully accept the risks, it will have profound implications on your bottom-line performance.
答案肯定是：否！大部分交易者絕對不知道接受風險是什麽意思，他們根本不知道成功的交易者如何看待風險。最優秀的交易者不但接受風險，他們還學會了承受和擁抱風險。在假定你是冒險的人和承認你是冒險的人之間有一個巨大的心理落差，因為你要交易，需要完全接受每筆交易天生的風險。一旦你完全接受了風險，對你的最差表現會有深刻的含義。
The best traders can put on a trade without the slightest bit of hesitation or conflict, and just as freely and without hesitation or conflict, admit it isn’t working. They can get out of the trade - even with a loss - and doing so doesn’t resonate the slightest bit of emotional discomfort. In other words, the risks inherent in trading do not cause the best traders to lose their discipline, focus, or sense of confidence. If you are unable to trade without the slightest bit of emotional discomfort (specifically, fear), then you have not learned how to accept the risks inherent in trading. This is a big problem, because to whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
最優秀的交易者交易時沒有一絲一毫的猶豫或衝突，很輕鬆地承認也許這筆交易會虧損。即使發生了虧損，他們在退出交易時也不會有一點點情緒上的不舒服。換句話說，交易天生的風險不會讓最優秀的交易者失去紀律、專注或自信。如果你不能做到不帶情緒（特別是恐懼）地交易，那麽你就沒有學會接受交易天生的風險。這是大問題，因為不管你如何不接受風險，都等同於你會避免風險。總是想避免無法避免的風險對你的交易能力會產生災難性的影響。
Learning to truly accept the risks in any endeavor can be difficult, but it is extremely difficult for traders, especially considering what’s at stake. What are we generally most afraid of (besides dying or public speaking)? Certainly, losing money and being wrong both rank close to the top of the list. Admitting we are wrong and losing money to boot can be extremely painful, and certainly something to avoid. Yet as traders, we are confronted with these two possibilities virtually every moment we are in a trade.
在任何行業學習完全接受風險都是困難的，對交易者則是超級困難，尤其是想到承受風險的是什麽時。我們通常最害怕什麽（除了死亡和公開演講）？虧錢和犯錯當然會成為比較靠前的答案。承認我們錯了，承認我們虧錢了，是極度痛苦的，當然也是我們想避免的。然而作為交易者，我們時時刻刻都要麵對這兩個可能會發生的狀況。
Now, you might be saying to yourself, “Apart from the fact that it hurts so much, it’s natural to not want to be wrong and lose something; therefore, it’s appropriate for me to do whatever I can to avoid it.” I agree with you. But it is also this natural tendency that makes trading (which looks like it should be easy) extremely difficult.
此時，你可能會對自己說：“除了深受傷害之外，避免犯錯和避免虧損都是很自然的，因此我盡力避免它們是合理的。”我同意你的觀點。但是就是這個自然傾向導致交易（看起來很簡單）極度困難。
Trading presents us with a fundamental paradox: How do we remain disciplined, focused, and confident in the face of constant uncertainty? When you have learned how to “think” like a trader, that’s exactly what you’ll be able to do. Learning how to redefine your trading activities in a way that allows you to completely accept the risk is the key to thinking like a successful trader. Learning to accept the risk is a trading skill - the most important skill you can learn. Yet it’s rare that developing traders focus any attention or expend any effort to learn it.
交易給了我們一個重要的似非而是的難題：如何在持續的不確定性麵前保持紀律、專注和自信？一旦你學會了如何像交易者一樣“思考”，你就真的會這麽做。像成功的交易者一樣思考的關鍵是學習如何重新定義你的交易行為以讓你完全接受風險。學習接受風險是一種交易技術——你能學的最重要的技術。然而用心或努力學習它的交易者很少。
When you learn the trading skill of risk acceptance, the market will not be able to generate information that you define or interpret as painful. If the information the market generates doesn’t have the potential to cause you emotional pain, there’s nothing to avoid. It is just information, telling you what the possibilities are. This is called an objective perspective - one that is not skewed or distorted by what you are afraid is going to happen or not happen.
一旦你學好了接受風險這個技術，無論市場怎麽折騰，你都不會感到痛苦。如果市場沒有能力讓你痛苦，你就不用回避什麽了。你眼裏隻有可能性。這就叫客觀的認知態度——你不會因為自己害怕某事會發生或某事不會發生而改變或扭曲了自己的認知。
I’m sure there isn’t one trader reading this book who hasn’t gotten into trades too soon - before the market has actually generated a signal, or too late - long after the market has generated a signal. What trader hasn’t convinced himself not to take a loss and, as a result, had it turn into a bigger one; or got out of winning trades too soon; or found himself in winning trades but didn’t take any profits at all, and then let the trades turn into losers; or moved stoplosses closer to his entry point, only to get stopped out and have the market go back in his direction? These are but a few of the many errors traders perpetuate upon themselves time and time again.
我保證所有的讀者都在不當的時機交易過——要麽是在市場發出信號之前很早就提前進場了，要麽是在市場發出信號以後很久才慢吞吞地進場。以下這些現象是怎麽發生的？交易者告訴自己不要虧損，結果虧的更多。過早平掉了賺錢的倉位。自己的倉位明明是賺錢的，因為沒有兌現利潤，然後又變成了虧錢的倉位。把止損點設置在進場點附近，被止損以後市場又向有利自己的方向前進了。錯誤有很多，這裏列舉的很少，交易者一次又一次地犯這些錯誤。
These are not market-generated errors. That is, these errors do not come from the market. The market is neutral, in the sense that it moves and generates information about itself. Movement and information provide each of us with the opportunity to do something, but that’s all! The markets don’t have any power over the unique way in which each of us perceives and interprets this information, or control of the decisions and actions we take as a result. The errors I already mentioned and many more are strictly the result of what I call “faulty trading attitudes and perspectives.” Faulty attitudes that foster fear instead of trust and confidence.
這些錯誤不是市場製造的，也就是說這些錯誤並非來自市場。市場是中立的，它隻是波動和製造關於自身的信息。波動和信息提供給每個人做點什麽的機會，但僅僅如此！市場沒有任何能力控製我們如何解讀理解信息，市場也不會控製我們的決定和行動。我之前提到的錯誤和很多錯誤是“對交易的錯誤態度和認知”造成的。錯誤的態度滋養恐懼，無法滋養出信任和自信。
I don’t think I could put the difference between the consistent winners and everyone else more simply than this: The best traders aren’t afraid. They aren’t afraid because they have developed attitudes that give them the greatest degree of mental flexibility to flow in and out of trades based on what the market is telling them about the possibilities from its perspective. At the same time, the best traders have developed attitudes that prevent them from getting reckless. Everyone else is afraid, to some degree or another. When they’re not afraid, they have the tendency to become reckless and to create the kind of experience for themselves that will cause them to be afraid from that point on.
我想再也找不到這麽簡單的話來區分持續一致的贏家和其他人了：最優秀的交易者不害怕。他們不害怕是因為他們根據市場提供的可能的機會進行交易，他們已經形成了最大的思維靈活性，可以自由地進出交易。同時，最優秀的交易者形成了不輕率的態度。從某種程度上說，每個人都害怕。當他們不再害怕時，他們傾向於輕率，輕率的結果就是他們又開始害怕了。
Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make - causing the money to just evaporate before your eyes - will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. What I call the four primary trading fears.
你可能會犯95%的交易錯誤——導致錢在眼前蒸發了——你犯錯的原因來自幾種態度：做錯、虧錢、錯過、失算，我把這四種態度稱做四種基本的交易恐懼。
Now, you may be saying to yourself, “I don’t know about this: I’ve always thought traders should have a healthy fear of the markets.” Again, this is a perfectly logical and reasonable assumption. But when it comes to trading, your fears will act against you in such a way that you will cause the very thing you are afraid of to actually happen. If you’re afraid of being wrong, your fear will act upon your perception of market information in a way that will cause you to do something that ends up making you wrong.
此時，你也許會對自己說：“我不明白：我一直以為交易者應該對市場有健康的恐懼心理。”再次說明，這是一個完美的邏輯推理假定。但是當你交易時，你的恐懼心理又會和你作對，導致你害怕的事真的發生了。如果你害怕犯錯，你的恐懼心理會讓你對市場的理解產生錯誤，導致你犯錯。
When you are fearful, no other possibilities exist. You can’t perceive other possibilities or act on them properly, even if you did manage to perceive them, because fear is immobilizing. Physically, it causes us to freeze or run. Mentally, it causes us to narrow our focus of attention to the object of our fear. This means that thoughts about other possibilities, as well as other available information from the market, get blocked. You won’t think about all the rational things you’ve learned about the market until you are no longer afraid and the event is over. Then you will think to yourself, “I knew that. Why didn’t I think of it then?” or, “Why couldn’t I act on it then?”
當你恐懼時，你就忽視了其它的可能性。因為恐懼心理讓你喪失了機動性，即使你想努力看見其它可能性，你也無法看見其它可能性或不能妥善處理它們。從物理角度來說，恐懼心理把我們凍住了，無法跑動。從思維上說，恐懼讓我們把注意力聚焦在我們害怕的事上麵。這意味著關於其它可能性的想法，市場的其它信息都被阻擋了。隻有當你不再恐懼了，你擔心的事已經結束時，你才會想到理性的事。然後你心裏會想：“我就知道會這樣，為什麽我當時就不知道呢？”或者是“我當時為何無動於衷？”
It’s extremely difficult to perceive that the source of these problems is our own inappropriate attitudes. That’s what makes fear so insidious. Many of the thinking patterns that adversely affect our trading are a function of the natural ways in which we were brought up to think and see the world. These thinking patterns are so deeply ingrained that it rarely occurs to us that the source of our trading difficulties is internal, derived from our state of mind. Indeed, it seems much more natural to see the source of a problem as external, in the market, because it feels like the market is causing our pain, frustration, and dissatisfaction.
很難理解這些問題的根源是我們自己不恰當的態度。我們自己不恰當的態度把恐懼變成了潛伏的禍害。我們成長時所形成的很多看待世界的正常的思維模式對交易則是不利的。這些思維模式已經根深蒂固了，所以我們很少想到交易的困難來自內部，來自我們的思維。以為問題的根源來自外部，來自市場是很自然的，因為感覺上就是市場在導致我們痛苦、受挫和不滿。
Obviously these are abstract concepts and certainly not something most traders are going to concern themselves with. Yet understanding the relationship between beliefs, attitudes, and perception is as fundamental to trading as learning how to serve is to tennis, or as learning how to swing a club is to golf. Put another way, understanding and controlling your perception of market information is important only to the extent that you want to achieve consistent results.
很明顯這些都是抽象的概念，大部分交易者當然不關心。但是，理解信念、態度和認知的關係是交易的基礎，就像打網球時的發球，打高爾夫時的揮杆一樣。換個說法，如果你想實現持續一致的收益，那麽理解和控製你對市場信息的認知是重要的。
I say this because there is something else about trading that is as true as the statement I just made: You don’t have to know anything about yourself or the markets to put on a winning trade, just as you don’t have to know the proper way to swing a tennis racket or golf club in order to hit a good shot from time to time. The first time I played golf, I hit several good shots throughout the game even though I hadn’t learned any particular technique; but my score was still over 120 for 18 holes. Obviously, to improve my overall score, I needed to learn technique.
我說這些是因為還有另外一個關於交易的事和我剛才說的一樣是事實：就像你不必知道恰當的揮動網球拍或高爾夫球杆的方法也能每次都打出好球一樣，你不必對自己或市場做全麵了解也能做出一筆賺錢的交易。我第一次打高爾夫球時，我根本沒有學任何特殊技術，也打出了幾杆好球，但我的分數還是18洞120多杆。很明顯，要想提高我的總體成績，我需要學習技術。
Of course, the same is true for trading. We need technique to achieve consistency. But what technique? This is truly one of the most perplexing aspects of learning how to trade effectively. If we aren’t aware of, or don’t understand, how our beliefs and attitudes affect our perception of market information, it will seem as if it is the market’s behavior that is causing the lack of consistency. As a result, it would stand to reason that the best way to avoid losses and become consistent would be to learn more about the markets.
當然，交易也是同理。我們需要用技術實現持續一致性。但要什麽技術呢？這是在學習如何有效地交易過程中最混亂的地方。如果我們自己都沒有意識到或不知道要用什麽技術，那麽我們的信念和態度如何能影響我們對市場信息的認知呢？結果似乎是市場行為導致了我們沒有持續一致性。如此一來，要想避免虧損，實現持續一致性，更多地了解市場就變得很合理了。
This bit of logic is a trap that almost all traders fall into at some point, and it seems to make perfect sense. But this approach doesn’t work. The market simply offers too many - often conflicting - variables to consider. Furthermore, there are no limits to the market’s behavior. It can do anything at any moment. As a matter of fact, because every person who trades is a market variable, it can be said that any single trader can cause virtually anything to happen.
這個邏輯有陷阱，幾乎所有的交易者都曾經掉入過這個陷阱。雖然這個邏輯看起來很合理，但是更多地了解市場是沒用的。市場僅僅是提供了很多——經常是衝突的——變數讓你思考。再說了，市場的行為是無限的，它可以在任何時候做任何事。實際上，因為每個交易者都是市場的變數，那麽可以說任何交易者都可以導致任何事情的發生。
This means that no matter how much you learn about the market’s behavior, no matter how brilliant an analyst you become, you will never learn enough to anticipate every possible way that the market can make you wrong or cause you to lose money. So if you are afraid of being wrong or losing money, it means you will never learn enough to compensate for the negative effects these fears will have on your ability to be objective and your ability to act without hesitation. In other words, you won’t be confident in the face of constant uncertainty. The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome. Unless you learn to completely accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome, you will try either consciously or unconsciously to avoid any possibility you define as painful. In the process, you will subject yourself to any number of self-generated, costly errors.
這意味著，不管你多麽了解市場行為，不管你的分析多麽優秀，你永遠不能學到足夠多的知識避免市場讓你犯錯或虧錢。所以，如果你害怕犯錯或虧錢，這意味著你無法學到足夠的知識以彌補恐懼對你的能力造成的消極影響，你就不會客觀，不會毫不猶豫地行動。換句話說，你在持續的不確定性麵前沒有信心。殘酷冰冷的交易就是指每筆交易都會產生不確定的收益。除非你學會完全接受了不確定收益的可能性，否則你就要有意識地或無意識地避免你所定義的痛苦的可能性。在這個過程中，你要為自己製造的昂貴的錯誤買單。
Now, I am not suggesting that we don’t need some form of market analysis or methodology to define opportunities and allow us to recognize them; we certainly do. However, market analysis is not the path to consistent results. It will not solve the trading problems created by lack of confidence, lack of discipline, or improper focus.
我並不是建議我們不需要市場分析，也不是不需要定義和認識機會的方法，我們當然是需要的。然而，市場分析不是通向持續一致收益的道路。它不能解決沒有自信、沒有紀律或不當的聚焦造成的交易問題。
When you operate from the assumption that more or better analysis will create consistency, you will be driven to gather as many market variables as possible into your arsenal of trading tools. But what happens then? You are still disappointed and betrayed by the markets, time and again, because of something you didn’t see or give enough consideration to. It will feel like you can’t trust the markets; but the reality is, you can’t trust yourself.
如果你認為更多或更好的分析會產生持續一致性並據此交易的話，你就被迫去收集盡量多的市場變數，並把它們作為你的交易工具。但結果如何？因為你錯過了一些東西或是沒有重視這些東西，你會一次又一次地對市場感到失望並感覺自己被市場出賣了。感覺是不能相信市場，但實際上是你不能相信自己。
Confidence and fear are contradictory states of mind that both stem from our beliefs and attitudes. To be confident, functioning in an environment where you can easily lose more than you intend to risk, requires absolute trust in yourself. However, you won’t be able to achieve that trust until you have trained your mind to override your natural inclination to think in ways that are counterproductive to being a consistently successful trader. Learning how to analyze the market’s behavior is simply not the appropriate training.
自信和恐懼都來自於我們的信念和態度，但它們是互相矛盾的思維。自信要求絕對相信自己，你有時候會因為自信而輕鬆地虧掉了比計劃中還要多的錢。如果你沒有持續一致成功交易者的思維，你就不能有這種自信。學習如何分析市場行為並不是恰當的訓練。
You have two choices: You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market variables as possible. (I call this the black hole of analysis because it is the path of ultimate frustration.) Or you can learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid.
你有兩個選擇：你可以通過學習盡量多的市場變數來消除風險（我稱之為分析的黑洞，因為它會通向最終的挫折）。或者是你學習如何重新定義你的交易行為，這樣你就能真正地接受風險，不再害怕風險。
When you’ve achieved a state of mind where you truly accept the risk, you won’t have the potential to define and interpret market information in painful ways. When you eliminate the potential to define market information in painful ways, you also eliminate the tendency to rationalize, hesitate, jump the gun, hope that the market will give you money, or hope that the market will save you from your inability to cut your losses.
一旦你達到了真正接受風險的思維狀態，那麽你就不會痛苦地定義和解讀市場信息了。當你不再痛苦地定義和解讀市場信息時，你同時也消除了這些傾向：找理由、猶豫、過早行動、希望市場給你錢、自己不會止損而希望市場能解救你。
As long as you are susceptible to the lands of errors that are the result of rationalizing, justifying, hesitating, hoping, and jumping the gun, you will not be able to trust yourself. If you can’t trust yourself to be objective and to always act in your own best interests, achieving consistent results will be next to impossible. Trying to do something that looks so simple may well be the most exasperating thing you will ever attempt to do. The irony is that, when you have the appropriate attitude, when you have acquired a “trader’s mind-set” and can remain confident in the face of constant uncertainty, trading will be as easy and simple as you probably thought it was when you first started out.
隻要你還因為找理由、找借口、猶豫、希望和過早行動等原因而犯錯時，你就無法做到相信自己。如果你不能相信自己能做到客觀，而且總是隨心所欲，那麽實現持續一致性的收益也是不可能的。盡量去做看起來簡單的事，結果會發現也許這是最煩人的事。諷刺的是，當你有了合適的態度，當你掌握了“交易者的思維狀態”，當你在持續的不確定性麵前能保持自信時，交易就會變得像你一開始時想的一樣輕鬆簡單。
So, what is the solution? You will need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear, but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless. That’s exactly what this book is designed to teach you.
那麽，解決方案是什麽？你將學習如何調整你的態度和信念，這樣你交易時就沒有一丁點的恐懼，但同時要定好大的原則，以防止你變得輕率。本書就是要教你這些東西。
As you move ahead, I would like you to keep something in mind. The successful trader that you want to become is a future projection of yourself that you have to grow into. Growth implies expansion, learning, and creating a new way of expressing yourself. This is true even if you’re already a successful trader and are reading this book to become more successful. Many of the new ways in which you will learn to express yourself will be in direct conflict with ideas and beliefs you presently hold about the nature of trading. You may or may not already be aware of some of these beliefs. In any case, what you currently hold to be true about the nature of trading will argue to keep things just the way they are, in spite of your frustrations and unsatisfying results.
當你往下讀時，我希望你記住一些東西。你想成為的成功的交易者是你對自己將來的投射。成長意味著擴大視野、學習、製造新的自我表達方式。如果你已經是成功的交易者了，閱讀本書會成為更成功的交易者，這是真的。你學習的很多自我表達的方法將和你現在交易中的思維和信念發生直接衝突。你也許意識到了，也許還沒有意識到這些信念。即使你遇到了挫折和不滿意的結果，你現在持有的關於市場本質的正確的信念也會大呼小叫地要求保持現狀。
These internal arguments are natural. My challenge in this book is to help you resolve these arguments as efficiently as possible. Your willingness to consider that other possibilities exist - possibilities that you may not be aware of or may not have given enough consideration to - will obviously make the learning process faster and easier.
這些內部的衝突是自然的，我寫作本書的任務就是幫助你有效地解決這些衝突。你相信還有其它可能性的存在會明顯地讓你的學習過程越來越快，越來越輕鬆。這裏的可能性指你不知道的或是你沒有足夠重視的可能性。
CHAPTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING
第02章 交易的誘惑（和危險）
In January 1994, I was asked to speak at a trading conference in Chicago, sponsored by Futures Magazine. At one of the luncheons I happened to be sitting next to an editor for one of the major publishers of books about trading. We were having a lively conversation about why so few people become successful at trading, even people who are otherwise very accomplished. At one point, the editor asked me if a possible explanation for this phenomenon might be that people were getting into trading for the wrong reasons.
1994年1月，有人邀請我到《期貨》雜誌在芝加哥舉辦的交易會議上演講。其中一次午餐時，我碰巧坐在一個大型的交易書出版公司的編輯旁邊。我們當時在激烈地討論，話題是即使人們在其它行業很有成就，為何很少有人能交易成功。當時編輯問我是不是人們因為錯誤的原因才進行交易的。
THE ATTRACTION
交易的吸引力
I had to pause for a moment to think about this. I agree that many of the typical reasons people are motivated to trade - the action, euphoria, desire to be a hero, the attention one can draw to himself by winning, or the self-pity that comes from losing - create problems that will ultimately detract from a trader’s performance and overall success. But the true underlying attraction to trading is far more fundamental and universal. Trading is an activity that offers the individual unlimited freedom of creative expression, a freedom of expression that has been denied most of us for most of our lives.
我當時得停下來想想。我同意很多人交易的主要理由是——交易行為本身、興奮、渴望成為英雄、通過賺錢引起別人的關注或是因為虧錢而自憐——這些理由都會產生問題，最終會破壞交易者的業績和總體成功。但是交易的吸引力是非常原始的，非常普遍的。交易是一種行為，它給個人提供了無限的創造性的自我表達的自由，我們大部分人在大部分時間會拒絕這種自我表達的自由。
Of course, the editor asked me what I meant by this. I explained that in the trading environment, we make almost all of the rules. This means there are very few restrictions or boundaries on how we can choose to express ourselves. Of course there are some formalities such as having to become a member of an exchange to be a floor trader, or meeting the minimum financial requirements to open a brokerage account if you’re an off-the-floor trader. But otherwise, once you are in a position to start trading, the possibilities that exist for how you go about doing it are virtually limitless.
當然了，這個編輯問我是什麽意思。我解釋說，關於交易的所有規章製度都已經定好了。這意味著我們想怎麽表達自己就怎麽表達自己，幾乎是沒有什麽限製的。當然了有些手續還是要辦的，比如如果想成為交易所的場內交易者是要辦手續的，你隻有滿足了最低資金要求才能到經紀公司開戶。但是，一旦你可以交易了，你就可以隨心所欲了。
I went on to give him an example from a seminar I attended several years ago. Someone had calculated that, if you combined bond futures, bond options, and the cash bond markets, there would be over eight billion possible spread combinations. Now add the timing considerations based on how you read the prevailing market conditions, and the various ways to trade become virtually limitless.
我繼續告訴他幾年前我參加的一個研討會上的例子。有人計算過，如果你綜合考慮債券期貨、債券期權和債券現貨，那麽它們會有80多億種價差組合。這時再加上你在觀察市場時做的各種決定，那麽交易的方法真的可以說是無限的。
The editor paused for a moment and asked, “But why would having access to such an unrestricted environment result in fairly consistent failure?” I answered, “Because unlimited possibilities coupled with the unlimited freedom to take advantage of those possibilities present the individual with unique and specialized psychological challenges, challenges that very few people are properly equipped to deal with, or have any awareness of for that matter, and people can’t exactly work on overcoming something if they don’t even know its a problem.”
這位編輯停下來想了一會兒，然後問：“為何在這個沒有限製的環境裏結果卻是持續的失敗呢？”我回答：“因為無限的可能性和無限的自由在一起給個人造成了獨特的專業的心理挑戰，隻有少數人能夠應付這種心理挑戰。如果人們根本不知道這是個問題，那麽他們就不知道要解決這個問題。”
The freedom is great. All of us seem to naturally want it, strive for it, even crave it. But that doesn’t mean that we have the appropriate psychological resources to operate effectively in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries and where the potential to do enormous damage to ourselves exists. Almost everyone needs to make some mental adjustments, regardless of their educational background, intelligence or how successful they’ve been in other endeavors.
自由是偉大的。我們天生都向往自由，為自由奮鬥，甚至渴望自由。但這並不意味著我們可以用不合適的心理在隻有一點點限製，卻有可能嚴重傷害我們的市場中操作。對於任何人，無論你的教育背景多麽好，無論你多麽聰明，無論你在其它行業幹的多麽成功，你都要做思維調整。
The kind of adjustments I’m talking about have to do with creating an internal mental structure that provides the trader with the greatest degree of balance between the freedom to do anything and the potential that exists to experience both the financial and psychological damage that can be a direct result of that freedom.
我說的調整是指形成內部心理結構，讓交易者在自由做任何事和自由帶來的對金錢和心理的破壞之間找到一個平衡。
Creating a mental structure can be difficult enough, especially if what you want to instill is in conflict with what you already believe. But for those of us who want to be traders, the difficulty of creating the appropriate structure is invariably compounded by a backlog of mental resistance that starts developing at the very earliest stages of our lives.
形成心理結構是很困難的，尤其是你要灌輸的思維和你早就相信的思維有衝突的時候。但是對於想成為交易者的我們來說，我們早年生活中形成的思維會嚴重阻礙我們形成合適的心理結構。
All of us are born into some sort of social environment. A social environment (or society), whether it’s a family, city, state, or country, implies the existence of structure. Social structures consist of rules, restrictions, boundaries, and a set of beliefs that become a code of behavior that limits the ways in which individuals within that social structure can or cannot express themselves. Furthermore, most of the limitations of social structure were established before we are born. In other words, by the time any of us get here, most of the social structure governing our individual expression is in place and well entrenched.
我們都出生在一定的社會環境中。社會環境（或社會），無論是家庭、城市、州或縣都包含了結構。社會結構包含了原則、限製、範圍，還有一係列信念，這些信念構成行為規範，行為規範限製社會中的人表達自己的程度。再說了，大部分社會結構的限製在我們出生之前就有了。換句話說，在我們所有人出生以前，大部分限製個人表達自己的社會結構就已經存在並層層包圍了我們。
It’s easy to see why a society’s need for structure and the individual’s need for self-expression can conflict. Every person who wants to master the art of trading faces just such a fundamental conflict.
很輕鬆地就可以看出為何社會的結構要求和個人自我表達的要求會衝突。任何想掌握交易藝術的人都會麵臨這個基本衝突。
I’d like you to ask yourself what one characteristic (a form of personal expression) is common to every child born on this planet, regardless of the location, culture, or social situation the child is born into. The answer is curiosity. Every child is curious. Every child is eager to learn. They can be described as little learning machines.
我想讓你問問自己，即使地點、文化或社會環境不一樣，所有新生小孩共同的特點（也是個人表達的一種）是什麽。答案是好奇心。每個小孩都會好奇，每個小孩都渴望認知，他們可以被描述為學習機器。
Consider the nature of curiosity. At its most fundamental level, it is a force. More specifically, it is an inner-directed force, which means there’s no necessity to motivate a child to learn something. Left on their own, children will naturally explore their surroundings. What is more, this inner-directed force also seems to have its own agenda; in other words, even though all children are curious, not all children are naturally curious about the same things.
想想好奇的本質。它是最基本的層次，是一種力量。更具體地說，它是內部力量，這意味著小孩並不需要動力就會去學習。如果沒有人管，小孩會自己去了解周圍的事物。而且，他們的內部力量似乎有自己的計劃表，換句話說，即使所有的小孩都有好奇心，但不是所有的小孩都對同樣的事情感到好奇。
There’s something inside each of us that directs our awareness. Even infants seem to know what they want and don’t want. When adults encounter this unique display of individuality expressed by an infant, they’re usually surprised. They assume that infants have nothing inside of them that makes them uniquely who they are. How else would infants express their individuality than by what in their environment attracts or repels them? I call this inner-directed guidance the force of natural attractions.
我們內部都有一些東西在指引我們的認知。即使是嬰兒也知道自己想要什麽，不想要什麽。當大人們看見嬰兒用自己獨特的方式表達自己，他們通常會吃驚。他們以為嬰兒不會有內在的東西來表達自己的獨特性。那麽嬰兒如何通過選擇他喜歡的或討厭的東西來表達自己的獨特性呢？我把這種內部指引叫做自然吸引物的力量。
Natural attractions are simply those things about which we feel a natural or passionate interest. Ours is a big and diverse world, and it offers each of us a great deal to learn about and experience. But that doesn’t mean each of us has a natural or passionate interest in learning about or experiencing all there is. There’s some internal mechanism that makes us “naturally selective.”
自然吸引物就是指我們很自然地就喜歡的東西或是特別地喜歡的東西。我們的好奇心是巨大多樣的世界，它讓我們學習並體驗很多東西。但這並不意味著我們每個人都對所有東西自然地或特別地感興趣。我們有內部的機械係統讓我們“自然地選擇”。
If you think about it, I’m sure you could list many things to do or be that you have absolutely no interest in. I know I could. You could also make another list of the things you are only marginally interested in. Finally, you could list everything you have a passionate interest in. Of course, the lists get smaller as the interest levels rise.
如果你能思考一下，我肯定你可以列出很多要做的事或你根本沒興趣的事。我知道我可以。你還可以列出你或多或少有點興趣的事。最後，你可以列出你特別感興趣的事。當然了，興趣的層次越高，列出來的東西就越少。
Where does passionate interest come from? My personal view is that it comes from the deepest level of our being - at the level of our true identity. It comes from the part of us that exists beyond the characteristics and personality traits we acquire as a result of our social upbringing.
特別的興趣來自哪裏？我個人覺得來自我們的內心深處——真我的水平。它不是來自我們的社會教養教會我們形成的特征和個性，而是來自更深處。
THE DANGERS
交易的危險之處
It is at the deepest level of our being that the potential for conflict exists. The social structure that we’re born into may or may not be sensitive to these inner-directed needs and interests. For example, you may have been born into a family of extremely competitive athletes, but feel a passionate interest in classical music or art. You may even have natural athletic ability, but no real interest in participating in athletic events. Is there any potential for conflict here?
在我們內心深處有潛在衝突的可能。我們出生時的社會結構對我們內部的需求和興趣也許沒有那麽敏感。比如，也許你出生在具有極度競爭性的運動員家庭，但是你對古典音樂或藝術特別有興趣。也許你天生有運動員的能力，但你對運動沒興趣。這算不算潛在的衝突？
In a typical family, most members would put a great deal of pressure on you to follow in the footsteps of your brothers, sisters, or parents. They do everything possible to teach you their ways and how to get the most out of your athletic ability. They discourage you from seriously pursuing any other interests. You go along with what they want, because you don’t want to be ostracized, but at the same time, doing what they want you to do just doesn’t feel right, although everything you’ve learned and been taught argues in favor of becoming an athlete. The problem is, it doesn’t feel like who you are.
在典型的家庭裏，大部分成員都會給你施加壓力，讓你跟隨哥哥、姐姐或父母的腳步。他們會力所能及地把自己的東西教給你，告訴你如何發揮最大潛能搞體育。他們反對你追求自己的其它興趣愛好。因為你不想被他們排斥，所以你按照他們的意思做；但同時，雖然你學習了對成為運動員有利的東西，但你覺得按照他們的意思做不妥。問題在於這不是你的本意。
The conflicts that result from what we’re taught about who we’re supposed to be and the feeling that resonates at the deepest levels of our being is not at all uncommon. I would say that many, if not most people, grow up in a family and cultural environment that gives little, if any, objective, nonjudgmental support to the unique ways in which we feel compelled to express ourselves.
別人教我們要成為什麽人和我們內心深處的感覺發生衝突，這是很常見的現象。我可以說很多人成長的家庭和文化環境很少給他們客觀的不帶偏見的支持，以讓他們表達自己。
This lack of support is not simply an absence of encouragement. It can be as deep as the outright denial of some particular way in which we want to express ourselves. For example, let’s look at a common situation: A toddler, who for the first time in his life, notices “this thing,” which we call a vase, on the coffee table. He is curious, which means there’s an inner force that’s compelling him to experience this object. In a sense, it’s as if this force creates a vacuum in his mind that has to be filled with the object of his interest. So, he focuses on the vase, and, with deliberate intent, crawls across the vast expanse of the living room floor to the coffee table. When he gets there, he reaches up to the edge of the table to pull himself to his feet. With one hand firmly on the table to maintain his balance, his other hand reaches out to touch this thing he has never experienced. Just at that moment, he hears a scream from across the room, “NO! DON’T TOUCH THAT!”
缺少這種支持並不是簡單的缺少鼓勵。它徹底地拒絕了我們表達自己的特殊方式。比如，讓我們看看一個普通現象：一個幼兒平生第一次注意到咖啡桌上我們叫做花瓶的“東西”。他很好奇，這意味著他的內部力量驅使他去體驗這個東西。從某種意義上說，就是這種力量在他的思想裏製造了一個真空，他必須用自己感興趣的東西填滿這個真空的空間。所以，他特意聚焦於這個花瓶，他從寬廣的臥室爬到咖啡桌。當他到了那裏，他扶著桌邊想努力站起來。一隻手抓著桌子維持平衡，另一隻手伸出去體驗從未體驗過的東西。就在此時，他聽見屋內一聲尖叫：“不！不準碰那個東西！”
Startled, the child falls back on his butt, and begins to cry. Obviously, this is a very common occurrence and one that is completely unavoidable. Children have absolutely no concept of how they can injure themselves or how valuable something like a vase can be. In fact, learning what is safe and what isn’t and the value of things are important lessons the child must learn. However, there are some extremely important psychological dynamics at work here that have a direct effect on our ability to create the kind of discipline and focus necessary to trade effectively later in life.
小孩被嚇到了，跌坐在地上開始哭。很明顯，這是很普通的經曆，也是完全無法避免的。小孩絕對沒有概念這會傷害到自己，也不知道花瓶這樣的東西有多麽昂貴。實際上，小孩必須學習什麽是安全的，什麽是不安全的，還要了解事物的價值，這是必須學習的重要課程。然而，有一些極度重要的心理波動起作用了，它直接影響了我們形成紀律和聚焦的能力，這些能力涉及到以後人生中有效地交易。
What happens when we’re denied the opportunity to express ourselves in the way we want to, or we’re forced to express ourselves in a way that doesn’t correspond with the natural selection process? The experience creates an upset. Being “up-set” implies an imbalance. But what exactly is out of balance? For something to be out of balance, there has to be something that’s in balance or in equal proportion in the first place. That something is the relative degree of correspondence that exists between our inner, mental environment and the exterior environment where we experience our lives.
如果我們表達自己的機會被拒絕了，或者我們被迫違背自己的意願去表達自己，結果會怎麽樣？這種經曆會讓人覺得難過，難過意味著不平衡。但究竟什麽是不平衡？如果要說不平衡，那麽就要先說什麽是平衡或是合適的。平衡就是在生活中我們內在的心理環境和外在的環境相對協調。
In other words, our needs and desires are generated in our mental environment, and they are fulfilled in the exterior environment. If these two environments are in correspondence with one another, we’re in a state of inner balance and we feel a sense of satisfaction or happiness. If these environments are not in correspondence, we experience dissatisfaction, anger, and frustration, or what is commonly referred to as emotional pain.
換句話說，我們思想環境製造的需求和欲望都被外部環境滿足了。如果這兩種環境互相協調持續一致，我們內心就是平衡的，我們就感到滿足或快樂。如果這兩種不協調持續一致，我們就感覺不滿、憤怒、受挫或是常說的情緒痛苦。
Now, why would not getting what we want or being denied the freedom to express ourselves in some particular way cause us to experience emotional pain? My personal theory is that needs and desires create mental vacuums. The universe in which we live has a natural tendency to not tolerate a vacuum and moves to fill it, whenever one exists. (The philosopher Spinoza observed centuries ago that, “Nature abhors a vacuum.”)
那麽，為什麽得不到我們想要的東西，或我們用特殊方式表達自己的自由被拒絕了就會經曆情緒痛苦呢？我個人的理論是需求和欲望製造了思想真空。我們所在的宇宙的自然傾向就是無法忍受真空，它會填補任何真空空間。（幾百年前的哲學家斯賓諾莎說：“自然厭惡真空”）
Suck the air out of a bottle and your tongue and lips will stick to the mouth of the bottle, because you have created an imbalance (a vacuum), which now must be filled. What are the dynamics behind the expression “Necessity is the mother of all invention”? The recognition that a need creates a mental vacuum that the universe will fill with inspiring thoughts (if your mind is receptive). The thoughts, in turn, can inspire movement and expression that result in the fulfillment of that need.
如果你用嘴吸出瓶子裏麵的空氣，那麽你的舌頭和嘴唇就緊緊粘在瓶口上，因為我們製造了不平衡（真空），所以要填補這種不平衡。“需求是一切發明的母親”，這句話後麵有什麽力量？這句話認同了需求會產生思想真空，而宇宙的本性就要用有趣的思想填補這個真空（前提是你的思想願意被填補）。需求被滿足後，思想反過來激發一些活動和表達方式。
In this respect, I think our mental environment works like the universe at large. Once we recognize a need or desire, we move to fill the vacuum with an experience in the exterior environment. If we are denied the opportunity to pursue the object of this need or desire, it literally feels as if we are not whole, or that something is missing, which puts us into a state of imbalance or emotional pain. (Do our minds also abhor a vacuum, once one has been created?)
從這個角度說，在廣義上我們的思想環境像宇宙一樣工作。一旦我們有了需求或欲望，我們通過外部環境的體驗以填補真空。如果我們追求這個需求和欲望的機會被拒絕了，我們就會覺得自己不完整，或缺少了什麽，這樣就導致我們感覺不平衡或情緒痛苦。（是不是在出生以後我們的思想就厭惡真空？）
Take a toy away from a child who is not finished playing with it (regardless of how good your reasons may be for doing so) and the universal response will be emotional pain.
當小孩還在玩玩具的時候把玩具拿走（不管你拿走的理由是多麽的好），普遍的反應就是情緒痛苦。
By the time we’re 18 years old, we’ve been on Earth approximately 6,570 days. On average, how many times per day does the typical child hear statements like:
當我們18歲時，我們已經在地球上生活了大概6570天。平均一天小孩要聽到多少次這樣的話：
“No, no, you can’t do that.”
“不，不，你不能做那個。”
“You can’t do it that way. You have to do it this way.”
“你不能那樣做，你必須這樣做。”
“Not now; let me think about it.”
“現在不行，讓我想想。”
“I’ll let you know.”
“我會讓你知道的。”
“It can’t be done.”
“那不行。”
“What makes you think you can do it?”
“你憑什麽以為你行？”
“You have to do it. You have no choice.”
“你必須做，你沒有選擇。”
These are just a few of the relatively nice ways in which all of us are denied individual expression as we grow up. Even if we only heard such statements once or twice a day, that still adds up to several thousand denials by the time we reach adulthood.
這是我們在成長過程中我們的自我表達被拒絕的少數比較優雅的方式。即使一天就聽到1，2次這樣的話，那麽當我們成人時，我們已經被拒絕了幾千次。
I call these lands of experiences “denied impulses” to learn - impulses that are based on an inner need, originating from the deeper part of our identity, from the natural selection process.
我把這些經曆叫做“被拒絕的學習動力”——動力來自我們的內部需求，是我們最深處的自我，是自然選擇的過程。
What happens to all of these impulses that have been denied and left unfulfilled? Do they just go away? They can, if they are reconciled in some way: if we do something, or someone else does something, to put our mental environment back into balance. What can put our mental environment back into balance? There are a number of techniques. The most natural one, especially for a child, is simply to cry.
如果所有的動力被拒絕了，都無法滿足，會如何？動力會消失嗎？如果用一定的方法協調，它們是可以消失的，方法有：我們做些什麽，或別人做些什麽以讓我們的思想環境恢複平衡。什麽會讓我們的思想環境恢複平衡呢？有一些技術是可以做到的。對小孩來說，最自然的技術就是簡簡單單地哭。
Crying is a natural mechanism (nature’s way) for reconciling these denied, unfulfilled impulses. Scientific researchers have found tears to be composed of negatively charged ions. If allowed to take its natural course, crying will expel the negatively charged energy in our minds and bring us back to a state of balance, even though the original impulse was never fulfilled.
哭是一種自然機械係統（自然方式），以協調被拒絕，沒有被滿足的動力。科學研究者發現眼淚含有負離子。即使原始的動力從沒有被實現過，如果讓自然選擇，哭會把我們思想裏的消極能量帶出來，讓我們恢複平衡狀態。
The problem is that, most of the time, events are not allowed to take their natural course and the denied impulses are never reconciled (at least, not while we’re still children). There are many reasons why adults don’t like it when their children (especially boys) cry, and do everything they can to discourage this behavior. There are just as many reasons why adults will not bother to explain to children why they are being forced to do something they don’t want to do. Even if adults do try, there are no assurances that they will be effective enough to reconcile the imbalance. What happens if these impulses aren’t reconciled?
問題是在大部分時間，事情的發生都不會是自然選擇的，而是被拒絕的動力永遠不會被實現（至少是我們小時候不會實現）。大人不喜歡看見小孩哭（尤其是男孩），要盡力去阻止他哭的原因很多。大人不願意向小孩解釋為什麽他們要被迫去做自己不想做的事的原因也很多。即使大人願意嚐試，也不能保證他們能有效地協調不平衡。如果這些動力沒有被協調，會如何？
They accumulate and usually end up manifesting themselves in any number of addictive and compulsive behavior patterns. A very loose rule of thumb is: Whatever we believe we were deprived of as children can easily become addictions in adulthood. For example, many people are addicted to attention. I am referring to people who will do most anything to draw attention to themselves. The most common reason for this is that they believe they either didn’t get enough attention when they were young or didn’t get it when it was important to them. In any case, the deprivation becomes unresolved emotional energy that compels them to behave in ways that will satisfy the addiction. What’s important for us to understand about these unreconciled, denied impulses (that exist in all of us) is how they affect our ability to stay focused and take a disciplined, consistent approach to our trading.
他們積累的結果是讓自己形成一係列上癮和強迫性的行為模式。簡單的原則是：我們成年後會對在兒童時期被剝奪的東西上癮。比如，很多人喜歡被別人關注。我是說很多人會盡力吸引別人的注意力。原因要麽是他們小時候沒有得到足夠的關注，要麽是他們覺得重要，但沒人關注他們。不管是哪個原因，這種剝奪成為未解的情緒能量，迫使他們想辦法以滿足這種癖好。我們搞明白這些不協調的，沒有實現的動力（我們每個人都有）是很重要的，因為它會影響我們在交易時保持專注、遵守紀律和采用持續一致的方法。
THE SAFEGUARDS
交易的安全措施
To operate effectively in the trading environment, we need rules and boundaries to guide our behavior. It is a simple fact of trading that the potential exists to do enormous damage to ourselves - damage that can be way out of proportion to what we may think is possible. There are many kinds of trades in which the risk of loss is unlimited. To prevent the possibility of exposing ourselves to damage, we need to create an internal structure in the form of specialized mental discipline and a perspective that guides our behavior so that we always act in our own best interests. This structure has to exist within each of us, because unlike society, the market doesn’t provide it.
要想有效地交易，我們需要原則和框架來指導我們的行為。簡單的事實就是交易有可能對我們造成巨大傷害——傷害超出了我們想象的範圍。有很多交易的風險是無窮大的。為了防止被傷害的可能，我們要通過建立特殊的思想紀律和認知的內部結構，以指導我們永遠按照對我們最有利的方式做事。我們每個人必須有這種結構，因為和社會不同，市場是不會提供給我們的。
The markets provide structure in the form of behavior patterns that indicate when an opportunity to buy or sell exists. But that’s where the structure ends - with a simple indication. Otherwise, from each individual’s perspective, there are no formalized rules to guide your behavior. There aren’t even any beginnings, middles, or endings as there are in virtually every other activity we participate in.
市場提供的結構就是行為模式，用來提示買賣機會。但這是結構的終點——僅僅是簡單的提示。然而，從個人的角度來說，並沒有確定的原則來指導你的行為。在我們參與的任何活動中都沒有開始點，中間點或結束點。
This is an extremely important distinction with profound psychological implications. The market is like a stream that is in constant motion. It doesn’t start, stop, or wait. Even when the markets are closed, prices are still in motion. There is no rule that the opening price on any day must be the same as the closing price the day before. Nothing we do in society properly prepares us to function effectively in such a “boundary-less” environment.
這和深奧的心理暗示有重大區別。市場像河流一樣不斷地波動。它不會開始，停止或等待。即使市場收盤了，價格還在波動。沒有規定說開盤價必須等於前一天的收盤價。我們在社會中學到的本事在這種“沒有限製”的環境裏是無能為力的。
Even gambling games have built-in structures that make them much different from trading, and a lot less dangerous. For example, if we decide to play blackjack, the first thing we have to do is decide how much we are going to wager or risk. This is a choice we are forced to make by the rules of the game. If we don’t make the choice, we don’t get to play.
即使是賭博的內部結構也和交易完全不同，賭博的危險小了很多。比如，如果我們想玩21點，首先我們會決定下多少賭注或決定風險是多少。根據這個遊戲的規則，我們可以做選擇。如果我們不做選擇，我們就不玩。
In trading, no one (except yourself) is going to force you to decide in advance what your risk is. In fact, what we have is a limitless environment, where virtually anything can happen at any moment and only the consistent winners define their risk in advance of putting on a trade. For everyone else, defining the risk in advance would force you to confront the reality that each trade has a probable outcome, meaning that it could be a loser. Consistent losers do almost anything to avoid accepting the reality that, no matter how good a trade looks, it could lose. Without the presence of an external structure forcing the typical trader to think otherwise, he is susceptible to any number of justifications, rationalizations, and the kind of distorted logic that will allow him to get into a trade believing that it can’t lose, which makes determining the risk in advance irrelevant.
在交易中，沒有人（除了你自己）會迫使你提前衡量風險是多少。實際上，我們的交易環境是沒有任何限製的，所以在任意時刻任何事都有可能發生。隻有持續一致的贏家才會在交易前衡量好風險。對於其他人來說，提前衡量風險迫使你承認每筆交易的結果隻是一種可能性，這筆交易可能會虧損。不管一筆交易看起來多麽好，這筆交易還是有可能以虧損收場，持續的輸家實在不願意接受這個現實。如果沒有外部結構迫使普通交易者改變思考模式，他就會受很多分析、解釋和歪曲邏輯的影響，去做肯定不會虧的交易，並以為提前衡量風險是沒有必要的。
All gambling games have specified beginnings, middles, and endings, based on a sequence of events that determine the outcome of the game. Once you decide you are going to participate, you can’t change your mind - you’re in for the duration. That’s not true of trading. In trading, prices are in constant motion, nothing begins until you decide it should, it lasts as long as you want, and it doesn’t end until you want it to be over. Regardless of what you may have planned or wanted to do, any number of psychological factors can come into play, causing you to become distracted, change your mind, become scared or overconfident: in other words, causing you to behave in ways that are erratic and unintended.
根據遊戲的過程及結果，所有的賭博都有具體的開始點、中間點和結束點。一旦你決定參與，你就不能改變主意——在這個過程中你在賭局內。交易則不一樣。在交易中，價格持續波動，根本沒有你想象的開始點，你想持續多長時間就能持續多長時間，如果你不想結束，它也不會結束。不管你是如何計劃的或怎麽想的，任何心裏因素都會在交易時期作用，導致你分心，改變想法，變得恐懼或過分自信：換句話說，導致你變得沒有原則，沒有意識。
Because gambling games have a formal ending, they force the participant to be an active loser. If you’re on a losing streak, you can’t keep on losing without making a conscious decision to do so. The end of each game causes the beginning of a new game, and you have to actively subject more of your assets to further risk by reaching into your wallet or pushing some chips to the center of the table.
因為賭博有正規的結束時間，它們迫使參與者成為活躍的輸家。如果你發現自己在持續輸錢，此時你隻要決定不賭了，你就不會再輸錢了。每個賭局的結束就是一個新賭局的開始，你必須把手伸進口袋去拿錢包或者把更多的籌碼推到桌子中間，此時你知道你又在用資金冒險了。
Trading has no formal ending. The market will not take you out of a trade. Unless you have the appropriate mental structure to end a trade in a manner that is always in your best interest, you can become a passive loser. This means that, once you’re in a losing trade, you don’t have to do anything to keep on losing. You don’t even have to watch. You can just ignore the situation, and the market will take everything you own - and more.
交易沒有正式的結束點，市場不會讓你退出交易。除非你有合適的心理結構能讓你及時退出交易，以盡量保護自己的利益，否則你就是消極的輸家。這意味著，一旦你的交易不利，你不問理由地自動止損，你甚至不用再觀察了。如果你在此時對不利的交易置之不理，市場會拿走你的一切——甚至更多。
One of the many contradictions of trading is that it offers a gift and a curse at the same time. The gift is that, perhaps for the first time in our lives, we’re in complete control of everything we do. The curse is that there are no external rules or boundaries to guide or structure our behavior. The unlimited characteristics of the trading environment require that we act with some degree of restraint and self-control, at least if we want to create some measure of consistent success. The structure we need to guide our behavior has to originate in your mind, as a conscious act of free will. This is where the many problems begin.
交易有很多矛盾的地方，其中一個矛盾是它同時提供了禮物和詛咒。禮物是，也許這是有生以來我們第一次能完全控製所有的事。詛咒是，沒有外部的原則、框架指導或結構來規範我們的行為。如果我們想找到一些持續一致成功的方法，我們就要用一定程度的克製和自控來麵對交易環境無數的特點。指導我們行為的結構來自我們的思維，是自覺的自由意識。這樣就產生了很多問題。
PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules
問題：不願意製定原則
I have not yet encountered a person interested in trading who didn’t resist the notion of creating a set of rules. The resistance isn’t always overt. Quite the contrary, it’s usually very subtle. We agree on the one hand that rules make sense, but we really have no intention of doing whatever is being suggested. This resistance can be intense, and it has a logical source.
我發現對交易感興趣的人都拒絕製定原則，隻是這種拒絕沒那麽明顯。相反，通常很微妙。一方麵我們都同意原則很有用，另一方麵我們都不想按照建議去做。大家都拒絕是有邏輯原因的。
Most of the structure in our minds was given to us as a result of our social upbringing and based on choices made by other people. In other words, it was instilled in our minds, but did not originate in our minds. This is a very important distinction. In the process of instilling structure, many of our natural impulses to move, express, and learn about the nature of our existence through our own direct experience were denied. Many of these denied impulses were never reconciled and still exist inside of us as frustration, anger, disappointment, guilt, or even hatred. The accumulation of these negative feelings acts as a force inside our mental environment causing us to resist anything that denies us the freedom to do and be whatever we want, when we want.
社會教育方式和別人的選擇造就了我們大部分人的思想結構。換句話說，它是灌輸給我們的，不是我們的思想自己產生的。這是很重要的差別。在給我們灌輸結構的過程中，我們很多天生的動力、自我表達和通過直接體驗認識自然等方式都被拒絕了。很多被拒絕的動力永遠不會被實現，但在我們體內存在著，從而轉化成為受挫、憤怒、失望、罪過甚至是憎惡等感受。這些消極感受積累過多會迫使我們內部心理環境發生變化，導致我們拒絕不讓我們自由自在想怎麽樣就怎麽樣的任何事物。
In other words, the very reason we are attracted to trading in the first place - the unlimited freedom of creative expression - is the same reason we feel a natural resistance to creating the kinds of rules and boundaries that can appropriately guide our behavior. It’s as if we have found a Utopia in which there is complete freedom, and then someone taps us on the shoulder and says, “Hey, you have to create rules, and not only that, you also have to have the discipline to abide by them.”
換句話說，交易最初吸引我們的原因是——創造性地自我表達的無限自由——我們自然地拒絕製定指導我們行為的原則和框架是同樣的原因。就好像我們發現了一個烏托邦，在裏麵有絕對的自由，然後有人拍著你的肩膀說：“嘿，你要製定原則，不僅如此，你還要遵守紀律。”
The need for rules may make perfect sense, but it can be difficult to generate the motivation to create these rules when we’ve been trying to break free of them most of our lives. It usually takes a great deal of pain and suffering to break down the source of our resistance to establishing and abiding by a trading regime that is organized, consistent, and reflects prudent money-management guidelines.
製定原則是合理的要求，但是當我們大部分時間都在盡力脫離原則的時候，確實沒有動力去製定原則。一般需要承受很多痛苦和折磨才能從我們自身的拒絕中突破，然後去建立交易王國所需要的條理性、持續一致性、謹慎的資金管理原則。
Now, I’m not implying that you have to reconcile all of your past frustrations and disappointments to become a successful trader, because that’s not the case. And you certainly don’t have to suffer. I’ve worked with many traders who have achieved their objectives of consistency and haven’t done anything to reconcile their backlog of denied impulses. However, I am implying that you can’t take for granted how much effort and focus you may have to put into building the kind of mental structure that compensates for the negative effect denied impulses can have on your ability to establish the skills that will assure your success as a trader.
我並不是暗示你為了成為成功的交易者就要處理好過去的受挫和失望心態。當然了你不必讓自己痛苦。我和很多交易者溝通過，他們都實現了持續一致性的目標，但他們並沒有理會過去被拒絕的很多動力。我是說你並不能想當然地決定多少努力或聚焦可以讓你形成心理結構以抵消被拒絕的動力的消極影響，以防止你沒有能力學習學到成功交易者的技術。
PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility
問題：不負責任
Trading can be characterized as a pure, unencumbered personal choice with an immediate outcome. Remember, nothing happens until we decide to start; it lasts as long as we want; and it doesn’t end until we decide to stop. All of these beginnings, middles, and endings are the result of our interpretation of the information available and how we choose to act on our interpretation. Now, we may want the freedom to make choices, but that doesn’t mean we are ready and willing to accept the responsibility for the outcomes. Traders who are not ready to accept responsibility for the outcomes of their interpretations and actions will find themselves in a dilemma: How does one participate in an activity that allows complete freedom of choice, and at the same time avoid taking responsibility if the outcome of one’s choices are unexpected and not to one’s liking?
交易的特征是純粹的，沒有阻礙的，很快就能出結果的個人選擇。記住，如果我們不想開始，交易就不會開始；我們想持續多久就會持續多久；如果我們不想停止，它就不會停止。我們自己解讀信息並按照自己的理解去交易，所以所有的開始點，中間點和結束點都是我們決定的。現在，我們可以自由地做選擇，但這並不意味著我們已經準備好了，也不意味著我們願意對結果負責。對自己的解讀和行動結果還沒有負責態度的交易者會進入兩難境地：你有完全的自由，如果你所做的決定導致的結果是你不想要的，你該如何推卸責任？
The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to start from the premise that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible. This is a level of responsibility few people have aspired to before they decide to become traders. The way to avoid responsibility is to adopt a trading style that is, to all intents and purposes, random. I define random trading as poorly-planned trades or trades that are not planned at all. It is an unorganized approach that takes into consideration an unlimited set of market variables, which do not allow you to find out what works on a consistent basis and what does not.
交易的現實就是這麽難，如果你想產生持續一致性，你必須從這個前提開始：無論結果是什麽，你都要完全負責。在決定成為交易者之前，大部分人都不知道要承擔這種責任。避免負責任的交易風格就是一心追求任意性。我把任意交易定義為計劃糟糕的交易或是根本沒有計劃的交易。考慮到市場有無限的變數，這種方法就是沒有條理性，這樣你就不知道如何實現持續一致性。
Randomness is unstructured freedom without responsibility. When we trade without well-defined plans and with an unlimited set of variables, it’s very easy to take credit for the trades that turn out to our liking (because there was “some” method present). At the same time, it’s very easy to avoid taking responsibility for the trades that didn’t turn out the way we wanted (because there’s always some variable we didn’t know about and therefore couldn’t take into consideration beforehand).
任意就是不負責任的無結構自由。市場有無限的變數，當我們沒有做好計劃就交易時，我們很輕鬆地以為這筆交易會賺錢（因為有一些現成的方法）。同時，如果交易結果不是我們想象的那樣，我們可以很輕鬆地逃避責任（因為總是有我們不知道的變數，我們無法提前考量）。
If the markets behavior were truly random, then it would be difficult if not impossible to create consistency. If it’s impossible to be consistent, then we really don’t have to take responsibility. The problem with this logic is that our direct experience of the markets tells us something different. The same behavior patterns present themselves over and over again. Even though the outcome of each individual pattern is random, the outcome of a series of patterns is consistent (statistically reliable). This is a paradox, but one that is easily resolved with a disciplined, organized, and consistent approach.
如果市場的行為真的是隨機的，那麽產生持續一致性真的很難。如果不可能實現持續一致性，那麽我們就不必負責任。我們在市場的親身體驗告訴我們這個邏輯有問題。同樣的行為模式一次又一次地出現。即使每個模式的結果是隨機的，一係列模式的結果則是持續一致的（有可靠的統計數據證明這點）。這是一種似非而是，交易者可以通過紀律、條理和持續一致的方法來實現持續一致性。
I’ve worked with countless traders who would spend hours doing market analysis and planning trades for the next day. Then, instead of putting on the trades they planned, they did something else. The trades they did put on were usually ideas from friends or tips from brokers. I probably don’t have to tell you that the trades they originally planned, but didn’t act on, were usually the big winners of the day. This is a classic example of how we become susceptible to unstructured, random trading - because we want to avoid responsibility.
我和無數交易者溝通過，他們願意每天花幾個小時分析市場，為第二天做交易計劃。然而他們卻沒有按照計劃交易，而是做了其它交易。通常是朋友的想法或經紀人的消息讓他們改變了交易計劃。我可以這麽說，他們原先計劃的，但沒有實行的交易通常是賺錢的交易。這是典型的例子，說明為什麽我們容易受沒有組織的隨機的交易影響——因為我們不想負責任。
When we act on our own ideas, we put our creative abilities on the line and we get instant feedback on how well our ideas worked. It’s very difficult to rationalize away any unsatisfactory results. On the other hand, when we enter an unplanned, random trade, it’s much easier to shift the responsibility by blaming the friend or the broker for their bad ideas.
當我們自己交易時，我們用創造性的能力在旁邊監視著，我們自己很快就能知道我們的思路對不對。對於不滿意的結果，為其辯護是困難的。另外，當我們進行了沒有計劃，任意的交易，可以簡單地通過責怪朋友或經紀人的壞主意來推卸責任。
There’s something else about the nature of trading that makes it easy to escape the responsibility that comes with creating structure in favor of trading randomly: It is the fact that any trade has the potential to be a winner, even a big winner. That big winning trade can come your way whether you are a great analyst or a lousy one; whether you do or don’t take responsibility. It takes effort to create the kind of disciplined approach that is necessary to become a consistent winner. But, as you can see, it’s very easy to avoid this kind of mental work in favor of trading with an undisciplined, random approach.
還有一些其它東西讓你輕鬆地逃避責任，那就是任意交易：事實上任何一筆交易都有可能賺錢，甚至是大賺。無論你是偉大的分析師，還是懶惰的人，無論你是否願意負責任，賺大錢的交易都有可能發生在你身上。要想成為持續一致的贏家，掌握有紀律的方法是需要努力的。但是，你也能看見，沒有紀律，任意交易的方法更輕鬆，不必努力。
PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards
問題：對隨機回報感到上癮
Several studies have been done on the psychological effects of random rewards on monkeys. For example, if you teach a monkey to do a task and consistently reward it every time the task is done, the monkey quickly learns to associate a specific outcome with the efforts. If you stop rewarding it for doing the task, within a very short period of time the monkey will simply stop doing the task. It won’t waste its energy doing something that it has now learned it won’t be rewarded for.
有人用猴子做了研究，以觀察隨機回報對心理的影響。比如，如果你教猴子完成任務，隻要任務完成了就給它回報，猴子很快就明白了隻要努力做事就有回報。如果猴子完成了任務，你不給它回報，猴子很快就不會去做事了。它已經知道是沒有回報的，它就不會再浪費精力了。
However, the monkey’s response to being cut off from the reward is very different if you start out on a purely random schedule, instead of a consistent one. When you stop offering the reward, there’s no way the monkey can know that it will never be rewarded again for doing that task. Every time it was rewarded in the past, the reward came as a surprise. As a result, from the monkey’s perspective, there’s no reason to quit doing the task. The monkey keeps on doing the task, even without being rewarded for doing it. Some will continue indefinitely.
然而，如果你采用隨機的方式回報猴子，猴子的反應是不同的。當你停止回報猴子，猴子也不知道是否下次完成了任務有回報。每次回報都成了驚喜。結果，從猴子的角度來看，沒有理由不完成任務。即使沒有回報，猴子也要繼續完成任務。有些猴子會永遠做下去。
I’m not sure why we’re susceptible to becoming addicted to random rewards. If I had to guess, I would say that it probably has something to do with the euphoria - inducing chemicals that are released in our brains when we experience an unexpected, pleasant surprise. If a reward is random, we never know for sure if and when we might receive it, so expending energy and resources in the hope of experiencing that wonderful feeling of surprise again isn’t difficult. In fact, for many people it can be very addicting. On the other hand, when we expect a particular outcome and it doesn’t come about, we’re disappointed and feel bad. If we do it again and get the same disappointing outcome, it isn’t likely that we will keep doing something we know will cause us emotional pain.
我不明白為何我們會受隨機回報的影響。如果必須猜一下，我想可能和過度興奮有關係——包括當我們體驗了意外的驚喜時大腦釋放的化學物質。如果回報是隨機的，我們永遠不知道何時得到回報，很自然就盡量等待體驗下一次驚喜的美好感覺。很多人會為此上癮。另外一麵，當我們沒有等到結果時，我們感到失望和不爽。如果我們再做一次，得到了同樣的失望結果，我們不太可能繼續做讓我們感到情緒痛苦的事。
The problem with any addiction is that it leaves us in a state of “choicelessness.” To whatever degree the addiction dominates our state of mind, to that same degree our focus and efforts will be geared toward fulfilling the object of that addiction. Other possibilities that exist in any given moment to fulfill other needs (like the need to trust ourselves and not to subject too many of our assets to risk) are either ignored or dismissed. We feel powerless to act in any other way than to satisfy the addiction. An addiction to random rewards is particularly troublesome for traders, because it is another source of resistance to creating the kind of mental structure that produces consistency.
上癮會導致我們處於“沒有選擇”的混亂狀態。到了一定程度癮症控製了我們的思維，我們的焦點和努力都是為了實現癮症的目標。我們忽略了其它需求（比如要相信自己，不要用太多的資金去冒險）。除了滿足癮症，我們別無他法。對隨機回報上癮是交易者特別麻煩的事，因為它阻礙了形成心理結構，無法實現持續一致性。
PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control
問題：外部控製和內部控製
Our upbringing has programmed us to function in a social environment, which means we’ve acquired certain thinking strategies for fulfilling our needs, wants and desires that are geared toward social interaction. Not only have we learned to depend on each other to fulfill the needs, wants and desires we cannot fulfill completely on our own, but in the process we’ve acquired many socially-based controlling and manipulating techniques for assuring that other people behave in a manner that is consistent with what we want.
我們是在社會環境中長大的，這意味著我們實現需求、願望和欲望的思維策略都和社會掛鉤。我們不但學會了互相依靠以滿足我們個人無法實現的需求、願望和欲望，而且在這個過程中我們學會了管理技術和操控技術，讓別人按照我們的意思辦事。
The markets may seem like a social endeavor because there are so many people involved, but they’re not. If, in today’s modern society, we have learned to depend on each other to fulfill basic needs, then the market environment (even though it exists in the midst of modern society) can be characterized as a psychological wilderness, where it’s truly every man or woman for himself or herself.
市場看起來像社會，因為裏麵有很多人，但實際不是的。如果說在現代社會，我們學習互相依靠以滿足基本需求，那麽市場環境（即使它存在於現代社會）的特點就是心理狂野，每個人都是為了自己。
Not only can we not depend on the market to do anything for us, but it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to manipulate or control anything that the market does. Now, if we’ve become effective at fulfilling our needs, wants and desires by learning how to control and manipulate our environment, but suddenly find ourselves, as traders, in an environment that does not know, care, or respond to anything that is important to us, where does that leave us? You’re right if you said up the proverbial creek without a paddle.
我們不但不能指望市場為我們做什麽，而且也不能控製市場，或者說很難控製市場。如果說我們通過學習如何控製和應付我們的環境有效地滿足了我們的需求、願望和欲望，但突然發現我們處於一個環境，這個環境對於我們認為重要的東西采取不知、不管或不理的態度，我們該怎麽辦？你說對了，這是逆流而上。
One of the principal reasons so many successful people have failed miserably at trading is that their success is partly attributable to their superior ability to manipulate and control the social environment, to respond to what they want. To some degree, all of us have learned or developed techniques to make the external environment conform to our mental (interior) environment. The problem is that none of these techniques work with the market. The market doesn’t respond to control and manipulation (unless you’re a very large trader).
很多成功人士在交易時慘敗的一個主要原因是他們的操控權術隻適用於社會環境，不適用於市場。從某種程度上說，我們都學到了一些技術，以讓外部環境和我們的心理（內部）環境協調一致。問題是這些技術在市場中都沒用。市場不理會你的操控能力（很大的大戶例外）。
However, we can control our perception and interpretation of market information, as well as our own behavior. Instead of controlling our surroundings so they conform to our idea of the way things should be, we can learn to control ourselves. Then we can perceive information from the most objective perspective possible, and structure our mental environment so that we always behave in a manner that is in our own best interest.
然而，我們可以控製我們對市場信息的認知和理解，我們也可以控製我們的行為。我們不要控製周圍環境讓它們適應我們的想法，我們可以學習如何控製自己。這樣我們就可以用最客觀的方法認知信息並組織我們的心理環境，這樣我們就能用最有利的方式操作。
CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY
第03章 自己承擔責任
Although the words “taking responsibility” sound simple, the concept is neither easy to grasp nor easy to put into practice in your trading. We have all heard the words and been confronted with the need to take responsibility so many times in our lives that it is easy to take for granted that we know exactly what the phrase means.
雖然“自己承擔責任”聽起來簡單，但在交易時這個概念既難掌握，又難執行。這種說法，我們在生活中聽到了很多次，也麵對了要自己承擔責任的時候，所以我們以為我們理解這句話的含義。
Taking responsibility in your trading and learning the appropriate principles of success are inextricably connected. You have to understand, with every fiber of your being, the ways in which you are and are not responsible for your success as a trader. Only then can you take on the characteristics that will allow you to join the select group of traders who are consistently successful in the markets.
在交易時自己承擔責任和采用合適的成功原則是緊密聯係的。你必須明白，你的一絲一毫，一舉一動都需要你自己承擔責任才能成為成功的交易者。隻有你做到了自己承擔責任，你才能在市場中成為持續一致的贏家並和持續一致的贏家站在一起。
At the end of Chapter 1, I introduced the idea of stepping into a future projection of yourself. In other words, the consistently successful trader that you want to become doesn’t exist yet. You must create a new version of yourself, just as a sculptor creates a likeness of a model.
在第01章的末尾，我提到了走入自己未來的投影。換句話說，你想成為持續一致的贏家，但現在還不是。就像雕塑家雕塑一樣，你必須塑造一個新版本的你。
SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT
塑造你的心理環境
The tools you will use to create this new version of yourself are your willingness and desire to learn, fueled by your passion to be successful. If the willingness and desire to learn are your primary tools, then what is your medium? An artist creating a sculpture can choose to work in a number of mediums - clay, marble, or metal, for example - but if you want to create a new version of your personality that expresses itself as a consistently successful trader, you have only your beliefs and attitudes. The medium for your artistic endeavor will be your mental environment, where with your desire to learn, you can restructure and install the beliefs and attitudes that are necessary to achieve your ultimate goal.
要塑造一個新版本的你，所需要的工具就是你學習的欲望和渴望成功的激情。如果說學習的欲望和渴望成功的激情是基本的工具，那麽什麽是中間的工具？對於雕塑家來說，他的中間工具是黏土、大理石、金屬等等——但是對於未來的持續一致的成功交易者來說，你的中間工具是你的信念和態度。你的信念和態度組成了你的心理環境，再加上學習的欲望，你就把它們變成了能實現最終目標的信念和態度。
I am assuming your ultimate goal is consistency. If you’re like most traders, you don’t realize the fullest potential of the opportunities available to you. To realize more and more of that potential, to make it more and more of a reality in your life, your primary goal has to be to learn how to think like a consistently successful trader.
我假定你的最終目標是持續一致性。如果你和大部分交易者一樣，那麽你暫時還不知道機會帶給你的最大潛能是什麽。要想了解更多的潛能，要想把更多的潛能變成現實，你的基本目標就是學習如何像持續一致性的成功交易者一樣思考。
Remember, the best traders think in a number of unique ways. They have acquired a mental structure that allows them to trade without fear and, at the same time, keeps them from becoming reckless and committing fear-based errors. This mind-set has a number of components, but the bottom line is that successful traders have virtually eliminated the effects of fear and recklessness from their trading. These two fundamental characteristics allow them to achieve consistent results.
記住，最優秀的交易者有很多獨特的思考方式。他們已經形成的心理結構可以讓他們在交易時沒有恐懼，不會輕率，也不會因為恐懼而犯錯。這種思維有很多特點，但最關鍵的是成功的交易者不恐懼，不輕率。這兩個基本的特點能幫助他們實現持續一致性的收益。
When you acquire this mind-set, you, too, will be able to trade without fear. You will no longer be susceptible to the multitude of fear-based errors that come from rationalizing, subconsciously distorting information, hesitating, jumping the gun, or hoping. Once the fear is gone, there just won’t be a reason to make these errors and, as a result, they will virtually disappear from your trading.
一旦你有了這樣的思維，你在交易時也不會恐懼。找理由、下意識地扭曲信息、猶豫、行動過早或期望等恐懼心理就不會再影響你了。一旦恐懼消失了，再也沒有理由犯錯了，結果就是你再也不恐懼了。
However, eliminating fear is only half the equation. The other half is the need to develop restraint. Excellent traders have learned that it is essential to have internal discipline or a mental mechanism to counteract the negative effects of euphoria or the overconfidence that comes from a string of winning trades. For a trader, winning is extremely dangerous if you haven’t learned how to monitor and control yourself.
然而，消除恐懼隻是走了一半的路，另外一半路就是形成克製。優秀的交易者已經明白了要用內部紀律或心理機械係統對付過度興奮或因一連串贏利引起的過度自信產生的消極影響。對於交易者來說，如果你不知道如何監視和控製自己，贏利是超級危險的。
If we start from the premise that to create consistency traders must focus their efforts on developing a trader’s mind-set, then it is easy to see why so many traders don’t succeed. Instead of learning to think like traders, they think about how they can make more money by learning about the markets. It’s almost impossible not to fall into this trap. There are a number of psychological factors that make it very easy to assume that it’s what you don’t know about the markets that causes your losses and lack of consistent results.
如果我們在一開始就知道持續一致的交易者必須有正確的思維，那麽就容易知道為什麽很多交易者失敗了。他們沒有學習像交易者一樣思考，他們想的是如何通過了解市場賺錢，大部分人都會掉入這個陷阱。很多心理因素都會讓你很容易地相信因為你不了解市場才虧損的，所以你無法得到持續一致的收益。
However, that’s just not the case. The consistency you seek is in your mind, not in the markets. It’s attitudes and beliefs about being wrong, losing money, and the tendency to become reckless, when you’re feeling good, that cause most losses - not technique or market knowledge.
然而並非如此。你尋求的持續一致性在你的思維裏，不是在市場裏。當你感覺很好的時候，犯錯，虧損的態度和信念加上你輕率的傾向常常導致虧損——不是因為你不懂技術，也不是因為你沒有市場知識。
For example, if you could choose one of the following two traders to manage your money, which one would you pick? The first trader uses a simple, possibly even mediocre trading technique, but possesses a mind-set that is not susceptible to subconsciously distorting market information, hesitating, rationalizing, hoping, or jumping the gun. The second trader is a phenomenal analyst, but is still operating out of the typical fears that make him susceptible to all of the psychological maladies that the other trader is free of. The right choice should be obvious. The first trader is going to achieve far better results with your money.
假如讓你從下麵兩個交易者裏麵選一個幫你管理資金，你會選擇哪個？第一個交易者采用簡單的，甚至是普通的交易技術，但是他不會下意識地扭曲市場信息，猶豫，找理由或過早行動。第二個交易者是著名的分析師，但是容易受所有交易心理疾病的影響。正確的選擇很明顯，第一個交易者將會取得比較好的收益。
Attitude produces better overall results than analysis or technique. Of course, the ideal situation is to have both, but you really don’t need both, because if you have the right attitude - the right mind-set - then everything else about trading will be relatively easy, even simple, and certainly a lot more fun. I know for some of you this may be difficult to believe, or even distressing especially if you’ve been struggling for years to learn everything you can about the market.
總體而言，態度比分析或技術更能產生比較好的結果。當然，理想狀態是擁有兩者，但你並沒有必要擁有兩者，因為如果你有正確的態度——正確的思維——那麽交易的所有方麵都會變得相對輕鬆，簡單，當然更有趣。我知道有些人很難相信這個說法，特別是你掙紮了很多年去研究市場的方方麵麵，你會覺得這個說法讓你痛苦，難以接受。
Interestingly, most traders are closer to the way they need to think when they first begin trading than at any other time in their careers. Many people begin trading with a very unrealistic concept of the inherent dangers involved. This is particularly true if their first trade is a winner. Then they go into the second trade with little or no fear. If that trade is a winner, they go into the next trade with even less concern for what would otherwise be the unacceptable possibility of a loss. Each subsequent win convinces them that there is nothing to fear and that trading is the easiest possible way to make money.
有趣的是，大部分交易者在開始交易之前似乎都知道要如何思考。很多人在剛開始交易時風險是很大的，但是他們並不知道。如果他們第一次賺錢了，他們膽子更大。然後他們第二次交易時就不怎麽害怕了。如果第二次還是賺錢的，那麽第三次交易時他們不再關心無法接受的虧損發生的可能性。每次賺錢都讓他們確信沒有什麽好怕的，交易賺錢太輕鬆了。
This lack of fear translates into a carefree state of mind, similar to the state of mind many great athletes describe as a “zone.” If you’ve ever had the occasion to experience the zone in some sport, then you know it is a state of mind in which there is absolutely no fear and you act and react instinctively. You don’t weigh alternatives or consider consequences or second-guess yourself. You are in the moment and “just doing it.” Whatever you do turns out to be exactly what needed to be done.
無所畏懼變成了思想上的無憂無慮，這和很多優秀運動員說的“狀態”很相似。如果你在體育方麵偶爾經曆過這種狀態，那麽你就明白狀態是指在思想上絕對沒有恐懼感，你自動地行動或反應。你根本不考慮其它可能性，不考慮後果，也不做預測。你的思想就是“盡管去做”。不管你做什麽，那正是你要做的。
Most athletes never reach this level of play, because they never get past the fear of making a mistake. Athletes who reach the point where there is absolutely no fear of the consequences of screwing up will usually, and quite spontaneously, enter into “the zone.” By the way, a psychological zone is not a condition you can will yourself into, the way you can will yourself into a feat of endurance. It is a state of mind you find yourself in that is inherently creative, and usually if you start thinking about your actions at a rational or conscious level, you pop right out of it.
大部分運動員永遠不會達到這個水平，因為他們無法逾越害怕犯錯這個心理。絕對不害怕或不擔心犯錯的運動員通常會進入“這種狀態”。順便說一下，“心理狀態”不是你想象自己有能力那麽簡單。這種思想狀態是天生的創造力，如果你為你的行動下意識地找理由，你就不算進入了這種狀態。
Even though you cannot force or will yourself into a zone, you can set up the kind of mental conditions that are most conducive to experiencing “the zone,” by developing a positive winning attitude. I define a positive winning attitude as expecting a positive result from your efforts, with an acceptance that whatever results you get are a perfect reflection of your level of development and what you need to learn to do better.
即使你不能迫使或想象自己進入了這種狀態，你可以通過贏家的態度來建立一種心理狀態以體驗 “這種狀態”。贏家的態度就是指通過努力期待積極的結果，同時承認無論結果如何，那都是你自己發展水平和學習進步的完美反映。
That’s what the great athletes have: a winning attitude that allows them to easily move beyond their mistakes and keep going. Others get bogged down in negative self-criticism, regret, and self-pity. Not many people ever develop a positive winning attitude. The curious anomaly of trading is that, if you start with a winning trade, you will automatically experience the kind of carefree mind-set that is a by-product of a winning attitude, without having developed the attitude itself. I know this may sound a bit confusing, but it has some profound implications.
優秀的運動員擁有贏家的態度，他們可以輕鬆地麵對錯誤並繼續前進。其他人因為自責、後悔和自憐的消極心理而停滯不前。大多數人無法形成贏家的態度。交易的反常現象是，如果你一開始就有贏家的態度，你會自動地進入無憂無慮的思想狀態，這是贏家態度的副產品。我知道這聽起來有點頭昏，但有深刻的含義。
If a few winning trades can cause you to enter into the kind of carefree state of mind that is an essential component to your success, but is not founded on the appropriate attitudes, then what you have is a prescription for extreme misunderstanding about the nature of trading that inevitably results in both emotional and financial disaster.
如果幾次賺錢的交易讓你進入對成功很關鍵的無憂無慮的思想狀態，但是你的態度又不正確，那麽你就會對交易的本質產生誤解，最終會導致情緒和金錢災難。
Putting on a few (or more) winning trades does not mean you have become a trader, but that’s the way it feels, because it taps us into a state of mind that only the most accomplished people experience on a consistent basis. The fact is, you don’t need the slightest bit of skill to put on a winning trade, and if it’s possible to put on one winning trade without the slightest bit of skill, it is certainly possible to put on another and another. I know of several people who started their trading careers with fairly substantial strings of winning trades.
幾筆（或多筆）交易賺錢不代表你就是交易者了，但感覺是自己就是交易者了，因為它讓我們進入到隻有最有成就的人才能體會到的思想狀態。事實上，你不需要任何技術都能交易賺錢，如果你不需要任何技術都能交易賺錢，那麽你當然可以再交易幾筆。我知道一些人，他們剛開始交易時連續很多筆都是賺錢的。
When you’re feeling confident and unencumbered by fears and worries, it isn’t difficult to put on a string of winning trades because it’s easy to get into a flow, a kind of natural rhythm, where what you need to do seems obvious or self-evident. It’s almost as if the market screams at you when to buy and when to sell, and you need very little in the way of analytical sophistication. And, of course, because you have no fear, you can execute your trades with no internal argument or conflict.
因為當你感覺自信，不受恐懼和擔憂困擾時，你能很輕鬆地進入到一種自然流動的節奏狀態，你要做的事看起來是明顯的或明確的，所以你可以連續交易賺錢。當你買賣時，似乎市場在提示你，你不必分析就知道如何買賣。當然了，因為你不恐懼，所以你在執行交易時沒有內心的爭論或衝突。
The point I am making is that winning in any endeavor is mostly a function of attitude. Many people are certainly aware of this, but at the same time, most people don’t understand the significant part attitude plays in their results. In most sports or other competitive activities, participants must develop physical skills as well as mental skills in the form of strategies. If opponents are not evenly matched in the skills department, the one with superior skills usually (but not always) wins. When an underdog beats a superior opponent, what’s the determining factor? When two opponents are evenly matched, what’s the factor that tips the balance one way or the other? In both cases, the answer is attitude.
我想說的是，任何行業的成功大多來自態度。當然很多人都明白這點，但同時，大部分人不明白態度對結果的重要性。在大部分體育比賽或有競爭的活動中，參賽者必須首先同步發展身體技術和心理技術，心理技術就是策略。如果對手在技術上沒有優勢，那麽有更好技術的人通常（但不是永遠）會贏。如果一個失敗過的人打敗了超級對手，那麽決定因素是什麽呢？如果兩個對手旗鼓相當，那麽什麽因素會打破這種平衡呢？在這兩種情況下，答案都是態度。
What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that you really don’t need lots of skills; you just need a genuine winning attitude. Experiencing a few or more winning trades can make you feel like a winner, and that feeling is what sustains the winning streak. This is why it is possible for a novice trader to put on a string of winning trades, when many of the industry’s best market analysts would give their right arms for a string of winning trades. The analysts have the skills, but they don’t have the winning attitude. They’re operating out of fear. The novice trader experiences the feeling of a winning attitude because he’s not afraid. But that doesn’t mean he has a winning attitude; it only means he hasn’t experienced any pain from his trading activities to make him afraid.
交易既有趣又有困難的原因是你並不需要很多技術，你需要天才式的贏家態度。幾筆或多筆賺錢的交易會讓你感覺像交易者，這種感覺能讓你持續賺錢。這就是新手可能會連續多次賺錢的原因，市場中的優秀分析師則渴望能夠連續多次交易賺錢。分析師有技術，但他們沒有贏家的態度。他們在操作時會恐懼。新手因為不恐懼，所以體會了贏家的態度。但這不代表他有贏家的態度，這僅僅意味著他還沒有經曆過會讓他感到恐懼的痛苦。
REACTING TO LOSS
對虧損的反應
Eventually, our novice trader will experience a loss and being wrong, regardless of how positive he’s feeling. Losing and being wrong are inevitable realities of trading. The most positive attitude imaginable coupled with the best analytical skills can’t prevent a trader from eventually experiencing a losing trade. The markets are just too erratic and there are too many variables to consider for any trader to be right every time.
無論我們的新手多麽積極，最終他會犯錯虧損。交易中的犯錯和虧損是無法避免的現實。最積極的態度和最好的分析技術結合起來都不能阻止交易者最終會經曆虧損。市場反複無常，變數太多，任何交易者都無法做到在任意時刻麵麵俱到。
What happens when the novice trader finally does lose? What effect will it have on his carefree state of mind? The answers will depend on his expectations going into the trade and how he interprets the experience. And how he interprets the experience is a function of his beliefs and attitudes.
當新手最終虧損了，會怎麽樣？對他的無憂無慮的思維有什麽影響？答案取決於他的期望和他如何理解他的經曆。他如何理解他的經曆就是信念和態度的功能了。
What if he is operating out of a belief that there’s no possible way to avoid a loss, because losing is a natural consequence of trading - no different from, let’s say, a restaurant owner incurring the expense of having to buy food? Furthermore, suppose that he has completely accepted the risk, meaning that he has considered and accounted for all of what would otherwise be the unacceptable possibilities in the market’s behavior, both financially and emotionally. With these beliefs and expectations, it is unlikely that he would experience a deterioration of his attitude, and would simply go on to the next trade. By the way, this is an example of an ideal set of trading beliefs and attitudes.
如果他相信在交易時無法避免虧損，因為虧損是交易的自然結果——就像餐館的老板也要花錢吃飯一樣，那會如何？另外，假如他完全接受風險，意味著他完全考慮到了市場行為的各種可能性，既是金錢方麵的，也是情緒方麵的。有了這些信念和期望，這樣他的態度不會收到不好的影響，他就可以輕鬆地進行下一筆交易。順便說一下，這是理想的交易信念和態度的案例。
Now suppose that he hasn’t completely accepted the risk. What if his expectations didn’t take into account any market behavior other than what he wanted? From this mental perspective, if the market doesn’t do what he wants, he is going to feel pain - emotional pain. Expectations are our mental representations of how some future moment in the environment is going to look, sound, feel, smell, or taste. Depending upon how much energy is behind the expectation, it can hurt a lot when it isn’t fulfilled.
假如他沒有完全接受風險。如果他沒有完全考慮市場行為，隻是滿懷期望，會如何？從心理的角度來說，如果市場和他想的不同，他會感到痛苦——情緒痛苦。期望代表了我們的心理對未來的看法、聽覺、感覺、嗅覺或味覺。如果他期望背後的能量很大，當期望沒有實現時就會嚴重受傷。
Of the two different perspectives I just described, which one is likely to be held by our novice trader? The latter, of course. Only the very best traders have acquired the perspective described in the first scenario. And, as I indicated in Chapter 1, unless these very best traders grew up in successful trading families or had super traders for mentors (where appropriate attitudes about risk and loss were instilled in them from the very beginning of their careers), virtually every one of them had the common experience of losing one or more fortunes before they realized how they needed to think in order to be consistently successful.
關於前麵兩種不同的觀點，新手一般會采用哪種？當然是後者。隻有最優秀的交易者才會有第一種觀點。我在第01章講過，除非最優秀的交易者成長在成功的交易家庭或有一個超級導師（這樣就會在交易生涯的初期灌輸給他們正確的風險和虧損態度），每個人在認識到如何形成持續一致性成功的思維之前，他們都會體驗一次或多次財產損失。
It’s a fundamental shift in attitude that accounts for their success, not some brilliant realization about the market, as most people erroneously assume. This erroneous assumption is prevalent among traders simply because very few of them really understand, at the deepest levels, just how critical a component attitude is in determining one’s success.
大部分人錯誤地以為對市場的重大認知改變是成功的關鍵，實際上態度的基本轉變才是成功的關鍵。因為隻有少數人才能更深地體會到態度對成功是多麽的關鍵，所以大部分交易者都理解錯了。
We can safely assume that after a loss, our novice trader will be in a state of emotional pain. As a result, his trading will take on a whole new quality. He’ll definitely lose that carefree state of mind, but more important, he will feel that the market did this to him: The market caused him to feel the pain he is experiencing; the market took away his winning feeling by subjecting him to a loss.
我們可以想象到天真的交易者在虧損後會情緒痛苦。結果就是他的交易質量提高到新的水平。他絕對會失去無憂無慮的思想狀態，但重要的是，他會以為是市場在害他：市場導致了他的痛苦，市場通過製造虧損剝奪了他贏家的感覺。
Notice how our trader is blaming the markets for losing or what he didn’t get. Notice, too, how natural it is to feel the way he does. Think about how many times in our lives, especially as children, we were doing something we really enjoyed, like playing with a toy or with our friends, and someone with more power and authority forced us to stop what we were doing and do something we didn’t want to do. All of us have lost things, had things taken away from us, been denied things we wanted or believed we deserved, been prevented from continuing an activity we were in the middle of, or been blocked from pursuing an idea we were passionate about.
請注意交易者是如何就自己的虧損或沒實現的目標而責怪市場的，同時請注意他有這種感覺是多麽地自然。當我們大多數人在小時候盡情地玩玩具時，或和小朋友們玩耍時，大人會迫使我們停止，讓我們去做我們不喜歡的事，請想想這樣的事發生了多少次。我們都曾經失去過一些東西，有些東西被別人拿走了，有些我們想要或以為自己能得到的東西被拒絕了，有些我們正在做的事被終止了，有些激情的理想被阻止了。
The point is that in many of these situations, we did not need to take personal responsibility for what happened to us or for the pain we experienced, because we were powerless to do anything about it. We didn’t choose to be forced out of a state of joy and happiness, into a state of emotional pain. The decision was out of our hands, against our will, and usually quite abrupt. Even though we may have been told we were responsible for what was happening to us, we may not have believed it or understood what it meant.
在這些情況下，重要的是我們不必為發生在我們身上的事或經曆的痛苦自己承擔責任，因為我們無力回天。快樂和幸福變成了情緒痛苦，這並非是我們的本意。這些違背我們意願的決定都不是我們能決定的，通常都來的突然。即使有人告訴我們要對發生的事自己承擔責任，我們也不明白這意味著什麽。
What’s tangible, and what we can most easily relate to, is that we were having fun, and someone or something took us out of that fun and into pain. It wasn’t our choice. The cause of our pain came to us from the outside; therefore, whatever force acted upon us in that moment was to blame. We learned not only that feeling good can instantly be replaced with feeling bad through no fault of our own; we also learned about betrayal. We felt betrayed because many of these situations were completely unexpected or unanticipated, meaning, we were unprepared for how some people in our lives had the potential to behave. If their behavior caused us to flip into a state of emotional pain, then we quite naturally would have felt betrayed.
更真實的體會就是，當我們玩的開心時，有人或事把我們從開心變成了痛苦。這並非我們的本意。我們痛苦的原因來自外部，因此，不管當時迫使我們的是什麽力量，都應該收到譴責。我們不但知道了在自己不犯錯的前提下快樂的感覺能瞬間被糟糕的感覺替代，而且我們還知道了背叛。我們感受到背叛是因為很多事都發生在毫無準備的情況下，這意味著我們不知道我們生活中的哪些人會有可能這麽做。如果他們的行為導致了我們精神痛苦，我們就自然地感受到背叛。
As a side note, I feel it is important to say that many of our past, emotionally painful experiences were the result of well-meaning parents, teachers and friends, many of whom were only doing what they believed at the time was best for us. The best example is a child playing with a toy that is inherently dangerous. Take the toy away, and the child will cry to express the emotional pain he is experiencing, and, if we are dealing with a very young or immature child, in all likelihood he will not listen to anything reasonable that we say about why he cannot play with that toy.
特別重要說明一下，我們很多人在小時候，很多好心的父母、老師和朋友他們當時用以為對我們最好的方式給我們造成了情緒上的痛苦。最好的例子就是小孩玩危險的玩具，如果把玩具拿走，小孩會通過哭來表達情緒上的痛苦；如果我們麵對的小孩很小或不成熟，那麽他是不理解我們拿走他玩具的具體原因的。
But, at the same time, many people are born to immature and unreasonable parents, or encounter emotionally disturbed teachers, coaches, and employees who subconsciously or intentionally inflict their personal problems on anyone they perceive as having less power. What’s even worse is many of the people who have a tendency toward victimizing others are also clever enough to do it in a way that makes their victims believe they caused their own pain. In any case, whether our painful experiences are the result of an act of love or intentionally inflicted is something each of us will have to determine for ourselves.
但是，很多小孩的父母就不成熟不講道理，或者遇到了情緒不穩定的老師、教練和員工，他們下意識地或有意地把自己的問題強加給看起來意誌薄弱的人。更嚴重的是，一些人很聰明，又愛欺負別人，還讓受害者以為是自己的原因。不管是哪種情況，不管我們的痛苦來自愛或來自有意強加的，我們都要為自己做決定。
The bottom line is that, as adults when we get into a trading mode, we don’t realize how natural it is to associate the instantaneous shift from joy to pain that we experienced so often as children with the same instantaneous shift from joy to pain that occurs when we trade. The implications are that if we haven’t learned to accept the inherent risks of trading and don’t know how to guard against making these natural connections between our past and the present, we will end up blaming the market for our results instead of taking responsibility for them.
總結一下，作為成人，當我們交易時，我們沒有意識到自己會自然地把瞬間從歡樂到痛苦的經曆和小時候同樣的經曆聯係起來。這意味著如果我們不知道接受交易中天生的風險，也不知道駕馭我們的過去和現在的自然聯係，我們就隻會責怪市場，而不是自己承擔責任。
Even though most people who trade consider themselves responsible adults, only the very best traders have reached a point where they can and do accept complete responsibility for the outcome of any particular trade. Everyone else to one degree or another assumes they are taking responsibility; but the reality is that they want the market to do it for them. The typical trader wants the market to fulfill his expectations, his hopes, and dreams.
即使很多交易者都認為自己是負責任的成人，但隻有最優秀的交易者才能完全為每筆交易結果承擔責任。其他人在某種程度上會認為他們負責任，但是實際上他們希望市場負責任。典型的交易者希望市場滿足他的期望、希望和夢想。
Society may work this way but the markets certainly don’t. In society, we can expect other people to behave in reasonable and responsible ways. When they don’t, and if we suffer as a result, society makes remedies available to rectify the imbalance and make us whole again. The market, on the other hand, has no responsibility to give us anything or do anything that would benefit us. This may not be the way markets are advertised and certainly not the impression they want to project, but the reality is, every trader who participates in the markets does so for his own benefit. The only way one trader can benefit is if some other trader loses, whether the loss is in actual dollars as in a futures trade, or lost opportunity as in a stock trade.
社會可以幫助你，但市場肯定不會。在社會中，我們可以期望別人行為規矩有理。如果他們不這麽做，我們受害了，社會會拯救我們，打破不平衡，讓我們恢複正常。然而市場沒有任何責任，也不會做任何事來為我們著想。這好像和宣傳的不一樣啊，這當然不是他們宣傳的重點，但現實是，每個交易者都是為自己著想的。無論是期貨還是股票，交易者賺錢的唯一辦法就是其他人要虧錢。
When you put on a trade, it is in anticipation of making money. Every other trader in the world who puts on a trade does so for the same reason. When you look at your relationship with the market from this perspective, you could say that your purpose is to extract money from the markets, but, by the same token, the market’s sole purpose is to extract money or opportunity from you.
當你交易時，你期待賺錢。這個世界上其他的交易者也這麽想。如果你從你和市場的關係來思考，你可以說你的目標就是從市場賺錢，但同理，市場的唯一目標就是賺你的錢。
If the market is a group of people interacting to extract money from one another, then what is the market’s responsibility to the individual trader? It has no responsibility other than to follow the rules it has established to facilitate this activity. The point is, if you have ever found yourself blaming the market or feeling betrayed, then you have not given enough consideration to the implications of what it means to play a zero-sum game. Any degree of blaming means you have not accepted the reality that the market owes you nothing, regardless of what you want or think or how much effort you put into your trading.
如果市場就是一群人互相賺對方的錢，那麽市場對個人交易者的責任是什麽？市場沒有責任，它隻是按照當初建立時的原則辦事。我要說的重點是，如果你發現自己在責怪市場，或感受到背叛，那麽你對零和遊戲的思考還不夠認真。任何責怪都說明你沒有接受市場不欠你的現實，無論你怎麽想，無路你如何怎麽努力，市場都不欠你的。
In the market, typical social values of exchange do not come into play. If you don’t understand this and find a way to reconcile the differences between the social norms you grew up with and the way the market works, you will continue to project your hopes, dreams, and desires onto the market believing it’s going to do something for you. When it doesn’t, you’ll feel angry, frustrated, emotionally distraught, and betrayed.
在市場中，典型的社會價值交換並不起作用。如果你不明白這個道理，你必然想在社會和市場之間找到一致的地方，你會繼續希望、夢想、期待市場會幫你做點什麽。如果市場沒幫你，你就會感到憤怒、受挫、情緒錯亂、背叛。
Taking responsibility means acknowledging and accepting, at the deepest part of your identity, that you - not the market - are completely responsible for your success or failure as a trader. Granted, the market’s purpose is to separate you from your money; but in the process of doing so, it also provides you with an endless stream of opportunities for you to take money from it. When prices move, that movement represents the collective actions of everyone participating at that moment. The market also generates information about itself, and makes it extremely easy to enter and exit trades (depending, of course, on the number of people participating).
自己承擔責任意味著從內心深處確認並接受是你——不是市場——完全對你的成功或失敗負責。顯然，市場的目的是把你和你的錢分開，但是在這個過程中，市場也提供了無限的讓你賺錢的機會。當價格波動時，波動代表了此時所有參與者的行動總和。市場會提供自身的信息，讓你可以很輕鬆地進場或出場（當然要取決於參與的人數）。
From the individuals perspective, price movement, information, and the ability to enter and exit trades represent opportunities to see something and to act on what you perceive. During each moment the markets are open, you have an opportunity to enter a position, lighten up a position, add to a position, or exit a position. These are all opportunities to enrich yourself by taking profits or, at least, cutting your losses.
從個人的角度來看，價格的波動、信息、進出交易說明你看到了一些機會並利用自己的認知采取行動。在市場的任何開盤時間，你有機會建倉、調整倉位、加倉、平倉、兌現利潤、止損，這些都是你致富的機會。
Let me pose a question. Do you feel responsible for fulfilling some other traders expectations, hopes, dreams, and desires? Of course you don’t. It sounds absurd to even ask. However, if you ever find yourself blaming the market and feeling betrayed, that is essentially what you are doing. You are expecting the collective actions of everyone participating in the market to make the market act in a way that gives you what you want. You have to learn for yourself how to get what you want out of the markets. The first major step in this learning process is taking complete and absolute responsibility.
讓我提個問題，你覺得自己應該為其他交易者的期望、希望、夢想和欲望負責嗎？當然你不會這麽認為。這個問題有點荒唐。然而，如果你發現自己責怪市場，感覺到背叛，那說明你以為別人應該對你負責。你期望市場參與者綜合行為的結果能給你你想要的東西。你必須自己學習如何從市場中得到你想要的。在這個學習過程中完全絕對地自己承擔責任是第一個關鍵的步驟。
Taking responsibility means believing that all of your outcomes are self-generated; that your results are based on your interpretations of market information, the decisions you make and the actions you take as a result. Taking anything less than complete responsibility sets up two major psychological obstacles that will block your success. First, you will establish an adversarial relationship with the market that takes you out of the constant flow of opportunities. Second, you will mislead yourself into believing that your trading problems and lack of success can be rectified through market analysis.
承擔責任意味著確信所有的結果都是自己造成的，你的結果取決於你對市場的認知，你要接受你做的決定和行動結果。如果不完全地承擔責任，會導致兩個主要心理障礙而不能成功。第一，你和市場建立了敵對關係，錯失了無限的機會。第二，你錯誤地以為分析市場可以解決交易問題並實現成功。
Let’s consider the first obstacle. When you project any degree of responsibility onto the market for giving you money or cutting your losses, the market can all too easily take on the quality of an adversary or enemy. Losing (when you expected the market to do something different from what it did) will tap you into the same childlike feelings of pain, anger, resentment, and powerlessness that all of us felt when someone took something away from us, didn’t give us what we wanted, or wouldn’t let us do what we wanted.
讓我們想想交易時的第一個障礙。當你期待市場為你賺錢或幫你止損時，市場可以輕鬆地變成你的對手或敵人。就像我們小時候，別人拿走了我們的東西，不理會我們的需求，或不讓我們做我們想做的事一樣，虧損（你本希望市場能幫你賺錢）會讓你再次品嚐童年時的痛苦、憤怒、憎恨和無能無力。
No one likes to feel denied, especially if we believe that getting what we want will make us happy. In each of these situations, something or someone outside of us prevented us from expressing ourselves in some particular way. In other words, some outside force was acting against the inner force of our desires and expectations.
沒有人喜歡被拒絕，尤其當我們認為得到我們想要的東西會讓我們感到快樂時。在這些情況下，一些外部的人和事會阻止我們用特殊的方式表達自己。換句話說，一些外部力量和我們內部的欲望期望的力量是針鋒相對的。
As a result, it feels natural to assign the market the power of an outside force that either gives or takes away. But consider the fact that the market presents its information from a neutral perspective. That means the market doesn’t know what you want or expect, nor does it care, unless, of course, you trade the kind of position that can have a major impact on prices. Otherwise, each moment, each bid, and each offer gives you the opportunity to do something. You can put on a trade, take profits, or take off a loser. This is also true for those of you who are floor traders and are personally known to other floor traders, who may also know your position and, to your detriment, purposely take advantage of that knowledge. It just means that you have to be faster and more focused, or take whatever limitations you have in these areas into consideration and trade accordingly.
因此很自然地就覺得市場有生殺予奪的能力。但事實是，市場給出的信息是中性的。這意味著市場不知道你的需要和期望，它也不關心你；除非你的倉位正好出現了大行情，這會讓你覺得市場在關心你。另外，在任意時刻，每個買入報價和賣出報價都給你提供了機會。你可以交易、兌現利潤或虧損。對於場內交易者來說，他們能知道你的倉位，會就此采取對你不利的行動。這意味著在交易時你必須考慮到這些因素，動作快，精力集中，相應地做好對策。
From the market’s perspective, each moment is neutral; to you, the observer, every moment and price change can have meaning. But where do these meaning exist? The meanings are based on what you’ve learned, and exist inside your mind, not in the market. The market doesn’t attach meanings or interpret the information it generates about itself (although there are always individuals who will offer an interpretation if you’re willing to listen). Furthermore, the market doesn’t know how you define an opportunity or a loss. The market doesn’t know whether you perceive it as an endless stream of opportunities to enter and exit trades for both profits and losses at each and every moment, or whether you perceive it as a greedy monster ready and willing in any given moment to devour your money.
從市場的角度來說，任意時刻都是中性的。你作為觀察者會對每個時刻每個價格波動都有自己的理解。但它們到底意味著什麽？這些意義取決於你的認知，這些意義在你的思維中，不在市場中。市場不會告訴你意義是什麽，也不解釋自己產生的信息（如果你願意去傾聽，總會有人給你一個解釋的）。另外，市場也不知道你是如何定義機會或虧損的。無論你把市場看作時刻有賺錢機會的無限的河流，還是把市場看作隨時會吞掉你的資金的貪婪的怪獸，市場自己並不知道你的想法。
If you perceive the endless stream of opportunities to enter and exit trades without self-criticism and regret, then you will be in the best frame of mind to act in your own best interest and learn from your experiences. On the other hand, if what you perceive in market information is painful in some way, then you will naturally try to avoid that pain by either consciously or subconsciously blocking that information from your awareness. In the process of blocking that information, you’ll systematically cut yourself off from any number of opportunities to enrich yourself. In other words, you cut yourself off from the opportunity flow.
如果你把市場看作有無限交易機會的河流，同時你自己也不會自責後悔，那麽你就會為了自己的最大利益去行動並從自己的經曆中提高自己的認知。另一方麵，如果你對市場信息的解讀是痛苦的，你就會有意識或下意識地回避信息以避免痛苦。你在回避信息的同時也喪失了一些致富的機會。換句話說，你自己離開了這條機會河流。
Furthermore, it will feel like the market is against you but only if you expect it to do something for you, or if you believe that it owes you something. If someone or something is against you and causes you pain, how are you likely to respond? You’ll feel compelled to fight, but what exactly are you fighting? The market is certainly not fighting you. Yes, the market wants your money, but it also provides you with the opportunity to take as much as you can. Although it may feel as if you are fighting the market, or it is fighting you, the reality is you are simply fighting the negative consequences of not fully accepting that the market owes you nothing; and that you need to take advantage of the opportunities it presents by yourself, 100 percent and not one degree less.
另外，如果你僅僅希望市場為你做點什麽或認為市場欠你的，那麽你就會覺得市場在和你作對。如果一些人或事和你作對並導致你痛苦，你會如何回應？你想和它鬥，但你到底是在和誰鬥？市場肯定沒和你鬥。沒錯，市場想要你的錢，但它同樣給你提供了無限賺錢的機會。雖然感覺上你在和市場鬥，或者市場在和你鬥，但事實上你在和不承認市場根本不欠你的消極心態鬥，為此你必須100%充分利用市場提供給你的機會。
The way to take maximum advantage of a situation where you are being offered unlimited opportunities to do something for yourself is to get into the flow. The market does have a flow. It is often erratic, especially in the shorter time frames, but it does display symmetrical patterns that repeat themselves over and over again. Obviously, it’s a contradiction to flow with something you are against. If you want to start sensing the flow of the market, your mind has to be relatively free of fear, anger, regret, betrayal, despair, and disappointment. You won’t have a reason to experience these negative emotions when you assume absolute responsibility.
當市場給你提供了無限的機會時，你要跳進去抓住最大的優勢。市場確實有流動。它經常反複無常，尤其是短期時間內更明顯，但它也會一次又一次地出現一些可以賺錢的模式。很明顯，如果你和市場是對立的，你又要去跟蹤市場，這是矛盾的。如果你去感受市場的流動，你的思想狀態就不會感覺到害怕、憤怒、後悔、背叛、絕望和失望。如果你絕對地自己承擔責任，你就沒有理由去體驗這些消極的情緒。
Earlier, I said that when you don’t take responsibility, one of the major psychological obstacles that can block your success is that you will mislead yourself into believing that your trading problems and lack of consistency can be rectified through market analysis. To illustrate this point, let’s go back to our novice trader who started out with a carefree state of mind until he experienced his first loss.
我在前麵說了，當你不想負責任時，你會以為做好市場分析就可以解決沒有持續一致性的問題，這是一種心理障礙，它會阻礙你的成功。為了說明這個觀點，我們可以看看新手，他開始交易時無憂無慮，直到他第一次體驗了虧損。
After winning with such ease and effortlessness, the abrupt shift to emotional pain can be quite shocking - not shocking enough, however, to quit trading. Besides, in his mind the situation wasn’t his fault anyway; the market did it to him. Instead of quitting, the great feeling that he experienced when he was winning will be fresh in his mind, and will inspire him with a sense of determination to continue trading.
當他無憂無慮地賺錢時，突然產生的情緒痛苦是讓人吃驚的——如果還不算令人吃驚的話，甚至會讓人放棄交易。他認為自己沒錯，是市場害了他。此時他不會放棄交易，他賺錢的感覺太好了，這種感覺在大腦中還是鮮活的，他會決定繼續交易。
Only now he’s going to be smarter about it. He’s going to put some effort into it and learn everything he can about the markets. It’s perfectly logical to think that if he can win not knowing anything, he’ll be able to clean up when he does know something. But there’s a big problem here that very few, if any, traders will have any awareness of until long after the damage is done. Learning about the markets is fine and doesn’t cause a problem in itself. It’s the underlying reason for learning about the market that will ultimately prove to be his undoing.
現在他變得聰明了，他準備努力研究市場。如果他在什麽都不知道的情況下都能賺錢，那麽他在研究市場以後就能掃清障礙了，這個想法在邏輯上是完美的。但少數交易者在虧損以後才明白這是一個很大的問題。研究市場是好事，本身並沒有問題，但最終發現研究市場並不能解決問題。
As I said a moment ago, the sudden shift from joy to pain usually creates quite a psychological shock. Very few people ever learn how to reconcile these kinds of experiences in a healthy way. Techniques are available, but they aren’t widely known. The typical response in most people, especially in the type of person attracted to trading, is revenge. For traders, the only way to extract that revenge is to conquer the market, and the only way to conquer the market is through market knowledge, or so they think. In other words, the underlying reason for why the novice trader is learning about the market is to overcome the market, to prove something to it and himself, and most important, to prevent the market from hurting him again. He is not learning the market simply as a means to give himself a systematic way of winning, but rather as a way to either avoid pain or prove something that has absolutely nothing to do with looking at the market from an objective perspective. He doesn’t realize it, but as soon as he made the assumption that knowing something about the market can prevent him from experiencing pain or can help satisfy his desire for revenge or to prove something, he sealed his fate to become a loser.
正如我前麵所講的，突然從歡樂變成痛苦會導致心理震驚，隻有少數人知道如何健康地處理這種經曆。有些技術能解決這些問題，但並不為大多數人知道。大多數人，尤其是喜歡交易的人，他們的典型反應是報仇。交易者認為，唯一的報仇辦法就是征服市場，唯一征服市場的辦法就是認真研究市場，至少他們是這麽想的。換句話說，新手研究市場的原因是為了征服市場，以證明自己，更重要的是為了不再受傷害。他並不是用係統的方法研究市場，也不是從客觀的角度看待市場，他隻是想避免痛苦或證明一些無關緊要的東西。他以為隻要研究好了市場，就可以避免痛苦，就可以實現報複市場的目的，但他不知道自己已經走上了虧損的道路。
In effect what he has done is set up an irreconcilable dilemma. He is learning how to recognize and understand the market’s collective behavior patterns, and that’s good. It even feels good. He’s inspired because he assumes he’s learning about the market in order to become a winner. As a result, he will typically go on a knowledge quest, learning about trend lines, chart patterns, support and resistance, candlesticks, market profiles, point and line charts, Elliott waves, Fibonacci retracements, oscillators, relative strength, stochastics, and many more technical tools too numerous to mention. Curiously, even though his knowledge has increased, he now finds that he’s developed problems executing his trades. He hesitates, second guesses himself, or doesn’t put on a trade at all, in spite of any number of clear signals to do so. It’s all frustrating, even maddening, because what’s happened doesn’t make sense. He did what he was supposed to do - he learned - only to find that the more he learned, the less he took advantage of. He would never believe that he did anything wrong by devoting himself to learning; he simply did it for the wrong reasons.
最後他進入了一個兩難境地。他已經明白了市場整體行為模式，這是好事。因為他覺得自己了解了市場，他感覺很好，很受鼓舞，認為自己可以成為贏家。於是他努力追求知識，學習趨勢線、圖表模式、支撐點、壓力點、K線、市場輪廓、點線圖、艾略特波浪理論、黃金分割線、振蕩指標、相對強度指數、隨機指標以及其它無數的技術工具。有趣的是，即使他的知識增加了，他卻不能很好地執行交易了。雖然有一些明確的信號叫他行動，但他變得猶豫、猜疑或無法交易。因為實際情況表明他學的東西不能合理的運用，這令人沮喪，甚至令人瘋狂。他按照計劃做了——學習研究市場——結果發現學的越多，自己越沒有優勢。他努力地研究市場，他覺得他沒有做錯任何事，其實研究市場這個理由是錯的。
He won’t be able to trade effectively if he is trying to prove something or anything for that matter. If you have to win, if you have to be right, if you can’t lose or can’t be wrong, you will cause yourself to define and perceive categories of market information as painful. In other words, you will view as painful any information the market generates that is in opposition to what will make you happy.
如果他總想證明自己是對的，他就再也不能有效地交易了。如果你必須贏，必須正確，如果你不能虧或不能錯，你就會發現定義和解讀市場信息是痛苦的。換句話說，你會把市場產生的信息看成是痛苦的信息。
The dilemma is that our minds are wired to avoid both physical and emotional pain, and learning about the markets will not compensate for the negative effects our pain-avoidance mechanisms have on our trading. Everybody understands the nature of avoiding physical pain. Accidentally set your hand on a hot burner, and your hand moves away from the heat automatically; it’s an instinctive reaction. However, when it comes to avoiding emotional pain and the negative consequences it creates, especially for traders, very few people understand the dynamics. Its absolutely essential to your development that you understand these negative effects and learn how to take conscious control in a way that helps you fulfill your goals.
一方麵我們的思想要避免身體傷害和情緒痛苦，另一方麵研究市場並不能彌補痛苦回避係統對我們造成的消極影響，這是一種兩難境地。無意中把手放在燙爐子上，你的手會自動快速移開，這是本能回避身體痛苦的反應，每個人都明白自動回避痛苦的本能。然而，對於回避情緒痛苦和它的消極效果，隻有少數人才能明白內在動力，尤其是交易者更是如此。你明白這些消極效果並學習如何讓意識控製它們以幫助自己實現目標絕對是重要的。
Our minds have a number of ways to shield us from information that we have learned to perceive as painful. For example, at a conscious level, we can rationalize, justify, or make a case for staying in a losing trade. Some of the more typical ways we do this are to call our trading buddies, talk to our broker, or look at indicators we never use, all for the express purpose of gathering nonpainful information in order to deny the validity of the painful information. At a subconscious level, our minds will automatically alter, distort, or specifically exclude information from our conscious awareness. In other words, we don’t know at a conscious level that our pain-avoidance mechanisms are either excluding or altering the information being offered by the market.
我們的大腦有一些方法保護我們不再受痛苦信息的影響。比如，對於正在虧損的倉位，我們會下意識地找理由、找借口或千方百計地證明自己是對的，比較典型的做法就是打電話給朋友和經紀人商量或觀察從來不用的指標，所有這些努力的目的都是收集不痛苦的信息以排除痛苦的信息。在下意識裏，我們的思維會自動地過濾、扭曲或特意排除一些信息。換句話說，在正常意識下，我們不知道我們的痛苦回避係統是否在有意地排除或過濾市場信息。
Consider the experience of being in a losing trade when the market is making consistently higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows against your position, while you refuse to acknowledge you are in a losing trade because you have focused all your attention on the tics that go in your favor. On the average, you are only getting one out of four or five tics in your direction; but it doesn’t matter because every time you get one, you are convinced the market has reversed and is coming back. Instead the market keeps going against you. At some point, the dollar value of the loss becomes so great that it cannot be denied and you finally exit the trade.
想象一下，當市場在不斷創造新高或新低時，你卻持有虧損的倉位，因為你正在全神貫注地盯著對你有利的小跳動，所以你拒絕承認你的倉位是虧損的。價格每跳動4，5個基點，隻有1個基點的跳動是對你有利的，但這不要緊，因為每當對你有利時，你就確信市場反轉了，回來了。實際上市場繼續對你不利，到了某種程度，你虧損的金額太大了，你不得不承認虧損，隻好平掉倉位。
The first reaction that traders universally have when looking back at such a trade is, “Why didn’t I just take my loss and reverse?” The opportunity to put on a trade in the opposite direction was easily recognized once there was nothing at stake. But we were blinded to this opportunity while we were in the trade, because at that time the information indicating it was an opportunity was defined as painful, so we blocked it from our awareness.
當交易者回頭再看交易時，通常的反應是：“為什麽我不知道止損並反向交易呢？”如果沒有虧損的倉位，反向交易的機會是很容易辨識的。但是當我們持有倉位時，我們被蒙蔽了雙眼，因為此時我們把機會定義為痛苦，所以我們的意識就把它阻止了。
When our hypothetical trader first started trading, he was having fun; he was in a carefree state of mind; he had no personal agendas and nothing to prove. As long as he was winning, he put his trades on from a “let’s see what will happen” perspective. The more he won, the less he considered the possibility of ever losing. When he finally did lose, he was probably in a state of mind where he least expected it. Instead of assuming that the cause of his pain was his erroneous expectation about what the market was supposed to do or not do, he blamed the market, and resolved that by gaining market knowledge, he could prevent such experiences from recurring. In other words, he made a dramatic shift in his perspective from carefree to preventing pain by avoiding losses.
假定交易者第一次開始交易，他覺得有趣，他處於無憂無慮的狀態，他沒有計劃，也不用證明什麽。當他持續賺錢的時候，他交易時采用“讓我們看看結果如何”的觀點。當他賺的越多，他越不會考慮虧損的可能。當他最終虧了，他還在期望。他不認為他的痛苦是不當的期望造成的，他反而責怪市場，他覺得隻要研究了市場，他就可以避免這樣的事再發生了。換句話說，他把自己的觀點從無憂無慮改變為避免虧損以防止痛苦。
The problem is that preventing pain by avoiding losses can’t be done. The market generates behavior patterns and the patterns repeat themselves, but not every time. So again, there is no possible way to avoid losing or being wrong. Our trader won’t sense these trading realities, because he is being driven forward by two compelling forces: (1) he desperately wants that winning feeling back, and (2) he is extremely enthusiastic about all of the market knowledge he is acquiring. What he doesn’t realize is that, in spite of his enthusiasm, when he went from a carefree state of mind to a prevent-and-avoid mode of thinking, he shifted from a positive to a negative attitude.
問題是通過避免虧損來防止痛苦是辦不到的。市場會產生行為模式，模式也會重複出現，但不是每次都出現。所以再次證明，沒有避免虧損或犯錯的可能方法。我們的交易者無法體會這個交易現實，因為他被兩種力量驅使：（1）他強烈要求再次獲得贏家的感覺，（2）他超級癡迷於研究所有的市場知識。他不知道的是，他不但失去了激情，他從無憂無慮的思想狀態轉換到防止並避免的思維等於態度上從積極思考轉到了消極思考。
He’s no longer focused on just winning, but rather on how he can avoid pain by preventing the market from hurting him again. This kind of negative perspective isn’t any different from the tennis player or golfer who is focused on trying not to make a mistake, the more he tries not to make a mistake, the more mistakes he makes. However, this mode of thinking is much easier to recognize in sports because there’s a more discernable connection between one’s focus and one’s results. With trading, the connection can be obscured and more difficult to recognize as a result of the positive feelings being generated from discovering new relationships in market data and behavior.
他不再關注於賺錢，而是關注於如何防止市場再次傷害他以避免痛苦。這種消極的觀點和打網球或打高爾夫的人一樣，他們越是盡量不犯錯，他們越是努力，犯的錯誤就越多。因為一個人聚焦的事物和結果之間的聯係是可辨別的，所以這種思維模式在體育中是很容易辨識。在交易中，因為研究的重點是市場數據和市場行為之間的關係，所以研究的結果是模糊的，不容易辨識的。
Since he is feeling good, there’s no reason to suspect that anything is wrong, except that the degree to which his focus is weighted toward pain-avoidance is the same degree by which he will create the very experiences he is trying to avoid. In other words, the more he has to win and not lose, the less tolerance he will have for any information that might indicate he is not getting what he wants. The more information that he has the potential to block, the less he will be able to perceive an opportunity to act in his own best interests.
因為他感覺很好，所以他覺得自己是對的。但是，如果他特別重視回避痛苦，那麽情況就不同了。換句話說，他越是想贏，越是不想虧，他對不利信息的忍受能力就越差。他越是回避不利信息，他能看見的對他有利的機會就越少。
Learning more and more about the markets only to avoid pain will compound his problems because the more he learns, the more he will naturally expect from the markets, making it all the more painful when the markets don’t do their part. He has unwittingly created a vicious cycle where the more he learns, the more debilitated he becomes; the more debilitated he becomes, the more he feel compelled to learn. The cycle will continue until he either quits trading in disgust or recognizes that the root cause of his trading problems is his perspective, not his lack of market knowledge.
為了避免痛苦而努力研究市場隻會讓問題變得更複雜，因為他研究的越多，他對市場的期望越多，如果市場沒有按照他的預期走，他就更痛苦。他不知不覺地製造了一個危險的循環，他研究的越多，他越是疲憊不堪；他越是疲憊不堪，越感覺要研究市場。當他因為厭惡而退出交易時，或者是他認識到他交易問題的根源是他的觀點，不是缺少市場知識時，這個循環才會停止。
WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS
贏家，輸家，暴發戶和虧損者
It takes some time before most traders either throw in the towel or find out the true source of their success. In the meantime, some traders manage to get enough right about trading to enter into what is commonly referred to as the “boom and bust cycle.”
大部分交易者需要花很多時間才認輸或找到成功的真正方法。同時，有些交易者想正確地做交易，最終進入了所謂的“暴發與虧損的循環”。
Contrary to what some of you may have inferred from the example of the novice trader, not everyone has an inherently negative attitude and is therefore doomed to lose consistently. Yes, it is true that some traders do consistently lose, often until they lose everything or quit trading because they can’t tolerate any more emotional pain. However, there are also many traders who are tenacious students of the market and have a sufficiently winning attitude going into trading so that, in spite of the many difficulties, they eventually learn how to make money. But, and I want to emphasize this, they learn how to make money only on a limited basis; they haven’t yet learned how to counteract the negative effects of euphoria or how to compensate for the potential for self-sabotage.
和前麵例子中講到的新手不同，並不是每個人都有天生的消極態度而注定無法實現持續一致性。有些交易者會持續虧損，沒錯，這是事實，因為他們無法忍受精神上的痛苦，他們最終虧光了或退出交易。然而，也有很多交易者是市場堅強的學生，他們有有效的贏家態度，所以不管有多少苦難，他們最終都能學會賺錢。但是，我想強調，他們學習如何賺錢的基礎還不牢靠，他們還沒有學會如何應對過度興奮的消極影響，也不知道如何彌補自毀傾向。
Euphoria and self-sabotage are two powerful psychological forces that will have an extremely negative effect on your bottom line. But, they are not forces you have to concern yourself with until you start winning, or start winning on a consistent basis, and that’s a big problem. When you’re winning, you are least likely to concern yourself with anything that might be a potential problem, especially something that feels as good as euphoria. One of the primary characteristics of euphoria is that it creates a sense of supreme confidence where the possibility of anything going wrong is virtually inconceivable. Conversely, errors that result from self-sabotage have their root in any number of conflicts that traders have about deserving the money or deserving to win.
過度興奮和自毀是兩種有力的心理力量，對你有極大的消極影響。但是，隻有你開始賺錢或持續一致性地賺錢時，這兩種力量才出現，這是大問題。當你賺錢的時候，尤其是過度興奮的時候，你很少去想其它可能的問題。過度興奮的一個基本特點就是它製造了超級自信，任何犯錯的可能都變得不可思議。相反，交易者認為自己應該賺錢或應該贏，一旦事實和自己想的產生了衝突，就會產生自毀心理。
It’s when you’re winning that you are most susceptible to making a mistake, overtrading, putting on too large a position, violating your rules, or generally operating as if no prudent boundaries on your behavior are necessary. You may even go to the extreme of thinking you are the market. However, the market rarely agrees, and when it disagrees, you’ll get hurt. The loss and the emotional pain are usually significant. You will experience a boom, followed by the inevitable bust.
當你賺錢的時候，犯錯、過度交易、倉位過大、違反原則或天馬行空式交易等心態都會影響你，你甚至會狂妄地以為自己就是市場。然而，市場很少會同意你的想法，當它不同意時，你就受傷了。虧損和情緒痛苦一般都是嚴重的。首先你經曆了輝煌，然後你迎接來了必然的虧損。
If I were to classify traders based on the kind of results they achieve, I would put them into three broad categories. The smallest group, probably fewer than 10 percent of the active traders, are the consistent winners. They have a steadily rising equity curve with relatively minor drawdowns. The drawdowns they do experience are the type of normal losses that any trading methodology or system incurs. Not only have they learned how to make money, but they are no longer susceptible to the psychological forces that cause the boom-and-bust cycle.
如果根據交易者的結果來區分他們，我願意把他們分為三組。最小的一組，恐怕還不到交易者的10%，是持續一致的贏家。他們的資金曲線穩步上漲，而虧損則相對很小。他們的虧損是正常的虧損，任何交易方法或係統都會產生這樣的虧損。他們不但知道如何賺錢，而且他們永遠不受“先暴發後虧損”循環心理的影響。
The next group, which consists of between 30 and 40 percent of the active traders, are consistent losers. Their equity curves are mirror images of the consistent winners’ curves, but in the opposite direction - many losing trades with an occasional winner. Regardless of how long they have been trading, there’s much about it that they haven’t learned. They either have illusions about the nature of trading or are addicted to it in ways that make it virtually impossible for them to be winners.
第二組人占活躍交易者的30%——40%，他們是持續的輸家。他們的資金曲線就是持續一致性贏家資金曲線的對照，不過方向是反的——很多虧損的交易，偶爾會有賺錢的交易。不管他們交易生涯有多久，他們要學的東西還是太多了。他們要麽是對交易的本質有幻想，要麽就是對一種不可能賺錢的方法上癮了。
The largest group, the remaining 40 to 50 percent of the active traders, are the “boom and busters.” They have learned how to make money, but they haven’t learned there s a whole body of trading skills that have to be mastered in order to keep the money they make. As a result, their equity curves typically look like roller-coaster rides, with a nice, steady assent into a steep dropoff, then another nice, steady assent into another steep dropoff. The roller-coaster cycle continues on and on.
最大的一組是剩下來的40%——50%的活躍交易者，他們是“先暴發後虧損者”。他們學會了如何賺錢，但他們不知道整體交易還包括如何保住利潤。結果他們的資金曲線看起來像典型的過山車，漂亮穩步的上漲突然變成了陡峭的下跌，然後又是一個漂亮穩步的上漲突然變成了又一個陡峭的下跌。這樣的過山車一直在循環。
I have worked with many experienced traders who have put together incredible winning streaks, sometimes going months without a losing day; having fifteen or twenty winning trades in a row is not unusual for them. But for the boom and busters, these streaks always end the same way - in huge losses that are the result of either euphoria or self-sabotage.
我和很多有經驗的交易者溝通過，有些人能連續賺錢，有時候一個月都沒有一天虧損，對他們來說連續15或20筆賺錢是很正常。但是對於先暴發後虧損者來說，連續賺錢的結果也是一樣——因為過度興奮或自毀而導致巨大虧損。
If the losses are the result of euphoria, it really doesn’t matter what form the streak takes - a number of wins in a row, a steadily rising equity curve, or even one winning trade. Everyone seems to have a different threshold for when overconfidence or euphoria starts to take hold of the thinking process. However, the moment euphoria takes hold, the trader is in deep trouble.
如果過分興奮能導致虧損，那麽連續多筆賺錢、穩定上漲的資金曲線或即使是一筆賺錢的交易——都是沒意義的。似乎每個人都不能跨過過度自信或過度興奮這道心理門檻。一旦過度興奮占上風，交易者的麻煩就大了。
In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can’t perceive any risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can go wrong. If nothing can go wrong, there’s no need for rules or boundaries to govern your behavior. So putting on a larger than usual position is not only appealing, it’s compelling.
在過度自信或過度興奮狀態下，因為過度興奮讓你相信絕對不會出錯，所以你不能看見風險。如果你不會出錯，那麽就沒有必要用原則或條條框框來規範你的行為。所以建立一個超大倉位不但有吸引力，而且還有趣。
However, as soon as you put on the larger-than-usual position, you’re in danger. The larger the position, the greater the financial impact small fluctuations in price will have on your equity. Combine the larger-than-normal impact of a move against your position with a resolute belief that the market will do exactly as you expect, and you have a situation in which one tic in the opposition direction of your trade can cause you to go into a state of “mind-freeze” and become immobilized.
然而，一旦你建立了超大倉位，你就有危險了。倉位越大，價格的波動對資金的衝擊也就越大。如果你堅信市場會如你所願，同時又建立了超大倉位，那麽當市場往不利的方向跳動一個基點，你就會“目瞪口呆”，不知所措。
When you finally do pull yourself out of it, you’ll be dazed, disillusioned, and betrayed, and you’ll wonder how something like that could have happened. In fact, you were betrayed by your own emotions. However, if you’re not aware of or don’t understand the underlying dynamics I just described, you’ll have no other choice but to blame the market. If you believe the market did this to you, then you’ll feel compelled to learn more about the market in order to protect yourself. The more you learn, the more confident you will naturally become in your ability to win. As your confidence grows, the more likely that at some point you will cross the threshold into euphoria and start the cycle all over again.
當你最終逃了出來，你會茫然、醒悟、感覺背叛，你會奇怪怎麽會發生這樣的事。實際上，你被自己的情緒背叛了。然而，如果你沒意識到或不明白我剛才說的內在動力，你就會責怪市場。如果你認為是市場在陷害你，那麽你就會迫使自己去研究市場以保護自己。你研究的越多，你越有贏的信心；當你的信心增長時，你又會變得過度興奮，這個循環又開始了。
Losses that result from self-sabotage can be just as damaging, but they’re usually more subtle in nature. Making errors like putting in a sell for a buy or vice versa, or indulging yourself in some distracting activity at the most inopportune time are typical examples of how traders make sure they don’t win.
自毀導致的虧損是毀壞性的，但本質很微妙。當交易者無法確信自己會贏時，他就會把賣當作買，把買當作賣，在錯誤的時機做錯誤的事。
Why wouldn’t someone want to win? It’s really not a question of what someone wants, because I believe that all traders want to win. Yet, there are often conflicts about winning. Sometimes these conflicts are so powerful that we find our behavior is in direct conflict with what we want. These conflicts could stem from religious upbringing, work ethic or certain types of childhood trauma.
為什麽有人不想贏？因為我相信所有的交易者都想贏，所以這不是想要什麽的問題。然而，贏經常是有衝突的。有時候這些衝突太厲害了，我們會發現我們的行為和我們想要的直接發生衝突，這些衝突來自宗教信仰、工作倫理或童年時的特定創傷。
If these conflicts exist, it means that your mental environment is not completely aligned with your goals. In other words, not all parts of you would argue for the same outcome. Therefore, you can’t assume that you have the capacity to give yourself an unlimited amount of money just because you have learned how to trade and the money is there for the taking.
如果這些衝突存在，這意味著你的心理狀態和你的目標不一致。換句話說，你並沒有全心全意地追求同一個結果。你不能因為你學習了如何交易，你不能以為所有的錢都在那裏等你，所以你有能力得到所有的錢。
A futures broker at one of the major brokerage firms once commented that when it comes to his customers, he lives by the motto that all commodity traders are terminal, and it is his job to keep them happy until they’re gone. He said this facetiously, but there is a lot of truth to his statement. Obviously, if you lose more money than you make, you can’t survive. What’s less obvious, and one of the mysteries of being successful, is that if you win, you may still be terminal; that is, if you win and you haven’t learned how to create a healthy balance between confidence and restraint, or you haven’t learned how to recognize and compensate for any potential you have to self-destruct, you will sooner or later lose.
有一個期貨經紀人在一家大型的經紀公司做事，當談到他的客戶時，他認為“所有的商品交易者都會完蛋”，他的工作就是在他們完蛋前讓他們感到快樂。他是開玩笑說的，但他的話裏麵有很多真理。很顯然，如果你虧的錢比你賺的錢多，你無法生存。不太明顯的是，如果你贏了，你還有可能會完蛋。也就是說，如果你贏了，你不知道如何在自信和自控之間找到合理的平衡，你也不知道如何處理自己的自毀傾向，那麽你遲早還是要輸的。
If you are among those in the boom-and-bust cycle, consider this: If you could redo every losing trade that was the result of an error or recklessness, how much money would you have now? Based on these recalculated results, what would your equity curve look like? I’m sure many of you would fall into the category of consistent winners. Now think about how you responded to your losses when they occurred. Did you assume complete responsibility for them? Did you try to identify how you might change your perspective, attitude, or behavior? Or did you look to the market and wonder what you might learn about it to prevent such a thing from happening again? Obviously, the market has nothing to do with your potential for recklessness, nor does it have anything to do with the errors you make as a result of some internal conflict about deserving the money.
如果你處於先暴發後虧損的循環中，對於犯錯或輕率而虧損的交易，如果讓你重新交易，你現在會有多少資金？根據這個結果重新計算你的資金曲線，現在資金曲線會是什麽樣子？我相信很多人都能成為持續一致的贏家。現在再想想，如果虧損了，你會如何反應，你會承擔所有責任嗎？你會盡量去改變自己的觀點、態度或行為嗎？你會觀察市場並思考如何防止同樣的事再次發生嗎？顯然，市場和你的輕率無關，和你內部衝突而犯錯也無關。
Probably one of the hardest concepts for traders to effectively assimilate is that the market doesn’t create your attitude or state of mind; it simply acts as a mirror reflecting what’s inside back to you. If you are confident, it’s not because the market is making you feel that way; it is because your beliefs and attitudes are aligned in a way that allows you to step forward into an experience, take responsibility for the outcome, and extract the insight that’s been made available. You maintain your confident state of mind simply because you are constantly learning. Conversely, if you’re angry and afraid, it’s because you believe to some degree that the market creates your outcomes, not the other way around.
恐怕交易者最難徹底理解消化的概念是，你的態度和思維不是市場創造的，市場隻是反射你的內心。如果你自信，不是市場讓你自信的，是因為你的信念和態度合拍，讓你去實踐，去為結果負責，去深入理解。你能保持自信狀態是因為你一直在學習。相反，如果你憤怒，恐懼，那是因為你相信在某種程度上這是市場帶來的結果。
Ultimately, the worst consequence of not taking responsibility is that it keeps you in a cycle of pain and dissatisfaction. Think about it for a moment. If you’re not responsible for your results, then you can assume there’s nothing for you to learn, and you can stay exactly as you are. You won’t grow and you won’t change. As a result, you will perceive events in exactly the same way, and therefore respond to them in the same way, and get the same dissatisfying results.
最終，不承擔責任的最差結果就是你在痛苦和不滿中循環。想想吧。如果你不為自己的結果負責，那麽你就會認為沒有什麽好學的，你就會保持原樣。你不會成長，不會改變，結果就是你看待事物的觀點沒變，反應也沒變，不滿的結果也沒變。
Or, you might also assume the solution to your problems is to gain more market knowledge. It is always virtuous to learn, but in this case if you don’t take responsibility for your attitudes and perspective, then you’re learning something valuable for wrong reasons-reasons that will cause you to use what you’ve learned in inappropriate ways. Without realizing it, you’ll be using your knowledge to avoid the responsibility of taking risks. In the process, you end up creating the very things you are trying to avoid, keeping you in a cycle of pain and dissatisfaction.
或者，你以為解決問題的方式就是獲取更多的市場信息。學習總是好事，但是在本例中，如果你不為自己的態度和觀點負責，那麽你是在為錯誤的原因而學習——錯誤的原因會讓你不當地使用你所學到的東西。如果你沒意識到這點，你會用學到的知識去避免承擔風險的責任。在這個過程中，你創造了你一直在回避的東西，讓你在痛苦和不滿中循環。
However, there is one tangible benefit to be gained from blaming the market for what you wanted and didn’t get. You can temporarily shield yourself from your own harsh self-criticism. I say “temporarily” because, when you shift responsibility, you cut yourself off from whatever you needed to learn from the experience. Remember our definition of a winning attitude: a positive expectation of your efforts with an acceptance that whatever results you get are a perfect reflection of your level of development and what you need to learn to do better.
責怪市場並沒有給你帶來你想要的東西，但也有實在的好處。你可以暫時避免嚴厲的自責，我說“暫時”是因為當你推卸責任時，你拒絕了從經驗中學習的機會。記住我們對贏家態度的定義：對自己的努力有積極的期望，同時接受無論結果是什麽，那都是自己水平的完美反映，也是為了自己學的更好。
If you shift the blame in order to block the painful feelings that result from beating yourself up, all you’ve done is put an infected Band-Aid on the wound. You may think you have solved the problem, but the problem is only going to resurface later, worse than before. It has to, simply because you haven’t learned anything that would cause you to make the land of interpretations that would result in a more satisfying experience.
如果你為了回避懲罰自己所帶來的痛苦感覺，你就會責怪其它事物，這種做法相當於用感染過的邦迪去包紮傷口。你也許以為自己解決了問題，但問題隻是被推遲出現了，甚至會變得更壞。因為你學的東西不夠多，你不知道如何麵對問題，也不知道如何才能得到更滿意的結果，所以你隻是把問題向後推遲了而已。
Did you ever wonder why leaving money on the table is often more painful than taking a loss? When we lose, there are any number of ways in which we can shift the blame to the market and not accept responsibility. But when we leave money on the table, we can’t blame the market. The market didn’t do anything but give us exactly what we wanted, but for whatever reason, we weren’t capable of acting on the opportunity appropriately. In other words, there’s no way to rationalize the pain away.
你是否想過為什麽失算的交易比虧損還痛苦？當我們虧損時，我們有很多方法來責怪市場，不承擔責任。但是當我們進行失算的交易時，我們無法責怪市場。市場確實給了我們想要的東西，除此之外市場沒做什麽，但無論原因是什麽，我們都不能恰當地利用機會。換句話說，沒有辦法為痛苦找理由。
You are not responsible for what the market does or doesn’t do, but you are responsible for everything else that results from your trading activities. You are responsible for what you have learned, as well as for everything you haven’t learned yet that’s waiting to be discovered by you. The most efficient path to discovering what you need to be successful is to develop a winning attitude, because it’s an inherently creative perspective. Not only does a winning attitude open you up to what you need to learn; it also produces the land of mind-set that is most conducive to discovering something no one else has experienced.
你無法為市場做的或沒做的事負責，但你要為自己交易行為的任何結果負責。你要為自己學到的東西負責，還要為你沒有學到，但即將學到的任何東西負責。最有效的成功方法是形成贏家的態度，因為這是天生的創造性觀點。贏家態度不但告訴了你要學什麽，而且它會產生一種思維，這種思維可以發現別人沒有經曆過的東西。
Developing a winning attitude is the key to your success. The problem for many traders is that either they think they already have one, when they don’t, or they expect the market to develop the attitude for them by giving them winning trades. You are responsible for developing your own winning attitude. The market is not going to do it for you, and, I want to be as emphatic as I can, no amount of market analysis will compensate for developing a winning attitude if you lack one. Understanding the markets will give you the edge you need to create some winning trades, but your edge won’t make you a consistent winner if you don’t have a winning attitude.
形成贏家態度是成功的關鍵。很多交易者的問題是，要麽不知道自己沒有贏家的態度，卻以為自己有了贏家態度，要麽希望市場幫他們形成贏家態度。我想盡量強調一下，如果你沒有贏家態度，那麽你再會分析市場也不會有贏家的態度，你必須自己想辦法形成贏家的態度。了解市場確實有一定的優勢，但如果你沒有贏家態度，這些優勢不會讓你成為持續一致的贏家。
Certainly one could argue that some traders lose because they don’t understand enough about the markets and therefore they usually pick the wrong trades. As reasonable as this may sound, it has been my experience that traders with losing attitudes pick the wrong trades regardless of how much they know about the markets. In any case, the result is the same - they lose. On the other hand, traders with winning attitudes who know virtually nothing about the markets can pick winners; and if they know a lot about the markets, they can pick even more winners.
當然有人可以這樣爭論說，一些交易者虧損是因為他們不夠了解市場，因此他們選擇了錯誤的交易。這聽起來很有道理，但是根據我的經驗，無論他們多麽了解市場，隻要交易者沒有贏家的態度，他們還是會虧損的。無論在哪個場合，結果都是一樣——他們會虧損。另一方麵，有贏家態度的交易者，即使不了解市場，也會賺錢，如果他們非常了解市場，他們也會賺的更多。
If you want to change your experience of the markets from fearful to confident, if you want to change your results from an erratic equity curve to a steadily rising one, the first step is to embrace the responsibility and stop expecting the market to give you anything or do anything for you. If you resolve from this point forward to do it all yourself, the market can no longer be your opponent. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting yourself, you’ll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude.
如果你想把自己的市場經曆從痛苦變成自信，如果你想把你的資金曲線從反複無常變成穩步上漲，第一步就是承擔責任，不要期待市場會給你什麽或做什麽。如果你從這點開始努力，市場再也不會是你的敵人。如果你停止和市場鬥，這意味著你不再和自己鬥，你會吃驚地發現自己要學什麽，你學的是多麽快。承擔責任是贏家態度的基石。
CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND
第04章 持續一致性：一種思想狀態
I hope that after reading the first three chapters you are getting the idea that just because you are acting in the capacity of a trader, doesn’t mean that you’ve learned the appropriate ways to think about what you do. As I have already stressed several times, what separates the best traders from everyone else is not what they do or when they do it, but rather how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.
我希望當你讀了前麵三章以後，你能夠明白你在做交易並不意味著你已經學會了適當的思考方法。我已經說了幾次，把最優秀的交易者和其他人分開的不是做什麽或什麽時候做的問題，而是思維的問題。
If your goal is to trade like a professional and be a consistent winner, then you must start from the premise that the solutions are in your mind and not in the market. Consistency is a state of mind that has at its core certain fundamental thinking strategies that are unique to trading.
如果你的目標是像專業人士一樣交易，並成為持續一致性的贏家，那麽你必須明白一個前提，那就是解決方案在思維裏，不在市場裏。持續一致性是一種思維，它最核心基礎的思考策略在交易中是獨特的。
Experiencing a few or more winning trades can convince almost anyone that trading is easy. Recall your own experiences; think back to those trades that brought a stream of money flowing into your account when all you had done was make a simple decision to buy or sell. Now, combine the extremely positive feeling you get from winning and getting money with no effort, and it’s almost impossible not to conclude that making money as a trader is easy.
幾筆或多筆的贏利交易會讓任何人覺得交易是簡單的。回想一下你過去的經曆，想想過去你僅僅是做了幾個簡單的買賣決定，就有很多錢流進你的賬戶。此時結合贏利帶來的超級積極的感覺和不費吹灰之力賺錢的想法，那麽你自然會認為交易賺錢是輕鬆的。
But if that’s the case, if trading is so easy, then why is it so difficult to master? Why are so many traders at their wits’ end, grappling with the obvious contradiction? If it is true that trading is easy - and traders know it is because they’ve had the direct experience of how easy and effortless it is - then how can it also be possible that they can’t make what they’ve learned about the markets work for them over and over again? In other words, how do we account for the contradiction between what we believe about trading and our actual trading results over time?
但是如果交易真的如此輕鬆，為什麽很難掌握賺錢的方法呢？為什麽很多交易者絞盡腦汁地和明顯的矛盾事物做鬥爭？如果交易真的簡單——因為交易者確實有輕鬆賺錢的經曆，他們知道是簡單的——那為何他們學到的市場知識一而再再而三地讓他們失望？換句話說，他們如何麵對他們相信的東西和事實之間的矛盾？
THINKING ABOUT TRADING
思考交易
The answers are all in the way you think about it. The irony is that trading can be as much fun and as effortless as your experience of it has been on occasion; but experiencing these qualities consistently is a function of your perspective, your beliefs, your attitudes, or your mindset. Choose the term you are most comfortable with; they all refer to the same thing: Winning and consistency are states of mind in the same way that happiness, having fun, and satisfaction are states of mind.
答案取決於你如何思考。諷刺的是，交易可以像你曾經經曆過的那樣輕鬆有趣，但如果要想總是這樣，那麽你就需要正確的觀點、信念、態度或思想。請選擇一個你感覺最舒服的單詞，無論是什麽單詞，它們的含義都是一樣的：賺錢、持續一致性、幸福、有趣和滿足都是一樣的思想狀態。
Your state of mind is a by-product of your beliefs and attitudes. You can try to create consistency without having the appropriate beliefs and attitudes, but your results won’t be any different than if you try to be happy when you’re not having fun. When you’re not having fun, it can be very difficult to change your perspective to one where you, all of a sudden, start enjoying yourself.
你的思維狀態是你的信念和態度的副產品。你可以在沒有合適的信念和態度的前提下盡力去實現持續一致性，但就像苦中作樂一樣沒結果。當你苦中作樂時，很難在突然之間把痛苦的心情變成快樂的心情。
Of course, the circumstances of your situation could suddenly shift in a way that causes you to experience joy. But then your state of mind would be the result of an external shift in conditions, not a result of an internal shift in your attitude. If you depend on outside conditions and circumstances to make you happy (so that you always are enjoying yourself), then it is extremely unlikely that you will experience happiness on a consistent basis.
當然，你的環境會突然改變，讓你感到快樂。那麽你的思想狀態就是外部環境變化的結果，不是內部態度改變的結果。如果你依靠外部狀況和環境以讓你快樂（這樣你就能永遠感到快樂），那麽你幾乎沒可能持續地感到快樂。
However, you can greatly increase the possibility of your being happy by developing fun-type attitudes and, more specifically, by working on neutralizing the beliefs and attitudes that prevent you from having fun or enjoying yourself. Creating consistent success as a trader works the same way. You can’t rely on the market to make you consistently successful, any more than you can rely on the outside world to make you consistently happy. People who are truly happy don’t have to do anything in order to be happy. They are happy people who do things.
然而，你可以通過改變信念和態度的方法來讓自己變得快樂。交易者實現持續一致的成功是同樣的道理。你不能指望市場讓你持續一致性地成功，就像你不能指望外部世界讓你持續地快樂一樣。真正快樂的人不需要為了快樂而去做點什麽才感到快樂，他們是快樂做事的人。
Traders who are consistently successful are consistent as a natural expression of who they are. They don’t have to try to be consistent; they are consistent. This may seem like an abstract distinction, but it is vitally important that you understand the difference. Being consistent is not something you can try to be, because the very act of trying will negate your intent by mentally taking you out of the opportunity flow, making it less likely that you will win and more likely you will lose.
持續一致成功的交易者在持續一致地自然地表達自己。他們不需要盡力做到持續一致性，他們就是持續一致的。也許這話講起來很抽象，但明白其中的差別是非常重要的。如果你努力地去實現持續一致性，你會錯失一些機會，結果就是你賺的可能性不大，反而是虧的可能性大，這樣就違反了自己的初衷，所以說持續一致性不是你想做到就能做到的。
Your very best trades were easy and effortless. You didn’t have to try to make them easy; they were easy. There was no struggle. You saw exactly what you needed to see, and you acted on what you saw. You were in the moment, a part of the opportunity flow. When you’re in the flow, you don’t have to try, because everything you know about the market is available to you. Nothing is being blocked or hidden from your awareness, and your actions seem effortless because there’s no struggle or resistance.
最好的交易必定是簡單輕鬆的。你不必讓它們變得輕鬆，它們本來就輕鬆，沒有讓你掙紮的跡象。你看見的就是你想看見的，你根據看見的行動。機會在，你就在。當你抓住了機會的時候，因為你了解市場，所以你不必努力做什麽。沒有什麽能蒙蔽你，或躲過你的意識，因為沒有掙紮和阻力，所以你的交易就很輕鬆。
On the other hand, having to try indicates that there is some degree of resistance or struggle. Otherwise, you would just be doing it and not have to try to be doing it. It also indicates that you’re trying to get what you want from the market. While it seems natural to think this way, it’s a perspective fraught with difficulties. The best traders stay in the flow because they don’t try to get anything from the market; they simply make themselves available so they can take advantage of whatever the market is offering at any given moment. There’s a huge difference between the two perspectives.
另一方麵，如果你要努力，那就意味著有某種程度的阻力或掙紮。要不然，你僅僅去做就行了，不必努力。這還意味著你想努力從市場得到你想要的東西。當你很自然地這麽想時，你的觀點充滿了不快和困難。因為最優秀的交易者並不想努力地從市場得到什麽，他們隻是在市場提供機會的時候盡量利用自身的優勢抓住機會，所以他們總是有機會的。這兩個觀點有巨大的區別。
In Chapter 3, I briefly illustrated how our minds are wired to avoid both physical and emotional pain. If you trade from the perspective of trying to get what you want or what you expect from the markets, what happens when the market doesn’t behave in a way that will fulfill your expectations? Your mental defense mechanisms kick in to compensate for the difference between what you want and what you’re not getting, so that you don’t experience any emotional pain. Our minds are designed to automatically block threatening information or find a way to obscure that information, in order to shield us from the emotional discomfort we naturally feel when we don’t get what we want. You won’t realize it in the moment, but you will pick and choose information that is consistent with what you expect, so that you can maintain a pain-free state of mind.
在第03章，我簡單地說明了我們的思維如何同時避免身體痛苦和情緒痛苦。如果你交易的目的是努力得到你想要的，或者希望市場給你你想要的東西，那麽如果市場並沒有如你所願，會如何？你精神上的自衛係統會起作用，以補償你想要和沒得到之間的落差，這樣你就不會感到情緒痛苦。當我們沒有得到我們想要的東西時，我們就會感覺不舒服，我的思維可以自動地阻擋對我們不利的信息或掩飾不利的信息，目的就是為了避免讓我們感覺不舒服。
However, in the process of trying to maintain a pain-free state of mind, you also take yourself out of the opportunity flow and enter the realm of the “could have,” the “should have,” the “would have,” and the “if only.” Everything that you could have, should have, or would have recognized in the moment appeared invisible, then all becomes painfully evident after the fact, after the opportunity is long gone.
然而，在盡量維持沒有痛苦的思想狀態的過程中，你自己錯過了機會流，進入了“應該”、“本該”、“要是那樣”、“如果那樣”的心理狀態。有很多機會，本來你是應該看見的，但是你沒看見，當錯失機會以後，你又變得很痛苦。
To be consistent, you have to learn to think about trading in such a way that you’re no longer susceptible to conscious or subconscious mental processes that cause you to obscure, block, or pick and choose information on the basis of what will make you happy, give you what you want, or avoid pain.
為了給你你想要的東西，為了讓你避免痛苦，為了讓你快樂，你的意識或潛意識會阻止對你不利的信息並刻意篩選出對你有利的信息。要想實現持續一致性，你的交易思想不能受這種意識或潛意識的影響。
The threat of pain generates fear, and fear is the source of 95 percent of the errors you are likely to make. Certainly, you can’t be consistent or experience the flow if you’re consistently making errors, and you will make errors, as long as you’re afraid that what you want or what you expect won’t happen. Furthermore, everything you attempt to do as a trader will be a struggle, and it will seem as if you are struggling against the market or that the market is against you personally. But, the reality is that it’s all taking place inside your mind. The market doesn’t perceive the information it makes available; you do. If there’s a struggle, it is you who are struggling against your own internal resistance, conflicts and fears.
痛苦的威脅產生恐懼，恐懼則是你95%的錯誤的根源。當然，如果你總是在犯錯，你不能實現持續一致性或抓住每次機會，隻要你害怕或擔心你期望的事不會發生，你就會犯錯。而且，你的交易做起來像鬥爭一樣，你在和市場鬥，市場也在和你鬥。但實際上是你的內心在鬥。市場並不知道它產生的信息的含義，你則會去解讀市場的信息。如果說有鬥爭，那是你在和自己內心的阻力、衝突和恐懼鬥爭。
Now, you may be asking yourself, how can I think about trading in such a way that I’m no longer afraid and, therefore, no longer susceptible to the mental processes that cause me to block, obscure, or pick and choose information? The answer is: Learn to accept the risk.
也許你會問自己，我如何才能做到在交易時不恐懼？如何才能拒絕導致我阻止、看不清或刻意篩選信息的心理過程的影響？答案是：學習接受風險。
REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK
完全明白風險
Other than the many issues surrounding responsibility that we discussed in Chapter 3, there isn’t anything about trading that is more central to your success and also more misunderstood than the concept of accepting the risk. As I mentioned in the first chapter, most traders erroneously assume that because they are engaged in the inherently risky activity of putting on and taking off trades, they are also accepting that risk. I will repeat that this assumption couldn’t be further from the truth.
我們在第03章談論了很多關於責任的因素，其中接受風險的概念最容易讓人誤解，也是最關鍵的成功因素。我在第01章說了，大部分交易者錯誤地認為他們的交易有風險，所以他們也接受了風險。我要重複說一遍，這個想法和事實是不一樣的。
Accepting the risk means accepting the consequences of your trades without emotional discomfort or fear. This means that you must learn how to think about trading and your relationship with the markets in such a way that the possibility of being wrong, losing, missing out, or leaving money on the table doesn’t cause your mental defense mechanisms to kick in and take you out of the opportunity flow. It doesn’t do you any good to take the risk of putting on a trade if you are afraid of the consequences, because your fears will act on your perception of information and your behavior in a way that will cause you to create the very experience you fear the most, the one you are trying to avoid.
接受風險意味著接受交易的結果，同時不能帶有情緒上的不安或恐懼。這意味著你必須思考你和市場的關係，讓可能產生的犯錯、虧損、錯失良機或不利的交易不會引起你心理自衛係統起作用，導致你失去了機會。因為恐懼會影響你對信息的看法，也會影響你的行為，你越是回避恐懼，結果恐懼還是會接踵而來，所以說如果你害怕交易的結果，僅僅說自己接受了風險是沒用的。
I am offering you a specific thinking strategy composed of a set of beliefs that will keep you focused, in the moment, and in the flow. With this perspective, you will not be trying to get anything from the market or to avoid anything. Rather, you will let the market unfold and you will make yourself available to take advantage of whatever situations you define as opportunities.
我會告訴你一個特定的思考策略，它包括一套信念，會讓你在交易時聚焦於所有的機會。有了這個認知，你不必再努力從市場得到什麽或避免什麽。而且，市場會在你麵前展開，你會抓住所有的優勢。
When you make yourself available to take advantage of an opportunity, you don’t impose any limitations or expectations on the market’s behaviour. You are satisfied to let the market do whatever it’s going to do. However, in the process of doing something, the market will create certain conditions you define and perceive as opportunities. You act on those opportunities to the best of your ability, but your state of mind is not dependent upon or affected by the market’s behavior.
當你開始利用優勢捕捉機會時，你不要對市場的行為有任何限製或期望。你已經習慣了市場要怎麽樣就怎麽樣。然而，在市場的行進過程中，市場會製造一些你能識別的機會，你盡量抓住這些機會，但你的思想還是獨立的，你不會受市場行為的影響。
If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market’s behavior, the struggle will cease to exist. When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy. At that point, you can take full advantage of all your skills, analytical or otherwise, to eventually realize your potential as a trader.
如果你能形成一種思想，不受市場行為的影響，那麽你內心的掙紮就沒有了。一旦你內心的掙紮沒有了，所有事都變的輕鬆。此時你可以利用所有的優勢、技術、分析或其它東西以最終成為一名交易者。
Here’s the challenge! How do you accept the risks of trading without emotional discomfort and fear, when at the moment you perceive the risk, you simultaneously feel discomfort and fear? In other words, how do you remain confident and pain-free when you are absolutely certain you can be proved wrong, lose money, miss out, or leave money on the table? As you can see, your fear and feeling of discomfort are completely justified and rational. Each of those possibilities becomes real the moment you contemplate interacting with the market.
你會遇到一個難題！當你看見風險時，你會立刻感到不安和恐懼，那麽你如何做到接受風險時不再感到不安和恐懼呢？換句話說，如果你肯定自己會犯錯、會虧錢、會錯過機會、或遇到不利的交易，你如何能保持自信和無憂無慮呢？你自己也明白恐懼和不安完全是正常的，是合理的。當你想到交易時，恐懼和不安的可能性都是真實存在的。
However, as true as all of these possibilities are for every trader, what isn’t true or the same for every trader is what it means to be wrong, lose, miss out, or leave money on the table. Not everyone shares the same beliefs and attitudes about these possibilities and, therefore, we don’t share the same emotional sensitivities. In other words, not everyone is afraid of the same things. This may seem obvious, but I assure you it is not. When we’re afraid, the emotional discomfort we feel in the moment is so real that it’s beyond question, and it’s natural to assume that everyone shares our reality.
然而，對每個交易者來說這些可能性都是真實的，每個交易者覺得不真實或一樣的是犯錯、虧損、錯過機會或遇到不利交易的含義。不是每個人對可能性的信念和態度都一樣的，因此每個人的情緒敏感度也是不一樣的。換句話說，並不是每個人都害怕同樣的事。這也許看起來明顯，但我想說其實沒有這麽明顯。當我們感到害怕時，情緒上的不安太真實了，因此會覺得每個人都有同樣的不安。
I will give you a perfect example of what I am talking about. I recently worked with a trader, who was deathly afraid of snakes. As far as he was concerned, he had always been afraid of snakes because he couldn’t recall a time when he wasn’t. Now he is married and has a three-year-old daughter. One evening, while his wife was out of town, his daughter and he were invited to a friend’s house for dinner. Unbeknownst to my client, his friends child had a pet snake.
我將告訴你一個具體的例子。我最近和一個交易者溝通，他超級怕蛇，他已經不記得他為什麽怕蛇了，隻知道他一直怕蛇。現在他已結婚，有一個3歲的女兒。一天晚上，她的妻子去其它城市了，他的朋友邀請他和他女兒一起去吃晚飯。我的客戶並不知道他朋友的小孩有一條寵物蛇。
When the friends child brought out the snake for everyone to see, my client freaked and practically leapt to the other side of the room to get as far away from the snake as possible. His daughter, on the other hand, was completely enthralled with the snake, and wouldn’t leave it alone.
當朋友的小孩把蛇拿出來給所有人看時，我的朋友嚇壞了，差不多跳到房間的另一邊去了。他的女兒則完全相反，她對蛇非常著迷，不願意離開蛇。
When he related this story to me, he said that he was not only shocked by the unexpected confrontation with the snake, but that he was just as shocked by his daughter’s reaction. She wasn’t afraid and he assumed that she would be. I explained to him that his fear was so intense and his attachment to his daughter was so great that it was inconceivable to him that his daughter would not automatically share his reality about snakes. But then I pointed out, there really wasn’t any way she could have shared his experience, unless he specifically taught her to be afraid of snakes or she had had her own painful frightening experience. Otherwise, without anything to the contrary in her mental system, the most likely reaction to her first encounter with a living snake would be pure, unadulterated fascination.
當他告訴我這個故事時，他說他不但被突然出現的蛇嚇壞了，而且他被他女兒的舉動嚇壞了。他以為她會怕蛇，但她並不怕蛇。我對他解釋說，因為他太怕蛇了，而他和女兒的關係又很親，所以當他女兒不怕蛇時，他就會覺得不可思議。但是我指出，她實在沒有必要也怕蛇，除非有人叫她注意蛇或者她自己被蛇嚇過。因此，既然她的思維裏沒有不好的印象，那麽她第一次見到蛇的反應就是純粹的著迷。
Just as my client assumed that his daughter would be afraid of snakes, most traders assume the best traders, like themselves, are also afraid of being wrong, losing, missing out, and leaving money on the table. They assume that the best traders somehow neutralize their fears with an inordinate amount of courage, nerves of steel, and self-control.
就像這個客戶以為他的女兒會怕蛇，大部分交易者以為最優秀的交易者像他們一樣害怕犯錯、虧損、錯過機會、遇到不利的交易。他們以為最優秀的交易者用超級勇氣、鋼鐵意誌和自我控製中和了他們的恐懼。
Like many other things about trading, what seems to make sense, just isn’t the case. Certainly, any one or all of these characteristics may be present in any top trader. But what is not true is that these characteristics play any role in their superior performance. Needing courage, nerves of steel, or self-control would imply an internal conflict where one force is being used to counteract the effects of another. Any degree of struggle, trying, or fear associated with trading will take you out of the moment and flow and, therefore, diminish your results.
交易中的很多事都是看起來有道理，但其實沒道理。當然，最頂尖的交易者也許具備以上所有的特點，但並非是這些特點造就了他們的超級業績。勇氣、鋼鐵般的意誌和自我控製會在內心發生衝突。交易方麵的任何掙紮、努力或恐懼會讓你失去機會，如此一來你的收益就減少了。
This is where professional traders really separate themselves from the crowd. When you accept the risk the way the pros do, you won’t perceive anything that the market can do as threatening. If nothing is threatening, there’s nothing to fear. If you’re not afraid, you don’t need courage. If you’re not stressed, why would you need nerves of steel? And if you’re not afraid of your potential to get reckless, because you have the appropriate monitoring mechanisms in place, then you have no need for self-control. As you contemplate the implications of what I am saying, I want you to keep something in mind: Very few people who go into trading start out with the appropriate beliefs and attitudes about responsibility and risk. There are some who do but it’s rare. Everyone else goes through the same cycle I described in the example of the novice trader: We start out carefree, then become scared, and our fears continually diminish our potential.
這就是專業交易者和大眾不同的地方。如果你像專業交易者一樣接受風險，你就不會覺得市場在威脅你。如果沒有什麽東西能威脅你，那麽也就沒有什麽可怕的了。如果你不害怕，那麽你就不需要勇氣。如果你沒有壓力，為什麽你需要鋼鐵般的意誌？因為你有合適的監控係統，你不怕變得輕率，那麽你就不需要自我控製。如果你仔細考慮了我說的話，我希望你記住：隻有極少數的人在開始交易時具有正確的關於責任和風險的信念以及態度。有這樣的人，但很少。其他人都要經曆我所說的新手的情況：我們開始交易時無憂無慮，然後變得恐懼，恐懼讓我們的潛能消失了。
The traders who break through the cycle and ultimately make it are the ones who eventually learn to stop avoiding and start embracing the responsibility and the risk. Most of those who successfully break the cycle don’t make the shift in thinking until they have experienced so much pain from large losses that it has the positive effect of stripping away their illusions about the nature of trading.
那些不再回避並擁抱責任和風險的交易者能打破循環並最終成功。大部分打破循環的人在思維方麵還沒有改變，當他們經曆了重大痛苦並遭受巨大虧損時，他們才會放棄對交易的幻想。
With respect to your development, the how of their transformation is not that important, because in most cases it happened inadvertently. In other words, they weren’t completely aware of the shifts that were taking place inside their mental environment until they experienced the positive effects their new perspective had on the ways in which they interacted with the market. This is why very few top traders can really explain what accounts for their success, except to speak in axioms like “cut your losses” and “go with the flow.” What is important is that you understand it is completely possible to think the way the professionals do and to trade without fear, even though your direct experience as a trader would argue otherwise.
關於你的發展，它是如何變化的並不重要，因為大多時都是不經意間發生的。換句話說，他們思想環境已經發生了變化，但他們自己並不知道，直到他們用新的觀點研究市場並感受到積極效果時才會明白這種變化。這就是為什麽隻有極少數頂尖交易者能解釋成功的原因是什麽，而不是僅僅說：“截斷虧損”和“順勢交易”。即使你的個人經曆告訴你恐懼是正常的，但是像專業人士一樣不帶任何恐懼心理去交易是可能的，明白這點很重要。
ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT
讓你的心理環境保持一致
Now we’re going to start zeroing in on exactly how you can align your mental environment in order to accept the risk and function like a professional trader. Most of what I’ve discussed up to this point was designed to get you ready to do the real work. I’m going to teach you a thinking strategy that has, at its core, a firm belief in probabilities and edges. With this new thinking strategy, you’ll learn how to create a new relationship with the market, one that disassociates your trading from what it typically means to be wrong or to lose, and that precludes you from perceiving anything about the market as threatening. When the threat of pain is gone, the fear will correspondingly disappear, as will the fear-based errors you are susceptible to. You will be left with a mind that is free to see what is available and to act on what you see.
現在讓我們認真看看究竟你要如何調整你的心理環境並像專業交易者一樣接受風險。之前我就談了這方麵的內容，目的是為了讓你做好實戰的準備。我準備教你一個思考策略，它的核心就是讓你堅信概率和優勢。有了這種思考策略，你將學會如何和市場建立新的關係，這種新的關係不再用對錯來判斷交易，你不會再認為市場的每個方麵都是具有威脅性的。當痛苦的威脅消失了，恐懼也會相應地消失，你也不會再因為恐懼而犯錯。最後剩下來的思維就是看見機會並抓住機會。
Getting to this carefree, fearless state of mind, in spite of being burned over and over again, will take some work, but it’s not going to be so difficult as you may think. In fact, by the time you’ve finished reading this book, most of you will be amazed at how simple the solutions to your problems really are.
實現這種無憂無慮，不恐懼的思維確實要經曆一次又一次的打擊，確實需要一些努力，但也沒有你想的那麽難。實際上，當你讀完本書時，你會吃驚地發現解決問題的方案是多麽的簡單。
In many respects, a state of mind or perspective is like software code. You could have several thousand lines of perfectly written code, with only one flawed line, and in that one flawed line there might be only one character out of place. Depending on the purpose of the software and where that flaw is in relation to everything else, that one misplaced character could ruin the performance of an otherwise perfectly written system. You see, the solution was simple: Fix the misplaced character, and everything runs smoothly. However, finding the error or even knowing it exists in the first place can take considerable expertise.
在很多方麵，思維或認知就像軟件代碼。你寫了幾千行程序，隻有一行有錯誤，而錯的這行隻是一個字母錯位了。根據軟件的作用和錯誤的性質，這個錯位的字母會毀了一個完美的軟件係統。你也知道解決方案很簡單：隻要把錯位的字母改好，一切就會正常了。然而，要想知道這個錯誤在哪裏或找到這個錯誤是需要很多經驗的。
When it comes to the ideal trading mentality, everybody is a certain psychological distance away. In other words, virtually everyone starts out with flawed software code. I use terms like clicks or degrees to indicate psychological distance but these terms don’t imply a specific distance. So, for example, many of you will find that you are only, let’s say, one click away in perspective from the ideal mind-set. That one click could represent one or two erroneous or misplaced assumptions you have about the nature of trading. As you reflect upon some of the ideas presented in this book, your perspective may shift. To use the analogy of software code, that shift would be equivalent to finding the flawed line in your mental system and replacing it with something that works properly.
關於理想的交易心理，每個人在心理上和它都有一定差距。換句話說，幾乎每個人一開始的軟件都有錯誤代碼。我用基點或程度來表達心理差距，但不是指真實的距離。在此舉個例子，很多人發現自己離理想的思維隻有一個基點。也許這一個基點代表了你對交易本質的1，2個錯誤或不當的認知。隻要你想到了本書所談論的一些思想，你的認知也許就會改變。用軟件代碼做比喻，這個改變就相當於找到心理係統的錯誤代碼並用正確的代碼替代它。
People normally describe this kind of internal mental shift as an “ah, ha” experience, or the moment when the light goes on. Everyone has had these kinds of experiences, and there are some common qualities associated with them. First, we usually feel different. The world even seems different, as if it had suddenly changed. Typically, we might say at the moment of the breakthrough something like, “Why didn’t you tell me this before?” or, “It was right in front of me the whole time, but I just didn’t see it” or, “It’s so simple; why couldn’t I see it?” Another interesting phenomenon of the “ah, ha” experience, is that sometimes within moments, although the amount of time can vary, we feel as if this new part of our identity has always been a part of who we are. It then becomes difficult to believe that we were ever the way we were before we had the experience.
對於這種心理轉變或突然的感悟，人們通常用“啊，哈”來表達。每個人都有這樣的經曆，這些經曆具有某些共同的特征。首先，我們通常感覺不同了，似乎這個世界在突然之間變了。在比較典型的情況下，我們會在頓悟的瞬間說：“為什麽你不早點告訴我？”或“它一直就在我麵前，我竟然沒看見。”或“太簡單了，我怎麽就不知道呢？”這種“啊，哈”的經曆還伴隨著一個有趣的現象，在極少數情況下，我們會在瞬間發現我們早就知道這個結論，在這之前是很難相信我們以前就是這麽認為的。
In short, you may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.
簡單說，也許你早就有了關於持續一致交易的認知。但是有這個認知並不能自動地讓它變成你的功能。認知不一定是信念。你不能以為學習並接受新東西和相信它並以此作為行動依據是一樣的，它們不在一個層次上。
Take the example of my client who is afraid of snakes. He is certainly aware that not all snakes are dangerous, and that learning how to make a distinction between the ones that are dangerous and the ones that aren’t would not be difficult. Will learning how to make these distinctions suddenly cause him not to be afraid of “non-dangerous snakes”? Can we assume that his awareness will drop down to a level in his mental environment where he can now interact with snakes without fear or immobility? No, we cannot make this assumption. His awareness that some snakes aren’t dangerous and his fear of snakes can exist side by side in his mental environment, as a contradiction to each other. You could confront him with a snake and he might readily acknowledge that he knows the snake is not dangerous and wouldn’t hurt him; but, at the same time, he would still find it extremely difficult to touch the snake, even if he wanted to.
我拿那個怕蛇的客戶舉例子。他當然知道不是所有的蛇都有危險，讓他學習區別哪種蛇是危險的，哪種是不危險的，這是沒有困難的。知道了不同蛇的不同特征能讓他突然變得不再害怕“不具有危害的蛇”嗎？是不是可以認為他的恐懼意識會降低到一個心理水平，讓他不再害怕和蛇玩，或不再見到蛇就跑開？不，我們不能這麽想。他心理知道有些蛇是不危險的，但這個想法和他對蛇的恐懼感互相交織在一起。你可以拿一條蛇接近他，也許他知道這條蛇沒有危險，不會傷害他，同時，即使他想去摸摸蛇，他會發現要做到這點是超級困難的。
Does this mean that he is doomed to be afraid of snakes for the rest of his life? Only if he wants to be. It’s really a matter of willingness. It’s certainly possible to neutralize his fear, but he will have to work at it, and working at anything requires sufficient motivation. Many of us have what we know to be irrational fears and simply choose to live with the contradiction because we don’t want to go through the emotional work that is necessary to overcome the fear.
這是不是意味著他一輩子注定怕蛇了？如果他想這樣，那麽就是這樣了，這完全是意願的事。他當然有辦法減少自己的恐懼感，但他必須在這方麵努力，努力則需要足夠的動機。我們很多人都有不合理的恐懼感，因為我們不想通過努力克服這樣的恐懼感，所以我們就簡單地生活在矛盾中。
In this example, the contradiction is obvious. However, in my many years of working with traders, I have uncovered several typical contradictions and conflicts surrounding the issues of risk and responsibility, where holding two or more conflicting beliefs can easily cancel out your positive intentions, no matter how motivated you are to be successful. The problem is that none of these contradictions are really obvious, at least not at first glance.
在這個例子中，矛盾是明顯的。然而，我和交易者在一起研究了很多年，我發現無論你追求成功的動力多麽充足，關於風險和責任的幾個典型的矛盾和衝突以及2個或更多的互相衝突的信念會很容易地打消你積極的意圖。問題就是，這些矛盾不明顯，至少不是一眼就能看出的。
Contradictory beliefs, however, aren’t the only problems. What about assertions like “I’m a risk taker,” that traders typically assume have dropped down to the functional level of a belief when, in fact, the underlying dynamics of the way they perceive the market indicates they are doing everything possible to avoid risk.
然而，矛盾的信念不是唯一的問題。就像有人說：“我是可以接受風險的人”，這個交易者以為自己的信念是有效的，實際上，他對市場內在的認識表明他在努力避免風險。
Contradictory beliefs and nonfunctional awareness represent flawed mental software code; code that destroys your ability to stay focused and accomplish your goals; code that makes it seem as if you simultaneously have one foot on the accelerator and the other on the brake; code that gives learning how to trade a mysterious quality that will be challenging in a fun way at first, but usually turns into pure, unadulterated exasperation.
矛盾的信念和不起作用的意識代表了錯誤的心理軟件代碼，這樣的代碼破壞了你聚焦的能力，讓你無法實現目標；這樣的代碼看起來就像你一隻腳踩著油門，另一隻腳踩著刹車；這樣的代碼教你用新的方法交易，你在一開始會覺得有趣，但是通常會變成純粹的未成年人的惱怒。
When I was in college in the late 1960s, one of my favorite movies was Cool Hand Luke, starring Paul Newman. It was a very popular movie back then, so I’m sure some of you have seen it on late-night TV. Luke was in a Georgia chain gang. After he escaped and was caught for the second time, the warden and guards were determined not to let Luke make fools of them a third time. So while forcing him to do an inordinate amount of work with no rest and giving him intermittent beatings, they kept asking, “Have you got your mind right yet, Luke?” Eventually, after considerable suffering, Luke finally told the prison bosses that he had his mind right. They said that if he didn’t, and tried to escape again, they’d kill him for sure. Of course, Luke attempted another escape, and true to their word, the guards killed him.
60年代末我在讀大學，當時我最喜歡的一部電影是保羅•紐曼主演的《鐵窗喋血》。這部電影在當時很流行，所以我相信有些人後來會在電視上麵看過這部電影。電影中的盧克在喬治亞州服刑。當他第二次越獄，被抓住後，監獄長和守衛都覺得再也不能被盧克愚弄了。所以他們逼他做很多事，還會時不時地打他，他們一直在說：“盧克，你想清楚了沒有？”盧克受了不少苦，最後告訴監獄長他想清楚了。他們說，如果他還沒想清楚，如果還越獄，他們肯定會殺了他。當然了，盧克再次企圖越獄，守衛們真的殺了他。
Like Luke, many traders, whether they realize it or not, are trying to have it their way by beating the market; as a result, they get financially and emotionally killed. There are easier, infinitely more satisfying ways of getting what you want from the market, but first you have to be willing to “get your mind right.”
很多交易者就像盧克一樣，他們不管自己是不是真的想清楚了，他們隻想戰勝市場，結果到了最後他們都破產絕望了。其實有更輕鬆的，很多更好的方法從市場中得到你想要的東西，但首先你要“想清楚”。
CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION
第05章 認知的動力
One of the primary objectives of this book is to teach you how to take the threat of pain out of market information. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information. From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering.
本書的基本目的之一是教你如何去除市場信息中痛苦的威脅。市場不會製造快樂的信息，也不會製造痛苦的信息。從市場的角度來說，它們僅僅是信息。看起來似乎是市場讓你按照一定的方式做事，但其實不是這樣。無論你的思維是否有助於你在市場中利用優勢捕捉到機會，其實是你的心理在解讀信息，並讓你產生相應的感受。
Professionals don’t perceive anything about the markets as painful; therefore, no threat exists for them. If there’s no threat, there’s nothing to defend against. As a result, there isn’t any reason for their conscious or subconscious defense mechanisms to kick in. That’s why professionals can see and do things that mystify everyone else. They’re in the flow, because they’re perceiving an endless stream of opportunities, and when they’re not in the flow, the very best of the best can recognize that fact and then compensate by either scaling back or not trading at all.
專業交易者不會把市場的任何信息看成是痛苦的，因此，就沒有什麽能威脅他們。如果沒有威脅，就沒有什麽要防範的，所以他們的意識或潛意識方麵的防範係統就不會自動起作用。這就是為什麽專業交易者的認知和行為都讓別人迷惑不解。因為他們看見了無限的機會，所以他們捕捉到了機會；如果他們錯過了機會，最頂尖的交易者會發現這個事實，然後他們會通過降低倉位或觀望的方式來應對這種局麵。
If your goal is to be able to trade like the professionals, you must be able to see the market from an objective perspective, without distortion. You must be able to act without resistance or hesitation, but with the appropriate amount of positive restraint to counteract the negative effects of overconfidence or euphoria. In essence, your objective is to be able to create a unique state of mind, a traders mentality. When you’ve accomplished this, everything else about your success as a trader will fall into place.
如果你的目標是像專業交易者那樣交易，你必須用客觀的態度來看待市場，不能對市場有曲解。你在交易時不能有阻力，也不能猶豫，還必須用積極的態度克服過分自信或過分興奮帶來的消極效果。總而言之，你的目標就是形成交易者的思維。當你實現了這些目標，關於成功交易的任何方麵都會各就各位。
To help you achieve that objective, I’m going to give you a way to redefine your relationship to market information so that there will be little or no potential to perceive any of it as threatening. By “redefine,” I mean to change your perspective and operate out of a mental framework that keeps you focused on the opportunities available instead of tapping you into emotional pain.
為了幫助你實現這個目標，我將教你重新定義你和市場信息的關係，這樣就你不會或很少會把市場看成是威脅。我說“重新定義”，意思是說改變你的認知和心理框架，讓你專注於機會，而不是感到情緒痛苦。
DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE
為你的心理軟件找錯
In other words, we want to get the bugs out of our mental software code and get our minds right. Doing this effectively will require an understanding of the nature of mental energy and how you can use that energy to change a perspective that is generating an unwanted, negative, emotional response to market information. There’s much to learn, but I think you will be amazed at how some simple changes can make a huge difference in your trading results.
換句話說，我們想把心理軟件裏麵的錯誤找出來，讓自己的思維是正確的。要想有效地做到這點，就要了解心理能量的本質，還要知道如何利用這個能量改變你從市場信息中得到的不想要的、消極的、情緒化的認知。要學的東西很多，但你會吃驚地發現簡單的改變就能讓你的收益發生巨大的變化。
The process of trading starts with perceiving an opportunity. Without the perception of an opportunity, we wouldn’t have a reason to trade. So I think it is only fitting that we start our examination of mental energy by breaking down the process of perception. What are the underlying dynamics of perception? What factors determine how we perceive information or what we perceive in relationship to what is available? How is perception connected with what we experience at any given moment?
交易是從看到機會開始的，如果沒有看到機會，我們沒有理由去交易。所以我想通過解剖認知的過程就能開始了解到心理能量。認知下麵的動力是什麽？什麽因素能決定我們的認知方式？什麽因素能決定我們對信息的認知？我們在任意時刻的認知是如何和我們的經曆聯係起來的？
Probably the easiest way to understand the dynamics of perception and answer these questions is to think of everything (and I do mean everything) that exist in, on, and around this planet as a collection of forces - forces that generate information about the properties, characteristics, and traits that make them uniquely what they are.
要想回答這些問題並理解認知的動力，最簡單的方法就是把所有事物（我確實是指所有事物）——我們這個星球上所有的事物都是一種力量的集合體——力量產生了關於性質、特點和特色的信息，這些信息用獨特的方式表明它們是什麽。
Everything that exists outside of our bodies - all plants and all categories of life; all planetary phenomena in the form of weather conditions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions; all active and inert physical matter; and all non-corporeal phenomena such as light, sound waves, microwaves, and radiation - generates information about the nature of its existence. That information has the potential to act as a force on one of our five physical senses.
我們身體之外的任何東西——所有的星球和所有的生命；所有的天氣現象、地震和火山爆發；動態的和靜止的物體；所有的非生命現象，比如光、聲波、微波和輻射——所有這些產生了關於自然存在的信息。這些信息有可能會對我們的5個感官產生作用。
Before we go any further, notice that I use the verb “generate” in an all-inclusive way implying that everything is in an active state of expression, including inanimate objects. To illustrate why I do that, let’s look at something as simple as a rock. It’s an inanimate object, composed of unique atoms and molecules expressing themselves as a rock. I can use the active verb “expressing” because the atoms and molecules that make up the rock are in constant motion. So, even though the rock doesn’t appear active except in the most abstract sense, it has characteristics and properties that will act as forces on our senses, causing us to experience and make distinctions about the nature of its existence. For example, a rock has texture, and that texture acts as a force on our sense of touch if we run our fingers across the rock’s surface. A rock has shape and color, which act as a force on our vision; the rock takes up space that no other object can occupy, so that we see it instead of an empty space or some other object. A rock can also have an odor that acts as a force on our sense of smell, or taste like something, although I haven’t licked any rocks lately to find out.
在更深入的講解之前，請注意我用了“產生”這個動詞，這表明任何事物都在表達自己，包括非生物。為了說明我為什麽這麽做，讓我們看看簡單的石頭。它是非生物，獨特的原子和分子表明它們是石頭。我可以用動詞“表達”，因為組成石頭的原子和分子在不停地運動。所以，即使石頭看起來沒有動，它們的特點和性質對我們的感覺有作用力，讓我們利用經驗就可以區別它們，並知道它們的存在。比如，石頭有紋路，如果我們用手指摸石頭，我們能感覺到紋路。石頭有形狀和顏色，對我們的視覺有作用力。石頭占據的空間，其它東西就不能占據了，所以我們能在空間上感覺到石頭是存在的，而不是空的或是其它東西。石頭還有味道，對我們的嗅覺和味覺有作用力，雖然我自己並沒有舔過石頭。
When we encounter anything in the environment that expresses its properties and characteristics, an exchange of energy takes place. Energy from the outside, in the form of whatever is expressing itself, gets transformed by our nervous system into electrical impulses and then gets stored in our inner, mental environment. To be more specific, whatever we are seeing, hearing, tasting, smelling, or feeling through our senses gets transformed into electrical impulses of energy and stored in our mental environment as a memory and/or distinction about the nature of the way things exist.
不管在什麽環境下遇到了什麽，如果它在表達自己的性質和特點，那麽就有能量交換。外部的能量，不管它在表達什麽，通過我們的神經係統變成電脈衝，然後儲存到內部思想環境裏。更具體地說，不管是什麽，我們看見的、聽見的、嚐到的、聞到的或感覺到的，都變成了電脈衝的能量，以記憶的形式存儲在思想環境裏並表明它們存在的本質。
I think all of this is fairly self-evident to most people, but there are some profound implications here that aren’t self-evident, and we typically take them completely for granted. First of all, there’s a cause-and-effect relationship that exists between ourselves and everything else that exists in the external environment. As a result, our encounters with external forces create what I am going to call “energy structures” inside our minds. The memories, distinctions, and, ultimately, the beliefs we acquire throughout our lives exist in our mental environment in the form of structured energy. Structured energy is an abstract concept. You might be asking yourself, “How does energy take shape or form?” Before I answer this question, an even more fundamental question needs to be addressed. How do we know that memories, distinctions, and beliefs exist in the form of energy in the first place?
我相信對大部分人來說，這些都是不言而喻的，但是有一些深刻的含義就沒有這麽明顯，我們則想當然地接受了。首先，在外部環境中，我們和任何事物之間都有一個因果關係。因此我們和外界的接觸會在我們的思想裏產生“能量結構”。我們思想環境裏麵的記憶、特征和信念都以結構能量的形式儲藏了。結構能量是一個抽象的概念。也許你會問：“能量怎麽可能會有形狀呢？”在回答這個問題之前我還要講一個根本的問題。我們如何知道記憶、特征和信念都以能量的形式存在？
I don’t know if it’s been scientifically proven or completely accepted by the scientific community, but ask yourself in what other form could these mental components exist? Here’s what we know for sure: Anything composed of atoms and molecules takes up space and, therefore, can be observed. If memories, distinctions, and beliefs existed in some physical form, then we should be able to observe them. To my knowledge, no such observations have been made. The scientific community has dissected brain tissue (both living and dead) examined it at the level of the individual atom, mapped various regions of the brain in terms of their functions, but nobody, as yet, has observed a memory, distinction, or belief in its natural form. By “in its natural form” I mean that although a scientist can observe the individual brain cells that contain certain memories, he can’t experience those memories first hand. He can only experience them if the person to whom the memories belong is alive and chooses to express them in some way.
我不知道這個觀點是不是被科學界證明了，也不知道是不是被科學界接受了，但是你可以問自己，這些心理因素會以什麽形式存在？我們可以確定這些：任何由原子和分子組成的東西都有空間，因此能被看見。如果記憶、特征和信念有物理形態，那麽我們就能看見它們。就我所知，目前沒有這樣的觀察方法。科學上已經可以對腦組織進行解剖（無論是死體還是活體），可以在原子層次分析它，並畫出不同功能的腦結構。但是至今無人能觀察到記憶、特征和信念的自然形態。我說的“自然形態”是指，即使科學家可以觀察腦細胞，但是他不能體驗腦細胞的記憶。隻有一個人願意分享他的記憶，科學家才能體會到他的記憶。
If memories, distinctions, and beliefs don’t exist as physical matter, then there really isn’t any alternative way for them to exist except as some form of energy. If this is in fact the case, can this energy take on a specific shape? Can it be structured in a way that reflects the external forces that caused it to come into existence? Most definitely! Is there anything in the environment that is analogous to energy having shape or a specific structure? Yes! Let me give your several examples.
如果記憶、特征和信念沒有物理形態，那麽除了以能量的形態存在，它們是不會有其它存在方式的。如果事實就是如此，那麽這個能量有具體的形狀嗎？外部的力量會改變它們的結構嗎？肯定是的！是不是自然界有和能量相似的東西，它有形狀，或者有具體的結構？是的！讓我告訴你幾個例子。
Thoughts are energy. Because you think in a language, your thoughts are structured by the limitations and rules that govern the particular language in which you think. When you express those thoughts aloud, you create sound waves, which are a form of energy. The sound waves created by the interaction of your vocal cords and tongue are structured by the content of your message. Microwaves are energy. Many phone calls are relayed by microwaves, which means that the microwave energy has to be structured in a way that reflects the message it is carrying. Laser light is energy, and if you’ve ever witnessed a demonstration of a laser light show, or laser art, what you’ve seen is pure energy taking a shape that reflects the creative desires of the artists.
思想就是能量。因為當你用一種語言去思考時，這種語言的框架和原則就會對你的思維形成一定的架構。當你大聲表達這些思想時，你就製造了聲波，聲波就是一種能量。根據你要傳達信息的不同，你的聲帶和舌頭產生的聲波也不同。微波是能量。很多電話需要微波傳送，這意味著微波的能量必須有一定的結構，這樣才能傳送信息。激光是能量，如果你見過激光表演或激光藝術，這些能量展現的形狀反應了藝術家的創造性思想。
All of these are good examples of how energy can take shape, form, and structure. Of course, there are many more, but there is one more example that illustrates the point in the most graphic way. At the most fundamental level, what are dreams? I am not asking you what dreams mean or what you think their purpose is, but rather, what are they? What are their properties? If we assume that dreams take place within the confines of our skulls, then they can’t be composed of atoms and molecules, because there wouldn’t be enough space for all of the things that exist and take place in our dreams. Dream experiences seem to have the same proportions and dimensions as the things we perceive when we are awake and experiencing life through our five senses. The only way this could be possible is if dreams were a form of structured energy, because energy can take on any size or dimension, but, in doing so, doesn’t actually take up any space.
這些都說明了能量是有形狀的，有形態的，有結構的。當然了，還有很多例子能說明這點，但是還有一個例子用最形象的方式說明了要點。從最基本的角度來說，什麽是夢？我不是問你夢的寓意或預示什麽，我是問你夢的定義是什麽？性質是什麽？如果我們相信夢發生在頭骨以內，那麽夢就不是由原子和分子組成的。因為夢中的經曆和我們在現實中經曆的空間大小是一樣的，所以不可能有這麽多的空間讓夢中的事一一發生。夢能在頭腦內產生的唯一原因是夢是一種結構能量，因為能量可以以任何大小的形態存在，而且不占空間。
Now, if it hasn’t already occurred to you, there’s something here that’s really profound. If the memories, distinctions, and beliefs we’ve acquired as a result of our encounters with the external environment represent what we’ve learned about that environment and how it works; and if these memories, distinctions, and beliefs exist in our mental environment as energy; and if energy doesn’t take up any space; then it also could be said that we have an unlimited capacity for learning. Well, not only do I think it could be said, I’m saying it.
如果你不明白，那麽我還有其它有深刻含義的事來說明。如果記憶、特征和信念代表了我們對外部環境的認知，如果它們以能量的形式存在於我們的思想環境，如果能量不占有空間，那麽可以說我們的學習能力是無限的。嗯，我這麽想，也這麽說。
Consider the development of human consciousness and what to know to function effectively compared to just 100 years ago. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that we don’t have an unlimited capacity to learn. The difference between what we are aware of now and what we can do as a result of this expanded awareness would boggle the mind of anyone living 100 years ago.
和100年前相比，人類意識的發展和學習效率的發展說明我們的學習能力絕對是無窮的。我們現在的認知和能力會讓100年前的人大吃一驚的。
PERCEPTION AND LEARNING
認知和學習
However, we must be careful not to equate storage capacity with learning capacity. Learning, and becoming aware of what is available to be learned, is not just a function of storage capacity. If it were, then what would stop us from knowing everything? And if we knew everything, then what would stop us from perceiving every possible characteristic, property, or trait of everything that is expressing itself in any given moment? What stops us now?
然而，不能把儲存能力和學習能力等同起來。儲存能力並不是指學習，也不是指知道要學什麽。如果是的，那麽什麽會阻止我們學習所有的知識？如果我們知道了所有的知識，那麽是什麽阻止我們認出所有事物可能的特點、性質或特色？是什麽在阻止我們？
These questions get to the very heart of why you have to understand that mental components like memories, distinctions, and beliefs exist as energy. Anything that is energy has the potential to act as a force expressing its form, and that is exactly what our memories, distinctions and beliefs do. They act as a force on our senses from the inside, expressing their form and content, and, in the process of doing so, they have a profoundly limiting effect on the information we perceive in any given moment, making much of the information that is available from the environment’s perspective, and the possibilities inherent within that information, literally invisible.
這些問題很深入地說明了像記憶、特征和信念等心理元素是以能量的形式存在的。任何能量都有可能通過力量的形式來表達自己，記憶、特征和信念正是如此。它們在內部以力量的形式影響我們的感覺，並表達它們的形態和內容，它們通過這個過程讓我們對本來看不見的信息有了認知，並對信息包含的可能性也有了認知。
I am saying here that, in any given moment the environment is generating an enormous amount of information about its properties, characteristics, and traits. Some of that information is beyond the physiological range of our senses. For example, our eyes can’t see every wavelength of light nor can our ears hear every frequency of sound the environment produces, so there’s definitely a range of information that is beyond the physiological capabilities of our senses.
我是說環境一直在產生大量的關於自身性質、特征和特點的信息。有些信息是我們無法感覺到的。比如，我們的眼睛不能看見所有波段的光線，我們的耳朵不能聽見所有頻率的聲音，所以說有些信息是我們肯定無法感覺到的。
What about the rest of the information the environment is generating about itself? Do we see, hear, taste, smell, or feel through our senses every possible distinction, trait, and characteristic being senses? Absolutely not! The energy that’s inside of us will categorically limit and block our awareness of much of this information by working through the same sensory mechanisms the external environment works through.
對於環境產生的其它信息，我們能感覺到嗎？對於每個特征、特點和特性，是否我們都能通過看、聽、嚐、聞等方式感覺到呢？絕對不是！和外部的感官一樣，我們內部能夠識別的能量是有限的，有些信息我們還是不知道。
Now, if you take a moment and think about it, some of what I just said should be self-evident. For example, there are many ways in which the external environment can express itself that we don’t perceive simply because we haven’t learned about them yet. This is easy to illustrate. Think back to the first time you ever looked at a price chart. What did you see? Exactly what did you perceive? With no previous exposure, I’m sure, like everyone else, you saw a bunch of lines that had no meaning. Now if you’re like most traders, when you look at a price chart you see characteristics, traits, and behavior patterns that represent the collective actions of all the traders who participated in those particular trades.
現在，如果你花點時間想想，你會發現我說的有些話是不言而喻的。比如，外部環境用很多方式在表達它們，因為我們目前還在研究之中，所以我們不理解它們在表達什麽。這個現象很容易解釋。想想當你第一次看見價格圖表時，你看見了什麽？你具體是怎麽理解的？我相信，如果你和其他人一樣，以前沒有見過價格圖表，那麽你看見的就是一些線，沒有任何含義。如果你現在像大部分交易者一樣，當你看價格圖表時，你看見了特征、特點和行為模式，它們反應了市場中所有交易者的集體行為。
Initially, the chart represented undifferentiated information. Undifferentiated information usually creates a state of confusion, and that’s probably what you experienced when you first encountered a chart. Gradually, however, you learned to make distinctions about that information, such as trends and trend lines, consolidations, support and resistance, retracements or significant relationships between volume, and open interest and price action, just to name a few. You learned that each of these distinctions in the market’s behavior represented an opportunity to fulfill some personal need, goal, or desire. Each distinction now had a meaning and some relative degree of significance or importance attached to it.
一開始，圖表表達出來的信息是沒有什麽差別的。沒有差別的信息通常會讓人混淆，當你第一次看圖表時也許就會這樣。然後你會慢慢地學著解讀圖表的信息特征，比如趨勢、趨勢線、整固、支撐、壓力、回調、成交量之間的重要關係、持倉量和價格波動，還有很多，就不說了。你明白了市場行為的任何特征都反應了一次機會，這個機會會滿足某個人的需求、目標或欲望。每個特征都有一定的意義，有一定程度的重要性。
Now, I want you to use your imagination and pretend that I just set before you the very first price chart you ever saw. Would there be a difference between what you see now and what you saw then? Absolutely. Instead of a bunch of undifferentiated lines, you would see everything you’ve learned about those lines between then and now. In other words, you would see all the distinctions you’ve learned to make, as well as all the opportunities those distinctions represent.
現在請運用你的想象力，想象這是你第一次看到價格圖表。現在和過去比，會有什麽不同嗎？絕對有。你所看見的不再是相同的線，而是你不斷學到的關於這些線的知識。換句話說，你看見的是你學到的各種特征，還有這些特征所代表的機會。
Yet, everything you can see as you look at that chart now existed then, and, furthermore, was available to be perceived. What’s the difference? The structured energy that’s inside of you now - the knowledge you have gained - acts as a force on your eyes, causing you to recognize the various distinctions that you’ve learned about. Since that energy wasn’t there the first time you looked at the chart, all the opportunities that you now see were there, but at the same time invisible to you. Furthermore, unless you’ve learned to make every possible distinction based on every possible relationship between the variables in that chart, what you haven’t learned yet is still invisible.
你現在看見的信息，其實過去一直存在著，也是可以被認知的。這說明了什麽？這說明你現在擁有了結構能量——你學到的知識——通過你的眼光用力量的形式表達出來，讓你認出了你所學過的特征。因為你第一次看圖表時並沒有能量，所有的機會都在那裏，但是當時你卻看不見。進一步說，如果你沒有把所有的圖表特征搞清楚，你還是看不見它們。
Most of us have no concept of the extent to which we are continually surrounded by the invisible opportunities inherent in the information we’re exposed to. More often than not, we never learn about these opportunities and, as a result, they remain invisible. The problem, of course, is that unless we’re in a completely new or unique situation or we’re operating out of an attitude of genuine openness, we won’t perceive something that we haven’t learned about yet. To learn about something, we have to be able to experience it in some way. So what we have here is a closed loop that prevents us from learning. Perceptual closed loops exist in all of us, because they are natural functions of the way mental energy expresses itself on our senses.
大部分人對信息所包含機會沒有任何概念。大部分情況下我們都不知道去學習這些機會，所以也看不見這些機會。問題是，除非我們在新情況，或特殊情況下，或我們是天才，我們才能看到機會。一般情況下，如果我們不學習，我們是無法看到機會的。如果想學某個知識，我們就要用某種方式去經曆，所以我們在死循環中，沒法學到東西。因為感覺方麵的心理能量會自然地表達自己，所以我們都有感覺上的死循環。
Everyone has heard the expression, “People see what they want to see.” I would put it a little differently: People see what they’ve learned to see, and everything else is invisible until they learn how to counteract the energy that blocks their awareness of whatever is unlearned and waiting to be discovered.
每個人都聽說過這句話：“人們隻會看見他想看見的東西。”我的說法有點不同：人們能看見自己學過的東西，如果他不學習，他就不能打開阻擋他的能量，他就不能看見其它東西。
To illustrate this concept and make it even clearer, I am going to give you another example, one that demonstrates how mental energy can affect how we perceive and experience the environment in a way that it actually reverses the cause-and-effect relationship. Let’s look at a very young child’s first encounter with a dog.
為了更清楚地說明這個概念，我再舉個例子，這個例子說明了心理能量是如何影響認知的，而且說明了這個過程如何逆轉了因果關係。我們來看看小孩第一次遇到狗的情況。
Because it’s a first-time experience, the child’s mental environment is a clean slate, so to speak, with respect to dogs. He won’t have any memories and certainly no distinctions about a dog’s nature. Therefore, up to the moment of his first encounter, from the child’s perspective, dogs don’t exist. Of course, from the environment’s perspective, dogs do exist and they have the potential to act as a force on the child’s senses to create an experience. In other words, dogs expressing their nature can act as a cause to produce an effect inside the child’s mental environment.
因為是第一次遇到狗，小孩的心理環境對狗的認知完全是空白的。他對狗沒有記憶，也不知道狗的本性如何。因此，第一次遇到狗時，從小孩的角度來說，狗並不存在。當然了，從環境的角度來說，狗是存在的，它們有可能給小孩的感覺產生作用並形成一次經曆。換句話說，狗的本性表達會給小孩的心理環境產生影響。
What kind of effect are dogs capable of producing? Well, dogs have a range of expression. By range of expression I mean dogs can behave in a number of ways toward humans. They can be friendly, loving, protective, and fun to play with; or they can be hostile, mean, and dangerous - just to name a few of the many behaviors they’re capable of. All of these traits can be observed, experienced, and learned about. When the child sees the dog for the first time, there is absolutely nothing in his mental environment to tell him what he is dealing with. Unfamiliar, unknown, and unclassified environmental information can generate a sense of curiosity - when we want to find out more about what we’re experiencing - or it can generate a state of confusion, which can easily turn to fear if we can’t place the information into an understandable or meaningful organizational framework or context.
狗可能會對小孩產生什麽樣的影響呢？嗯，狗有很多種表達方式，我是說狗對人的表達方式有很多種。它們可以是友善的、可愛的、保護性的和好玩的；或者是凶狠的、惡意的和危險的——狗的表達方式太多了，我隻說了幾種而已。我們可以看到、體驗到並認識到這些特點。當小孩第一次看見狗時，他的心理環境不會告訴他他正在幹什麽。不熟悉的、不了解的和不清楚的環境信息會產生好奇的感覺——我們想更多地了解我們正在經曆的事物。環境信息也會讓人感到困惑，如果我們不能理解或有效地組織這些信息，這些信息會讓我們產生恐懼心理。
In our example, the child’s sense of curiosity kicks in and he rushes to the dog to get more sensory experience. Notice how children are literally compelled to thrust themselves into a situation they know nothing about. However, in this example, the environmental forces at hand do not react favorably to the child’s advances. The dog the child is interested in is either inherently mean or having a bad day. In any case, as soon as the child gets close enough, the dog bites him. The attack is so severe that the dog has to be pulled off the child.
在本例中，小孩產生了好奇感，他向狗衝去，他想得到更多的感官體驗。請注意小孩是如何把自己扔進未知的世界的。然而，在本例中，環境的力量和小孩的想法不同。小孩對狗感興趣，但狗可能很凶惡或心情不好。不管是什麽原因，當小孩走近狗時，狗就咬了他，狗的攻擊太厲害了，人們必須把這隻狗拉走才行。
This kind of unfortunate experience is certainly not typical, but it’s not that uncommon either. I chose it for two reasons: First, most people can relate to it in some way either from their own direct experience or through the experience of someone they know. Second, as we analyze the underlying dynamics of this experience from an energy perspective, we’re going to learn about 1) how our minds are designed to think, 2) process information, 3) how these processes affect what we experience and 4) our ability to recognize new possibilities. I know this may seem like a lot of insight from just one example, but the principles involved apply to the dynamics beneath virtually all learning.
這種不幸的經曆當然不是經常發生，但也不少見。我選擇這個例子有兩個原因：第一個原因，大部分人都可以把自身或別人的經曆和這個例子聯係起來；第二，當我們從能量的角度來分析這次經曆下麵的動力時，我們會了解到1）你是如何思考的，2）你是如何處理信息的，3）處理過程如何影響我們已經經曆過的事，4）我們發現新的可能性的能力。我知道，從一個例子裏麵總結出這麽多的結論，似乎多了點，但是這些原則在所有的學習過程中都會存在。
As a result of being physically and emotionally traumatized, the little boy in our example now has a memory and one distinction about the way dogs can express themselves. If the boy’s ability to remember his experiences is normal, he can store this incident in a way that represents all of the senses the experience had an impact on: For example the attack can be stored as mental images based on what he saw, as well as mental sounds representing what he heard, and so on. Memories representing the other three senses will work the same way.
這個例子中的小孩身心受到了創傷，他已經記住了狗表達自己的方式特征。如果小孩的記憶能力是正常的，他會把這次經曆儲存起來，並記錄他所有的感覺：比如他會把看見的東西以心理圖片的形式儲藏起來，他會把聽見的東西以心理聲音的形式儲藏起來，等等。其它3個感官的記憶方式也是同理。
However, the kind of sensory data in his memory is not as important as the kind of energy the sensory data represents. We basically have two kinds of mental energy: positively charged energy, which we call love, confidence, happiness, joy, satisfaction, excitement, and enthusiasm, to name a few of the pleasant ways we can feel; and negatively charged energy, representing fear, terror, dissatisfaction, betrayal, regret, anger, confusion, anxiety, stress, and frustration, all representing what is commonly referred to as emotional pain.
然而，他記憶中感官數據的重要性比不上能量。基本上我們有兩種心理能量：積極能量，我們稱之為愛、自信、幸福、歡樂、滿足、激動和激情，我隻說了幾個快樂的感受；還有消極能量，消極的感受有害怕、恐懼、不滿、背叛、後悔、憤怒、困惑、焦急、壓力和挫折，這些通常叫做情緒痛苦。
Because the boy’s first experience with a dog was intensely painful, we can assume that regardless of what senses were affected, all of his memories of this experience will be in painful, unpleasant feeling, negative energy. Now, what effect will this negatively charged mental energy have on his perception and behavior if and when he encounters another dog? The answer is so obvious that it may seem ridiculous even to ask, but the underlying implications are not obvious, so bear with me. Clearly, the moment he comes into contact with another dog, he will experience fear.
因為小孩和狗的第一次接觸是痛苦的，我們可以這麽認為，不管是哪個感官受到了影響，關於這次經曆的所有記憶都會形成痛苦的、不快樂的、消極的能量。當他再次遇到狗時，這樣的消極能量會如何影響他的認知和行為呢？答案很明顯，似乎這個問題都是荒謬的，但是我認為潛在的含義並不明顯，請原諒我這麽囉嗦。很明顯，當他遇到另一隻狗時，他會感到害怕。
Notice that I used the word “another” to describe the next dog he has any contact with. What I want to point out is that any dog can cause the boy to feel fear, not just the one that actually attacked him. It won’t make a bit of difference if the next dog he comes into contact with is the friendliest dog in the world, one whose nature is only to express playfulness and love. The child will still be afraid, and furthermore, his fear could quickly turn to unrestrained terror especially if the second dog (seeing a child and wanting to play) attempts to approach him.
請注意我用了“另一隻”以描述他會遇到的下一隻狗。我想指出，任何一隻狗都會讓這個孩子感到害怕，並不一定是攻擊他的那隻狗。就算他下次遇到的狗是全世界最溫順的、最適合玩耍的、最可愛的狗也沒用。這個小孩還會害怕，更嚴重的是，當第二隻狗（看見小孩，想和他玩）準備接近他時，他的害怕快速變成了惶恐。
Each of us has at one time or another witnessed a situation in which someone was experiencing fear, when from our perspective there wasn’t the least bit of danger or threat. Although we may not have said it, we probably thought to ourselves that this person was being irrational. If we tried to point out why there was no need to be afraid, we probably found that our words had little, if any, impact.
我們都見過這樣的事，雖然我們認為根本沒有什麽危險，但是別人卻感到害怕。雖然我們自己沒說出來，但我們內心覺得這個人不夠理性。如果我們指出來為什麽不必害怕，我們可能會發現我們的話語沒有什麽效果。
We could easily think the same thing about the boy in our example, that he is just being irrational, because it’s clear from our perspective that other possibilities exist than the one his mind has focused on. But is his fear any less rational than, let’s say, your fear (or hesitation) about putting on the next trade, when your last trade was a loser? Using the same logic, a top trader would say that your fear is irrational because this “now moment” opportunity has absolutely nothing to do with your last trade. Each trade is simply an edge with a probable outcome, and statistically independent of every other trade. If you believe otherwise, then I can see why you’re afraid; but I can assure you that your fears are completely unfounded.
對於本例中的小孩，我們也可以這麽想，他不夠理性，因為從我們的角度來看，事情的發展會有很多可能性，而不僅僅是小孩想的那樣。但是，當你交易失敗，你再次交易時的恐懼（或猶豫）會比小孩少嗎？從這個角度來說，優秀交易者會說你感到害怕也是不理性的表現，因為這次交易和你上次失敗的交易並沒有任何關係。每筆交易都是一個優勢，都會麵對一個可能的結果，統計學表明每筆交易都是相對獨立的。如果你不相信這個結論，那麽我就知道你為什麽感到害怕了，但是你的恐懼是沒有任何根據的。
PERCEPTION AND RISK
認知和風險
As you can see, one person’s perception of risk can easily be perceived as irrational thinking by another. Risk is relative, but to the person who perceives it in the moment, it seems absolute and beyond question. When the child encountered his first dog, he was bubbling with excitement and curiosity. What is it about the way our minds think and process information that could automatically flip the boy into a state of fear the next time he encounters a dog, even if it’s months or years later? If we look at fear as a natural mechanism warning us of threatening conditions, then what is it about the way our minds function that would automatically tell the boy that the next encounter with a dog is something to be afraid of? What happened to the boy’s natural sense of curiosity? There is surely more to learn about the nature of dogs than this one experience has taught him, especially in light of the fact that our minds seem to have an unlimited capacity for learning. And why would it be virtually impossible to talk the boy out of his fear?
正如你所見，一個人認為有風險，另一個人會覺得他不夠理性。風險是相對的，但對於認為有風險的人來說，風險是絕對存在的。當小孩第一次遇到狗時，他感到激動和好奇。是什麽東西讓這個小孩在幾個月或幾年後第二次遇到狗時就變得害怕了？如果我們把害怕作為對危險環境的自動反應，那麽是什麽讓小孩第二次遇到狗時會自動感到害怕？小孩天生的好奇心有什麽變化？相比之下，研究狗的本性比研究小孩的感受空間要大，尤其是考慮到我們有無限的學習潛能。為什麽不可能讓小孩不再感到害怕？
THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION
聯想的力量
As complex as these questions may seem at first glance, most of them can be answered quite easily. I’m sure many of you already know the answer: Our minds have an inherent design characteristic that causes us to associate and link anything that exists in the external environment that is similar in quality, characteristics, properties, or traits to anything that already exists in our mental environment as a memory or distinction. In other words, in the example of the child being afraid of dogs, the second dog or any other dog he encounters thereafter, doesn’t have to be the dog that attacked in order for him to experience emotional pain. There just has to be enough of a likeness or similarity for his mind to make a connection between the two.
這些問題第一眼看上去複雜，大部分都能輕鬆地回答。我肯定大部分人都知道答案：對於我們心理環境中已經以記憶形式存在的特質、特點、性質和特點，我們的思維天生就會把它們和外部環境聯係起來。換句話說，關於這個怕狗的小孩，他碰到的第二隻狗或其它狗不一定會讓他感到情緒痛苦，但是他的思維會把相似的記憶聯係起來，從而讓他感到痛苦。
This natural tendency for our minds to associate is an unconscious mental function that occurs automatically. It’s not something we have to think about or make a decision about. An unconscious mental function would be analogous to an involuntary physical function such as a heartbeat. Just as we don’t have to consciously think about the process of making our hearts beat, we don’t have to think about linking experiences and our feelings about them. Its simply a natural function of the way our minds process information, and, like a heartbeat, it’s a function that has a profound effect on the way we experience our lives.
這種自然的傾向是我們心理自動的潛意識行為，不是我們想出來的，也不是我們做的決定。潛意識的心理功能和心跳類似，不是我們主觀意識決定的。就像我們不用決定自己的心跳一樣，我們會自然地把經曆和感覺聯係起來。這是思維處理信息的自然方式，就像心跳一樣，這個功能對我們的生活有重大的影響。
I’d like you to try and visualize the two-way flow of energy that reverses the cause-and-effect relationship that will make it difficult (if not impossible) for the boy to perceive any other possibilities than the one that’s in his mind. To help you, I’m going to break this process down into its smallest parts, and go through what happens step by step, All of this may seem a bit abstract, but understanding this process plays a big part in unlocking your potential to achieve consistent success as a big trader.
我想請你盡量想象能量的雙向流動方式，這種方式逆轉了因果關係，導致小孩很難看見他思想之外的可能性。為了幫助你，我想把這個過程分解為更小的過程，一步一步地分析。所有這些過程看起來很抽象，但是要想成為持續一致優秀的交易者，就必須理解這個過程。
First, let’s get right down to the basics. There’s structured energy on the outside of the boy and structured energy on the inside of the boy. The outside energy is positively charged in the form of a friendly dog that wants to express itself by playing. The inside energy is a negatively charged memory in the form of mental images and sounds that represent the boy’s first experience with a dog.
我們先談基本的東西。在小孩的外部和內部都有結構能量。外部能量是積極能量，它的形態是一隻友善的狗想通過玩耍表達自己。內部能量是消極能量，它以小孩和狗第一次接觸時的心理圖片和心理聲音的形態存在，是一種記憶。
Both the inside and the outside energy have the potential to make themselves felt on the boy’s senses and, as a result, create two different kinds of situations for him to experience. The outside energy has the potential to act as a force on the boy in a way that he could find very enjoyable. This particular dog expresses behavior characteristics like playfulness, friendliness, and even love. But keep in mind that these are characteristics that the child still has not experienced in a dog, so from his perspective they don’t exist. Just as in the price chart example I presented earlier, the child won’t be able to perceive what he hasn’t yet learned about, unless he is in a state of mind that is conducive to learning.
內部能量和外部能量都有可能對小孩的感覺造成影響，那麽小孩就有可能遇到兩種不同的經曆。外部能量有可能讓小孩覺得快樂。這隻狗的行為特點可以是好玩、友善，甚至是可愛。但是請記住，小孩還不知道狗有這些特點，所以從他的角度來說，他沒有這方麵的認知。就像我之前說的價格圖表，對於沒有學過的東西，小孩是沒有認知的，除非他善於學習。
The inside energy also has potential and is just waiting, so to speak, to express itself. But it will act on the boy’s eyes and ears in a way that causes him to feel threatened. This in turn will create an experience of emotional pain, fear, and possibly even terror.
內部能量也有可能表達自己，它甚至是在等待表達自己的機會。但是它會對小孩的眼睛和耳朵產生作用並讓小孩感到害怕。這樣就會導致痛苦、害怕、甚至是恐慌。
From the way I’ve set this up, it may seem as if the boy has a choice between experiencing fun or experiencing fear, but that’s really not the case, at least not in the moment. Of the two possibilities that exist in this situation, he will undoubtedly experience the pain and fear, instead of the fun. This is true for several reasons.
從我解說的過程來看，似乎小孩有兩個選擇，去體驗快樂或者經曆恐懼，但事實上不是這樣，至少目前不是。在目前狀況下有兩種可能性，他肯定會去體驗痛苦和恐懼，而不是快樂。有幾個原因。
First, as I’ve already indicated, our minds are wired to automatically and instantaneously associate and link information that has similar characteristics, properties, and traits. What’s outside of the child in the form of a dog, looks and sounds similar to the one that’s in his mind. However, the degree of similarity that is necessary for his mind to link the two is an unknown variable, meaning I don’t know the mental mechanism that determines how much or how little similarity is required for our minds to associate and link two or more sets of information. Since everyone’s mind functions in a similar way, but, at the same time is unique, I would assume there is a range of tolerance for similarity or dissimilarity and each of us has a unique capacity somewhere within the range.
第一，我已經說了，我們的思維會自動地把具有相似的特征、特質和特點的信息聯係起來。對小孩來說，狗的長相和叫聲和他思維裏的信息一樣。然而，我不知道信息的相似性要到什麽程度心理機製才會把它們聯係起來，相似程度目前是未知的變數，也就是說，我並不知道兩個或多個信息的相似性到底要多大才會讓心理機製把它們聯係起來。因為每個人的思維功能都差不多，同時又是相對獨特的，所以我認為每個人對相似性的定義都不同，每個人都有自己特定的界定範圍。
Here’s what we do know: As this next dog comes into contact with the boy’s eyes or ears, if there is enough similarity between the way it looks or sounds and the dog that’s embedded in his memory, then his mind will automatically connect the two. This connection, in turn, will cause the negatively charged energy in his memory to be released throughout his body, causing him to be overcome with a very uncomfortable sense of foreboding or terror. The degree of discomfort or emotional pain that he experiences will be equivalent to the degree of trauma that he suffered as a result of his first encounter with a dog.
我們應該相信：當下一隻狗和小孩接觸時，如果狗的長相和叫聲和小孩記憶裏的信息很相似，那麽小孩的思維就會自動把它們聯係起來。這種聯係會讓他的消極能量徹底充滿了全身，導致他要克服預感中不安或恐慌的感覺。根據他第一次和狗相遇時所遭受的創傷程度，他們不安和情緒痛苦的程度也不同。
What happens next is what psychologists call a projection. I’m going to refer to it simply as another instantaneous association that makes the reality of the situation from the boy’s perspective seem like the absolute, unquestionable truth. The boy’s body is now filled with negatively charged energy. At the same time, he is in sensory contact with the dog. Next, his mind associates whatever sensory information his eyes or ears perceive with the painful energy he’s experiencing inside himself, which makes it seem as if the source of his pain and fear is the dog he is seeing or hearing in that moment.
後麵要發生的事會被心理醫生稱為心理投射。我稱為自發的聯想，小孩會立刻認為現實是絕對的，毋庸置疑的。此時，小孩的身體充滿了消極的能量。同時，他感覺到了狗。然後，他的思維把他看見的或聽見的感官信息和內心的痛苦能量聯係起來，讓他以為眼前的狗就是他感覺痛苦和恐懼的根源。
Psychologists call the dynamics of what I just described a projection because, in a sense, the boy is projecting the pain he is experiencing in the moment onto the dog. That painful energy then gets reflected back to him, so that he perceives a dog that is threatening, painful, and dangerous. This process makes the second dog identical in character, properties, and traits to the one that is in the boy’s memory bank, even though the information the second dog is generating about its behavior is not identical, or even similar, to the behavior of the dog that actually attacked the boy.
心理醫生把我描述的現象稱為心理投射，因為，從某種角度來說，這個小孩把自己的正在體驗的痛苦往狗身上投射。痛苦的能量反射到他身上，所以他會認為狗是有威脅的、令人痛苦的、危險的。如此以來，如果第二隻狗的特征、特質和特點和他記憶中的狗是一致的，那麽小孩就會把它們等同起來。即使第二隻狗和之前攻擊小孩的狗沒有什麽相似之處，這個小孩也會認為它們是相同的。
Since the two dogs, the one in the boy’s mind and the one outside of the boy’s mind, feel exactly the same, it’s extremely unlikely the boy will be able to make any type of distinctions in the second dog’s behavior that would suggest to him that it is any different than the one in his mind. So, instead of perceiving this next encounter with a dog as an opportunity to experience something new about the nature of dogs, he perceives a threatening and dangerous dog.
因為小孩思維中的狗和外部的狗感覺是一樣的，這個小孩就不會認為它們有什麽不同。所以，小孩不會認為和狗再次接觸是為了認識關於狗的新的本性，他會認為第二隻狗有威脅，是危險的。
Now, if you think about it for a moment, what is it about this process that would indicate to the boy that his experience of the situation was not the absolute, unquestionable truth? Certainly the pain and fear that he experienced in his body was the absolute truth.
現在請你思考一下，如果小孩在這種情況下的體驗並不是絕對的確定的事實，那會如何？當然了，他內心的痛苦和恐懼絕對是事實。
But what about the possibilities that he perceived? Were they true? From our perspective, they weren’t. However, from the boy’s perspective, how could they be anything but the true reality of the situation? What alternatives did he have? First, he can’t perceive possibilities that he hasn’t learned about yet. And it is extremely difficult to learn anything new if you’re afraid, because, as you already well know, fear is a very debilitating form of energy. It causes us to withdraw, to get ready to protect ourselves, to run, and to narrow our focus of attention - all of which makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to open ourselves in a way that allows us to learn something new.
那麽他看到的其它可能性呢？是真的嗎？從我們的角度來說，不是真的。然而，從小孩的角度來說，怎麽可能還有其它可能性呢？他的選擇是什麽？第一，對於他沒經曆過的可能性，他是看不出來的。因為你知道，恐懼是一種讓人虛弱的能量，所以如果你很恐懼，你是無法學到新東西的。恐懼會讓我們退縮，會讓我們采取自衛措施，會讓我們逃跑，會讓我們的視野變窄——這一切都讓我們很難學到新東西。
Second, as I have already indicated, as far as die boy is concerned, the dog is the source of his pain, and in a sense this is true. The second dog did cause him to tap into the pain that was already in his mind, but it was not the true source of that pain. This was a positively charged dog that got connected to the boy’s negatively charged energy by an automatic, involuntary mental process, functioning at speeds faster than it takes to blink an eye (a process that the boy has absolutely no awareness of). So as far as he’s concerned, why would he be afraid if what he perceived about the dog wasn’t the absolute truth?
第二，正如我所說，隻要這個小孩有所顧及，狗就是痛苦的原因，而且是事實。在他的思想中第二隻狗已經讓他痛苦了，但這不是痛苦的真正原因。心理的變化過程非常快，比眨眼還快（小孩自己絕對不知道），而積極的狗和消極的能量就這樣自動相遇了。如果他對狗的認知並非是絕對的事實，那麽為什麽他感到害怕呢？
As you can see, it wouldn’t make any difference how the dog was acting, or what someone might say to the contrary about why the boy shouldn’t be afraid, because he will perceive whatever information the dog is generating about itself (regardless of how positive) from a negative perspective. He will not have the slightest notion that his experience of pain, fear, and terror was completely self-generated.
正如你所見，因為這個小孩隻會從消極的角度來解讀任何信息（不管這隻狗多麽積極），所以無論狗的行為如何，無論別人如何說這隻狗不可怕，都是沒有效果的。他根本不知道自己的痛苦、害怕和恐懼心理都是自己產生的。
Now, if it’s possible for the boy to self-generate his own pain and terror and, at the same time, be firmly convinced that his negative experience was coming from the environment, is it also possible for traders to self-generate their own experiences of fear and emotional pain as they interact with market information and be thoroughly convinced that their pain and fear was completely justified by the circumstances? The underlining psychological dynamics work in exactly the same way.
如果小孩可以自己產生痛苦和恐懼，同時堅信他的消極體驗來自外部環境，那麽是不是有可能交易者的恐懼和情緒痛苦也是自己產生，而且他們完全確信他們的恐懼和情緒痛苦也是環境產生的？是的，心理下麵的工作原理是完全一樣的。
One of your basic objectives as a trader is to perceive the opportunities available, not the threat of pain. To learn how to stay focused on the opportunities, you need to know and understand in no uncertain terms the source of the threat. It’s not the market. The market generates information about its potential to move from a neutral perspective. At the same time, it provides you (the observer) with an unending stream of opportunities to do something on your own behalf. If what you perceive at any given moment causes you to feel fear, ask yourself this question: Is the information inherently threatening, or are you simply experiencing the effect of your own state of mind reflected back to you (as in the above illustration)?
作為交易者，你的一個基本目標是認知到機會，而不是看到痛苦的威脅。為了學習如何聚焦於機會，你需要知道並了解威脅的根源。根源不在市場。市場發出的信息是中性的，表明它可能要如何變化。同時，它給你（觀察著）提供了大量的機會，讓你自己做決定。如果你總是覺得害怕，問問你自己：這個信息真的有威脅嗎，你是不是因為過去的經曆而覺得有危險（正如上麵的解釋）？
I know this is a difficult concept to accept, so I’ll give you another example to illustrate the point. Let’s set up a scenario, where your last two or three trades were losers. You are watching the market, and the variables you use to indicate that an opportunity exists are now present. Instead of immediately executing the trade, you hesitate. The trade feels very risky, so risky, in fact, that you start questioning whether this is “really” a signal. As a result, you start gathering information to support why this trade probably won’t work. This is information you normally wouldn’t consider or pay attention to, and it’s certainly not information that is part of your trading methodology.
我知道這個概念很難理解，所以我想用另一個例子來說明。我們建立一個場景，在這個場景中你最後2，3次的交易虧損了。你看著市場，你的數據告訴你機會出現了。你不但沒有立刻交易，你反而猶豫了。你感覺這筆交易有風險，而且風險很大，實際上你在懷疑這是不是“真”的信號。於是你開始收集信息，以證明這筆交易不會賺錢。平時，你不會關心和注意這樣的信息，當然這樣的信息也不屬於你的交易係統。
In the meantime, the market is moving. Unfortunately, it is moving away from your original entry point, the point at which you would have gotten into the trade if you hadn’t hesitated. Now you are conflicted, because you still want to get in; the thought of missing a winning trade is painful. At the same time, as the market moves away from your entry point, the dollar value of the risk to participate increases. The tug of war inside your mind intensifies. You don’t want to miss out, but you don’t want to get whipsawed either. In the end, you do nothing, because you are paralyzed by the conflict. You justify your state of immobility by telling yourself that it’s just too risky to chase the market, while you agonize over every tic the market moves in the direction of what would have been a nice winning trade.
同時，市場在波動。不幸地，市場離你的進場點遠去，如果你不猶豫，你是應該交易的。因為你還想進場，錯過賺錢的交易也是痛苦的，所以現在你很矛盾。同時，當市場離你的進場點越來越遠時，進場交易的風險也增大了。你思想鬥爭很激烈。你不想錯過交易，但你也不想被上下洗盤。因為你被矛盾的思想折磨透了，最終你什麽也沒做。你安慰自己說，追高太危險了；同時，當市場離你遠去時，價格的每一次跳動都讓你感到極度痛苦。
If this scenario sounds familiar, I want you to ask yourself whether, at the moment you hesitated, were you perceiving what the market was making available, or perceiving what was in your mind reflected back to you? The market gave you a signal. But you didn’t perceive the signal from an objective or positive perspective. You didn’t see it as an opportunity to experience the positive feeling you would get from winning or making money, but that’s exactly what the market was making available to you.
如果這個場景聽起來很熟悉，我想讓你問問自己，當你猶豫的時候，你是看到了市場提供的東西，還是看到了心理的東西？市場給了你信號，但你沒有從客觀或積極的角度來解讀信號。市場給了你機會，你沒有抓住機會，你沒有賺到錢，所以你也沒有積極的感覺。
Think about this for a moment: If I change the scenario so that your last two or three trades were winners instead of losers, would you have perceived the signal any differently? Would you have perceived it more as an opportunity to win than you did in the first scenario? If you were coming off three winners in a row, would you have hesitated to put that trade on? Very unlikely! In fact, if you’re like most traders, you probably would have been giving very strong consideration to loading up (putting on a position much larger than your normal size).
再從另外一個角度來思考：假如我改變一下場景，你最後2，3筆交易是賺錢的，你會從另外一個角度來解讀這個信號嗎？你是不是覺得更有機會贏？如果你連續3筆賺錢，你這次會不會猶豫？結果大不相同！實際上，如果你和大多數交易者一樣，你有強烈的願望去加倉（建立比平時的倉位大很多的倉位）。
In each situation, the market generated the same signal. But your state of mind was negative and fear-based in the first scenario, and that caused you to focus on the possibility of failure, which in turn caused you to hesitate. In the second scenario, you hardly perceived any risk at all. You may even have thought the market was making a dream come true. That, in turn, would make it easy, if not compelling, to financially overcommit yourself.
其實在上麵所假設的兩個場景中市場產生的信號是一樣的。在第一個場景中，你思想消極，你害怕會失敗，從而導致你猶豫不決。在第二個場景中，你根本看不見風險。你甚至以為市場可以讓你美夢成真，因此你會很輕鬆地建立過大的倉位。
If you can accept the fact that the market doesn’t generate positively or negatively charged information as an inherent characteristic of the way it expresses itself, then the only other way information can take on a positive or negative charge is in your mind, and that is a function of the way the information is processed. In other words, the market doesn’t cause you to focus on failure and pain, or on winning and pleasure. What causes the information to take on a positive or negative quality is the same unconscious mental process that caused the boy to perceive the second dog as threatening and dangerous, when all the dog was offering was playfulness and friendship.
如果你能接受這樣的事實，那就是市場既不會產生積極的信息，也不會產生消極的信息，它隻是自然地表達自己，那麽隻有你的思想能決定信息是積極的，還是消極的，這就是思維處理信息的過程。換句話說，市場沒有叫你擔心失敗和痛苦，也沒有叫你關注贏錢和快樂。是同樣的潛意識心理過程把信息分成了積極的信息和消極的信息，從而導致小孩以為第二隻狗是可怕和危險的，實際上所有的狗都是可愛的友好的。
Our minds constantly associate what’s outside of us (information) with something that’s already in our mind (what we know), making it seem as if the outside circumstances and the memory, distinction, or belief these circumstances are associated with are exactly the same. As a result, in the first scenario, if you were coming off two or three losing trades, the next signal the market gives you that an opportunity was present will feel overly risky. Your mind is automatically and unconsciously linking the “now moment” with your most recent trading experiences. The link taps you into the pain of losing, creating a fearful state of mind and causing you to perceive the information you’re exposed to in that moment from a negative perspective. It seems as if the market is expressing threatening information, so, of course, your hesitation is justified.
我們的思想總是把外界（信息）和我們內在（我們知道的）聯係在一起，從而讓我們以為外部環境和記憶、特征、信念等內部環境是一樣的。因此，在第一種場景下，如果你連續虧損了2，3次，市場提供的下一個信號會讓你感覺風險很大。你的思維自動地下意識地把“現在”和最近的交易聯係起來。這種聯係讓你體會到了虧損時的痛苦，產生了害怕的思想，導致你把信息看成是消極的。看起來市場的信息是有威脅的，如此一來你的猶豫就是合理的。
In the second scenario, the same process causes you to perceive the situation from an overly positive perspective, because you are coming off three winners in a row. The association between the “now moment” and the elation of the last three trades creates an overly positive or euphoric state of mind, making it seem as if the market is offering you a riskless opportunity. Of course, this justifies overcommitting yourself.
在第二種場景下，因為你連續賺了3筆，同樣的過程卻讓你過分積極地看待市場。思想上把“現在”和前麵3筆賺錢的交易聯係起來，就會過分積極，情緒高漲，好像市場為你提供了沒有風險的機會。當然了，此時倉位過大也是合理的。
In Chapter 1, I said that many of the mental patterns that cause traders to lose and make errors are so self-evident and deeply ingrained that it would never occur to us that the reason we aren’t consistently successful is because of the way we think. Understanding, becoming consciously aware of, and then learning how to circumvent the mind’s natural propensity to associate is a big part of achieving that consistency. Developing and maintaining a state of mind that perceives the opportunity flow of the market, without the threat of pain or the problems caused by overconfidence, will require that you take conscious control of the association process.
在第01章，我說很多心理模式會讓交易者虧損並犯錯，這些心理模式很明顯，而且已經根深蒂固了，所以我們從來沒想到是我們的想法導致我們不能持續成功。要想實現持續一致性，就要明白，意識到，並學習如何刻意改變思維聯想的自然傾向，這是一項大工程。為了形成和維持認知市場機會的思維，不受痛苦的威脅，不受過度自信的影響，這需要你在意識上要控製好聯想過程。
CHAPTER 6 THE MARKET’S PERSPECTIVE
第06章 市場的角度
For the most part, a typical traders perception of the risk in any given trading situation is a function of the outcome of his most recent two or three trades (depending on the individual). The best traders, on the other hand, are not impacted (either negatively or too positively) by the outcomes of their last or even their last several trades. So their perception of the risk of any given trading situation is not affected by this personal, psychological variable. There’s a huge psychological gap here that might lead you to believe that the best traders have inherent design qualities in their minds that account for this gap, but I can assure you this is not the case.
大部分情況下，典型的交易者對風險的認知取決與他最近的2，3筆交易（不同的人，情況不同）。然而，最優秀的交易者不會受他最近一筆或幾筆交易結果的影響（不管是積極的，還是消極的）。所以他們在任何情況下對風險的認知都不會受到個人的心理變數的影響。最優秀的交易者和普通交易者的心理有差距，你可能以為最優秀的交易者天生具有的思想特質導致了這個差距，其實不是這樣的。
Every trader I’ve worked with over the last 18 years has had to learn how to train his mind to stay properly focused in the “now moment opportunity flow.” This is a universal problem, and has to do both with the way our minds are wired and our common social upbringing (meaning, this particular trading problem is not person-specific). There are other factors relating to self-esteem that may also act as obstacles to your consistent success, but what we are going to discuss now is the most important and fundamental building block to your success as a trader.
過去18年來，我要求和我一起共事的每一位交易者都要訓練自己的思維聚焦於“現在的機會流”。這是一個普遍的需要解決的問題，這個問題和我們的思維模式，成長環境（也就是說這個交易問題並不是個人所有的）都有關係。其它和自尊相關的因素也是持續一致成功的障礙，但我們目前要談的是有助你成功的最重要的，最基礎的東西。
THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE
“不確定”原則
If there is such a thing as a secret to the nature of trading, this is it: At the very core of one’s ability 1) to trade without fear or overconfidence, 2) perceive what the market is offering from its perspective, 3) stay completely focused in the “now moment opportunity flow,” and 4) spontaneously enter the “zone,” it is a strong virtually unshakeable belief in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor.
如果說有交易的秘訣，那就是在個人努力的前提下：1）交易時不害怕，也不過度自信，2）從市場的角度來看市場提供了什麽，3）完全聚焦於“現在的機會流”，4）自然地進入“狀態”，這是在不確定的環境下對自己的堅定信念，也是自己的優勢。
The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that “anything can happen.” They don’t just suspect  that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the “now moment” situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades.
最優秀的交易者已經進化到了沒有絲毫疑心，沒有內心衝突地相信“任何事都有可能發生”。他們不會懷疑“任何事都有可能發生”，他們也不是說空話。他們非常相信不確定性，所以他們不會把“目前的情況”和他們最近的交易結果聯係起來。
By preventing this association, they are able to keep their minds free of unrealistic and rigid expectations about how the market will express itself. Instead of generating the kind of unrealistic expectations that more often than not result in both emotional and financial pain, they have learned to “make themselves available” to take advantage of whatever opportunities the market may offer in any given moment.
為了阻止這種聯想，他們能夠拒絕關於市場自身表達的不現實的和死板的預期。這種不現實的預期一般都會導致情緒和財務上的痛苦，他們不願意這樣，他們學會了“把握自己”，當市場有機會了，他們會抓住任何機會。
“Making yourself available” is a perspective from which you understand that the framework from which you are perceiving information is limited relative to what’s being offered. Our minds don’t automatically perceive every opportunity that presents itself in any given moment. (The “boy and the dog” illustration from Chapter 5 is a perfect example of how our own personal versions of the truth are reflected back to us.)
“把握自己”是一種認知，讓你明白你所認知的信息僅僅來自被提供的信息範圍。我們的思維不會自動地在任意時刻看到所有的機會（第05章“小孩和狗”的描述就完美地說明了一個人對事實的看法如何反映了自己的版本）。
This same land of perceptual blindness happens all the time in trading. We can’t perceive the potential for the market to continue to move in a direction that is already against our position if, for example, we are operating out of a fear of being wrong. The fear of admitting we are wrong causes us to place an inordinate amount of significance on information that tells us that we’re right. This happens even if there’s ample information to indicate that the market has in fact established a trend in the opposite direction of our position. A trending market is a distinction about the market’s behavior we can ordinarily perceive, but this distinction can easily become invisible if we are operating out of fear. The trend and the opportunity to trade in the direction of that trend don’t become visible until we are out of the trade.
在交易時，這種感知盲點一直存在。比如，如果我們害怕犯錯，對於已經虧損的倉位，我們不會認為它會繼續虧下去。我們害怕承認自己錯了，所以到處去找大量的信息以證明我們是對的。這種事情在我們虧損嚴重的時候更明顯。通常我們可以輕鬆地看出有趨勢的市場特征，但是如果我們害怕承認錯誤，我們就會看不見這個特征。當我們沒有進行交易時，這個趨勢和機會都是明顯的。
In addition, there are opportunities that are invisible to us because we haven’t learned to make the distinctions that would allow us to perceive them. Recall our discussion in Chapter 5 of the first price chart you ever looked at. What we haven’t learned yet is invisible to us, and remains invisible until our minds are open to an exchange of energy.
另外，還有一些其它機會，因為我們還沒有學會如何識別它們的特征，所以我們看不見這些機會。請回想一下在第05章我們關於第一次看見價格圖表的討論。對於我們還沒學過的東西，我們是看不見的；隻有當我們的思想交換了能量，我們才能看見它們。
A perspective from which you make yourself available takes into consideration both the known and the unknown: For example, you’ve built a mental framework that allows you to recognize a set of variables in the markets behavior that indicates when an opportunity to buy or sell is present. This is your edge and something you know. However, what you don’t know is exactly how the pattern your variables identify will unfold.
對於你所認為的機會，你需要同時考慮已知的和未知的兩個方麵：比如，你已經建立了一個心理框架，這樣當市場行為變化時，你就可以通過一些變數（張軼注：本書中的很多“變數”指交易方法，因為很多交易方法會用到“變數”或“參數”，請讀者特別注意）知道買賣的機會。這是你的優勢，也是你知道的，也就是已知的一麵。然而，你的變數確定的模式到底是什麽樣子，這是你不知道的，也就是未知的一麵。
With the perspective of making yourself available, you know that your edge places the odds of success in your favor, but, at the same time, you completely accept the fact that you don’t know the outcome of any particular trade. By making yourself available, you consciously open yourself up to find out what will happen next; instead of giving way to an automatic mental process that causes you to think you already know. Adopting this perspective leaves your mind free of internal resistance that can prevent you from perceiving whatever opportunity the market is making available from its perspective (its truth). Your mind is open for an exchange of energy. Not only can you learn something about the market that you previously didn’t know, but you also set up the mental condition most conducive to entering “the zone.”
當你抓住了機會時，你知道這是你的優勢，你成功的概率比較大；但同時，你完全接受你無法知道任何一筆交易的結果這個現實。要想抓住機會，你的潛意識會思考下一步會發生什麽，而不是讓你的心理導致你以為你已經知道了下一步會發生什麽。采用這種看法，可以讓你的思想不受內部阻力的影響，以免你看不見市場的機會（真正的）。你的思維是開放的，可以接受能量的轉換。你不但可以學習你之前不知道的東西，而且你的心理狀況更容易進入“狀態”。
The essence of what it means to be in “the zone” is that your mind and the market are in sync. As a result, you sense what the market is about to do as if there is no separation between yourself and the collective consciousness of everyone else participating in the market. The zone is a mental space where you are doing more than just reading the collective mind, you are also in complete harmony with it.
進入“狀態”的準確含義是指你的思維和市場同步。於是你能感覺到市場的波動，就好像你和市場大眾的集體意識之間沒有阻隔。這個狀態是心理空間，你不但要解讀市場的集體思想，你還要和它完全步調一致。
If this sounds a bit strange to you, ask yourself how it is that a flock of birds or a school of fish can change direction simultaneously. There must be a way in which they are linked to one another. If it is possible for people to become linked in the same way, then there will be times when information from those with whom we are linked can and will bleed through to our consciousness. Traders who have experienced being tapped into the collective consciousness of the market can anticipate a change in direction just as a bird in the middle of a flock or a fish in the middle of a school will turn at the precise moment that all of the others turn.
如果你覺得這聽起來有點奇怪，你問問自己一群鳥或魚是如何同時改變方向的。它們之間一定有某種聯係方式。如果人類也可以這樣產生聯係，那麽別人的信息也會溶入我們的意識。有經驗的交易者能夠感覺到市場集體的意識，從而知道市場要改變方向，這和一群鳥或魚在特定時刻一起轉向是同樣的道理。
However, setting up the kind of mental conditions most conducive to experiencing this seemingly magical synchronicity between you and the market is no easy task. There are two mental hurdles to overcome. The first is the focus of this chapter: learning how to keep your mind focused in the “now moment opportunity flow.” In order to experience synchronicity, your mind has to be open to the market’s truth, from its perspective.
然而，形成這種心理環境，並讓自己和市場神奇地同步起來並非是輕鬆的任務。需要克服兩個心理障礙。第一個障礙是本章談論的焦點：學習如何讓自己的思想聚焦在“現在的機會流。”為了實現同步，你的思想必須對市場的事實開放。
The second hurdle has to do with the division of labor between the two halves of our brain. The left side of our brain specializes in rational thought, based on what we already know. The right side specializes in creative thought. It is capable of tapping into an inspiration, an intuition, a hunch, or a sense of knowing that usually can’t be explained at a rational level. It can’t be explained because if the information is really creative in nature, then it is something that we wouldn’t know at a rational level. By definition, true creativity brings forth something that didn’t previously exist. There’s an inherent conflict between these two modes of thought, that the rational, logical part will almost always win, unless we take specific steps to train our minds to accept and trust creative information. Without that training, we will usually find it very difficult to act on our hunches, intuitive impulses, inspirations, or sense of knowing.
第二個障礙是兩個腦半球的分工不同。左半球根據已知事物做理性思考。右半球專門做創造性的思考。右半球會進入一種靈感、直覺、預感或認知狀態，這些都是無法理性思考的狀態。如果信息的本質是創造性的，那麽我們在理性層次就不了解它，所以無法理性地去解釋。根據定義，真正的創造性就是指產生以前沒有的東西。左右大腦的思考模式天生就有衝突，而理性邏輯的思考方式總是占上風，除非我們訓練自己的思想接受並相信創造性的信息。如果沒有這種訓練，我們很難根據自己的預感、直覺、靈感或認知去行動。
Acting appropriately on anything requires belief and clarity of intent, which keeps our minds and senses focused on the purpose at hand. If the source of our actions is creative in nature, and our rational mind hasn’t been properly trained to trust this source, then at some point in the process of acting on this information, our rational brain will flood our consciousness with conflicting and competing thoughts. Of course, all of these thoughts will be sound and reasonable in nature, because they will be coming from what we already know at a rational level, but they will have the effect of flipping us out of “the zone” or any other creative state of mind. There are few things in life more frustrating than recognizing the possibilities evident from a hunch, intuition, or an inspired idea, and not taking advantage of that potential because we talked ourselves out of it.
要想對任何事采取有效的行動，需要信念和明確的目標，它們會讓我們的思想和感覺聚焦在目標上。如果我們的行為本身是具有創造性的，但是我們的理性思維沒有接受過培訓，不相信這種創造性，那麽在我們行動的過程中，理性思維會給我們的意識製造衝突和矛盾的想法。當然，因為這些想法來自我們理性上已經知道的東西，所以這些想法聽起來都很有理；但是它們會讓我們無法進入“狀態”，或者是讓我們失去了創造性思維。在生活中有些事通過自己的直覺、感覺或靈感是能看到可能性的結果的，但是我們自己說服自己放棄了這個優勢，這真是令人失望。
I realize that what I’ve just said is still much too abstract to implement on a practical basis. So, I’m going to take you step-by-step through what it means to be completely focused in the “now moment opportunity flow.” My objective is that by the time you’ve read this chapter and Chapter 7, you will understand without a shred of doubt why your ultimate success as a trader cannot be realized until you develop a resolute, unshakeable belief in uncertainty.
我知道我說的東西太抽象了，沒有操作性。所以，我準備帶你一步一步地聚焦於“現在的機會流”。我的目標是，當你閱讀了本章和第07章，你就會明白，隻有當你絕對地不動搖地相信了不確定性，你才能最終成為一個成功的交易者。
The first step on the road toward getting your mind and the market in sync is to understand and completely accept the psychological realities of trading. This step is where most of the frustrations, disappointments, and mysteriousness associated with trading begin. Very few people who decide to trade ever take the time or expend the effort to think about what it means to be a trader. Most people who go into trading think that being a trader is synonymous with being a good market analyst.
要想讓思想和市場同步，第一步要理解並完全接受交易的心理現實。大部分的挫折、失望、和交易的神秘聯係都從第一步開始。極少有人花時間或用心去想成為交易者的含義是什麽。大部分人認為成為交易者就是成為一個好的市場分析師。
As I have mentioned, this couldn’t be further from the truth. Good market analysis can certainly contribute to and play a supporting role in one’s success, but it doesn’t deserve the attention and importance most traders mistakenly attach to it. Beneath the market behavior patterns that are so easy to become fixated on are some very unique psychological characteristics. It’s the nature of these psychological characteristics that determines how one needs “to be” in order to operate effectively in the market environment.
正如我所說，這和事實有差距。優秀的市場分析肯定對一個人的成功有幫助，有支持作用，但是交易者對市場分析的關注和重視是錯誤的。你會注意到在市場行為模式下麵還有非常獨特的心理特點，這些心理特點的性質決定了一個人要想在市場環境中有效地操作他必須成為什麽樣的人。
Operating effectively in an environment that has qualities, traits, or characteristics that are different from what we’re used to requires making some adjustments or changes in the way we normally think about things. For example, if you were to travel to an exotic place with certain objectives or goals to accomplish, the first thing you would do is familiarize yourself with the local traditions and customs. By doing so, you would learn about the various ways in which you would have to adapt in order to function successfully in that environment.
在有特點、特質或特征的市場環境中有效地操作和我們通常的想法是不同的。比如，如果你要去外國做某件事，首先你要了解當地的風俗習慣。要想在當地的環境中把事情辦好，你就要學習不同的方法並適應不同的方法。
Traders frequently ignore the fact that they may have to adapt in order to become consistently successful traders. There are two reasons for this. The first is that you need absolutely no skill of any kind to put on a winning trade. For most traders it usually takes years of pain and suffering before they figure out or finally admit to themselves that there’s more to being consistent than the ability to pick an occasional winner.
在成為持續一致成功交易者的路上，交易者經常忽視了一個事實，那就是要適應。有兩個理由，第一個理由是，即使你什麽都不懂，你也會碰上賺錢的交易。大部分交易者通常需要經過幾年的痛苦才明白或最終承認，實現持續一致性比找到偶爾的賺錢機會更重要。
The second reason is that you don’t have to travel anywhere to trade. All you need is access to a phone. You don’t even have to roll out of bed in the morning. Even traders who normally trade from an office don’t have to be in the office to put on or take off their trades. Because we can access and interact with the market from personal environments that we are intimately familiar with, it seems as if trading won’t require any special adaptations in the way we think.
第二個理由是你不必為了交易而千方百計地想辦法。隻要能打電話就行了。你甚至沒有必要在早上起床。即使是在辦公室交易的交易者也沒有必要一定在辦公室交易。因為我們可以在自己熟悉的環境裏和接觸市場，看起來似乎交易並不需要特意改變我們的想法。
To some degree, you are probably already aware of many of the fundamental truths (psychological characteristics) about the nature of trading. But having an awareness or an understanding of some principle, insight, or concept doesn’t necessarily equate to acceptance and belief. When something has been truly accepted, it isn’t in conflict with any other component of our mental environment. When we believe in something, we operate out of that belief as a natural function of who we are, without struggle or extra effort. To whatever degree there is a conflict with any other component of our mental environment, to the same degree there is a lack of acceptance.
在某種程度上，你可能早就知道了很多關於交易的基本事實（心理特點）。但是知道或了解一些原則、知識或概念並不等於你接受了它們，也不等於你有同樣的信念。隻有完全接受了它們，才不會和我們的心理環境產生衝突。當我們相信某些事物的時候，我們不需要掙紮或努力，就能自然地去行動。如果它們和我們心理環境因素還有一定程度的衝突，那麽就等於我們在同樣程度上沒有接受它們。
It isn’t difficult, therefore, to understand why so few people make it as traders. They simply don’t do the mental work necessary to reconcile the many conflicts that exist between what they’ve already learned and believe, and how that learning contradicts and acts as a source of resistance to implementing the various principles of successful trading. Getting into and taking advantage of the kind of free-flowing states of mind that are ideal for trading requires that those conflicts be thoroughly resolved.
因此，不難理解為何隻有少數人能成為交易者。對於已經學到的知識和理念與成功交易原則之間的衝突，他們可以輕鬆地化解掉，並不需要借用心理過程就能化解。要想掌握並利用理想交易的自由思想，需要徹底解決那些衝突。
MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS )
市場最基本的特征（它幾乎可以用任何組合方式來表達自己）
The market can do virtually anything at any time. This seems obvious enough, especially for anybody who has experienced a market that has displayed erratic and volatile price swings. The problem is that all of us have the tendency to take this characteristic for granted, in ways that cause us to make the most fundamental trading errors over and over again. The fact is that if traders really believed that anything could happen at any time, there would be considerably fewer losers and more consistent winners.
市場可以在任意時刻做任何事。對於曾經體驗過瘋狂的價格波動的人來說，這個說法是貼切的。問題是，我們都傾向於認為這個特征是自然的，導致我們一次又一次地犯基本的交易錯誤。事實是，如果交易者真的相信任何事都有可能隨時發生，那麽輸家將很少，持續一致的贏家將會有很多。
How do we know that virtually anything can happen? This fact is easy to establish. All we have to do is dissect the market into its component parts and look at how the parts operate. The most fundamental component of any market is its traders. Individual traders act as a force on prices, making them move by either bidding a price up or offering it lower.
我們如何理解任何事都會發生？事實可以比較容易地看出來。我們可以把市場分解成幾個部分，看看每個部分的工作情況。任何市場最基本的元素是交易者。交易者是推動價格的力量，交易者讓價格上漲或下跌。
Why do traders bid a price up or offer it lower? To answer this question we have to establish the reasons why people trade. There are many reasons and purposes behind a person’s motivation to trade in any given market. However, for the purposes of this illustration, we don’t have to know all the underlying reasons that compel any individual trader to act because ultimately they all boil down to one reason and one purpose: to make money. We know this because there are only two things a trader can do (buy and sell) and there are only two possible outcomes for every trade (profit or loss).
交易者在報價時，為何會報高價或低價？為了回答這個問題，我們要找到人們交易的理由。交易者交易的理由很多，目的也很多。然而，談到目的，我們不必知道所有的理由，因為最終的理由和目的是：賺錢。我們知道這點是因為交易者隻能做兩件事（買和賣），每筆交易也隻有兩個結果（利潤或虧損）。
Therefore, I think we can safely assume that regardless of one’s reasons for trading, the bottom line is that everyone is looking for the same outcome: Profits. And there are only two ways to create those profits: Either buy low and sell high, or sell high and buy low. If we assume that everyone wants to make money, then there’s only one reason why any trader would bid a price up to the next highest level: because he believes he can sell whatever he’s buying at a higher price at some point in the future. The same is true for the trader who’s willing to sell something at a price that is less than the last posted price (offer a market lower). He does it because he believes he can buy back whatever he’s selling at a lower price at some point in the future.
因此，我可以這麽認為，不管每個人交易的理由是什麽，其實每個人的追求是一樣的：利潤。賺取利潤的方法隻有兩個：低買高賣，或高賣低買。如果我們知道每個人都是為了賺錢，那麽交易者報高價的原因隻有一個：因為他可以在將來以更高的價格賣出。對於以比市場價還低的價格賣出（導致價格下跌）的交易者，道理是一樣的，他做空是因為他認為在將來可以以更低的價格回補。
If we look at the market’s behavior as a function of price movement, and if price movement is a function of traders who are willing to bid prices up or offer them lower, then we can say that all price movement (market behavior) is a function of what traders believe about the future. To be more specific, all price movement is a function of what individual traders believe about what is high and what is low.
如果我們把市場行為看成是價格的波動，如果價格的波動是因為交易者願意報高價或報低價，那麽我們可以說所有的價格波動（市場行為）是交易者對未來的預期功能。再具體地說就是所有的價格波動是每個交易者對價格高低的認知功能。
The underlying dynamics of market behavior are quite simple. Only three primary forces exist in any market: traders who believe the price is low, traders who believe the price is high, and traders who are watching and waiting to make up their minds about whether the price is low or high. Technically, the third group constitutes a potential force. The reasons that support any given traders belief that something is high or low are usually irrelevant, because most people who trade act in an undisciplined, unorganized, haphazard, and random manner. So, their reasons wouldn’t necessarily help anyone gain a better understanding of what is going on.
市場行為下麵的力量（動力）很簡單，在任何市場下麵隻有三種最基本的力量：認為價格低的交易者，認為價格高的交易者，想根據價格高低再做決定並在觀望的交易者。這三組交易者構成了一個潛在的力量。因為大部分交易者在交易時都是沒有紀律的、沒有組織的、雜亂的、隨機的，所以交易者對於價格高低的信念理由通常也是互不相幹的。因此，他們的理由並不能幫助任何人更好地看懂市場。
But, understanding what’s going on isn’t that difficult, if you remember that all price movement or lack of movement is a function of the relative balance or imbalance between two primary forces: traders who believe the price is going up, and traders who believe the price is going down. If there’s balance between the two groups, prices will stagnate, because each side will absorb the force of the other side’s actions. If there is an imbalance, prices will move in the direction of the greater force, or the traders who have the stronger convictions in their beliefs about in what direction the price is going.
但是，如果你知道價格是否波動是兩組基本力量的平衡關係造成的：相信價格要漲的交易者，和相信價格要跌的交易者就是這兩組力量，那麽想知道市場的現狀並沒有那麽困難。如果兩組力量平衡，價格就會停滯，因為每一方都會吸收對方的力量。如果平衡被打破，價格會向力量大的一方波動，或者是向有更強信念的一方波動。
Now, I want you to ask yourself, what’s going to stop virtually anything from happening at any time, other than exchange-imposed limits on price movement. There’s nothing to stop the price of an issue from going as high or low as whatever some trader in the world believes is possible - if, of course, the trader is willing to act on that belief. So the range of the market’s behavior in its collective form is limited only by the most extreme beliefs about what is high and what is low held by any given individual participating in that market. I think the implications are self-evident: There can be an extreme diversity of beliefs present in any given market in any given moment, making virtually anything possible.
現在，請問問你自己，如果不考慮交易所限製的漲停和跌停，什麽東西會阻止在任意時刻任何事情的發生。如果交易者認為價格會漲或跌並根據自己的信念采取了行動，那麽是沒有什麽東西能阻止價格的漲跌的。所以，市場的波動範圍受交易者集體信念的影響，每個市場參與者都會認為價格是高了，或是低了。我認為它的含義是不言而喻的：在任何市場，任意時刻，市場裏的信念都是不同的，導致任何事都有可能發生。
When we look at the market from this perspective, it’s easy to see that every potential trader who is willing to express his belief about the future becomes a market variable. On a more personal level, this means that it only takes one other trader, anywhere in the world, to negate the positive potential of your trade. Put another way, it takes only one other trader to negate what you believe about what is high or what is low. That’s all, only one!
當我們用這個觀點來看待市場時，我們很容易地發現，任何交易者表達自己的方式都會成為市場的變數。從個人的角度來說，隻有另外一個交易者來抵消你的交易。換句話說，隻要另外一個交易者就可以抵消你對市場的看法，無論是高，還是低。沒錯，隻要一個交易者就行了！
Here’s an example to illustrate this point. Several years ago, a trader came to me for help. He was an excellent market analyst; in fact, he was one of the best I’ve ever met. But after years of frustration during which he lost all his money and a lot of other people’s money, he was finally ready to admit that, as a trader, he left a lot to be desired. After talking to him for a while, I determined that a number of serious psychological obstacles were preventing him from being successful. One of the most troublesome obstacles was that he was a know-it-all and extremely arrogant, making it impossible for him to achieve the degree of mental flexibility required to trade effectively. It didn’t matter how good an analyst he was. When he came to me, he was so desperate for money and help that he was willing to consider anything.
還有一個例子可以說明這點。幾年前，一個交易者找我幫忙。他是優秀的市場分析人士；實際上，他是我遇到的最優秀的分析人士之一。多年的挫折，他不但把自己的錢虧光了，還虧光了別人的很多錢，最後他承認，作為交易者，他失去的太多了。和他談了一會兒，我發現他有一些心理障礙，導致他不能成功。其中一個最大的障礙是他什麽都知道，很自大，所以他的思想不夠靈活，無法實現交易的有效性。無論他是多麽優秀的分析人士，當他找我時，他對錢和幫助充滿了渴望，他願意考慮一切可能性的東西。
The first suggestion I made was that instead of looking for another investor to back what ultimately would be another failed attempt at trading, he would be better off taking a job, doing something he was truly good at. He could be paid a steady income while working through his problems, and at the same time provide someone with a worthwhile service. He took my advice and quickly found a position as a technical analyst with a fairly substantial brokerage house and clearing firm in Chicago.
我的第一個建議不是再找一個投資者來幫忙投資，這樣可能最終又是失敗的，他應該找個工作，做他最擅長的事。他可以一邊領工資，一邊解決問題，同時為別人提供有價值的服務。他采取了我的建議，很快在芝加哥的一家大型經紀清算公司找到了一個技術分析師的職位。
The semiretired chairman of the board of the brokerage firm was a longtime trader with nearly 40 years of experience in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade. He didn’t know much about technical analysis, because he never needed it to make money on the floor. But he no longer traded on the floor and found the transition to trading from a screen difficult and somewhat mysterious. So he asked the firm’s newly acquired star technical analyst to sit with him during the trading day and teach him technical trading. The new hire jumped at the opportunity to show off his abilities to such an experienced and successful trader.
這家經紀公司的主席快退休了，他在芝加哥交易所穀物品種的場內交易了接近40年。因為他在場內交易，不需要技術分析，所以他不懂技術分析。但是他現在不在場內交易了，他發現看著屏幕交易真難，有點神奇。所以他讓公司新招的明星技術分析師坐在他旁邊，教他用技術進行交易。這位新來的分析師抓住機會，向有豐富經驗的成功交易者展示自己的能力。
The analyst was using a method called “point and line,” developed by Charlie Drummond. (Among other things, point and line can accurately define support and resistance.) One day, as the two of them were watching the soybean market together, the analyst had projected major support and resistance points and the market happened to be trading between these two points. As the technical analyst was explaining to the chairman the significance of these two points, he stated in very emphatic, almost absolute terms that if the market goes up to resistance, it will stop and reverse; and if the market goes down to support, it will also stop and reverse. Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day.
這位分析師用的方法叫“點線”，是查理•德拉蒙德發明的（在所有的方法中，點線可以準確地定義支撐和阻力）。一天，兩個人正在一起看大豆市場，這個分析師預測了支撐點和阻力點，市場正好在這兩點振蕩。當時，分析師向主席解釋了這兩點的重要性，他說的很明確，幾乎用了絕對的口氣，如果市場漲到阻力點，它就會停止並反轉；如果市場跌到支撐點，它也會停止並反轉。他還解釋了，如果市場跌到了他計算出的支撐點，那麽他的計算表明這就是當天的最低點。
As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, “This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?” The analyst responded, “Absolutely! This is the low of the day.”  “That’s bullshit!” the chairman retorted. “Watch this.” He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, “Sell two million beans (bushels) at the market.” Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, “Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can.”
當他們坐在那裏時，大豆市場慢慢地跌到所謂的支撐點或當天的最低點。當價格最終到了支撐點時，主席看著分析師說：“市場將在這裏停住並上漲，對嗎？”分析師回應：“絕對是的！這就是今天的最低點。”“你在胡扯！”主席反駁道：“看這個。”他拿起電話，打給場內幫他下單的職員，並說：“以市價賣出200萬（蒲式耳）的大豆。”他下單後的30秒後，大豆下跌了10美分/蒲式耳。主席轉身看著分析師驚恐的臉色。他冷靜地問道：“現在你說市場會在哪裏停住？如果我可以這麽做，任何人都可以這麽做。”
The point is that from our own individual perspective as observers of the market, anything can happen, and it takes only one trader to do it. This is the hard, cold reality of trading that only the very best traders have embraced and accepted with no internal conflict. How do I know this? Because only the best traders consistently predefine their risks before entering a trade. Only the best traders cut their losses without reservation or hesitation when the market tells them the trade isn’t working. And only the best traders have an organized, systematic, money-management regimen for taking profits when the market goes in the direction of their trade.
我想說的重點是，從個人觀察者的角度來說，任何事都有可能發生，隻要一個交易者就可以實現。這是一個艱難，冷酷的交易現實，最優秀的交易者已經擁抱並在內心接受了這個現實，不會有內部衝突。我是如何知道這點的？因為隻有最優秀的交易者總是在交易前衡量好了風險。當市場告訴他們交易有問題時，隻有最優秀的交易者止損，不會有保留，也不會猶豫。當市場對他們有利時，隻有最優秀的交易者有組織、有係統、有資金管理，最終實現了利潤。
Not predefining your risk, not cutting your losses, or not systematically taking profits are three of the most common - and usually the most costly - trading errors you can make. Only the best traders have eliminated these errors from their trading. At some point in their careers, they learned to believe without a shred of doubt that anything can happen, and to always account for what they don’t know, for the unexpected.
不提前衡量風險、不止損或沒有兌現利潤的係統，這是三個最普遍的——通常也是成本最高的——錯誤。隻有最優秀的交易者會消滅這些錯誤。在他們的職業生涯中，他們有時會毫不懷疑地相信任何事都有可能發生，他們為未知的意想不到的事做了好心理準備。
Remember that there are only two forces that cause prices to move: traders who believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going down. At any given moment, we can see who has the stronger conviction by observing where the market is now relative to where it was at some previous moment. If a recognizable pattern is present, that pattern may repeat itself, giving us an indication of where the market is headed. This is our edge, something we know.
記住，隻有兩種力量會導致價格波動：相信市場會上漲的交易者和相信市場會下跌的交易者。把任意時刻的市場和之前的市場進行對比，我們就能看出市場中哪一方更有信心。如果市場中有明顯的模式，這個模式也許會重複出現，那麽它就會指示市場向哪個方向走。這就是我們的優勢，這是我們知道的因素。
But there’s also much that we don’t know, and will never know unless we learn how to read minds. For instance, do we know how many traders may be sitting on the sidelines and about to enter the market? Do we know how many of them want to buy and how many want to sell, or how many shares they are willing to buy or sell? What about the traders whose participation is already reflected in the current price? At any given moment, how many of them are about to change their minds and exit their positions? If they do, how long will they stay out of the market? And if and when they do come back into the market, in what direction will they cast their votes?
如果我們不學習如何解讀大眾心理，那麽還有很多東西我們不知道，可能永遠都不知道。比如，我們是否知道有多少交易者正在等待，隨時會進場？我們是否知道有多少人要買入，有多少人要賣出，或者是他們要買賣多少股？如果交易者的行為已經被價格反應了，會如何？在任意時刻，有多少人要改變想法並平倉？如果他們要這麽做，他們會空倉多久？如果他們再次回到市場，他們進場方向如何？
These are the constant, never-ending, unknown, hidden variables that are always operating in every market - always! The best traders don’t try to hide from these unknown variables by pretending they don’t exist, nor do they try to intellectualize or rationalize them away through market analysis. Quite the contrary, the best traders take these variables into account, factoring them into every component of their trading regimes.
在任何市場，這些持續的、永無止境的、未知的、隱藏的變數總是存在！最優秀的交易者不會通過假裝不知道來隱藏這些未知的變數，他們不會設法讓自己變得更聰明，也不會通過市場分析把這些變數合理化。相反，最優秀的交易者在他們的交易計劃中提前考慮了這些變數，把變數作為一個因素來考慮。
For the typical trader, just the opposite is true. He trades from the perspective that what he can’t see, hear, or feel must not exist. What other explanation could account for his behavior? If he really believed in the existence of all the hidden variables that have the potential to act on prices in any given moment, then he would also have to believe that every trade has an uncertain outcome. And if every trade truly has an uncertain outcome, then how could he ever justify or talk himself into not predefining his risk, cutting his losses, or having some systematic way to take profits? Given the circumstances, not adhering to these three fundamental principles is the equivalent of committing financial and emotional suicide.
對於典型的交易者來說，隻有相反的情況才是真實的。他認為自己無法看到的、無法聽到的、無法感覺到的東西一定不存在，他根據這個認知做交易。對於他的行為，還有其它解釋嗎？如果他真的相信一些隱藏的變數隨時會影響價格的波動，那麽他就應該相信每筆交易都會有不確定的結果。如果每筆交易都會有不確定的結果，那麽他是如何說服自己不衡量風險、不止損、不係統地兌現利潤？綜合以上，不堅守這3條基本的原則就等於是金錢上和情緒上的自殺。
Since most traders don’t adhere to these principles, are we to assume that their true underlying motivation for trading is to destroy themselves? It’s certainly possible, but I think the percentage of traders who either consciously or subconsciously want to rid themselves of their money or hurt themselves in some way is extremely small. So, if financial suicide is not the predominant reason, then what could keep someone from doing something that would otherwise make absolute, perfect sense? The answer is quite simple: The typical trader doesn’t predefine his risk, cut his losses, or systematically take profits because the typical trader doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only reason why he would believe it isn’t necessary is that he believes he already knows what’s going to happen next, based on what he perceives is happening in any given “now moment.” If he already knows, then there’s really no reason to adhere to these principles. Believing, assuming, or thinking that “he knows” will be the cause of virtually every trading error he has the potential to make (with the exception of those errors that are the result of not believing that he deserves the money).
因為大部分交易者不遵守這3條原則，那麽我們是不是可以認定他們交易的動機就是為了自毀？有這個可能，但我認為大部分交易者有意識或無意識地揮霍錢財或傷害自己的概率還是太小了。如果金錢方麵的自殺不是主要原因，那麽是什麽東西阻止了一個人絕對理性地做事？答案很簡單：典型的交易者不提前衡量風險、不止損、不係統地兌現利潤的原因是他們認為沒有必要。他認為沒有必要的原因是他認為他知道結果是什麽，他根據“現在”就能知道結果。如果他已經知道結果了，那麽實在沒有理由去遵守這些原則。他相信、認為、心想“他知道”是他在交易時可能犯錯的原因（如果他不相信他會賺錢，結果犯錯了，則是例外情況）。
Our beliefs about what is true and real are very powerful inner forces. They control every aspect of how we interact with the markets, from our perceptions, interpretations, decisions, actions, and expectations, to our feelings about the results. It’s extremely difficult to act in a way that contradicts what we believe to be true. In some cases, depending on the strength of the belief, it can be next to impossible to do anything that violates the integrity of a belief.
我們對真實的信念是一個很強的內部力量。它控製著我們在交易時的方方麵麵，包括對結果的認知、理解、決定、行動、預期和感覺。和我們相信的東西反著做是超級困難的。有時候，根據信念力量力量的大小，我們發現幾乎不可能違背自己的信念去做事。
What the typical trader doesn’t realize is that he needs an inner mechanism, in the form of some powerful beliefs, that virtually compels him to perceive the market from a perspective that is always expanding with greater and greater degrees of clarity, and also compels him always act appropriately, given the psychological conditions and the nature of price movement. The most effective and functional trading belief that he can acquire is “anything can happen.” Aside from the fact that it is the truth, it will act as a solid foundation for building every other belief and attitude that he needs to be a successful trader.
典型的交易者不知道他需要一個內部機製，這個內部機製就是強有力的信念，這個信念讓他越來越清楚地認識市場，並根據心理狀況和價格波動讓他總是合理地行動。對他來說，最有效，最基本的交易信念就是“任何事都會發生”。除了這個事實，要想成為成功的交易者，這個信念還要成為其它信念和態度的堅定基礎。
Without that belief, his mind will automatically, and usually without his conscious awareness, cause him to avoid, block, or rationalize away any information that indicates the market may do something he hasn’t accepted as possible. If he believes that anything is possible, then there’s nothing for his mind to avoid. Because anything includes everything, this belief will act as an expansive force on his perception of the market that will allow him to perceive information that might otherwise have been invisible to him. In essence, he will be making himself available (opening his mind) to perceive more of the possibilities that exist from the markets perspective.
沒有這個信念，他的思維會自動地，通常是無意識地讓他避免、阻擋或化解一些信息，而這些信息包含了他認為不可能會發生的事。如果他相信任何事都有可能發生，那麽他就沒有理由去回避。因為任何事包括所有的事，這個信念成為一個力量，讓他看見過去看不見的信息。總之，他會看見市場中更多的可能性（思維開放）並盡量去捕捉機會。
Most important, by establishing a belief that anything can happen, he will be training his mind to think in probabilities. This is by far the most essential as well as the most difficult principle for people to grasp and to effectively integrate into their mental systems.
更重要的是，一旦有了任何事都會發生的信念，他就會訓練自己的思維去考慮概率。對於交易者來說，這是最精華的，也是最難掌握的原則，這個原則需要有效地融入他們的心理係統。
CHAPTER 7 THE TRADER’S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES
第07章 交易者的優勢：用概率思考
Exactly what does it mean to think in probabilities, and why is it so essential to one’s consistent success as a trader? If you take a moment and analyze the last sentence, you will notice that I made consistency a function of probabilities. It sounds like a contradiction: How can someone produce consistent results from an event that has an uncertain probabilistic outcome? To answer this question, all we have to do is look to the gambling industry.
究竟什麽是用概率思考，為什麽用概率思考對成為持續一致成功交易者很關鍵？如果你花點時間研究上麵最後一句話，你會注意到我把持續一致性說成是概率的功能。這聽起來很矛盾：一個人如何從不確定的概率裏麵得到持續一致的結果？要想回答這個問題，我們就要看看賭博行業。
Corporations spend vast amounts of money, in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, on elaborate hotels to attract people to their casinos. If you’ve been to Las Vegas you know exactly what I am talking about. Gaming corporations are just like other corporations, in that they have to justify how they allocate their assets to a board of directors and ultimately to their stockholders. How do you suppose they justify spending vast sums of money on elaborate hotels and casinos, whose primary function is to generate revenue from an event that has a purely random outcome?
賭場公司會花很多錢，用幾億的資金建造漂亮的酒店，以吸引客人來賭場遊玩。如果你去過拉斯維加斯，你就會明白我在說什麽。賭場公司和其它公司一樣，這麽做就可以合理地向董事會和股東說明他們是如何分配資產的。他們已經花了大量的資金去建造酒店和賭場，如果它們產生的收入純粹是隨機的，你會怎麽想？
PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS
概率的似非而是：隨機的結果，持續一致的收入
Here’s an interesting paradox. Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market’s behavior is not random, yet can’t seem to produce consistent profits. Shouldn’t a consistent, nonrandom outcome produce consistent results, and a random outcome produce random, inconsistent results?
這是一個有趣的似非而是的現象。利用一件純粹隨機的事件，賭場可以日複一日，年複一年地賺到持續一致的利潤。同時，大部分交易者認為市場行為的結果不是隨機的，然而也不能產生持續一致的利潤。是不是持續一致的，不隨機的結果會產生持續一致的收益；而隨機的結果會產生隨機的，不持續一致的收益？
What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: even that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling.
賭場擁有者，有經驗的賭徒和最優秀的交易者都能明白，而典型的交易者很難理解的是：隻要樣本足夠大，隻要你擁有概率優勢，那麽可能的結果也會產生持續一致的收益。最優秀的交易者把交易當作賭博，這與賭場和專業賭徒賭博的方式相似。
To illustrate, let’s look at the game of blackjack. In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player, based on the rules they require players to adhere to. This means that, over a large enough sample size (number of hands played), the casino will generate net profits of four and a half cents on every dollar wagered on the game. This average of four and a half cents takes into account all the players who walked away big winners (including all winning streaks), all the players who walked away big losers, and everybody in between. At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.
為了說明這點，請看看撲克牌的21點。在21點中，根據遊戲規則的規定，賭場的優勢比玩家多4.5%。這意味著，隻要樣本足夠大（牌局的數量），每個牌局下來1美元的賭注會為賭場帶來4.5美分的淨利潤。所有賺大錢並離開的贏家（所有的牌局），所有虧錢離開的輸家以及所有玩家，隻要他們下了1美元的賭注，他們就為賭場貢獻了4.5美分。每天、每周、每月、每年，賭場都賺了所有賭資的4.5%左右。
That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let’s put it in perspective. Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino’s blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.
4.5%聽起來不多，但是讓我們算算。假如一年下來，玩21點的總賭資是1個億，那麽賭場的淨利潤是450萬。
What casino owners and professional gamblers understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played is statistically independent of every other hand. This means that each individual hand is a unique event, where the outcome is random relative to the last hand played or the next hand played. If you focus on each hand individually, there will be a random, unpredictable distribution between winning and losing hands. But on a collective basis, just the opposite is true. If a large enough number of hands is played, patterns will emerge that produce a consistent, predictable, and statistically reliable outcome.
賭場擁有者和專業賭徒都知道每個牌局的結果都不一樣，但概率一樣。這意味著每個牌局都是獨特的事件，結果都是隨機的，結果和前後牌局都不一樣。如果你聚焦於每個牌局，結果都是隨機的，也是無法預測的，有些人贏，有些人輸。但是總體而言，事實卻相反。如果賭了很多局，某些模式就會出現，就會產生持續一致、可預測的、統計可靠的結果。
Here’s what makes thinking in probabilities so difficult. It requires two layers of beliefs that on the surface seem to contradict each other. We’ll call the first layer the micro level. At this level, you have to believe in the uncertainty and unpredictability of each individual hand. You know the truth of this uncertainty, because there are always a number of unknown variables affecting the consistency of the deck that each new hand is drawn from. For example, you can’t know in advance how any of the other participants will decide to play their hands, since they can either take or decline additional cards. Any variables acting on the consistency of the deck that can’t be controlled or known in advance will make the outcome of any particular hand both uncertain and random (statistically independent) in relationship to any other hand.
這顯得用概率思考是很難的。這需要你有兩層信念，而表麵上看起來這兩層信念又是矛盾的。我們把第一層信念叫做微觀層次。在這個層次，你要相信每個牌局是不確定的，是無法預測的。因為不同的牌局總是有大量未知的變數在影響發牌和出牌的持續一致性，所以你知道不確定這個事實。比如，因為你的對手可以拿牌，也可以不拿牌，所以你無法提前知道你的對手怎麽出牌。所有影響持續一致性的變數是無法控製的，也不能提前知道，這樣就導致每個牌局的結果是不確定的，是隨機的（統計結果證明每個牌局的結果是相互獨立的）。
The second layer is the macro level. At this level, you have to believe that the outcome over a series of hands played is relatively certain and predictable. The degree of certainty is based on the fixed or constant variables that are known in advance and specifically designed to give an advantage (edge) to one side or the other. The constant variables I am referring to are the rules of the game. So, even though you don’t or couldn’t know in advance (unless you are psychic) the sequence of wins to losses, you can be relatively certain that if enough hands are played, whoever has the edge will end up with more wins than losses. The degree of certainty is a function of how good the edge is.
第二層信念叫宏觀層次。在這個層次，你要相信很多牌局打下來，結果是確定的，是可以預測的。提前規定的遊戲規則會給某一方優勢，這個優勢是一個固定的變數，這個變數就是確定性的程度。我說的固定的變數就是遊戲規則。所以，即使你不能提前知道輸贏情況（除非你是通靈大師），你也能知道玩了很多牌局以後那些具有優勢的人會贏的多，輸的少。確定的程度取決於優勢的大小。
It’s the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at what they do. Their belief in the uniqueness of each hand prevents them from engaging in the pointless endeavor of trying to predict the outcome of each individual hand. They have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don’t know what’s going to happen next. More important, they don’t need to know in order to make money consistently.
在微觀層次相信牌局是無法預測的，同時在宏觀層次相信牌局是可以預測的，賭場和專業賭徒正是這樣才實現了有效的成功。他們相信每個牌局是獨特的，所以他們不會無謂地猜測每個牌局的結果。他們已經明白並完全接受了這個事實，那就是他們不知道下一步會如何。更重要的是，他們不需要知道下一步會如何也能實現持續一致地賺錢。
Because they don’t have to know what’s going to happen next, they don’t place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they’re not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it’s easier to stay focused on keeping the odds in their favor and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making costly mistakes. They stay relaxed because they are committed and willing to let the probabilities (their edges) play themselves out, all the while knowing that if their edges are good enough and the sample sizes are big enough, they will come out net winners.
因為他們沒有必要知道下一步會如何，所以他們不會對每一個牌局、輪盤或擲骰子有特定的感情。換句話說，他們不會有不切實際的想法，也不會為了自尊而證明自己必須正確。於是就可以輕鬆地聚焦於讓概率對自己有利並認真地執行，這樣他們就不會犯大錯誤。他們感到輕鬆是因為他們承諾並願意讓概率（他們的優勢）為他們工作，他們知道隻要自己的優勢還在，隻要賭博次數夠多，他們最終一定是贏家。
The best traders use the same thinking strategy as the casino and professional gambler. Not only does it work to their benefit, but the underlying dynamics supporting the need for such a strategy are exactly the same in trading as they are in gambling. A simple comparison between the two will demonstrate this quite clearly.
最優秀的交易者使用和賭場以及專業賭徒同樣的思考策略。這種思考策略不但有好處，而且內在的動力和賭博都是一樣的。簡單比較一下，就能清楚地說明這點。
First, the trader, the gambler, and the casino are all dealing with both known and unknown variables that affect the outcome of each trade or gambling event. In gambling, the known variables are the rules of the game. In trading, the known variables (from each individual trader’s perspective) are the results of their market analysis.
首先，交易者、賭徒和賭場都是在處理已知和未知的變數，這些變數會影響交易或賭博的結果。賭博時，已知的變數就是遊戲規則。交易時，已知的變數（每個交易者觀點不同）是市場分析的結果。
Market analysis finds behavior patterns in the collective actions of everyone participating in a market. We know that individuals will act the same way under similar situations and circumstances, over and over again, producing observable patterns of behavior. By the same token, groups of individuals interacting with one another, day after day, week after week, also produce behavior patterns that repeat themselves.
市場分析就是找出市場大眾的集體行為模式。我們知道，在同樣的狀況下，同樣的交易者會一次又一次地進行同樣的操作，這樣就會產生比較明顯的行為模式。同理，每天，每周，同樣的交易群體會反複交涉，導致的行為模式也會不斷重複。
These collective behavior patterns can be discovered and subsequently identified by using analytical tools such as trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, or retracements, just to name a few of the thousands that are available to any trader. Each analytical tool uses a set of criteria to define the boundaries of each behavior pattern identified. The set of criteria and the boundaries identified are the trader’s known market variables. They are to the individual trader what the rules of the game are to the casino and gambler. By this I mean, the trader’s analytical tools are the known variables that put the odds of success (the edge) for any given trade in the trader’s favor, in the same way that the rules of the game put the odds of success in favor of the casino.
可以使用一些工具，比如趨勢線、均線、振蕩指標或回調來發現並確認這些集體的行為模式。可用的工具有幾千個，我隻講了幾個。每個分析工具的參數不一樣，定義的行為模式範圍也不一樣。這些參數和定義的範圍就是交易者已知的市場變數。就像賭場的規則一樣，它們就是交易者個人的規則。對於交易者來說，這些分析工具就是已知的變數，會幫交易者增加成功的概率（優勢）；同理，賭場用自己的遊戲規則增加自己的概率從而獲得成功。
Second, we know that in gambling a number of unknown variables act on the outcome of each game. In blackjack, the unknowns are the shuffling of the deck and how the players choose to play their hands. In craps, it’s how the dice are thrown. And in roulette, it’s the amount of force applied to spin the wheel. All these unknown variables act as forces on the outcome of each individual event, in a way that causes each event to be statistically independent of any other individual event, thereby creating a random distribution between wins and losses.
第二，我們知道每個牌局都有一些未知的變數會影響賭局的結果。在21點中，未知的變數就是洗牌的方式和玩家出牌的方式，簡單說就是如何擲骰子。在輪盤賭中，未知的變數是輪盤轉動的力量。所有這些未知的變數會影響每個賭局的結果，這樣從統計結果來看，每個賭局的結果互不相幹，這樣輸贏就是隨機的。
Trading also involves a number of unknown variables that act on the outcome of any particular behavior pattern a trader may identify and use as his edge. In trading, the unknown variables are all other traders who have the potential to come into the market to put on or take off a trade. Each trade contributes to the market’s position at any given moment, which means that each trader, acting on a belief about what is high and what is low, contributes to the collective behavior pattern that is displayed at that moment.
交易中也會有未知的變數，它們也會影響特定行為模式的結果，交易者會把這些未知的變數看成是他們的優勢。交易時，未知變數可能會導致其他交易者進場或出場。每筆交易都對市場的點位做了貢獻，這意味著不同的人對市場點位的高低有不同的看法，他們根據自己的信念交易，從而導致了現在市場的集體行為模式。
If there is a recognizable pattern, and if the variables used to define that pattern conform to a particular trader’s definition of an edge, then we can say that the market is offering the trader an opportunity to buy low or sell high, based on the trader’s definition. Suppose the trader seizes the opportunity to take advantage of his edge and puts on a trade. What factors will determine whether the market unfolds in the direction of his edge or against it? The answer is: the behavior of other traders!
根據交易者個人的定義，根據交易者對優勢的定義，如果市場出現的某種模式符合他的定義，那麽就可以說市場給這位交易者提供了一個低買或高賣的機會。假如這個交易者抓住了機會並利用自己的優勢建倉了，什麽因素會決定市場的波動對他有利或不利？答案是：其他交易者的行為！
At the moment he puts a trade on, and for as long as he chooses to stay in that trade, other traders will be participating in that market. They will be acting on their beliefs about what is high and what is low. At any given moment, some percentage of other traders will contribute to an outcome favorable to our traders edge, and the participation of some percentage of traders will negate his edge. There’s no way to know in advance how everyone else is going to behave and how their behavior will affect his trade, so the outcome of the trade is uncertain. The fact is, the outcome of every (legal) trade that anyone decides to make is affected in some way by the subsequent behavior of other traders participating in that market, making the outcome of all trades uncertain.
當他建倉並持有倉位時，其他交易者也在市場中。他們會根據自己對點位高低的理解做交易。任意時刻，都有一些交易者給這位交易者製造優勢，還有一些交易者會給這位交易者製造劣勢。我們無法提前知道每個人的行為，也不知道他們的行為對交易有什麽影響，所以每筆交易的結果是不確定的。事實是，每筆（合法的）交易都會受到別人交易的影響，導致所有交易的結果都是不確定的。
Since all trades have an uncertain outcome, then like gambling, each trade has to be statistically independent of the next trade, the last trade, or any trades in the future, even though the trader may use the same set of known variables to identify his edge for each trade. Furthermore, if the outcome of each individual trade is statistically independent of every other trade, there must also be a random distribution between wins and losses in any given string or set of trades, even though the odds of success for each individual trade may be in the traders favor.
因為所有的交易都沒有確定的結果，那麽就和賭博類似，每筆交易都是相對獨立的，即使用同樣的已知變數來確定每筆的優勢，結果也是不確定的。還有，如果每筆交易的結果都是相對獨立的，即使每筆交易對交易者來說是占優勢的，每筆交易的輸贏一定有一個隨機的分布。
Third, casino owners don’t try to predict or know in advance the outcome of each individual event. Aside from the fact that it would be extremely difficult, given all the unknown variables operating in each game, it isn’t necessary to create consistent results. Casino operators have learned that all they have to do is keep the odds in their favor and have a large enough sample size of events so that their edges have ample opportunity to work.
第三，賭場擁有者不必去預測或提前知道每個賭局的結果。暫且不說這麽做的超級難度，即使考慮了每個賭局的所有未知變數，也不一定能產生持續一致的結果。賭場擁有者已經明白了，隻要對他們有利的概率不變，隻要賭局的次數夠多，他們就有優勢。
TRADING IN THE MOMENT
有機會就交易
Traders who have learned to think in probabilities approach the markets from virtually the same perspective. At the micro level, they believe that each trade or edge is unique. What they understand about the nature of trading is that at any given moment, the market may look exactly the same on a chart as it did at some previous moment; and the geometric measurements and mathematical calculations used to determine each edge can be exactly the same from one edge to the next; but the actual consistency of the market itself from one moment to the next is never the same.
交易者學習了這種概率的思考方法，就會用這種方法認知市場。在微觀層次，他們相信每筆交易或優勢都是獨特的。他們明白，在任意時刻市場的本質就和圖表一樣，和以前的圖表也一樣；每次用幾何和數學方法計算出來的優勢和下一個優勢也是一樣的；但是市場本身的持續一致性在每個時刻都是不同的。
For any particular pattern to be exactly the same now as it was in some previous moment would require that every trader who participated in that previous moment be present. What’s more, each of them would also have to interact with one another in exactly the same way over some period of time to produce the exact same outcome to whatever pattern was being observed. The odds of that happening are nonexistent.
如果要想讓現在出現的某個模式和過去的模式一模一樣，那麽就需要過去參與的交易者再次參與交易；而且，不管是什麽模式，每個交易者都必須互相交涉，方法和過去一樣，交易時間也一樣，結果也要一樣。發生這種情況的可能性是不存在的。
It is extremely important that you understand this phenomenon because the psychological implications for your trading couldn’t be more important. We can use all the various tools to analyze the market’s behavior and find the patterns that represent the best edges, and from an analytical perspective, these patterns can appear to be precisely the same in every respect, both mathematically and visually. But, if the consistency of the group of traders who are creating the pattern “now” is different by even one person from the group that created the pattern in the past, then the outcome of the current pattern has the potential to be different from the past pattern. (The example of the analyst and chairman illustrates this point quite well.) It takes only one trader, somewhere in the world, with a different belief about the future to change the outcome of any particular market pattern and negate the edge that pattern represents.
理解這個現象超級重要，因為心理暗示對交易很重要。我們可以用各種工具分析市場行為並發現了最具有優勢的模式，從分析的角度來看，無論是用數字計算，還是用肉眼看，這個模式和過去的模式都是一樣的。但是，隻要有一位交易者的行為和以前不一樣，那麽現在這個模式的結果就會和以前模式的結果不同（分析師和主席的案例能很好地說明這點）。隻要有一位交易者，無論他在哪裏，隻要他對未來的信念發生了變化，他就會改變市場模式的結果，讓優勢不複存在。
The most fundamental characteristic of the market’s behavior is that each “now moment” market situation, each “now moment” behavior pattern, and each “now moment” edge is always a unique occurrence with its own outcome, independent of all others. Uniqueness implies that anything can happen, either what we know (expect or anticipate), or what we don’t know (or can’t know, unless we had extraordinary perceptual abilities). A constant flow of both known and unknown variables creates a probabilistic environment where we don’t know for certain what will happen next.
市場行為最基本的特點是，每個“現在的”狀況，每個“現在的”行為模式，每個“現在的”優勢都是相對獨立的，結果都會不同。獨特意味著任何事都有可能會發生，我們知道的（期待或期望的）事會發生，我們不知道的（或是無法知道的，除非我們有超級靈感）的事也會發生。持續出現的已知和未知變數製造了概率的環境，我們無法確定下一步會如何。
This last statement may seem quite logical, even self-evident, but there’s a huge problem here that is anything but logical or self-evident. Being aware of uncertainty and understanding the nature of probabilities does not equate with an ability to actually function effectively from a probabilistic perspective. Thinking in probabilities can be difficult to master, because our minds don’t naturally process information in this manner. Quite the contrary, our minds cause us to perceive what we know, and what we know is part of our past, whereas, in the market, every moment is new and unique, even though there may be similarities to something that occurred in the past.
最後的結論是合理的，甚至是不言而喻的，但是有個大問題，並不是任何事都是合理的或不言而喻的。承認不確定性和知道概率的含義，並不等於能有效地行動。因為我們的思維一般不會處理概率信息，所以很難做到用概率思考。相反，我們的思維隻認識我們知道的東西，我們知道的東西都是過去的東西；然而即使市場中的一切事物和過去都很相像，但在本質上也是獨特的，新的。
This means that unless we train our minds to perceive the uniqueness of each moment, that uniqueness will automatically be filtered out of our perception. We will perceive only what we know, minus any information that is blocked by our fears; everything else will remain invisible. The bottom line is that there is some degree of sophistication to thinking in probabilities, which can take some people a considerable amount of effort to integrate into their mental systems as a functional thinking strategy. Most traders don’t fully understand this; as a result, they mistakenly assume they are thinking in probabilities, because they have some degree of understanding of the concepts.
這意味著，如果我們不訓練我們的思維認識獨特性，那麽獨特性就會被自動地從我們的認知中被過濾掉。我們隻會看見我們知道的東西，我們的恐懼還會阻擋一些信息，其它東西我們都看不見。簡單地說，概率很難理解，如果要把概率融於一個人的心理係統，確實要花很多精力。大部分交易者都不是很理解這點。於是他們以為他們懂概率，但其實他們不懂概率，因為他們隻是懂一些概念而已。
I’ve worked with hundreds of traders who mistakenly assumed they thought in probabilities, but didn’t. Here is an example of a trader I worked with whom I’ll call Bob. Bob is a certified trading advisor (CTA) who manages approximately $50 million in investments. He’s been in the business for almost 30 years. He came to one of my workshops because he was never able to produce more than a 12- to 18-percent annual return on the accounts he managed. This was an adequate return, but Bob was extremely dissatisfied because his analytical abilities suggested that he should be achieving an annual return of 150 to 200 percent.
我和幾百個交易者溝通過，他們錯誤地以為他們用概率思考，但其實沒有。我有個案例，有一位交易者叫鮑伯，鮑伯是注冊交易顧問，他管理的資金有5000萬美元。他在這行已經做了快30年了。因為他管理的賬戶年收益從來沒有超過12——18%，他去我的某個工作室找我幫忙。我認為他的收益不錯，但鮑伯不滿意，因為他的分析能力說明他的年收益應該是150——200%。
I would describe Bob as being well-versed in the nature of probabilities. In other words, he understood the concepts, but he didn’t function from a probabilistic perspective. Shortly after attending the workshop, he called to ask me for some advice. Here is the entry from my journal written immediately after that phone conversation.
應該說鮑伯非常懂概率。換句話說，他知道這個概念，但是他在操作時沒有考慮到概率。他去了我的工作室之後不久，他打電話給我，叫我給點建議。通完電話以後，我立刻做了以下這些記錄。
9-28-95: Bob called with a problem. He put on a belly trade and put his stop in the market. The market traded about a third of the way to his stop and then went back to his entry point, where he decided to bail out of the trade. Almost immediately after he got out, the bellies went 500 points in the direction of this trade, but of course he was out of the market. He didn’t understand what was going on.
95年9月28日：鮑伯打電話來，他有一個問題。他建了一個豬肉倉位並下了止損單。市場向他的止損點前進了三分之一，然後又回到了他的進場點，此時他決定平倉。幾乎在他平倉的同時，市場沿著他原來倉位的方向前進了500點，當然了他沒有跟上去。他不明白為什麽他會這樣。
First, I asked him what was at risk. He didn’t understand the question. He assumed that he had accepted the risk because he put in a stop. I responded that just because he put in a stop it didn’t mean that he had truly accepted the risk of the trade. There are many things that can be at risk: losing money, being wrong, not being perfect, etc., depending on one’s underlying motivation for trading. I pointed out that a person’s beliefs are always revealed by their actions. We can assume that he was operating out of a belief that to be a disciplined trader one has to define the risk and put a stop in. And so he did. But a person can put in a stop and at the same time not believe that he is going to be stopped out or that the trade will ever work against him, for that matter.
首先，我問他什麽是風險，他不明白我在問什麽。他認為他已經下了止損單，所以他已經接受了風險。我回應說，雖然他下了止損單，但他並沒有真正接受風險。風險有很多：虧錢、犯錯、不夠完美等等，根據每個人交易的動機不同而不同。我指出一個人的行為總是在反應他的信念。我們可以想象得到他的信念認為他是一個有紀律的交易者，他衡量了風險，他下了止損單，他確實是這麽做的。但是，一個人在下了止損單的同時又認為自己不可能被止損出去的，或者認為市場不可能和自己做對，這是矛盾的。
By the way he described the situation, it sounded to me as if this is exactly what happened to him. When he put on the trade, he didn’t believe he would be stopped out. Nor did he believe the market would trade against him. In fact, he was so adamant about this, that when the market came back to his entry point, he got out of the trade to punish the market with an “I’ll show you” attitude for even going against him by one tic.
當他描述他的狀況時，聽起來他就是這麽做的。當他建倉時，他不相信自己會被止損出場，也不相信市場在和他作對。實際上，他很固執，當市場回到他的進場點時，他平倉了，想懲罰市場，因為市場和他作對了。
After I pointed this out to him, he said this was exactly the attitude he had when he took off the trade. He said that he had been waiting for this particular trade for weeks and when the market finally got to this point, he thought it would immediately reverse. I responded by reminding him to look at the experience as simply pointing the way to something that he needs to learn. A prerequisite for thinking in probabilities is that you accept the risk, because if you don’t, you will not want to face the possibilities that you haven’t accepted, if and when they do present themselves.
當我指出來之後，他說他平倉時確實是這麽想的。他說他等這個機會等了幾周，當市場到了他的點位時，他以為市場會立刻反轉。我提醒他要從這次經曆中認識一些道理。概率思考的前提是接受風險，因為如果你不接受風險，當風險發生時，你就不願意麵對風險。
When you’ve trained your mind to think in probabilities, it means you have fully accepted all the possibilities (with no internal resistance or conflict) and you always do something to take the unknown forces into account. Thinking this way is virtually impossible unless you’ve done the mental work necessary to “let go” of the need to know what is going to happen next or the need to be right on each trade. In fact, the degree by which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader.
一旦你訓練了自己用概率思考，這意味著你就完全接受了所有的可能性（不會有內在的阻力或衝突），你就會綜合考慮未知因素。做到這點不容易，你不能總是想知道下一步會如何，你不能總是想讓自己正確，隻有你的心理“放棄”了這些想法，你才能用概率思考。實際上，你以為你知道、你想象你知道、你認為你必須知道下一步會如何的想法到了一定程度就等於你失敗了。
Traders who have learned to think in probabilities are confident of their overall success, because they commit themselves to taking every trade that conforms to their definition of an edge. They don’t attempt to pick and choose the edges they think, assume, or believe are going to work and act on those; nor do they avoid the edges that for whatever reason they think, assume, or believe aren’t going to work. If they did either of those things, they would be contradicting their belief that the “now” moment situation is always unique, creating a random distribution between wins and losses on any given string of edges. They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don’t know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren’t. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. They have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favor, just like the casinos.
因為學習用概率思考的交易者願意去抓住自己定義的優勢，所以他們對整體的成功是有信心的。他們不會去挑選他們以為、想象、相信有用的優勢，也不會避免他們以為、想象、相信沒用的優勢。如果他們采用了上麵兩種情況中任意的一種，他們就違反了“現在”永遠是獨特的信念，對於任何優勢，它產生的輸贏結果都是隨機分布的。他們痛苦地通過學習明白了無法提前知道哪個優勢有用，哪個優勢沒用，他們不再預測結果。他們發現隻要抓住每個優勢，多次交易，最終都會把任何優勢變成對他們有利的機會，這個道理和賭場是一樣的。
On the other hand, why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with market analysis. They crave the sense of certainty that analysis appears to give them. Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trader wants to be right on every single trade. He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn’t exist. The irony is that if he completely accepted the fact that certainty doesn’t exist, he would create the certainty he craves: He would be absolutely certain that certainty doesn’t exist.
相反，為何你認為不成功的交易者癡迷於市場分析。他們渴望分析的確定性。典型的交易者希望自己每筆交易都對，當然了隻有少數人會承認這點。他極度希望製造並不存在的確定性。諷刺的是，如果他完全相信確定性是不存在的，他就自己製造他渴望中的確定性：他必須絕對地確信確定性不存在才行。
When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment, your frustration with trading will end. Furthermore, you will no longer be susceptible to making all the typical trading errors that detract from your potential to be consistent and destroy your sense of self-confidence. For example not defining the risk before getting into a trade is by far the most common of all trading errors, and starts the whole process of trading from an inappropriate perspective. In light of the fact that anything can happen, wouldn’t it make perfect sense to decide before executing a trade what the market has to look, sound, or feel like to tell you your edge isn’t working? So why doesn’t the typical trader decide to do it or do it every single time?
一旦你接受了每個優勢都是不確定的而且任意時刻都是獨特的，你交易時的挫折感就消失了。而且，你不再犯錯，不會失去持續一致性，也不會失去信心。比如，在交易前不衡量風險是最普遍的錯誤，剛開始交易時有這種想法就是不恰當的認知。考慮到任何事都會發生，如果在交易前市場看起來、聽起來或感覺上是要告訴你你的優勢沒用，那麽在交易前衡量風險是不是比較完美呢？既然如此，為什麽典型的交易者不知道每次都這麽做呢？
I have already given you the answer in the last chapter, but there’s more to it and there’s also some tricky logic involved, but the answer is simple. The typical trader won’t predefine the risk of getting into a trade because he doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only way he could believe “it isn’t necessary” is if he believes he knows what’s going to happen next. The reason he believes he knows what’s going to happen next is because he won’t get into a trade until he is convinced that he’s right. At the point where he’s convinced the trade will be a winner, it’s no longer necessary to define the risk (because if he’s right, there is no risk).
上一章已經給出了答案，但是還有更多的東西要講，有些邏輯還有陷阱，但是答案是簡單的。典型的交易者不提前衡量風險是因為他覺得沒有必要。既然他知道結果是什麽，他就認為衡量風險是沒有必要的。因為如果他不確信他是對的，他是不會交易的。他確信他的交易會賺錢，所以沒有必要提前衡量風險（因為如果他是對的，那麽就沒有風險）。
Typical traders go through the exercise of convincing themselves that they’re right before they get into a trade, because the alternative (being wrong) is simply unacceptable. Remember that our minds are wired to associate. As a result, being wrong on any given trade has the potential to be associated with any (or every) other experience in a trader’s life where he’s been wrong. The implication is that any trade can easily tap him into the accumulated pain of every time he has been wrong in his life. Given the huge backlog of unresolved, negative energy surrounding what it means to be wrong that exists in most people, it’s easy to see why each and every trade can literally take on the significance of a life or death situation.
因為犯錯是不能接受的，所以典型的交易者在交易前會確信他是對的。請記住我們的思維是有聯想能力的。在交易時犯錯會和其它生活中的錯誤聯係在一起的。這就是說任何一筆交易都會觸及到他在生活中因為犯錯而造成的痛苦。考慮到大量的未化解的，消極的能量存在於大部分人身上，就不難理解為何每筆交易都會如此重要或置人於死地。
So, for the typical trader, determining what the market would have to look, sound, or feel like to tell him that a trade isn’t working would create an irreconcilable dilemma. On one hand, he desperately wants to win and the only way he can do that is to participate, but the only way he will participate is if he’s sure the trade will win.
所以，對於典型的交易者來說，如果市場看起來、聽起來或感覺上是告訴他這筆交易沒用，那麽他就會進入無法協調的兩難處境。另一方麵，但極度希望贏，唯一的辦法就是期待這筆交易會贏，肯定這筆交易會贏。
On the other hand, if he defines his risk, he is willfully gathering evidence that would negate something he has already convinced himself of. He will be contradicting the decision-making process he went through to convince himself that the trade will work. If he exposed himself to conflicting information, it would surely create some degree of doubt about the viability of the trade. If he allows himself to experience doubt, it’s very unlikely he will participate. If he doesn’t put the trade on and it turns out to be a winner, he will be in extreme agony. For some people, nothing hurts more than an opportunity recognized but missed because of self-doubt. For the typical trader, the only way out of this psychological dilemma is to ignore the risk and remain convinced that the trade is right.
另一方麵，如果他衡量了風險，他會找證據證明沒有風險，他會通過痛苦的心理過程以證明交易是可行的。如果他碰到了一些有衝突的信息，他會對交易的可行性產生一定程度懷疑。如果他產生了懷疑，他就不會交易。如果他不交易，而交易又是賺錢的，他就會超級痛苦。對有些人來說，看見了機會，但因為自我懷疑而錯過的話，那是最痛苦的。對於典型的交易者，唯一脫離兩難的方法就是忽視風險並認為自己的交易是對的。
If any of this sounds familiar, consider this: When you’re convincing yourself that you’re right, what you’re saying to yourself is, “I know who’s in this market and who’s about to come into this market. I know what they believe about what is high or what is low. Furthermore, I know each individual’s capacity to act on those beliefs (the degree of clarity or relative lack of inner conflict), and with this knowledge, I am able to determine how the actions of each of these individuals will affect price movement in its collective form a second, a minute, an hour, a day, or a week from now.” Looking at the process of convincing yourself that you’re right from this perspective, it seems a bit absurd, doesn’t it?
如果這聽起來熟悉，請想想：當你確信自己是對的時候，你就會對自己說：“我知道誰在市場裏麵，我知道誰會進場。我知道他們認為的點位高低各是多少。而且，我知道每個人都是根據一定的信念交易的（清晰程度或內部衝突減少的程度），根據這些知識，我就能知道每秒、每分、每小時、每天或每周每個人的行為形成的整體行為會如何影響價格的波動。”看看你讓自己確信的過程，是不是有點荒謬？
For the traders who have learned to think in probabilities, there is no dilemma. Predefining the risk doesn’t pose a problem for these traders because they don’t trade from a right or wrong perspective. They have learned that trading doesn’t have anything to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade. As a result, they don’t perceive the risks of trading in the same way the typical trader does.
對於已經了解了概率的交易者，他們不會經曆兩難的處境。因為他們不是根據對的或錯的認知才交易的，所以對他們來說提前衡量風險不是問題。他們已經明白了交易和單筆交易的對錯無關。結果就是，他們和典型的交易者對風險的看法不同。
Any of the best traders (the probability thinkers) could have just as much negative energy surrounding what it means to be wrong as the typical trader. But as long as they legitimately define trading as a probability game, their emotional responses to the outcome of any particular trade are equivalent to how the typical trader would feel about flipping a coin, calling heads, and seeing the coin come up tails. A wrong call, but for most people being wrong about predicting the flip of a coin would not tap them into the accumulated pain of every other time in their lives they had been wrong.
最優秀的交易者（思考概率的人）和典型的交易者一樣會被消極能力包圍。但是一旦他們認為交易是概率的遊戲，他們交易時的情緒反應就和猜硬幣的正反麵時猜錯了一樣。對於大部分人來說，猜錯了硬幣的正反麵不會像生活中的錯誤一樣累積成痛苦。
Why? Most people know that the outcome of a coin toss is random. If you believe the outcome is random, then you naturally expect a random outcome. Randomness implies at least some degree of uncertainty. So when we believe in a random outcome, there is an implied acceptance that we don’t know what that outcome will be. When we accept in advance of an event that we don’t know how it will turn out, that acceptance has the effect of keeping our expectations neutral and open-ended.
為什麽不會變成痛苦呢？因為大部分人都知道擲硬幣的結果是隨機的。如果你相信是隨機的，那麽你就知道結果是隨機的。隨機意味著一定程度的不確定性。所以，當我們相信是隨機的，那就說明我們不知道結果是什麽。一旦我們接受了我們不知道一件事的結果，這種接受就會讓我們保持中性和開放的期望。
Now we’re getting down to the very core of what ails the typical trader. Any expectation about the markets behavior that is specific, well-defined, or rigid - instead of being neutral and open-ended - is unrealistic and potentially damaging. I define an unrealistic expectation as one that does not correspond with the possibilities available from the market’s perspective. If each moment in the market is unique, and anything is possible, then any expectation that does not reflect these boundary-less characteristics is unrealistic.
現在我們談到了重點，讓典型的交易者頭痛的是什麽。任何對市場的預期，如果是確切的、明確的或不變的——不是中性和開放的——都是不現實的，有可能是毀壞性的。我把不現實的期望定義為不符合市場的可能性。如果市場中的任意時刻都是獨特的，且任何事都有可能發生，那麽沒有反應這些特點的期望就是不現實的。
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
管理期望
The potential damage caused by holding unrealistic expectations comes from how it affects the way we perceive information. Expectations are mental representations of what some future moment will look, sound, taste, smell, or feel like. Expectations come from what we know. This makes sense, because we can’t expect something that we have no knowledge or awareness of. What we know is synonymous with what we have learned to believe about the ways in which the external environment can express itself. What we believe is our own personal version of the truth. When we expect something, we are projecting out into the future what we believe to be true. We are expecting the outside environment a minute, an hour, a day, a week, or a month from now to be the way we have represented it in our minds.
持有不現實的期望會影響我們認知信息的方法，會對我們造成傷害。期望就是對未來的心理感覺，包括看到的、聽到的、感覺到的、聞到的或感受到的。期望來自我們的已知事物。這是有意義的，因為我們不可能根據我們不知道的東西來期待什麽結果。我們知道的東西和外部環境表達自己的方式是一樣的。我們相信的東西就是我們個人對事實的看法。當我們期待什麽東西時，我們預期的是未來的事實。我們認為外部環境從現在開始的每分鍾、每小時、每天、每周、每月都是我們想的那樣。
We have to be careful about what we project out into the future, because nothing else has the potential to create more unhappiness and emotional misery than an unfulfilled expectation. When things happen exactly as you expect them to, how do you feel? The response is generally wonderful (including feelings like happiness, joy, satisfaction, and a greater sense of well-being), unless, of course, you were expecting something dreadful and it manifested itself. Conversely, how do you feel when your expectations are not fulfilled? The universal response is emotional pain. Everyone experiences some degree of anger, resentment, despair, regret, disappointment, dissatisfaction, or betrayal when the environment doesn’t turn out to be exactly as we expected it to be (unless, of course, we are completely surprised by something much better than we imagined).
對自己的期望要小心，因為當期望落空時，你是很痛苦的。當你的期望實現了，你有什麽感覺？你的反應將是非常好的（包括幸福、快樂、滿足、舒適），除非你期待的是可怕的事。相反，如果你的期望落空，你有什麽感覺？普遍的反應就是情緒上的痛苦。當環境產生的結果不是我們想的那樣時，每個人都體會過一定程度的憤怒、怨恨、絕望、後悔、失望、不滿或背叛感覺（除非事實比想象的還要好，讓我們感到吃驚）。
Here’s where we run into problems. Because our expectations come from what we know, when we decide or believe that we know something, we naturally expect to be right. At that point, we’re no longer in a neutral or open state of mind, and it’s not difficult to understand why. If we’re going to feel great if the market does what we expect it to do, or feel horrible if it doesn’t, then we’re not exactly neutral or open-minded. Quite the contrary, the force of the belief behind the expectation will cause us to perceive market information in a way that confirms what we expect (we naturally like feeling good); and our pain-avoidance mechanisms will shield us from information that doesn’t confirm what we expect (to keep us from feeling bad).
我們是這樣遇到問題的。因為我們的期望來自我們知道的事物，當我們決定或相信我們知道一些事的時候，我們自然希望自己是對的。此時，我們的思想狀態不再是中性的或開放的，很難明白為什麽會這樣。如果市場如我所願，我們感到不錯；或者是市場沒有如我所願，我們則感覺不好，那麽我們的思想就不是中性的或開放的。相反，期望後麵信念的力量會讓我們確信我們期待的東西（我們自然感覺很好），我們的痛苦回避係統會屏蔽我們不喜歡的信息（以免我們心情不好）。
As I’ve already indicated, our minds are designed to help us avoid pain, both physical and emotional. These pain-avoidance mechanisms exist at both conscious and subconscious levels. For example, if an object is coming toward your head, you react instinctively to get out of the way. Ducking does not require a conscious decision-making process. On the other hand, if you clearly see the object and have time to consider the alternatives, you may decide to catch the object, bat it away with your hand, or duck. These are examples of how we protect ourselves from physical pain.
正如我在前麵講過的，我們的思想天生就喜歡回避痛苦，在肉體上和情緒上都是這樣。無論是有意識的，還是無意識的，這種痛苦回避係統都存在。比如，如果有一個物體向你的頭部飛來，你會本能地讓開。躲避並不需要有意識的思考過程。另一方麵，如果你能明顯地看見物體，而且你有時間思考變通的方法，你也許會決定抓住這個物體，用手擋開它或躲避它。這就是我們避免身體遭受痛苦的例子。
Protecting ourselves from emotional or mental pain works in the same way, except that we are now protecting ourselves from information. For example, the market expresses information about itself and its potential to move in a particular direction. If there’s a difference between what we want or expect and what the market is offering or making available, then our pain-avoidance mechanisms kick in to compensate for the differences. As with physical pain, these mechanisms operate at both the conscious and subconscious levels.
我們避免自己遭受情緒和心理痛苦的道理是一樣的，除非我們在回避一些信息。比如，市場用自己的方式表達信息，以說明它可能波動的方向。如果市場提供的東西和我們想要的或期待的不一樣，那麽我們的痛苦回避係統就會起作用以補償這種差別。和身體上的痛苦一樣，無論是有意識的，還是潛意識的，這個係統都會起作用。
To protect ourselves from painful information at the conscious level, we rationalize, justify, make excuses, willfully gather information that will neutralize the significance of the conflicting information, get angry (to ward off the conflicting information), or just plain lie to ourselves.
為了在意識層次避免痛苦的信息，我們就會辯解、辯護、找借口，還自己收集信息以抵消衝突的信息，甚至發怒（這樣可以回避衝突的信息），或對自己撒謊。
At the subconscious level, the pain-avoidance process is much more subtle and mysterious. At this level, our minds may block our ability to see other alternatives, even though in other circumstances we would be able to perceive them. Now, because they are in conflict with what we want or expect, our pain-avoidance mechanisms can make them disappear (as if they didn’t exist). To illustrate this phenomenon, the best example is one I have already given you: We are in a trade where the market is moving against us. In fact, the market has established a trend in the opposite direction to what we want or expect. Ordinarily, we would have no problem identifying or perceiving this pattern if it weren’t for the fact that the market was moving against our position. But the pattern loses its significance (becomes invisible) because we find it too painful to acknowledge.
在潛意識狀態下，回避痛苦的過程比較微妙和神奇。在潛意識狀態下，我們的思想會阻止我們看見其它的可能性；如果在其它情況下，我們本來是可以看見的。因為其它可能性和我們想要或期待的有衝突，我們的痛苦回避係統會讓它們消失掉（好像它們並不存在）。為了說明這個現象，最好的案例其實我已經告訴你了：我們交易時，市場在和我們作對。實際上，市場的趨勢和我們想要的或期待的相反。通常，如果市場和我們想要的或期待的一致，我們可以輕鬆地確認和看出這個模式。但是，因為我們很難接受不一致的現象，我們就覺得這個模式沒那麽重要了（慢慢消失了）。
To avoid the pain, we narrow our focus of attention and concentrate on information that keeps us out of pain, regardless of how insignificant or minute. In the meantime, the information that clearly indicates the presence of a trend and the opportunity to trade in the direction of that trend becomes invisible. The trend doesn’t disappear from physical reality, but our ability to perceive it does. Our pain-avoidance mechanisms block our ability to define and interpret what the market is doing as a trend.
為了避免痛苦，我們把焦點縮小，聚焦於沒有痛苦的信息，也不管這些信息的價值大小如何。同時，能夠清楚地指出有趨勢，指出順勢交易機會的信息則消失了。實際上趨勢並沒有消失，但是我們的認知能力讓它消失了。我們的痛苦回避係統阻止了我們定義和解讀市場趨勢的能力。
The trend will then stay invisible until the market either reverses in our favor or we are forced out of the trade because the pressure of losing too much money becomes unbearable. It’s not until we are either out of the trade or out of danger that the trend becomes apparent, as well as all the opportunities to make money by trading in the direction of the trend. This is a perfect example of 20-20 hindsight. All the distinctions that would otherwise be perceivable become perfectly clear, after the fact, when there is no longer anything for our minds to protect us from.
如果不是因為我們害怕虧損太多，被迫平倉，或者是趨勢反轉並開始對我們有利了，我們是看不見已經存在的趨勢的。隻有當我們平倉時，或沒有危險時，我們才能看清趨勢，同時還看到了所有的順勢交易賺錢的機會。這是典型的事後諸葛亮。當我們的思想不再為了保護我們而阻擋任何信息時，我們就能清晰地看見所有的特征。
We all have the potential to engage in self-protective pain-avoidance mechanisms, because they’re natural functions of the way our minds operate. There may be times when we are protecting ourselves from information that has the potential to bring up deep-seated emotional wounds or trauma that we’re just not ready to face, or don’t have the appropriate skills or resources to deal with. In these cases, our natural mechanisms are serving us well. But more often, our pain-avoidance mechanisms are just protecting us from information that would indicate that our expectations do not correspond with what is available from the environments perspective. This is where our pain-avoidance mechanisms do us a disservice, especially as traders.
我們都很容易陷入自我保護，回避痛苦的狀態，因為我們的思想天生就是這樣運作的。很多時候，對於可能嚴重傷害我們的信息，對於我們還沒有準備好去麵對的信息，對於我們不能處理的信息，我們就會采取回避的態度以保護自己。此時我們天生的係統能很好地保護我們。但很多時候，我們的痛苦回避係統隻是讓我們遠離不利於我們的信息，這樣的信息表明我們的期望和市場不一致。這是痛苦回避係統對我們的傷害，對交易者更是如此。
To understand this concept, ask yourself what exactly about market information is threatening. Is it threatening because the market actually expresses negatively charged information as an inherent characteristic of the way it exists? It may seem that way, but at the most fundamental level, what the market gives us to perceive are up-tics and down-tics or up-bars and down-bars. These up and down tics form patterns that represent edges. Now, are any of these tics or the patterns they form negatively charged? Again, it may certainly seem that way, but from the market’s perspective the information is neutral. Each up-tic, down-tic, or pattern is just information, telling us the market’s position. If any of this information had a negative charge as an inherent characteristic of the way it exists, then wouldn’t everyone exposed to it experience emotional pain?
要想搞懂這個概念，請問問你自己，市場信息的威脅是什麽。是不是說市場天生就充滿了消極的信息，所以市場有威脅？看起來好像是這樣的，但根本上市場提供給我們的就是幾個基點的上漲、幾個基點的下跌、上漲的k線，下跌的k線。這些上漲和下跌的模式代表了優勢。是不是所有的漲跌或這些模式都是消極的呢？同樣，看起來好像是這樣的，但從市場的角度來看，信息是中性的。每一個上漲的基點、每一個下跌的基點、每一個模式，它們隻是信息而已，這些信息能告訴我們市場的點位。如果有任何信息是消極的，那麽是不是每個人都要經曆情緒上的痛苦？
For example, if both you and I get hit on the head with a solid object, there probably wouldn’t be much difference in how we would feel. We’d both be in pain. Any part of our bodies coming into contact with a solid object with some degree of force will cause anyone with a normal nervous system to experience pain. We share the experience because our bodies are constructed in basically the same way. The pain is an automatic physiological response to the impact with a tangible object. Information in the form of words or gestures expressed by the environment, or up and down tics expressed by the market, can be just as painful as being hit with a solid object; but there’s an important difference between information and objects. Information is not tangible. Information doesn’t consist of atoms and molecules. To experience the potential effects of information, whether negative or positive, requires an interpretation.
比如，如果你我都被硬物擊中了頭部，那麽我們的感覺應該差不多，我們都有痛覺。任何人，隻要身體的任何部分碰到了有力的硬物，我們的神經係統都會感受到痛覺。我們都有痛覺，是因為我們的身體結構都是差不多的。當被實物碰撞時，痛覺是自動的心理反應。環境用語言或姿態表達的信息和市場用漲跌表達的信息都會讓人像被硬物擊中一樣，會造成痛覺；但是信息和物體有重大的區別。信息不是實物，信息不是由原子和分子組成。要想體會信息的作用，不管是積極的，還是消極的，都需要對它有解讀能力。
The interpretations we make are functions of our unique mental frameworks. Everyone’s mental framework is unique for two fundamental reasons. First, all of us were born with different genetically encoded behavior and personality characteristics that cause us to have different needs from one another. How positively or negatively and to what degree the environment responds to these needs creates experiences unique to each individual. Second, everyone is exposed to a variety of environmental forces. Some of these forces are similar from one individual to the next, but none are exactly the same.
我們的解讀來自我們獨特的心理結構。每個人的心理結構都是獨特的，有兩個基本的原因。第一個原因，我們出生時的基因不同，行為和個性也不同，導致我們的需求不同。對於這些需求，環境的反應有積極的或消極的，它們的影響程度對每個人都不同。第二個原因，每個人麵對的環境力量是多變的。有些力量差不多，但有些不完全一樣。
If you consider the number of possible combinations of genetically encoded personality characteristics we can be born with, in relation to the almost infinite variety of environmental forces we can encounter throughout our lives, all of which contribute to the construction of our mental framework, then it’s not difficult to see why there is no universal mental framework common to everyone. Unlike our bodies, which have a common molecular structure that experiences physical pain, there is no universal mind-set to assure us that we will share the potential negative or positive effects of information in the same way.
如果你考慮到每個人基因組合的多種可能性和這些可能性帶來的個性，還有我們此生經曆的無數種環境力量，所有這些都對我們的心理結構有影響，那麽我們就不難發現為什麽每個人的心理結構都不一樣。思想和我們的身體也不同，身體由普通的分子組成，能體會到痛覺；這個世界上沒有統一的思想，能保證我們用同樣的方式體會到同樣的積極或消極的信息效果。
For example, someone could be projecting insults at you, intending to cause you to feel emotional pain. From the environment’s perspective, this is negatively charged information. Will you experience the intended negative effects? Not necessarily! You have to be able to interpret the information as negative to experience it as negative. What if this person is insulting you in a language you don’t understand, or is using words you don’t know the meaning of? Would you feel the intended pain? Not until you built a framework to define and understand the words in a derogatory way. Even then, we can’t assume that what you’d feel would correspond to the intent behind the insult. You could have a framework to perceive the negative intent, but instead of feeling pain, you might experience a perverse type of pleasure. I’ve encountered many people who, simply for their own amusement, like to get people riled up with negative emotions. If they happen to be insulted in the process, it creates a sense of joy because then they know how successful they’ve been.
比如，有人想侮辱你，想讓你覺得情緒痛苦。從環境的角度來說，這是消極的信息。你會感受到這個消極的影響嗎？不一定！你必須有能力解讀這個信息，並認為是消極的，你才會體會到它的消極效果。如果一個人用你不懂的語言，或者是你不明白的詞匯侮辱你，結果會如何？你能感受到痛苦嗎？如果你不理解這個詞匯侮辱人的含義，你是不會感到痛苦的。即使如此，我們也不能說你的感受和侮辱你的意圖是對應的。你也許會覺得那是不好的企圖，但你並不痛苦，你也許還有點高興。我見過很多人，為了自己的快樂而讓別人充滿了消極的情緒。如果他們在這個過程中間被侮辱了，他們會覺得很高興，因為他們知道自己成功了。
A person expressing genuine love is projecting positively charged information into the environment. Let’s say the intent behind the expression of these positive feelings is to convey affection, endearment, and friendship. Are there any assurances that the person or persons this positively charged information is being projected toward will interpret and experience it as such? No, there aren’t. A person with a very low sense of self-esteem, or someone who experienced a great deal of hurt and disappointment in relationships, will often misinterpret an expression of genuine love as something else. In the case of a person with low self-esteem, if he doesn’t believe he deserves to be loved in such a way, he will find it difficult, if not impossible, to interpret what he is being offered as genuine or real. In the second case, where one has a significant backlog of hurt and disappointment in relationships, a person could easily come to believe that a genuine expression of love is extremely rare, if not non-existent, and would probably interpret the situation either as someone wanting something or trying to take advantage of him in some way.
一個表達真誠愛意的人是在向環境傳遞積極的信息。我們可以說這些表達是為了傳遞愛心、鍾愛和友誼。那麽能不能保證這些信息被人們正確地解讀和感受到？不能，他們感受不到。一個不太有自尊的人，或者在友情方麵受過傷害的人，通常會錯誤地理解別人的愛意。對於不太有自尊的人來說，如果他覺得自己不值得別人的愛，那麽他就會很難去相信別人愛意的真假。第二種情況，對於感情受傷的，或對友誼失望的人，他會覺得真正的愛太少了，對於別人的愛意，他會覺得是對方想要什麽，或者是想占他的便宜。
I’m sure that I don’t have to go on and on, sighting examples of all the possible ways there are to misinterpret what someone is trying to communicate to us or how what we express to someone can be misconstrued and experienced in ways completely unintended by us. The point that I am making is that each individual will define, interpret, and consequently experience whatever information he is exposed to in his own unique way. There’s no standardized way to experience what the environment may be offering - whether it’s positive, neutral, or negative information - simply because there is no standardized mental framework in which to perceive information.
別人想和我們溝通，結果被我們誤解了；我們傳達給別人的意思結果又被別人誤解了，我相信沒有必要再舉例子說明這些情況了。我想說的重點是，每個人用自己獨特的方式定義、解讀和體驗所有的信息。沒有標準的方式去體驗環境提供的信息——無論是不是積極的、中性的、或消極的信息——因為我們的心理結構不是標準的，所以對信息的解讀不同。
Consider that, as traders, the market offers us something to perceive at each moment. In a sense, you could say that the market is communicating with us. If we start out with the premise that the market does not generate negatively charged information as an inherent characteristic of the way it exists, we can then ask, and answer, the question, “What causes information to take on a negative quality?” In other words, where exactly does the threat of pain come from?
作為交易者，市場也隨時在提供類似的東西。從某種程度上你可以說市場在和我們溝通。如果一開始就認為市場天生不會產生消極的信息，我們可以自問自答地問：“是什麽讓信息變成了消極的？”換句話說，痛苦的威脅究竟來自哪裏？
If it’s not coming from the market, then it has to be coming from the way we define and interpret the available information. Defining and interpreting information is a function of what we assume we know or what we believe to be true. If what we know or believe is in fact true - and we wouldn’t believe it if it weren’t - then when we project our beliefs out into some future moment as an expectation, we naturally expect to be right.
如果不是來自市場，那麽就來自我們定義和解讀信息的方式。我們以為我們定義和解讀信息的方式是對的。如果我們知道的或相信的是事實——如果不是事實，我們就不會相信——那麽當我們把自己的信念投射到未來時，我們自然希望自己的期望是對的。
When we expect to be right, any information that doesn’t confirm our version of the truth automatically becomes threatening. Any information that has the potential to be threatening also has the potential to be blocked, distorted, or diminished in significance by our pain-avoidance mechanisms. It’s this particular characteristic of the way our minds function that can really do us a disservice. As traders, we can’t afford to let our pain-avoidance mechanisms cut us off from what the market is communicating to us about what is available in the way of the next opportunity to get in, get out, add to, or subtract from a position, just because it’s doing something that we don’t want or expect.
當我們期待正確時，任何不符的信息自動變成了威脅。我們的痛苦回避係統有可能會阻止、曲解或消滅有威脅的信息。這是我們思想的功能，這個功能會害了我們。作為交易者，我們不能因為有些東西是自己不想要或不希望的，就讓痛苦回避係統把我們和市場分開，掐斷了市場和我們的溝通，市場也許會告訴我們進場、出場、加倉、平倉等機會的。
For example, when you’re watching a market (one you rarely, if ever, trade in) with no intention of doing anything, do any of the up or down tics cause you to feel angry, disappointed, frustrated, disillusioned, or betrayed in any way? No! The reason is that there’s nothing at stake. You’re simply observing information that tells you where the market is at that moment. If the up and down tics that you’re watching form into some sort of behavior pattern you’ve learned to identify, don’t you readily recognize and acknowledge the pattern? Yes, for the same reason: There’s nothing at stake.
比如，當你看著某個市場（你一般不會交易的市場），沒有任何想法時，市場的漲跌會不會讓你感到憤怒、失望、受挫、大失所望或背叛？不會！原因是你沒有（下注）交易。你隻是在觀察市場此刻的信息。如果市場的漲跌，形成的模式是你認識的，你會認出這個模式嗎？是的，理由是同樣的：你沒有（下注）交易。
There is nothing at stake because there’s no expectation. You haven’t projected what you believe, assume, or think you know about that market into some future moment. As a result, there’s nothing to be either right about or wrong about, so the information has no potential to take on a threatening or negatively charged quality. With no particular expectation, you haven’t placed any boundaries on how the market can express itself. Without any mental boundaries, you will be making yourself available to perceive everything you’ve learned about the nature of the ways in which the market moves. There’s nothing for your pain-avoidance mechanisms to exclude, distort, or diminish from your awareness in order to protect you.
你沒有（下注）交易是因為你沒有期望。你對市場的信念、假設和想法並沒有投射到未來。結果是，你看見的東西沒有什麽對錯，所以信息也沒有潛在的威脅或消極性質。因為你沒有特別的期望，所以你對市場的表達行為沒有任何限製。沒有心理限製，你就會通過自己學過的知識看見市場的方方麵麵。沒有必要讓痛苦回避係統來去除、曲解或消滅你的意識以保護你。
In my workshops, I always ask participants to resolve the following primary trading paradox: In what way does a trader have to learn how to be rigid and flexible at the same time? The answer is: We have to be rigid in our rules and flexible in our expectations. We need to be rigid in our rules so that we gain a sense of self-trust that can, and will always, protect us in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries. We need to be flexible in our expectations so we can perceive, with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity, what the market is communicating to us from its perspective. At this point, it probably goes without saying that the typical trader does just the opposite: He is flexible in his rules and rigid in his expectations. Interestingly enough, the more rigid the expectation, the more he has to either bend, violate, or break his rules in order to accommodate his unwillingness to give up what he wants in favor of what the market is offering.
在我的工作室，我總是要求參與者解決這個基本的矛盾：交易者如何能同時做到既死板又靈活？答案是：對原則死板，對期望靈活。我們對原則死板，這樣我們就能得到自信，這樣可以免受沒有限製的環境影響。我們對期望靈活，我們就可以清晰地客觀地看見市場在和我們溝通什麽。從這個角度來說，典型的交易者正好相反：他對原則靈活，對期望死板。有趣的是，對期望越死板，越需要歪曲、違反或打破自己的原則，因為在麵對市場時，他們實在不想放棄自己想要的東西。
ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK
消滅情緒風險
To eliminate the emotional risk of trading, you have to neutralize your expectations about what the market will or will not do at any given moment or in any given situation. You can do this by being willing to think from the markets perspective. Remember, the market is always communicating in probabilities. At the collective level, your edge may look perfect in every respect; but at the individual level, every trader who has the potential to act as a force on price movement can negate the positive outcome of that edge.
為了消滅交易時的情緒風險，你必須在任何狀況下，任意時刻讓你對市場的期望中性化。你可以從市場的角度來思考。記住，市場和你溝通的總是概率。總體來說，你的優勢也許看起來很完美；但是從個人的角度來說，每個交易者的行為都有可能影響價格，他們的行為會改變這個優勢的結果。
To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mind-set that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment. A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.
為了用概率思考，你必須創造一種心理結構或思維，這種思維和市場概率環境的原則是一致的。交易方麵關於概率的思想包含以下5個基本事實。
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
1. 任何事都會發生。
2. 你不必知道下一步會如何也能賺錢。
3. 對於任何定義優勢的變數，贏虧之間的分布都是隨機的。
4. 優勢就是某件事發生的概率比另外一件事發生的概率高。
5. 任意時刻，市場都是獨特的。
Keep in mind that your potential to experience emotional pain comes from the way you define and interpret the information you’re exposed to. When you adopt these five truths, your expectations will always be in line with the psychological realities of the market environment. With the appropriate expectations, you will eliminate your potential to define and interpret market information as either painful or threatening, and you thereby effectively neutralize the emotional risk of trading.
請記住，因為你定義和解讀信息的方式不同，你可能會經曆情緒痛苦。一旦你接受了這5個事實，你對市場環境的期望總是會和心理實際對應的。有了合適的期望，你就不會把市場定義解讀為痛苦的或威脅的，你也會有效地中和交易的情緒風險。
The idea is to create a carefree state of mind that completely accepts the fact that there are always unknown forces operating in the market. When you make these truths a fully functional part of your belief system, the rational part of your mind will defend these truths in the same way it defends any other belief you hold about the nature of trading. This means that, at least at the rational level, your mind will automatically defend against the idea or assumption that you can know for sure what will happen next. It’s a contradiction to believe that each trade is a unique event with an uncertain outcome and random in relationship to any other trade made in the past; and at the same time to believe you know for sure what will happen next and to expect to be right.
要想建立完全開放的思想，你就要要完全接受市場中總是有未知的力量。如果你完全把這些事實當作你信念係統的一部分，你的理性思維就會像你守衛其它信念一樣守衛這些事實。這意味著，至少在理性的層次，你的思維會自動地阻止一些想法或假設，這些想法和假設就是你以為你知道下一步會如何。相信每筆交易都是獨特的，結果是不確定的，是隨機的；同時又要相信你知道下一步會如何，你期望自己是正確的，這是很矛盾的。
If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique. If the moment isn’t unique, then everything is known or knowable; that is, there’s nothing not to know. However, the moment you stop factoring in what you don’t or can’t know about the situation instead of being available to perceive what the market is offering, you make yourself susceptible to all of the typical trading errors.
如果你真的相信不確定的結果，那麽你就應該期待任何事都會發生。否則，如果你的思想以為你知道確定的結果，你就不會考慮所有的未知變數。你的思維不會讓你兩者兼備的。如果你認為你知道某些東西，那麽這個時刻就再也不是獨特的了。如果這個時刻不是獨特的，那麽任何事都能被知道，也就是說，沒有什麽不能知道的。然而，如果你認為你知道，你就沒有把未知的因素考慮進來，你就看不見市場提供的東西，你就可能犯所有典型的交易錯誤。
For example, if you really believed in an uncertain outcome, would you ever consider putting on a trade without defining your risk in advance? Would you ever hesitate to cut a loss, if you really believed you didn’t know? What about trading errors like jumping the gun? How could you anticipate a signal that hasn’t yet manifested itself in the market, if you weren’t convinced that you were going to miss out?
比如，如果你真的相信不確定的結果，你會在交易前不衡量風險嗎？如果你真的相信你不知道，你在止損時會猶豫嗎？提前進場或出場是怎麽回事？如果你不確定你會錯過機會，你如何知道一個信號沒有反映市場？
Why would you ever let a winning trade turn into a loser, or not have a systematic way of taking profits, if you weren’t convinced the market was going your way indefinitely? Why would you hesitate to take a trade or not put it on at all, unless you were convinced that it was a loser when the market was at your original entry point? Why would you break your money management rules by trading too large a position relative to your equity or emotional tolerance to sustain a loss, if you weren’t positive that you had a sure thing?
如果你不確信市場永遠對你有利，為何你把贏利變成了虧損，為何不用係統方法兌現利潤？當市場再次回到你的進場點，你知道肯定會虧錢，你知道交易；除此之外，為何你在交易時憂鬱，甚至不敢交易？如果你不能肯定你一定賺錢，為何你要違反資金管理原則和心理上隻能接受的最大虧損限製去建立過大的倉位？
Finally, if you really believed in a random distribution between wins and losses, could you ever feel betrayed by the market? If you flipped a coin and guessed right, you wouldn’t necessarily expect to be right on the next flip simply because you were right on the last. Nor would you expect to be wrong on the next flip if you were wrong on the last. Because you believe in a random distribution between the sequence of heads and tails, your expectations would be perfectly aligned with the reality of the situation. You would certainly like to be right, and if you were that would be great, but if you were wrong then you would not feel betrayed by the flip, because you know and accept that there are unknown variables at work that affect the outcome. Unknown means “not something your rational thinking process can take into consideration in advance of the flip” except to fully accept that you don’t know. As a result, there is little, if any, potential to experience the kind of emotional pain that wells up when you feel betrayed.
最後，如果你真的相信贏和虧的分布是隨機的，你是否會覺得市場背叛了你？如果你擲硬幣並猜對了，你不會因為你這次猜對了就希望自己下次還能猜對；你也不會因為這次猜錯了，就希望下次還會猜錯。因為你知道硬幣的正反麵是隨機分布的，你的期望和現實結果是一致的。你當然希望自己是對的，如果你對了，當然最好；如果你錯了，你不會感覺背叛的，因為你知道並接受了未知的變數會影響結果。未知意味著：“你的理性思考無法提前想到硬幣的正反麵”，除非你完全承認你不知道。結果是，你不太會感受到情緒痛苦，更不會上升到感覺背叛的地步。
As a trader, when you’re expecting a random outcome, you will always be at least a little surprised at whatever the market does - even if it conforms exactly to your definition of an edge and you end up with a winning trade. However expecting a random outcome doesn’t mean that you can’t use your full reasoning and analytical abilities to project an outcome, or that you can’t guess what’s going to happen next, or have a hunch or feeling about it, because you can. Furthermore, you can be right in each instance. You just can’t expect to be right. And if you are right, you can’t expect that whatever you did that worked the last time will work again the next time, even though the situation may look, sound, or feel exactly the same.
作為交易者，如果你期待的是隨機的結果，即使你對優勢的定義是對的，你的倉位最終是賺錢的——市場行為總是讓你吃驚。然而，期待隨機的結果並不代表你不能利用你的推理分析能力去預測結果，也不代表你不能猜測下一步會如何，也不代表你不能感覺到下一步會如何，因為你可以這麽做。另外，你還可以每次都正確，隻是你不能期待每次都正確。如果你是正確的，你不能期待這次正確了，下次一定正確，即使狀況看起來、聽起來或感覺起來都是一樣的。
Anything that you are perceiving “now” in the market will never be exactly the same as some previous experience that exists in your mental environment. But that doesn’t mean that your mind (as a natural characteristic of the way it functions) won’t try to make the two identical. There will be similarities between the “now moment” and something that you know from the past, but those similarities only give you something to work with by putting the odds of success in your favor. If you approach trading from the perspective that you don’t know what will happen next, you will circumvent your mind’s natural inclination to make the “now moment” identical to some earlier experience. As unnatural as it seems to do so, you can’t let some previous experience (either negative or extremely positive) dictate your state of mind. If you do, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to perceive what the market is communicating from its perspective.
在你的心理環境中，任何“現在”的市場都和以前的體驗不同。但這不是說你的思維不會把它們等同起來（這是思維的自然特征）。“現在”和過去總有點相似之處，但這些相似之處隻是增加你成功的概率。如果你交易時明白自己並不知道下一步會如何，你就要避免自己的思維自然地把“現在”和過去的體驗等同起來。你不能讓以前的體驗指揮你的思想（無論是積極的，還是消極的），這是不正常的。如果你這麽做，就很難解讀市場要和你溝通的內容。
When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen. Regardless of how good I think my edge is, I expect nothing more than for the market to move or to express itself in some way. However, there are some things that I do know for sure. I know that based on the markets past behavior, the odds of it moving in the direction of my trade are good or acceptable, at least in relationship to how much I am willing to spend to find out if it does.
當我交易時，我所期待的全部就是發生點什麽。無論我的優勢多麽大，我的期望隻是讓市場做點什麽，我不會多想的。然而，有些事我是能確信的。我知道，根據市場過去的行為，對我有利的波動概率大，我可以接受我的交易，至少我願意花點小錢去看看我是不是對的。
I also know before getting into a trade how much I am willing to let the market move against my position. There is always a point at which the odds of success are greatly diminished in relation to the profit potential. At that point, it’s not worth spending any more money to find out if the trade is going to work. If the market reaches that point, I know without any doubt, hesitation, or internal conflict that I will exit the trade. The loss doesn’t create any emotional damage, because I don’t interpret the experience negatively. To me, losses are simply the cost of doing business or the amount of money I need to spend to make myself available for the winning trades. If, on the other hand, the trade turns out to be a winner, in most cases I know for sure at what point I am going to take my profits. (If I don’t know for sure, I certainly have a very good idea.)
我同樣知道在建倉前我可以接受多少虧損。總是有一個點位，在這個點位，利潤減少，成功的概率降低。在這個點位，沒有必要再花錢去確認交易結果。如果市場到達這個點位，我將不再懷疑、猶豫、或內心衝突，我將會平倉。虧損不會讓我情緒受傷，因為我不把虧損看作是消極的。對我來說，虧損就是做生意的成本，或者是交易成功前花出去的錢。如果相反，交易贏利了，我知道在哪裏兌現利潤（如果我不肯定，那麽我當然有更好的主意）。
The best traders are in the “now moment” because there’s no stress. There’s no stress because there’s nothing at risk other than the amount of money they are willing to spend on a trade. They are not trying to be right or trying to avoid being wrong; neither are they trying to prove anything. If and when the market tells them that their edges aren’t working or that it’s time to take profits, their minds do nothing to block this information. They completely accept what the market is offering them, and they wait for the next edge.
最優秀的交易者把握“現在”，因為沒有壓力。沒有壓力是因為他們知道自己要虧多少。他們不會為了正確或避免犯錯，他們也不是為了證明什麽。如果市場告訴他們優勢不在了或應該兌現利潤了，他們的思維不會阻止這樣的信息。他們完全接受這就是市場給他們的，他們等待下一個優勢。
CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS
第08章 和你的信念一起工作
Now the task before you is to properly integrate the five fundamental truths presented in Chapter 7 in your mental environment at a functional level. To help you do that, we will take an in-depth look at beliefs - their nature, properties, and characteristics. However, before we do that I will review and organize the major concepts presented thus far into a much clearer and more practical framework. What you learn from this and the next two chapters will form the foundation for understanding everything you need to do to achieve your goals as a trader.
現在你的任務就是把第07章的5個事實融於你的心理環境，讓它們發揮作用。為了幫助你做到這點，我們可以深入看看你的信念——它們的自然屬性、性質、特點。然而，在這之前，我想把這些主要的概念用清晰實用的結構組織起來。本章和隨後兩章會為你成為交易者打好基礎。
DEFINING THE PROBLEM
給問題下定義
At the most fundamental level, the market is simply a series of up and down tics that form patterns. Technical analysis defines these patterns as edges. Any particular pattern defined as an edge is simply an indication that there is a higher probability that the market will move in one direction over the other. However, there is a major mental paradox here because a pattern implies consistency, or, at least, a consistent outcome. But the reality is each pattern is a unique occurrence. They may look (or measure) exactly the same from one occurrence to the next, but the similarities are only on the surface. The underlying force behind each pattern is traders, and the traders who contribute to the formation of one pattern are always different from the traders who contribute to the next; so the outcome of each pattern is random relative to one another. Our minds have an inherent design characteristic (the association mechanism) that can make this paradox difficult to deal with.
從最基本的角度來看，市場的漲漲跌跌形成模式。技術分析把這些模式定義為優勢。特定的模式說明了市場很可能往某個方向走。然而，模式認為結果是持續一致的，這是一個心理上的似是而非。實際上每個模式都是獨特的。也許它們看起來是一樣的（或者計算出來也是一樣的），但這種相似隻是表麵的。每個模式下麵都有交易者，每個模式下麵的交易者都不同，所以每個模式的結果也不同。我們思維天生的特征（聯想機製）讓我們無法麵對這個矛盾。
Now these edges, or the patterns they represent, flow by in every time frame, making the market a never-ending stream of opportunities to get in, get out (scratch a trade), take profits, cut losses, or add to or detract from a position. In other words, from the market’s perspective, each moment presents each one of us traders with the opportunity to do something on our own behalf.
優勢或模式在任何時間框架裏流逝，讓市場變得像沒有止境的河流，裏麵有很多機會，包括進場、出場（平倉）、兌現利潤、止損、加倉，減倉。換句話說，從市場的角度來看，任意時刻都有交易者認為是個機會，該為自己做點什麽。
What prevents us from perceiving each “now moment” as an opportunity to do something for ourselves or to act appropriately even when we do? Our fears! What is the source of our fears? We know its not the market, because from the market’s perspective, the up and down tics and the patterns they create are neither positively or negatively charged. As a result, the up and down tics themselves have no capacity to cause us to enter into any particular state of mind (negative or positive), lose our objectivity, make errors, or take us out of the opportunity flow.
當我們看見“現在”的機會，是什麽在阻止我們行動呢？我們的恐懼！什麽是恐懼的根源？我們知道市場不是根源，因為從市場的角度來說，上下波動以及波動造成的模式要麽是積極的，要麽是消極的，因此上下波動不會導致我們進入一種思想狀態（積極的或消極的）、失去客觀、犯錯，或錯失機會。
If it’s not the market that causes us to experience a negatively charged state of mind, then what does cause it? The way we define and interpret the information we perceive. If that’s the case, then what determines what we perceive and how we define and interpret that information? What we believe or what we assume to be true. Our beliefs working in conjunction with the association and pain-avoidance mechanisms act as a force on our five senses, causing us to perceive, define, and interpret market information in a way that is consistent with what we expect. What we expect is synonymous with what we believe or assume to be true. Expectations are beliefs projected into some future moment.
如果不是市場讓我們體驗到消極的思想，那麽是什麽引起的呢？是我們定義和解讀信息的方式。如果是這樣，那麽是什麽決定我們認知的東西呢，我們是如何定義和解讀信息的呢？是我們相信的或設想的真實的東西。我們的信念同時和聯想，痛苦避免係統一起工作，成為影響我們五官的力量，導致我們認知、定義和解讀市場信息時是一致的。我們期待的是我們相信或設想是真的東西。期待就是把信念投射到未來。
Each moment from the market’s perspective is unique; but if the information being generated by the market is similar in quality, properties, or characteristic to something that is already in our minds, the two sets of information (outside and inside) automatically become linked. When this connection is made, it triggers a state of mind (confidence, euphoria, fear, terror, disappointment, regret, betrayal, etc.) that corresponds to whatever belief, assumption, or memory the outside information was linked. This makes it seem as if what is outside is exactly the same as whatever is already inside of us.
從市場的角度來說，每個時刻都是獨特的，但是，如果市場產生的信息在特質上、屬性上或特征上都和我們思維中的相似，那麽這兩套信息（外部的和內部的）就聯係起來了。當聯係上以後，它觸動了我們的某種思想狀態（自信、過度興奮、恐懼、害怕、失望、後悔、背叛等等），這些思想和信念、想象或記憶等外部信息相聯係。這看起來似乎外部的和我們內部的東西都是一樣的。
It’s our state of mind that makes the truth of whatever we’re perceiving outside of us (in the market) seem indisputable and beyond question. Our state of mind is always the absolute truth. If I feel confident, then I am confident. If I feel afraid, then I am afraid. We can’t dispute the quality of energy flowing through our mind and body at any given moment. And because I know as an indisputable fact how I feel, you could say that I also know the truth of what I’m perceiving outside of me in the same moment. The problem is that how we feel is always the absolute truth, but the beliefs that triggered our state of mind or feeling may or may not be true relative to the possibilities that exist in the market at any given moment.
是我們的思想狀態讓我們認識的事實變得不容置疑。我們的思想狀態總是對的。如果我覺得自信，那麽我就自信。如果我覺得害怕，那麽我就害怕。我們無法和流過我們思想和身體的能量的性質做任何爭論。因為我知道我是如何感覺的，這是不容置疑的事實，你可以說我也知道我對外部事實的認知。問題是，我們的感覺總是絕對的事實，但是觸動我們思想或感覺的信念也許和市場的可能性是一致的，也許不一致。
Recall the example of the boy and the dog. The boy “knew” for an absolute fact that each dog he encountered after the first was threatening, because of the way he felt when one came into his field of awareness. These other dogs did not cause his fear; his negatively charged memory working in conjunction with the association and his pain-avoidance mechanism caused his fear. He experienced his own version of the truth, although that did not correspond with the possibilities that existed from the environment’s perspective. His belief about the nature of dogs was limited relative to the possible characteristics and traits expressed by dogs. Yet the state of mind he experienced every time he encountered a dog caused him to believe thats he “knew” exactly what to expect from them.
再回憶一下小孩和狗的例子。小孩“知道”自從接觸第一隻狗以後，每隻狗都是有威脅的，這是絕對的事實，因為這是他的意識感覺。其它狗並沒有引起他的恐懼，他的消極的記憶和痛苦回避係統一起工作，讓他害怕。他體驗的真實是他自己的版本，他並沒有從環境的角度來思考其它可能性。他對狗的信念局限於狗的特點和特征。每次他和狗的接觸都會讓他的思維相信他“了解”狗。
This same process causes us to believe that we “know” exactly what to expect from die market, when the reality is there are always unknown forces operating at every moment. The trouble is, the instant we think we “know” what to expect, we simultaneously stop taking all the unknown forces and die various possibilities created by those forces into consideration. The unknown forces are other traders waiting to enter or exit trades, based on their beliefs about the future. In other words, we really can’t know exactly what to expect from the market, until we can read the minds of all the traders who have the potential to act as a force on price movement. Not a very likely possibility.
同樣的過程讓我們相信我們“了解”市場，事實是市場裏麵總是有未知力量在運作。問題是，當我們以為我們“知道”期待的結果是什麽時，我們同時就停止了思考，思考未知力量和它們造成的各種可能性。其他交易者根據自己對未來的信念，準備進場，出場，他們就是未知的力量。換句話說，我們真的不知道對市場有什麽期待，除非我們能解讀所有交易者的思想。這是不太可能的。
As traders, we can’t afford to indulge ourselves in any form of “I know what to expect from the market.” We can “know” exactly what an edge looks, sounds, or feels like, and we can “know” exactly how much we need to risk to find out if that edge is going to work. We can “know” that we have a specific plan as to how we are going to take profits if a trade works. But that’s it! If what we think we know starts expanding to what the market is going to do, we’re in trouble. And all that’s required to put us into a negatively charged, “I know what to expect from the market” state of mind is for any belief, memory, or attitude to cause us to interpret the up and down tics or any market information as anything but an opportunity to do something on our own behalf.
作為交易者，我們不能沉迷於“我知道市場會如何。”我們可以“知道”優勢看起來如何，聽起來如何，感覺如何；我們可以“知道”我們可以承受多少風險，以確認優勢是否有效；我們可以“知道”在贏利時如何用具體的計劃兌現利潤。但僅僅如此而已！如果我們把我們知道的東西運用到市場中，我們就有麻煩了。 “我知道市場會如何”，這樣的消極思想隻是讓我們的信念、記憶或態度去解讀市場的漲跌和任何市場信息，以讓我們找到機會為自己做點什麽。
DEFINING THE TERMS
對幾個術語下定義
What Are the Objectives?
什麽是目標？
Ultimately, of course, making money is everyone’s objective. But if trading were only a matter of making money, reading this book wouldn’t be necessary. Putting on a winning trade or even a series of winning trades requires absolutely no skill. On the other hand, creating consistent results and being able to keep what we’ve created does require skill. Making money consistently is a by-product of acquiring and mastering certain mental skills. The degree to which you understand this is the same degree to which you will stop focusing on the money and focus instead on how you can use your trading as a tool to master these skills.
當然了，賺錢是每個人的最終目標。但是，如果交易僅僅是賺錢的事，那麽就沒有必要看這本書。進行一係列賺錢的交易根本不需要任何技術。另一方麵，實現持續一致的結果，並保住勝利果實確實需要技術。學習和掌握這些心理技術的副產品就是持續一致地賺錢。你要聚焦於掌握這些交易技術，不要聚焦於賺錢，你明白這個道理的程度要和你聚焦的程度最好是一樣的。
What Are the Skills?
什麽是技術？
Consistency is the result of a carefree, objective state of mind, where we are making ourselves available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering us (from its perspective) in any given “now moment.”
在“任意時刻”，都能根據市場的信息做決定，並行動，用開放，客觀的思維實現持續一致性。
What Is a Carefree State of Mind?
什麽是開放的思維？
Carefree means confident, but not euphoric. When you are in a carefree state of mind, you won’t feel any fear, hesitation, or compulsion to do anything, because you’ve effectively eliminated the potential to define and interpret market information as threatening. To remove the sense of threat, you have to accept the risk completely. When you have accepted the risk, you will be at peace with any outcome. To be at peace with any outcome, you must reconcile anything in your mental environment that conflicts with the five fundamental truths about the market. What’s more, you also have to integrate these truths into your mental system as core beliefs.
開放意味著自信，但不過分興奮。當你的思維是開放的，你不再害怕、猶豫、或衝動，因為你不再把市場信息解讀為有威脅的。要想去除威脅的感覺，你必須完全接受風險。當你接受了風險，你對結果就比較坦然。要想對結果坦然，你必須把心理環境中的任何東西和5個基本事實協調一致。另外，你還要把這些事實放進你的心理係統，成為你的核心信念。
What Is Objectivity?
什麽是客觀？
Objectivity is a state of mind where you have conscious access to everything you have learned about the nature of market movement. In other words, nothing is being blocked or altered by your pain-avoidance mechanisms.
客觀就是通過學習後，你對市場波動的本質有清醒認識的思維狀態。換句話說，痛苦回避係統不會阻止或改變任何東西。
What Does it Mean to Make Yourself Available?
什麽叫該做就做？
Making yourself available means trading from the perspective that you have nothing to prove. You aren’t trying to win or to avoid losing. You aren’t trying get your money back or to take revenge on the market. In other words, you come to the market with no agenda other than to let it unfold in any way that it chooses and to be in the best state of mind to recognize and take advantage of the opportunities it makes available to you.
該做就做就是該交易就交易，不要去證明什麽。你不是為了贏，也不是為了避免虧損，你不是為了把錢賺回來，也不是為了報複市場。換句話說，你進入市場時並沒有特定的計劃，你讓市場自己展現機會，你的思維發現了這些機會，然後你利用這些機會。
What Is the “Now Moment”?
什麽是“現在”？
Trading in the “now moment” means that there is no potential to associate an opportunity to get into, get out of, add too, or detract from a trade with a past experience that already exists in your mental environment.
“現在”就交易的意思是，不要把進場、出場、加倉、減倉等機會和心理環境中過去的體驗聯係上。
HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS
這些基本事實和技術如何聯係起來
1. Anything can happen. Why? Because there are always unknown forces operating in every market at every moment, it takes only one trader somewhere in the world to negate the positive outcome of your edge. That’s all: only one. Regardless of how much time, effort, or money you’ve invested in your analysis, from the market’s perspective there are no exceptions to this truth. Any exceptions that may exist in your mind will be a source of conflict and potentially cause you to perceive market information as threatening.
1. 任何事都會發生。為什麽？因為在任意時刻，市場裏都有未知的力量，這個世界上隻要有一個交易者和你逆向操作，就有可能讓你的優勢消失。沒錯：一個就行了。不管你花了多少時間、精力或金錢做分析，從市場的角度來說，這個事實是沒有例外情況的。你思想中的任何其它想法都有可能和市場信息發生衝突，讓你認為市場信息是具有威脅性的。
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.
2. 你不必知道市場下一步會如何也能賺錢。為什麽？因為對於任何變數，即使你認為是優勢，贏虧間的分布是隨機的（請看第3點）。換句話說，根據過去的優勢的表現，你知道如果再交易20筆，其中12筆會賺，8筆會虧。你不知道贏和虧的出現順序，你也不知道具體能賺多少錢。這個事實說明交易是概率遊戲或數字遊戲。一旦你真的相信了交易就是概率遊戲，那麽對錯，贏虧等概念就不再重要了。結果是，你的期望將會和可能性保持協調一致。
Keep in mind that nothing has more potential to cause emotional discord than our unfulfilled expectations. Emotional pain is the universal response when the outside world expresses itself in a way that doesn’t reflect what we expect or believe to be true. As a result, any market information that does not confirm our expectations is automatically defined and interpreted as threatening. That interpretation causes us to adopt a negatively charged, defensive state of mind, where we end up creating the very experience we are trying to avoid.
請記住，沒有實現的期望是最容易導致情緒不安的。外部世界的表達方式如果和我們的期望或信仰發生衝突時，情緒痛苦就成了普遍的反應。結果是，如果市場信息和我們的期望不一致，我們就會自動地把信息定義解讀成有威脅的。這種解讀會讓我們的思想變成消極的，防守的，這正是我們要極力避免的結果。
Market information is only threatening if you are expecting the market to do something for you. Otherwise, if you don’t expect the market to make you right, you have no reason to be afraid of being wrong. If you don’t expect the market to make you a winner, you have no reason to be afraid of losing. If you don’t expect the market to keep going in your direction indefinitely, there is no reason to leave money on the table. Finally, if you don’t expect to be able to take advantage of every opportunity just because you perceived it and it presented itself, you have no reason to be afraid of missing out.
如果你期望市場幫你做點什麽，那麽市場信息對你來說就是具有威脅性的。相反，如果你不期望市場證明你是對的，你就沒有理由害怕犯錯；如果你不期望市場讓你成為贏家，你就沒有理由害怕虧損；如果你不期望市場永遠沿著對你有利的方向走，你就沒有理由失算；最後，機會出現了，你看見了機會，如果你不期望每次機會都讓你賺錢，你就沒有理由害怕錯過機會。
On the other hand, if you believe that all you need to know is:
另一方麵，如果你認為所有你要知道的是：
1. the odds are in your favor before you put on a trade;
2. how much it’s going to cost to find out if the trade is going to work;
3. you don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money on that trade; and
4. anything can happen;
1. 在你交易前，概率對你有利；
2. 虧損多少之後才能確認一筆交易是無效果的；
3. 你不必知道下一步會如何也能賺錢；
4. 任何事都會發生；
Then how can the market make you wrong? What information could the market generate about itself that would cause your pain-avoidance mechanisms to kick in so that you exclude that information from your awareness? None that I can think of. If you believe that anything can happen and that you don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money, then you will always be right. Your expectations will always be in harmony with the conditions as they exist from the market’s perspective, effectively neutralizing your potential to experience emotional pain.
那麽，市場是如何讓你犯錯的？是什麽樣的市場信息讓你的痛苦回避係統起了作用，導致你失去了認知信息的意識？我想不到答案。如果你相信任何事都會發生，如果你相信你不必知道下一步會如何也能賺錢，那麽你就會永遠正確。你的期望將會永遠和市場狀況協調一致，有效地避免了發生情緒痛苦的可能性。
By the same token, how can a losing trade or even a series of losers have the typical negative effect, if you really believe that trading is a probability or numbers game? If your edge puts the odds in your favor, then every loss puts you that much closer to a win. When you really believe this, your response to a losing trade will no longer take on a negative emotional quality.
同樣的道理，如果你真的相信交易就是概率遊戲或數字遊戲，那麽一筆虧損或一係列虧損是如何給你造成消極影響的？如果你的優勢概率很大，那麽在一連串的虧損後，你贏的概率反而就更大。一旦你真的相信了這點，你對於虧損的交易就不會再有消極的情緒。
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation. On the other hand, if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right, then after a loss you will anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation, wondering if it’s going to work. This, in turn, will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade. You will gather evidence for the trade if your fear of missing out is greater than your fear of losing. And you will gather information against the trade if your fear of losing is greater than your fear of missing out. In either case, you will not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results.
3. 不管是什麽變數定義的優勢，贏虧間的分布是隨機的。如果每一次虧損讓你離贏利更加接近，你就應該等待下一個優勢（交易機會）的出現，做好準備，一旦出現就毫不猶豫地跳進去。另一方麵，如果你還是相信交易就是靠分析或靠正確的判斷，那麽當你虧損後，當下一個交易機會出現時，你會顯得提心吊膽，心裏還在想這次會不會成功，此時你開始收集證據來證明這筆交易是否值得交易。如果你害怕錯過這次機會，那麽你就會開始收集有利的證據證明這筆交易值得交易；如果你害怕虧損，你就會收集證據證明這筆交易不值得交易。不管是哪種情況，你的思想狀態都無法實現持續一致的收益。
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn’t about hoping, wondering, or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment. When you use “other” information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime. Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and what doesn’t. If you’re never certain about the viability of your edge, you won’t feel too confident about it. To whatever degree you lack confidence, you will experience fear. The irony is, you will be afraid of random, inconsistent results, without realizing that your random, inconsistent approach is creating exactly what you are afraid of.
4. 優勢就是某件事發生的概率比另一件事發生的概率大。要想實現持續一致性，就要完全接受這個觀點，交易不是希望、憧憬、收集信息以決定交易是否有效。你唯一要收集的證據就是定義優勢的變數要在任意時刻都有用。當你使用“其它”信息時，你就給你的交易係統添加了一個隨機變數。隨機變數多了，就超級難決定哪個有效果，哪個沒效果。如果你不能肯定你的優勢有用，你就沒有太多的信心。隻要你沒有信心，無論程度如何，你都會感到恐懼。諷刺的是，你沒有意識到你隨機的不一致的方法產生了你害怕的隨機的不一致的收益。
On the other hand, if you believe that an edge is simply a higher probability of one thing happening over another, and there’s a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge, why would you gather “other” evidence for or against a trade? To a trader operating out of these two beliefs, gathering “other” evidence wouldn’t make any sense. Or let me put it this way: Gathering “other” evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that the next flip will come up tails. By the same token, regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not acting on a trade, it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any, if not all, of your evidence. The point is why bother! If the market is offering you a legitimate edge, determine the risk and take the trade.
另一方麵，如果你相信優勢就是某件事發生的概率比另一件事發生的概率高，對於任何定義優勢的變數，贏虧都是隨機分布的，那你為什麽要收集“其它”證據來反對某筆交易呢？對於同時具備這兩個信念的交易者來說，收集“其它”證據並沒有實際含義。或者讓我這麽說：擲10次硬幣的結果都是反麵，現在努力決定下一次擲硬幣會出現正麵；收集“其它”交易證據和努力決定下一次擲硬幣會出現正麵是一個道理。不管證明下一次出現正麵的證據多麽充分，還是有50%的機會出現反麵。同理，不管你交易的證據是多麽充分，這個世界上隻要有一個交易者反著做，你的證據就失效了。我要說的重點是你沒有必要這麽做！隻要市場給你提供了優勢，你先衡量好風險，然後去交易就行了。
5. Every moment in the market is unique. Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness. “Unique” means not like anything else that exists or has ever existed. As much as we may understand the concept of uniqueness, our minds don’t deal with it very well on a practical level. As we have already discussed, our minds are hardwired to automatically associate (without conscious awareness) anything in the exterior environment that is similar to anything that is already inside of us in the form of a memory, belief, or attitude. This creates an inherent contradiction between the way we naturally think about the world and the way the world exists. No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves. To do so, every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous moment. Not a very likely possibility. Yet, based on the way our minds are designed to process information, we will experience the “now moment” in the environment as being exactly the same as some previous moment as it exists inside our minds.
5. 市場在任意時刻都是獨特的。請花點時間想想獨特的概念。“獨特”意味著和任何東西都不一樣。無論我們如何理解獨特的概念，我們的思維在實際應用時還是處理不好這個概念。我們已經討論過了，我們的思維天生自動地（無意識地）把外部環境和我們內部的記憶、信念或態度聯係起來。這樣就導致了我們天生的對世界的看法和現實世界之間有矛盾。外部世界在兩個不同時刻永遠不會一模一樣，要想實現這點，每個原子和分子必須像前一個時刻一樣存在於同樣的空間，這是不太可能的。然而，根據我們思維處理信息的方法，我們會同時體驗環境中的“現在”和思想中的過去。
If each moment is like no other, then there’s nothing at the level of your rational experience that can tell you for sure that you “know” what will happen next. So I will say again, why bother trying to know?! When you try to know, you are, in essence, trying to be right. I am not implying here that you can’t predict what the market will do next and be right, because you most certainly can. It’s in the trying that you run into all of the problems. If you believe that you correctly predicted the market once, you will naturally try to do it again. As a result, your mind will automatically start scanning the market for the same pattern, circumstance, or situation that existed the last time you correctly predicted its movement. When you find it, your state of mind will make it seem as if everything is exactly as it was the last time. The problem is that, from the market’s perspective, it is not the same. As a result, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
如果每個時刻都不相同，那麽就沒有什麽理性的經驗讓你“知道”下一步會如何。所以我要說，何必要不辭勞苦地想知道一切？！當你盡力想知道的時候，其實你是想讓自己正確。我並不是說你不能預測市場的下一步會如何，因為很多時候你是能做到的，隻是你這麽做會遇到很多問題。如果你認為你曾經有一次正確地預測了市場，你自然還想去嚐試。結果是，你的思維會自動地掃描市場，尋找和上次一樣的模式、環境、或狀況，它們上次證明你的預測是正確的。當你找到了，你的思想會覺得一切都和上次一樣。問題是從市場的角度來說，它們並不一樣。結果是，你自己讓自己失望了。
What separates the best traders from all the rest is that they have trained their minds to believe in the uniqueness of each moment (although this training usually takes the form of losing several fortunes before they “really” believe in the concept of uniqueness). This belief acts as a counteracting force, neutralizing the automatic association mechanism. When you truly believe that each moment is unique, then by definition there isn’t anything in your mind for the association mechanism to link that moment to. This belief acts as an internal force causing you to disassociate the “now” moment in the market from any previous moment filed away in your mental environment. The stronger your belief in the uniqueness of each moment, the lower your potential to associate. The lower your potential to associate, the more open your mind will be to perceive what the market is offering you from its perspective.
最優秀的交易者和其他人的區別是，最優秀的交易者訓練自己的思維相信市場在任意時刻都是獨特的（雖然大多情況下是虧損了很多財產之後才“真的”相信獨特的概念）。對於思想的自動聯想機製來說，這個信念就是反作用力，能緩和一下自動聯想機製的影響。一旦你真的相信每個時刻都是獨特的，那麽根據定義來說，你的思維是不應該再去聯想任何東西的。這個信念就是內部的力量，讓你把市場的“現在”和心理環境中的過去分開。你的任意時刻都是獨特的信念越強，你就越不會去聯想；你越不聯想，你的思維越開放，這樣你就會看到市場提供給你的東西。
MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE”
逐漸進入“這個狀態”
When you completely accept the psychological realities of the market, you will correspondingly accept the risks of trading. When you accept the risks of trading, you eliminate the potential to define market information in painful ways. When you stop defining and interpreting market information in painful ways, there is nothing for your mind to avoid, nothing to protect against. When there’s nothing to protect against, you will have access to all that you know about the nature of market movement. Nothing will get blocked, which means you will perceive all the possibilities you have learned about (objectively), and since your mind is open to a true exchange of energy, you will quite naturally start discovering other possibilities (edges) that you formerly couldn’t perceive.
當你接受了市場的心理現實，你就會相應地接受交易的風險；當你接受了風險，你就不會痛苦地定義市場信息了；當你不再痛苦地定義或解讀市場信息，你的思維就不會回避阻攔任何信息；當你的思維不會回避阻攔任何信息的時候，你就會努力去了解市場波動的本質。任何信息都不會被阻攔意味著你會（客觀地）看見所有的可能性；因為你的思維是開放的，可以接受真實的能量交換，你就會自然地發現以前沒有發現的其它可能性（優勢）。
For your mind to be open to a true exchange of energy, you can’t be in a state of knowing or believing that you already know what’s going to happen next. When you are at peace with not knowing what’s going to happen next, you can interact with the market from a perspective where you will be making yourself available to let the market tell you, from its perspective, what is likely to happen next. At that point, you will be in the best state of mind to spontaneously enter “the zone,” where you are tapped into the “now moment opportunity flow.”
為了實現開放的思維，為了讓你的思維能夠接受能量交換，你不能說自己知道或相信下一步會如何。當你平靜地接受自己並不知道市場下一步會如何，你就會和市場溝通，讓市場告訴你下一步會如何。此時，你的思維狀態就是進入“狀態”了，你可以利用“現在的機會流”。
CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS
第09章 信念的本質
At this point, if you can sense the benefits of adopting the five fundamental truths about trading, then the task is to learn how to properly integrate these truths into your mental system as core beliefs that are not in conflict with any other beliefs you may hold.
此時，如果你能體會到采用5個交易基本事實的好處，那麽現在的任務是如何把這些事實融於你的心理係統，讓它們作為核心的信念，這些信念不會和你已經擁有的其它信念發生衝突。
At first glance, this may seem like a daunting task and under other circumstances I would agree with you, but it won’t be, because in Chapter 11 I’ll give you a simple trading exercise specifically designed to properly install these truths as beliefs at a functional level. A functional level is, one where you find yourself just naturally operating out of a carefree state of mind, perceiving exactly what you need to do and doing it without hesitation or internal conflict.
第一眼看去，這個任務有點可怕，如果是其它情況，我會同意你的；但是現在我不會認為這是可怕的任務，因為在第11章我會用特意設計的練習給你安裝這些事實的信念，並讓它們具有可操作性。具有可操作性指你在交易時很自然地放開思維，該做就做，沒有猶豫，也沒有內心衝突。
However, I do have a word of caution for those of you who have already looked at the exercise. On the surface, the trading exercise looks so simple that you may be tempted to do it now, before you thoroughly understand the implications of what you are doing. I strongly suggest that you reconsider. There are some subtle yet profound dynamics involved in the process of learning how to install new beliefs and change any existing beliefs that are in conflict with the new ones. Understanding the trading exercise itself is easy. Understanding how to use the exercise to change your beliefs is another matter entirely. If you do the exercise without understanding the concepts presented in this chapter and the next, you will not achieve the desired results.
然而，我要警告已經看過這次練習的人。表麵上看，這個交易練習很簡單，你恨不得現在就去做，但是你沒有完全理解它的含義。我強烈建議你再次慎重考慮。學習如何安裝新的信念，並替換掉過去的有衝突的信念，這個過程中會有細微但深奧的動力。了解這個交易練習本身是很簡單的，但是了解如何把這次練習用來改變你的信念則是另外一回事了。如果你沒有理解本章和下一章的概念，就去做這次練習，你就不會達到既定的目的。
It is also important that you not take for granted the amount of mental effort you may have to expend to train your mind to fully accept these principles of success, regardless of how well you understand them. Remember Bob, the CTA who believed he thoroughly understood the concept of probabilities, but didn’t have the ability to function from a probabilistic perspective.
不管你的理解多深，完全接受這些成功的原則也是不容易的，不要想當然地以為你簡單訓練一下自己的思維就行了，這點也很重要。還記得鮑伯吧，這個注冊交易顧問以為他完全懂了概率的概念，但是他沒有能力從概率的角度來操作。
Many people make the mistake of assuming that once they understand something, the insight inherent in their new understanding automatically becomes a functional part of their identity. Most of the time, understanding a concept is only a first step in the process of integrating that concept at a functional level. This is especially true of concepts that deal with thinking in probabilities. Our minds are not naturally wired to be “objective” or to stay in the “now moment.” This means we have to actively train our minds to think from these perspectives.
很多人都犯了一個錯誤，他們以為隻要自己了解了什麽，他們天生的認知就能自動地去行動。大部分時間，了解一個概念隻是把這個概念融於操作性的第一步。在用概率思考方麵，這個概念更加真實。我們的思維並不是天生就是“客觀的”，也不是天生就知道專注於“現在”。這意味著我們要積極地訓練我們的思維從這些角度思考。
In addition to the training involved, there may be any number of conflicting beliefs to work through. Conflicting beliefs will have the effect of sabotaging your best intentions to operate from an objective state of mind or to experience the “now moment opportunity flow.” For example, let’s say you’ve spent years learning how to read the markets, or spent large sums of money developing or buying technical systems, just so you could find out what was going to happen next. Now you have come to understand that you don’t have to know what’s going to happen next, and that even trying to know will detract from your ability to be objective or to stay in the moment. What we have is a direct conflict between your old belief that you need to know what will happen next to be successful and your new understanding that you don’t need to know.
除了要訓練，還要處理一些有衝突的信念。衝突的信念會摧毀你客觀的行動意圖，或讓你錯失“現在的機會流”。比如，假如說我們花了幾年時間學習如何解讀市場，或者是花了很多錢去開發或購買技術交易係統，這樣你就能知道市場下一步會如何了。現在你已經明白了你不必知道市場下一步會如何，而且努力去知道會讓你失去客觀的能力或不在狀態。直接的衝突就是老信念認為必須知道市場下一步會如何，而新的信念則認為不必知道市場下一步會如何。
Now, will your new understanding suddenly neutralize all the time, money, and energy expended on reinforcing the belief that you “need to know”? I wish it were that easy. And for some lucky few, it may be. If you will recall in Chapter 4 when I talked about psychological distance in relationship to software code, I said that some traders may already be so close to these new perspectives that all they need is to put together a few of the missing pieces to create a mind-altering, “ah, ha” experience.
你花了很多時間、金錢和精力以加強你“必須知道”這個信念，現在新的認知是不是突然把這個信念中和了？我希望會很輕鬆，對於少數幸運的人，也許真的有這麽輕鬆。如果你還記得在第04章，當我談到軟件代碼錯誤代表的心理距離時，我說有些交易者離這個新的認知已經很近了，他們隻需要多走幾步，就會驚呼“啊哈，我明白了”。
However, based on my experience of working with well over a thousand traders, I can say that most are not close to these perspectives at all. For those of you who are not, it may take a considerable amount of mental work (over a considerable amount of time) to properly integrate your new understandings about trading into your mental environment. The good news is that, ultimately, the exercise I present in Chapter 11 will install the five fundamental truths and resolve many of the potential conflicts, but only if you know exactly what you are doing and why you are doing it. That is the subject of this and the next chapter.
然而，根據我和上千個交易者溝通的經驗，我可以說大部分人根本沒有徹底了解那個認知。對於還沒有做到的人，也許需要做很多心理工作（花大量的時間）才能把新的認知融於你的心理環境。好消息是在第11章我安排的練習會把5個基本的事實給你安裝上，並解決你的很多潛在的衝突，但是你要知道你在做什麽，以及為什麽你要這麽做。這就是本章和下一章的主題。
THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF
信念的來源
What can we learn about the nature of beliefs, and how can we use that knowledge to create a mind-set that fosters our desire to be a consistently successful trader? These are the two questions I am going to focus on answering in this chapter.
信念的本質是什麽，如何才能把這個知識轉化成持續一致成功交易者的思維？本章將重點回答這兩個問題。
First, let’s look at the origin of our beliefs. As you may recall, memories, distinctions, and beliefs exist in the form of energy - specifically, structured energy. Earlier, I lumped these three mental components together to illustrate:
首先，讓我們看看信念的來源。如果你還記得的話，回憶、記憶、特征和信念都是以能量的形態存在的——更具體地說是以結構能量的形態存在的。我把三個心理因素放到一起加以說明：
1. that memories, distinctions, and beliefs do not exist as physical matter;
2. that the cause-and-effect relationship that exists between ourselves and the external environment brings these components into existence; and
3. how the cause-and-effect relationship reverses so that we can perceive in the external environment what we have learned about.
1. 記憶、特征和信念不是以物理形態存在；
2. 外部環境和我們內部的因果關係導致了記憶、特征和信念的存在；
3. 因果關係如何逆轉，這樣我們才能看到我們學習過的外部環境。
To get at the origins of our beliefs, we’re going to have to unbundle these components to illustrate the difference between a memory and a belief. The best way to do this is to imagine ourselves in the mind of an infant. I would think that at the very beginning of a child’s life, the memories of his experiences would exist in their purest form. By that I mean that the memories of what he has seen, heard, smelled, touched, or tasted exist in his mind as pure sensory information that is not organized or attached to any specific words or concepts. Therefore, I am going to define a pure memory as sensory information stored in its original form.
要想知道信念的來源，我們要對這些因素分別說明以解釋記憶和信念的區別。最好的方法就是想象我們的思維和嬰兒一樣。我想一個人小的時候，他的經曆的記憶是以最純的形態存在的。他看到的、聽到的、聞到的、摸到的、嚐到的記憶在他的思想中以純粹的感官信息存在，沒有經過任何具體的詞匯或概念的調整。因此，我將把純粹的記憶定義為以原始形態存儲的感官信息。
A belief, on the other hand, is a concept about the nature of the way the external environment expresses itself. A concept combines pure sensory information with a symbol system we call language. For example, most infants have a pure memory of how it feels to be lovingly nurtured by a parent, but it isn’t until the infant is taught to link or associate certain words with the pure sensory information stored in his memory that he will form a concept about how it feels to be lovingly nurtured.
另一方麵，信念是外部環境表達自己的自然概念。概念是純粹的感官信息和語言的合體。比如，大部分嬰兒對父母的愛心養育都有一個純粹的記憶，但是在嬰兒時期，他不知道把詞匯和純粹的感官信息聯係起來形成記憶，所以他對愛心養育是沒有概念的。
The phrase “Life is wonderful” is a concept. By themselves, the words make up a meaningless collection of abstract symbols. But if a child is either taught or decides to connect these words to his positively charged feelings of being nurtured, then the letters are no longer a collection of abstract symbols and the words are no longer an abstract phrase. “Life is wonderful” becomes a definitive distinction about the nature of existence or the way the world works. By the same token, if the child didn’t get enough nurturing, relative to his needs, he could just as easily link his feelings of emotional pain to a concept like “Life isn’t fair” or “The world is an awful place.”
“生活是美好的”，這句話是概念。詞匯把抽象的符號連接在一起。但是，如果小孩沒有接受教育，或者是無法把這些詞匯聯係起來，那麽這些單詞就沒有把抽象的符號聯係起來，單詞也沒有抽象的意義。“生活是美好的”成為自然存在的特征，或是世界規律的特征。同理，如果小孩沒有得到足夠的養育，他就可以輕鬆地把他的情緒痛苦和“生活是不公平的”或“這個世界是個可怕的地方”等概念聯係起來。
In any case, when the positive or negative energy from our memories or experiences become linked to a set of words we call a concept, the concept becomes energized and, as a result, is transformed into a belief about the nature of reality. If you consider that concepts are structured by the framework of a language and energized by our experiences, it becomes clear why I refer to beliefs as “structured energy.”
無論是哪種情況，我們記憶或經曆中的積極或消極能量和單詞聯係起來就是概念，概念被能量化以後形成信念，信念就是對現實本質的看法。如果你考慮到概念就是我們的經曆被語言組織起來，被賦予了能量，就很清楚為什麽我說信念是“結構能量”。
When a belief comes into existence, what does it do? What is its function? In some ways it seems ludicrous to ask those questions. After all, we all have beliefs. We are constantly expressing our beliefs both verbally and through our actions. Furthermore, we are constantly interacting with other peoples beliefs as they express them. Yet, if I ask, “What exactly does a belief do?” chances are your mind will go blank.
當信念存在時，它會幹什麽？它的功能是什麽？有時候覺得問這樣的問題很荒唐。然而，我們都有信念。我們總是通過語言和行動來表達自己的信念。另外，我們總是在和別人的信念交涉。如果我問：“信念到底在做什麽？”你的思想就變得空白了。
On the other hand, if I were to ask about the functions of your eyes, ears, nose, or teeth, you would have no problem answering. Since beliefs are such important component parts of our make-up (in terms of their impact on the quality of our lives), it certainly has to be one of life’s great ironies that they are also the least thought about and understood.
另一方麵，如果我問眼、耳、鼻、牙齒的功能是什麽，你肯定能輕鬆地回答出來。考慮到信念是我們的重要組成部分（它影響我們的生活質量），我們竟然沒想到它的功能是什麽，這是一個很大的諷刺。
What I mean by “least thought about” is, if we have a problem with one of our body parts, we naturally focus our attention on that part and think about what we need to do to fix the problem. However, it doesn’t necessarily occur to us that the problems we may be having with the quality of our lives (for example, lack of happiness, a sense of dissatisfaction, or lack of success in some area) are rooted in our beliefs.
“沒想到它”的意思是，如果我們身體某個部分出現了問題，我們自然會關注，並思考如何解決這個問題。然而，我們沒想到是我們的信念出了問題，影響了我們的生活質量（比如不幸福、不滿、某方麵的不成功）。
This lack of consideration is a universal phenomenon. One of the prominent characteristics of beliefs is that they make what we experience seem self evident and beyond question. In fact, if it weren’t for your intense desire to experience consistent success as a trader, it’s unlikely you would be delving into this topic at all. Usually, it takes years of extreme frustration before people begin examining their beliefs as the source of their difficulties.
沒想到這點是很正常的現象。信念的一個顯著特點是，它讓我們的經曆看起來是不言而喻的。實際上，如果你不是渴望成為一個持續一致的交易者，你都不會研究這個話題。通常，隻有經曆了極度的挫折以後，人們才會停下來檢查自己的信念，看看是不是信念導致自己經曆了這些困難。
However, even though beliefs are an intricate part of our identity, you don’t have to take this process of self analysis so personally. Consider the fact that none of us was born with any of our beliefs. They were all acquired in a combination of ways. Many of the beliefs that have the most profound impact on our lives were not even acquired by us as an act of free will. They were instilled by other people. And it probably won’t come as a surprise to anyone that usually the beliefs that cause us the most difficulty are those that were acquired from others without our conscious consent. By that I mean beliefs that we acquired when we were too young and uninformed to realize the negative implications of what we were being taught.
然而，即使信念是我們整體的錯綜複雜的一部分，你並不需要自己去分析。考慮到我們在出生時都沒有任何信念。他們都是通過多種方法得到的。很多對我們生活有重大影響的信念並不是我們自己得到的，是其他人灌輸給我們的。而且，讓我們遇到困難的信念都是從別人那裏得到的，我們並沒有在意識上感受過這些信念，所以遇到困難是不奇怪的。我的意思是說，當我們小的時候被灌輸這些信念時，我們並沒有被告知這些信念的消極含義。
Regardless of the source of our beliefs, once they are born into existence they all basically function in the same way. Beliefs have certain characteristic ways in which they do their jobs, not unlike the various parts of our bodies. For example, if you compare my eyes and your eyes, or my hands and your hands, or my red blood cells and your red blood cells, we can see that they are not exactly the same, but they have characteristics in common that cause them to function in similar ways. By the same token, a belief that “Life is wonderful” will perform its function in the same way as a belief that “Life is awful.” The beliefs themselves are different and the effect that each has on the quality of the holder’s life will be vastly different, but both beliefs will function in exactly the same manner.
暫且不談信念的來源，隻要它們存在，它們的功能就是一樣的。和我們的身體不同部分不一樣，信念有特定的做事方法。比如，如果你比較我的眼睛和你的眼睛，或者比較我的手和你的手，或者比較我的血液紅細胞和你的血液紅細胞，它們都不一樣，但是它們的功能都一樣。同理，“生活是美好的”和“生活是糟糕的”，這兩個信念的功能是一樣的。不同的信念對不同人的影響也不同，但信念的工作原理一樣。
BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES
信念和它們對我們生活的影響
In the broadest sense, our beliefs shape the way we experience our lives. As I have already said, we’re not born with any of our beliefs. They’re acquired, and as they accumulate, we live our lives in a way that reflects what we have learned to believe. Consider how different your life would be if you had been born into a culture, religion, or political system that has very little, if anything, in common with the one you were born into. It might be hard to imagine, but what you would have learned to believe about the nature of life and how the world works may not be remotely similar to what you currently believe. Yet you would hold these other beliefs with the same degree of certainty as your current beliefs.
總體而言，信念決定了我們對生活的體驗。我說過，我們出生時沒有任何信念。我們是在我們認可的生活方式中慢慢積累這些信念的。如果你出生時的文化、宗教或政治完全不同，可以想象你的生活也會有很大的不同。你現在對生活的認知和你對世界的認知可能和你以前學到的有所不同，這有點難想象。你會把類似的信念當作你現在的信念。
How Beliefs Shape Our Lives
信念是如何形成我們的生活的
1. They manage our perception and interpretation of environmental information in a way that is consistent with what we believe.
2. They create our expectations. Keep in mind that an expectation is a belief projected into some future moment. Since we can’t expect something we don’t know about, we could also say that an expectation is what we know projected into some future moment.
3. Anything we decide to do or any outward expression of behavior will be consistent with what we believe.
4. Finally, our beliefs shape how we feel about the results of our actions.
1. 它們管理我們對環境信息的認知和解讀，讓我們一直相信。
2. 它們製造期望。記住，期望是信念投射到未來的東西。因為我們不能期望我們不知道的東西，我們也可以說期望就是我們知道的東西投射到未來。
3. 我們決定做的任何事或行為的外部表達都會和我們相信的保持一致。
4. 最後，我們的信念形成我們對行動結果的感覺。
There isn’t much about the way we function that beliefs don’t play a major role in. So what I am going to do now is give you an example I used in my first book, The Disciplined Trader, to illustrate the various functions of a belief.
我們做的事，大多都是因為信念起了很大的作用。所以我講給你一個案例，是我在第一本書《有紀律的交易者》提到的，以說明信念的不同功能。
In the spring of 1987, I was watching a locally produced television program called “Gotcha Chicago.” It was about some local celebrities who played practical jokes on one another. In one segment of the program, the TV station hired a man to stand on the sidewalk along Michigan Avenue holding a sign that read “Free money. Today only.” (For those of you who are not familiar with Chicago, Michigan Avenue is home to many fashionable, exclusive department stores and boutiques.) The TV station gave the man a considerable amount of cash, with instructions to give money to anyone who asked for it.
1987年春天，我正在看當地的電視節目《哈哈芝加哥》。內容是一些當地的社會名流互相開玩笑。在其中一集，電視台請了一個人站在密歇根大道旁邊，手上拿著一個牌子，上麵寫著：“免費送錢，僅限今天（如果你不了解芝加哥，我解釋一下，密歇根大道有很多漂亮的專賣店和時裝店）”。電視台給了這個人很多現金並告訴他，隻要有人要，就給對方錢。
Now, when you consider that Michigan Avenue is one of the busiest areas of the city, and if we assume that most of the people who passed the man on the street could read the sign, how many people would you think took him up on his offer and asked for some money? Of all the people who walked by and read the sign, only one person stopped, and said, “Great! May I have a quarter to buy a bus transfer?” Otherwise, no one would even go near the man.
當你想到密歇根大道是本市最繁忙的大道之一，如果很多人經過這個拿著牌子的人，會有多少人找他要錢呢？所有經過的人中間，隻有一個人停下來說：“不錯！我可以拿25分錢坐公交車嗎？”剩下來的人都沒有走近這個人。
Eventually, the man grew frustrated because people weren’t reacting the way he expected them to. He started crying out, “Do you want any money? Please take my money; I can’t give it away fast enough.” Everyone just kept walking around him as if he didn’t exist. In fact, I noticed that several people went out of their way to avoid him. As a man wearing a suit and carrying a briefcase approached, he went right up to him and said, “Would you like some money?” The man responded, “Not today.” Really frustrated now, he shot back, “How many days does this happen? Would you please take this?” as he tried to hand the man some cash. The man responded with a terse “No” and walked on.
因為沒有人找他要錢，這個人最終深受挫折。他開始大喊：“你們要錢嗎？請來這裏拿，我發不完啊。”每個人都是從他旁邊匆匆而過，似乎他並不存在。實際上，我注意到有幾個人還刻意回避他，從旁邊走過去。當有一個穿著西裝，拿著手提箱的人走近時，他走上去問：“你想要點錢嗎？”這個人回答說：“今天不需要”。他真的深感挫折，大聲回喊道：“你要等多久？請收下這錢吧？”他努力給這個人一些現金，這個人簡單地說了一聲：“不”，就走了。
What was going on here? Why wouldn’t anyone (except for the person who needed a bus transfer) ask for the money? If we assume that most or all of the passersby could read the sign, but still didn’t make any effort to get the money, then one possible explanation for their behavior is that they just didn’t care about money. This is extremely unlikely, though, considering how much of our lives is devoted to the pursuit of money.
這是怎麽回事呢？為什麽沒有人要錢（除了坐公交車的那個人）？如果說大部分人都看見了這個牌子，卻不願意嚐試去拿錢，那麽隻有一個解釋，那就是他們不關心錢。但這太不合理了，我們在生活中都是努力追求錢的。
If we agree that people could read the sign and that money is very important to most of us, then what could have stopped these people from helping themselves? The environment was making available an experience that most people would love to have: someone giving them money with no strings attached. Yet everyone walked by, oblivious to what was awaiting them. They must not have been able to perceive what was available. That’s hard to imagine, because the sign clearly stated “Free money. Today only.” However, it’s not hard to imagine if you consider that most people have a belief (an energized concept about how the world works) that “Free money doesn’t exist.”
如果我們都同意人們看見了那個牌子，他們也能看懂，也同意錢對大多數人是很重要的，那麽這些人為何不願意接受幫助呢？大部分人都希望：別人無條件給他錢。每個經過的人都看見了這個牌子，盼望的事等到了，但是他們沒有去行動。他們肯定是沒有搞懂這到底是什麽意思。雖然牌子上寫著“免費給錢，僅限今天”，但是不敢相信。因為大部分人心裏還有一個信念：“天下沒有免費的午餐”（一個對世界運作的能量概念），所以他們很難相信這是真的。
If free money really doesn’t exist, then how does someone reconcile the obvious contradiction between that belief and the sign saying that it does? That’s easy, just decide the man with the sign is crazy; what else could account for such bizarre behavior if, in fact, free money doesn’t exist? The reasoning process that could compensate for the contradiction might go something like this: “Everyone knows getting money with no strings attached rarely happens. Certainly not from a stranger on one of the busiest streets in the city. In fact, if the man were really giving away money, he would already be mobbed. He might even be endangering his life. He must be crazy. I had better take a wide path around him; who knows what he might do?”
如果天下沒有免費的午餐，那麽人們如何解決這個信念和牌子的矛盾？這很簡單，就認為拿牌子的人是瘋子。如果天下沒有免費的午餐，那麽這個古怪的人不是瘋子是什麽？這個推理過程可以補償我們的矛盾心理。還有以下類似的推理過程：“每個人都知道無償地得到一筆錢的可能性很小。當然在最繁忙的大道上更不可能。實際上，如果這個人真的在送錢，他早就被圍個水泄不通了。也許他的生活出了問題。他肯定瘋了。我最好遠離他，誰知道他會幹什麽？”
Notice that every component of the thought process described is consistent with the belief that free money doesn’t exist.
請注意，每個思維過程都說明了這個信念：天下沒有免費的午餐。
1. The words “free money” were neither perceived nor interpreted as they were intended from the environment s perspective.
2. Deciding the person with the sign must be crazy created an expectation of danger, or at least a perception that caution was warranted.
3. Purposefully altering one’s path to avoid the person with the sign is an action that is consistent with the expectation of danger.
4. How did each person feel about the outcome? That’s difficult to say without knowing each person individually, but a good generalization would be that they felt relieved that they successfully avoided an encounter with a crazy person.
1. 從市場的角度來看，“免費送錢”這個詞組既沒有被認知，也沒有被理解。
2. 認為這個人是瘋子，產生了危險的預期，至少意識到要保持警惕。
3. 繞著路避開這個拿著牌子的人說明有危險的預期。
4. 每個人對結果的感覺如何？因為不知道每個人的個性，所以很難說。但是總體而言，他們會為成功地回避了這個瘋子而感到輕鬆。
The feeling of relief that resulted from avoiding a confrontation is a state of mind. Remember that how we feel (the relative degree of positively or negatively charged energy flowing through our bodies and minds) is always the absolute truth. But the beliefs that prompt any particular state of mind may not be the truth with respect to the possibilities available from the environment’s perspective.
避免疑惑以後的輕鬆也是一種思想狀態。記住，我們的感受都是絕對真實的（隻是流過我們身體和思想的能量分為積極的和消極的）。考慮到環境也許有多種可能性，信念導致的某些思想不一定就是真實的。
Relief from confrontation was not the only possible outcome in this situation. Imagine how different the experience would be if they believed that “free money exists.” The process described above would be the same, except it would make the belief that “free money exists,” seem self-evident and beyond question, just as it made the belief that “free money doesn’t exist,” seem self-evident and beyond question.
記住，上麵所說的情況並非隻有碰到並回避之後的放鬆這一種可能的結果。想象一下，如果他們相信“天下有免費的午餐”，體驗會有多大的不同。過程和上麵一樣，他們就像毫無疑問地相信“天下沒有免費的午餐”一樣毫無疑問地相信“天下有免費的午餐”。
A perfect example would be the one person who said “great, may I have a quarter for a bus transfer.” When I saw this, I had the anybody for a quarter. A panhandler is someone who definitely believes in the existence of free money. Therefore, his perception and interpretation of the sign were exactly what was intended by the TV station. His expectation and behavior were consistent with his belief that free money exists. And how would he feel about the results? He got his quarter, so I would assume he felt a sense of satisfaction. Of course, what he didn’t know is that he could have gotten a lot more.
最完美的案例就是上麵那個說：“不錯！我可以拿25分錢坐公交車嗎”的人。當我看到這裏時，我想任何人都可以要25分錢。乞丐就是絕對相信天下有免費的午餐的人。因此，對這個牌子的認知和解讀正是電視台希望的。他的期望和行為都和他的信念一致，那就是天下有免費午餐。他對結果的感受如何？他拿到了25分錢，所以我想他感覺是滿意的。當然了，他不知道他本可以得到更多的錢。
There’s another possible outcome for our scenario. Let’s look at a hypothetical example of someone who believes that “free money doesn’t exist,” but who takes a “what if approach to the situation”. In other words, some people can be so intrigued and curious about the possibilities that they decide to temporarily suspend their belief that “free money doesn’t exist.” This temporary suspension allows them to act outside the boundaries created by a belief, in order to see what happens. So instead of ignoring the man with the sign, which would be our hypothetical person’s first inclination, he walks up to him and says, “Give me ten dollars.” The man promptly pulls a ten-dollar bill out of his pocket and gives it to him. What happens now? How does he feel, having experienced something unexpected that completely contradicted his belief?
上麵所說的情況還有另外一個可能的結果。讓我們看看假想的例子，一個人相信“天下沒有免費的午餐”，與此同時他相信“如果遇到這種情況，會如何呢。”換句話說，有些人對可能的事非常著迷，非常好奇，他們可以暫時放棄“天下沒有免費的午餐”這個信念。這種暫時的放棄會讓他們打破信念的障礙，並看看會有什麽事發生。所以他們不會對拿牌子的人感到討厭，他走上去說：“給我10元。”對方立刻從口袋裏抽出10元錢給他了。現在會如何？他感覺如何，為何現實和他的信念完全矛盾呢？
For most people, the belief that free money doesn’t exist is acquired through unpleasant circumstances, to put it mildly. The most common way is being told that we can’t have something because it’s too expensive. How many times does the typical child hear, “Who do you think you are anyway? Money doesn’t grow on trees, you know.” In other words, it is probably a negatively charged belief. So the experience of having money handed to him with no strings attached and without any negative comments would likely create a state of mind of pure elation.
對於大部分人，天下沒有免費的午餐這個信念是通過不愉快的方式得到的。通常發生在我們想要一些昂貴的東西，然後有人告訴告訴我們天下沒有免費的午餐。小孩一般會聽到多少次“你以為你是誰？樹上又不會長錢。”換句話說，這是消極的信念。所以，那個人無償得到了錢，還沒有被責罵的經曆，會讓他產生得意洋洋的思想狀態。
In fact, most people would be so happy that they’d feel compelled to share that happiness and this new discovery with everyone they knew. I can imagine him going back to his office or going home, and the moment he encounters someone he knows, the first words out of his mouth will be “You won’t believe what happened to me today,” and even though he desperately wants those he meets to believe his story, they probably won’t. Why? Because their belief that free money doesn’t exist will cause them to interpret his story in a way that negates its validity.
實際上，大部分人喜歡和別人分享自己的快樂和新發現。我可以想象他回到辦公室或回家後，遇到了熟人，脫口而出的就是：“你不相信今天發生了什麽事”，事實上他希望對方相信他的故事，但是一般人都不相信，為什麽。因為如果相信了這個故事，那就說明天下沒有免費的午餐這個信念是錯的。
To take this example a little further, imagine what would happen to this person’s state of mind if it occurred to him that he could have asked for more money. He is in a state of pure elation. However, the moment the thought either pops into his mind or someone he relates his story to offers the idea that he could have asked for a lot more money, his state of mind will immediately shift to a negatively charged state of regret or despair. Why? He tapped into a negatively charged belief about what it means to miss out on something or not get enough. As a result, instead of being happy over what he got, he will lament what he could have had but didn’t get.
更深入地研究這個案例，如果他知道自己可以要更多的錢，他心裏會怎麽想。他本來是純粹的得意洋洋。然而，如果他突然想到可以做要點錢，或者是一個熟人告訴他是可以多要點錢的，他的思想立刻會變成消極狀態的後悔和絕望，為什麽？他發現自己錯過了機會，他後悔自己沒有多要點錢，也就是說他碰到了消極的信念。結果是，他不但不為此快樂，他還會為沒有多要點錢而悲傷。
BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH
信念和事實
In all three of these examples (including the hypothetical one), everybody experienced their own unique version of the situation. If asked, each person would describe what he or she experienced from their perspective, as if it were the only true and valid version of the reality of the situation. The contradiction between these three versions of the truth suggests to me a larger philosophical issue that needs to be resolved. If beliefs limit our awareness of the information being generated by the physical environment, so that what we perceive is consistent with whatever we believe, then how do we know what the truth is?
在這三個例子中（包括假想的那個），每個人的體驗都是自己的獨特版本。如果你去問他們，每個人都會根據自己的認知說他經曆了什麽，似乎那就是真實情況唯一的有效版本。這三個真實版本的矛盾建議我要解決一個很大的哲學問題。如果信念限製了我們了解物理環境的信息，造成我們認知的就是我們相信的，那麽我們如何知道事實是什麽？
To answer this question, we have to consider four ideas:
回答這個問題之前，我們必須考慮4個想法：
1. The environment can express itself in an infinite combination of ways. When you combine all the forces of nature interacting with everything created by humans, then add to that the forces generated by all the possible ways people can express themselves, the result is a number of possible versions of reality that would surely overwhelm even the most open-minded person.
2. Until we have acquired the ability to perceive every possible way in which the environment can express itself, our beliefs will always represent a limited version of what is possible from the environment’s perspective, making our beliefs a statement about reality, but not necessarily a definitive statement of reality.
3. If you find yourself taking exception to the second statement, then consider that if our beliefs were a true, 100-percent accurate reflection of physical reality, then our expectations would always be fulfilled. If our expectations were always fulfilled, we would be in a perpetual state of satisfaction. How could we feel other than happy, joyful, elated, and with a complete sense of well-being if physical reality was consistently showing up exactly as we expected it to?
4. If you can accept the third statement as being valid, then the corollary is also true. If we are not experiencing satisfaction, then we must be operating out of a belief or beliefs that don’t work very well relative to the environmental conditions.
1. 環境表達自己的方式有很多種組合。如果你綜合考慮人類和自然力量的情況，再加上所有人類表達自己的力量，結果就會有很多事實的版本，思維最開放的人也會由此而頭昏。
2. 除非我們有能力認知環境，否則我們的信念對環境的反應總是有局限的，我們的信念能反應現實，但不能定義現實。
3. 如果你發現第2點有例外情況，那麽請考慮是否我們的信念100%地反應了實物現實，如果這樣，那麽我們的期望都能被實現。如果我們的期望總是能被實現，我們應該一直很滿意。如果事實和我們期望的總是一樣，為何我們感受不到幸福、快樂、興高采烈、悠然自得？
4. 如果你接受第3點，那麽推論也是真實的。如果我們感覺不到滿意，那麽我們就沒有信念，或者是信念和環境狀況不協調。
Taking these four ideas into consideration, I can now answer the question, “What is the truth?” The answer is, whatever works. If beliefs impose limitations on what we perceive as possible, and the environment can express itself in an infinite combination of ways, then beliefs can only be true relative to what we are attempting to accomplish at any given moment. In other words, the relative degree of truth inherent in our beliefs can be measured by how useful they are.
考慮一下這4個想法，我能回答這個問題：“什麽是事實？”答案是，任何有效的東西。如果信念對我們認為可能的事加了限製，而環境表達自己的方式又是無限的，那麽信念僅僅是反應了我們想完成的願望。換句話說，我們信念中事實的真實程度可以用它們的作用大小來衡量。
Each of us has internally generated forces (curiosity, needs, wants, desires, goals, and aspirations) that compel or motivate us to interact with the physical environment. The particular set of steps we take to fulfill the object of our curiosity, needs, wants, desires, goals, or aspirations is a function of what we believe to be true in any given circumstance or situation. That truth, whatever it is, will determine:
每個人都有天生的力量（好奇、需要、想要、渴望、目標、期望）推動或刺激我們和物理環境交涉。我們采取一切步驟滿足這些好奇、需要、想要、渴望、目標、期望，這是我們在任何環境下相信我們相信的東西的功能。不管事實是什麽，它會決定：
1. the possibilities we perceive in relation to what is available from the environment’s perspective,
2. how we interpret what we perceive,
3. the decisions we make,
4. our expectations of the outcome,
5. the action we take, and
6. how we feel about the results of our efforts.
1. 從環境的角度來看我們認知的可能性，
2. 我們如何解讀我們的認知，
3. 我們做的決定，
4. 我們對結果的期望，
5. 我們的行動，
6. 我們對努力後結果的感受如何
At any given moment, if we find ourselves in a state of satisfaction, happiness, or well-being in relation to whatever we are attempting to accomplish, we can say that our truth (meaning whatever beliefs we are operating from) are useful because the process, as stated above, worked. What we perceived was not only consistent with our objective, it was also consistent with what was available from the environment’s perspective. Our interpretation of the information we perceived resulted in a decision, expectation, and action that were in harmony with the environmental situation and circumstance. There was no resistance or counteracting force offered by the environment (or in our own mind) that would diminish the outcome we were trying to achieve. As a result, we find ourselves in a state of satisfaction, happiness, and well-being.
在任意時刻，對於任何我們想完成的事，如果我們是滿意的、幸福的、或者是感覺很好的，那麽我們可以說事實（不管是使用了什麽信念）是有用的，因為這個過程是有用的。我們的認知不但和目標一致，也和環境一致。我們對信息的解讀形成的決定、期望和行動，它們和環境是一致的。環境（或我們的思想）沒有提出阻力以消除我們努力想要的結果。結果是，我們就感覺很滿意、幸福、很好。
On the other hand, if we find ourselves in a state of dissatisfaction, disappointment, frustration, confusion, despair, regret, or hopelessness, we can say that relative to the environmental situation and circumstances, the beliefs we are operating from don’t work well or at all, and therefore are not useful. Simply put, the truth is a function of whatever works in relation to what we are trying to accomplish at any given moment.
另一方麵，如果我們感覺不滿意、失望、挫折、迷惑、絕望、後悔或沒有希望，那麽我們可以說，相對於環境而言，讓我們行動的信念不起作用，因此沒用。簡單地說，相對於我們努力想實現的目標，事實就是有用東西的功能。
CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING
第10章 信念對交易的影響
If the external environment can express itself in an infinite combination of ways, then there’s really no limit to the number and types of beliefs available to be acquired about the nature of our existence. That is an elaborate way of saying that there’s a lot out there to be learned about. Yet, to make a general observation about the nature of humanity, I would say that we certainly don’t live our lives in a manner that is consistent with that statement. If it’s true that it’s possible to believe almost anything, then why are we always arguing and fighting with each other? Why isn’t it all right for all of us to express our lives in a way that reflects what we have learned to believe?
如果外部環境有無數種組合方法表達自己，那麽就有無數個信念來說明我們存在的本質。其實就是說我們要學的東西太多了。要想總體評價一下人性的本質，我可以說我們的生活和這種說法還是不一致。如果說任何事都是有可能發生的，那麽為什麽會有那麽多爭吵和鬥爭呢？我們為什麽不可以真實地表達自己的想法呢？
There has to be something behind our relentless attempt to convince others of the validity of our beliefs and to deny the validity of theirs. Consider that every conflict, from the smallest to the largest, from the least to the most significant, whether between individuals, cultures, societies, or nations, is always the result of conflicting beliefs. What characteristics of our beliefs make us intolerant of divergent beliefs? In some cases, we are so intolerant that we are willing to kill each other to get our point across.
我們叫別人相信我們的信念，並拒絕別人的信念，這背後有無情的企圖。想想每一件衝突事件，不管是小的還是大的，不管是不重要的還是最重要的，不管是不是個人間的、文化間的、社會間的或國家間的，總是由衝突的信念造成的。是什麽導致了我們的信念無法接受不同的信念？有時候，為了證明我們是對的，我們就算殺了對方也要把自己的信念表達出來。
My personal theory is that beliefs are not only structured energy, but also energy that seems to be conscious, at least to the extent of having some degree of awareness. Otherwise, how can we account for our ability to recognize on the outside what is on the inside? How would we know our expectations are being fulfilled? How would we know when they are not? How would we know we are being confronted with information or circumstances that contradict what we believe? The only explanation I have is that each individual belief has to have some quality of either awareness or self-awareness that causes it to function as it does.
我個人是這麽認為的，信念不但是結構能量，而且能量是有意識的，至少是有一定程度的意識。否則，我們如何有能力根據外麵而知道內部情況？我們如何知道期望會被實現？我們如何知道期望不會被實現？我們如何知道信息或環境和我們相信的東西是矛盾的？我唯一的解釋是，每個人的信念都有一定程度的意識或自我意識讓信念發生作用。
The idea of energy that has some degree of awareness may be difficult for many of you to accept. But there are several observations we can make about our individual and collective natures that support die possibility. First, everyone wants to be believed. It doesn’t matter what the belief is; the experience of being believed feels good. I think these positive feelings are universal, meaning that they apply to everyone. Conversely, no one likes to be disbelieved; it doesn’t feel good. If I said, “I don’t believe you,” the negative feeling that would resonate throughout your body and mind is also universal. By the same token, none of us likes to have our beliefs challenged. The challenge feels like an attack. Everyone, regardless of the belief, seems to respond in the same way: The typical response is to argue, defend ourselves (our beliefs), and, depending on the situation, attack back.
很多人很難接受能量有一定程度意識的說法。但是有一些個人和集體的行為可以支持這個觀點。首先，每個人都願意被別人相信。無論是什麽信念，被別人相信的感覺很好。我想這種積極的感覺是普遍的，也就是說對任何人都是如此。相反，沒有人願意別人不相信他，那種感覺不好。如果我說：“我不相信你”，消極的感覺就會傳遍你的全身和你的思想，這也是普遍的現象。同理，我們不喜歡別人挑戰我們的信念，這種挑戰就像是攻擊。每個人，無論他的信念是什麽，反應都是一樣的：典型的反應是吵架，為自己辯護（我們的信念），根據情況不同，還會還擊。
When expressing ourselves, we seem to like being listened to. If we sense our audience isn’t paying attention, how does it feel? Not good! Again, I think this response is universal. Conversely, why is it so difficult to be a good listener? Because to be a good listener, we actually have to listen, without thinking about how we are going to express ourselves the moment we can either politely or rudely interrupt the person who’s speaking. What’s the compelling force behind our inability to listen without waiting to interrupt?
當我們表達自己時，我們喜歡別人傾聽。如果我們發現聽眾沒有在用心聽，我們感覺如何？感覺不好！我再次認為這個反應是普遍存在的現象。相反，為什麽成為一個好的聽眾那麽難？因為要成為好的聽眾，我們就必須聽，不能無理地打斷別人的講話以表達自己的觀點。為什麽我們在傾聽的時候喜歡打斷別人呢？
Don’t we like being with people with similar beliefs, because it feels comfortable and secure? Don’t we avoid people with dissimilar or conflicting beliefs, because it feels uncomfortable or even threatening? The bottom line implication is, the moment we acquire a belief, it seems to take on a life of its own, causing us to recognize and be attracted to its likeness and repelled by anything that is opposite or contradictory. Considering the vast number of divergent beliefs that exist, if these feelings of attraction or comfort and being repelled or threatened are universal, then each belief must somehow be conscious of its existence, and this conscious, structured energy must behave in characteristic ways that are common to all of us.
我們喜歡和有相同信念的人在一起，因為這樣舒服安全，是不是？我們不喜歡和不同信念的人在一起，因為感覺不舒服，甚至有威脅，是不是？也就是說，一旦我們有了一個信念，我們就希望終生擁有，吸引相同信念，排擠不同信念。考慮到有大量的不同信念存在，如果這種吸引相同的排擠不同的信念也是普遍的現象，那麽信念一定是有意識的，這種意識以能量的形式組織起來，用我們熟知的方式運作。
THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF
信念的基本特點
There are three basic characteristics you need to understand in order to effectively install the five fundamental truths about trading at a functional level in your mental environment:
為了給你的心理環境安裝5個基本的交易事實，你要了解3個基本的特點：
1. Beliefs seem to take on a life of their own and, therefore, resist any force that would alter their present form.
2. All active beliefs demand expression.
3. Beliefs keep on working regardless of whether or not we are consciously aware of their existence in our mental environment.
1. 信念似乎有生命，因此，它會拒絕想改變它們形態的力量。
2. 所有活躍的信念都需要表達出來。
3. 無論我們是否意識到我們心理環境裏的信念，信念會一直在工作。
1. Beliefs resist any force that would alter their present form. We may not understand the underlying dynamics of how beliefs maintain their structural integrity, but we can observe that they do so, even in the face of extreme pressure or force. Throughout human history, there are many examples of people whose belief in some issue or cause was so powerful that they chose to endure indignities, torture, and death rather than express themselves in a way that violated their beliefs. This is certainly a demonstration of just how powerful beliefs can be and the degree to which they can resist any attempt to be altered or violated in the slightest way.
1. 信念會拒絕想改變它們形態的任何力量。我們也許不了解信念維護自己整體性的力量，但是能我們看見信念在超級壓力下會這麽做。在人類曆史上，有很多例子，人們的信念太強烈，他可以忍受屈辱、折磨和死亡，也不願意違反自己的信念。這當然說明了信念多麽有力量，它們可以拒絕任何想改變它們或不利的企圖。
Beliefs seem to be composed of a type of energy or force that naturally resists any other force that would cause them to exist in any form other than their present form. Does this mean that they can’t be altered? Absolutely not! It just means that we have to understand how to work with them. Beliefs can be altered, but not in the way that most people may think. I believe that once a belief has been formed, it cannot be destroyed. In other words, there is nothing we can do that would cause one or more of our beliefs to cease to exist or to evaporate as if they never existed at all. This assertion is founded in a basic law of physics. According to Albert Einstein and others in the scientific community, energy can neither be created nor destroyed; it can only be transformed. If beliefs are energy - structured, conscious energy that is aware of its existence - then this same principle of physics can be applied to beliefs, meaning, if we try to eradicate them, it’s not going to work.
信念似乎是由一種力量組成，這種力量會反抗任何想改變它們現在形態的力量。是不是說信念就無法改變了？絕對不是！這隻是意味著我們要知道如何和信念一起工作。信念可以被改變，但不是用大多數人想象中的方法。我認為一旦信念被建立了，就無法毀滅它。換句話說，我們無法讓我們的信念消失或蒸發，就像它們從來沒有出現過一樣，這是辦不到的。這個斷言是根據物理基本定律來的。阿爾伯特•愛因斯坦和其他科學家說，能量既不能被創造，也不能被毀滅，它隻能被轉換。如果信念是能量——有結構的，有意識的，知道自己存在的能量——那麽這個同樣的物理定律也可以用到信念上，也就是說，我們無法徹底根除信念。
If you knew someone or something was trying to destroy you, how would you respond? You would defend yourself, fight back, and possibly become even stronger than you were before you knew of the threat. Each individual belief is a component of what we consider to be our identity. Isn’t it reasonable to expect that, if threatened, each individual belief would respond in a way that was consistent with how all the parts respond collectively?
如果你知道什麽人或什麽事要毀了你，你會如何反應？你會自衛還擊，有可能為此變得更加強壯，甚至你自己都沒想到你會如此強壯。每個信念都是我們身份的一部分元素。如果受到了威脅，我們每個信念的反應會和整體的反應一致，這麽想是不是很合理？
The same principle holds true if we try to act as if a particularly troublesome belief doesn’t exist. If you woke up one morning and everyone you knew ignored you and acted as if you didn’t exist, how would you respond? It probably wouldn’t be long before you grabbed someone and got right in their face to try to force them to acknowledge you. Again, if purposely ignored, each individual belief will act in the very same way. It will find a way to force its presence into our conscious thought process or behavior.
如果我們假裝一個討厭的信念不存在，我們的反應也是一樣。如果你早上醒來，發現所有人都當你不存在一樣，你有什麽反應？你可能很快抓住一個人，逼著他讓他承認認識你。再次說明，如果別人有意要忽視你，每個信念的反應都是一樣的，它會通過我們的思維或行為找到一個自我表達的方式。
The easiest and most effective way to work with our beliefs is to gently render them inactive or nonfunctional by drawing the energy out of them. I call this process de-activation. After de-activation, the original structure of the belief remains intact, so technically it hasn’t changed. The difference is that the belief no longer has any energy. Without energy, it doesn’t have the potential to act as a force on our perception of information or on our behavior.
最簡單最有效的和我們的信念保持一致的方法是讓它們不再活躍，或去除它們的能量，讓它們不起作用。我把這個過程叫做去除活躍性。去除活躍性以後，信念的原始結構沒變，所以從技術上說，它沒有改變；不同的是信念不再具有能量了。沒有能量，它就不會影響我們的認知和行為。
Here is a personal illustration: As a young child, I was taught to believe in both Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. In my mental system, both of these are perfect examples of what are now inactive, nonfunctional beliefs. However, even though they are inactive, they still exist inside my mental system, only now they exist as concepts with no energy. If you recall from the last chapter, I defined beliefs as a combination of sensory experience and words that form an energized concept. The energy can be drawn out of the concept, but the concept itself remains intact, in its original form. However, without energy, it no longer has the potential to act on my perception of information or on my behavior.
這是我個人的經曆：我小時候被告知要相信聖誕老人，同時我還相信牙仙。在我的心理係統中，這兩個信念都是不活躍的，不起作用的信念。然而，即使它們是不活躍的，它們還存在於我的心理係統中，隻是它們現在沒有能量。如果你還記得上一章，我對信念是這樣定義的，信念是感官體驗和詞匯以能量的形式組成的概念。能量可以從概念中拿出來，但是概念本身沒有變化，還是原來的形式。然而，沒有了能量，它就再也不會影響我的認識和我的行為。
So, as I’m sitting here typing into my computer, if someone came up to me and said that Santa Claus was at the door, how do you think I would define and interpret this information? I would treat it as being irrelevant or a joke, of course. However, if I were five years old and my mother told me that Santa Claus was at the front door, her words would have instantly tapped me into a huge reservoir of positively charged energy that would have compelled me to jump up and run to the front door as fast as I could. Nothing would have been able to stop me. I would have overcome any obstacle in my path.
現在，我正對著電腦打字，如果有人來告訴我，說聖誕老人在門口，你認為我會如何定義和解讀這個信息？我會覺得這是沒有意義的話，或者是開玩笑。然而，如果我隻有5歲，我媽告訴我聖誕老人在門口，她的話會立即激活我巨大的積極能量，我會盡快衝去開門。沒有什麽能攔住我，我可以消除一切阻擋我的東西。
At some point, my parents told me Santa Claus didn’t exist. Of course, my first reaction was disbelief. I didn’t believe them, nor did I want to believe them. Eventually, they convinced me. However, the process of convincing me did not destroy my belief in Santa Claus or cause it not to exist any longer; it just took all the energy out of the belief. The belief was transformed into a nonfunctional, inactive concept about how the world works. I’m not sure where all that energy went, but I know that some of it was transferred to a belief that Santa Claus doesn’t exist. Now I have two contradictory distinctions about the nature of the world that exist in my mental system: one, Santa exists; two, Santa doesn’t exist. The difference between them is in the amount of energy they contain. The first has virtually no energy; the second has energy. So from a functional perspective, there is no contradiction or conflict.
有時候，父母告訴我聖誕老人並不存在。當然了，第一次我不相信，我不相信他們，也不願意相信他們。最終，我還是相信了。然而，雖然我相信他們了，但是我對聖誕老人的信念還在，隻是把信念中的能量拿走了。這個信念變成了一個沒有功能，不活躍的概念，這個概念說明世界是如何運作的。我不知道能量去了哪裏，但我知道部分能量轉到了聖誕老人不存在的信念。此時，我的心理係統裏麵有了兩個矛盾的對世界本質的看法：其一，聖誕老人存在；其二，聖誕老人不存在。它們的區別在於能量的不同，第一個幾乎沒有能量，第二個有能量。所以從功能的角度來看，它們之間並沒有矛盾，也沒有衝突。
I propose that, if it’s possible to render one belief inactive, then it’s possible to de-activate any belief, despite the fact that all beliefs seem to resist any force that would alter their present form. The secret to effectively changing our beliefs is in understanding and, consequently, believing that we really aren’t changing our beliefs; we are simply transferring energy from one concept to another concept, one that we find more useful in helping us to fulfill our desires or achieve our goals.
我想，雖然所有的信念都會反抗想改變他們形態的力量，但是既然可以讓一個信念變得不活躍，那麽就有可能讓任何信念變得不活躍。有效改變信念的秘訣是要相信我們並不是真的改變了我們的信念，我們隻是轉移了能量，從一個概念轉移到另一個概念，這個接受能量的概念可以幫助我們實現願望或目標。
2. All active beliefs demand expression. Beliefs fall into two basic categories: active and inactive. The distinction between the two is simple. Active beliefs are energized; they have enough energy to act as a force on our perception of information and on our behavior. An inactive belief is just the opposite. It is a belief, that for any number of reasons, no longer has energy, or has so little energy that it’s no longer able to act as a force on how we perceive information or how we express ourselves.
2. 所有活躍的信念需要表達自己。信念分為兩組：活躍的和不活躍的。兩者的區別很簡單。活躍的信念有能量，它可以影響我們的認知和行為。不活躍的信念正好相反。它是信念，但由於多種原因，不再有能量，或者是隻有一點點能量，它不會影響我們認知信息，也不會影響我們如何表達自己。
When I say that all active beliefs demand expression, I don’t mean to imply that every belief in our mental environment is demanding to express itself simultaneously. For example, if I ask you to think about what’s wrong with the world today, the word “wrong” would bring to your mind ideas about the nature of the world that reflect what you believe to be troubling or disturbing. Unless, of course, there is nothing about the state of the world you find troubling. The point is, if there is something you do believe is wrong, you weren’t necessarily thinking about those ideas before I asked the question; but the moment I did, your beliefs about these issues instantly moved to the forefront of your conscious thinking process. In effect, they demanded to be heard.
當我說所有的活躍的信念都需要表達時，我不是說我們心理環境裏的信念都要同時表達自己。比如，如果我問你，今天全世界有什麽不好的新聞，“不好”這個詞就會進入你的思想，你就會去想這個世界有什麽麻煩或不對的地方。如果你找不到任何問題，你的信念不會有反應。如果你確實發現了什麽不好的新聞，但在我問你之前，你並沒有想到過。當我問你時，你的信念立刻想到了。因此，信念要被呼喚才會發生作用。
I say that beliefs “demand” to be expressed because once something causes us to tap into our beliefs, it seems as if we can’t stop the flood of energy that’s released. This is especially true of emotionally sensitive issues or beliefs we feel particularly passionate about. You might ask, “Why would I want to hold back expressing my beliefs?” There could be several reasons. Consider a scenario in which you’re this person is saying something that you completely disagree with, or even find utterly absurd. Will you express your truth or hold back? That will depend on the beliefs you have about what is proper in such a situation. If your beliefs dictate that speaking up would be inappropriate, and those beliefs have more energy than the ones that are being contradicted, then you’ll probably hold back and not argue openly.
我說信念“要求”表達自己，因為一旦有什麽東西觸動了我們的信念，我們是沒有辦法阻止能量的釋放的。對於敏感的問題或我們容易激動信念，這種情況更明顯。你可能問：“為什麽我要壓抑自己的信念表達？”可能有幾個原因。假如說你在某種場合下可能要說一些你根本不同意的話，甚至是荒謬的話。你是要真實地表達自己，還是控製著不說？這取決與你的信念是否認為在這種場合下說出來比較合適。如果你的信念認為說出來不合適，你的不說出來的信念能量就比說出來的信念能量大，你就會控製著自己不說出來，也不會公開爭論。
You might be looking at this person (the boss) and nodding your head in agreement. But is your mind in agreement? More to the point, is your mind silent? Absolutely not! Your position on the issues being presented are effectively countering each point the boss is making. In other words, your beliefs are still demanding expression, but they aren’t being expressed externally (in the environment) because other beliefs are acting as a counteracting force. However they will soon find a way to get out, won’t they? As soon as you are out of the situation, you will probably find a way to “unload,” or even spew out your side of the argument. You will probably describe what you had to endure to anyone you think will lend a sympathetic ear. This is an example of how our beliefs demand to be expressed when they are in conflict with the external environment.
你也許會看著某個人（老板）並點頭表示同意，但是你的思想同意嗎？更重要的是，你的思想平靜嗎？絕對不平靜！你的觀點完全和老板相反。換句話說，你的信念仍然要需要表達，但（在這種情況下）它們不能被表達出來，因為其它的信念有反作用力不讓你表達出來。然而，它們很快就能找到出路，是不是？一旦離開了這個環境，你可能會知道 “釋放”能量的方法，或者直接把反麵觀點說出來。你甚至會向別人訴苦，讓別人同情你。這就是信念需要表達，卻被外部衝突環境壓抑的例子。
But what happens when one or more of our beliefs are in conflict with our intents, goals, dreams, wants, or desires? The implications of such a conflict can have a profound effect on our trading. As we have already learned, beliefs create distinctions in how the external environment can express itself. Distinctions, by definition, are boundaries. Human consciousness, on the other hand, seems to be larger than the sum total of everything we have learned to believe. This “larger than” quality of human consciousness gives us the ability to think in any direction we choose, either inside or outside of the boundaries imposed by our beliefs. Thinking outside of the boundaries of our beliefs is commonly referred to as creative thinking. When we purposely choose to question a belief (question what we know), and sincerely desire an answer, we make our minds available to receive a “brilliant idea,” “inspiration,” or “solution” to the issue at hand.
但是，如果多個信念和我們的目標、夢想、需求或欲望發生了衝突怎麽辦？這種衝突會對我們的交易有很嚴重的影響。我們已經知道了，信念會對外部環境表達自己的方式產生限製。根據定義限製就是界定範圍。人類的意識似乎是最大的東西。這種“最大的東西”能讓我們在任意方向思考，無論是在信念規定的範圍以內，還是在信念規定的範圍以外，我們都能縱橫馳騁。思考信念規定範圍以外的東西就是創造性思考。當我們懷疑一個信念（懷疑已知的），並渴望答案時，我們的思想就會準備接收到“美好的想法”、“啟發”或“解決方案”。
Creativity, by definition, brings forth something that didn’t previously exist. When we put our minds into a creative thinking mode, we will (by definition, automatically) receive ideas or thoughts that are outside of anything that already exists in our rational mind as a belief or memory. As far as I know, there is no consensus among artists, inventors, or the religious or scientific communities as to exactly where creatively generated information comes from. However, what I do know is that creativity seems to be limitless and without boundaries.
根據定義，創造性就是帶來一些以前不存在的東西。當我們的思想進入創造性思考模式時，我們會（根據定義，自動地）接受我們信念或記憶之外的思想和想法。據我所知，藝術家、發明者、宗教人士或科學界都無法一致地解釋創造性的信息來自哪裏。然而，我知道創造性看起來是沒有限製，沒有範圍的。
If there are any limits on the ways we can think, we certainly haven’t found them yet. Consider the staggering pace at which technology has developed in the last 50 years alone. Every invention or development in the evolution of humanity was born in the minds of people who were willing to think outside the boundaries dictated by what they had learned to believe.
如果說我們的思考方式有任何限製，我們當然還沒有找到這些限製。想想過去50年來科技發展的步履蹣跚。任何發明或人類進步都是人類思維打破限製的結果。
If all of us have the inherent ability to think creatively (and I believe that we do), then we also have the potential to encounter what I call a “creative experience.” I define a creative experience as the experience of anything new or outside the boundaries imposed by our beliefs. It could be a new sight - something we’ve never seen before, but from the environment’s perspective was always there. Or we could experience a new sound, smell, taste, or touch. Creative experiences, like creative thoughts, inspirations, hunches, and brilliant ideas, can occur as a surprise or can be the result of our conscious direction. In either case, when we experience them we can be confronted with a major psychological dilemma. A creative occurrence, whether in the form of a thought or an experience, can cause us to be attracted to or desire something that is in direct conflict with one or more of our beliefs.
如果我們天生都能創造性地思考（我相信我們有這個能力），那麽我們也會遇到所謂的“創造性的體驗”。我把任何新的體驗或衝破我們信念的體驗定義為創造性的體驗。它可以是一個新的景點——我們沒見過的，但是從環境的角度來說，它一直在那裏。或者是我們聽到的新聲音，聞到的新氣味，嚐到的新味道或摸到的新東西。創造性體驗就像創造性的思維、期望、直覺和偉大的思想一樣，可以是突然出現的，也可以是意識指導的結果。不管是哪種情況，當我們麵對時，我們就遇到了一個心理兩難。當創造性發生時，無論是思想的形態，還是體驗的形態，都會導致我們渴望與我們信念直接發生衝突的東西。
To illustrate the point, let’s return to the example of the boy and dog. Recall that the boy has had several painful experiences with dogs. The first experience was real from the environment’s perspective. The others, however, were the result of how his mind processed information (based on the operation of the association and pain-avoidance mechanisms). The end result is that he experiences fear every time he encounters a dog. Let’s suppose that the boy was a toddler when he had his first negatively charged experience. As he grows up and begins associating specific words and concepts with his memories, he will form a belief about the nature of dogs. It would be reasonable to assume that he adopted a belief something like, “All dogs are dangerous.”
為了說明這點，讓我們回到小孩和狗的例子。小孩和狗有幾次痛苦的遭遇。第一體驗從環境的角度來看是真實的。然而，其它的體驗取決與他的思維如何處理信息（根據他的聯想能力和痛苦回避係統的不同）。結果是，他每次遇到狗都害怕。讓我們假設他第一次的消極體驗發生在他蹣跚學步時。當他長大時，他開始把特定的單詞和概念聯係記憶起來，他會對狗的本性形成一個信念。不難想象，他對狗的信念是：“所有狗都是危險的”。
With the use of the word “all,” the boy’s belief is structured in a way that assures that he will avoid all dogs. He has no reason to question this belief, because every experience has confirmed and reinforced its validity. However, he (and everyone else on the planet) is susceptible to a creative experience. Under normal circumstances, the boy will do everything possible to make sure he does not encounter a dog. But what if something unexpected and unintended occurs?
用了單詞“所有的”，這個小孩的信念就決定了他要回避所有的狗。他沒有理由懷疑自己的信念，因為他每次的經曆都確認並加強了信念的有效性。然而，他（和地球上的任何人）有可能受創造性體驗的影響。通常情況下，這個小孩會盡力回避狗。但是，如果意料之外的事發生了，會如何？
Suppose the boy is walking with his parents and, as a result, feels safe and protected. Now, suppose he and his parents come to a blind corner and cannot see what is on the other side. They encounter a scene in which several children of about the same age as the boy are playing with some dogs and, furthermore, they are obviously having a great deal of fun. This is a creative experience. The boy is confronted with indisputable information that what he believes about the nature of dogs isn’t true. What happens now?
假如說這個小孩和父母走在一起，這樣他就感到安全，有人保護。假如他們此時走到一個拐角，看不見另一邊是什麽。然後他們看到有一群和這個小孩一樣大的孩子在和一些狗一起玩耍，而且玩得很開心。這就是創造性的體驗。這個小孩遇到了無法爭辯的信息，那就是他對狗的本性的信念不是真的。那會如何？
First, the experience was not at the boy’s conscious direction. He didn’t make a decision to willingly expose himself to information that contradicted what he believed to be true. We might call this an inadvertent creative experience, because the external environment forced him to confront other possibilities that he didn’t believe existed. Second, the experience of seeing other children playing with dogs and not getting hurt will throw his mind into a state of confusion. After the confusion wears off, meaning as he begins to accept the possibility that not all dogs are dangerous, several scenarios are possible.
首先，這次體驗不是這個小孩的意識決定的。他並沒有想到要去接觸和他的信念矛盾的信息。因為是外部環境逼他麵對他不相信的可能性事件，我們可以說這是無意中的創造性體驗。第二，他看見其他小孩和狗一起玩，且沒受傷，這次經曆讓他進入困惑的狀態。當他不再困惑時，他就開始接受這個可能性，那就是並非所有的狗都是危險的。
Seeing other children his own age (with whom he could strongly identify) having such a great time playing with dogs could cause the boy to decide that he wants to be like the other children and have fun with dogs, too. If that’s the case, this inadvertent creative encounter has caused him to become attracted to express himself in a way that he formerly didn’t believe was possible (interacting with dogs). In fact, the notion was so impossible that it wouldn’t have even occurred to him to consider it. Now, he not only considers it, he desires it.
看見和自己一樣大的小孩（他會嚴重關注這點）和狗玩的那麽開心，他自己也想和狗玩。如果是這樣，那麽這次無意中的創造性相遇導致他想用以前自己以為不可能的方式（和狗玩）來表達自己。實際上，這個想法太不可能了，他以前是不會這麽想的；現在，他不但想，還非常想。
Will he be able to express himself in a way that is consistent with his desire? The answer to this question is a matter of energy dynamics. There are two forces within the boy that are in direct conflict with each other, competing for expression: his belief that “all dogs are dangerous” and his desire to have fun and be like the other children. What he will do the next time he encounters a dog will be determined by which has more energy: his belief or his desire.
他會實現自己的欲望並表達自己嗎？答案和能量有關。小孩的內部有兩種互相衝突的力量，都掙著要表達自己：“所有狗都是危險的”的信念和像其他小孩一樣和狗玩耍的欲望。當他下次遇到狗時的反應取決於哪個能量更大：他的信念或他的欲望。
Given the intensity of the energy in his belief that “All dogs are dangerous,” we can reasonably assume that his belief will have far more energy than his desire. If that’s the case, then he will find his next encounter with a dog very frustrating. Even though he may want to touch or pet the dog, he’ll find that he can’t interact with it in any way. The word “all” in his belief will act as a paralyzing force, preventing him from fulfilling his desire. He might be well aware of the fact that the dog he wants to pet is not dangerous and won’t hurt him; but he won’t be able to pet it until the balance of energy tips in favor of his desire.
根據“所有狗都是危險的”信念中能量的密度不同，我們可以說他信念的能量比欲望多。如果是這樣，他會發現下次遇到狗時很受挫折。即使他想摸摸狗或拍拍狗，但是他還是無法和狗溝通。他信念中的“所有”麻痹了他，不準他實現自己的欲望。也許他知道這隻狗沒有危險，不會傷害他，但是如果能量沒有轉移到欲望的話，他還是不敢拍拍狗。
If the boy genuinely wants to interact with dogs, he will have to overcome his fear. This means that he will have to de-activate his belief that all dogs are dangerous so he can properly install a belief about dogs that is more consistent with his desire. We know that dogs can express themselves in a wide range of ways, from loving and gentle to mean and nasty. However, very few dogs on a percentage basis fall into the mean and nasty category. A good belief for the boy to adopt, then, would be something like, “Most dogs are friendly, but some can be mean and nasty.” This belief would allow him to learn to recognize characteristics and behavior patterns that will tell him which dogs he can play with and which ones to avoid.
如果這個小孩非常想和狗溝通，他必須克服自己的恐懼。他必須解除“所有狗都是危險的”這個信念的活躍性，然後安裝一個新的和他的欲望一致的信念。我們知道狗表達自己的方式有很多種，有可愛的、可親的、凶狠的和惡毒的；然而凶狠的和惡毒的狗很少。這個小孩應該采用的信念應該是：“大部分狗都是友好的，但是有些狗是凶狠的惡毒的。”這個信念會讓他去區分不同的特點和行為模式，這樣就知道應該和哪隻狗玩耍，應該回避哪隻狗。
However, the larger issue is, how can the boy de-activate the “all” in the belief that “All dogs are dangerous” so he can overcome his fear? Remember that all beliefs naturally resist any force that would alter their present form, but, as I indicated above, the appropriate approach is not to try to alter the belief, but rather to draw the energy out of it and channel that energy into another belief that is better suited to our purposes. To de-activate the concept the word “all” represents, the boy will have to create a positively charged experience with a dog; at some point, he will have to step through his fear and touch one.
然而，有一個大問題，為了克服他的恐懼心理，如何去除“所有狗都是危險的”信念裏麵的“所有”？記住，所有信念天生就會對抗改變它們現在形態的力量。但是，正如我上麵所說，合適的方法不是改變信念，而是把能量轉移到其它對實現目標有好處的信念中。為了去除“所有”代表的所有概念，小孩必須創造一個積極的和狗的體驗，有時候，他必須想辦法克服恐懼心理，去摸一隻狗。
Doing this might require a great deal of effort on the boy’s part over a considerable amount of time. Early in the process, his new realization about dogs might be strong enough only to allow him to be in the presence of a dog, at a distance, and not run away. However, each encounter with a dog, even at a distance, that doesn’t result in a negative outcome will draw more and more of the negative energy out of his belief that “All dogs are dangerous.” Eventually, each new positive experience will allow him to close the gap between himself and a dog, little by little, to the point that he can actually touch one. From an energy dynamics perspective, he will be able to touch a dog when his desire to do so is at least one degree greater in intensity than his belief that all dogs are dangerous. The moment he actually does touch a dog, it will have the effect of drawing most of the remaining negative energy out of the “all” concept and transfer it to a belief that reflects his new experience.
這個小孩要做到這點，需要很多努力和時間。一開始，他對狗的認識隻能讓他麵對狗，不跑開。然而，每次遇到狗，即使是在遠處，結果也是積極的，會慢慢地把“所有狗都是危險的”這個信念的消極能量轉移走。最終，每一次的體驗都會讓他和狗的距離拉近，一點一點地，最終他就可以摸狗了。從能量的角度來看，隻要他的這個欲望的能量比所有狗都是危險的信念的能量要多的話，他就會摸狗了。當他真的摸到狗時，他就會把“所有”概念裏麵的剩餘的消極能量全部轉移到他的反應新體驗的信念裏麵。
Although it’s probably not that common, there are people who, for various reasons, are motivated enough to purposely put themselves through the above described process. However, they may not be consciously aware of the dynamics involved. People who work through a childhood fear of this magnitude usually do so somewhat haphazardly over a period of years, without knowing for sure exactly how they did it (unless they seek and get competent professional help). Later on, as adults, if they are asked or if they happen to encounter a situation that reminds them of their past (for instance, observing a child who is terrified of dogs), they typically characterize the process they went through as “I remember when I was afraid of dogs, but I grew out of it.”
雖然這個例子不是很普遍，但是有些人因為各種原因，確實激勵自己體驗了以上的過程；然而，也許他們並不知道內在的動力。人們在小時候如果經曆了這種程度的恐懼感，通常會在隨後很多年都會感到恐懼，他們在很多時候並不知道自己為何會有恐懼感（除非尋求了專業的幫助）。後來，當他們成人後，如果有人問他或者是什麽事勾起了他對過去的回憶（比如，看見一個小孩怕狗），正好想起了過去，他們就會說“我記得過去我怕狗，但現在已經走出了這個陰影”。
The end result of the first scenario was that the boy worked through his fear by de-activating his limiting belief about the nature of dogs. This allowed him to express himself in a way that he finds pleasing and that otherwise would have been impossible.
第一種情況的結局是，小孩通過去除對狗的信念的活躍性而不再感到害怕。這樣，他就可以快樂地表達自己了，否則，就沒有這個可能。
The second scenario that could result from the child’s inadvertent creative experience with dogs is that he isn’t attracted to the possibility of playing with a dog. In other words, he could not care less about being like the other children or interacting with dogs. In this case, his belief that all dogs are dangerous and his new realization that all dogs are not dangerous will exist in his mental environment as contradictory concepts. This is an example of what I call an active contradiction, when two active beliefs are in direct conflict with each other, both demanding expression. In this example, the first belief exists at a core level in the boy’s mental environment, with a great deal of negatively charged energy. The second belief is at a more superficial level, and has very little positively charged energy.
第二種情況的結局是，小孩無意中和狗的創造性體驗並沒有讓小孩對狗產生興趣。換句話說，他不希望像其他小孩那樣和狗玩耍，或者是他不想和狗交涉。在這種情況下，所有狗都是危險的信念和並非所有狗都是危險的新認識會在他的心理環境裏形成互相矛盾的概念，這兩個信念互相發生衝突，都想表達自己。本例中，第一個信念在小孩的心理環境裏處於核心層次，有大量的消極能量。第二個信念是表麵的，有少量的積極能量。
The dynamics of this situation are interesting, and extremely important. We have stated that beliefs control our perception of information. Under normal circumstances, the boy would have been perceptually blinded to the possibility of interacting with dogs, but the experience of seeing other children playing with them created a positively charged concept in his mental environment that dogs are not all dangerous; some can be friendly. However, he hasn’t done anything to de-activate the “all” in his belief that “All dogs are dangerous,” and, as far as I know, beliefs have no capacity to de-activate themselves. As a result, beliefs exist in our mental environment from the moment they are born to the moment we die, unless we consciously take steps to deactivate them. However, in this scenario, the boy has no desire and consequently no motivation to step through his fear.
這個過程下麵的動力很有趣，也超級重要。我們已經說了信念控製我們對信息的解讀。通常情況下，這個小孩沒意識到要和狗溝通，但是看見其他小孩和狗玩耍時就會在他的心理環境裏產生了積極的概念，那就是並非所有的狗都是危險的，有些狗是友好的。然而，他並沒有去除“所有狗都是危險的”信念中的“所有”的活躍性，據我所知，信念沒有能力自己解除自己的活躍性。結果是，從出生到死亡，信念都在我們的心理環境裏麵，除非我們采取措施去除它們的活躍性。然而，在本例中，小孩沒有欲望，從而沒有動機去克服他的恐懼感。
Therefore, the boy is left with an active contradiction where his minimally charged belief that not all dogs are dangerous gives him the ability to perceive the possibility of playing with a dog, but his powerfully charged belief that all dogs are dangerous still causes him to experience some level of fear every time he encounters a dog (maybe not enough fear to cause him to run in terror, because some of that fear will be offset by the other belief, but there will certainly be enough fear to cause a great deal of discomfort).
因此，這個小孩微弱的信念知道並非所有的狗都是危險的，讓他有能力認識到和狗玩耍是可能的；但是他強大的信念認為所有的狗都是危險的，總是讓他遇到狗就害怕（也許不會由害怕變成恐慌，因為有些害怕的感覺被其它信念抵消了，但還是有足夠的害怕的感覺讓他感到極度不安）。
The ability to “see” and consequently know that a situation is not dangerous, but at the same time find ourselves immobilized with fear, can be quite baffling if we don’t understand that what we discover as the result of thinking creatively or realize from an inadvertent creative experience doesn’t necessarily have enough energy to become a dominant force in our mental environment. In other words, our new awareness or discovery could very well have enough energy to act as a credible force on our perception of information, thereby causing us to perceive possibilities that would otherwise be invisible; but it might not have enough energy to act as a credible force on our behavior. In making this statement, I am operating out of the assumption that it takes more energy to act or express ourselves than the amount of energy it takes to observe something.
如果不明白創造性的思維或無意中的創造性體驗並不能在我們的心理環境產生足夠的能量以成為主導力量，那麽有能力“看見”並知道自己不危險，但同時發現自己嚇呆了，這確實令人喪氣。換句話說，我們的新意識或發現可以有足夠的能量以影響我們對信息的認知，因此可以看見以前看不見的可能性事件，但是這個能量也許不足以成為改變我們行為的力量。在這個結論中，我假定改變行動的能量要比改變認知的能量大。
On the other hand, new awareness and discoveries instantly and effortlessly become dominant forces if there’s nothing inside us that’s in conflict with them. But if there are conflicting beliefs and we aren’t willing to de-activate the conflicting forces (expending some effort), especially if they’re negatively charged, then acting on what we’ve discovered will be a struggle at the very least, and perhaps down right impossible.
另一方麵，如果沒有內部反麵力量，新的意識和發現會慢慢地變成主導力量。但是，如果有衝突的信念存在，且我們不想去除衝突信念的活躍性（需要一些努力），特別是去除消極的信念的活躍性，那麽我們要根據新的意識和發現去做事就非常困難，甚至是不可能的。
What I have just described is the psychological dilemma that virtually every trader has to resolve. Let’s say you have a firm grasp of the nature of probabilities and, as a result, you “know” that the next trade is simply another trade in a series of trades that has a probable outcome. Yet you find you’re still afraid to put that next trade on, or you’re still susceptible to several of the fear-based trading errors we’ve discussed in previous chapters. Remember that the underlying cause of fear is the potential to define and interpret market information as threatening. What is the source of our potential to interpret market information as threatening? Our expectations! When the market generates information that doesn’t conform to what we expect, the up and down tics seem to take on a threatening quality (become negatively charged). Consequently, we experience fear, stress, and anxiety. What is the underlying source of our expectations? Our beliefs.
我上麵說的是心理兩難，每個交易者都必須解決這個兩難的問題。比如，你完全了解了概率，結果是，你“知道”下一步交易也是一係列有可能結果交易中的一筆交易。然而，你發現你還是害怕進行交易，或者是容易犯我們之前幾章說的和恐懼有關的交易錯誤。記住，害怕的根本原因是把市場信息定義解讀為有威脅的。我們把市場信息解讀為具有危險性的根源是什麽？根源是我們的期望！如果市場產生的信息和我們的期望不一致，那麽漲跌看起來就具有威脅性（消極的）。結果是，我們就會感到害怕、有壓力和焦急。我們期望的根源是什麽？是我們的信念。
In light of what you now understand about the nature of beliefs, if you are still experiencing negative states of mind when you trade, you can assume there’s a conflict between what you “know” about probable outcomes and any number of other beliefs in your mental environment that are arguing (demanding expression) for something else. Keep in mind that all active beliefs demand expression, even if we don’t want them to. To think in probabilities, you have to believe that every moment in the market is unique, or more specifically, that every edge has a unique outcome.
現在你已經明白了信念的本質，如果你在交易時還受消極思想的影響，你可以認為是你“知道”的可能結果和其它不同信念在你的心理環境中爭吵不休（需要表達出來）。記住，即使我們不希望活躍的信念去表達自己，但是所有活躍的信念還是要去表達自己。要想用概率思考，你必須相信市場中的每個時刻都是獨特的，更具體地說，每個優勢都會有獨特的結果。
When you believe at a functional level that every edge has a unique outcome (meaning that it’s a dominant belief without any other beliefs arguing for something different), you will experience a state of mind that is free of fear, stress, and anxiety when you trade. It really can’t work any other way. A unique outcome is not something we have already experienced, therefore it is not something we can already know. If it were known, it could not be defined as unique. When you believe that you don’t know what is going to happen next, what exactly are you expecting from the market? If you said “I don’t know,” you are absolutely right. If you believe that something will happen and that you don’t need to know exactly what that something is to make money, then where’s the potential to define and interpret market information as threatening and painful? If you said “There is none,” you are absolutely right again.
當你相信每個優勢都有獨特的結果（意味著這是一個主要信念，不再有其它信念吵來吵去），你在交易時，你的思維狀態就不再害怕，不再有壓力，不再焦急。肯定會這樣的。獨特的結果不是我們已經經曆的懂，因此也不是我們提前知道的東西。如果是我們已經知道的東西，那麽這個東西就不是獨特的。當你不知道下一步會如何時，你究竟還在期待市場做什麽？如果你說：“我不知道”，你絕對是對的。如果你認為有些事會發生，你不必知道具體情況也能賺錢，那麽是什麽要把市場信息定義解讀為有威脅的和痛苦的呢？如果你說“根本沒什麽”，那麽再一次說明你絕對是對的。
Here is one more example of how beliefs demand expression. Let’s look at a situation where a child’s first encounter with a dog was a very positive experience. As a result, he has absolutely no problem interacting with dogs (any dog for that matter), because he has not encountered one that’s unfriendly. Therefore, he has no concept (an energized belief) that it is possible for a dog to inflict any damage or cause him to experience pain.
還有一個例子能說明信念如何要求表達自己。讓我們看看一個小孩和狗的第一次積極的相遇。因為這個沒有遇到過惡犬，所以他和狗的溝通完全沒有問題（任何狗都沒問題）。因此，他沒有概念（有能量的信念），不知道狗可能會傷害他或讓他感到痛苦。
As he learns to associate words with his memories, he will probably acquire a belief along the lines of “all dogs are friendly and fun.” Therefore, every time a dog comes into his field of awareness, this belief will demand expression. From the perspective of someone who has has a negative experience with a dog, it will seem as if this child has an attitude of reckless abandon. If you tried to convince the child that he’ll get bitten someday if he doesn’t exercise caution, his belief will cause him to either discount or completely disregard your advice. His response would be something like “No way!” or “It can’t happen to me.”
當他開始把單詞和記憶聯係起來時，他可能會得到一個這樣的信念：“所有的狗都是友好的，有趣的”。因此，每次遇到一隻狗，他的這個信念就要求表達。對於和和狗有過消極接觸的人來說，似乎這個小孩的態度是不計後果的狂熱。如果你想警告這個小孩，如果他不謹慎點，他遲早會被狗咬的，他的信念要麽低估了你的建議，要麽完全漠視了你的建議。他的反應可能是這樣的：“不可能！”或“這事不會發生在我身上”。
Let’s say at some point in his life he approaches an unfamiliar dog that wants to be left alone. The dog growls. The warning will go unheeded and the dog attacks the boy. From the perspective of the boy’s belief system, he’s just had a creative experience. What effect will this experience have on his belief that “all dogs are friendly”? Will he now be afraid of all dogs as the child in the first example was?
假如說某天他遇到了一隻惡犬，這隻狗正在咆哮著。小孩根本沒注意到狗的警告，這隻狗就攻擊了他。從小孩的信念係統來看，他正好有了創造性體驗。這次體驗對他的“所有狗都是友好的”信念有什麽影響？他現在會不會像第一個例子中的小孩那樣感到害怕？
Unfortunately, the answers to these questions are not cut and dried, because there may be other beliefs, also demanding expression, that don’t have anything specifically to do with dogs that come into play in a situation like this. For example, what if this child has a highly developed belief in betrayal (he believes he’s been betrayed by some very significant people in some very significant situations that have caused him to experience intense emotional pain). If he associates the attack by this one dog as a “betrayal” by dogs in general (in essence a betrayal of his belief in dogs), then he could easily find himself afraid of all dogs. All of the positive energy contained in his original belief could instantly be transformed into negatively charged energy. The boy could justify this shift with a rationalization like “If one dog can betray me, then any dog can.”
不幸地，問題的答案也不是事前準備好的，因為也許有其它信念，也要表達，但這些信念和狗沒有什麽特別關係。比如，如果小孩形成的信念是背叛（在重要場合，他被一些重要人物背叛過，導致他體驗了情緒痛苦），結果如何？如果他認為狗的攻擊就是“背叛”（對狗的信念的背叛），那麽他很容易發現自己怕狗。他原來信念中的所有積極能量很快轉化成了消極能量。這個小孩可以很合理地解釋說：“如果一隻狗背叛了我，那麽任何狗都能背叛我”。
However, I do think this is an extreme and very unlikely occurrence. What is more likely is the word “all” in his original belief will instantly be de-activated and that energy will get transferred to a new belief that better reflects the true nature of dogs. This new experience caused an energy shift that forced him to learn something about the nature of dogs that he otherwise refused to consider possible. His belief in the friendliness of dogs remains intact. He will still play with dogs, but he will now exercise some discretion by consciously looking for signs of friendliness or unfriendliness.
然而，我相信這是極端情況，一般不會發生。可能發生的是原來信念中的單詞“所有”會很快被去除活躍性，能量會被轉移到真實反應狗的信念中。這次新的經曆讓他的能量發生了轉移，逼他去了解過去他曾經拒絕了解的狗的本性。他認為狗是友好的信念沒有變。他仍然和狗玩耍，但他現在會很謹慎，他要確認這隻狗是友好的，還是不友好的。
I think that a fundamental truth about the nature of our existence is every moment in the market, as well as in everyday life, has elements of what we know (similarities) and elements that we don’t or can’t know because we haven’t experienced it yet. Until we actively train our minds to expect a unique outcome, we will continue experiencing only what we know; everything else (other information and possibilities that are not consistent with what we know and expect) will pass us by, unperceived, discounted, distorted, outright denied, or attacked. When you truly believe that you don’t need to know, you will be thinking in probabilities (the market perspective) and will have no reason to block, discount, distort, deny, or attack anything the market is offering about its potential to move in any particular direction.
我想我們存在的基本原因是，在市場中的任意時刻，就像生活一樣，有些因素我們知道，有些因素我們不知道，因為我們還沒有體驗過。除非我們積極地訓練自己的思想接受獨特的結果，否則我們隻會看見自己想看見的東西，其它東西（其它信息和可能性和我們想要的不一致）則被我們忽略了、忽視了、歪曲了、拒絕了或攻擊了。一旦你真的相信了你不必知道，你就會考慮概率（市場的角度），也沒有理由去阻止、忽略、歪曲、拒絕或攻擊市場提供的任何東西，這些東西和市場波動的方向也許是有關係的。
If you are not experiencing the quality of mental freedom implied in that statement, and it is your desire to do so, then you must take an active role in training your mind to believe in the uniqueness of each moment, and you must de-activate any other belief that argues for something different. This process isn’t any different from the one the boy in the first scenario went through, nor is it going to happen by itself. He wanted to interact with dogs without fear, but to do so he had to create a new belief and de-activate the conflicting ones. This is the secret to achieving consistent success as a trader.
如果你沒有體驗過上麵所指的心理自由狀態，而且你想努力做到這點，那麽你必須積極訓練自己的思維相信每個時刻的獨特性，你必須去除其它的不同的信念的活躍性。這個過程和第一種情況裏小孩的經曆沒什麽不同，也不會自己發生。他想不再害怕地和狗溝通，但是要做到這點，他必須製造一個新信念，並去除有衝突的信念的活躍性。這是成為持續一致的成功交易者的秘訣。
3. Beliefs keep on working regardless of whether we are consciously aware of their existence in our mental environment. In other words, we don’t have to actively remember or have conscious access to any particular belief for that belief to act as a force on our perception of information or on our behavior. I know it’s hard to “believe” that something we can’t even remember can still have an impact on our lives. But when you think about it, much of what we learn throughout our lives is stored at an unconscious or subconscious level.
3. 無論我們是否有意識地知道信念存在於我們的心理環境中，信念都會持續發生作用。換句話說，我們並不需要知道或意識到信念，信念都會影響我們認識信息或我們的行為。我知道很難“相信”有什麽我們不記得的東西還在影響我們的生活。但是，當你認真思考時，你會發現我們畢生所經曆的東西都被有意識地，無意識地儲存起來了。
If I asked you to remember each specific skill you had to learn so that you could drive a car with confidence, chances are you wouldn’t remember all the things you needed to concentrate and focus on while you were in the process of learning. The first time I had the opportunity to teach a teenager how to drive, I was absolutely amazed at how much there was to learn, how much of the process I took for granted and no longer thought about at a conscious level.
如果我叫你回憶所有自信開車的技巧，恐怕你早就忘了你當時在學車時的方方麵麵的技術，該關注什麽，該重視什麽，恐怕你並非全部記得。我第一次教一個十幾歲的年輕人開車時，我很吃驚地發現要學的東西太多了，很多程序都要學，但我自己已經無意識地掌握了，所以我想當然地以為開車很簡單，直到教別人時才知道有那麽多東西需要傳授。
Possibly the best example that illustrates this characteristic is people who drive under the influence of alcohol. On any given day or night, there are probably thousands of people who have had so much to drink that they have no idea that they have no conscious awareness of how they drove from point A to point B. It is difficult to imagine how this is possible, unless you consider that driving skills and one’s belief in his ability to drive operate automatically on a much deeper level than waking consciousness.
最能說明這個特點的是醉酒駕車的人。任意一天，任意一個晚上，總會有幾千人喝醉了酒，他們也不知道自己是如何把車從A地開到B地的。開車技術和相信自己能開車的信念同時自動起作用了，它們的層次比清醒有意識的層次還深，如果你不明白這個道理，你是不敢相信人們能醉酒駕車的。
Certainly, some percentage of these drunk drivers get into accidents, but when you compare the accident rate with the estimated number of people driving under the influence of alcohol, it’s remarkable that there aren’t a great many more accidents. In fact, a drunk driver is probably most likely to cause an accident when he either falls asleep or something requires a conscious decision and a fast reaction. In other words, the driving conditions are such that operating out of one’s subconscious skills is not enough.
當然，有一部分醉酒司機出了事故，但是你比較一下事故率和醉酒駕車的人，你會吃驚地發現出事故的人並不多。實際上，造成事故的原因可能是醉酒司機睡著了，或者是沒有做出意識上的行動和快速反應。換句話說，在開車的時候僅僅依靠潛意識還是不行的。
SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING
自我評估和交易
How this characteristic applies to our trading is also quite profound. The trading environment offers us an arena of unlimited opportunities to accumulate wealth. But just because the money is available and we can perceive the possibility of getting it, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we (as individuals) have an unlimited sense of self-valuation. In other words, there could be a huge gap between how much money we desire for ourselves, how much we perceive is available, and how much we actually believe we are worth or deserve.
這個特點影響我們交易的方式是意義深遠的。交易環境提供了一個無限積累財富的競技場。但是，我們以為可以得到觸手可及的金錢，但這並不意味著我們（個人）的自我評估也是無限的。換句話說，我們想要的錢，我們看到的錢，我們認為我們能賺到的錢，這三者之間有巨大的落差。
Everyone has a sense of self-valuation. The easiest way to describe this sense is to list every active belief, both conscious and subconscious, that has the potential to argue either for or against accumulating or achieving greater and greater levels of success and prosperity. Then match the energy from the positively charged beliefs against the energy from the negatively charged beliefs. If you have more positively charged energy arguing for success and prosperity than negatively charged energy arguing against them, then you have a positive sense of self-valuation. Otherwise, you have a negative sense of self-valuation.
每個人都有自我評估的認知，最簡單的描述這個認知的辦法就是列出你的活躍的信念，包括有意識的和無意識的，這些信念對你的成功或富有起積極作用或消極作用。然後比較積極能量和消極能量。如果你的要求成功和財富的積極能量比相反的消極能量多，那麽你的自我評估就是積極的。否則，你的自我評估就是消極的。
The dynamics of how these beliefs interact with one another is not nearly so simple as I’m making it sound. In fact, it can be so complex that it could take years of sophisticated mental work to organize and sort out. What you need to know is that it’s almost impossible to grow up in any social environment and not acquire some negatively charged beliefs that would argue against success or accumulating vast sums of money. Most of these self-sabotaging beliefs have long been forgotten and operate at a subconscious level, but the fact that we may have forgotten them doesn’t mean they’ve been de-activated.
這些信念互相作用的力量沒有我說的那麽簡單。實際上，它很複雜，也許需要多年的複雜的心理工作才能理清楚。你隻要知道，在社會環境中長大，我們自然會接受一些反對成功或反對累積大量錢財的消極信念。大部分這種自毀式的信念存在於我們的潛意識中，我們已經忘了它們，但它們在潛意識中運作；事實上我們忘了它們並不代表我們已經去除了它們的活躍性。
How do we acquire self-sabotaging beliefs? Unfortunately, it’s extremely easy. Probably the most common way is when a child engages in some activity that a parent or teacher doesn’t want him to do and the child accidently injures himself. Many parents, to get their point across to the child, will respond to a situation like this by saying, “This (whatever pain you are experiencing) wouldn’t have happened to you if you didn’t deserve it,” or “You disobeyed me and look what happened, God punished you.” The problem with making or hearing statements like this is that there’s a potential for the child to associate every future injury with these same statements and, subsequently, form a belief that he must be an unworthy person, undeserving of success, happiness, or love.
我們是如何得到自毀式的信念的？很不幸啊，方法超級簡單。最常見的方法就是當一個小孩正在做父母或老師禁止做的事情的時候意外地受傷了。很多父母為了把他們的思想教給小孩，一般都是在這種情況下說：“你要是不去做，這事（無論是何種痛苦）就不會發生在你身上”或“你不聽我的，看看結果，上帝懲罰你了”。以後當小孩遇到了什麽傷害時，他就會把自己的遭遇和這些話聯係起來，結果是，他形成的信念就是他必須成為一個不重要的人，不值得成功的人，不值得快樂的人，不值得愛的人。
Anything we feel guilty about can have an adverse effect on our sense of self-worth. Usually guilt is associated with being a bad person, and most people believe that bad people should be punished, certainly not rewarded. Some religions teach children that having a lot of money isn’t godly or spiritual. Some people believe that making money in certain ways is wrong, even though it may be perfectly legal and moral from society’s perspective. Again, you may not have a specific recollection of learning something that would argue against the success you perceive as possible, but that doesn’t mean that what you learned is no longer having an effect.
我們感到有罪的事都會對我們的自我價值造成消極影響。通常，有罪和壞人是聯係在一起的，大部分人認為壞人應該被懲罰，不應該得到回報。一些宗教會告訴小孩，得到很多錢是不好的，不神聖的。有些人認為即使賺錢的方法是合法的，也是道德的，賺錢也是一種錯誤。也許你不記得學到了對你成功有阻礙的東西，但是這不意味著你學到的東西再也沒有消極的影響。
The way these subconscious self-sabotaging beliefs manifest themselves in our trading is usually in the form of lapses in focus or concentration, resulting in any number of trading errors, like putting in a buy for a sell or vice versa, or allowing yourself to give in to distracting thoughts that compel you to leave the screen, only to find out when you return that you missed the big trade of the day. I’ve worked with many traders who achieved various levels of consistent success, but found they just couldn’t break through certain thresholds in acquiring equity. They discovered an invisible but very real barrier similar to the proverbial glass ceiling that many women executives experience in the corporate world.
這些潛意識的自毀式信念通過我們在交易時失去聚焦或注意力來表達它們。導致我們犯一些交易錯誤，比如買賣方向錯誤，或者是分心了不看屏幕，結果回來的時候發現自己錯過了當天的大行情。我和很多持續一致成功的交易者溝通過，但是我發現他們無法逾越累計財富的門檻。他們發現自己有一個隱形的障礙，就像很多公司的玻璃天花板讓女性感到不安。
Every time these traders hit the barrier, they experienced a significant draw down, regardless of the market conditions. However, when asked about what happened, they typically blamed their sudden run of bad luck on just that - luck or the vagaries of the market. Interestingly, they typically created a steadily rising equity curve, sometimes over a period of several months, and the significant draw down always occurred at the same spot in their equity curve. I describe this psychological phenomenon as being in a “negative zone.” As magically as money can flow into a trader’s accounts when he is “in the zone,” it can just as easily flow out, if he is in a negative zone where unresolved self-valuation issues mysteriously act on his perception of information and behavior.
每當交易者遇到了障礙，無論市場狀況如何，他們的資金曲線都會出現明顯的衰落。然而，如果問他們發生了什麽事，他們就說是運氣突然不好了——運氣或者是市場的反複無常。有趣的是，他們的資金曲線是穩定增長的，有時能持續幾個月如此，突然的衰落下跌總是發生在資金曲線同樣的地方。我把這個心理想象叫做“消極狀態”。當交易者“進入狀態”時，錢會神奇地流入他的賬戶。如果他處在消極狀態，無法解決的自我評估對信息認知和行為產生了奇怪的影響，錢也可以一樣輕鬆地流出去。
I am not implying here that you have to de-activate every belief that would argue against your ever-expanding positive sense of self-valuation, because you don’t. But you must be aware of the presence of such beliefs, and take specific steps in your trading regimen to compensate when they start expressing themselves.
我並不是說你要去除所有反對你積極自我評估信念的活躍性，因為你不會這麽做的。但是，你必須了解這些信念在起作用，當它們開始表達自己的時候，你就要在交易時非常小心了。
CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER
第11章 像交易者一樣思考
If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t. In any case, we go on to die next trade. It’s that simple, but it’s certainly not easy. In fact, trading is probably the hardest thing you’ll ever attempt to be successful at. That’s not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know, the less successful you’ll be. Trading is hard because you have to operate in a state of not having to know, even though your analysis may turn out at times to be “perfectly” correct. To operate in a state of not having to know, you have to properly manage your expectations. To properly manage your expectations, you must realign your mental environment so that you believe without a shadow of a doubt in the five fundamental truths.
如果你讓我對交易做個簡單的概括，我想說交易是數字識別遊戲。我們用市場分析去確認模式，定義風險，決定何時兌現利潤；交易要麽成功，要麽失敗，無論如何，總有一筆交易會失敗。這很簡單，但當然不好受。事實上，交易是最難成功的事；不是因為它需要智慧，事實上正好相反！因為你以為你知道的越多，你越不會成功。即使有時候你的分析最終證明是“完美的”正確的，但是最好的交易心理應該是你不必知道結果會如何，所以說交易難就難在這裏。要想用不必知道的心態去交易，你必須合理地管理好你的期望。為了合理地管理你的期望，你必須調整好你的心理環境，這樣你才能毫不保留地相信5個基本事實。
In this chapter, I am going to give you a trading exercise that will integrate these truths about the market at a functional level in your mental environment. In the process, I’ll take you through the three stages of development of a trader.
在本章，我想給你一個交易練習，這樣就能在你的心理環境中融合這些事實並具備應用功能。在這個過程中，我將帶你走過交易者的三個階段。
The first stage is the mechanical stage. In this stage, you:
第一階段是機械階段。在這個階段，你：
1. Build the self-trust necessary to operate in an unlimited environment.
2. Learn to flawlessly execute a trading system.
3. Train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths).
4. Create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader.
1. 在無限的環境中建立必要的自信。
2. 學習沒有缺點地執行一個交易係統。
3. 訓練你的思維用概率思考（5個基本事實）。
4. 創造一個強壯的，不動搖的信念，以成為持續一致的交易者。
Once you have completed this first stage, you can then advance to the subjective stage of trading. In this stage, you use anything you have ever learned about the nature of market movement to do whatever it is you want to do. There’s a lot of freedom in this stage, so you will have to learn how to monitor your susceptibility to make the kind of trading errors that are the result of any unresolved self-valuation issues I referred to in the last chapter.
一旦你完成了第一階段，你可以進階到交易的自覺階段。在這個階段，你可以利用你已經學到的任何市場知識去做你想做的事。這個階段有很多自由度，所以你隻要學習如何避免犯錯，這些錯誤是上一章提到的無法解決的自我評估問題造成的。
The third stage is the intuitive stage. Trading intuitively is the most advanced stage of development. It is the trading equivalent of earning a black belt in the martial arts. The difference is that you can’t try to be intuitive, because intuition is spontaneous. It doesn’t come from what we know at a rational level. The rational part of our mind seems to be inherently mistrustful of information received from a source that it doesn’t understand. Sensing that something is about to happen is a form of knowing that is very different from anything we know rationally. I’ve worked with many traders who frequently had a very strong intuitive sense of what was going to happen next, only to be confronted with the rational part of themselves that consistently, argued for another course of action. Of course, if they had followed their intuition, they would have experienced a very satisfying outcome. Instead, what they ended up with was usually very unsatisfactory, especially when compared with what they otherwise perceived as possible. The only way I know of that you can try to be intuitive is to work at setting up a state of mind most conducive to receiving and acting on your intuitive impulses.
第三階段是直覺階段。直覺交易是交易的最高境界，這相當於在拳擊中贏得了黑帶。因為直覺是自發的，所以你無法做到想有直覺就真的有直覺，這是直覺交易和其它交易的不同之處。對於不了解的信息，理性思維會錯誤地解讀信息。感覺到某事要發生和我們的理性思維還是很不同的。我和很多交易者溝通過，他們經常有這個感覺，他們的理性思維認為市場要向某個方向走，但是他們的直覺強烈地認為市場要向相反的方向走；當然了，如果他們跟隨自己的直覺，結果會非常滿意。相反，如果他們相信理想思維的結果，通常會很失望。我隻知道，如果你想讓直覺工作，你就要建立直覺的思維狀態。
THE MECHANICAL STAGE
機械交易階段
The mechanical stage of trading is specifically designed to build the kind of trading skills (trust, confidence, and thinking in probabilities) that will virtually compel you to create consistent results. I define consistent results as a steadily rising equity curve with only minor draw downs that are the natural consequence of edges that didn’t work.
交易的機械階段是特意設計的，以建立交易技術（信任、信心和用概率思考），迫使你實現持續一致的收益。我把持續一致的收益定義為資金曲線的穩定上漲，其間隻有比較小的自然的衰落（下跌）。
Other than finding a pattern that puts the odds of a winning trade in your favor, achieving a steadily rising equity curve is a function of systematically eliminating any susceptibility you may have to making the kind of fear, euphoric or self-valuation based trading errors I have described throughout this book. Eliminating the errors and expanding your sense of self-valuation will require the acquisition of skills that are all psychological in nature.
實現穩定上漲的資金曲線不是為了找到概率對你有利的模式，而是為了消滅本書中一再提到的交易缺點，比如恐懼、過分興奮、自我評估過高。消滅缺點，擴大你的自我評估感覺，這都要求掌握心理技術。
The skills are psychological because each one, in its purest form, is simply a belief. Remember that the beliefs we operate out of will determine our state of mind and shape our experiences in ways that constantly reinforce what we already believe to be true. How truthful a belief is (relative to the environmental conditions) can be determined by how well it serves us; that is, the degree to which it helps us satisfy our objectives. If producing consistent results is your primary objective as a trader, then creating a belief (a conscious, energized concept that resists change and demands expression) that “I am a consistently successful trader” will act as a primary source of energy that will manage your perceptions, interpretations, expectations, and actions in ways that satisfy the belief and, consequently, the objective.
因為任何技術簡單地說都是信念，所以技術和心理是相關的。記住，我們的信念會決定我們的思維狀態和體驗，並加強我們已經相信的東西。信念越真（相對於環境狀況），越能服務於我們，也就是越能幫助我們實現我們的目標。如果說，交易者的基本目標就是持續一致的收益，那麽創造一個“我是持續一致的成功交易者”的信念（一個有意識的有能量的概念，它拒絕改變並要求表達出來）就會成為主要的能量，這個能量會管理你的認知、解讀、期望和行動，以滿足信念和目標。
Creating a dominant belief that “I am a consistently successful trader” requires adherence to several principles of consistent success. Some of these principles will undoubtedly be in direct conflict with some of the beliefs you’ve already acquired about trading. If this is the case, then what you have is a classic example of beliefs that are in direct conflict with desire.
創造一個主導的“我是持續一致的成功者”的信念需要堅持幾個持續一致成功的原則。有些原則和你已經有的交易信念會發生衝突。如果是這樣，你的信念和欲望就是明顯直接衝突的。
The energy dynamic here is no different from what it was for the boy who wanted to be like the other children who were not afraid to play with dogs. He desired to express himself in a way that he found, at least initially, virtually impossible. To satisfy his desire, he had to step into an active process of transformation. His technique was simple: He tried as hard as he could to stay focused on what he was trying to accomplish and, little by little, he de-activated the conflicting belief and strengthened the belief that was consistent with his desire.
這裏所說的能量的動力和那個看見其他小孩和狗玩耍的小孩的是一樣的。他希望用他以前認為不可能的方式來表達自己。為了實現這個欲望，他需要進行一些轉變。他的技術很簡單：他努力聚焦於他要做的事，一點一點地，他去除了有衝突的信念的活躍性，並加強了和他欲望相關的信念。
At some point, if that is your desire, then you will have to step into the process of transforming yourself into a consistent winner. When it comes to personal transformation, the most important ingredients are your willingness to change, the clarity of your intent, and the strength of your desire. Ultimately, for this process to work, you must choose consistency over every other reason or justification you have for trading. If all of these ingredients are sufficiently present, then regardless of the internal obstacles you find yourself up against, what you desire will eventually prevail.
如果這是你的欲望，那麽你也需要進行轉變，把自己變成持續一致的贏家。關於個人的轉變，最重要的因素是你願意轉變，你的目標清晰，你欲望的力量強大。最後，為了實現這個過程，你必須把持續一致作為你的交易理由，並放棄其它理由或辯解。如果以上條件都具備了，不管你的內部障礙是什麽，你最期待的事最終會占優勢。
Observe Yourself
觀察你自己
The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what you’re thinking, saying, and doing. Why? Because everything we think, say, or do as a trader contributes to and, therefore, reinforces some belief in our mental system. Because the process of becoming consistent is psychological in nature, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that you’ll have to start paying attention to your various psychological processes. The idea is eventually to learn to become an objective observer of your own thoughts, words, and deeds. Your first line of defense against committing a trading error is to catch yourself thinking about it. Of course, the last line of defense is to catch yourself in the act. If you don’t commit yourself to becoming an observer to these processes, your realizations will always come after the experience, usually when you are in a state of deep regret and frustration.
創造持續一致性的第一步是開始注意你所想的、你所說的、你所做的事。為什麽要這麽做？因為我們想的、說的、做的事都會影響並加強我們心理係統裏麵的信念。因為實現持續一致本質上是一個心理過程，這就不奇怪你必須開始關注你的不同心理過程。目標是最終能客觀地觀察你的思維、言詞和行為。防止交易犯錯的第一道防線就是不要總想著自己會犯錯；當然了，最後一道防線是不要犯錯。如果你不能承諾自己會做到以上幾點，那麽你在犯錯後就會感到深度後悔和深受挫折。
Observing yourself objectively implies doing it without judgment or any harsh criticism as a consequence for what you are noticing about yourself. This might not be so easy for some of you to do considering the harsh, judgmental treatment you may have received from other people throughout your life. As a result, one quickly learns to associate any mistake with emotional pain. No one likes to be in a state of emotional pain, so we typically avoid acknowledging what we have learned to define as a mistake for as long as possible. Not confronting mistakes in our everyday lives usually doesn’t have the same disastrous consequences it can have if we avoid confronting our mistakes as traders.
客觀地觀察自己就是在觀察自己的時候不要對自己做判斷，也不要嚴厲地批評自己。對於有些人來說，考慮到別人總是對他們有嚴厲的判斷式的評論，想做到客觀還是不太容易的。結果是，他們很容易把錯誤和情緒痛苦聯係起來。沒有人喜歡自己情緒痛苦，所以我們會盡量避免定義自己的錯誤。作為交易者，如果我們避免麵對自己的錯誤，通常不會像生活中那樣能避免災難性的後果。
For example, when I am working with floor traders, the analogy I use to illustrate how precarious a situation they are in is to ask them to imagine themselves walking across a bridge over the Grand Canyon. The width of the bridge is directly related to the number of contracts they trade. So, for example, for a one-contract trader the bridge is very wide, say 20 feet. A bridge 20 feet wide allows you a great deal of tolerance for error, so you don’t have to be inordinately careful or focused on each step you take. Still, if you do happen to stumble and trip over the edge, the drop to the canyon floor is one mile.
比如，當我和一些場內交易者溝通時，我讓他們想象自己正在大峽穀的橋上走路，我用這個比喻是為了說明如何保持謹慎。橋的寬度和他們交易的合約數是相關的。舉例說，1份合約相當於橋麵有20英尺寬，20英尺寬的橋麵可以讓你不用那麽小心，不用那麽謹慎，你可以忍受比較多的錯誤。然而，如果你不小心絆倒了，跌出了橋麵，你就會跌到下麵1英裏的橋底下。
I don’t know how many people would walk across a narrow bridge with no guardrails, where the ground is a mile down, but my guess is relatively few. Similarly, few people will take the kinds of risks associated with trading on the floor of the futures exchanges. Certainly a one-contract floor trader can do a great deal of damage to himself, not unlike falling off a mile-high bridge. But a one-contract trader also can give himself a wide tolerance for errors, miscalculations, or unusually violent market moves where he could find himself on the wrong side.
我不知道有多少人敢走橋麵狹窄，沒有欄杆，離地麵1英裏高的橋，我猜這樣的人應該很少。同理，很少有人敢在交易所場內冒這麽大的風險做期貨。當然了，和從1英裏高的橋上掉下來不同，交易1份合約的交易者也會極大地傷害自己。但是，隻交易1份合約的交易者可以忍受比較大的錯誤、誤算或市場的劇烈反向波動。
On the other hand, one of the biggest floor traders I ever worked with trades for his own account with an average position of 500 Treasury bond futures at a time. He often puts on a position of well over a thousand contracts. A position of 1,000 T-bond contracts amounts to $31,500 per tic (the smallest incremental price change that a bond contract can make). Of course, T-bond futures can be very volatile and can trade several tics in either direction in a matter of seconds.
另一方麵，我遇到的交易量最大的場內交易者，他的賬戶平均有500份債券期貨。他的倉位經常超過1000份合約。一個有1000份債券合約的賬戶相當於每變動一個基點（債券合約的最小變動單位），賬戶總額就有31500美元的資金變化。當然，債券期貨的波動很大，幾秒鍾內會向任意方向波動幾個基點。
As the size of a traders position increases, the width of our bridge over the Grand Canyon narrows. In the case of the large bond trader, the bridge has narrowed to the size of a thin wire. Obviously, he has to be extremely well-balanced and very focused on each step that he takes. The slightest misstep or gust of wind could cause him to fall off the wire. Next stop, one mile down.
當倉位增加時，大峽穀上麵的橋麵就變窄了。對這個大量交易債券的交易者來說，橋麵已經窄到了一根鐵絲的程度。很明顯，他必須極力平衡好自己的賬戶，每一個動作都要非常小心。走錯一小步或輕微的風都能把他吹下鐵絲，下一站在1英裏下麵。
Now, when he’s in the trading pit, that tiny misstep or slight gust of wind is the equivalent to one distracting thought. That’s all, just a thought or anything else where he allows himself to lose his focus for even a second or two. In that moment of distraction, he could miss his last favorable opportunity to liquidate his position. The next price level with enough volume to take him out of his trade could be several tics away, either creating a huge loss or forcing him to give a substantial winning trade back to the market.
現在，他在交易所場內，走錯一小步或輕微的風相當於分心。也就是說，隻要他在1，2秒內有一個想法或任何想法，導致他無法聚焦於自己的交易。當他分心的那1，2秒，他就錯過了最後的最佳平倉機會。能再次平倉的位置可能是幾個基點以外的點位了，他要麽是大虧，要麽是把很多利潤又送還給了市場。
If producing consistent results is a function of eliminating errors, then it is an understatement to say that you will encounter great difficulty in achieving your objective if you can’t acknowledge a mistake. Obviously, this is something very few people can do, and it accounts for why there are so few consistent winners. In fact, the tendency not to acknowledge a mistake is so pervasive throughout mankind, it could lead one to assume that it’s an inherent characteristic of human nature. I do not believe this is the case, nor do I believe we are born with the capacity to ridicule or think less of ourselves for making a mistake, miscalculation, or error.
如果產生持續一致性的結果就是要消滅錯誤，如果你不承認錯誤，那麽保守地說，你會麵對很多困難。顯然，很少有人能承認錯誤，所以隻有少數人能成為持續一致的贏家。實際上，人類是很固執的，一般人都不願意承認自己的錯誤，所以一般人認為這是人類的本性。我不這麽認為，也不相信我們天生就隻會嘲笑或很少考慮我們的錯誤、誤算或犯錯。
Making mistakes is a natural function of living and will continue to be until we reach a point at which:
犯錯是生活中的自然功能，如果做不到以下程度，我們會繼續犯錯的：
1. all our beliefs are in absolute harmony with our desires, and
2. all our beliefs are structured in such a way that they are completely consistent with what works from the environment’s perspective.
1. 所有的信念和我們的欲望絕對是和諧的，且
2. 所有的信念結構和環境完全是一致的。
Obviously, if our beliefs are not consistent with what works from the environments perspective, the potential for making a mistake is high, if not inevitable. We won’t be able to perceive the appropriate set of steps to our objective. Worse, we won’t be able to perceive that what we want may not be available, or available in the quantity we desire or at the time when we want it.
顯然，如果我們的信念和環境不一致，那麽犯錯的概率就高，我們就無法采取合適的方法實現目標。更糟糕的是，我們可能不知道我們想要的東西不存在，或數量不夠，或時間不對。
On the other hand, mistakes that are the result of beliefs that are in conflict with our objectives aren’t always apparent or obvious. We know they will act as opposing forces, expressing their versions of the truth on our consciousness, and they can do that in many ways. The most difficult to detect is a distracting thought that causes a momentary lapse in focus or concentration. On the surface this may not sound significant. But, as in the analogy of the bridge over the canyon, when there’s a lot at stake, even a slightly diminished capacity to stay focused can result in an error of disastrous proportions. This principle applies whether it’s trading, sporting events, or computer programming. When our intent is clear and undiminished by any opposing energy, then our capacity to stay focused is greater, and the more likely it is that we will accomplish our objective.
另一方麵，信念和我們的目標的衝突總是不明顯的，信念會導致犯錯。它們會成為反向的力量，並用很多種方式在我們的意識中表達自己。當我們聚焦於某件事的時候，如果此時分散注意力了，就會導致瞬間失去了思維，但這種現象不易察覺。表麵上，這聽起來不重要，但是這和橋麵的比喻是一樣的，你稍不留神都有可能導致災難。無論是交易、體育比賽或編程，它們的道理都是一樣的。當我們的目標清晰，能量沒有被相反的能量抵消時，我們的聚焦能力就比較強，我們就有越可能實現目標。
Earlier I defined a winning attitude as a positive expectation of our efforts, with an acceptance that whatever results we do get are a perfect reflection of our level of development and what we need to learn to do better. What separates the “consistently great” athletes and performers from everyone else is their distinct lack of fear of making a mistake. The reason they aren’t afraid is that they don’t have a reason to think less of themselves when they do make a mistake, meaning they don’t have a reservoir of negatively charged energy waiting to well up and pounce on their conscious thought process like a lion waiting for the right moment to pounce on its intended prey. What accounts for this uncommon capacity to quickly move beyond their errors without criticizing themselves? One explanation may be that they grew up with extremely unusual parents, teachers, and coaches, who by their words and examples taught them to correct their miscalculations and errors with genuine love, affection, and acceptance. I say “extremely unusual” because many of us grew up with just the opposite experience. We were taught to correct our mistakes or miscalculations with anger, impatience, and a distinct lack of acceptance. Is it possible that, for the great athletes, their past positive experiences with respect to mistakes caused them to acquire a belief that mistakes simply point the way to where they need to focus their efforts to grow and improve themselves?
之前，我把贏家態度定義為對努力的積極期待，並接受無論結果是什麽，那都反應了我們的成長道路，我們將會做的更好。“持續一致”的運動員和表演家與別人的不同之處就是不怕犯錯。他們不怕的原因是當他們犯錯時，他們沒有理由顧及自己的麵子，因為他們還要繼續下去，這意味著他們不會像獅子靜靜地等待獵物並猛撲上去那樣讓消極的能量儲備起來然後突然爆發。是什麽讓他們在犯錯時還能快速行動，且不怪罪自己的？一個解釋是，也許他們成長時的父母、老師、教練都絕對不是常人，這些人身體力行地教導他們要用自己純粹的愛、嗬護和包容接受自己的錯誤。我說“絕對不是常人”因為大部分人的成長環境正好相反。我們總是被迫無奈地，憤怒地，不耐煩地，豪不包容地去改正我們的錯誤或失誤。是不是可以這麽說，大部分偉大的運動員，他們犯錯時的積極體驗讓他們得到了一個信念，那就是錯誤僅僅是他們成長發展路上的東西，錯誤向他們指明了聚焦的方向，以讓他們提升自己？
With a belief like that, there’s no source of negatively charged energy and consequently no source for self-denigrating thoughts. However, the rest of us, who did grow up experiencing a plethora of negative reactions to our actions, would naturally acquire beliefs about mistakes: “Mistakes must be avoided at all costs,” “There must be something wrong with me if I make a mistake,” “I must be a screw-up,” or “I must be a bad person if I make a mistake.”
有了這樣的信念，消極的能量就無處藏身，他們也不會自我貶低了。然而，其他人都是在對錯誤的過度反應中長大的，他們得到的關於犯錯的信念是：“必須用一切代價避免犯錯”“如果我犯錯了，我肯定有問題”“我一定搞砸了”或者是“如果我犯錯了，我一定是個壞人”。
Remember that every thought, word, and deed reinforces some belief we have about ourselves. If, by repeated negative self-criticism, we acquire a belief that we’re “screw-ups,” that belief will find a way to express itself in our thoughts, causing us to become distracted and to screw up; on our words, causing us to say things about ourselves or about others (if we notice the same characteristics in them) that reflect our belief; and on our actions, causing us to behave in ways that are overtly self-sabotaging.
請記住，我們的每個想法、言詞和行為都會加強我們的一些信念。如果總是消極地自我批評，我們的信念就是“我總是把事情搞砸了”，這樣的信念就會在我們的思想中想方法自我表達，導致我們容易分心，更容易搞砸事情；在言詞上，導致我們談論別人（如果我們注意到了他們有同樣的特征）或自己的話都反應了我們的信念；在行為上，導致我們的行為都是過度自毀的。
If you’re going to become a consistent winner, mistakes can’t exist in the kind of negatively charged context in which they are held by most people. You have to be able to monitor yourself to some degree, and that will be difficult to do if you have the potential to experience emotional pain if and when you find yourself in the process of making an error. If this potential exists, you have two choices:
如果你想成為持續一致的贏家，就不能有別人那樣的消極的言詞和錯誤。你要在一定程度上監督自己，如果你容易產生情緒痛苦，而你又正在犯錯，你就會發現監督自己是困難的。如果你有可能會這樣，你有兩個選擇：
1. You can work on acquiring a new set of positively charged beliefs about what it means to make a mistake, along with de-activating any negatively charged beliefs that would argue otherwise or cause you to think less of yourself for making a mistake.
2. If you find this first choice undesirable, you can compensate for the potential to make errors by the way you set up your trading regime. This means that if you’re going to trade and not monitor yourself, but at the same time you desire consistent results, then trading exclusively from the mechanical stage will resolve the dilemma.
1. 對於犯錯，你可以努力形成一套新的積極的信念，並去除消極信念的活躍性，以免你在犯錯時自怨自艾。
2. 如果你不喜歡第一個選擇，你可以建立自己交易係統，這樣也可以減少你犯錯的概率。這意味著，如果你要交易，又不想監督自己，同時你又渴望持續一致的收益，那麽就用機械的方法交易可以解決這個兩難的處境。
Otherwise, learning how to monitor yourself is a relatively simple process once you have rid yourself of negatively charged energy associated with mistakes. In fact, it’s easy. All you have to do is decide why you want to monitor yourself, which means you first need to have a clear purpose in mind. When you’re clear about your purpose, simply start directing your attention to what you think, say, or do.
或者，如果你能去除和犯錯相關的消極能量，學習如何監督自己就相對簡單了。事實上確實很簡單。你能搞明白你為什麽要監督自己就行了，這意味著首先你要有明確的目標。一旦你的目標明確了，隻要簡單地把焦點放到你的想法、說法和行動上就行了。
If and when you notice that you’re not focused on your objective or on the incremental steps to accomplish your objective, choose to redirect your thoughts, words, or actions in a way that is consistent with what you are trying to accomplish. Keep redirecting as often as necessary. The more willfully you engage in this process, especially if you can do it with some degree of conviction, the faster you will create a mental framework free to function in a way that is consistent with your objectives, without any resistance from conflicting beliefs.
一旦你發現自己並沒有聚焦於自己的目標，或者是沒有向目標慢慢接近，那麽你就把你的思想、言詞或行動轉到和你目標一致的方向；如果有必要，就一直這麽做。你這麽做的意願越強，尤其是你帶著決心這麽做的時候，那麽你就能快速製造一個心理環境，它的功能和你的目標一致，和你的信念也不衝突。
THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE
自律的作用
I call the process I just described self-discipline. I define self-discipline as a mental technique to redirect (as best we can) our focus of attention to the object of our goal or desire, when that goal or desire conflicts with some other component (belief) of our mental environment.
我把以上過程叫自律。我把自律定義為一種心理技術，當我們的目標或欲望和我們心理環境的其它東西（信念）有衝突時，我們的心理技術能讓我們的關注焦點轉向目標或欲望。
The first thing you should notice about this definition is that self-discipline is a technique to create a new mental framework. It is not a personality trait; people aren’t born with self-discipline. In fact, when you consider how I define it, being born with discipline isn’t even possible. However, as a technique to be used in the process of personal transformation, anybody can choose to use self-discipline.
首先你要注意定義說自律是產生新的心理結構的技術。它不是個人的特點，人們在出生時並沒有自律性。實際上，如果你想想我是如何定義的，天生就有自律是不可能的。然而，技術是用來讓人們轉變的，任何人都可以選擇有自律。
Here is an example from my life that illustrates the underlying dynamics of how this technique works. In 1978 I decided that I wanted to become a runner. I don’t exactly remember what my underlying motivation was, except that I had spent the previous eight years in a very inactive life style. I wasn’t involved with any sports or hobbies, unless you call watching television a hobby.
我本人的例子就說明了這個技術是如何運作的。1978年我決定跑步。我已經忘了當時的動機是什麽，反正之前的8年我的生活比較沉悶。除了喜歡看電視，我並沒有任何體育興趣。
Previously in both high school and at least part of college I was very active in sports, especially ice hockey. However, coming out of college, my life was unfolding in the way that was very different from what I had expected. It was not to my liking, but at the time I felt powerless to do anything about it. This led to a period of inactivity, which is a nice way of saying that I was severely depressed.
之前，在高中和大學的部分時光，我對體育有興趣，尤其是冰球。然而，大學畢業後，我發現生活和我想象的不一樣。我不喜歡當時的生活，但沒有力量去改變現狀。這就導致了我的沉悶，也可以直接說我相當鬱悶。
Again, I’m not sure what prompted me to suddenly want to become a runner (maybe I saw some TV program that sparked my interest). I do, however, remember that the motivation was very strong. So, I went out and bought myself some running shoes, put them on, and went out to run. The first thing I discovered was that I couldn’t do it. I didn’t have the physical stamina to run more than fifty or sixty yards. This was very surprising. I didn’t realize, nor would I have ever believed, that I was so out of shape that I couldn’t run even a hundred yards. This realization was so disheartening that I didn’t attempt to run again for two or three weeks. The next time out, I still couldn’t run more than fifty or sixty yards. I tried again the next day with, of course, the same result. I became so discouraged about my deteriorated physical condition that I didn’t run again for another four months.
我也不知道是什麽東西突然叫我想去跑步（也許是電視節目激起了我的興趣）。我隻知道當時的動機非常強烈。所以，我出去買了一些跑鞋，穿上就出去跑。很快我就發現自己根本跑不動，我的體力最多隻能讓我跑50或60碼。這很奇怪。我沒意識到，也不相信我的體質差得連跑100碼都不行。這個認識太讓我傷心了，其後的2，3周，我都沒有去跑步。後來我又出去跑，還是不能超過50或60碼。當然，第二天我又嚐試了，還是一樣的結果。我對自己體質的下降非常失望，受了挫折，其後的4個月我都沒有去跑步。
Now, it’s the spring of 1979. I’m once again determined to become a runner, but, at the same time, very frustrated with my lack of progress. As I was contemplating my dilemma, it occurred to me that one of my problems was that I didn’t have a goal to work towards. Saying that I wanted to be a runner was great, but what did that mean? I really didn’t know; it was too vague and abstract. I had to have something more tangible to work towards. So I decided that I wanted to be able to run five miles by the end of the summer.
到了1979年春天，我再次決定去跑步，但是同樣又深受挫折。當時我在思考我的兩難處境，我發現我的問題來自我沒有目標。我想跑步是對的，但這意味著什麽？我真的不知道，這個太模糊了，太抽象了。我需要一個清晰的目標。所以，我決定在秋天之前能跑5英裏。
Five miles seemed insurmountable at the time, but thinking that I might be able to do it generated a lot of enthusiasm. This increased level of enthusiasm gave me enough impetus to run four times that week. At the end of this first week, I was really surprised to discover even a little bit of exercise improved my stamina and ability to run a little farther each time. This created even more enthusiasm, so I went out and bought a stop watch and blank book to be used as a running diary. I set up a two-mile course, and marked off each quarter mile. In the diary I entered the date, my distance, my time, and how I felt physically each time I ran.
當時覺得5英裏這個目標很難實現，但是我的想法還是給了我很多激情。上漲的激情刺激我一周跑4次。第一周結束時，我吃驚地發現每次練習都能讓我跑的更遠，這就讓我更有激情，所以我去買了一個秒表和空白本子做跑步記錄。我設置了2英裏的目標，並記錄了每英裏的四分之一處。我在本子裏記錄了日期、跑過的距離、時間以及當時身體的感覺。
Now I thought I was well on my way to the five miles, until I literally ran into my next set of problems. The biggest were the conflicting and distracting thoughts that flooded my consciousness every time I decided I wanted to go out and run. I was amazed at the number (and intensity) of the reasons I found for not doing it: “It’s hot [or] cold outside,” “It looks like it’s going to rain,” “I’m still a little tired from the last time I ran (even though it was three days ago),” “Nobody else I know is doing this,” or the most prevalent, “I’ll go as soon as this TV program is over” (of course I never went).
現在我向5英裏進軍了，但是又遇到了一個問題。每次當我想出去跑步時，我內心就有很多其它想法，這些想法和我的意識發生了衝突。我為自己找了很多借口，數量驚人：“外麵很熱（或冷）”“看樣子要下雨”“上次跑過以後（即使是3天以前），我到現在都很累”“別人都不會像我這樣跑步”或者是更普遍的：“當電視節目結束了，我就去跑（當然我從來沒有去跑）”。
I didn’t know any other way to deal with this conflicting mental energy except to redirect my conscious attention on what I was trying to accomplish. I really wanted to get to five miles by the end of the summer. I found that sometimes my desire was stronger than the conflict. As a result, I managed to get my running shoes on, actually step outside, and start running. However, more times than not, my conflicting and distracting thoughts caused me to stay put. In fact, in the beginning stages, I estimate that two-thirds of the time I was unable to get past the conflicting energy.
我不知道如何處理這個衝突的心理能量，隻好轉移我們的注意力。我真的想在秋天以前自己能跑5英裏。有時候，我發現我的欲望比衝突還要強。結果是，我努力穿上跑鞋，走出去，開始跑。然而，很多時候，我那衝突的分散的思想總是讓我坐在家裏。實際上，在開始階段，我估計有三分之二的時間我不能克服這個衝突的能量。
The next problem I encountered was that when I started approaching the point where I was able to run one mile, I was so thrilled with myself that it occurred to me I was going to need an additional mechanism to get me to the five miles. I reasoned that once I got to the point where I could run two or maybe three miles, I would be so overwhelmingly pleased with myself that I wouldn’t feel any need to fulfill my five-mile objective. So I made a rule for myself. You could call it the five-mile rule. “If I managed to get my running shoes on and get outside in spite of all the conflicting thoughts trying to talk me out of it, I committed myself to running at least one step farther than the last time I ran.” It was certainly all right if I ran more than one step further, but it couldn’t be less than one step, no matter what. As it turns out, I never broke this rule, and by the end of the summer, I made it to five miles.
我遇到的第二個問題是，當我快能跑1英裏時，我太激動了，我需要一個機械係統來幫助我實現5英裏。每當我能跑2或3英裏時，我就高興地想，實在沒有必要再去跑5英裏了。所以我定了一個原則，也就是5英裏原則。“如果我努力穿上了鞋，並擺脫了衝突思想的限製走出了門，那麽我就承諾我這次要比上次多跑一步。”多跑一步是可以的，但不可以少跑一步，不管是什麽情況。我一直遵守了這個原則，到了夏天快結束的時候，我真的能跑5英裏了。
But then, something really interesting and completely unanticipated happened before I got there. As I got closer to fulfilling my five-mile objective, little by little, the conflicting thoughts began to dissipate. Eventually they didn’t exist at all. At that point, I found that if I wanted to run, I was completely free to do so without any mental resistance, conflict, or competing thoughts. Given what a struggle it had been, I was amazed (to say the least). The result: I went on to run on a very regular basis for the next 16 years.
但在當時，在我實現之前，確實發生了有趣的和沒想到的事。當我一點一點地，離5英裏的目標越來越近時，衝突的思想開始消失了，最終什麽都沒有了。那時，我發現隻要我想跑，我可以豪不猶豫地跑，沒有任何阻力、衝突或對抗的想法。想想之前是多麽的困難，我很吃驚。結果是：後來的16年，我都在堅持定期跑步。
For those of you who may be interested, I don’t run so much now because five years ago I decided to start playing ice hockey again. Hockey is an extremely strenuous sport. Sometimes I play as many as four times a week. Considering my age (over 50) and the level of exertion the sport requires, it usually takes me a day or two to recover, which doesn’t leave much room for running any more.
如果你們有興趣追問下去，我隻好告訴你們我現在已經不跑步了，因為5年前我決定玩冰球。冰球是非常費力的運動。有時候我一周要玩4次。考慮到我的年齡（我50多歲了）以及這個運動要求的體力，我需要花1，2天才能恢複體力，所以我就沒有體力再去跑步了。
Now, if you take these experiences and put them into the context of what we now understand about the nature of beliefs, there are a number of observations we can make:
如果你把這些體驗放入你對信念的理解，那麽就能說明幾點：
1. Initially, my desire to be a runner had no foundation of support in my mental system. In other words, there was no other source of energy (an energized concept demanding expression) consistent with my desire.
1. 一開始，我想要跑步的想法並沒有在我的心理係統裏得到支持。換句話說，沒有其它能量（有能量的，需要表達的概念）來支持我們的欲望。
2. I actually had to do something to create that support. To create a belief that “I am a runner” required that I create a series of experiences consistent with the new belief. Remember that everything we think, say, or do contributes energy to some belief in our mental system. Each time I experienced a conflicting thought and was able to successfully refocus on my objective, with enough conviction to get me into my running shoes and out the door, I added energy to the belief that “I am a runner.” And, just as important, I inadvertently drew energy away from all of the beliefs that would argue otherwise. I say inadvertently because there are various techniques specifically designed to identify and de-activate conflicting beliefs, but at that time in my life, I didn’t understand the underlying dynamics of the process of transformation I was going through. So, it wouldn’t have occurred to me to avail myself of such techniques.
2. 我真的需要創造一些支撐力量。為了創造一個“我能跑”的信念，我需要創造一係列的體驗來支持這個信念。記住，我們想的、說的、做的，都會對我們思維係統中的信念補充能量。每次當我有了衝突的想法，無法專注於我的目標，不能穿鞋往外跑時，我就告訴自己“我能跑”以給自己的信念補充能量。同樣重要的是，我不經意地消除相反信念的能量。我說“不經意地”是因為有很多技術能確認並去除有衝突的信念的活躍性，但是在當時，我並不明白我轉變的內在動力。所以，別人也可以掌握這個技術，不僅僅是我。
3. Now I can effortlessly (from a mental perspective) express myself as a runner, because “I am a runner.” That energized concept is now a functioning part of my identity. When I first started out, I happened to have a number of conflicting beliefs about running. As a result, I needed the technique of self-discipline to become one. Now I don’t need self-discipline because “being a runner” is “who I am.” When our beliefs are completely aligned with our goals or desires, there’s no source of conflicting energy. If there’s no source of conflicting energy, then there’s no source of distracting thoughts, excuses, rationalizations, justifications, or mistakes (conscious or subconscious).
3. 現在我可以輕鬆地說我能跑，因為“我能跑”。這個有能量的概念是我的一部分功能。當我第一次出發時，我有很多關於跑步的衝突的信念。結果是，我需要自律這個技術以證明自己能跑。現在，我不需要自律了，因為“我本來就能跑”。當我們的信念和我們的目標或欲望完全一致時，衝突的能量就無法存在了。如果沒有衝突的能量，就不會分心了，不會找借口了，不會解釋了，不會辯解了，不會犯錯了（有意識地或無意識地）。
4. Beliefs can be changed, and if it’s possible to change one belief, then it’s possible to change any belief, if you understand that you really aren’t changing them, but are only transferring energy from one concept to another. (The form of the belief targeted for change remains intact.) Therefore, two completely contradictory beliefs can exist in your mental system, side by side. But if you’ve drawn the energy out of one belief and completely energized the other, no contradiction exists from a functional perspective; only the belief that the energy will have the capacity to act as a force on your state of mind, on your perception and interpretation of information, and your behavior.
4. 如果你知道你並沒有真的改變信念，隻是把能量從這個信念轉到那個信念就叫改變信念，如果一個信念可以被改變，那麽任何信念都可能被改變（被改變的信念的形態並沒有改變）。因此，兩個完全矛盾的信念可以同時存在於你的心理係統。但是，如果你已經把一個信念的能量消除了，並把能量完全給了另一個信念，那麽你的認知就沒有了矛盾。隻有有能量的信念可以影響你的思維狀態、認知、對信息的解讀和你的行為。
Now, the sole purpose of trading mechanically is to transform yourself into a consistently successful trader. If there’s anything in your mental environment that’s in conflict with the principles of creating the belief that “I am a consistently successful trader,” then you will need to employ the technique of self-discipline to integrate these principles as a dominant, functioning part of your identity. Once the principles become “who you are,” you will no longer need self-discipline, because the process of “being consistent” will become effortless.
現在，機械交易的唯一目標是把你轉變成持續一致成功的交易者。如果說你的心理環境中還有什麽和“我是持續一致成功的交易者”這個信念相衝突的話，那麽你就需要采用自律的技術以把這些原則變成主導的，功能性的你。一旦原則變成了“真正的你”，你就不再需要自律，因為實現“持續一致性”是毫不費力的。
Remember that consistency is not the same as the ability to put on a winning trade, or even a string of winning trades for that matter, because putting on a winning trade requires absolutely no skill. All you have to do is guess correctly, which is no different than guessing the outcome of a coin toss, whereas consistency is a state of mind that, once achieved, won’t allow you to “be” any other way. You won’t have to try to be consistent because it will be a natural function of your identity. In fact, if you have to try, it’s an indication that you haven’t completely integrated the principles of consistent success as dominant, unconflicted beliefs.
因為某筆交易賺錢絕對不需要什麽技術，所以請記住，持續一致不是指有能力做到某筆交易賺錢，更不是指連續多筆交易賺錢。你所要做的是猜對，這和擲硬幣是一個道理，然而持續一致性是一種思想狀態，一旦交易是賺錢的，就要盡量擴大利潤。你不必嚐試要做到持續一致，因為這是你的自然功能。實際上，如果你必須嚐試去做，那說明你沒有完全把持續一致成功的原則變成主導的不衝突的信念。
For example, predefining your risk is a step in the process of “being consistent.” If it takes any special effort to predefine your risk, if you have to consciously remind yourself to do it, if you experience any conflicting thoughts (in essence, trying to talk you out of doing it), or if you find yourself in a trade where you haven’t predefined your risk, then this principle is not a dominant, functioning part of your identity. It isn’t “who you are.” If it were, it wouldn’t even occur to you not to predefine your risk.
比如，提前衡量風險是“持續一致”的一個過程。如果你要努力嚐試去提前衡量風險，如果你要有意識地提醒自己這麽做，如果你的思想有衝突（也就是說自己不想這麽做），如果你發現自己沒有提前衡量風險就建立了倉位，那麽就說明這個原則不是你的主導原則，也不是你的功能性原則。你“沒有進入狀態”，否則，你不會不提前衡量風險的。
If and when all of the sources of conflict have been de-activated, there’s no longer a potential for you to “be” any other way. What was once a struggle will become virtually effortless. At that point, it may seem to other people that you are so disciplined (because you can do something they find difficult, if not impossible), but the reality is that you aren’t being disciplined at all; you are simply functioning from a different set of beliefs that compel you to behave in a way that is consistent with your desires, goals, or objectives.
一旦所有的衝突的都被去除了活躍性，那麽你就再也不用“成為”持續一致的交易者了。過去在掙紮做的事，現在做起來毫不費力。此時，別人會覺得你很有紀律（因為你能做別人感覺很難做到的事），但事實上這和紀律似乎沒什麽關係了。你僅僅是有一套信念，這套信念讓你做的事和你的欲望、目標、願望是一致的。
CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY
創造一個相信持續一致性的信念
Creating a belief that “I am a consistent winner” is the primary objective, but like my intention to become a runner, it’s too broad and abstract to implement without breaking it down into a step-by-step process. So what I’m going to do is break this belief down into its smallest definable parts and then give you a plan to integrate each part as a dominant belief. The following sub-beliefs are the building blocks that provide the underlying structure for what it means “to be a consistent winner.”
創造一個“我是持續一致的贏家”的信念是基本的目標，但是，和我想跑步的想法一樣，如果不把這個信念分解成一步一步的過程，它是抽象難懂的。所以，我準備把這個信念分解成一個個小信念，然後教你如何把它們組成一個主導信念。把以下的小信念組合在一起，就變成了“成為持續一致贏家”這個主導信念。
I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:
我是持續一致的贏家，因為:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.
1. 我客觀地確認我的優勢。
2. 我在每筆交易前都提前衡量風險。
3. 我完全接受風險，否則我願意放棄這筆交易。
4. 我根據優勢交易時沒有任何保留或猶豫。
5. 我讓市場為我賺錢。
6. 我持續監督自己不要犯錯。
7. 我明白這些原則是持續一致成功的必要原則，因此，我絕不會違反它們。
These beliefs are the seven principles of consistency. To integrate these principles into your mental system at a functional level requires that you purposely create a series of experiences that are consistent with them. This is no different from the boy who wanted to play with dogs or my desire to be a runner. Before he could play with a dog, the boy first had to make several attempts just to get close to one. Eventually, as the balance of energy in his mental system shifted, he could play with dogs without any internal resistance. To become a runner, I had to create the experience of running in spite of everything inside me that argued otherwise. Eventually, as the energy shifted more and more in favor of this new definition of myself, running became a natural expression of my identity.
這些信念是7個持續一致性的原則。要想把這些原則融於你的心理係統並起作用，那麽你就要有目的地創造和它們一致的一係列體驗。這和小孩想和狗玩，或我想跑步都是一個道理。要想和狗玩耍，小孩首先要嚐試和某隻狗親密起來。最終，當他心理係統中的能量發生轉移時，他就可以毫不猶豫地和狗玩耍了。要想跑步，我必須克服內心的掙紮以創造一個跑步的體驗。最終，當能量越來越多地向新的我轉移時，跑步變成了我的自然表達方式。
Obviously, what we’re trying to accomplish here is far more complex than becoming a runner or petting a dog, but the underlying dynamics of the process are identical. We’ll start with a specific objective. The first principle of consistency is the belief, “I objectively identify my edges.” The key word here is objectively. Being objective means there’s no potential to define, interpret, and therefore perceive any market information from either a painful or euphoric perspective. The way to be objective is to operate out of beliefs that keep your expectations neutral and to always take the unknown forces into consideration.
很明顯，我們現在要努力實現的事比跑步或和狗玩要更複雜，但是過程下麵的動力都是一樣的。我們一開始要有具體的目標。持續一致性的第一個原則是“我客觀地確認我的優勢”這個信念。關鍵詞是客觀地，客觀意味著不能從痛苦或過分興奮的角度來定義、解讀和認知市場信息。客觀就是你的期望是中性的，你永遠要把各種未知因素考慮在內。
Remember, you have to specifically train your mind to be objective and to stay focused in the “now moment opportunity flow.” Our minds are not naturally wired to think this way, so to be an objective observer you have to learn to think from the market’s perspective. From the market’s perspective, there are always unknown forces (traders) waiting to act on price movement. Therefore, from the market’s perspective, “every moment is truly unique,” even though the moment may look, sound, or feel exactly the same as some moment logged away in your memory bank.
記住，你必須刻意訓練你的思維保持客觀並聚焦於“現在的機會流”。我們的思維不會天生這麽想，所以要想成為客觀的觀察者，你必須學習從市場的角度思考。從市場的角度來說，總是有未知的力量（交易者）在一旁等著，並根據價格的波動做出行動。因此，從市場的角度來說，即使你看見的、聽見的或感覺到的和你記憶中的一模一樣，其實“每個時刻都是獨特的”。
The instant you either decide or assume you know what’s going to happen next, you will automatically expect to be right. However, what you know, at least at the rational level of thinking, can only take into consideration your unique past, which may not have any relationship to what is actually happening from the markets perspective. At that point, any market information that is not consistent with your expectation has the potential to be defined and interpreted as painful. To avoid experiencing the pain, your mind will automatically compensate, with both conscious and subconscious pain-avoidance mechanisms, for any differences between what you expect and what the market is offering.
一旦你決定或認為你知道下一步會如何，你就自動地期望自己是對的。然而，你知道的東西隻是和過去有關係，從市場的角度來說，你知道的東西和市場並沒有什麽關係。此時，市場中的任何信息，如果和你的期望不一致，你都會把它們定義解讀為痛苦的。為了避免這種痛苦，你的思想就會有意識地，無意識地讓痛苦回避係統來抵消市場和你期望之間的差別。
What you will experience is commonly referred to as an “illusion.” In a state of illusion, you are neither objective nor connected to the “now moment opportunity flow.” Instead, you become susceptible to committing all the typical trading errors (hesitating, jumping the gun, not predefining your risk, defining your risk but refusing to take the loss and letting the trade turn into a bigger loser, getting out of a winning trade too soon, not taking any profits out of a winning trade, letting a winning trade turn into a loser, moving a stop closer to your entry point, getting stopped out and watching the market trade back in your favor, or trading too large a position in relationship to your equity). The five fundamental truths about the market will keep your expectations neutral, focus your mind in the “now moment opportunity flow” (by disassociating die present moment from your past), and, therefore, eliminate your potential to commit these errors.
你將要經曆的過程一般被稱作“幻想”。在幻想狀態，你既不客觀，也不知道“現在的機會流”。相反，你容易犯典型的交易錯誤（這些錯誤包括猶豫、提前行動、不提前衡量風險、拒絕止損、大虧、提前兌現利潤、贏利時沒有兌現利潤，讓贏利變成了虧損、止損離進場點太近，被止損了，然後市場遠離你而去、倉位太大）。5個基本的事實會讓你的期望保持中性，讓你的思想聚焦於“現在的機會流（不要懷念失去的機會）”，因此，這樣你犯以上錯誤的可能性就小了。
When you stop making trading errors, you’ll begin trusting yourself. As your sense of self-trust increases, so will your sense of self-confidence. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades (act on your edges without reservation or hesitation). The five truths will also create a state of mind in which you will genuinely accept the risks of trading. When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome. When you’re at peace with any outcome, you will experience a carefree, objective state of mind, where you make yourself available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering you (from its perspective) at any given “now moment.”
當你不再犯錯時，你就開始相信自己了。當你的信心越來越大時，你就會感到自信。你越自信，越容易執行交易（利用優勢時沒有保留或猶豫）。5個事實還會創造一種思想，你就會徹底接受交易的風險。當你徹底接受了交易的風險，你就對任何結果坦然了。當你對任何結果坦然了，你的思想狀態就是開放的客觀的，你就會識別出並抓住市場在“任意時刻”提供的任何機會。
The first objective is to integrate as a dominant belief, “I objectively identify my edges.” The challenge now is, how do you get there? How do you transform yourself into a person who can consistently think in the market’s perspective?
第一個目標是把“我客觀地確認我們的優勢”變成主導信念。挑戰是，你如何辦到？你如何把自己轉變成一個一直從市場角度思考的人？
The process of transformation starts with your desire and your willingness to refocus on the object of your desire (self-discipline). Desire is a force. It does not have to coincide or agree with anything that you currently believe to be true about the nature of trading. A clear desire aimed squarely at a specific objective is a very powerful tool. You can use the force of your desire to create an entirely new version or dimension to your identity; shift energy between two or more conflicting concepts; or change the context or polarity of your memories from negative to positive.
這個轉變過程從你的欲望和意願被重新轉移到你的欲望為起點（自律）。欲望是力量，它和你現在關於交易的任何觀點都不同。明確的具體的欲望是非常強有力的工具。你可以利用欲望的力量創造一個全新的自己，讓能量從幾種衝突的概念裏轉移，或改變信念的內容，或把你的記憶從消極變成積極。
I’m sure you are familiar with the saying, “Make up your mind.” The implication of “making up our minds” is that we decide exactly what we desire with so much clarity (absolutely no lingering doubts) and with so much conviction that literally nothing stands in our way, either internally or externally. If there’s enough force behind our resolve, it’s possible to experience a major shift in our mental structure virtually instantaneously. De-activating internal conflicts is not a function of time; it’s a function-focused desire (although it can take a considerable amount of time to get to the point where we really make up our minds). Otherwise, in the absence of extreme clarity and conviction, the technique of self-discipline, over time, will do the job quite nicely (if, of course, you’re willing to use it).
我們經常聽別人說：“你快做決定啊”。這裏的含義是，我們做的決定就是我們的欲望，很清晰（絕對沒有遲疑），沒有任何東西能擋住我們，不管是內部的，還是外部的。如果說我們的決心後麵有足夠的力量，我們就能立即體會到我們的思想正在發生劇烈的改變。去除內部衝突的活躍性不是時間的問題，是欲望的功能（雖然我們需要很長時間以後才會真正下定決心）。如果情況不是這樣，你沒有超級明確的目標，你不是超級有信心，你也沒有紀律，那麽隨著時間的慢慢推移，你也能最終下定決心（當然了，除非你願意這麽做）。
To get there, you must “make up your mind,” with as much conviction and clarity as possible, that more than anything else you desire consistency (the state of mind of trust, confidence, and objectivity) from your trading. This is necessary because if you’re like most traders, you’re going to be up against some very formidable conflicting forces. For example, if you’ve been trading to get high from the euphoria of catching a big move, to impress your family and friends, to be a hero, to fulfill an addiction to random rewards, to be right about your predictions, or for any other reason that has nothing to do with being consistent, then you’ll find the force of these other motivations will not only act as an obstacle making the trading exercise I’m about to give you very difficult, but it could very well be strong enough even to keep you from doing the exercise at all.
要想下定決心，你必須“做決定”，你的決定要有信心，要明確，要比做任何事都要執著（相信、自信和客觀）。如果你像大部分交易者一樣，你就要去抵抗一些有衝突的強大力量，所以你必須做決定。比如，如果你交易的目的是為了捕捉到大行情而過度興奮，是為了向家人和朋友炫耀，是為了成為英雄，是為了得到隨機的回報，是為了預測準確，或者是為了其它和持續一致無關的原因，那麽你會發現這些動機不但會成為交易的障礙，而且這些動機強到你無法做交易。
Remember the boy who had no desire to be like the other children and interact with dogs? In essence, he decided to live with the active contradiction between his minimally charged positive belief that not all dogs are dangerous and his core, negatively charged belief that all dogs are dangerous. He had the ability to perceive friendly dogs, but at the same time found it impossible to interact with them. Unless he desires to change it, the imbalance of energy between these two beliefs will stay exactly as it is for his entire life.
還記得那個小孩嗎？他不願意像其他小孩一樣和狗玩耍。他那微弱的積極的並非所有狗都是危險的信念和他消極的所有狗都是危險的信念互相矛盾，他必須忍受這個矛盾。他有能力看見友好的狗，但是同時無法做到和狗互動。除非他有改變的欲望，否則這兩個不平衡的信念會在他身上一直存在。
To even start this process, you have to want consistency so much that you would be willing to give up all the other reasons, motivations, or agendas you have for trading that aren’t consistent with the process of integrating the beliefs that create consistency. A clear, intense desire is an absolute prerequisite if you’re going to make this process work for you.
為了開始這次練習過程，你對持續一致的要求必須非常強烈，為此你可以放棄其它的理由、動機和計劃，它們都不是持續一致的信念。如果你想讓這個過程有作用，擁有一個明確的強烈的欲望絕對是前提條件。
EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO
練習：向賭場學習利用優勢交易
The object of this exercise is to convince yourself that trading is just a simple game of probabilities (numbers), not much different from pulling the handle of a slot machine. At the micro level, the outcomes to individual edges are independent occurrences and random in relationship to one another. At the macro level, the outcomes over a series of trades will produce consistent results.
這次練習的目的是讓你相信交易就是簡單的概率（數字）遊戲，交易和拉吃角子老虎機的拉杆並沒多大區別。微觀層次上，單個優勢的收益是獨立的隨機的；宏觀層次上，一係列的交易是可以產生持續一致的收益的。
From a probabilities perspective, this means that instead of being the person playing the slot machine, as a trader, you can be the casino, if:
從概率的角度來說，作為交易者，你並不是一個人在玩吃角子老虎機，你也可以像賭場一樣，隻要：
1. you have an edge that genuinely puts the odds of success in your favor;
2. you can think about trading in the appropriate manner (the five fundamental truths); and
3. you can do everything you need to do over a series of trades.
1. 你擁有一個優勢，這個優勢讓你成功的概率變大了；
2. 你對交易有比較客觀的看法（5個基本事實）；且
3. 即使是連續交易很多筆，你也能做到隻做應該做的事。
Then, like the casinos, you will own the game and be a consistent winner.
然後，像賭場一樣，你就會擁有這個遊戲，你就會成為持續一致的玩家。
SETTING UP THE EXERCISE
如何做好這次練習
Pick a market. Choose one actively traded stock or futures contract to trade. It doesn’t matter what it is, as long as it’s liquid and you can afford the margin requirements for trading at least three hundred shares or three futures contracts per trade.
選擇一個市場。選擇一個活躍的股票或期貨合約進行交易。不必在乎是什麽，隻要這個市場的流動性好，你付得起保證金，至少能一次交易300股或3份合約就行了。
Choose a set of market variables that define an edge. This can be any trading system you want. The trading system or methodology you choose can be mathematical, mechanical, or visual (based on patterns in price charts). It doesn’t matter whether you personally design the system or purchase it from someone else, nor do you need to take a long time or be too picky trying to find or develop the best or right system. This exercise is not about system development and it is not a test of your analytical abilities.
選擇一些變數以定義優勢。這是任何交易係統都要做的事，你的交易係統或交易方法可以是數學的、機械的、或視覺的（根據價格圖表模式）。這個交易係統是不是你自己設計的，還是你買來的，都不重要，你不必花時間精挑細選或形成自己最好的係統。這次練習不是關於交易係統的，也不是測試你的分析能力。
In fact, the variables you choose can even be considered mediocre by most traders’ standards, because what you are going to learn from doing this exercise is not dependent upon whether you actually make money. If you consider this exercise an educational expense, it will cut down on the amount of time and effort you might otherwise expend trying to find the most profitable edges.
實際上，因為你從這次練習中學到的東西和你是否真的賺錢了無關，所以你可以選擇一個普通的交易係統來完成這次練習。如果你把這次練習看成是一次教育活動，你就不會為了找到最賺錢的優勢而浪費大量的時間和精力了。
For those of you who might be wondering, I’m not going to make any specific recommendations about what system or variables you should use, because I assume that most of the people reading this book are already well schooled in technical analysis. If you need additional assistance, there are hundreds of books available on the topic, as well as system vendors who are more than willing to sell you their ideas. However, if you’ve made a genuine attempt to do this on your own but are still having problems picking a system, you can contact me at markdouglas.com or tradinginthezone.com and I will make some recommendations.
因為我相信任何閱讀本書的人都已經學過了技術分析，所以我沒有推薦任何交易係統或變數。如果你需要更多的幫助，書店裏有幾百本書談這些話題的書，還有一些賣係統的商人也很樂意把他們的思想賣給你。然而，如果你確實想自己做練習，但自己確實沒有交易係統，你可以通過網站markdouglas.com或tradinginthezone.com聯係我，我會推薦一些交易係統給你。
Whatever system you choose to use has to fit within the following specifications.
無論你選擇什麽樣的交易係統，這個交易係統應該符合以下特點。
Trade Entry. The variables you use to define your edge have to be absolutely precise. The system has to be designed so that it does not require you to make any subjective decisions or judgments about whether your edge is present. If the market is aligned in a way that conforms with the rigid variables of your system, then you have a trade; if not, then you don’t have a trade. Period! No other extraneous or random factors can enter into the equation.
進場點。你定義優勢的變數必須絕對精確。你的係統不能讓你有主觀決定或判斷。如果市場和你的係統符合，那麽你就要交易；如果不符合，你就不要交易。這個過程不能被外部因素或隨機因素中斷。
Stop-Loss Exit. The same conditions apply to getting out of a trade that’s not working. Your methodology has to tell you exactly how much you need to risk to find out if the trade is going to work. There is always an optimum point at which the possibility of a trade not working is so diminished, especially in relationship to the profit potential, that you’re better off taking your loss and getting your mind clear to act on the next edge. Let the market structure determine where this optimum point is, rather than using an arbitrary dollar amount that you are willing to risk on a trade.
止損出場點。對於失敗的交易也是同理。你的方法必須明確地告訴你如果某筆交易失敗了，你最多隻能虧損多少。總是有一些極好的點，在這些點位，交易失敗的概率很小，尤其是贏利的時候，所以在虧損時，你要接受虧損並把注意力轉到下一個優勢上麵。讓市場結構去決定最好的點位在哪裏，不要自己武斷地去判斷，不要無謂地虧錢。
In any case, whatever system you choose, it has to be absolutely exact, requiring no subjective decision making. Again, no extraneous or random variables can enter into the equation.
無論你選擇了什麽樣的交易係統，它要絕對的準確，不能主觀做決定。再次申明，外部變數和隨機變數都有可能會幹擾這次練習。
Time Frame. Your trading methodology can be in any time frame that suits you, but all your entry and exit signals have to be based in the same time frame. For example, if you use variables that identify a particular support and resistance pattern on a 30-minute bar chart, then your risk and profit objective calculations also have to be determined in a 30-minute time frame.
時間框架。你可以根據情況決定最適合你自己的時間框架，但是所有的進場和出場信號必須是根據同一個時間框架發出的。比如，如果你根據30分鍾竹形圖確認支撐和阻力，那麽你的風險和利潤目標也要根據30分鍾圖來計算。
However, trading in one time frame does not preclude you from using other time frames as filters. For example, you could have as a filter a rule that states you’re only going to take trades that are in the direction of the major trend. There’s an old trading axiom that “The trend is your friend.” It means that you have a higher probability of success when you trade in the direction of the major trend, if there is one. In fact, the lowest-risk trade, with the highest probability of success, occurs when you are buying dips (support) in an up-trending market or selling rallies (resistance) in a down-trending market.
然而，在同一個時間框架內交易並不排除你用其它時間框架來過濾交易機會。比如，你的過濾原則是沿著主趨勢交易。有一句老的格言叫：“趨勢是你的朋友”。它意味著如果你沿著主趨勢交易，那麽你成功的概率高。實際上，風險最低，成功率最高的交易發生在上漲趨勢的回調點（支撐點）和下跌趨勢的反彈點（阻力點）。
To illustrate how this rule works, let’s say that you’ve chosen a precise way of identifying support and resistance patterns in a 30-minute time frame as your edge. The rule is that you are only going to take trades in the direction of the major trend. A trending market is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows for an up-trending market and a series of lower highs and lower lows for a down-trending market. The longer the time frame, the more significant the trend, so a trending market on a daily bar chart is more significant than a trending market on a 30-minute bar chart. Therefore, the trend on the daily bar chart would take precedence over the trend on the 30-minute bar chart and would be considered the major trend.
為了說明這個原則如何工作，假如說你利用30分鍾圖精準地定義了支撐和阻力模式作為你的優勢。這個原則隻讓你沿著主趨勢交易。有趨勢的市場就是上漲時一個高點比一個高點高，一個低點比一個低點高；下跌時一個高點比一個高點低，一個低點比一個低點低。時間框架越長，趨勢越明顯，所以日線圖上的趨勢比30分鍾圖上的趨勢明顯。因此，日線圖上的趨勢比30分鍾圖上的趨勢重要，因此就是主趨勢。
To determine the direction of the major trend, look at what is happening on a daily bar chart. If the trend is up on the daily, you are only going to look for a sell-off or retracement down to what your edge defines as support on the 30-minute chart. That’s where you will become a buyer. On the other hand, if the trend is down on the daily, you are only going to look for a rally up to what your edge defines as a resistance level to be a seller on the 30-minute chart.
要想確定主趨勢的方向，就要看看日線圖上發生了什麽。如果日線圖上趨勢向上，你就要在30分鍾圖上等待價格回調到支撐區，這就是你定義的優勢，此時你要買入。另一方麵，如果日線圖上趨勢是下跌的，你就要在30分鍾圖上找到反彈時遇到的阻力區，這就是你定義的優勢，此時你要賣出。
Your objective is to determine, in a down-trending market, how far it can rally on an intraday basis and still not violate the symmetry of the longer trend. In an up-trending market, your objective is to determine how far it can sell off on an intraday basis without violating the symmetry of the longer trend. There’s usually very little risk associated with these intraday support and resistance points, because you don’t have to let the market go very far beyond them to tell you the trade isn’t working.
在下跌的市場中，你的目標是確認日內反彈到哪裏，還不能破壞長期趨勢；在上漲的市場中，你的目標是確認日內下跌到哪裏，還不能破壞長期趨勢。這種根據日內的支撐點和阻力點做的交易風險比較小，因為如果市場走的太遠，你就知道這筆交易有問題了。
Taking Profits. Believe it or not, of all the skills one needs to learn to be a consistently successful trader, learning to take profits is probably the most difficult to master. A multitude of personal, often very complicated psychological factors, as well as the effectiveness of one’s market analysis, enter into the equation. Unfortunately, sorting out this complex matrix of issues goes way beyond the scope of this book. I point this out so that those of you who might be inclined to beat yourselves up for leaving money on the table can relax and give yourselves a break. Even after you’ve acquired all the other skills, it might take a very long time before you get this one down pat.
兌現利潤。不管你信不信，所有成為持續一致成功交易者的技術中，如何兌現利潤是最難學的。如何兌現利潤要求你必須綜合考慮很多因素，包括人的因素、複雜的心理因素和個人分析的有效性。很可惜，本書並不會討論如何理清這些複雜的因素。我把這個指出來，這樣當你遇到了失算的交易時，你就應該知道不要再交易了，應該休息一下。即使你已經掌握了所有的相關技術，你還要花不少時間去消化它們。
Don’t despair. There is a way to set up a profit-taking regime that at least fulfills the objective of the fifth principle of consistency (“I pay myself as the market makes money available to me”). If you’re going to establish a belief in yourself that you’re a consistent winner, then you will have to create experiences that correspond with that belief. Because the object of the belief is winning consistently, how you take profits in a winning trade is of paramount importance.
不要絕望。有一個辦法可以建立兌現利潤的方法，而且至少會符合第5個持續一致原則的目標（“我讓市場幫我賺錢”）。如果你想建立你是持續一致的贏家的信念，那麽你就要創造一個和這個信念一致的體驗。因為信念的目標是持續一致地贏利，那麽如何兌現利潤就顯得非常重要。
This is the only part of the exercise in which you will have some degree of discretion about what you do. The underlying premise is that, in a winning trade, you never know how far the market is going to go in your direction. Markets rarely go straight up or straight down. (Many of the NASDAQ Internet stocks in the fall of 1999 were an obvious exception to this statement.) Typically, markets go up and then retrace some portion of the upward move; or go down and then retrace some portion of the downward move.
本練習中，這是唯一需要謹慎的地方。言下之意是，如果你的倉位是賺錢的，你根本不知道市場要沿著對你有利的方向走多元。市場很少直上直下（1999年秋天很多納斯達克的互聯網股票是明顯例外情況）。一般，市場上漲後會回調一定比例，或者是下跌後會反彈一定比例。
These proportional retracements can make it very difficult to stay in a winning trade. You would have to be an extremely sophisticated and objective analyst to make the distinction between a normal retracement, when the market still has the potential to move in the original direction of your trade, and a retracement that isn’t normal, when the potential for any further movement in the original direction of your trade is greatly diminished, if not nonexistent.
這種一定程度的回調和反彈讓你很難持有贏利的倉位。你必須非常有經驗，還要客觀，以確定市場是不是正常的回調，市場是不是還要沿著原方向前進。如果回調是不正常的，那麽市場沿著對你的倉位有利的方向前進的可能性就大大降低了。
If you never know how far the market is going to go in your direction, then when and how do you take profits? The question of when is a function of your ability to read the market and pick the most likely spots for it to stop. In the absence of an ability to do this objectively, the best course of action from a psychological perspective is to divide your position into thirds (or quarters), and scale out the position as the market moves in your favor. If you are trading futures contracts, this means your minimum position for a trade is at least three (or four) contracts. For stocks, the minimum position is any number of shares that is divisible by three (or four), so you don’t end up with an odd-lot order.
如果你不知道是否市場對你繼續有利，那麽你如何兌現利潤呢？這個問題要求你有能力解讀市場並找到比較好的出場點。如果沒有能力客觀地處理，最好的辦法就是把你的倉位分成3份（或4份），當市場繼續沿著對你有利的方向前進時你分批平倉。如果你交易的是期貨，這要求你至少交易3份合約（或4份）。對於股票，最少的股數要能被3（或4）整除，這樣你不會出現散股。
Here’s the way I scale out of a winning position. When I first started trading, especially during the first three years (1979 through 1981), I would thoroughly and regularly analyze the results of my trading activities. One of the things I discovered was that I rarely got stopped out of a trade for a loss, without the market first going at least a little way in my direction. On average, only one out of every ten trades was an immediate loser that never went in my direction. Out of the other 25 to 30 percent of the trades that were ultimately losers, the market usually went in my direction by three or four tics before revising and stopping me out. I calculated that if I got into the habit of taking at least a third of my original position off every time the market gave me those three or four tics, at the end of the year the accumulated winnings would go a long way towards paying my expenses. I was right. To this day, I always, without reservation or hesitation, take off a portion of a winning position whenever the market gives me a little to take. How much that might be depends on the market; it will be a different amount in each case. For example, in Treasury bond futures, I take a third of my position off when I get four tics. In the S&P futures, I take a third off for a profit of one and a half to two full points.
我是這樣分批平掉贏利的倉位的。當我剛開始交易時，尤其是頭3年（1971年到1981年），我會徹底地完全地分析我的交易行為。我發現我很少虧損。平均地說，10筆交易中隻有1筆是虧損的。在最終虧損的交易中，有25%到30%的交易我曾經都賺了幾個基點。我計算了一下，如果我能養成習慣，當我賺了幾個基點時，我就平掉至少三分之一的倉位，這樣到了年底，我的贏利應該可以支付我的花銷了。我是對的。即使在今天，隻要倉位贏利了，我就會毫不保留毫不猶豫地兌現部分贏利的倉位。根據市場不同，我每次平倉的數量會有所不同。比如，對於債券期貨，如果我賺了4個基點，我會平倉三分之一；對於標準普爾股指期貨，如果我賺了1.5到2個點，我會平倉三分之一。
In a bond trade, I usually don’t risk more than six tics to find out if the trade is going to work. Using a three-contract trade as an example, here’s how it works: If I get into a position and the market immediately goes against me without giving me at least four tics first, I get stopped out of the trade for an 18-tic loss, but as I’ve indicated, this doesn’t happen often. More likely, the trade goes in my favor by some small amount before becoming a loser. If it goes in my favor by at least four tics, I take those four tics on one contract. What I have done is reduce my total risk on the other two contracts by 10 tics. If the market then stops me out of the last two contracts, the net loss on the trade is only 8 tics.
在債券交易中，我所冒的風險一般不超過6個基點。用3份合約的交易做例子，情況是這樣的：如果我建倉了，市場立刻對我不利，連4個基點的利潤都沒有，我止損時就虧損了18個基點，但是我說了，這樣的事並不經常發生。大部分情況下，市場在對我不利之前還是對我有利的。如果對我有利4個基點，我平倉1份合約。那麽剩下來2份合約的風險是10個基點。如果市場又讓我止損了，我的淨虧損隻是8個基點。
If I don’t get stopped out on the last two contracts and the market moves in my direction, I take the next third of the position off at some predetermined profit objective. This is based on some longer time frame support or resistance, or on the test of a previous significant high or low. When I take profits on the second third, I also move the stop-loss to my original entry point. Now I have a net profit on the trade regardless of what happens to the last third of the position.
如果市場對我有利，最後2份合約沒有被止損，我在特定的利潤目標平倉第2份合約。這個利潤目標是根據更長的時間框架的支撐或阻力決定的，或是根據價格對之前明顯的最高點和最低點的測試來做決定的。當我平倉第2份合約時，我會把止損點設置成最初的進場點。這樣對於最後1份合約，無論市場怎麽走，我的淨利潤都是正數。
In other words, I now have a “risk-free opportunity.” I can’t emphasize enough nor can the publisher make the words on this page big enough to stress how important it is for you to experience the state of “risk-free opportunity.” When you set up a situation in which there is “risk-free opportunity,” there’s no way to lose unless something extremely unusual happens, like a limit up or limit down move through your stop. If, under normal circumstances, there’s no way to lose, you get to experience what it really feels like to be in a trade with a relaxed, carefree state of mind.
換句話說，我現在的機會是“無風險的機會”。我不知道怎麽強調，也不知道出版社能不能把本頁的字放大，才能讓你明白“無風險的機會”是多麽的重要。一旦你實現了“無風險的機會”，除非出現了像漲停或跌停這樣的意外，一般你是不會虧損的。在正常情況下，你是不會再虧損了，此時你就能體會到什麽叫做放鬆和無憂無慮。
To illustrate this point, imagine that you are in a winning trade; the market made a fairly significant move in your direction, but you didn’t take any profits because you thought it was going even further. However, instead of going further, the market trades all the way back to or very close to your original entry point. You panic and, as a result, liquidate the trade, because you don’t want to let what was once a winning trade turn into a loser. But as soon as you’re out, the market bounces right back into what would have been a winning trade. If you had locked in some profits by scaling out, putting yourself in a risk-free opportunity situation, it s very unlikely that you would have panicked or felt any stress or anxiety for that matter.
為了說明這點，想象你的倉位是贏利的，市場對你有利，但是你沒有兌現利潤，因為你想市場還要走的更遠。然而，市場沒有走的更遠，市場又回到了你的進場點附近。你慌張了，於是平倉了，因為你不想把利潤變成虧損。但是當你剛平倉，市場又漲回去了。如果你在贏利的時候分批平倉，這樣就能鎖定部分利潤，你就得到了沒有風險的機會，那麽你就不會慌張，也不會感到焦急。
I still have a third of my position left. What now? I look for the most likely place for the market to stop. This is usually a significant high or low in a longer time frame. I place my order to liquidate just below that spot in a long position or just above that spot in a short position. I place my orders just above or just below because I don’t care about squeezing the last tic out of the trade. I have found over the years that trying to do that just isn’t worth it.
我還有三分之一的倉位，現在該怎麽辦？我尋找市場最可能會停下來的點位。通常這是更長的時間框架裏麵的明顯的最高點或最低點。如果是做多的，我就把出場單子下在最高點下麵一點點；如果是做空的，我就把出場單下在最低點的上麵一點點。我這麽做是因為我不想去賺最後一個基點，多年來，我發現這個嚐試是不值得的。
One other factor you need to take into consideration is your risk-to-reward ratio. The risk-to-reward ratio is the dollar value of how much risk you have to take relative to the profit potential. Ideally, your risk-to-reward ratio should be at least 3:1, which means you are only risking one dollar for every three dollars of profit potential. If your edge and the way you scale out of your trades give you a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio, your winning trade percentage can be less than 50 percent and you will still make money consistently.
你還要考慮一個因素，那就是你的風險回報比。也就是你願意承受的風險和潛在利潤的金額比。比較理想的風險回報比至少是1: 3，這意味著你願意冒1元的風險去賺3元的潛在利潤。如果你的優勢和你平倉的方式讓你的風險回報比是1:3，同時你的成功率低於50%，你仍然可以繼續持續一致地賺錢。
A 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio is ideal. However, for the purposes of this exercise, it doesn’t matter what it is, nor does it matter how effectively you scale out, as long as you do it. Do the best you can to pay yourself at reasonable profit levels when the market makes the money available. Every portion of a trade that you take off as a winner will contribute to your belief that you are a consistent winner. All the numbers will eventually come into better alignment as your belief in your ability to be consistent becomes stronger.
1: 3的風險回報比是比較理想的。然而，從這次練習的目的來說，風險回報比並不重要，你平倉的方式也不重要。當市場條件有利時，盡力去擴大利潤。每次贏利都會讓你相信你是持續一致的贏家。隨著贏利數字的增加，這些數字就能加強你持續一致的信念。
Trading in Sample Sizes. The typical trader practically lives or dies (emotionally) on the results of the most recent trade. If it was a winner, he’ll gladly go to the next trade; if it wasn’t, he’ll start questioning the viability of his edge. To find out what variables work, how well they work, and what doesn’t work, we need a systematic approach, one that doesn’t take any random variables into consideration. This means that we have to expand our definition of success or failure from the limited trade-by-trade perspective of the typical trader to a sample size of 20 trades or more.
按照樣本數字交易。一般交易者容易受最近幾筆交易結果的影響而上天入地（情緒化反應）。如果交易賺錢了，他會高興地繼續交易；如果交易虧錢了，他會懷疑自己的優勢。為了搞明白哪個變數起作用，它們是如何工作的，工作原理是什麽，我們需要一個係統的方法，這個方法不會考慮隨機的變數。這意味著我們決定成敗的樣本數不能太少，最少要做20筆交易。
Any edge you decide on will be based on some limited number of market variables or relationships between those variables that measure the market’s potential to move either up or down. From the market’s perspective, each trader who has the potential to put on or take off a trade can act as a force on price movement and is, therefore, a market variable. No edge or technical system can take into consideration every trader and his reasons for putting on or taking off a trade. As a result, any set of market variables that defines an edge is like a snapshot of something very fluid, capturing only a limited portion of all the possibilities.
你所用的任何優勢都是根據一些市場變數或這些變數之間的關係確定的。從市場的角度來說，每個交易者進場或出場都會影響價格的波動，因此也是市場變數。沒有任何優勢或技術交易係統能把每個交易者和他的進出場理由考慮在內。因此，任何定義優勢的市場變數都像是對液體的快照，它隻是抓住了所有可能性的一部分。
When you apply any set of variables to the market, they may work very well over an extended period of time, but after a while you may find that their effectiveness diminishes. That’s because the underlying dynamics of the interaction between all the participants (the market) is changing. New traders come into the market with their own unique ideas of what is high and what is low, and other traders leave. Little by little, these changes affect the underlying dynamics of how the market moves. No snapshot (rigid set of variables) can take these subtle changes into consideration.
當你運用任何變數交易時，也許它們在相當長的一段時間都有效，但是過了一段時間，你發現它們的效果消失了。那是因為所有參與者（也就是市場）互動的動力在變化。新的交易者進入市場，他們對點位高低的看法是獨特的，其他交易者則離開了。慢慢地，這些變化影響了市場波動下麵的力量。沒有任何辦法（一套係統）能把這些微妙的細節變化考慮在內。
You can compensate for these subtle changes in the underlying dynamics of market movement and still maintain a consistent approach by trading in sample sizes. Your sample size has to be large enough to give your variables a fair and adequate test, but at the same time small enough so that if their effectiveness diminishes, you can detect it before you lose an inordinate amount of money. I have found that a sample size of at least 20 trades fulfills both of these requirements.
你可以按照樣本數字交易，以彌補這些微妙的變化，同時還能維持持續一致的方法。你的樣本數字要足夠大，讓你的變數得到公平和充足的測試；與此同時樣本數字也不能太大，以防止它們的有效性降低，這樣你就能及時發現問題，不會虧的太多。我發現樣本數字至少是20筆才能同時滿足以上要求。
Testing. Once you decide on a set of variables that conform to these specifications, you need to test them to see how well they work. If you have the appropriate software to do this, you are probably already familiar with the procedures. If you don’t have testing software, you can either forward test your variables or hire a testing service to do it for you. If you need a recommendation for a testing service, contact me at markdouglas.com or tradinginthezone.com for a referral. In any case, keep in mind that the object of the exercise is to use trading as a vehicle to learn how to think objectively (in the market’s perspective), as if you were a casino operator. Right now, the bottom-line performance of your system isn’t very important, but it is important that you have a good idea of what you can expect in the way of a win-to-loss ratio (the number of winning trades relative to the number of losing trades for your sample size).
測試。一旦你確認了你的變數符合這些要求，你就要測試它們，看看是否有效。如果你有合適的軟件去做測試，你可能早就熟悉了這個過程。如果你沒有測試軟件，你可以讓專業的測試公司幫你測試。如果你需要我推薦測試公司給你，可以通過markdouglas.com或tradinginthezone.com找我谘詢。無論是哪種情況，請記住這次練習的目的是利用交易去學習如何客觀思考（從市場的角度），就當你是賭場擁有者。現在，你的係統業績如何並不重要，但是重要的是要知道如何衡量贏虧比（樣本數字中贏利的筆數比虧損的筆數）。
Accepting the Risk. A requirement of this exercise is that you know in advance exactly what your risk is on each trade in your 20-trade sample size. As you now know, knowing the risk and accepting the risk are two different things. I want you to be as comfortable as possible with the dollar value of the risk you are taking in this exercise. Because the exercise requires that you use a 20-trade sample size, the potential risk is that you will lose on all 20 trades. This is obviously the worst-case scenario. It is as likely an occurrence as that you will-win on all 20 trades, which means it isn’t very likely. Nevertheless, it is a possibility. Therefore, you should set up the exercise in such a way that you can accept the risk (in dollar value) of losing on all 20 trades.
接受風險。這次練習要求你在每筆交易前能提前知道自己的風險是多少。正如你所知，知道和風險和接受風險是兩回事。我希望你能平靜地接受練習中的風險數字金額。因為這次練習要求你交易20筆，潛在的風險是你要虧損20筆，顯然這是最差的情況。就像你要贏20筆一樣，這也是不太可能的。無論如何，這就是可能性。因此，這次練習的前提是你願意接受所有20筆的風險（用金額表示）。
For example, if you’re trading S&P futures, your edge might require that you risk three full points per contract to find out if the trade is going to work. Since the exercise requires that you trade a minimum of three contracts per trade, the total dollar value of the risk per trade is $2,250, if you use big contracts. The accumulated dollar value of risk if you lose on all 20 trades is $45,000, You may not be comfortable risking $45,000 on this exercise.
比如，如果你在交易標注普爾股指期貨，你的優勢要求你所冒的風險是每份合約3個點。因為這次練習要求你至少交易3份合約，所以總體的風險是2250美元（張軼注：這是作者按照當時的股指期貨合約價值計算出來的）。如果你20筆都虧損了，那麽這20筆的總風險是45000美元。也許你會認為45000美元的風險太大了，讓你覺得不太舒服。
If you’re not comfortable, you can reduce the dollar value of the risk by trading S&P mini contracts (E-Mini). They are one-fifth the value of the big contracts, so the total dollar value of the risk per trade goes down to $450 and the accumulated risk for all 20 trades is $9,000. You can do the same thing if you are trading stocks: Just keep on reducing the number of shares per trade until you get to a point where you are comfortable with the total accumulated risk for all 20 trades.
如果你覺得不舒服，你可以通過做標注普爾的迷你合約。合同價值是大合同的五分之一，所以每筆交易的風險是450美元，20筆就是9000美元。股票也是同理：減少股票數，直到你對20筆的總風險感到比較舒服為止。
What I don’t want you to do is change your established risk parameters to satisfy your comfort levels. If, based on your research, you have determined that a three-point risk in the S&Ps is the optimum distance you must let the market trade against your edge to tell you it isn’t worth staying in the position, then leave it at three points. Change this variable only if it is warranted from a technical analysis perspective.
我不希望你去改變風險參數以讓自己舒服點。如果根據你的研究，你認為標準普爾3點的風險是你能承受的最大風險，那麽就是3點。除非是技術分析證明要求改變這個變數。
If you’ve done everything possible to reduce your position size and find that you still aren’t comfortable with the accumulated dollar value of losing on all 20 trades, then I suggest you do the exercise with a simulated brokerage service. With a simulated brokerage service, everything about the process of putting on and taking off trades, including fills and brokerage statements, is exactly the same as with an actual brokerage firm, except that the trades are not actually entered into the market. As a result, you don’t actually have any money at risk. A simulated brokerage service is an excellent tool to practice with in real time, under real market conditions; it is also an excellent tool for forward testing a trading system. There may be others, but the only service of this nature that I know of is Auditrack.com.
如果你盡力降低了倉位，還是發現你對20筆的風險總額不放心，我建議你找模擬經紀公司幫你做這次練習。在模擬經紀公司，交易的所有過程，包括建倉和平倉，包括費用和交易結算單都是和真實的經紀公司一樣，隻是交易不是真實的。因此，你不必拿真錢去冒險。模擬經紀公司提供的服務工具是優秀的實戰工具，在真實的環境下實戰，也是一個優秀的交易係統測試軟件。這樣的公司應該不止一家，但我隻知道一家叫auditrack.com。
Doing the Exercise. When you have a set of variables that conforms to the specifications described, you know exactly what each trade is going to cost to find out if it’s going to work, you have a plan for taking profits, and you know what you can expect as a win-loss ratio for your sample size, then you are ready to begin the exercise.
開始練習。當你的變數和要求的一致了，你也知道了每筆的風險，你也有兌現利潤的計劃，你也知道樣本數字的贏虧比，那麽你就可以開始練習了。
The rules are simple: Trade your system exactly as you have designed it. This means you have to commit yourself to trading at least the next 20 occurrences of your edge - not just the next trade or the next couple of trades, but all 20, no matter what. You cannot deviate, use or be influenced by any other extraneous factors, or change the variables that define your edge until you have completed a full sample size.
規則很簡單：完全按照你的係統交易。這意味著你至少要交易20筆——不是這筆或下幾筆，無論如何，必須堅持交易20筆。在你完成所有的20筆之前，你不能受外界的幹擾，也不能改變變數。
By setting up the exercise with rigid variables that define your edge, relatively fixed odds, and a commitment to take every trade in your sample size, you have created a trading regime that duplicates how a casino operates. Why do casinos make consistent money on an event that has a random outcome? Because they know that over a series of events, the odds are in their favor. They also know that to realize the benefits of the favorable odds, they have to participate in every event. They can’t engage in a process of picking and choosing which hand of blackjack, spin of the roulette wheel, or roll of the dice they are going to participate in, by trying to predict in advance the outcome of each of these individual events.
這次練習用死板的變數以定義優勢，相對確定了概率，並確定要進行所有的交易，你相當於你開發了一個交易係統，它複製了賭場的運作方式。為什麽賭場能在隨機的結果上持續一致地賺錢？因為他們知道，隻要次數夠多，概率就對他們有利。他們同樣知道為了實現高概率，他們必須參與每個賭局。對於21點，輪盤賭和擲骰子，他們無法提前預測到單個賭局的結果。
If you believe in the five fundamental truths and you believe that trading is just a probability game, not much different from pulling the handle of a slot machine, then you’ll find that this exercise will be effortless - effortless because your desire to follow through with your commitment to take every trade in your sample size and your belief in the probabilistic nature of trading will be in complete harmony. As a result, there will be no fear, resistance, or distracting thoughts. What could stop you from doing exactly what you need to do, when you need to do it, without reservation or hesitation? Nothing!
如果你相信5個基本的事實，你也相信交易就是概率遊戲，和拉吃角子老虎記得拉杆沒有什麽不同，那麽你就會發現這次練習是輕鬆的——輕鬆是因為你承諾要進行所有的交易和你對交易本質是概率這個信念是一致的。因此你不會害怕，沒有阻力，也不會分心。有什麽東西會阻止你毫不保留毫不猶豫地去做你必須做的事？沒有！
On the other hand, if it hasn’t already occurred to you, this exercise is going to create a head-on collision between your desire to think objectively in probabilities and all the forces inside you that are in conflict with this desire. The amount of difficulty you have in doing this exercise will be in direct proportion to the degree to which these conflicts exist. To one degree or another, you will experience the exact opposite of what I described in the previous paragraph. Don’t be surprised if you find your first couple of attempts at doing this exercise virtually impossible.
另一方麵，如果你還沒有意識到的話，這次練習會在你的客觀思考概率的欲望和所有與之相衝突的欲望之間產生碰撞。你做這次練習的難度和這些衝突的程度成正比。在某種程度上，你會得到我上一段講的相反的體驗。如果你發現做這次練習很困難，不要感到吃驚。
How should you handle these conflicts? Monitor yourself and use the technique of self-discipline to refocus on your objective. Write down the five fundamental truths and the seven principles of consistency, and keep them in front of you at all times when you are trading. Repeat them to yourself frequently, with conviction. Every time you notice that you are thinking, saying, or doing something that is inconsistent with these truths or principles, acknowledge the conflict. Don’t try to deny the existence of conflicting forces. They are simply parts of your psyche that are (understandably) arguing for their versions of the truth.
你應該如何處理這些衝突？監督自己，並利用自律技術聚焦於你的目標。寫下5個基本事實和7個持續一致性的原則，當交易時，一直把它們放在麵前。不斷地重複它們，要有信心。每次你發現你想的、說的、做的都和這些事實或原則一致，你就接受了衝突。不要擔心對衝突力量的拒絕。這隻是你部分的心理在要求表達真實的自己（表示理解）。
When this happens, refocus on exactly what you are trying to accomplish. If your purpose is to think objectively, disrupt the association process (so you can stay in the “now moment opportunity flow”); step through your fears of being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table (so you can stop making errors and start trusting yourself), then you’ll know exactly what you need to do. Follow the rules of your trading regime as best you can. Doing exactly what your rules call for while focused on the five fundamental truths will eventually resolve all your conflicts about the true nature of trading.
當這事發生時，聚焦於自己要完成的事就行了。如果你的目標是客觀思考，瓦解聯想過程（所以你可以處於“現在的機會流”），不再犯錯，不再虧損，不再錯過機會，不再失算（這樣你就不會犯錯了，開始相信自己），然後你就知道你要具體做什麽了。盡量按照交易係統的原則去交易。完全按照5個基本事實的原則去做，這樣就會最終解決你交易時的所有衝突。
Every time you actually do something that confirms one of the five fundamental truths, you will be drawing energy out of the conflicting beliefs and adding energy to a belief in probabilities and in your ability to produce consistent results. Eventually, your new beliefs will become so powerful that it will take no conscious effort on your part to think and act in a way that is consistent with your objectives.
每次你做的事和5個基本事實一致，你就把衝突信念的能量轉移到概率的信念，你就有能力產生持續一致的收益。最終，你的新信念就會變得很強大，你就不需要意識上的努力就能和你的目標保持一致。
You will know for sure that thinking in probabilities is a functioning part of your identity when you will be able to go through one sample size of at least 20 or more trades without any difficulty, resistance, or conflicting thoughts distracting you from doing exactly what your mechanical system calls for. Then, and only then, will you be ready to move into the more advanced subjective or intuitive stages of trading.
一旦你在沒有困難、阻力、衝突想法和分心的前提下完成了20筆或更多的交易，你肯定會明白用概率思考就是你的一部分功能。此時，僅僅是此時，你才會進入更高級的主觀交易，或叫直覺交易。
A FINAL NOTE
最後的提醒
Try not to prejudge how long it will take before you can get through at least one sample size of trades, following your plan without deviation, distracting thoughts, or hesitation to act. It will take as long as it takes. If you wanted to be a professional golfer, it wouldn’t be unusual to dedicate yourself to hitting 10,000 or more golf balls until the precise combination of movements in your swing were so ingrained in your muscle memory that you no longer had to think about it consciously.
執行你的交易計劃時不要有偏離、分心或猶豫，也不要擔心何時才能完成最後一筆交易，有多長就堅持多久。如果你想成為專業的高爾夫球手，你必須擊球10000次以上，才讓你的動作和你的肌肉記憶保持一致，這樣，你根本不用去想就能打出好球。
When you’re out there hitting those golf balls, you aren’t playing an actual game against someone or winning the big tournament. You do it because you believe that skill acquisition and practice will help you win. Learning to be a consistent winner as a trader isn’t any different.
當你在外麵打高爾夫球時，你不是在和別人比賽，也不是參加什麽大型的競標賽。你這麽做是因為你相信練習會幫助你去贏。學習成為一個持續一致的贏家也是同樣的道理。
I wish you great prosperity, and would say “good luck,” but you really won’t need luck if you work at acquiring the appropriate skills.
我希望你能致富，我想說：“祝你好運”，但是在得到合適的技術方麵，你是不能依靠運氣的。
ATTITUDE SURVEY
態度調查
1. To make money as a trader you have to know what the market is going to do next.
Agree Disagree
25. 作為交易者，如果想賺錢，你必須知道市場下一步怎麽走。
同意 不同意
2. Sometimes I find myself thinking that there must be a way to trade without having to take a loss.
Agree Disagree
26. 有時候我在想，一定有不虧錢的交易方法。
同意 不同意
3. Making money as a trader is primarily a function of analysis.
Agree Disagree
27. 交易者基本上是靠分析賺錢的。
同意 不同意
4. Losses are an unavoidable component of trading.
Agree Disagree
28. 虧損是交易不可避免的元素。
同意 不同意
5. My risk is always defined before I enter a trade.
Agree Disagree
29. 我總是在交易前衡量風險。
同意 不同意
6. In my mind there is always a cost associated with finding out what the market may do next.
Agree Disagree
30. 我認為，搞清楚市場下一步怎麽走總是需要成本的。
同意 不同意
7. I wouldn’t even bother putting on the next trade if I wasn’t sure that it was going to be a winner.
Agree Disagree
31. 如果我不能肯定自己會贏，我根本不會交易。
同意 不同意
8. The more a trader learns about the markets and how they behave, the easier it will be for him to execute his trades.
Agree Disagree
32. 交易者對市場和市場行為的了解越多，他就越能輕鬆地執行交易。
同意 不同意
9. My methodology tells me exactly under what market conditions to either enter or exit a trade.
Agree Disagree
33. 我的方法能明確地告訴我在什麽情況下進場或出場。
同意 不同意
10. Even when I have a clear signal to reverse my position, I find it extremely difficult to do.
Agree Disagree
34. 即使我有明確的反轉信號，我發現超級難執行。
同意 不同意
11. I have sustained periods of consistent success usually followed by some fairly drastic draw-downs in my equity.
Agree Disagree
35. 我的資金曲線總是在持續上漲一段時間後出現災難性地衰落。
同意 不同意
12. When I first started trading I would describe my trading methodology as haphazard, meaning some success in between a lot of pain.
Agree Disagree
36. 當我第一次開始交易時，我覺得我的交易方法有偶然性，也就是說有時能賺點，更多的則是痛苦。
同意 不同意
13. I often find myself feeling that the markets are against me personally.
Agree Disagree
37. 我總是感覺市場在和我作對。
同意 不同意
14. As much as I might try to “let go,” I find it very difficult to put past emotional wounds behind me.
Agree Disagree
38. 雖然我努力地去“放手”，卻發現很難忘記過去的情緒創傷。
同意 不同意
15. I have a money management philosophy that is founded in the principle of always taking some money out of the market when the market makes it available.
Agree Disagree
39. 我有一個資金管理方法，當市場對我有利時，我總是轉走一部分資金。
同意 不同意
16. A trader’s job is to identify patterns in the markets’ behavior that represent an opportunity and then to determine the risk of finding out if these patterns will play themselves out as they have in the past.
Agree Disagree
40. 交易者的工作就是確認市場的行為模式，發現機會，然後衡量風險，看看這些模式是否如它們過去表現的那樣。
同意 不同意
17. Sometimes I just can’t help feeling that I am a victim of the market.
Agree Disagree
41. 我有時情不自禁地覺得我是市場的受害者。
同意 不同意
18. When I trade I usually try to stay focused in one time frame.
Agree Disagree
42. 當我交易時，我通常隻關注一個時間框架。
同意 不同意
19. Trading successfully requires a degree of mental flexibility far beyond the scope of most people.
Agree Disagree
43. 成功的交易需要比大部分人更多的思維靈活性。
同意 不同意
20. There are times when I can definitely feel the flow of the market; however, I often have difficulty acting on these feelings.
Agree Disagree
44. 我有時絕對能感覺到市場的流動，然而我總是很難根據這個感覺行動。
同意 不同意
21. There are many times when I am in a profitable trade and I know the move is basically over, but I still won’t take my profits.
Agree Disagree
45. 很多時候，我的倉位賺錢了，我也知道行情基本結束了，但我總是不願意兌現利潤。
同意 不同意
22. No matter how much money I make in a trade, I am rarely ever satisfied and feel that I could have made more.
Agree Disagree
46. 無論一筆交易賺了多少錢，我總是不滿足，總以為自己可以賺的更多。
同意 不同意
23. When I put on a trade, I feel I have a positive attitude. I anticipate all of the money I could make from the trade in a positive way.
Agree Disagree
47. 當我建倉時，我覺得我有積極態度。我希望能賺到所有的錢。
同意 不同意
24. The most important component in a trader’s ability to accumulate money over time is having a belief in his own consistency.
Agree Disagree
48. 交易者長期賺錢的最重要因素就是他有自己的持續一致的信念。
同意 不同意
25. If you were granted a wish to be able to instantaneously acquire one trading skill, what skill would you choose?
25. 如果你現在許願得到一個交易技術，這個許願能被立刻實現，你會選擇什麽技術？
26. I often spend sleepless nights worrying about the market.
Agree Disagree
29. 我經常因為擔心市場而失眠。
同意 不同意
27. Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out?
Yes No
30. 你是否會因為擔心錯過交易而逼自己去交易？
是 否
28. Although it doesn’t happen very often, I really like my trades to be perfect. When I make a perfect call it feels so good that it makes up for all of the times that I don’t.
Agree Disagree
31. 我非常喜歡完美的交易，雖然這事不會經常發生。當我做了一筆完美的交易，我非常高興，過去的痛苦都可以被彌補。
同意 不同意
29. Do you ever find yourself planning trades you never execute, and executing trades you never planned?
Yes No
29. 你是否做了計劃不交易，交易的卻是沒有計劃的？
是 否
30. In a few sentences explain why most traders either don’t make money or aren’t able to keep what they make.
用幾句話解釋為什麽大部分交易者要麽不能賺錢，要麽不能守住利潤。
                                                                    

[sar]

you are one of the nicest guys I have ever seen.wish you the best you deserve.

[whzdf]

謝謝！